A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS Slobodan P. Simonović Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western

A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLINGWATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS

Slobodan P. SimonovićDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

The University of Western OntarioLondon, Ontario, Canada

WEF ModellingConclusions2|

• WEF nexus• New challenges• High level of integration• High level of complexity• Common concerns

• Systems approach • Modelling of the whole system• System dynamics simulation (and optimization)

• Modelling of various scales• Global• Regional• ….

• ANEMI model example

Exeter, 2012Slobodan P. Simonović

WEF ModellingOutline3|

• Challenges of the new/old context• Integration• Systems approach • Example

• ANEMI model• Lessons learned

• Conclusions


WEF ContextDefinitions4|• Nexus?

• A center point of something!• A center of various connections!

• Water, energy and food – pillars of global security, prosperity and equity

• Perspectives• Water perspective – food and energy systems are users of resources• Food perspective – water and energy are inputs • Energy perspective – water is the input and food is the output

• Vast individual areas• Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions


WEF ContextChallenges5|

• Water-Energy-Food common concerns• Access to services• Environmental impacts• Price volatility

• Growing population• Poverty• Health

• Climate change• Mitigation – energy• Adaptation – land and water

• Management • Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency• Study of the whole complex system• Understanding interactions – it is all about feedbacks

• Scale• 1.4 billion people without access to electricity• 3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating• 900 million people without access to safe drinking water• 2.6 billion do not have sanitation• 900 million people are chronically hungry• 2 billion people lack food security


WEF ModellingSystems approach7|

• Consideration of all three areas together• Systems view

• Complexity• Whole system approach• Difficult to translate into government policy making processes

• System structure• Feedbacks• System behavior


WEF ModellingExample ANEMI8|

• NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 – 2007) ANEMI ver 1• NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 – 2011) ANEMI ver 2• Project objectives

i. To develop system dynamics-based model of society-biosphere-climate system

ii. To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities.

iii. To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs.

• Interdisciplinary team• Systems modelling – engineering• Climate policy – geography and political science• Economics – economics

• Partners• Environment Canada• Natural Resources Canada• Department of Finance• Department of Fisheries and Oceans• Department of Agriculture



• Selection of the methodological approach• First workshop • ANEMI model development

• Structure• Sectors• Preliminary results

• Identification of key issues• Communication with the project

collaborators• Selection of simulation scenarios

• Second workshop • ANEMI model expansion

• Economy-energy integration• Model regionalization

• Model use• Scenario analyses• Model limitations

• Third workshop • Model transfer• Future work


Water stress Effects: Canada

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Time (Year)

Wat

er S

tres

s E

ffec

ts (d

imen

sion

less

)

Base Condition 2 degree with transfer3 degree with transfer 4 degree with transfer2 degree 3 degree4 degree


Carbon

Climate

+

+

Land Use

+

+

Population

Energy-Economy

Surface Flow

-

+

+ Water QualityWater Demand

−

−

+

+

+

+

−

−

Food Production

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

+

Clearing and Burning

Land Use Emissions

Temperature

Atmospheric CO2

Water Stress

Surface Water

Availability

Water Consumption

Temperature

Consumption and Labour

GDP per capita

WastewaterTreatment

WastewaterReuse

WastewaterTreatment and Reuse

Water use Intensity

Industrial emission

Water use efficiency

Pollution Index

Per capita food

Water Stress

Arable Land

Agricultural allocation

Emission Index

Fertility

+

Temperature

1. Carbon cycle

2. Climate

3. Water Use

4. Water Quality

5. Surface Flow

6. Population

7. Land Use

8. Food Production

9. Energy-Economy


WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Stock and flow diagrams11|


WEF ModellingExample ANEMI - Equations12|


Available water resources Two stocks (oceans and land surface) Flows (evaporation, evapotranspiration, advection, precipitation,

snow and ice melt, percolation, ocean runoff)

dtPAdvEA OMM

dtPPETAdvA SRL dtGPSFETPLS R dtEMPGDSFO MO

dtGDGPGS

dtMPIS S

feedbackMM TEE 0

100/10 advAdvAdv

00

M

MOO AAPP

wlSLR CPPP

gwCLSLSGPGP

00

GWGSGSGDGD

00

WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Simulation & optimization13|


WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – global and regional14|

• Global model• Regional model – Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW)


WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – policy scenarios15|

• Policy communication process• Set of interviews• Identification of policy questions by the research team• Identification of scenarios

• Initial set of scenarios• Carbon pricing• Economic growth rate• Water pricing• North American water stress• Irrigation• Energy subsidies and pricing• Land use change

• Final choice• Carbon tax• Increased water use• Food production increase


WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (global)16|

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

1011

GJ

Time

Energy Used for Electricity Production

Base

With Tax

0

100

200

300

400

500

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

GD

P (

trill

ion

$)

Time

GDP

With Tax

Base

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

pp

m)

Time

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

With Tax

Base


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Pop

ula

tion

(B

illio

n)

Time

Global Population

With Tax

Base

WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (global)17|

15200

15300

15400

15500

15600

15700

15800

15900

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Surf

ace

wat

er (

km^3

)

Time

Available Surface Water

Water use increaseBase

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Wat

er S

tres

s (d

imen

sion

less

)

Time

Water Stress

Water use increase

Base

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Foo

d(t

rilli

on k

iloca

lori

e /y

r)

Time

Food Production

Water use increaseBase


4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Pop

ula

tion

(B

illio

n)

Time

Global Population

Water use increase

Base

WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (global)18|

15200

15300

15400

15500

15600

15700

15800

15900

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Su

rfac

e w

ater

(k

m^

3)

Time

Available Surface Water

Increase in food production

Base

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CO

2co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

pp

m)

Time

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Increase in food productionBase

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Po

pu

lati

on

(B

illi

on

)

Time

Global Population

Increase in food production

Base


WEF ModellingExample ANEMI – conclusions19|

• WEF nexus• New challenges• High level of integration• High level of complexity• Common concerns

• Systems approach • Modelling of the whole system• System dynamics simulation (and optimization)

• Modelling of various scales• Global• Regional• ….

• ANEMI model example


WEF ModellingResources20|

• Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006). “Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?”, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp.431-433.

• Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2712-1; (online) 978-0-7714-2713-8.

• Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010). “ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change”, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3):127-161.

• M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2896-8; (online) 978-0-7714-2903-3.

• Davise, E.G.R. and S.P. Simonovic (2011). “(2011) “Water Resources and Integrated Assessment Modeling – the ANEMI Model”, Advances in Water Resources (available online: 18 February 2011), 34:684-700.

• www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fidsExeter, 2012

Slobodan P. Simonović

http://www.eng.uwo.ca/research/iclr/fids/publications/products/63.pdf




http://www.slobodansimonovic.com/

Documents

A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS Slobodan P. Simonović Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western