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2
A tops down approach to heliostat cost
J. Larmuth, W. Landman and P. Gauché
TIA Helio 100 Project, University of Stellenbosch
Solar Thermal Energy Research Group (STERG), University of Stellenbosch
3
• Heliostat cost reduction • Tops down approach • Cost road map • Landing zone • Cost model template • Results
4
4
LCOE breakdown for a central receiver CSP plant in South Africa (IRENA 2012)
100MW Tower
15hr Storage
5
5
Total installed cost for a central receiver CSP plant in South Africa (IRENA 2012)
100MW Tower
15hr Storage
7
Conceptual Design
Final Design
Cost Roadmap
Landing Zone
Cost Model Template
Industrialisation and
Quantitative Cost
Reduction
Time bound cost targets
Cost and performance budget
Component cost and Performance Tracking
Existing Quantitative Methods
8
8
$75/m2
$100/m2
$215/m2
$545
$273/m2
$120/m2
$85/m2
64
128
256
512
1024
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Co
st (
log:
$/m
2)
2011 SunShot Goal $100 Goal
Helio 100 Target Low Voume Costs
Technology Learning Cost Reductions
10
10
$75/m2
$100/m2
$215/m2
$545
$273/m2
$85/m2
64
128
256
512
1024
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Co
st (
log:
$/m
2)
2011 SunShot Goal $100 Goal
Helio 100 Target Low Voume Costs
Technology Learning Cost Reductions
11
11
$75/m2
$100/m2
$215/m2
$545
$273/m2
$120/m2
$85/m2
40 m2
200 m2
1
10
100
1 000
10 000
100 000
1 000 000
64
128
256
512
1024
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
An
nu
al P
rod
uct
ion
Vo
lum
e (l
og:
m2
/yea
r)
Co
st (
log:
$/m
2)
2011 SunShot Goal $100 Goal
Helio 100 Target H40 Low Voume Cost
Technology Learning Cost Reductions Production Volume (m2/year) with 12.00 % Learning Rate
Expon. (Production Cost ($/m2) with 12.00 % Learning Rate) Expon. (Production Cost ($/m2) with 17.50 % Learning Rate)
Expon. (Production Volume (m2/year) with 12.00 % Learning Rate) Expon. (Production Volume (m2/year) with 17.50 % Learning Rate)
12
12
Drive 1(Azimuth)
Drive 2(Elevation)
MirrorSupport
Structure
Controlsand
Cabling
ElevationAssembly
DirectHeliosatSupport
MirrorModule
PedestalAlignment
andCheckout
FieldWiring
Foundation
High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-
H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
ost
s ($
/m2
20
14
USD
)
Co
mp
on
ent
Co
sts
($/m
2 2
01
4 U
SD)
13
13
Drive 1(Azimuth)
Drive 2(Elevation)
MirrorSupport
Structure
Controlsand
Cabling
ElevationAssembly
DirectHeliosatSupport
MirrorModule
PedestalAlignment
andCheckout
FieldWiring
Foundation
High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-
H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
ost
s ($
/m2
20
14
USD
)
Co
mp
on
ent
Co
sts
($/m
2 2
01
4 U
SD)
14
14
ATS
Heliostat HI Heliostat
SAIC SM
Heliostat BSE Heliostat
DLR Novel
Heliostat
Confidence
Published Data
(Unproven)
Published Data
(Unproven)
Published Data
(Unproven)
Unproven (DLR
Estimate)
Aspirational
DLR Estimate
Production Rate 5 000/yr. 1000 units 2000/yr. - -
Direct Cost/Area $130.22 $129.72 $181.83 $124.37 $90.12
Mirror Module $28.31 $33.01 $46.92 $16.44 $16.44
Mirror Support Structure $24.91 $7.16 $83.36 $39.73 $28.77
Elevation Assembly $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $6.85 $13.70
Drive 1 (Azimuth) $27.41 $30.02 $18.43 $28.77 $2.74
Drive 2 (Elevation) $27.41 $30.02 $18.43 $8.22 $2.74
Controls and Cabling † $2.23 $24.68 $2.62 $8.84 $10.21
Pedestal $19.94 $4.83 $12.06 $15.53 $15.53
Direct Heliostat Support $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Field Costs $18.88 $26.96 $32.02 $57.84 $57.84
Foundation $2.74 $2.41 $18.92 $7.76 $7.76
Field Wiring $8.70 $15.31 $7.26 $14.73 $14.73
Alignment and Checkout $7.45 $9.23 $5.85 $35.35 $35.35
Total Installed Cost $149.10 $156.68 $213.85 $182.21 $147.96
15
15
Drive 1(Azimuth)
Drive 2(Elevation)
MirrorSupport
Structure
Controlsand
Cabling
ElevationAssembly
DirectHeliosatSupport
MirrorModule
PedestalAlignment
andCheckout
FieldWiring
Foundation
High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-
Target $47 $46 $23 $29 $18 $18 $19 $15 $5 $- $-
Outstanding $30 $30 $17 $20 $15 $12 $18 $8 $5 $- $-
H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278
Target Cumulative $47 $93 $116 $145 $163 $181 $200 $215 $220 $220 $220
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
ost
s ($
/m2
20
14
USD
)
Co
mp
on
ent
Co
sts
($/m
2 2
01
4 U
SD)
16
16
Drive 1(Azimuth
)
Drive 2(Elevatio
n)
MirrorSupportStructure
Controlsand
Cabling
ElevationAssembl
y
DirectHeliosatSupport
MirrorModule
Pedestal
Alignment and
Checkout
FieldWiring
Foundation
High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-
Target $47 $46 $23 $29 $18 $18 $19 $15 $5 $- $-
H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278
Target Cumulative $47 $93 $116 $145 $163 $181 $200 $215 $220 $220 $220
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Cum
ula
tive C
osts
($/m
2 2
014 U
SD
)
Com
ponent
Costs
($/m
2 2
014 U
SD
)
17
17
Drive 1(Azimuth)
Drive 2(Elevatio
n)
MirrorSupportStructure
Controlsand
Cabling
ElevationAssembly
DirectHeliosatSupport
MirrorModule
PedestalAlignmen
t andCheckout
FieldWiring
Foundation
High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-
Target $47 $46 $23 $29 $18 $18 $19 $15 $5 $- $-
Aspirational $21 $21 $16 $23 $11 $17 $17 $2 $5 $0 $0
H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278
Target Cumulative $47 $93 $116 $145 $163 $181 $200 $215 $220 $220 $220
Aspirational Cumulative $21 $43 $59 $82 $93 $110 $127 $128 $133 $133 $133
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Cum
ula
tive C
osts
($/m
2 2
014 U
SD
)
Com
ponent
Costs
($/m
2 2
014 U
SD
)
18
18
Current Cost Target Cost Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3
Production Rate 20/yr. 20 000/yr. 20 000/yr.
Direct Cost/Area $545 $273 $215
Mirror Module $33 $20 $20
Mirror Support Structure $110 $32 $22
Elevation Assembly $55 $28 $18
Drive 1 (Azimuth) $114 $68 $47
Drive 2 (Elevation) $69 $49 $46
Controls and Cabling $54 $31 $29
Pedestal $54 $17 $15
Direct Heliostat Support $56 $28 $18
Field Costs $6 $5 $5
Foundation $0 $0 $0
Field Wiring $0 $0 $0
Alignment and Checkout $6 $5 $5
Total Installed Cost $551 $278 $220
19
Departure Point
Project Traget
BSE Cost Current Cost
Aspirational Cost
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2014-03-02 2014-04-21 2014-06-10 2014-07-30 2014-09-18 2014-11-07 2014-12-27
20
20
(Brightsource, 2013) (Google,
2011)
(Japan Solar Techno
2012)
(eSolar, 2013) (Pfahl, 2013) (Kolb,2007))
Cost/m2
22
𝜎𝑇𝑜𝑡2 = 𝜎𝐴𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟
2 + 𝜎𝑆𝑢𝑛2 + 𝜎𝐵𝑄
2 + (2𝜎𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑘)2
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
SecondaryAxis NVE
Primary AxisNVE
Beam QualityErrors
TotalSecondaryAxis Error
TotalPrimary Axis
Error
Total BeamQuality Error
Total OpticalError
No
rma
l Ve
cto
r E
rro
r [
mra
d]
Drive 1 (Azimuth) Drive 2 (Elevation) Controls and Cabling
Mirror Module Elevation Assembly Direct Heliostat Support
Mirror Support Structure Pedestal Total Secondary Axis Error
Total Tracking Error Total Primary Axis Error Total Beam Quality Error
23
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Drive 1(Azimuth)
Drive 2(Elevation)
Controls andCabling
DirectHeliostatSupport
ElevationAssembly
Pedestal
No
rma
l Ve
cto
r E
rro
r [m
rad
]
Co
mp
on
en
t C
ost
($
/m
2)
- 2
01
3
Component Cost Component NVE
24
Departure Point
Project Target
BSE Cost Current Cost
Aspirational Cost
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2014-03-02 2014-04-21 2014-06-10 2014-07-30 2014-09-18 2014-11-07 2014-12-27
25
Low Volume Costs < 100 units p.a
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
H40 Invoiced H100 Pilot
Co
mp
on
ent
Co
sts
($/m
2 )
Direct Heliosat Support
Pedestal
Controls and Cabling
Drive 2 (Elevation)
Drive 1 (Azimuth)
Elevation Assembly
Mirror Support Structure
Mirror Module
26
Volume Costs 20 000 units p.a.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
H40 Heliopod H100
Co
mp
on
ent
Co
sts
($/m
2 )
Alignment and Checkout
Direct Heliostat Support
Pedestal
Controls and Cabling
Drive 2 (2nd Axis)
Drive 1 (1st Axis)
Elevation Assembly
Mirror Support Structure
Mirror Module
27
Volume Costs 20 000 units p.a.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
H40 Heliopod H100
Co
mp
on
ent
Co
sts
($/m
2 )
Alignment and Checkout
Direct Heliostat Support
Pedestal
Controls and Cabling
Drive 2 (2nd Axis)
Drive 1 (1st Axis)
Elevation Assembly
Mirror Support Structure
Mirror Module
Aspirational Costs
Conservative Cost
28
• Heliostat cost is complex and inexact science • This method provides a convenient approach during
early design phase • Allows for continuous cost learning through the design
process • Realises $150/m2 heliostat cost
29
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
CONTACT DETAILS:
visit us: concentrating.sun.ac.za
Solar Thermal Energy Research Group (STERG) Stellenbosch University South Africa
James N. Larmuth
[email protected] +27 (0)21 808 4016
30
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Secondary AxisNVE
Primary AxisNVE
Beam QualityErrors
TotalSecondary Axis
Error
Total PrimaryAxis Error
Total BeamQuality Error
Total OpticalError
No
rma
l V
ect
or
Err
or
[m
rad
]
Drive 1 (Azimuth) Drive 2 (Elevation) Controls and Cabling
Mirror Module Elevation Assembly Direct Heliostat Support
Mirror Support Structure Pedestal Total Secondary Axis Error
Total Optical Error Total Primary Axis Error Total Beam Quality Error