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a) Transformation method (for continuous distributions)
U(0,1) : uniform distributionf(x) : arbitrary distribution
f(x) dx = U(0,1)(u) du
When inverse function of integral, F-1(u), is known, then x = F-1(u) distributed according to f(x)
Example: Exponential distribution
4. MC Methods 4.2 Generators for arbitrary distributions
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
x
uF(x)f(t)dt
λxλeλ)f(x; 0x x
λt λx
0
u λe dt 1 e 1x F (u)= -ln(1-u)/λ
b) Transformation method (discrete distributions)
4. MC Methods 4.2 Generators for arbitrary distributions
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
k
1ii1k )P(xP 1P0,P 1n1
c) Hit-or-miss method (brute force)
Uniform distr. fr. 0 to c: ui
Uniform distr. from xmin to xmax: xi
when ui ≤ f(xi) → accept xi, otherwise not
- two random numbers per try
- inefficient when f(x) « c
- need to (conservatively) estimate c (maximum of f(x))
(can be done in “warm-up” run)
4. MC Methods 4.2 Generators for arbitrary distributions
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
Improvement:
- search for analytical function s(x) close to f(x)
- use c so that c • s(x) >f(x) for all x
1ix S (u)
x
S(x): s(t)dt
1. take ui in [0,1] and calculate xi = S-1 (ui)
2. take uj in [0,c]
3. when uj • s(xi) ≤ f(xi) accept xi, otherwise not
b
a
I g(x)dxsearch for:
4. MC Methods 4.3 Monte Carlo Integration
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
Integration over one dimension:
(E[g] = expectation value of g w.r.t. uniform distribution)
Take xi uniformly distributed in [a,b] →
n
1iiMC )g(x
n
abII
2
i2i2
i2ii n
g
n
g]E[g]E[g]V[g
b
a
1I g(x)dx (b a)E gb a
b a
2 2n n2
MC I i i ii 1 i 1
b a b a (b a)V[I ] σ V g V[ g ] V[g ]
n n n
Variance:
(CLT)
4. MC Methods 4.3 Monte Carlo Integration
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
Alternative: hit-or-miss integration
- Variance of r(x): will be small when r is flat, so f ≈ g
- The method takes care of (integrable) singularities
(find f(x) with has the same singularity structure as g(x))
xi distributed as f(x)
4. MC Methods 4.3 Monte Carlo Integration
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
Variance-reduced methods
a) importance sampling:
If f(x) is a known p.d.f., which could be integrated and inverted, then:
r(x)Ef(x)
g(x)Ef(x)dx
f(x)
g(x)g(x)dxI
b
a
b
a
2ii )r(rE]V[r
n
1i i
iMC )f(x
)g(x
n
abI
Expectation value of r(x) can be obtained with random numbers, which is distributed according to f(x):
4. MC Methods 4.3 Monte Carlo Integration
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
b) Control function
(subtraction of an integrable analytical function)
dxf(x)g(x)f(x)dxg(x)dx
analytical MC
c) Partitioning
(split integration range into several more „flat“ regions)
let x be a random variable distributed according to f(x)
n independent “measurements” of x, x = (x1,…,xn) is sample of a distribution f(x) of size n (outcome of an experiment)
x = itself is a random variable with p.d.f. fsample (x)
sample space: all possible values of x = (x1,…,xn)
If all xi are independent
fsample(x) = f(x1)•f(x2)• … •f(xn)
is the p.d.f. for x
5. Estimation 5.1 Sample space, Estimators
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
A central problem of (frequentist) statistics:
Find the properties of f(x) when only a sample x = (x1,…,xn) has been measured
Task: construct functions of xi to estimate the properties of f(x)(e.g. μ, σ2, …)
Often f depends on parameters θj : f(xi;θj) try to estimate the parameters θj from measured sample x
Functions of (xi) are called a statistic.
If a statistic is used to estimate parameters (μ, σ2, θ, …), it called an estimator
Notation: is an estimator for θ
can be calculated; true value θ is unknown
Estimation of p.d.f. parameters is also called a fit
5. Estimation 5.1 Sample Space, Estimators
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
in simple words: n→∞ θ →
2.Bias:
itself is a random variable, distributed according to a p.d.f.
This p.d.f. is called the sampling distribution
Expectation value of the sampling distribution:
(or “ “)
1 Consistency:
an estimator is consistent if for each ε > 0 :
5. Estimation 5.2 Properties of Estimators
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
0ε|θθ|Plimn
θθlimn
)x,...,(xθ 21 θ);θg(
1 n 1 nˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆE θ(x) θ(x) g(θ,θ) dθ(x) ... θ(x) f(x ;θ)...f(x ;θ)dx ...dx
1ˆ ˆg(θ(x ,...,x ))dθ f(x )dxn i ibecause
5. Estimation 5.2 Properties of estimators
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
The bias of an estimator is defined as
An estimator is unbiased (or bias-free) if b=0
An estimator is asymptotically unbiased if
Attentions Consistent: for large sample size
Unbiased: for fixed sample size
3. Efficiency:
One estimator is more efficient than another if its variance is smaller,
or more precise if its mean squared error (MSE) is smaller
ˆE[ ]
θθ
0b limn
ˆb E[ ]
2 2ˆ ˆE (θ-θ) MSE V[θ] b
2 2 2 2 2 2 2ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆE (θ-θ) E[θ ]-2θE[θ] θ E[θ ] b E[θ] V[θ] b
2 2 2 2b (E[θ] θ) E[θ] 2θE[θ] θ
2ˆE ( - )
and
5. Estimation 5.2 Properties of estimators
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
4. Robustness
An estimator is robust if it does not strongly depend on single measurements(which might be systematically wrong)
5. Simplicity
(subjective)
5. Estimation 5.3 Estimation of the mean
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
n
1ix
n
1xx
In principle one can construct an arbitrary number of different esitmatorsfor the mean value of a pdf, = E[x]
Examples:
mean of the sample
10
i1
1x x
10mean of the first ten members of the sample
n
i1
1x x x
n-1
x 42
x = median of the sample
max minx xx =
2
all have different (wanted and unwanted)properties
5. Estimation 5.3 Estimation of the mean
K. Desch – Statistical methods of data analysis SS10
The mean of a sample provides an estimate of the true mean:
a) is consistent:
CLT: p.d.f. of approaches Gaussian with variance
b) is unbiased
c) Is efficient ?
n
1ix
n
1xx
i
1 1E[x] E x (n )
n n
2
i2
n
xE)(E]xV[]θV[ xxx
2
i 2 2j i2 2
x 1 1 1 1E E(x ) E (x ) nV[x] σ
n n n n n
0j)cov(i,
x
x
x
x2 2x x
10 for n
n