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Merrill Lynch Pan-LatAm Conference
March 2008
A vintage time
2
“This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements, and Vale cannot give assurance that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors: relating to the Brazilian and Canadian economies and securities markets, which exhibit volatility and can be adversely affected by developments in other countries; relating to the iron ore and nickel businesses and their dependence on the global steel industry, which is cyclical in nature; and relating to the highly competitive industries in which Vale operates. For additional information on factors that could cause Vale’s actual results to differ from expectations reflected in forward-looking statements, please see Vale’s reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
Disclaimer
3
Agenda
A remarkable growth history
A successful investment performance
Confidence in the future
4
A remarkable growth history
5
2007: another vintage year
Outstanding operational performance: nine
production records
Outstanding financial performance: record
revenue, operational profit, net earnings, cash
generation, dividend per share and investment
6
1.5482.573
4.841
11.825
7.260
30.7%
38.7%42.5%
44.2%41.2%
2003 2004 2005 2006² 2007
Net earnings (US$ billion) adjusted EBIT margin (%)¹
Sustained high performance over time
1 excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment² pro forma figures
CAGR: 66.2%
7
High operational margin across-the-board
47.9%
47.1%
31.2%
24.0%
Ferrous minerals
Non ferrous minerals¹
Aluminum
Logistics
Operational margin2007
1 excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment
8
Iron ore and pellets44.7%
Nickel30.3%
Copper6.0%
Manganese and
ferroalloys1.9%
Aluminum8.2%
Logistics4.6%
Others4.3%
Sales diversification by products, origin and destination
Revenues - US$ 33.1 billion2007
By productBrazil
16.0%
Americas ex-Brazil17.5%
China17.7%
Europe22.1%
Row4.1%
Asia ex-China22.6%
By destination
Brazil61.5%
North America27.6%
Asia8.5%
Australia0.5%
Europe1.9%
By origin
9
Powerful cash flow generation originated from a well-balanced portfolio of bulks and exchange-traded metals
Adjusted EBITDAUS$ billion
CAGR: 67.7%
1 pro forma figures, excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment2 excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment
2.1303.722
6.540
12.397
16.836
2003 2004 2005 2006¹ 2007²
Ferrous minerals47.3%Logistics
3.7%
Aluminum5.8%
Non ferrous minerals43.2%
Cash generationcomposition
20072
10
16,836(870)
(351)(680)
(364)(210)(204)(122)1,490
5,750
12,397
Prices and sales volumes were instrumental to EBITDA growth. The USD depreciation and cost inflation continued to pressure our cash flow
2006 2007
SG&A
Price
VolumeR&D
US$ millionVale adjusted EBITDA
Dividendsreceived
∆ FX
Cost inflation
Non cash Volume
costs1
1 cost rise derived from production increase
11
Record production of the world’s best iron ore: 295.9 Mt.
Record shipments: 296.4 Mt.
Leading supplier to China
Sales with global reach – all five continents.
Global price settler for the seventh consecutive year.
Iron ore: unrivaled global scale and scope
65% rise for Southern and Southeastern Systems ores.
US$ 0.0619 per Fe unit dmtupremium for Carajás ores.
2008 fines prices
12
Vale is the uncontested leader of the global iron ore market…
Vale
Rio Tinto
BHP Billiton
Anglo American
2007
2006
Iron ore productionmillion metric tons
+9%
+4%
+4%
300 Mt150 Mt
+12%
13
Norilsk
Vale
BHP
Xstrata
Anglo
2007
2006
… and the second largest nickel producer
Nickel production‘000 metric tons
21.0%
300 kt150 kt
+5.6%
-1.0%
-0.1%
-6.2%
¹
¹ Norilsk has acquired Lion Ore and OMX in 2007. Excluding acquisitions, its nickel production would decline by 3.9%
14
Capability to generate value through acquisition growth: successful integration of Vale Inco
Introducing discipline in capital allocation and our standards of relationship with communities and environmental protection
Exploitation of synergies: Sudbury Basin, global procurement andmineral exploration
Record nickel production: 247,900 metric tons
Totten: the first project to be developed in the Sudbury Basin over the last 30 years
Creighton Deep: reserves increase at Sudbury
15
Successful integration: the development of Goro
Compliant with EU
safety and environment
standards
Construction of Prony
Bay port and power
plant concluded
All relevant equipment
already installed
December 2006
December 2007
16
Successful integration: the development of Goro
Operation license expected for June 2008
First autoclave expected to start-up in October
Production to start-up by year end
Opportunity for a low cost brownfield project
17
A successful investment performance
18
A strong track record of project delivery, providing new value-creation vehicles
1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q071Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07
Funil
Alunorte 3
Carajás
70 Mtpy
Sossego
Candonga
Aimorés
Alunorte 4&5
São Luís
Trombetas
Capão Xavier
Pier III PDM
Mo I Rana
Fábrica Nova
Taquari-Vassouras
Capim Branco I
Brucutu
Carajás 85 Mtpy
Carajás 100 Mtpy
Capim Branco II
Paragominas I
19
A proven track record of successful acquisitions - US$ 25 billion over the last years
ConsolidationConsolidationof of ironiron ore ore leadershipleadership
BecomingBecoming a a global global leaderleader
in in nickelnickel
Growth Growth plataformplataform in in
coalcoal
20
Dealing with the growth trilemma: financing growth and distributing dividends…
1.988 2.092
4.998
11.004
20.628
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0.150.17
0.29
0.39
0.27
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Financing high growth capex1
US$ billionReturning capital to shareholders
Dividend per shareUS$ per shareCAGR 26.8%
1 Capex figures includes acquisitions and are based on cash disbursements
21
… while maintaining a sound balance sheet and a low-risk debt portfolio
4.2 4.2 3.95.0
6.1 5.9 5.9
22.623.5
19.1 18.3 19.01.1
0.8
0.70.8
0.80.8
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.9
1.3
2.0
1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07
Total debt - US$ billion¹
Total debt/LTM EBITDA (x)¹
¹ at end of quarter, excluding inventory adjustment.
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q075.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
Average cost of debt Average debt maturity
Debt cost and maturityDebt and leverage
% Years
10.7
6.1
7.9
6.7
4Q07 4Q07
22
5.47.5
11.1
48.0
31.246.8%
54.7%
64.4%
39.4%
54.3%
2003 2004 2005 2006³ 2007³
Capital invested US$ billion
ROIC %
Our investment program is anchored on a good track record of discipline on capital allocation
¹ PP&E + working capital + R&D2 before income taxes3 excludes effect of extraordinary inventory adjustments
Return on capital invested
1
2
23
24.5%
25.8%
50.6%
53.3%
54.6%
23.2%
23.2%
20.8%
20.7%
20.1%Boeing
Toyota
Endesa
BHP Billiton
Anglo American
Genentech
British American Tobacco
Apple
América Móvil
Vale
The large-cap Top Ten Total shareholder return2 (TSR)
2002-2006
1 Boston Consulting Group “The 2007 Value Creators report”. Large cap = companies with market cap above US$ 50 billion 2 TSR average between 2002 and 2006
# 1 in the globe in shareholder value creation among large-caps1
Vale
24
73.7%
65.4%
46.3%
43.4%
36.3%AngloAmerican
Rio Tinto
BHP Billiton
Xstrata
Vale
Source: Bloomberg
The best performance among large mining companies
Total shareholder return1 (TSR)2003-2007
¹TSR average between 2003 and 2007
25
Organic growth continues: the largest capexin the mining industry in 2007
Ferrous minerals22.9%
Coal2.2%
Power generation
2.2%
Steel3.7%
Others3.9%
Logistics12.8%
Aluminum11.3%
Non ferrous minerals41.0%
2007 - US$ 7.6 billion
Ferrous minerals29.6%
Coal3.5%
Power generation
4.3%
Steel0.7%
Others5.1%
Logistics17.0%
Aluminum6.9%
Non ferrous minerals32.9%
Total capex by business area
2008E - US$ 11.0 billion
26
Iron ore & pelletsNickelCoalCopperBauxite & aluminaPhosphatesLogisticsPower generationSteelBrownfield
Greenfield
2008 2010
Goro
2009 2011 2012
Reference
US$ 1 billion
Onça Puma
Itabiritos
Fazendão
Alunorte 6&7
Paragominas II
Papomono
Carajás 130 Mtpy
Southern Corridor
Carborough Downs
Equatorial
Barcarena
Salobo I
Tubarão VIII
Oman
Estreito
Bayovar
Karebbe
Voisey’s Bay
Paragominas III
Serra SulNAR
Moatize
Litoranea
Totten
Maquiné-Baú
Vermelho
Eastern Range
CSA
CSVSetentrional
UHC
Shaping the future: investing US$ 59 billion over the next five years
27
Execution of the organic growth pipeline will give rise to a significant production expansion
2007 2008E ∆% 2012E CAGR
08-12
Iron ore 296 325 9.8% 422 7.4%
Pellets¹ 18 20 13.6% 33 13.4%
Nickel2 248 280 12.9% 507 15.4%
Copper² 284 300 5.6% 592 15.8%
Alumina 4.3 5.3 23.3% 8.2 13.8%
Coal 2.2 5.6 154.5% 15 46.8%
million metric tons
¹ does not include production of JVs (Samarco, Nibrasco, Hispanobras, Kobrasco, Itabrasco). Samarco 3rd pellet plant (7.6 Mtpy) is coming on stream in 1H08.
² 1,000 metric tons3 Running at 450 Mtpy
3
28
Main iron ore projects
capex capacity start upUS$ million million metric tons
Fazendão 129 14 1H08
Carajás 130 2,478 30 2H09
Carajás Serra Sul 10,094 90 1H12
Maquiné-Baú 2,207 24 1H11
¹ Subject to approval by the Board of Directors
¹
¹
29
Main pellets projects
capex capacity start upUS$ million million metric tons
Itabiritos 973 7.0 2H08
Samarco 1,200 7.6 1H08
Tubarão VIII 636 7.5 2H10
Oman 546 9.0 1H10
¹ 50% owned by Vale. The total capex of the project is US$ 1.2 billion and it will be financed 100% by Samarco, with no disbursement from Vale2 Subject to approval by the Board of Directors
¹
2
30
Main nickel projects
capex capacity start upUS$ million ‘000 metric tons
Goro 3,212 60.0¹ 4Q08
Onça Puma 1,395 58.0² 1Q09
Vermelho 1,908 46.0 1H12
Totten 362 8.2³ 1H11
Voisey’s Bay Refinery4 2,177 50.0 2H11
¹ 4,600 tons of cobalt² 2,800 tons of cobalt³ 11,200 tons of copper and 82,000 oz of precious metals4 Subject to appoval by the Board of Directors
31
Main aluminum projects
capex capacity start upUS$ million ‘000 metric tons
Alunorte 6&7 846 6.3 3Q08
NAR 1,795 7.4 2Q11
Paragominas II 196 4.5 2Q08
Paragominas III 416 4.9 1H11
¹ Subject to approval by the Board of Directors2 The construction of stages 6 and 7 will raise the refinery’s production capacity to 6.26 million tons of alumina per year
¹
¹
2
32
Confidence in the future
33
Equity prices are forward-looking. Mining equity prices have been resilient to financial turmoil and our ADR (RIO) price decoupled
Equity pricesJuly 1, 2007 = 100
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
RIO MSCI World MSCI Metals & Mining
Sources: Bloomberg and Vale
Vale
34
Metal prices use to fall in anticipation of a global growth deceleration
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and Vale
LMEX index
Global growthbelow 3%
800
1,300
1,800
2,300
2,800
3,300
3,800
4,300
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
35
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
Source: LME
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-0823,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08
Aluminum priceUS$/metric ton
Copper priceUS$/metric ton
Nickel priceUS$/metric ton
Base metals prices have been resilient to signals of a slowdown in the US economy
36
Even after the benchmark price rise, iron ore spot prices continued to increase
Spot freight pricesBrazil-ChinaUS$/metric ton
Spot iron ore pricesUS$/metric ton
Sources: Mysteel, Clarksons
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-07 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07
Chinese iron ore spot Indian iron ore C&F
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-07 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Feb-0
215
205
69.6
37
Metallurgical coal prices
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08
US$/m
etr
ic t
on,
fob A
ust
ralia
Australian contract HCC fob Australian Spot HCC fob
Source: CRU
Strong demand growth and supply constraints produced soaring met coal prices
330
98
38
Emerging market economies are in the forefront of structural change with important implications on the demand for metals
Urbanization
– Housing
– Infrastructure
– Consumer durables
Industrialization
39
China to remain as the main driver of global materials demand
2000 2007 2011E
Iron ore¹ 15.4 49.0 54.0
Nickel² 4.9 24.2 31.0
Aluminum² 14.0 33.0 41.0
Copper² 12.7 26.3 30.0
Chinese share in global consumption%
¹ share of Chinese imports in seaborne trade² ending November 2007
Sources: WBMS and Vale
40
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
China Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan USA
China is much less sensitive to US cyclical gyrations than small export-oriented Asian economies…
GDP growth¹
¹ Shaded area represents a recession period as defined by the NBERSources: FMI, NBER and Vale
41
… as its economic growth has been driven by domestic demand
Chinese GDP growth composition
¹Vale estimatesSources: CEIC and Vale
0.8%
9.0%
9.8%
Netexports
Domesticdemand
GDPgrowth
1.0%
8.6%
9.6%
1.7%
9.7%
11.4%
1980-99 2000-06 2007¹
42
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E 2012E
China is still in the middle of a long-term economic development. It is expected to stay in the fast growth track and well-placed to deal with a global slowdown
Chinese GDP growth
Sources: IMF and Vale
CAGR1990–2006: 9.8%2003-2007: 10.7%2008-2012E: 9.2% 11.4%
10.4%
9.5%8.8% 8.7% 8.6%
43
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008E 2011E
Global GDP growth
Sources: IMF and Vale
We expect the global economy to remain on an above-average historical growth path driven by emerging market economies fast growth
CAGR1970–2006: 3.6%2003-2007E: 4.5%2008E-2012E: 4.0%
4.7%
3.6%
4.2%4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
44
On the supply side, several challenges constrain an adequate mining supply response to price incentives
Lack of large scale world-class projects
“Easy discoveries” are gone
Natural resources nationalism
Environmental permitting
Higher capex costs and shortages
Skilled labor
Technological challenges
45
Vale: a global leader