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1 Merrill Lynch Pan-LatAm Conference March 2008 A vintage time

A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Page 1: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

1

Merrill Lynch Pan-LatAm Conference

March 2008

A vintage time

Page 2: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

2

“This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements, and Vale cannot give assurance that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors: relating to the Brazilian and Canadian economies and securities markets, which exhibit volatility and can be adversely affected by developments in other countries; relating to the iron ore and nickel businesses and their dependence on the global steel industry, which is cyclical in nature; and relating to the highly competitive industries in which Vale operates. For additional information on factors that could cause Vale’s actual results to differ from expectations reflected in forward-looking statements, please see Vale’s reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”

Disclaimer

Page 3: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Agenda

A remarkable growth history

A successful investment performance

Confidence in the future

Page 4: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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A remarkable growth history

Page 5: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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2007: another vintage year

Outstanding operational performance: nine

production records

Outstanding financial performance: record

revenue, operational profit, net earnings, cash

generation, dividend per share and investment

Page 6: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

6

1.5482.573

4.841

11.825

7.260

30.7%

38.7%42.5%

44.2%41.2%

2003 2004 2005 2006² 2007

Net earnings (US$ billion) adjusted EBIT margin (%)¹

Sustained high performance over time

1 excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment² pro forma figures

CAGR: 66.2%

Page 7: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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High operational margin across-the-board

47.9%

47.1%

31.2%

24.0%

Ferrous minerals

Non ferrous minerals¹

Aluminum

Logistics

Operational margin2007

1 excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment

Page 8: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Iron ore and pellets44.7%

Nickel30.3%

Copper6.0%

Manganese and

ferroalloys1.9%

Aluminum8.2%

Logistics4.6%

Others4.3%

Sales diversification by products, origin and destination

Revenues - US$ 33.1 billion2007

By productBrazil

16.0%

Americas ex-Brazil17.5%

China17.7%

Europe22.1%

Row4.1%

Asia ex-China22.6%

By destination

Brazil61.5%

North America27.6%

Asia8.5%

Australia0.5%

Europe1.9%

By origin

Page 9: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Powerful cash flow generation originated from a well-balanced portfolio of bulks and exchange-traded metals

Adjusted EBITDAUS$ billion

CAGR: 67.7%

1 pro forma figures, excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment2 excluding extraordinary inventory adjustment

2.1303.722

6.540

12.397

16.836

2003 2004 2005 2006¹ 2007²

Ferrous minerals47.3%Logistics

3.7%

Aluminum5.8%

Non ferrous minerals43.2%

Cash generationcomposition

20072

Page 10: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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16,836(870)

(351)(680)

(364)(210)(204)(122)1,490

5,750

12,397

Prices and sales volumes were instrumental to EBITDA growth. The USD depreciation and cost inflation continued to pressure our cash flow

2006 2007

SG&A

Price

VolumeR&D

US$ millionVale adjusted EBITDA

Dividendsreceived

∆ FX

Cost inflation

Non cash Volume

costs1

1 cost rise derived from production increase

Page 11: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Record production of the world’s best iron ore: 295.9 Mt.

Record shipments: 296.4 Mt.

Leading supplier to China

Sales with global reach – all five continents.

Global price settler for the seventh consecutive year.

Iron ore: unrivaled global scale and scope

65% rise for Southern and Southeastern Systems ores.

US$ 0.0619 per Fe unit dmtupremium for Carajás ores.

2008 fines prices

Page 12: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Vale is the uncontested leader of the global iron ore market…

Vale

Rio Tinto

BHP Billiton

Anglo American

2007

2006

Iron ore productionmillion metric tons

+9%

+4%

+4%

300 Mt150 Mt

+12%

Page 13: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Norilsk

Vale

BHP

Xstrata

Anglo

2007

2006

… and the second largest nickel producer

Nickel production‘000 metric tons

21.0%

300 kt150 kt

+5.6%

-1.0%

-0.1%

-6.2%

¹

¹ Norilsk has acquired Lion Ore and OMX in 2007. Excluding acquisitions, its nickel production would decline by 3.9%

Page 14: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Capability to generate value through acquisition growth: successful integration of Vale Inco

Introducing discipline in capital allocation and our standards of relationship with communities and environmental protection

Exploitation of synergies: Sudbury Basin, global procurement andmineral exploration

Record nickel production: 247,900 metric tons

Totten: the first project to be developed in the Sudbury Basin over the last 30 years

Creighton Deep: reserves increase at Sudbury

Page 15: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Successful integration: the development of Goro

Compliant with EU

safety and environment

standards

Construction of Prony

Bay port and power

plant concluded

All relevant equipment

already installed

December 2006

December 2007

Page 16: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Successful integration: the development of Goro

Operation license expected for June 2008

First autoclave expected to start-up in October

Production to start-up by year end

Opportunity for a low cost brownfield project

Page 17: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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A successful investment performance

Page 18: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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A strong track record of project delivery, providing new value-creation vehicles

1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q071Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07

Funil

Alunorte 3

Carajás

70 Mtpy

Sossego

Candonga

Aimorés

Alunorte 4&5

São Luís

Trombetas

Capão Xavier

Pier III PDM

Mo I Rana

Fábrica Nova

Taquari-Vassouras

Capim Branco I

Brucutu

Carajás 85 Mtpy

Carajás 100 Mtpy

Capim Branco II

Paragominas I

Page 19: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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A proven track record of successful acquisitions - US$ 25 billion over the last years

ConsolidationConsolidationof of ironiron ore ore leadershipleadership

BecomingBecoming a a global global leaderleader

in in nickelnickel

Growth Growth plataformplataform in in

coalcoal

Page 20: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Dealing with the growth trilemma: financing growth and distributing dividends…

1.988 2.092

4.998

11.004

20.628

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0.150.17

0.29

0.39

0.27

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Financing high growth capex1

US$ billionReturning capital to shareholders

Dividend per shareUS$ per shareCAGR 26.8%

1 Capex figures includes acquisitions and are based on cash disbursements

Page 21: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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… while maintaining a sound balance sheet and a low-risk debt portfolio

4.2 4.2 3.95.0

6.1 5.9 5.9

22.623.5

19.1 18.3 19.01.1

0.8

0.70.8

0.80.8

0.7

1.1

1.2

1.9

1.3

2.0

1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07

Total debt - US$ billion¹

Total debt/LTM EBITDA (x)¹

¹ at end of quarter, excluding inventory adjustment.

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q075.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

Average cost of debt Average debt maturity

Debt cost and maturityDebt and leverage

% Years

10.7

6.1

7.9

6.7

4Q07 4Q07

Page 22: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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5.47.5

11.1

48.0

31.246.8%

54.7%

64.4%

39.4%

54.3%

2003 2004 2005 2006³ 2007³

Capital invested US$ billion

ROIC %

Our investment program is anchored on a good track record of discipline on capital allocation

¹ PP&E + working capital + R&D2 before income taxes3 excludes effect of extraordinary inventory adjustments

Return on capital invested

1

2

Page 23: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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24.5%

25.8%

50.6%

53.3%

54.6%

23.2%

23.2%

20.8%

20.7%

20.1%Boeing

Toyota

Endesa

BHP Billiton

Anglo American

Genentech

British American Tobacco

Apple

América Móvil

Vale

The large-cap Top Ten Total shareholder return2 (TSR)

2002-2006

1 Boston Consulting Group “The 2007 Value Creators report”. Large cap = companies with market cap above US$ 50 billion 2 TSR average between 2002 and 2006

# 1 in the globe in shareholder value creation among large-caps1

Vale

Page 24: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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73.7%

65.4%

46.3%

43.4%

36.3%AngloAmerican

Rio Tinto

BHP Billiton

Xstrata

Vale

Source: Bloomberg

The best performance among large mining companies

Total shareholder return1 (TSR)2003-2007

¹TSR average between 2003 and 2007

Page 25: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Organic growth continues: the largest capexin the mining industry in 2007

Ferrous minerals22.9%

Coal2.2%

Power generation

2.2%

Steel3.7%

Others3.9%

Logistics12.8%

Aluminum11.3%

Non ferrous minerals41.0%

2007 - US$ 7.6 billion

Ferrous minerals29.6%

Coal3.5%

Power generation

4.3%

Steel0.7%

Others5.1%

Logistics17.0%

Aluminum6.9%

Non ferrous minerals32.9%

Total capex by business area

2008E - US$ 11.0 billion

Page 26: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Iron ore & pelletsNickelCoalCopperBauxite & aluminaPhosphatesLogisticsPower generationSteelBrownfield

Greenfield

2008 2010

Goro

2009 2011 2012

Reference

US$ 1 billion

Onça Puma

Itabiritos

Fazendão

Alunorte 6&7

Paragominas II

Papomono

Carajás 130 Mtpy

Southern Corridor

Carborough Downs

Equatorial

Barcarena

Salobo I

Tubarão VIII

Oman

Estreito

Bayovar

Karebbe

Voisey’s Bay

Paragominas III

Serra SulNAR

Moatize

Litoranea

Totten

Maquiné-Baú

Vermelho

Eastern Range

CSA

CSVSetentrional

UHC

Shaping the future: investing US$ 59 billion over the next five years

Page 27: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Execution of the organic growth pipeline will give rise to a significant production expansion

2007 2008E ∆% 2012E CAGR

08-12

Iron ore 296 325 9.8% 422 7.4%

Pellets¹ 18 20 13.6% 33 13.4%

Nickel2 248 280 12.9% 507 15.4%

Copper² 284 300 5.6% 592 15.8%

Alumina 4.3 5.3 23.3% 8.2 13.8%

Coal 2.2 5.6 154.5% 15 46.8%

million metric tons

¹ does not include production of JVs (Samarco, Nibrasco, Hispanobras, Kobrasco, Itabrasco). Samarco 3rd pellet plant (7.6 Mtpy) is coming on stream in 1H08.

² 1,000 metric tons3 Running at 450 Mtpy

3

Page 28: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Main iron ore projects

capex capacity start upUS$ million million metric tons

Fazendão 129 14 1H08

Carajás 130 2,478 30 2H09

Carajás Serra Sul 10,094 90 1H12

Maquiné-Baú 2,207 24 1H11

¹ Subject to approval by the Board of Directors

¹

¹

Page 29: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Main pellets projects

capex capacity start upUS$ million million metric tons

Itabiritos 973 7.0 2H08

Samarco 1,200 7.6 1H08

Tubarão VIII 636 7.5 2H10

Oman 546 9.0 1H10

¹ 50% owned by Vale. The total capex of the project is US$ 1.2 billion and it will be financed 100% by Samarco, with no disbursement from Vale2 Subject to approval by the Board of Directors

¹

2

Page 30: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Main nickel projects

capex capacity start upUS$ million ‘000 metric tons

Goro 3,212 60.0¹ 4Q08

Onça Puma 1,395 58.0² 1Q09

Vermelho 1,908 46.0 1H12

Totten 362 8.2³ 1H11

Voisey’s Bay Refinery4 2,177 50.0 2H11

¹ 4,600 tons of cobalt² 2,800 tons of cobalt³ 11,200 tons of copper and 82,000 oz of precious metals4 Subject to appoval by the Board of Directors

Page 31: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Main aluminum projects

capex capacity start upUS$ million ‘000 metric tons

Alunorte 6&7 846 6.3 3Q08

NAR 1,795 7.4 2Q11

Paragominas II 196 4.5 2Q08

Paragominas III 416 4.9 1H11

¹ Subject to approval by the Board of Directors2 The construction of stages 6 and 7 will raise the refinery’s production capacity to 6.26 million tons of alumina per year

¹

¹

2

Page 32: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Confidence in the future

Page 33: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Equity prices are forward-looking. Mining equity prices have been resilient to financial turmoil and our ADR (RIO) price decoupled

Equity pricesJuly 1, 2007 = 100

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08

RIO MSCI World MSCI Metals & Mining

Sources: Bloomberg and Vale

Vale

Page 34: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Metal prices use to fall in anticipation of a global growth deceleration

Sources: Reuters Ecowin and Vale

LMEX index

Global growthbelow 3%

800

1,300

1,800

2,300

2,800

3,300

3,800

4,300

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

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2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08

Source: LME

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-0823,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08

Aluminum priceUS$/metric ton

Copper priceUS$/metric ton

Nickel priceUS$/metric ton

Base metals prices have been resilient to signals of a slowdown in the US economy

Page 36: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Even after the benchmark price rise, iron ore spot prices continued to increase

Spot freight pricesBrazil-ChinaUS$/metric ton

Spot iron ore pricesUS$/metric ton

Sources: Mysteel, Clarksons

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-07 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07

Chinese iron ore spot Indian iron ore C&F

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-07 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Feb-0

215

205

69.6

Page 37: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Metallurgical coal prices

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08

US$/m

etr

ic t

on,

fob A

ust

ralia

Australian contract HCC fob Australian Spot HCC fob

Source: CRU

Strong demand growth and supply constraints produced soaring met coal prices

330

98

Page 38: A vintage time - Vale · Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari-Vassouras Capim Branco I Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Carajás 100 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I. 19

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Emerging market economies are in the forefront of structural change with important implications on the demand for metals

Urbanization

– Housing

– Infrastructure

– Consumer durables

Industrialization

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China to remain as the main driver of global materials demand

2000 2007 2011E

Iron ore¹ 15.4 49.0 54.0

Nickel² 4.9 24.2 31.0

Aluminum² 14.0 33.0 41.0

Copper² 12.7 26.3 30.0

Chinese share in global consumption%

¹ share of Chinese imports in seaborne trade² ending November 2007

Sources: WBMS and Vale

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-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

China Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan USA

China is much less sensitive to US cyclical gyrations than small export-oriented Asian economies…

GDP growth¹

¹ Shaded area represents a recession period as defined by the NBERSources: FMI, NBER and Vale

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… as its economic growth has been driven by domestic demand

Chinese GDP growth composition

¹Vale estimatesSources: CEIC and Vale

0.8%

9.0%

9.8%

Netexports

Domesticdemand

GDPgrowth

1.0%

8.6%

9.6%

1.7%

9.7%

11.4%

1980-99 2000-06 2007¹

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0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E 2012E

China is still in the middle of a long-term economic development. It is expected to stay in the fast growth track and well-placed to deal with a global slowdown

Chinese GDP growth

Sources: IMF and Vale

CAGR1990–2006: 9.8%2003-2007: 10.7%2008-2012E: 9.2% 11.4%

10.4%

9.5%8.8% 8.7% 8.6%

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0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008E 2011E

Global GDP growth

Sources: IMF and Vale

We expect the global economy to remain on an above-average historical growth path driven by emerging market economies fast growth

CAGR1970–2006: 3.6%2003-2007E: 4.5%2008E-2012E: 4.0%

4.7%

3.6%

4.2%4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

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On the supply side, several challenges constrain an adequate mining supply response to price incentives

Lack of large scale world-class projects

“Easy discoveries” are gone

Natural resources nationalism

Environmental permitting

Higher capex costs and shortages

Skilled labor

Technological challenges

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Vale: a global leader