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A word about Data & Statistics. Question: Statistically speaking, which statement below is more likely to be correct? “42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.” - Steven Wright “97.3% of all statistics are made up.” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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A word about Data & Statistics
Question: Statistically speaking, which statement below is more likely to be correct?a) “42.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.” - Steven
Wright
b) “97.3% of all statistics are made up.”________________________________________________________________________________
-"Five out of four people have trouble with “statistics”" - Steven Wright
- "Statistics means never having to say you're certain."- “A statistician can have the head in an oven and the feet in ice, and s/he will say that on the average s/he feels fine.” _______________________________________________
"Statistics are no substitute for judgment." -- Henry Clay
1
Kalamazoo CMHSAS - Coord. Agency - Service area
2
SA Treatment Data in the Kazoo CA area (2011)
Source: TEDS 20113
CA Area0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%FY-2011 - SA Tx Data - Kazoo CA area
Alcohol
Coc.
mj
Heroin
Oth Opioid
Meth
Stim/Oth
SA Treatment Data in the Kazoo CA area (2011)
BarryBranch
CalhounCass
KazooS. Jo
e VBCA Area
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Alcohol
Coc.
mj
Heroin
Oth Opioid
Meth
Stim/Oth
Source: TEDS 20114
SA Prevention Priority #1: Reduce Under-age Drinking (UAD)
Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB YRBS-MI YRBS-US0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
22.5%
25.6%
21.8%19.9%
21.4%
26.3%
17.3%
30.5%
38.7%
Drank alcohol in the past 30 days
High School
Middle School
Source: 2012 MiPHY 5
SA Prevention Priority #1: Reduce Under-age Drinking (UAD)
Source: 2012 MiPHY
Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB YRBS-MI YRBS-US(Binge Drinking) Had five or more drinks of alcohol in a row, that is, within a couple of
hours, in the past 30 days
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
13.5%
16.3%
14.7%
13.0% 12.9%
17.4%
10.6%
17.8%
21.9%Binge drinking in the last 30 days
High School
Middle School
6
Some “Contributing Factors” to UAD:1) Access to alcohol Issues2) Perception of Risk3) Perception of Wrongness
Source: 2012 MiPHY (High School)
7
Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joseph V. Buren
2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010
. . . easy or very easy to get alcohol
61.7%
64.7%
69.9%
68.8%
65.1%
64.3%
66.8% 65.5
%68.3%
67.7%
68.3%
64.4%
. . . regular alcohol use: moderate or
great risk
73.6%
67.5%
69.9%
69.0%
71.2%
70.5%
76.0% 76.2
%74.4%
74.5%
70.7%
74.0%
. . . alcohol use by peers: wrong or
very wrong
66.9%
58.9%
59.1%
57.2%
63.2%
63.0%
68.7% 65.2
%62.8%
59.2%
59.8%
64.5%
Under Age Drinking: Access Issues
Source: 2012 MiPHY (High School)
8
Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo SJ VB0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% Where/ From whom did you get alcohol?
Alcohol Retailer (store, bar)
Acquaintance
Family Member
Other way
Under Age Drinking:The role that parents & friends play in it! Source: 2012 M iPHY (High
School)
9
Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joseph V. Buren
At home 33% 25% 23.8% 31.3% 28.2% 32.1% 37.4%
At another person’s house . . . (friend, friend of the friend)
62.4 70.3% 71.4% 65.5% 64.5% 58% 53.9%
Where did you drink alcohol in the past 30 days?
Under Age Drinking: Statistics sometimes become stories of human
tragedies!
10
Research: “People who report starting to drink before
the age of 15 are four times (4X) more likely to also report meeting criteria for alcohol dependence at some point in life.” (National Institute on Alcohol Abuse/Alcoholism – NIAAA)
Alcohol-related traffic Accidents (ARTCs): Statistics often become stories of human
tragedies!
11
Year: 2011 All Crashes#
Fatalities in all Crashes
ARTCCrashes
# Fatalities in
ARTCs
Barry 1,680 10 71 5
Branch 1,765 4 50 1
Calhoun 4,739 13 187 3
Cass 1,255 7 58 1
Kazoo 7,800 26 304 10
St. Joe 1,686 7 58 3
V. Buren 2,165 10 94 3
ARTCs are much more likely to result in fatalities than other types of vehicle accidents:
Source: MI-OHSP
ARTC stats & Community Impact-IYear: 2011 All Crashes # Fatalities in
all Crashes HBD Crashes # Fatalities in HBD Crashes
Barry 1,680 10 71 5Branch 1,765 4 50 1
Calhoun 4,739 13 187 3Cass 1,255 7 58 1Kzoo 7,800 26 304 10
St. Joe 1,686 7 58 3V. Buren 2,165 10 94 3
# ARTC Crashes 2007 2008* 2009 2010 2011Barry 99 81 60 71 71
Branch 57 56 48 41 50Calhoun 163 175 167 178 187
Cass 81 89 61 54 58Kzoo 372 347 297 307 304
St. Joe 102 70 78 73 58V. Buren 134 123 126 102 94
CA Region 1008 941 837 826 822 12
Source (both tables): MI-OHSP
ARTC stats & Community Impact-II
Year: 2011 Cost of Fatalities Cost of Injuries
Property Destruction
Estimated Total Costs
Barry $ 7,050,000 $ 914,300 $ 293,700 $ 8,258,000
Branch $ 1,410,000 $ 669,000 $ 222,500 $ 2,301,500
Calhoun $ 4,230,000 $ 2,252,300 $ 1,023,500 $ 7,505,800
Cass $ 1,410,000 $ 579,800 $ 329,300 $ 2,319,100
Kzoo $ 14,100,000 $ 3,590,300 $ 1,610,900 $ 19,301,200
St. Joe $ 4,230,000 $ 602,100 $ 284,800 $ 5,116,900
V. Buren $ 4,230,000 $ 1,115,000 $ 498,400 $ 5,843,400
CA Region $ 36,660,000 $ 9,722,800 $ 4,263,100 $ 50,645,900
13Source: MI-OHSP, and National Safety Council (NSC)
Prevention Priority #1: UAD & Other Alcohol-Related Consequences
(Community Strengths)Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets (characteristics,
institutions and Resources) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce UAD & other Alcohol Consequences
#2) Actions and ideas that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent/reduce UAD & other destructive Consequences of Alcohol in this County.
14
Another Priority area: Rx Drug AbuseBack to the SA Treatment Data Graph
(Kazoo CA area, FY 2011)
BarryBranch
CalhounCass
KazooS. Jo
e VBCA Area
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Alcohol
Coc.
mj
Heroin
Oth Opioid
Meth
Stim/Oth
Source: TEDS 201115
Rx Drug abuse: DEA Controlled Substance
Schedule ChartSCHEDULE I: Drug has no currently accepted medical use in Treatment in the US.
SCHEDULE II : Drug has a high potential for abuse. Drug has accepted medical use (with severe restrictions). Drug may lead to severe physical dependence or addiction.
Ex: Amphetamine and methylphenidate, fentanyl, oxycodone, hydromorphone, morphine, and secobarbital
SCHEDULE III :Drug has a high potential for abuse.Drug has accepted medical use (with restrictions).Drug may lead to moderate to high physical dependence or addiction.Ex: Buprenorphine, anabolic steroids and combination drugs like
hydrocodone/acetaminophen, and codeine/acetaminophen
SCHEDULE IV: Drug has lower potential for abuse /addiction. (Ex: Benzodiazepines) SCHEDULE V: Drug has lower potential for abuse/addiction (Ex: Cough syrups
w/Codeine)16
Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Rx Drug abuse
RX Drug Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB YRBS-MI
Pain Kill. 8.1% 9.6% 7.4% 6.1% 7.8% 7.4% 5.2% 12.6%
Stimul/ADHD 5.9% 3.2% 5.1% 3.9% 5.7% 5.8% 5.2% 8.2%
Barbit. 2.0% 2.9% 1.4% 1.1% 2.0% 2.4% 0.6% 3.6%
Steroids 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 1.8%
Pain Kill. 11.1% 13.6% 14.0% 11.7% 16.4% 13.3%
Stimul/ADHD 6.1% 6.8% 7.1% 6.6% 9.1% 9.4%
Steroids 7.6% 5.5% 5.6% 6.3% 9.0% 10.3%
17
Use of Rx Drugs w/o Medical Prescription in the last 30 days (High school)
Use of Rx Drugs w/o Medical Prescription: Life-time use (Middle School)
Source: 2012 MiPHY
Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Rx Drug abuse
18Source: 2012 MiPHY
Pain Kill. Stimul/ADHD
Barbit. Steroids Pain Kill. Stimul/ADHD
Steroids0%
4%
8%
12%
16% Rx drug use w/o a prescription
Barry
Branch
Calhoun
Cass
Kazoo
S. Joe
VB
High School
Middle School
Rx Drug abuse: Contributing Factors
19Source: NIDA (Study on Rx Abuse: Dec/2011)
What is Driving high prevalence of non-medical use of Rx drugs?
1. Misperception of safety: They are prescribed by a doctor! . . . They are made in pharmaceutical labs!
2. Increased availability of Rx drugs in the household (See graph)*
3. Lack of community resources for disposal of unused/expired meds
4. Patterns of prescription of addictive meds by medical professionals are not consistent with guidelines for responsible/ safe prescribing (ONDCP/White House: 2011 “Epidemic/Crisis Doc.)
Rx Drug abuse: Household Availability of Rx Drug
20
Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
3,851,1882,913,727
11,313,153
2,434,791
17,952,424
4,197,820
7,539,894
Units (Pills)
Average Per household: 190 Units (CA Area); 203 Units (Michigan)
MAPS: Volume of Scheduled II, III RX drugs in the CA Area
From 1991 to 2010, prescriptions for stimulants increased from 5 to 45 million; for opioid painkillers from 75.5 to 209.5 million.
Over 50% (in some cases 70% ) of "nonmedical users" of pain relievers, tranquil. stimulants, and sedatives obtained RX drugs from a friend or relative, for free.”
Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Rx Drug abuse (Community
Strengths)Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets
(characteristics and Resources, etc) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce non-medical use of Rx Drugs.
#2) Actions and Ideas that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent, mitigate and reduce non-medical use of Rx Drugs in this County.
21
Another Priority Area: Reduce Marijuana use
Back to the SA Treatment Data Graph (Kazoo CA area, FY 2011)
BarryBranch
CalhounCass
KazooS. Jo
e VBCA Area
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Alcohol
Coc.
mj
Heroin
Oth Opioid
Meth
Stim/Oth
Source: TEDS 201122
Prevention Priority Area:Reduce Marijuana use
Source: MIPHY 201223
B B C K S. VB Y Y0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2012
2010
Marijuana use in the past 30 days (High School)
Marijuana Use: Contributing Factors amongst
youth
24Source: 2012 MIPHY
Risk0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Perception or Risk: marijuana X tobacco
Barr
y Branch
Cass
Kzoo
Black fill: mj;Gray fill: Tobacco
Calhoun
SJ VB
Marijuana Use: Other Contributing Factors
25
1. (Social Access): HS/School-aged youth in this county report that getting marijuana is "sort of easy or very easy": HS (57.2%); MS (17.8%); Trend (2010): HS (53.6%); MS (16.7%).
2. Decreasing perception of risk and of the harmful consequences of marijuana use by the public in general linked to the Michigan Medical Marihuana law (more social acceptance of non-medical use of mj);
3. Increased illegal availability of marijuana as residual consequence of the MMML.
Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Marijuana Use
(Community Strengths)Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets (characteristics
and Resources, etc) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce use of Marijuana and its consequences.
#2) Actions and ideas that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent/reduce illegal use of Marijuana in this County.
26
Another Priority Area: Reduce Meth UseBack to the SA Treatment Data Graph
(Kazoo CA area, FY 2011)
BarryBranch
CalhounCass
KazooS. Jo
e VBCA Area
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Alcohol
Coc.
mj
Heroin
Oth Opioid
Meth
Stim/Oth
Source: TEDS 201127
Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Meth Use
28
2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo St. Joe V. Buren CA Area
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Data on Meth & Other Drug use (past 30 days) - High School
Meth. Inhal. Club H/C/Inj.Source: 2012 MiPHY
Meth Use: Potential Contributing Factor
(Perception of risk)
29Source: 2012 MiPHY
Risk: Moderate to great Risk0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Perception or Risk: Meth X Tobacco (High School)
Barry
Branch
Calhoun
Cass
Kzoo
Blue fill: Meth;Gray fill: Tobacco
SJ VB
Meth Use: Other Considerations, Determining
Contributing & Complicating Factors
30
1. Low perception of the highly addictive nature of meth;
2. Low perception of wrongness of meth use;
3. Meth: Easy manufacturing process and access to ingredients;
4. Lack of knowledge of the availability of resources for meth recovery http://www.drugabuse.gov/Testimony/6-28-06Testimony.html
5. Prevailing public perception that meth recovery is unlikely to occur
Ah! One more interesting piece of info: Illegal Drugs obtained in school
31
Barry Branch Calhoun Cass Kazoo S. Joe VB CA AreaYRBS_MI0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Offered/Sold/Given illegal drug on School Property (Past 12 months)
High SCh
Middle Sch
Prevention Priority Area: Reduce Meth Use (Community Strengths)
Please list:#1) Strengths & Assets
(characteristics and Resources, etc) of this community which can be used to prevent/reduce meth use.
#2) Ideas and actions that this group can plan and implement in the next 12 months to help prevent, reduce use of meth in this County. 32