A World in Motion How Supply Chain Managers Snap out of Crisis

A World in Motion – How Supply Chain Managers Snap out of Crisis

Prof. Dr. Thomas Wimmer, ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain

A World in Motion?

2 7 October 2015 ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer

New Top Player in the Markets



Source: IMF (2015)

RANKING BIP 2014

Economic Growth of PR China is Decreasing

7 October 2015 4 ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain


Bild: Creative Commons von Man-ucommons, Lizenz: CC BY 2.0

Economical Power of the U.S.A. is Growing up



Bild: Creative Commons von Man-ucommons, Lizenz: CC BY 2.0

Economical Power of Romania is Slightly but Constantly Growing



2013 + 3,5% 2014 + 1,9% 2015 + 2,2 … 2,5%

Changes in the German Society



von Marco Verch (Post-Streik in Köln vor Ver.di) CC BY 2.0

Changes in the Global Society



„LE Eithne Operation Triton“ von Irish Defence Forces - Lizenziert unter CC BY 2.0

Changes in Technology



Volatility of the German Economy



http://www.finanzen.net/index/Dax

http://www.finanzen.net/index/DAX/Charttool

Economic Growth Continues

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15e 16e 17e

EU China USA World

Source: IMF (2015), World Economic Outlook.

Real growth year on year in %

ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer

11

Forecast

7 October 2015

Internet of Things & Services



Beyond the “Smart Factory”, the processes of production and logistics are interconnected across company borders.

Material flows can be optimized, potential mistakes avoided in advance. Changes in customer requests are recognized at an early stage. Market changes can be handled effectively.

Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) are being created. Production system components like tooling machines are mutually interlinked and connected to Enterprise Resource Planning Systems. So the "Smart Factory“ becomes reality.

Minimum quantities of parts can be produced in the cheap cost structures of big lot sizes.

Industry 4.0 Today



Intelligent Units: Machines are self organizing their own production processes, service robots collaborate with human beings in assembly lines. Driverless transport vehicles autonomously fulfill logistics orders.

The Industry 4.0 philosophy determines the complete lifecycle of a product: research & development, production, testing, use, MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul), recycling.

Former “passive” tools, machines or transport devices are equipped with digital “Eyes & Ears” (sensors) as well as “Hands & Feet” (actuators) and are controlled via IT systems - centralized or de-centralized.

Smart Factory – State of the Art



Industrial processes using digital technologies become more "intelligent“.

New business models are created: software expertise and know-how concerning digital technologies determine the business success of companies.

Intelligent coverage and analysis of data enable companies to offer products that are precision-tailored to customer preferences.

New product ideas and developments result from the information collected by a smart product during its life cycle.

How Industry 4.0 Influences the Economy



High quality results, not deserted plants without any human presence

Process oriented and dedicated work

Procedures are easily coordinated – improved communication and autonomous and quick decision making.

Due to the high level processes, interdisciplinary expertise is more than welcome.

Vocational and educational training will be integrated core activities of companies who want to ensure that their employees are highly motivated.

Job Enrichment with Industry 4.0



Presence of SCM/Logistics

Production

Customer, End User

Retailer Original Equipment

Manufacturer (OEM)

1st Tier Supplier

2nd Tier Supplier

nth Tier Supplier

Forwarder Logistics

Service Prov. 3rd Party Log. Provider (3PL)

Contract Logistics Prov.

Express, Parcel, Courier

4th Party Logistics Provider (4PL)

Supply Chain Management / Logistics

7 October 2015 ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer 17

Presence of SCM/Logistics

Production

Customer, End User

Retailer Original Equipment

Manufacturer (OEM)

1st Tier Supplier

2nd Tier Supplier

nth Tier Supplier

Forwarder Logistics

Service Prov. 3rd Party Log. Provider (3PL)

Contract Logistics Prov.

Express, Parcel, Courier

4th Party Logistics Provider (4PL)

Supply Chain Management / Logistics

7 October 2015 ARILOG International Conference Logistics & Supply Chain

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer 18

Volatility and interdependencies in the economy / within supply chains, floating exchange rates, government regulations

Demographic change, generational handover: more short term focus

Disasters in nature and global politics

Increasing complexity through customer expectations, cost pressure due to transparency and global competition

Rapidly developing technology, “digitization” of business processes

Increasing number of networks and alliances

Inadequate infrastructure and lack of qualified personal

Driving Permanent Change



20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2015-Q12014-Q12013-Q12012-Q12011-Q12010-Q12009-Q12008-Q12007-Q1

Klima Lage Erwartungen

Normalniveau

Participants of SCM Survey …



Findings of Executive Interviews



91%

85% 85%

80% 78% 78%

76%

59%

39%

28%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Key Logistics Trends

Dedicated Strategies



94% 91% 89%

85%

78%

69% 70%

50%

43% 44%

24%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Key Logistics Strategies

Industry 4.0 will Drive the Change

23 7 October 2015

<1%

2%

17%

37%

43%

55%

86%

94%

98%

99%

Dentist

Chemical engineer

Fire fighter

Actor

Economist

Pilot

Real estate agent

Accountant/ Auditor

Tax advisor

Telephone salesperson

Probability for dedicated jobs to be replaced by robots or computers within the next 20 years (selection)

Source: Frey/Osborne (2013)

GENERALLY


Industry 4.0 will Drive the Change

24 7 October 2015

<1%

1%

4%

11%

27%

38%

68%

79%

96%

99%

Shipbuilding engineer

Sales manager

Software developer

Air traffic controller

Ships's captain

Order picker

Postman

Truck driver

Train driver

Freight forwarder

LOGISTICS

Source: Frey/Osborne (2013)


Probability for dedicated jobs to be replaced by robots or computers within the next 20 years (selection)

Prepared for Industry 4.0?

25 7 October 2015

26%

27%

31%

32%

36%

39%

46%

Mechanical and plant engineering

Electronics industry

Automotive industry

Medical technology

Energy technology

Logistics

Chemicals

How top managers rate the preparedness of their business field for Industry 4.0

Source: Roland Berger/BDI (2015)


Drivers of Industry 4.0?

26 7 October 2015

7%

27%

52%

63%

66%

93%

Workforce requirements

Organizational change

Increase in data volumes

Increase in complexity

Improved cost structures

Process optimization

Which fields are driving Industry 4.0 within companies?

Source: BVL (2015), Panel for the Logistics Indicator


Business Innovations?

27 7 October 2015

MAERSK

Spare parts for 3D printers during maritime transport


BVL is …

... an open network of people who are committed to efficient and effective cooperation in a globally active sector of industry.

... a voluntary association of management executives and decision-makers from the worlds of industry, science and politics.

... an active community whose members look beyond their own specific field of activity to both reap and generate specialised and interpersonal benefits.

Mission



Non-profit organisation, objective, independent, does not represent special interests

More than 10,000 members from the top echelons

of industry, trade, services and science

More than 30 chapters worldwide, about 300 free events every year

250 honorary officials

Exchange of knowledge and experience

Communicating the importance of supply chain management and promoting its application and development

Profile



Cross-sector encounters, transfer of know-how and experience

Information, ideas, stimuli

Inspiration for own day-to-day work

Hands-on demonstration of logistics concepts -> Presentations, company tours, videos

Interaction with logistics and SCM experts and decision makers from the fields of industry, trade, services, science and politics

In multiple countries, organized on a voluntary basis, participation free of charge

Chapters



Worldwide Contacts



http://www.bvl.de/peking/regionalgruppe-peking

http://www.bvl.de/shanghai/regionalgruppe-shanghai

http://www.bvl.de/singapur/singapur

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A World in Motion How Supply Chain Managers Snap out of Crisis