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1 4SECURiTY CLASS PICATION OF THIS PAGE

Form ApprovedREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188Ia REPORT SECL'RTY CLASSICiCATiON lb RESTRICTIVE MARKINGSUNCLASSIFIED NONE

3. DISTRIBJTION /AVAILABILITY OF REPORTAPPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE;

LE DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED.A D-A 220 937 R(S) 5 ONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S)AFIT/CI/CIA- 90-0126a. NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATIONAFIT STUDENT AT Universit (If applicable) AFIT/CIAo ArizonaI

6c. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 7b. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code)Wright-Patterson AFB OH 45433-6583

Sa. NAME OF FUNDING /SPONSORING 8b Oz ICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBERORGANIZATION I (If applicable)

Bc. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code) 10. SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERSPROGRAM IPROJECT TASK WORK UNITELEMENT NO. NO. NO ACCESSION NO

11. TITLE (Include Securit; Classification) (UNCLASSIFIED)Tnnovator A Financial Expert System12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S)James V. Nutley

TH IS0 FROM - TO _ 1990 1 1143aTYrPE OF REPORTi",.-"S J 3b. TIME COVEREDRMT 9114ATE OF REPORT Year, Month',Day) 5PGEONT1416. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE IAW AFR 190-1ERNEST A. HAYGOOD, 1st Lt, USAFExecutive Officer, Civilian Institution Programs17. COSATI CODES 18. SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)

FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP

19. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)

DTICELECTES APR25.19903520 D'STRIB JTION)IAVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21. ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION

[UNCLASSI (ED.JNLIM TED [ SAIME AS RPT. El DTIC USERS UNCLASSIFIED22a NAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDJAL 22b TELEPHONE (include Areai Code) 22c. OFFIC- SYMBOLEPNEST A. HAYGOOD, 1st Lt, USAF (513) 255-2259 AFIT/CI

Form 1473, JUN 86 Previous editions are obsolete SECUR17Y CLASSIFICA7JON OF THIS PAGE

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INNOVATOR

A FINANCIAL EXPERT SYSTEMby

James V. Nutley

A eport Submitted in artial Fulfillmentof the Requirement for the Degree

of Masters of ScienceManagement Information Systems)inhe University of Arizona

February 1990

Master committee:Professor Sudha Ram, ChairmanProfessor Doug Vogel

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ABSTRACT

INNOVATOR

A FINANCIAL EXPERT SYSTEM

byJames V. Nutley

Chairman: Professor Sudha Ram

The INNOVATOR expert system was designed to assist ithe evaluation of new Financial Service Product ideas. It iwritten in the Expert System Environment (ESE) on an IBM4381. During the course of this project I rewrote INNOVATORunder the direction of Professor Sudha Ram. INNOVATOR wasmodified during this project to take advantage of a newinterface to DB2 and lessons learned from the firstimplementation.

Acoession ForNTIS GRA IDTIC TAB ElUnannounced 0JustificationByDistribution/Availability Codes

Avail and/orDist Special

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSI would like to thank Professor Sudha Ram for her

guidance and direction.

And my lovely wife, Dorothy for moral and physicalsupport.

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TABLE OF CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...................... ..... .. . . ...LIST OF TABLES........................vLIST OF FIGURES........................vI. INSTRUCTION........................1II. Previous Research.....................4III. User's Guide.......................93.1 Names and Titles...................93.2 Profiles.......................103.3 Using the Program.................12IV. Technical Manual....................134.1 FCB's.......................134.2 Rules, and Parameters................17

4.3 Naming Convention.................18V. CONCLUSION........................21BIBLIOGRAPHY........................23APPENDIX A - Rules and Parameters..............24APPENDIX B - Innovator Program Listing. ........... 25

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1.0 - Major Product Lines ...... ............ 5TABLE 1.1 - Mutual Fund Product Types ..... .......... 5TABLE 1.2 - Mutual Fund Brand Names ...... ........... 6TABLE 1.3 - Product Line Evaluation Attributes .... 7TABLE 1.4 - Product Evaluation Attributes .... ........ 8TABLE 1.5 - Product Brand Evaluation Attributes .. ..... 8

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1.0 - Text Entry Screen ...... ............. 10FIGURE 1.1 - Multiple Choice Screen ... ........... . 12FIGURE 1.2 - FCB Heirarchy...... ................ 15FIGURE 1.3 - FCB Heirarchy 2..... ............... 16

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I. INSTRUCTION

Overview of the area of Expert Systems

Artificial Intelligence (A) is the discipline whichtries to build machines that can be considered intelligent.Definitions of the word intelligent have proved slippery,still, some of the products of man's effort to duplicatehimself in silicon have born useful fruit. One such productis the Expert System.

Expert Systems are a departure from the historicaldirection of AI. Previous systems have attempted to implementgeneralized problem solving programs on wide varieties ofproblems, expert Systems select a specific domain in whichthey will function, defined by the Knowledge Base of thesystem. Knowledge Bases are translations of domainspecific knowledge which a human expert would apply to aproblem in his/her field of expertise. While a proceduralcomputer program will process the data given it and deliversome output state, an expert System searches for a solutionto a problem. The goal of a successful expert system is notto replace human experts in their field, but rather to handleproblems that are ill-structured, and combine quantitativeand judgmental data, which would ordinarily require thedomain specific expertise of a human being, but are wellenough understood to translate to machine processable form.

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Once translated, the Knowledge Base can be accessed to solvethese problems while leaving the expert time to focus on lesswell understood problems, or it can assist in the training ofnew experts, or it can make the knowledge of a single expertavailable to a larger audience than a single human beingmight otherwise assist.

The screening of potential new financial serviceproducts is a problem domain which fits the criteria for usingExpert System technology. -

... the decision making process is not necessarilywell structured, it uses variables that are bothcategorical and continuous, and relationshipsbetween the variables that are both numerical andlogical. '

Their is also a clear need for this type of a system.the process of introducing new products is very

unstructured and hence very risky. Failure rates of newproducts are substantial. Past figures on new productlaunches reveal that 33 to 60 of new products arecommercially unsuccessful. This is a disturbingly highfailure rate considering the amount of organizationalresources, such as dollar investment and R & D talent,

I Sudha Ram and Sundaresan Ram, INNOVATOR: AN EXPERTSYSTEM FOR NEW PRODUCT LAUNCH DECISIONS, Applied ArtificialIntelligence, 2:129-148, 1988.

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channeled into new product development. Someorganizations consistently outperform others in the newproduct area, thanks to their group of new productexperts. An expert system that could faithfullyreproduce the judgement of these experts could saveorganizations tremendous amounts of resources andsimultaneously improve the success rate of theirinnovations. "2

It was with these factors in mind that Professors Sudha andSundaresan Ram began the coding of the INNOVATOR ExpertSystem. INNOVATOR's knowledge base was culled from fiveacknowledged experts in the field, and a wide rangingliterature search. A version of the program was implementedby Mr. Jaafar Husain and a description of the system and itsKnowledge Base has been published in the journal AppliedArtificial Intelligence, #2 1988.

The INNOVATOR implementation was performed in the ESE(Expert Systems Environment) Shell, an IBM product. ESE isdesigned to run on IBM mainframes (a 4381 in this case). ESEallows developers to enter rules directly in an IF.. .Thenformat. It also allowed external routines to store andretrieve the Attribute states of the product beingconsidered, although this was in a flat file format. Theimplementation worked, but the professors Ram believed that

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it could be improved. The following features were plannedfor a follow up version of INNOVATOR:

- connectivity to a true relational database formanagement of information

- ending reliance on routines which were constructed inthird generation languages

These goals became achievable when IBM released an upgrade ofESE, including the Access command for FCB control text (seesection 4.1.1) which allows direct access to SQL/DS and DB2.

The Purpose and Objective of this project was to build anew version of INNOVATOR, taking advantage of the directdatabase access I was expected to deliver a working,expandable ESE application which implemented the KnowledgeBase of the INNOVATOR application without resort to externalthird generation language calls and with suitablemodifications; supervised by Professor Sudha Ram,-'to takeadvantage of lessons learned in implementing the firstINNOVATOR and implement good database design. , ,

-- ( -. ' /

II. Previous ResearchKnowledge elicited for INNOVATOR came from Financial

Services Experts. Two of the experts chosen worked innational firms specializing in financial investments, one wasfrom a small independent financial advisory firm, one workedin the investment division of a savings and loan association,and one worked for a commercial bank. The literature search

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that followed covered Investment surveys, and financialmagazines such as Money, Forbes, and the Wall Street Journal.

The Knowledge Base of Innovator can be represented fordiscussion as sets of text tables, which have a hierarchicalrelationship to each other. The root table is the list ofproduct lines.TABLE 1.0Major Product Lines

- Annuities- Bonds- Insurance- Mutual Funds- Options- Precious Metals- Stocks- Real Estate Partnerships

These represent the broad categories in to whichINNOVATOR divides the domain of Financial Service Products.If we follow the Mutual Funds path, we come to the recognizedtypes of Mutual Funds.

TABLE 1.1Mutual Fund Product Types- Balanced Funds- Bond Funds- Convertible Funds- Growth Funds- Growth and Income Funds- Income Funds- International Funds- Money Market Funds- Sector/Specialty Funds

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Then established brand names of mutual fund products areidentified.TABLE 1.2Mutual Fund Brand Names- AARP - Kemper- American - MFS- Bull-Bear - Merrill Lynch- Calvert - New England- Century - Oppenheimer- Dean Witter - Putnam- Delaware - Shearson- Dreyfus - Templeton- Eaton Vance - USAA- Fidelity - Value Line- Financial - Vanguard- IDSAfter the types of Financial Services had been identified,tables of key attributes were developed for evaluating theviability of Product Line, Product, or Brand.

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TABLE 1.3Product Line Evaluation Attributes

Attribute ClassesMarket Financial Product CorporateCompetition

Estimated Volume of Distinctive- Compatibility Number ofMarket Business ness with existing CompetitorsSize productsEstimated Gross Consumer Financial Quality ofGrowth Margin Appeal Outlay Competitors

RateEstimated Return on Ease of Organizational Vulner-Suscep- Investment Imitation Structure ability oftibility Competitors

Season- Payback Contribution Personnel Skillsality of Period to Company in Marketingdemand Image

Personnel Skillsin TechnicalProduct Development

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TABLE 1.4Product Evaluation Attributes

Attribute ClassesPerformance Rating

Past Year RiskPast 5 YearsPast 10 YearsFuture (estimate)

TABLE 1.5Product Brand Evaluation Attributes

Attribute ClassesCompany Company Earning Past Quality ofStanding Size Potential Performance ServiceAge Number of Comission Grocth Rate Facility forFunds Rate of Assets Switching

Offered BetweenFunds

Reputation Range of Mininu Average ServiceFunds Investment Return Represent-Offered Amount Ccapared ative sto Industry Avail-Average ability

Management Total Assets Nwaber of itsRelationship

Turnover Funds in the withIndustryBrokers/AgentsTop 20

With the Knowledge Acquisition complete, it only remains totranslate this knowledge into ESE objects and debug. I had

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this information and the previous ESE application, as well asguidance from Prof. Sudha Ram. I was ready to beginimplementation.

III. User's GuideMy Goal was to implement the INNOVATOR ESE application,

and to do so in such a way that it accessed SQL/DS. Thischapter is designed to assist a user in using the application.

3.1 Names and TitlesThe first thing the user will see is the welcome screen.

After that, a user is asked questions. Just like a humanexpert, INNOVATOR must elicit data from the end-user in orderto determine the degree to which the product being consideredmeasures up. At first though, the user will have to answerquestions about himself or herself. Data is gathered aboutthe individual users primarily for product improvement at alater time, although usage monitoring could also beaccomplished. An entry for each complete session is made,storing who used the system, what company they work for, whenthe consultation took place, and what the final evaluationis. The plan is for INNOVATOR's record of usage to guidefuture developers in evaluating who uses INNOVATOR, and inindicating who to elicit additional Knowledge or userinterface improvement suggestions from. Security is not

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supported by ESE, however the mainframe environment has amplepassword protections available.

It is important, in the current implementation, thatgreat care be exercised while entering the company name, andthat the name be entered in exactly the same manner for everysession. INNOVATOR will search for existing Profiles usingthe company name, and a name which was spelled correctly buthad capital letters the other lacked would be treated as anentirely different word.

FIGURE 1.0III N N N N 0000 V V AA TTT 0000 RRRRI NN N NN N 0 0 V V A A T 0 0 R RI N NN N NN 0 0 V V AAAA T 0 0 RRRIII N N N N 0000 V A A T 0000 R R

Please enter your company name (30 characters or less)

PF1 Help PF2 Review PF4 What PF7 Up PF8 Down PF10 How PF11 Why

Once the User has entered this information, He will be askedweather or not an existing profile should be used.

3.2 ProfilesINNOVATOR contains Knowledge about what attributes of a new

product are important, it also knows that some things, such asSeasonality of Demand, are best when they are low, while others,

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such as Product Distinctiveness, are best when they are high.However, INNOVATOR as an Expert System, has no way to tell whatthe financial status of the End-Users company is at the time of aconsultation, and no means to determine the financial resourcesthat a company might or might not be willing to devote to a newproduct, unless the end-user tells it. This is done by entering aProfile .

A Profile is a collection of attributes with numeric values.These attributes represent the judgement of the end-user, or hiscompany on what is acceptable for a new product for their specificcompany. Storing their own preferences in this fashion is apowerful feature, as it allows the company to establish their ownlevels at which they would commit funds to a new product.Multiple profiles can be stored for a single company toallow a variety of views to be applied to any product.

The user is asked if he/she would like to use an existingprofile from his/her company, or if he/she would like to enter anew one. Depending on the type of product, INNOVATOR will promptthe user for a value for each necessary attribute. Profileattributes are usually expressed in millions of dollars, or as apercentage of some Financial concept, such as the possible marketfor the product.

Once the user has chosen or entered a profile, the product inquestion has a standard to be compared to and the consultationcan begin.

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3.3 Using the ProgramFIGURE 1.1

III N N N N 0000 V V AA TTT 0000 RRRRI NN N NN N 0 0 V V A A T 0 0 R RI N NN N NN 0 0 V V AAAA T 0 0 RRRIII N N N N 0000 V A A T 0000 R R

What do you wish to evaluate?Product LineProductBrand

PF1 Help PF2 Review PF4 What PF7 Up PF8 Down PF10 How PF11 Why

From this point on, the user will be asked questions in amultiple choice fashion, until INNOVATOR is ready to deliver anevaluation. There are two distinct segments to this portion of theconsultation.

First, INNOVATOR has the end-user establish a priority foreach Attribute Class in the product he/she is considering.Although the user can specify that each attribute class is equallyimportant, INNOVATOR arranges the rest of the consultationaccording to differences in the priorities, highest to lowest, andwill simply choose a default order if the user considers allAttribute Classes of equal importance.

Next, the attributes of each class are considered in turn.The user must choose the appropriate value for each attributeaccording to the product being evaluated at the time. Once these

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attributes are established, INNOVATOR will compare profile andproduct values, as well as evaluating the product against theestablished attributes in it's Knowledge Base, and deliver anevaluation to the screen (as well as the results log).

IV. Technical ManualESE is an established product from IBM. An ESE application

is composed of five structures; Parameters, Rules, Groups,Screens, and Focus Control Blocks (FCBs). Although this chaptercannot be considered a substitute for the ESE Reference Manual, itcontains descriptions of each of the ESE structures, and examplesof how they were used in INNOVATOR.

4.1 FCB'sExpert systems use inference engines to perform their

functions, but these engines do not process their rulessequentially. Non-sequential processing can have advantages forsome problems, but not every problem can be solved without resortto some sequential processing. In order to address thepossibility of dual approaches, ESE controls its applicationsthrough FCBs. An FCB can be thought of as a short script whichthe ESE application will perform. The script of what will beperformed by an FDB is called it's Control Text. Control Texts

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are written in Expert System Development Environment ControlLanguage, which is composed of eight commands:

ACCESS interface with SQL/DS and DB2ACQUIRE Obtain parameter values form an external data sourceASK Ask End-User for data to obtain parameter valuesDETERMINE Invokes Backward Chaining Inference Engine to find a

specific parameter valueDISCOVER Invoke Forward Chaining Inference Engine to use a

set of rules to find parameter valuesDISPLAY Displays parameters and their values to end usersESTABLISH Initiate processing of another FCBPROCESS Pass control to external data routines

When an application contains more than one FCB, then the FCBsare arranged in a hierarchy beginning with a root FCB. InINNOVATOR, OVERMODULE is the root FCB for the application. Itestablishes WHICH in which the type of product is chosen. IF theproduct is a mutual fund, then either a Product, Product Line orBrand Name is chosen and pursued. The figure below shows thehierarchy to that point.

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FIGURE 1.2OvermoduleWhich

MF Lroduct Line MFjroduct MFBraniName

After the Type of Mutual Fund is established, INNOVATOR asksthe user weather they want to use one of the existing profiles orcreate a new one. Separate FCBs, NEWPROFILE and USEOLD handlecreation and retrieval of profiles. These FCBs contain thecommands which read from and write to the database tablePROFILEMFEVAL, where mutual fund profiles are kept. Once theprofile to be used is loaded, five FCBs, named by formatPL__Figure, establish the users priority for the AttributeClasses to be used. Then the FCBs named by formatPLF__EVAL control the evaluation, one attribute classat a time, of (in this case) the product line being considered.After they have finished control passes back up to WHICH, wherethe final results are displayed and saved in the Database TableRESULTLOG.

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FIGURE 1.3MFProduct LineI INewProfile UseOldPlVH Figure PlHFigure PMo -Figure

P1_L_Figure P1_VL_Figure

PLF_MarketEval PLFFinanceEval PLF_ProductEvalPLFCompetitorsEval PLFCorporate_Eval

This number of FCBs is larger than the minimum necessary todo this type of job, but I proceeded on the principle ofstructured programing that code should be modular in construction.The *-Figure modules are usable throughout the application withsmall modifications for priority setting, while the *_Eval modules

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must be customized for each attribute class, but can be copied andmodified from one branch to another.

FCBs have a number of properties that can be individuallyaltered for specific effects. See Appendix A for a list of thoseproperties.

4.2 Rules, and ParametersThe heart of a heuristic Knowledge Base are the facts

(Parameters) that it consists of and the Rules that relate onefact to another. Like FCBs, both Parameters and Rules in ESE haveproperties that can be altered, see Appendix A.

Parameters are normally either character strings or numbers.Parameters may be assigned by the user during the session, or theymay assume a value defaulted to them, or they may be assigned avalue through the actions of an inference engine processing rules.

Rules are expressions of relationships between parameters.They are represented by statements which must follow the formatbelow: ( indicate that the contents are required and may be anystring of the appropriate format, [] indicate that the stringwithin is optional)

IF THEN

Where the IF and THEN, one premise statement and one actionstatement are the minimum requirement for a rule. As many

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additional Premise and Action statements can be assigned to therule as one wishes, action statements will always be used, henceonly AND may be used on them. Premise statements may be linkedeither with ANDs, or ORs. OR allows the rule to apply todifferent premises one at a time.

The premise statement itself is most often a numeric orlogical relation. For instance, = .Rules fire when premises are true, a false condition can beachieved by adding NOT to a premise as in not = . Action statements can be of the same format aspremise statements or they can direct a subset of the ESE commandlanguage, such as Establish .

There is an alternative form of rule, used when the premisestatement of the rule must include statements of the relativelevels of certainty in the parameters. This is a Fuzzy IFstatement or FIF. An example of a FIF statement from INNOVATORis:

fif certainty of (plfinanceeval) > .5 andcertainty of (pl marketeval) > .5 andcertainty of (plcorporateeval) > .5 andcertainty of (plcompetitoreval) > .5 andcertainty of (plproducteval) > .5

then there is strong evidence that pl_finaleval is 'approve'

4.3 Naming ConventionAs the number of ESE Objects increase, the difficulties of

editing or modifying the Knowledge Base become more acute. There

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is, however a simple method to maintain some control overincreasing ESE Knowledge Bases, through the simple expedient ofadopting a naming convention.

ESE's built in editor allows the convenience of wildcardsearches, using the * character, so that a user may access any andmore importantly, all parameters, or rules, or FCBs, groups andscreens, whose names share identical characters.

I chose the following for my naming convention:_

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Where A would indicate that the rule would test for conditionsappropriate for the approval of the product line, while a Dwould indicate a test for conditions inappropriate for approval.

4.4 Database PropertiesTwo Database tables are used by the current form of

INNOVATOR, although as more product types and catagories come intothe data base, more will be needed. The first one stores profilesof the Mutual Fund Product Line, and should be of appropriateformat for other types of profiles with only a name change. Theadvantage of this form of table, as pointed out by Professor SudhaRam, is that name changes of attributes need not be propagated tothe table columns.

CREATE TABLE PROFILEPLEVAL (COMPANY CHAR(30) NOT NULL,COUSER CHAR(30), PROFILENAME CHAR(30), PARAMETERNAMECHAR(30), PARAMETERVALUE INTEGER)

Where COMPANY is the column where the users company name is kept,COUSER is the column where the user's name is kept, PROFILENAMEis the column where the name of the profile being stored is kept,PARAMETERNAME is the column where the names of attributes arestored and PARAMETERVALUE.

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The second table is where records of the user session arekept. This is a relatively straightforward recording of the usersname,

CREATE TABLE RESULTLOG (COMPANY CHAR(30) NOT NULL, COUSERCHAR(30), COTITLE CHAR(30), PROFILETYPE CHAR(12),PROFILENAME CHAR(30), RESULT CHAR(40), STARTDATE CHAR(20),FINISHDATE CHAR(20)).

Where COMPANY, COUSER, COTITLE, PROFILETYPE, PROFILENAME are thesame as in the OTHER TABLE. RESULT stores the final results ofthe session. While STARTDATE and FINISHDATE store the beginningand ending times for the user consultation.

V. CONCLUSIONOne would like to finish a software project believing that

the best code possible at the time had been implemented. I regretthat I cannot make that claim for my version of INNOVATOR. Iembarked on this project with the tasking to implement access toDB2. This was accomplished. However, I am certain thatimprovements can be made in the performance and friendliness ofthe program. Clearly this version of INNOVATOR should not be thelast one written.

The older version of INNOVATOR was a hybrid program, usingprocedural language routines to store and retrieve data where thepresent version directly accesses DB2. Perhaps this strategyshould be reconsidered, not to abandon DB2, but to reincorporatethe abilities of a procedural language.

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INNOVATOR requires that a number of features relating to asingle product be entered during each session. Rather thancausing the expert system to query the user concerning eachfeature, a procedural program could assist the user in settingthe values, and then pass the file to DB2. Or perhaps a formeditor such as DBEDIT could be used. The ESE portion of theprogram could be summoned after the appropriate database tableshad been updated or constructed, which would leave only thereasoning tasks to be done by ESE. This strategy might produce afaster application requiring fewer lines of code.

Another aspect of INNOVATOR which could be improved are theexplanation facilities, the HOW and WHY commands. The chiefdifficulty here is that ESE does not support context sensitiveexplanation. HOW or WHY display the names of rules andparameters currently being operated on. It is more reasonable tobelieve that a user, activating the WHY facility, would want anexplanation of what facts the program was seeking and how thosefacts would effect the heuristic being processed. Some expertsystem environments already support this type of facility,perhaps ESE will eventually be upgraded to support it also. Whilethe programmer would obviously need to spend considerable extratime building effective explanation messages, the user wouldreceive much better support.

Nice to have improvements would include a more modern userinterface. For instance, when presented with a multiple choicelist, the user might prefer highlighting the choice with a cursor

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key and selecting it rather than entering an X or numericcharacter in the space in front of the selection.

A graphical output might be useful; perhaps with a bar graphrepresenting how each category of attribute had exceeded orfallen short of the required value.

The section of my own code which least satisfies me are therules for making the final determination on the product. Idivided the possible results into a set of rangers and guessedwhich should be approved, marginally approved etc. Academicstudies with guidelines that world indicate the cutoffs for eachrange would be better for this purpose. I neglected to look forthis type of information and the accuracy of this version ofINNOVATOR suffers for it.

I did learn a great deal about expert systems codingfrom this project. I hope to have another chance to apply it inthe near future.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Ram, Sudha and Sundaresan Ram, INNOVATOR: AN EXPERT SYSTEM FORNEW PRODUCT LAUNCH DECISIONS, Applied ArtificialIntelligence 2:129-148, 1988.

Addis, T.R. Designing Knowledge-Based Systems. New Jersey:Prentice Hall, 1985.

Bowerman, Robert G., B.S. and Glover, David E., Ph.D. PuttingExpert Systems Into Practice. New York: Van Nostrand ReinholdCo. Inc, 1988.

Walters, John and Nielson, Norman R. Crafting Knowledge BasedSystems: Expert Systems Made Realistic. New York: John Wileyand Sons, Inc, 1988.

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APPENDIX ARules and Parameters

FCB Parameter RuleAdditional Instance Author AuthorQuery Comment CommentAnnounce Constraint JustificationAuthor Default constraint NameComment A Expect value Owning FCBsControl Text Format Mask Print NameDisplay Screen Name Rule TextDispose whendone long Prompt Rule TypeDistinguishing Owning FCB'sFeatures Print NameDynamic Rule Order Procedure ArgumentsEnter Value Screen Procedure NameExternal Value PromptScreen ScreenExternal Data Sourcing SequenceGoals Value Can ChangeInitial Data FlagInitial QueryMax InstancesMultiple choicescreenNameParametersParentPrint NameResultsRules

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