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AAPA Safety Initiatives Update :
Working Together with COSCAP
6th COSCAP-NA Steering Committee
Meeting
29-31 August 2006 by
Martin ERAN-TASKER
Technical Director
• About AAPA
• Safety drivers and industry response
• Safety Outreach
• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update
• Discussion
Presentation outline
AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
• Regional trade association representing 17 major international
airlines based in Asia Pacific
• Committed to promoting sustainable growth of the aviation industry
serving both passenger and freight needs
• Work with member airlines, governments, regulators and industry
partners on issues of common concern
• Permanent secretariat headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
• Representation in Washington and Brussels
AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
AAPA Fleet Development
• ~ 1,300 aircraft
• 72% of AAPA fleet is widebody
– Operating 37% of the world’s B777 fleet
– Operating 36% of the world’s B747 fleet
– Operating 26% of the world’s A330/A340
fleet
• 47 new aircraft deliveries in 2006
• 239 more aircraft for delivery from 2007
– Includes 135 new generation A380 and
B787
AAPA Work Structure
ENVIRONMENTAL WORKING GROUP
(EWG)
PUBLIC RELATIONS MGR
WORKING GROUP
CARGO SECURITY WORKING GROUP
(CSWG)
SECURITY COMMITTEE
(SC)
ENGINEERING & MAINTENANCE
WORKING GROUP (EMWG)
FLIGHT OPS & SAFETY
WORKING GROUP (FOSWG)
MATERIALS MANAGEMENT
WORKING GROUP (MMWG)
TECHNICAL COMMITTEE
(TC)
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
WORKING GROUP
FRAUD PREVENTION
WORKING GROUP
DISTRIBUTION
WORKING GROUP
CARGO
WORKING GROUP
FACILITATION
WORKING GROUP
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
PLANNING WORKING GROUP
NORTH AMERICA
WORKING GROUP
AIRLINE SERVICES COMMITTEE
GATS TASK FORCE
AEROPOLITICAL COMMITTEE
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
ASSEMBLY OF PRESIDENTS
• About AAPA
• Safety drivers and industry response
• Safety Outreach
• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update
• Discussion
Presentation outline
The Safety Drive
• In 2005 scheduled operations*,
– 18 (9) fatal accidents recorded, 714 (203) fatalities
– 0.02 (0.01) accidents per 100 million passenger-kilometre
• Global accident rate is 0.76 per million sectors (IATA CEO Speech, 20 Feb
2006)
• Recent crashes
– 10 July 2006; Pakistan International Airlines F27; Multan, Pakistan
– 9 July 2006; Sibir Airlines A310; Irkutsk, Russia
– 3 May 2006; Armavia Airlines A320; near Sochi, Russia
• New airline business model
• Fuel cost pressures – cost doubled in two years to US$100b, 23% of
total costs
*ICAO Press Release 15 March 2006 : Scheduled operations, Does not
include acts of unlawful interference; less than 2250kgs
1995-2004 Fatal Accidents –
By Region of Occurrence
Source : Lamy (2005) ICAO
Safety Is Our Concern
Asia Pacific Is Our Concern
Aviation Safety – Performance Trends
• Asia Pacific = AAPA + PRC +Others
• Source: IATA Safety Report 2005, ATA 2005 Economic Report, AEA 2005 Yearbook, AAPA estimates
Jet Aircraft Hull Loss Rate by Operator Region2001-2005
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Hu
ll L
os
s /
Mill
ion
Se
cto
rs
World North America Europe Asia Pacific AAPA IATA
Data: 3-year moving averages
IATA Target: 0.65
ICAO DGCA Global Safety Conference
• Transparency and sharing of safety information are fundamental.
• Mutual trust between States, increase public confidence in air travel,
and help maintain the integrity of the safest and most efficient
means of mass transportation ever created.
• USOAP results on the ICAO public website by 23 March 2008.
• ICAO and IATA to share safety-related information from their
respective audit programmes from 31 March 2006.
• The safety framework … all stakeholders and continuously evolve to
ensure its sustained effectiveness and efficiency in the changing
regulatory, economic and technical environment of the 21st century
Industry Response
Region Airlines Collaborative
Efforts
States
North America Air Transport
Association of
America
Commercial
Aviation Safety
Team
Europe Association of
European Airlines
JAA Safety and
Strategy Initiative
Asia Pacific Association of
Asia Pacific
Airlines
FSF Regional
Team Leader
COSCAP RAST in
SEA, SA, NA
PASO
Rest of the World Regional
Associations
e.g. PAAST
(South America)
COSCAPs
RASOS
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
5 year running average
Cooperative efforts are bringing accident rate
down
Hull Loss Accident Rate Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December 2002
FSF
CFIT/ALAR
Industry effort
starts CAST/JSSI
begins PAAST
begins
Ra
te p
er
mil
lio
n d
ep
art
ure
s
COSCAP safety teams
(SARAST, SEARAST
And NARAST)
Source : Kyle Olsen, CAST
Safety “Working Together” model
AAPA
Manufacturers
Regulators –
Better States,
Better Airlines
Aviation
Associations
Operators
Why COSCAP is Important to AAPA ?
• “Better States, Better Airlines”.
• Five of nine ICAO safety strategies listed:
– Global remedial plans - target root causes of
deficiencies
– Resolve deficiencies through regional remedial
plans
– Exchange of information between States to
promote mutual confidence in the level of aviation
safety between States and accelerate the
improvement of safety oversight
– Safety management systems across all safety-
related disciplines in all States
– Safety improvement through technical cooperation
programmes
Source : ICAO Strategic Objectives 2005-2010
Non-AAPA
AAPA
QF (Australia)
NZ (New Zealand)
JL/NH (Japan)
BI (Brunei)
(TG) Thailand
(MH) Malaysia
(SQ) Singapore
(VN) Vietnam
(GA) Indonesia
(PR) Philippines
(CX/KA) Hong
Kong SAR
(KE/OZ) South Korea
COSCAP NA
(KE/OZ) South Korea
PR China
Mongolia
DPR Korea
COSCAP SEA
(TG) Thailand
(MH) Malaysia
(SQ) Singapore
(VN) Vietnam
(GA) Indonesia
(PR) Philippines
(CX/KA) Hong Kong SAR
Macau SAR
A “Win-Win” for COSCAP and AAPA
AAPA RTL
Myanmar (MH/TG)
Lao PDR (TG)
Cambodia (MH/TG)
Bangladesh, Bhutan,
India, Maldives
Nepal, Pakistan,
Sri Lanka
COSCAP SA
COSCAP Cornerstone
• Tangibility of outcomes
• Wide dissemination of safety messages
• Communication of deficiencies, interventions and successes
• Importance of development and sharing best practices
• Creation of National Aviation Safety Teams (NASTs)
• Need for participation of operators, service providers and other stakeholders
• Need for continuity of participants
• About AAPA
• Safety drivers and industry response
• Safety Outreach
• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update
• Discussion
Presentation outline
AAPA Outreach Model
AAPA (17 airlines)
FOSWG
Target
Sub-Regions
Work through
National Airline
Association or
Regional
Cooperatives
Work through
ICAO COSCAPs
States
Operators
ICAO leads global safety
COSCAP assists States
AAPA complements assistance to
operators
AAPA Outreach Road Map
AAPA
•Prioritise
region
•Work with
regional/
national airline
association or
regional
cooperation
group
Region
•Initiate or
Facilitate
FOSWG-type
activities
•Data Collection
•Issue
Identification
•Address Issue
•Identify
potential
solution
AAPA
•Identify safety
intervention
•Provide best
practices
•Consult experts
•Work with
COSCAPs
/States
Regio
n
Implement
Feedback to
States
Feedback to
COSCAP
Operators in Targeted Sub-Region
Own the Safety Project
AAPA Facilitates, as appropriate
COSCAP Vital Link
• About AAPA
• Safety drivers and industry response
• Safety Outreach
• FOSWG and Safety Incident Update
• Discussion
Presentation outline
AAPA Work Structure
ENVIRONMENTAL WORKING GROUP
(EWG)
PUBLIC RELATIONS MGR
WORKING GROUP
CARGO SECURITY WORKING GROUP
(CSWG)
SECURITY COMMITTEE
(SC)
ENGINEERING & MAINTENANCE
WORKING GROUP (EMWG)
FLIGHT OPS & SAFETY
WORKING GROUP (FOSWG)
MATERIALS MANAGEMENT
WORKING GROUP (MMWG)
TECHNICAL COMMITTEE
(TC)
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
WORKING GROUP
FRAUD PREVENTION
WORKING GROUP
DISTRIBUTION
WORKING GROUP
CARGO
WORKING GROUP
FACILITATION
WORKING GROUP
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
PLANNING WORKING GROUP
NORTH AMERICA
WORKING GROUP
AIRLINE SERVICES COMMITTEE
GATS TASK FORCE
AEROPOLITICAL COMMITTEE
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
ASSEMBLY OF PRESIDENTS
AAPA Flight Operations and Safety WG
Key Objectives
• To enhance cooperation among members to improve airline safety,
reliability, economy and efficiency
• To provide a communication mechanism to influence industry bodies
in flight operations and safety matters
Background
• Originated as Safety Sub-Committee in 1970
• Renamed as Flight Operations & Safety Working Group in 1993
• Consist of 16 active member airlines of AAPA
• Attended by senior executives of flight operations and safety
• Meeting twice a year
• Reporting to the AAPA Technical Committee (TC)
Flight Vs Ground Incidents (Jul-Dec 2005)
Ground Safety
Events
13%
Flight Safety
Events
87%
Information Exchange
(Jul-Dec 2005)
Ground 19%
Flight 81%
AAPA Safety Update
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
Incident Rates (Jul-Dec 2005)
0.13
0.20
0.28
0.64
1.49
3.23
16.04
3.16
2.16
1.81
1.10
0.77
0.33
0.21
0.16
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00
Airmiss
Taxiway/Runway Excursions
Stall Warning
Taxiway/Runway Incursions
Hard Landing
Fire Warning/Detection
Flight Controls Malfunction
EGPWS
Turbulence
Due to Ground Handling
ATC
Due to Ground Operation
TCAS-RA
Systems Mulfunction
Bird Hazard
Rates per 10,000 departure
AAPA Safety Update
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
Incidents by Percentage (Jul-Dec 2005)
EGPWS
4.6%
ATC
7.4%
Due to Ground Operation
8.6%
Systems Mulfunction
9.5%TCAS-RA
9.6%
Bird Hazard
44.3%
Flight Controls Malfunction
2.5%
Turbulence
3.4%
Airmiss
0.5%
Stall Warning
0.9% Hard Landing
1.2%
Taxiway/Runway Excursions
0.2%
Taxiway/Runway Incursions
1.1% Fire Warning/Detection
1.8%
Due to Ground Handling
4.3%
AAPA Safety Update
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
Incident Rates per 10,000 Departures
(Jul-Dec 2005) Aircraft Type
Flight Safety Events A-300 A-320 A-330 A-340 B-737 B-747 B-767 B-777 MD-11 F50 DHC6 DC10 Avg
Bird Hazard 8.01 32.19 10.44 10.16 9.09 14.43 34.93 23.95 11.55 2.86 1.10 33.73 16.04
Fire Warning/Detection 0.00 0.25 0.41 0.00 0.89 1.67 0.55 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33
Turbulence 0.36 0.50 0.82 4.07 0.72 2.46 0.44 3.15 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 1.10
Taxiway/Runway Incursions 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.56 0.53 0.76 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21
Taxiway/Runway Excursions 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.00 0.16
Flight Controls Malfunction 0.73 0.00 0.41 2.03 1.34 0.97 2.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64
Systems Mulfunction 1.46 1.01 6.96 12.20 3.51 5.63 3.82 2.02 0.00 2.15 0.00 0.00 3.23
Stall Warning 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.70 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20
EGPWS 0.36 1.51 0.82 0.00 4.35 1.14 0.55 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.77
Hard Landing 0.36 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.70 0.22 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28
Airmiss 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 0.26 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.13
ATC 0.00 0.25 4.71 2.03 3.29 3.69 5.24 0.56 1.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.81
TCAS-RA 1.46 4.02 3.28 8.13 2.34 6.86 3.93 4.05 3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.16
Ground Safety EventsDue to Ground Handling 0.00 0.25 3.48 0.00 1.28 3.69 2.18 0.11 3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.49
Due to Ground Operation 0.00 1.26 2.46 0.00 2.56 2.46 12.44 0.45 0.00 0.00 1.10 0.00 2.16
Total number of flights 27461 39767 48830 4919 179411 113689 91619 88927 5195 13984 9101 593 623496
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
Deviation of Incident Rates(For the period of Jan-Jun and Jul-Dec 2005)
-100.00
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
Airmiss
Taxiway
/Run
way Exc
ursio
ns
Stall W
arning
Taxiway
/Run
way In
curs
ions
Har
d La
nding
Fire W
arning/D
etect
ion
Flight
Con
trols M
alfunct
ion
EGPW
S
Turbulenc
e
Due
to G
round
Hand
ling
ATC
Due
to G
round
Ope
ratio
n
TCAS-R
A
Syste
ms
Mulfu
nctio
n
Bird H
azard
Incid
en
t R
ate
Ch
an
ges(%
)
AAPA Safety Update
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
Non-damage bird strikes incidents rates (Jul-Dec 2005)
3.65
5.53
5.99
6.99
12.08
12.27
12.66
13.48
30.81
38.17
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00
BOM
PEK
PVG
SGN
TOY
DPS
HGH
TAO
DEL
SUB
Incidents per 1,000 departure
AAPA Safety Update
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
Damage bird strikes incidents rates (Jul-Dec 2005)
0.09
0.09
0.11
0.15
0.21
0.24
0.31
0.46
1.23
1.82
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
SIN
FUK
ICN
HKG
BKK
KIX
NRT
HIJ
DPS
BOM
Incidents per 1,000 departures
AAPA Safety Update
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
TCAS RA incidents rates (Jul-Dec 2005)
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00
KUL
INCHEON
TOKYO
SIN
ANCHORAGE
BANGKOK
LOS ANGELES
NEW YORK
ORD
SFO
Incidents per 1,000 flights
AAPA Safety Update
Source : 26th AAPA FOSWG
Working Together – Information Exchange
• AAPA Action Plan :
– Safety Information Exchange
– Regional position and
formulate action strategy
– Safety outreach
– Exchange of LOSA type
experience
– Exchange of airport/ATC
hazard information
– Regional position in response
to proposed regulatory
rulemaking
– AAPA Aviation Safety Mini-
Seminar Q3 2006
• Working together value:
– Periodically update COSCAP
on information exchange
output and strategy
formulation
– Support RAST activities
– Extend strategy catchment to
include non-AAPA members
and regulators
– Availability of safety
consultants, virtual or physical
– Assist in guidance principles
– Invitation to regional seminars
(no fees) and email
information
Safety interventions are most
effective if data-driven
Different regions, types of
operations may have different
needs
Customisation essential
Other FOSWG Actions : Fuel efficiency improvement
• Infrastructure/Operational procedures
– ATC and Management
– Airways congestion
– Air route straightening
• NRT Early Gear Down Requirement
– Estimated extra fuel burn :
• AAPA member airlines - more than 1,300
tonnes per year.
• Industry - almost 2,500 tonnes per year.
– Estimated additional emissions:
• AAPA member airlines - almost 5000
tonnes of CO² per year.
• Industry - 9500 tonnes of CO² per year.
– Noise impact
Other FOSWG Actions
• ATC issues
• Sharing real time hazard report
• Aircraft call sign de-conflict study
• Ramp marking deficiencies in US airports
• ‘Unsafe' airlines banned by EU
• FSF Ground Accident Prevention (GAP) programme
Discussion
• How could AAPA better support the role and function of COSCAP?
• What deliverables are likely in the short and medium term from
collaboration between AAPA and COSCAP?
Martin ERAN-TASKER,
Technical Director
ASSOCIATION OF ASIA PACIFIC AIRLINES
www.aapairlines.org
RVSM Harmonization
6th COSCAP-NA Steering Committee
Meeting
29-31 August 2006 by
Martin ERAN-TASKER
Technical Director
Flexibility
Predictability
RVSM Reduced
Vertical
Separation
Minimum
Efficiency
ICAO RVSM Implementation Objectives*
• Implementation based on a safety assessment to
demonstrate the safety objectives satisfied – Collision risk model
– Overall Risk
• 1000ft Vertical Separation between FL290-410
• Cost to Operators
• System Users – capability
– operating in RVSM environments
• Take account of RVSM requirements of adjacent regions
• Airspace organization and ATC System
• Global Application – Regional Implementation
*ICAO Do. 9574
RVSM Benefits
• Improved operations/efficiency
• Greater availability of the more fuel-efficient altitudes
• Greater availability of the most fuel-efficient tracks or
routes
• Increased probability that an operator will be cleared
onto
the desired track or altitude
• Enhanced controller flexibility to manage traffic through
an increased number of available altitudes
Global RVSM Implementation
• ….and where are we now?
• North Atlantic
• Pacific
• WATRS
• Europe
• Australia/ New Zealand
• Western Pacific/ South
China Sea
• Canada North
• Middle East/ Bay of Bengal
• Domestic USA/ Canada South
• Caribbean/ South America
• Korea/ Japan
Implemented FL290-410
Naha FIR
Tokyo FIR PACOTS routes
Over NOPAC & some PACOTS, with the use of Uni-directional Routes - All altitudes has
been used.
PHNL
KLAX
KSFO
KSEA
PANC
NOPAC routes
Southeast
Asia
RVSM Implementation Ongoing
• Russia CIS States in Eastern European Region and parts of the Russian
Federation implemented RVSM FL290-410
FIRs of BAKU, TBLISI, YEREVAN, and ROSTOV (over the high seas)
• Africa – status unknown FL290-410 planned 25 January 2005
Implementation ?
• China/ Afghanistan/ Mongolia/ Turkmenistan Progressing
Feet v Metres
Factors to Consider
• Harmonization – Adjacent Regions implemented FL290-FL410
• Avoid Transitions and transition errors – Lesser ATC workload
– improved ATM management and safety
– Safer separation standard between aircraft
• Commercial Fleet Mix predominately Western
specification/ build
• Regional Fleet growing
• Avionic systems orientated in feet – Potential safety issues if operation required in metres
• Reduced impact on International Carriers – Already operating in RVSM Global harmonized environment
Harmonized Approach
essential to ensure airspace
Safety
Efficiency
Flexibility
Martin Eran-Tasker, Technical Director
ASSOCIATION OF ASIA PACIFIC AIRLINES
www.aapairlines.org