Aaron Davis

Royal Botanic Gardens Kew UK

Building a climate resilient coffee economy

RESILIENCEthe capacity to adapt successfully

in the face of threats or disaster

Understand the risk

LONDON 2100

Coffee product offerings from Harar

Coffee brewing in SW Ethiopia

15,000,000In Ethiopia

depend on coffee

A CLIMATE RESILIENT COFFEE ECONOMY FOR ETHIOPIATHE STRATEGIC CLIMATE INSTITUTIONS PROGRAMME (SCIP)

Sponsored by the Governments of the UK (DFID), Denmark and Norway

The issues

Ethiopia: increase in mean temp.

1.3 ˚C An increase of 0.28˚C per decade

UNDP Climate Change Profile Ethiopia. Lizcano et al. (2008)

Decrease in season precipitation

15% reduction main growing-season rainfall

Funk et al. 2008. PNAS 105: 11081–11086

© RBG Kew

J. Williams

The challenges

The forest coffee (FC) system

The semi-forest coffee (FC) system

Agro-forestry systems

Sun coffee systems

Ethiopian Major coffee climate zones

Altitude range for Ethiopian Arabica: 1000 to 2200 m a.s.l

East of Rift

West of Rift

The coffee growing environment

Plant biology and physiologyThe coffee landscape

Climate and growing year

Methods and analyses

GIS Specialist Cartographer Coffee Specialist Climate Modeller

Spatial Analyst Vegetation Specialist Spatial data analyst Coffee Producers

Remote sensing via Landsat 8

Coffee forest (maximum)

Niche modelling

Robusta coffee

Distribution data

Niche distribution

Environmental data per grid square

Environmental layers (bioclims)

Potential coffee areas

NMA climate station data

Recording micro-climate variables

Measurement of micro-climate

Data-logger

Mini CS-logger

Coffee model testing and farming survey

Car routes

© RBG Kew

Talking to farmers and communities

© RBG Kew

Assessing stress and vulnerability

© RBG Kew

Bale Mts. Mean temp. to 2100

Outcomes

Adaptation Strategy

WHEREWHAT

WHEN

HOW ?WHO ?

Coffee Atlas

Coffee Atlas

Page layout

•40 pages

•Covering all coffee areas

Coffee Atlas

Single page example

•Shows all humid forest

• Coffee growing suitability

overlaid on forest

• Other GIS map layers

What else did we learn?

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Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Ethiopian coffee areas: temperature profiles

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BahirDarAir

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Ethiopian coffee areas: rainfall profiles

Months of the year

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Start of wet season

Temperature vs. rainfall (soil moisture)

Problem period

Yirgacheffe (Sidamo)1500 m asl

Seasonality is critically important

330 mm140 mm

410 mm

Months of the year

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Bale Mts. Precipitation to year 2100 (warmest qtr)

© RBG Kew

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Resilient Arabica cultivars

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a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x z aa ab ac ad ae

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Arabica selections

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Multi-location variety trials in Ethiopia

Mekasha et al. 2014

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Multi-location variety trials in EthiopiaC

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The use of other coffee species

Tricaly sia sp 12320Tricaly sia v erdcourtiana 16183Cof f ea rhamnif olia 13848 TanzPsilanthus bridsonii 19856 IndiaPsilanthus trav ancorensis 19857 IndiaPsilanthus ebracteolatus 15352Psilanthus manii 15351 Mt CamPsilanthus sapinii 16688Psilanthus semseii 15392Psilanthus sp A 20014Cof f ea montekupensis 15353 CamCof f ea liberica 16675 Trop Af ricaCof f ea bakossi 15399 CamCof f ea liberica v ar Dewev rei 16140Cof f ea magnistipula 10Cof f ea may ombensis Kumba 15361 CamCof f ea kapakata 15393 AngolaCof f ea canephora 15368 Trop.Af rCof f ea congensis 15395 W.Af .&.CongoCof f ea brev ipes Kupe 15355 CamCof f ea heterocaly x Nkolbisson 15373 CamCof f ea humilis 16684 West AfCof f ea stenophy lla 15394 W.&.WC.Af ricaCof f ea togoensis 16188 West AfCof f ea eugenioides 13847 TanzCof f ea kiv uensis 16685 ZaireCof f ea sp Congo Mouloundou 19441Cof f ea kimbozensis 13773 TanzCof f ea muf indiensis 13775 TanzCof f ea lulandoensis 13822 TanzCof f ea kihansiensis 13835 TanzCof f ea mongensis 13774 TanzCof f ea f adenii 13772 TanzCof f ea zangeberiae 16162 TanzCof f ea spG 16160 TanzCof f ea schliebenii 13846 TanzCof f ea salv atrix 19445 SW.Tanz & ZimbCof f ea pseudozanguebariae 13776 TanzCof f ea bridsoniae 13845 clone a TanzCof f ea bridsoniae 13845 clone b TanzCof f ea bridsoniae 13845 clone c TanzCof f ea racemosa 15391 Natal.&.MozCof f ea racemosa 19862 Natal.&.MozCof f ea sessilif lora 13777 TanzCof f ea costatif ructa 16157 TanzCof f ea pocsii 13823 clone c TanzCof f ea pocsii 13823 clone d TanzCof f ea millotti 12250 W.MadCof f ea heimii 12324 clone a N.MadCof f ea heimii 12324 clone b N.MadCof f ea tetragona 12232 N.W.MadCof f ea dubardii 12344 N.W.MadCof f ea littoralis 12484 N.E.MadCof f ea mcphersonii 12272 clone b N.E.MadCof f ea mcphersonii 12272 clone a N.E.MadCof f ea mcphersonii 12272 clone d N.E.MadCof f ea augagneurii 12341 N.& C.N.MadCof f ea tsirananae 12729 N.MadCof f ea labatii 19868 MadCof f ea humbertii 12478 W.MadCof f ea grev ei 12256 N.W.MadCof f ea labatiana 12274Cof f ea decary ana 12322 W?MadCof f ea arboinensis 12234 W.MadCof f ea ambongensis 12263 clone b W.MadCof f ea ambongensis 12263 clone d W.MadCof f ea ambongensis 12263 clone e W.MadCof f ea homollei 12227 MadCof f ea lancif olia 12228 E.MadCof f ea kianjav atensis 16692 SE.MadCof f ea commersoniana 12330 S.E.MadCof f ea v ianney i 12345 E.MadCof f ea arenesiana 12482 MadCof f ea v otav ov y ensis 12251 S.E.MadCof f ea resinosa 12321 E.MadCof f ea rakotonasoloi 12259 E.MadCof f ea coursiana 12260 E.MadCof f ea boiv iniana 12317 clone e N.& E.MadCof f ea boiv iniana 12317 clone a N.& E.MadCof f ea boiv iniana 12317 clone d N.& E.MadCof f ea buxif olia 12728 C.MadCof f ea leroy i 12230 clone a MadCof f ea bertrandii 12273 S.MadCof f ea pierrieri 12318 MadCof f ea sakarahae 12481 S.C.MadCof f ea liaudii 12343 MadCof f ea abbay esii 12479 S.E.MadCof f ea andrambov atensis 12270 Mad E.MadCof f ea moratii 21266 MadCof f ea mangoroensis 21267 MadCof f ea humblotiana 12252 ComCof f ea perv illeana 12253 N.MadCof f ea ratsimamangae 12730 N.E.MadCof f ea my rtif olia 16293 MauritiusCof f ea campaniensis 15401 MauritiusCof f ea mauritiana 15400 MauritiusCof f ea macrocarpa 15402 MauritiusCof f ea richardii 12258 E.MadCof f ea manombensis 12732 MadCof f ea leroy i 12230 clone b MadCof f ea f araf angensis 12231 W.MadCof f ea ankaranensis 12233 N.MadCof f ea monthis sacrii 12323 E.MadCof f ea perrieri 20015 MadCof f ea sahaf ary ensis 12254 N.MadCof f ea sambav ensis 12262 N.E.MadCof f ea betamponensis 12268 clone a E.MadCof f ea betamponensis 12268 clone b E.Mad

2117

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0

West Africa [Canephora group]

East Africa [including Eugenioides group]

Maurin et al. (2007)

Davis et al. (2013)

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–

There are now 124

species of coffee

across Africa and Asia

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–

The value of good agronomy

Intervention < Temperature >Soil moisture

1. Mulching ++ (soil) ++

2. Terracing + (soil) +(+)

3. Irrigation ++ (soil), + (air) +++

4. Pruning + (air)

5. Shade ++ (soil), ++ (air) +

Thank you Sintercafé

Thank you