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AASCIFNational Issues Conference CEO Meeting

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics on the Workforce

April 2018

Kevin BinghamEmail: [email protected]: www.linkedin.com/pub/kevin-bingham/1/852/557

The Headlines

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

The Impact of AI and Robotics on WC

Closing Thoughts

Q&A

Agenda

The Headlines

Copyright © 2018 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 4

The Impact of AI and Robotic Process Automation (RPA)

USA Today

NBC News

Fortune

Digital Trends

BBC

MYSA

Recode

MSN

Pharmacists Store Clerks Sports writersLawyers SoldiersDrivers BabysittersAstronauts Rescuers

Chef, Factory Worker, Surgeon, Security Guard, Food Delivery Driver, Journalist, Receptionist, Telephone Salesperson, Accountant, Tour Guide, Barman, Librarian, etc.


Thomas FreySenior FuturistDaVinci Institute

Thomas Frey discusses disruptive change and catalytic change. However, he notes that most industries are in the second half of their bell curve (i.e., past peak employment). He discusses three trends that are driving major changes across the globe.

“Over 2 billion jobs will disappear by 2030.”

Source:https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=thomas+frey+ted+talk+2+billion&view=detail&mid=46244D92E3FB43FDBF5B46244D92E3FB43FDBF5B&FORM=VIRE

2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030… Driverless Cars, Printable Houses, and Teacher-Less Education


World Economic ForumWhen Will Robots Overtake Humans

Source: https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/


Jim PintoAutomationConsultant

Although the quote is humorous, there is no doubt that some jobs will cease to exist in the future as automation and robots play a larger role in industrial manufacturing.

“The fully automated factory of the future

employs only one man and one dog. The dog is

there to make sure the man doesn’t touch

anything and the man is there to feed the dog.”

Man Versus Machine


Survey of 250 CompaniesJob Shift in the Near Term, Job Losses in the Future

Source: Deloitte’s 2017 State of Cognitive Survey. Cognitive Breakthrough – A closer Look at Five Key Findings

The most common benefit of adopting AI cited by survey respondents was to “enhance the features, functions, and/or performance of our products and services.” Fifty-one percent ranked it either first, second, or third. In short, companies are seeking to increase the value of their products or services by making them “smarter.”

Artificial Intelligence (AI)


Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial IntelligenceJohn McCarthy, Marvin Minsky, Nathan Rochester, Claude Shannon

“An attempt will be made to find how to make machine use language,

for abstractions and concepts, solve kinds of problems now

reserved for humans, and improve themselves.”

“We think that a significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems if a carefully

selected group of scientists work on it for a summer.”

What is AI? The Answer in 1956…


Daniel LevitinThe Organized Mind - Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload

What is AI? The Answer today…

“The same family of algorithms we’ve been using for 20 years are doing a better job because they

have access to big data.”

Machine learning examplesSupervised

Linear/Logistic RegressionGLMsDecision TreesNeural NetworksEtc.

UnsupervisedCluster AnalysisSelf Organizing Maps (SOMS)Association Rules/Market Basket AnalysisPrincipal Components Analysis (PCA)Etc.

Natural Language Processing


Examples of Machine Learning and AI Impacting Our LivesRecommendation Algorithms


Examples of AI and Machine Learning Impacting Our LivesHandwriting Recognition

1


Examples of Machine Learning and AI Impacting Our LivesFacial Recognition

FACEBOOK TAG SUGGESTIONSFACIAL RECOGNITIONAUTOMATICALLY KNOWS TOTAG MY PICTURE AS KEVINBINGHAM

FACEBOOK TAG SUGGESTIONSFACIAL RECOGNITION ALGORITHMSUGGESTS FRIENDS THATSHOULD BE TAGGED FROMMY FRIENDS LIST

Source: http://fortune.com/2015/06/23/facebook-facial-recognition/


Examples of Machine Learning and AI Impacting Our LivesAnswering Questions

Source: NOVA | Smartest Machine on Earth: Can a Computer Win Jeopardy!? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D3e9DUVq1M

WATSON: What is “Holiday”

ARTHUR: What is “April”

CHRIS: What is “June”

ARTHUR: What is “Nov.”

ANSWERS FED TO WATSONFOR MACHINE LEARNING

IBMWATSON

WATSON:What is “May”

+$800

+$200

+$400

+$600


Examples of Machine Learning and AI Impacting Our LivesOncology Decision-Making Process

Source: Contingencies Magazine, March/April 2015, http://www.contingenciesonline.com/contingenciesonline/20150304#pg30https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuxL3yzXxJohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxEdLQtgiO8

“The convergence of big data, advanced analytics, and a deepening understanding of habits and how to ALTER human behavior through data-enhanced “nudges” is rapidly changing the world we live in.”

Memorial Sloan-Kettering & IBM Watson“In 15 seconds, Watson analyzes 200 million pages of clinicaldata, cross-references the symptoms of 1 million cancer patients, and reads millions of current medical journals to test hypotheses. This is an unimaginable amount of information, analyzed in a way that helps nudge a physician in 15 seconds—amazing. Doctors using this type of natural-language-processing search could benefit from modifying their habits, perhaps delivering better care by leveraging evidence-based medicine to improve health outcomes for all.”


Examples of Machine Learning and AI Impacting Our LivesOncology Decision-Making Process

Source: youtube.com

Dr. Nussbaum, Chief Medical Officer of WellPoint

“It’s the ability of Watson to think like a clinician thinks. To think like a physician.”

“It can adapt and learn from the information we give it and from the clinical outcomes of patients that are actually being continuously fed into Watson.”

“Our ultimate goal is to have this done at the point of care. This is going to now allow better informed decision making by physicians at the point of care.”


The Ongoing Debate About Artificial IntelligenceAugmentation or Replacement?

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ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE

AUGMENTEDINTELLIGENCE

Alan Turing – The “Turing Test” is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human being.


Sandy PentlandDirector of MIT’s Human Dynamics Lab2017 Deloitte Review Interview

“Marvin [Minsky] was advocating what’s called

‘commonsense reasoning’. Machines have shown

essentially no examples of doing that. Therefore, they are complements to people. People are actually not so

bad at that. However, they are somewhat lousy at

tuning things and keeping exact accounts of stuff.

Machines are good at that. That gives the idea that there

could be a human-machine partnership.”

Key Take Away From Today’s Session“Human-Machine Partnership” for AI

The Impact of AI and Robotics on WC


The Changing World for Workers Compensation Insurers

Impact on Payroll and Premium


McKinsey Global InstituteAutomation Could Kill 73 Million U.S. Jobs by 2030

Source: http://www.ksdk.com/article/news/nation-world/automation-could-kill-73-million-us-jobs-by-2030/507-495464595

Jobs most susceptible to automation are physical ones in predictable environments. Those include workers who operate machinery, prepare fast food, collect and process data, originate mortgages and do paralegal and accounting work.

Jobs safest from the effects of automation involve managing people, high-level expertise and unpredictable environments. They include engineers, scientists, health care providers, educators and IT professionals, as well as gardeners, plumbers and elder care providers.

“The big question isn’t, 'Will there be jobs?' ” Lund says. “The big question is, 'Will people who lost jobs be able to get new ones?' ”

Includes some of the highest premium generating classes which cover more repetitive tasks responsible for a lot of job injuries

Includes some of the lowest premium generating classes

Big question on future payroll impact, given companies will require less humans on job sites


Mobile 3D Printing Home ConstructionThe Impact on Construction Employment and WC Premium

enGadget

Source: https://www.engadget.com/2017/03/07/apis-cor-3d-printed-house/

Apis Cor built a 400-square-foot house within 24 hours

The total cost was $10,134, 70% less than traditional const.

Construction workers spent a minimal amount of time painting it and installing roofing materials and hydro-acoustic thermal insulation

Mobile construction 3D printer and automatic mix and supply unit that almost eliminates the human factor


The Self-Driving 18-WheelerThe Ripple Effect on Employment and WC Premium

Truck Stops• Pilot• Flying J• Petro• Loves• Etc.

Hotel Chains• Motel 6• Red Roof Inn• Super 8• EconoLodge• Etc.

Fast Food• McDonalds• Wendy’s• Popeye’s• Diners• Etc.

3.5 Million Professional Truck Drivers

Automation Decreases Truck DriversFewer Accidents, Decreased Labor Costs, Better Fuel Efficiency

Ripple Effect on Multiple Businesses

Other• Gas Stations• Tow Trucks• Leisure• Public Works• Etc.

Headlines:

Truck Driver• Hotel Nights• Breakfasts• Lunches• Dinners• Etc.


“Flippy the Robot”The Impact on Short-Order Cooks

USA Today

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/talkingtech/2018/03/05/flippy-robot-now-cooking-up-burgers-near-l/390179002/

Flippy costs $100,000

Flippy can flip 2,000 burgers a day

Caliburger notes short order cooks “quit to often”

Interest in Flippy driven by:

$15 minimum wage pressure

Rapid turnover of cooks and low job satisfaction

Inability to hire and replace cooks


Amazon Headlines

Source: Internet headlineshttps://www.statista.com/statistics/234488/number-of-amazon-employees/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLVCGEmkJs0

ImpactOf

Robots?

OR

?

Impact on Return to Work Programs


The Importance of Return to Work Programs

Risk ManagementMonitor

Source: http://www.riskmanagementmonitor.com/top-10-benefits-of-return-to-work-programs/

Benefits for Your Employees

Retaining full earnings capacity

Maintaining a productive mindset

Staying on a regular work schedule

Avoiding dependence on a disability system

Having a sense of security and stability

Benefits to the Insured

Anticipating and controlling hidden costs

Reducing financial impact of workplace injuries

Providing a proactive approach to cost containment

Improving their ability to manage an injury claim and any restrictions

Getting their experienced employees back to work, resulting in less time and money spent on recruiting and hiring


Where Did All the Light Duty Work Go?

Source: Internethttp://www.governing.com/topics/mgmt/no-more-toll-booth-collectors.html


Where Did All the Light Duty Work Go?

Source: Internet

Light Duty Jobs

Mowing lawns with riding mower

Sweeping

Answering phones/Call Centers

Inventory parts, supplies, etc.

Husqvarna Automower

Chat Bots and Digital Assistants


In today’s competitive environment, carriers need a system that provides the flexibility to improve product speed-to-market, support growth of its customer base, and improve its underwriting capability and profitability. Customers and agents have higher expectations from carriers to provide improved customer experience and self-service capabilities. Reduced data entry and improved access to accurate policy data are important factors influencing producers in selecting their preferred insurance carrier.

Rising Expectations With Regards to Customer Experience and Self-Service Capabilities

Source: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financial-services/us-fsi-policy-administration-transformation-achieving-results-in-a-complex-ecosystem.pdf


IPSoft Amelia – “Meet Your First Digital Employee”

Source: http://www.ipsoft.com/amelia/


Chat Bots Revolutionizing Customer Experience

Source: iTunes – Insurance Journal TV from Insurance Journal

“The old word way of doing things was you needed to call in a company that was going to build a proprietary type of system for you or solution for you, and that was extremely expensive. So, most smaller size carriers would say you know what, we will continue to do it the way we are doing it, because we just can’t afford it. The exciting thing today is, smaller size organizations can have technology power at their fingertips as potent as what their big huge competitors have as well. And that to me is the game changer.”

“But today, these smaller carriers can actually go out and partner with different technology companies and actually leap frog ahead of their much larger competition.”

- Brian S. CohenAltamont Capital Partners


Lemonade Insurance Claim Payments

Source: https://www.lemonade.com/

Filing a Claim


Change is Inevitable, and Some Would Say Already Upon UsSpeed to Value (S2V)

Ryan HanleySVP of MarketingTrustChoice.com

“It will not be Insurtech startups

that destroy the traditional insurance industry. Rather, it will be a complete lack of urgency in

regards to the insurance customer

experience.”

Ryan notes that the days of “we will return your call in 24 hours” are over. Insurance companies must address three layers of speed to value (S2V): 1) initial engagement, 2) after the sale, and 3) after the claim.

Sources:https://www.agencynation.com/how-speed-to-value-will-destroy-traditional-insurance/?utm_source=linkedIn&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare


Woebot Automated Conversational AgentCognitive Behavioral Therapy For Injured Workers Some Day?

Sources: https://www.woebot.io/https://mental.jmir.org/2017/2/e19/

Woebot is built using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), therapeutic expertise, excellent writing, and sense of humor to create the experience of a therapeutic conversation for all of the people that talk to him.

Wearables


Wearables Improving Workplace Safety

ConstructionExecutive

Source: https://enewsletters.constructionexec.com/techtrends/2016/05/wearable-technology-can-improve-workplace-safety/

One global construction company, VINCI Construction UK, employed wearable sensors on its bricklayers to collect objective data, ultimately reducing the risk of lower back injury and increasing productivity and efficiency. The results allowed the company to make an informed business decision based on real data rather than intuition:

– Time spent with back bent over 20 degrees reduced by up to 85 percent;

– 84 percent reduction in lower back muscle activation;

– Repetition of higher risk movements reduced by up to 70 percent; and

– 17 percent increase in productivity, measured in bricks per minute.

The latest in wireless wearable sensor technology can measure human movement like never before, to give companies objective, easy-to-interpret data that can be turned into measurable results. Small, wireless sensors are placed on workers as they go about their workday, providing live data that is then combined with high-definition video to pinpoint risk areas of repetitive “red zone” movements that can lead to injuries.


Merging Wearables and Artificial Intelligence

Sources: https://www.atlaswearables.com/https://www.zebra.com/us/en.htmlhttps://clarisreflex.com/

Atlas Wearables

Measuring Body Movement

• Fitness band plus intelligence platform

• Measures heart rate and calories burned

• Leverages machine learning algorithms that automatically classifies a person’s exercise routine in 3D vector, being able to decipher the difference between push-ups and triangle pushups

• Algorithms can be extended to understand how a person walks, sits, interacts with others, performs work related tasks, etc.

Zebra

Efficient Work Environments

• Connecting the workforce through technology

• IoT and mobile capabilities

• Barcode and RFID tracking of assets

• Wearable computers

• NFL player tracking (e.g., speed, acceleration, etc.)

Claris Reflex

Knee Recovery

• Wearable sensor

• Patient tablet coordinating pre-and post surgical interactions

• Video communications

• Caregiver dashboard that alerts caregivers to at-risk patients

Insurance Companies Leveraging Behavioral

Economics


What do AIG and Nobel Prize Winner Richard Thaler Have in Common? Automatic Enrollment

Sources:https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/09/richard-thaler-wins-the-nobel-prize-for-economics.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-aig-cyber/aig-to-include-cyber-coverage-to-commercial-casualty-insurance-idUSKBN1CV2XE

Reuters CNBC

“The bottom line, from our point of view, is that people are, shall we say, nudgeable.”

- Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness


What do AIG and Nobel Prize Winner Richard Thaler Have in Common? Automatic Enrollment

Source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/thank-richard-thaler-for-your-retirement-savings

Bloomberg

From < 10% toalmost 60% automaticenrollment.


Behavioral Economics and Lemonade Insurance

Sources:Internethttps://www.lemonade.com/

Dan Ariely Lemonade Insurance

“Basically, if you tried to create a system to bring out the worst in people, you would end up with one that would looks a lot like the current insurance industry.”

- Dan Ariely, Chief Behavioral Officer


Behavioral Economics and Lemonade Insurance

Source:https://www.lemonade.com/

Insureds submit claims live via phone camera

Sign name & digital pledge at the beginning of a claim

“Giveback” if claims < 80%, profits go to charity of choice

AI driven underwriting with 18 fraud models

“On the other hand, in the group that was asked to recall the Ten Commandments, we observed no cheating whatsoever. This result was very intriguing. It seemed that merely trying to recall moral standards was enough to improve moral behavior.”

- The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty

“There is an inherent conflict of interest in the very structure of the old insurance industry. Every dollar an insurer pays you is a dollar less for their profits. So when something bad happens to you, their interests are directly conflicted with yours.”

- Dan Ariely, Chief Behavioral Officer of Lemonade

Augmented and Virtual Reality


• VR makes it possible for users to immerse themselves in constructed surroundings that depict actual places or imaginary worlds. AR overlays contextual information on the immediate physical environments users see before their eyes, thus blending digital components and experiences with real life.

• Apex Labs augmented reality helping Aerospace manufacturers and workers

• Harnessing this head-mounted display technology, Thales created DragonFly in partnership with xPlor, its American innovation branch at MIT Media Lab. DragonFly is a surgical headpiece that has already enabled a doctor at NeuroTexas Institute to navigate a spine operation. Using augmented reality, the technology puts graphically enhanced procedures in the surgeon’s direct view and increases operational awareness; it’s also equipped with “telepresence,” a way to consult other medical experts who are logged in.

Augmented and Virtual Reality

Sources: http://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/2016/04/19/augmented-and-virtual-reality-a-new-vision/http://apex.aero/2016/08/19/augmented-reality-medicine-movies-flying-machines

WSJ

APEX


Bloomberg

Virtual Surgery: The Operating Room Goes Hight-Tech

Source: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=virtual+reality+operating+room+physician+videos&&view=detail&mid=803E6F086C913E7C79BB803E6F086C913E7C79BB&FORM=VRDGAR


The Future of Medical Training

Source: LinkedIn, Joseph Sebbag, President & CEO at InsurTech Glogal


Jay SamitVice ChairmanDeloitte Digital Reality Practice

The next generation of employees are already familiar with using smartphone technology. Training, step-by-step repairs, safety protocols, etc. will all be available in real-time.

“Just as the smartphone was adopted by employees long before corporate training apps were created, millions of workers are engaging with augmented reality on their phones and tablets today. Their familiarity with these devices will make training the

worker of tomorrow much easier. Properly configured, today’s digital reality and

machine learning tools have the power to improve safety, productivity, and reduce

cost.”

Source: http://fortune.com/2017/07/22/augmented-reality-corporate-training/

AR and VR – Training The Workforce


Virtual Reality in Workers’ Compensation Safety Training

Source: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southcentral/2016/09/30/427949.htm

“We believe Safety in a Box is a life saving educational tool, so it means a lot for our work to be recognized in this way,” Jeremiah Bentley, Texas Mutual senior marketing and community affairs manager, said in the company’s announcement.

Safety in a Box and its accompanying app allow the user to “experience” four different construction site accidents: being caught in a collapsing trench, touching an active electrical line, falling from a ledge, and being struck by a falling object.

The company said this application was the first time virtual reality has been used for workplace safety in the insurance industry, and Texas Mutual hopes that this technology will help prevent workplace accidents in the construction industry by promoting safe work practices.

Insurance Journal


Virtual Reality in Workers’ Compensation Safety Training

Source: http://txsafetybox.com/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DttMm2hNVGo&feature=youtu.be

Closing Thoughts


High Level “Take Aways”

1

2

3

Artificial Intelligence will largely help AUGMENT human capabilities for the remainder of our careers

We live in a narrow AI world. Broad AI is a long way offE.g., Would you allow the AI behind Google’s self driving car to perform brain surgery on you? NO!

WC payroll will be adversely impacted by the increased usage of robotics process automation over the next few decades

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High Level “Take Aways”

4

5

Robotic process automation will continued to be pitched as a way to “help reduce low value repetitious tasks,” “free up resources to focus on more complex tasks,” “do a better job of memorializing processes, procedures and policies.”

There is no doubt that some repetitive tasks and employee positions will become obsolete as AI and RPA gain traction and acceptance

6 CEOs will more fully appreciate the importance of avoiding false positives with any AI or RPA driven initiative

“Unless a very good mechanism is in place to sort legitimate payments from their fraudulent counterparts, many deserving beneficiaries might be impacted. In addition, wrongly accused UI claimants can—and sometimes do—file lawsuits against state agencies that accuse first and investigate later. When false fraud accusations, lawsuits, and negative headlines are involved, few parties walk away happy.”– Joy Forehand, Deputy Cabinet Secretary,

New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions


Competing for the FutureGary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad

The key for workers compensation executives is to leverage the best of AI and robotics to improve your speed to value… claims, underwriting, marketing, etc., while at the same time helping your insureds leverage innovative technologies to help improve their EH&S departments… ultimately driving lower claim frequency and severity.

If you don’t blaze a trail, one of your competitors likely will.

“One doesn’t get to the future first by letting someone else

blaze the trail.”

The Opportunity in Front of You


About Deloitte

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Speaker Bio


Kevin M. Bingham, ACAS, MAAAManaging Director, Deloitte [email protected] www.linkedin.com/pub/kevin-bingham/1/852/557(860) 725-3056

Kevin Bingham is a Managing Director in Deloitte Consulting’s Actuarial, Risk and Analytics practice and co-chair of the Casualty Actuarial Society’s Innovation Council. He has over 25 years of industry experience, including 20 years in consulting. His work involves consulting for the insurance, healthcare, and public sectors. The complex problems appearing during the course of his work experience has provided Kevin with dynamic research opportunities leading to the development of articles and presentations addressing important industry issues. To date, Mr. Bingham has published over 80 articles and spoken at over 100 events.

Kevin has helped organizations solve their toughest business challenges by turning their data into powerful insights through the use of data science. He has worked with reinsurers, insurers, state funds, and large self-insured companies to help them review and think strategically about their workers compensation, liability and property coverages. He is currently the opining actuary on over $5.7 billion in loss and LAE reserves, with over $2 billion coming from the workers compensation line of business.

Kevin is deeply committed to helping win the battle against opioid abuse and addiction. He has spoken regularly on the topic and published multiple articles addressing the crisis.

Other roles and responsibilities:- Member of the board, Deloitte Foundation for Business Analytics at Urbana-Champaign

- Member of the board, Lea’s Foundation for Leukemia Research

- Advisory board member and 13 year Chairman of the annual MPL ExecuSummit

- Sponsor, Human Capital People to People (P2P) Program – Domestic and international skills based volunteering

- Sponsor, Human Capital Women’s Initiative Parenting Roundtable

- Human Capital Local Service Area Champion - Hartford

Speaker Bio