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Abel MejiaW ld B kWorld Bank
World Water Week 2009, Stockholm Seminar on Financing Adaptation
Structure of the presentationStructure of the presentation
1) How big is the challenge?1) How big is the challenge?
2) H h ( dditi l)2) How much (additional) funding is available?funding is available?
3) Wh t i th W ld B k3) What is the World Bank doing?doing?
Estimates of Global Infrastructure Cost for AdaptationEstimates of Global Infrastructure Cost for Adaptation are in the 10 to 70 billion USD per year range
World Bank (2006): $9‐41 billion per year
Adaptation = Baseline x % Exposed to x % Increase in costs to
• Stern (2006): $4‐37 billion / yr
pCosts
= BaselineInvestments
x pClimate Risk
xclimate‐proof
Stern (2006): $4 37 billion / yr
• UNDP (2007): $5‐67 billion / yr by 2015
UNDP (2007) 47 109 billi / b 2015 i l d i l t ti di tUNDP (2007): 47‐109 billion / yr by 2015 includes social protection + disaster response
Oxfam (2007): NGO adaptation projects at least $50 billion / yrOxfam (2007): NGO adaptation projects ‐ at least $50 billion / yr
UNFCCC (2007): First sector‐based estimates $28‐69 billion / yr by 2030 – of which 8 billion is for water supply in developing countrieswhich 8 billion is for water supply in developing countries
Sector based cost of adaptationSector based cost of adaptation estimate prepared for UNFCCCp p
Sector Global Need (billion USD)
Share of developingcountries
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
14 50%
Water supply 11 80%Water supply 11 80%
Human health 5 100%
Coastal zone 11 40%
Other infrastructure 80‐130 25%
Source: Stratus Consulting presentation to Dialogue on Long‐Term Cooperative Action, Vienna –August 28, 2007
But when specified in NAPAs the adaptation costs p plook very small (current estimates from NAPAs)
USD million
• Estimates for 40 out of 49 LDCs
Bangladesh Mozambique Ethiopia Samoa Total
Coastal Zones 23 2 NA NA 166
• Stakeholder consultations
Disaster Preparedness
NA 3 10 5 58
Health NA NA 6 1 33
• Urgent, short-term adaptation pri riti
Infrastructure 2 NA 2 1 77
Ecosystems NA NA 8 0.4 112
T i NA NA NA 0 3 2 priorities
• Total costs, not l
Tourism NA NA NA 0.3 2
Water Resources
2 2 30 1 170
annual costs
• Limited sectoral i
Agriculture, Forestry,Fisheries
27 NA 2 0.3 160
economic analyses
Definition of Adaptation is a major challenge to have measures identified and financed
Vehicles for Climate Finance
Fund
GEF Global EnvironmentFacility
10 implementing agencies: UNDP, UNEP, WB, FAO, IADB, UNIDO, ADB, AfDB, EBRD and IFADGrants for projects related to six focal areas: biodiversity, climate change, international waters, land degradation, the ozone layer, and persistent organic pollutants
b f ld k b h h ) h lFCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
Part of World Bank Carbon Finance Mechanism. Two mechanisms: 1) Technical assistance 4 REDD reference scenario and strategy 2) Purchases certified emission reductions from selected countries
Adaptation F d
Adaptation Fund t d d
World Bank is trustee. GEF provides Secretariat. Adaptation fund is funded by a tax of 2% of tifi d i i d ti (CER ) i t d f CDM Ad t ti F d Fund created under
UNFCCCcertified emission reductions (CERs) on investors proceeds from CDMs. Adaptation Fund monetizes CERs and spends the proceeds on climate change adaptation projects. Sales in May and June approx. 12 million USD
EU GCCA EU Global Climate Change Alliance
The Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) aims at supporting the poorest and most vulnerable countries with respect to their capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change It Change Alliance vulnerable countries with respect to their capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. It will provide a platform for dialogue and financial and technical support for adaptation measures and the integration of climate change into development strategies. (Committed: 250 million EUR for 2008‐2010 plus funds for CC under European Development Fund)
GFDRR Global Facility for The GFDRR is managed by the World Bank on behalf of the participating donor partners and GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reductionand Recovery
The GFDRR is managed by the World Bank on behalf of the participating donor partners and other partnering stakeholders. The GFDRR provides technical and financial assistance to high risk low‐ and middle‐income countries to mainstream disaster reduction in national development strategies and plans to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Donors pledged 82 million USD over 4 years (2007 – 2010). Contribution so far 79 million USD.
WBG RR&EE program
Seems to be several under the Climate Investment Funds, notably the Scaling up Renewable Energy in Low Income Countries and the Energy Efficiency component under the Clean Technology Fund. The volume of 3.4 billion may reflect WBG lending to renewable energy and energy efficiency
Vehicles for climate change finance: Large Commitments, but so far small amounts mobilized for adaptation
Mitigation(Total Needs est.$220bn+ / year)
GEF
$ 0.25 bn WBG RE &
Carbon Market:
CDM&JI
~ $ 8 bn
Both
M&AFCPF
$0.2 bn
REDD
for FY09 EE Progam(IBRD/IDA/IFC/MIGA)
$3.4 bn
~ $ 8 bn
for FY09 M&A
Resources
GEF $ 0.25 bn
Adaptation
funding
$3 4for FY09 Climate
Investment
Funds (MDBs)Resourcesto address
Climate Change Adaptation
FundO h MDB
$6.1 bn
UNDP
$ 0.09‐ 0.12 bn
for adaptation
$ 0.3‐0.5 bn Other MDBs$3 bn
for FY09Private
Adaptation(Total Needs est
p
GFDRR $ 0.07 bn
EUGlobal ClimateChange Alliance
€ 0. 3 bn
Bilateral Donors
$ ?
Donors$ ?
FY09 estimates are projections
(Total Needs est. $30bn / year)
Funds ~$1.2 BiSource: World Bank (2009)
Climate Investment Funds~6 billion committed
Clean Technology Fund Strategic Climate Fund
Targeted programs with dedicated
Finance scaled-up demonstration, deployment and transfer of low carbon technologies
g p gfunding to pilot new approaches
with potential for scaling up
Forest Investment Program
Scaling Up Renewable Energy
in Low Income
Country Investment Plans Pilot Program for Climate Resilience
Reduce emissions from deforestation
and forest
ow co eCountries
Begin transformational change by use of
• Support countries’ development strategies
• Leverage financial products ofInternational Financial Institutions
• Stimulate private sector
Mainstream climate resilience
into core and forest degradation
change by use of renewable energy
• Stimulate private sector engagement
into core development
planning
±$1 billion
under design just approved
±$5 billion
Contribute to strengthening the knowledge baseContribute to strengthening the knowledge base
WDR 2010 on Development and Climate ChangeDevelopment and Climate Change (climate-smart development policies)
Economics of AdaptationEconomics of Adaptation (global adaptation costs with case studies in seven countries)
Sector & Region specific studies: Agriculture, Water; Transport, Forests, Biodiversity, Social Agriculture, Water; Transport, Forests, Biodiversity, Social
Low Carbon High Growth report in LCR, Adaptation study in Low Carbon High Growth report in LCR, Adaptation study in ECA; Economics of CC series in Africa etcECA; Economics of CC series in Africa etcECA; Economics of CC series in Africa, etc.ECA; Economics of CC series in Africa, etc.
LowLow--carbon growth country studies: Bcarbon growth country studies: Brazil; China, India, Indonesia; Mexico, Poland, South AfricaIndonesia; Mexico, Poland, South Africa
State and Trends of the Carbon MarketState and Trends of the Carbon Market
ib l d d li h iContribute new tools and delivery mechanisms
Climate Change for Development Professionals (CCDP) learningClimate Change for Development Professionals (CCDP) learning programGlobal Expert Team (GET) on Climate Change AdaptationGuidance Notes on climate proofing and adaptationGreening Infrastructure guidance note (to support INFRA Platform) Guidance on the use and leverage of various climate financeGuidance on the use and leverage of various climate finance instrumentsESMAP Energy Efficiency initiative Climate Change Data Portal New Climate Change website – WB pilot of new web governanceGHG A ti (E T t F t l t t IFC)GHG Accounting (Energy, Transport, Forests, real sector at IFC)Global City Indicators ProgramTracking of CC-related investments in WBG portfolioTracking of CC related investments in WBG portfolio
Different types of projects are exposed to yp p j pclimate change in different ways
Climate change model (22 GCMs)
Alternative Scenarios (A2, A1B
Projections of 5 hydrologic
model (22 GCMs)and B1) indicators
H d l i i di t W t t ff t dHydrologic indicator Water system affected
Change in annual net irrigation deficit Irrigation and drainage
Change in run‐off reliability (drought) Urban water supply & sanitationg y ( g ) pp y
Change in minimum base flow Rural water supply and sanitation
Change in run‐off reliability (flood) Flood control
Change in basin yields River basin management and multi‐purpose infrastructure
E i 2030 iddl GCM i A1BExposure in year 2030 – middle GCM, scenario A1B
Irrigation and Drainage Systems Rural Water Supply & Sanitation
Change in net irrigation deficit
Urban Water Supply & Sanitation
Change in minimum base flow
Flood control Urban Water Supply & SanitationFlood control
Change in run‐off reliability (drought)Change in run‐off reliability (flood)
Indicators have been evaluated for 7,000 basins in the Bank’s regions, for all GCMs and for three scenarios
This will allow Bank Staff to bring fairly detailed climate data to bear on their project preparation – the aim is eventually to make this material publicly available
Evaluation of consequences for Bank portfolio2030
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
tmen
ts
2030
A significant share of the World Bank’s Water Portfolio is at risk from exposure to
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
of
wat
er in
vest is at risk from exposure to
climate change
0%AFR MNA LCR ECA EAP SAR Bankwide
%
2050
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
stm
entsA screening tool is being
developed to identify at risk
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% o
f w
ater
inve
sp yprojects at design stage
0%AFR MNA LCR ECA EAP SAR Bankwide
%
Low Med High
Next stepsMake the large database available
Initially to Bank Staff ‐ later publiclyy p y
Integrate this type of information in planning at river basin or national / regional level
A pilot on best practice has been initiatedA pilot on best practice has been initiated
Integrate this type of information in project designA methodology has been prepared that may be used for gy p p ymulti‐purpose infrastructure
Evaluate robustness of treaties and institutional arrangements for transboundary basinsarrangements for transboundary basins
Work is underway
Develop a screening tool for at risk projectsll f h d l f h kInitially for hydropower – later for other at risk sectors
Reprogramming Water Supply Project in QuitoSupply Project in Quito
•Glacier reductionD i l d d •Drying moorlands and high lagoons•Change in flow patternChange in flow pattern•35% reduction on base flow from glaciers•Population Growth•Advance Rios Orientales project (Antisana)project (Antisana)
Take away messagesTake away messages
1) How big is the challenge?
Large in absolute amounts
Should be manageable when compared to total flows1) How big is the challenge?key challenge seems to be identification
of good projects
2) How much (additional) funding is available?
Large pledges
Additionality is a difficult issue
So far limited money paid in
3) What is the World Bank
y p
Strengthening the knowledge base
New tools and delivery mechanisms3) What is the World Bank doing?
New tools and delivery mechanisms
Climate Change as part of assistance strategies
Climate adaptation in projectsClimate adaptation in projects