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ABORIGINAL
HOUSING
OFFICE
Maria KevinManager, Research and Analysis
Evidence priorities in tenancy management
What we do
Demand modelling and forecasting
Targeted evaluation and research
Statistics to inform business needs
Fostering partnerships with Aboriginal research
Aboriginal people in NSW
3% of the NSW population – 260,655
21,000 in social housing (23% of Ab. households)
> 7,000 on the social housing wait-list
More likely to exit social housing tenancy (27% pa)
Strategies to increase and maintain Aboriginal tenancies
Selected projects
1. Forecasting Aboriginal Housing Demand and Supply
2. Tenant Support and Education Program Evaluation
1. AHO
HOUSING
DEMAND AND
SUPPLY MODEL
Rationale
Meet need for housing
Transparent planning and resource allocation
AHO Housing
Demand & Supply
ModelExamines the demand for houses compared to the supply of houses
projected to 2031
• Demand
• Hidden Demand*
• Supply
• We adopt a broader definition of need
• Include newly arising need through household formation
• Demand = already existing households
• Hidden demand = people predicted to form a new household if they could afford to –
o Every additional family in a household; and
o Individuals over 20 years of age in a household
• Supply = current supply of dwellings and planned dwelling builds
Definitions
Population projections for
Model build• Develop population projections – fertility, mortality and
migration
• Based on the Estimated Resident Population (ERPs) –re-working of the Census (adjusts for error)
• Aboriginal population is projected to 2031
• These projections have been used by a range agencies
What does the
current Model tell us?
• The model tells us there is an undersupply of housing for the Aboriginal Community for ALL income bands
And
• The undersupply will increase into the future if current conditions prevail
Total under supply for
Aboriginal people• The total undersupply of housing for the Aboriginal Community is
estimated to be 36,025 dwellings in 2017
• This is forecasted to increase to 90,901 in 2031 if current conditions prevail
• The undersupply is greater for Income Bands A and B
Income BandJune 2017
June 2031
Band A <45k ($2015) per year 10,855 30,124
Band B 45k-90k ($2015) per year 13,506 34,924
Band C 90k-135k ($2015) per year 3,487 8,720
Band D 135k+ ($2015) per year 6,160 15,101
TOTAL 36,025 90,901
Blacktown (C) 577
Greater Taree (C) 376
Newcastle (C) 362
Campbelltown (C) 325
Lake Macquarie (C) 323
Wollongong (C) 313
Dubbo (C) 279
Penrith (C) 276
Tamworth Regional (A) 263
Shoalhaven (C) 244
Wyong (A) 244
Coffs Harbour (C) 223
Moree Plains (A) 222
Kempsey (A) 207
Gosford (C) 205
Lismore (C) 205
Liverpool (C) 201
Tweed (A) 168
Sydney - SLA - SYD 161
Clarence Valley (A) 158
Top 20 LGAs with the Largest Gap for Band A in 2017 - <45k per year
The undersupply is larger in LGAs located in major metropolitan and in inner regional areas
The following four LGAs have the largest undersupply -
• Blacktown (C)• Greater Taree (C)• Newcastle (C)• Campbelltown (C)
The supply of housing is not uniform throughout the State
13
Blue = highest predicted undersupply
What is next in the
Model’s development?• Validating the model with 2016 Census data
• Further development with updated Census data will improve model
• Overlay of employment opportunities (infrastructure projects, NDIS)
• The role of economic conditions in housing formation
2. TENANT
SUPPORT &
EDUCATION
PROGRAM
EVALUATION
Conducted by ARTD for the Aboriginal Housing Office
• National Partnership Agreement on Remote Indigenous Housing (NPARIH) funding
• Provided grants to providers to design and implement local solutions
• Best practice design and delivery based on AHURI research
• Partnership and provides employment for Aboriginal people
Context of TSEP
Rationale
Community control =
Best practice in assisting Aboriginal people to sustain tenancies
Purpose: to meet the education and support needs of remote Aboriginal community housing tenants in NSW
Tenant Support &
Education Program (TSEP)
Housing provider Communities
Barriekneal Housing Lightning Ridge
Gunida Gunyah Collarenebri, Pilliga
Consortium Bourke/ Enngonia, Brewarrina/ Weilmoringle,
Coonamble, Dareton, Goodooga, Gulargambone,
Menindee, Murrin Bridge/ Lake Cargelligo/
Euabalong, Walgett, Wilcannia
PROGRAM COMPONENTS
COMMUNITY
ENGAGEMENT
INCENTIVES
AND REWARDS
CASE
MANAGEMENT
EDUCATION
HOUSE AND
HOME
MAINTENANCE
COMMUNITY
EVENTS
CHILDREN’S
CLUB
NEWSLETTER
REWARDS
PROGRAMS
WORKSHOPS
HOUSING
APPLICATION &
SUPPORT
HOUSING &
MAINTENANCE
PROJECT
OFFICER
YARD & HOME
CLEAN UP
INITIATIVE
TENANT
SUPPORT &
EDUCATION
PROGRAM
• How is the program working?
• What have been the results of the program?
• Should we consider long term investment in the program?
• Mixed methods using a Results Based Accountability (RBA) analytical frame
• Included a survey of over 100 tenants, interviews and forums
Evaluation scope and focus
• 767 households
• 11 Aboriginal TSEP staff
Program reach
10 Power & Water Usage
Workshops in 2017, 447people attended
9 Rental Assistance Days
with 91 people assisted
TenantEDUCATION
How much?Is anyone better
off?
• 98 placed on Origin’s hardship program
• 65 non-Origin customers linked to NSW Energy and Water Ombudsman for assistance
• Rental assistance days - 88 of the 91 attendees received a new or adjusted Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA)
• Over $13,000 was given in back pay to tenants
Tenant Education
My last bill was $2,000 – it is now
$200; the workshop taught me
things such as not to keep
boiling my jug all the time;
etc… It’s a great program for
old people – the power
workshop helped them out a lot
[community leader]
Incentives & Rewards
Before TSEP we had a very
low rental collection; now
we are getting close to
100%—96%, the highest
ever. All thanks to TSEP, the
rewards program mostly
[TSEP provider]
• 145 offered case management with 105 active cases
High Needs SUPPORT risk
How
much?
Is anyone better off?
• Only one eviction among tenants who received case management
• 53% of active cases had reduced their arrears over the period of case management
• 119 individuals supported with Housing Pathways applications
Housing ApplicationSUPPORT
How much?
Is anyone better off?
• 11 applications approved and applicants successfully housed in Bourke and Brewarrina
CONCLUSIONS
According to tenants and providers planned program outcomes are being realised –
Tenants are:
• better able to manage their finances and avert arrears
• developing practices that maintain their properties and minimise damage
• accessing appropriate support where high needs exist
Practical solutions delivering practical outcomes
CONCLUSIONS
Before TSEP, if people were in trouble with
their tenancy—with their arrears or their
maintenance issues—they would tend not to
ring us, afraid they would lose their tenancy.
They’re also answering their phones more
now we ring them [housing provider]
Directions Future
Case for further investment
Many ongoing structural challenges
TSEP well supported in communities and seen to
be addressing needs effectively
High levels of uncertainty for staff
Program Design
Future
• Build on strong educational focus
• Expand the use of partnerships
• Develop a shared framework and resources
• Extend program to other communities
Tenant Support and Education Project
A collaborative partnership between
Mid Lachlan Aboriginal Housing
Management Co-operative
Murdi Paaki Regional
Housing Corporation
Coonamble Local
Aboriginal Land Council
Bourke
(Enngonia)
Brewarrina
(Weilmoringle)
Lake Cargelligo/
Murrin Bridge
Goodooga Coonamble Menindee
Walgett Gulargambone Wilcannia
Dareton
One: Tenant Case Management
Two: Quarterly Newsletter
Three: Housing Application Support
Four: Community Family Fun Days
Five: Power and Water Usage Workshops
Additional Activities
Commonwealth Rent Assistance Support Days