ABOUT OUR FUTUREEurope is living a economical, financial and political crisis.

Urban and spatial planning, in the future, will be very different than it is today.

Bank system, real estate, technology, cities governance, welfare State, transportation, family composition and behavior, housing, natural resources, competitiveness, innovation, social cohesion, migrations, climate, energy , culture will, for sure, change and so will have to change urban and spatial planning.

ABOUT OUR FUTUREThe tendencies are not equal all over the world. But in Europe there are some common trends, although in different development stages, and political approaches.

Now we are in the beginning of a transition process. A big transition to an uncertain future, that will come, very quickly, either we are prepared or not. A transition in which a variable that is not very important today can assume a primordial importance in a few years.

ABOUT OUR FUTUREThe banking system:• Will take the lesson from last years; • Will restructure and establish boundaries with real estate.• Is finishing with the easy credit;• Will evaluate projects with more detail;

It is urgent to overcome present and short term problems.

The Governments will have to be more attentive about big investments, and will ask for more evaluation studies: territorial, economical, environmental, social and will take fewer risks and get, most probably, lower profits.

ABOUT OUR FUTUREHousing market:• Volume will have to decrease;• House prices will keep dropping in most places;• Prices are high compared with incomes and rents;• Renting is an alternative in several countries whose families can’t or don’t want to take the risk of buying houses; • Real state will have to face less benefit and more costs;• Recovery depends on the dialogue between industry and city management;• The real estate products in housing, industry and services are changing.

ABOUT OUR FUTUREHousing will continue to be a preoccupation of governments:

• Providing social housing;

• Regenerating old quarters;

• Improving housing to a sustainable energy consumption;

• Adapting houses to the new families, turning them more flexible and durable.

ABOUT OUR FUTUREPromoters:• First step – ask for deregulation;• Second step - look for new markets: over the next 25 years it is necessary to promote housing two billion people all over the world. It is necessary innovation in this industry. It is urgent to overcome present and short term problems.

ABOUT OUR FUTURENew technologies will have a great impact in planning main issues;•Expectancy of life that includes Nanotechnology (to reduce Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases or to improve regenerative medicine) ;• Mobility solutions with new urban design, new vehicles, transport systems and materials;• Energy systems with new technologies of renewable energies;• New materials for transportation and housing, such as roofs, glasses and walls;

ABOUT OUR FUTUREMultilevel governance:• Is opening the way to a better and integrated decision making;• Will improve organizations, in order to serve cities and communities better;• Operating at multiple scales in order to include different territories approaches proves that is much related with spatial planning, that has territorial basis.

ABOUT OUR FUTURE

Social expenditures of welfare state:• Are growing and will grow behind governments economic possibilities. More senior people will need more social care expenses. Higher taxes will be inevitable. • Will be reduced, looking for new ways to spend, without a degradation of quality. • Will be reduced and more carefully applied from several optics: economical, financial, environmental and territorial.

Public-private partnerships will try to mobilize the best of each partner. Citizens’ mobilizations for social and public causes will increase.

ABOUT OUR FUTURESocial tensions:

Social and religious tensions show tendency to grow.

Migration shall be an opportunity and not a problem. Facing migration as a opportunity represents integration between different cultures and cooperation with to achieve objectives

Ageing population shall not result in ageing tensions, between generations. It is necessary to prepare cities for ageing citizens.

ABOUT OUR FUTURETransportation as a big contribution to Greenhouse gas effect.Measures to decrease the Greenhouse effect:• Less consumption of oil (vehicle efficiency standards) and environmental taxes;• Tendency to diversify the combustible. Battery electric and hydrogen will be future. New hydrogen highways can be popular in a few years. New types of batteries such as nickel-metal hydride and lithium are non-toxic and recyclable;•New private and public transport systems will appear.

Medium and long trip travel distances will increase, following the trend. New transportation and communication models can chance the location patterns of activities.

ABOUT OUR FUTUREEuropean families:• Are more aged and with less children, but until later at home;• The percentage of senior people is growing;• The age of mother having the first child is going up; The percentage of one member families is growing; • Solidarity between family members is giving place to individuality.

Cities shall be prepared for this impact: economical, housing, social equipments and services, public space, transports and accessibility.

ABOUT OUR FUTUREThere is more opportunities to leisure, recreation and culture activities:

• Day working hours show a trend of diminishing;

• The age of retirement will be higher;

• The life expectancy is bigger.

ABOUT OUR FUTURECompetitiveness is upgrading. It is necessary to decide in real time. New opportunities are welcome in all cities, looking for investments. Looking for more with less will mobilize more competitiveness. It is necessary to mobilize more territorial cohesion.

Frontiers are changing from a fixed limit to a variable geography, according with the subject and the dynamic.

Innovation is a key for solutions: with materials, in processes, with methodologies, in governance, in politics.

ABOUT OUR FUTURE

There is a turning point:

• From the forecast to the uncertainty;• From determinism to probabilism; • From the application of manuals to strategic action.

Futures decisions will be base on uncertainty scenarios.

ABOUT OUR FUTURETerritorial cohesion:

Territorial cohesion is one of the pillars of Lisbon Treaty, alongside social and economic cohesion.

It is the spatial dimension of sustainable development.

Spatial planning does not have the status of independent area of competence, because it was not delegate to EU, by the State members.

The implementation of territorial cohesion will make spatial planning a EU’s competence?

ABOUT OUR FUTUREClimate change will have big impacts in Europe: local regional, national and transnational ones.

Climate change out of Europe will:• Turn agriculture less productive in North Africa; • Mobilize much more emigrants to Europe;• Transfer the agriculture markets;• Change touristic characteristics;• Ask for more precaution in flood events.

ABOUT OUR FUTURE

Global warming shall be efficiently fought:

• Greenhouse gas effects shall be reduced - carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, hydro fluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, water vapor, are high global warming potentials (GWP);• Increment the development of low carbon and adaptation technologies ;• Upgrade the carbon trading market.

ABOUT OUR FUTURECulture is changing.

The consumption model shall change. Europe shall look for better and not for more, for sustainable and durable products and materials, and not for consumable.

A more intelligent economic model, incorporating scientific knowledge, quality, cohesion, environment, cultural values, social values and the territorial values.

ABOUT OUR FUTURE

Spatial planners shall look for values such as: the defense of the territory, sustainability in the action, the respect for singularity and heritage, the application of ethics, the presence of precaution principle, equity and cohesion.

These are the main values that The New Chart of Athens 2003 defends and that the Serbian Town Planners Association translated to Cyrillic. Thank you very much.

ABOUT OUR FUTURE

Let us work so that next generations will like to live in European cities