Abrupt climate change and security in Peru

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**UNCLASSIFIED**

US DOE Environmental Security Brief (IN40/GlobalEESE) Environmental Security of Abrupt Climate Change in Peru First draft 11 November 2009 Public release 22 January 2011

Jennifer Gonzalez ([email protected])

SUMMARY

The following report was drawn up in response to scenario planning carried out with the Global Energy and Environmental Ecosystem (GlobalEESE) at the US Department of Energy. The Abrupt Climate Change team’s work in spring 2009, in conjunction with scientific research communities outside DOE, determined that shifting environmental conditions would likely create significant geophysical changes within a short time horizon. Peru emerged as an example of where critical vulnerabilities exist, and yet the potential risks are not well recognized within the security community. This report represents background to a larger scenario process initially meant to be conducted with DOE/GlobalEESE, whose work has now largely been transferred to Global Interconnections LLC and the US Air Force.

Chad Briggs, Washington, DC 21 January 2011

GEOGRAPHICAL EXTREMES OF PERU

Peru spans just over 1,285,000 km2 along the Pacific coast deep within the tropics from 3 degrees to 18 degrees South latitude, standing behind Brazil and Argentina as the third largest country in South America1. Peru is a state of diverse geographic and ecological extremes, with varying topography and climate among its three main regions: the Coastal region west of the Andes, the tropical Rainforest east of the Andes, and the Cordillera within the Andes2. The Andes form a mountain barrier against lower-troposphere easterlies that shapes climate patterns within the country3. To the west of the Andes, the South Pacific anti-cyclone and the Humboldt Current create an arid Coastal region that becomes progressively drier in the south, in some cases creating desert conditions; while to the east of the Andes, Atlantic air masses generate a warm, humid climate in the interior Amazon Rainforest4. The Andes form a series of north trending cordilleras, rising to elevations above 5,000 meters, which contain 70% of the world’s inter-tropical glaciers5.

THE CORDILLERA BLANCA

The Cordillera Blanca of the Peruvian Andes forms one quarter of the world’s tropical glaciers, which fulfills crucial roles in Peru’s local hydrological cycle as well as in the livelihoods of Peru’s population. 722 thin, crevassed, and slope-type glaciers compose the Cordillera Blanca, which spans 180km north-northwest to south-southeast, from 8°30´ to 10°S6. In the Cordillera, the annual oscillation of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) causes alternating dry and wet seasons. The duration of each season and the accumulation of precipitation within a given season vary with regard to altitude and orientation of the mountain slopes; however the wet season generally spans through the southern hemisphere summer from October to April, with an extended dry season for the remainder of the year. The Cordillera maintains homogenous temperature conditions throughout the year, yet has highly variable air humidity, moisture content, and precipitation7.


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Precipitation falling in the tropical Andes is initially stored within the mountain glaciers of the Cordillera, or in high-altitude tropical wetlands known as the Páramos, and then released gradually8. Most of the Cordillera Blanca’s glacialized watersheds discharge toward the southwest from Lake Conococha through the Río Santa to the Pacific Ocean. The Upper Rio Santa watershed has an area of 4900 km2, known as the Callejon de Huaylas, that relies on surface runoff from the Cordillera9. Glacial melt within the Cordillera provides the crucial function of offsetting these variations in precipitation, by supplying additional water to areas with uncertain or inadequate precipitation, most significantly the Pacific Coast. The majority of Peru’s population resides in the water-scarce arid coastal region, where its capital city Lima is located, while little of Peru’s population lives in the water-rich Amazon rainforest. The average precipitation in Lima is only 25mm annually, which cannot satisfy the demand for potable water in Peru’s largest city. Therefore, Lima and Peru’s other coastal areas rely on glaciers to increase supply, frequently relying solely on glacial melt for water supply in the dry season10.

In addition to the inter-tropical glaciers of the Cordillera, the Andes contain 35,000-77,000 km2 of high-altitude wetlands known as the Páramo, including glacier-formed valleys and plains, peat bogs, lakes, and wet grasslands with intermittent shrublands and patches of forest. The Páramo covers some parts of the Northern Andes, between 11° north and 8° S latitude. While there is no seasonality in the Páramo, daily temperatures vary more than 20 °C which determines frost and snow lines. Precipitation varies strongly from 700mm to 3,000mm, depending on altitude, wind direction and wind speed, and precipitation patterns in the Pacific and Amazon Basin. While the glaciers of the Cordillera compose a significantly greater proportion of the Peruvian Andes and contribute more substantially to Peru’s national water supply, the Páramo provides water for residents of the Andean highlands who rely on Páramo water for agricultural, industrial, and household uses as well as hydropower generation11.

CHANGING CLIMATE IN THE CORDILLERA BLANCA

The location of tropical glaciers and their characteristic precipitation patters make them especially sensitive to variations in climate. As they are located in low tropical latitudes but higher altitudes, tropical glaciers are subjected to higher levels of radiation. In addition, the wet season for tropical glaciers occurs during the summer when temperatures are highest, increasing glacial melt in lower zones. Tropical glaciers have two zones, a higher “accumulation” zone where snow accumulates and eventually transforms into ice causing glacier buildup, and a lower “ablation” zone which is the major source of glacial meltwater. Climate variation causes the ratio between accumulation and ablation zones to shift, changing the amount and pattern of glacial runoff. In retreating glaciers, the ratio between non-glacierised area and glacierised area increases and the total surface area of the glacier decreases12.

Despite generally homogenous annual temperatures, records of temperature in the Cordillera show an average warming of 0.09-0.15°C per decade from 1950 to 1994, while the majority of warming has occurred since the 1970s. The lower elevations west of the Andes experienced the greatest warming, while east of the Andes only experienced moderate warming. Increasing temperatures and freezing levels lead to increased melting and expose glaciers to more rain rather than snow, impacting near-surface relative humidity. Near-surface humidity levels have increased along with temperature, up to 2.5% per decade from 1950 to 1994, which results in more available energy in melting snow and ice; therefore, ablation increases in humid, cloudy conditions13. As climate variations such as changes in humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation may impact albedo and net radiation balance, they can accelerate or increase glacial melt. Further, recent studies show that future warming will increase with altitude in the lower troposphere, with temperatures increasing more at higher altitudes in the Andes than at lower elevations. The high mountains of Peru are among the areas in Latin America predicted to experience maximum temperature increases14.


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Precipitation trends in Peru are very weak and not well quantified, with few showing elevation-dependence15. Peru’s geographical extremes complicate accurate and comprehensive data collection, making data for precipitation sparse. Climate variations in Peru are exacerbated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which some scientists fault for drastic and often abrupt changes in precipitation. Contrary to temperature increase which causes gradual receding of glaciers, ENSO affects interannual glacier movement, both advance and recession. The most recent two phases of glacier advances both occurred amid cold La Niña conditions, demonstrating the close linkage between climate variations in the Pacific Ocean and changes in the glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca. El Niño periods of the past two decades have brought severe flooding in drier regions of Peru and decreased precipitation in wetter mountain regions, diminishing snow and ice accumulation and accelerating glacial retreat16. La Niña produces a cold and wet signal in the Andes while El Niño produces warm and dry signal in the Andes, creating thermal and hydrologic responses in the Andes which diminish glacier mass balance17. Other scientists do not find such a strong link between ENSO and precipitation, but rather attribute increasing temperature fluctuations to the phenomenon18. Increasing temperatures may result in more frequent ENSO and amplify its effects, which would directly impact glacier mass balance in the Cordillera19. While the close relationship between ENSO and the Andes climate has been established, the effects of future changes in ENSO conditions on glacier mass balance in the Cordillera remain uncertain.

ACCELERATED GLACIER MELT IN THE CORDILLERA BLANCA

Glacial melt in the Peruvian Cordillera has not been constant throughout the 20th century but rather was concentrated in two periods, the 1930s through the 1940s and the 1970s continuing through the present. In 1930, the Cordillera Blanca covered 800-850 km2 prior to over a decade of accelerated retreat. Following this severe glacial melt, the rate of retreat slowed to near equilibrium and in some cases even became glacier advance until the early 1970s20. Since the mid-1970s glacial retreat has increased steadily, losing an estimated 15-30% ice mass21. The Cordillera Blanca spanned 660-680 km2 in 1970, 620 km2 in 1990 and just below 600 km2 at the end of the 20th century. The 1997-1998 ENSO saw slight slowing or even mild glacier advance due to persistent La Niña cold seasons and snow, however retreat accelerated again, continuing today22.

Ten glaciers have been monitored since 1932, each indicating glacial melt ranging from 590m to 1910m through 1994. Glaciers in Peru clearly demonstrate accelerated retreat in recent decades, such as the 4.9m yr-1 rate of retreat on the Quori Kalis was almost three times faster from 1983 to 1991 than 1963 to 1978 and the 290,000 m3 yr-1 volume loss was over seven times as great within the same period23. Some studies show the Qori Kalis retreating forty times faster today than two decades ago24. The Quelccaya ice cap is also melting at an accelerated rate, and will likely disappear by 2030-204025. Glacial melt has affected the shape and types of these glaciers within the Cordillera Blanca. Most small-scale and low-lying glaciers have disappeared, while slope-type glaciers have receded without significant change in shape and valley-type glaciers have changed shape significantly due to the loss of their glacial tongues. The overall effect is the ongoing transformation of valley-type glaciers to appear as the same shape as the slope-type glaciers and consequently, more direct exposure to radiation than in previous years26. The impact of increased exposure to radiation perpetuates the potential for accelerated glacial melt in coming decades.

THE FUTURE CLIMATE OF PERU

Despite observed Changes in temperature and climate patterns in the Peruvian Cordillera, various uncertainties persist about Peru’s future climate conditions and the impacts of those conditions on the livelihoods of Peru’s population. General circulation models (GCMs) portraying the global future climate with twice the amount of preindustrial carbon dioxide concentrations demonstrate that the rate


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of temperature rise in the lower troposphere will increase with altitude. GCMs predict maximum temperature increases in the high mountains of Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and northern Chile, signaling increased warming for the high-altitude glaciers of the Cordillera27. Some modeling efforts demonstrate that many lower-altitude glaciers will completely disappear in the Cordillera within the next 10-20 years, while others maintain that glaciers below 5,500m will completely disappear by 201528.

In many cases GCMs are considered reasonable predictions of future climate conditions, yet in the case of Peru, they are not the most advanced or accurate forecast of future climate conditions. The Peruvian Andes possess both a complex topography and steep climatic gradients from the tropical rainforests to their east to the desert to their west; GCMs are insufficient to resolve the diverse climatic gradients that exist between Peru’s geographical extremes. Additional models have made predictions based on analysis of projected temperature change in the free troposphere, however these models do not fully account for the changes in “surface variables” such as precipitation and relative humidity that can significantly affect glacier mass balance. Previous modeling efforts have been unable to provide a comprehensive picture of Peru’s future climate conditions due to uncertainty, data gaps, and Peru’s distinct geography.29

Rocío Urrutia and Mathias Vuille use a regional climate model to quantify 21st Century climate change in the tropical Andes, which can better account for the complexity of Peru’s geography and hydrological patterns. Urrutia and Vuille’s regional climate model predicts similar future temperature conditions to the General Circulation Model, finding warming at all elevations in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca with the greatest temperature rise increasing with altitude. The temperature is expected to increase dramatically on the Eastern slope of the Andes, of approximately 4.4°C at low altitudes under 500 m and greater than 4.5°C at high altitudes over 3500 m. Warming also occurs along the Western slope of the Andes, by 3.5°C at 500m to 4.8°C above 4000m a.s.l. The regional climate model also predicts a general increase in precipitation at altitudes up to 2000 m a.s.l. on both Eastern and Western slopes of the Andes. The greatest relative increase in precipitation is expected to occur over the Pacific Ocean along the coast of northern Peru and Ecuador between 0°S and 8°S. However, above the altitude of 2000 m a.s.l. no significant changes and in some cases a decrease in precipitation, especially on the Western slope above 4000 m a.s.l., is expected according to the model.30

While Urrutia and Vuille simulate a detailed regional climate model (RCM) that accounts for numerous caveats specific to Peru’s diverse climate, it cannot fully predict the impacts of these changes on glacier mass balance in the Cordillera. The model suggests that that greater temperature increases at higher altitudes would not have additional precipitation to offset the impacts of warming, which in turn suggests further negative mass balance for Andean glaciers. However, as other modeling efforts, this regional climate model sustains a level of uncertainty herein caused by a lack of vertical resolution. The RCM clearly determines that temperature increases will cause the rain-snow line to rise which negatively impacts glacier mass balance; however without vertical resolution this RCM cannot predict the exact implications of the rise in freezing levels on the glaciers in the Cordillera31. In addition to the effects on glacierization, an upward trending rain-snow line due to temperature increase would likely lead to increased seasonality in the Páramo, could reduce precipitation, and directly impact water runoff and timing32.

Other predictions for future change with a high level of uncertainty include major shifts of atmospheric circulation patterns, including equatorial easterlies, westerlies and tradewinds which are all subject to change if the energy content of the earth system changes. Such changes in atmospheric circulation could impact surface humidity and glacier mass balance33. Another large uncertainty is the potential for a “Permanent EL Niño,” and the uncertain impacts of continuous ENSO which could possibly include increased average annual runoff in Peru34.


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VULNERABILITY TO ABRUPT CLIMATE EVENTS

These gradual variations in climate conditions increase the vulnerability of abrupt climate change events in Peru, the frequency and impacts of which are equally difficult to quantify. Numerous glacial lakes cover the Cordillera, which could burst their banks at any time especially under higher temperature conditions. Accelerating glacial melt increases runoff into glacial lakes, increasing their volume and the hydrostatic pressure on the retaining barrier which heightens the possibility that they will overflow or that the barrier will burst. A breach in any of these banks would cause waters to rush down the slopes of the Andes, creating intense flooding that could destroy households and livelihoods. This risk is compounded by the instability of ice banks surrounding recently formed glacial lakes, which are vulnerable to frequent serac avalanches. These avalanches propel ice chunks or rocks into the lakes, creating shocks which can also cause sudden overflows or bursting ice banks. In March 2005, a large ice chunk broke off the Quelccaya glacier resulting in a flood that inundated nearby lower grazing grounds35.

Glacier melt also increases the likelihood of mudslides and rockslides, as it frees the rocky slopes of the Andes Mountains that had been stabilized by the weight and tension of the glaciers. Further, the Andes and the greater Pacific Coastline lie in a region of recurrent seismic activity, which can increase the likelihood of rock slides, avalanches, and rupturing barriers in glacial lakes. The Peruvian government acknowledged the risk posed by glacial lakes by introducing a surveillance program and creating overflow tunnels, which have already been necessary; in 2002, overflow tunnels helped drain the lake and prevent the loss of human life after an avalanche that launched several million rocks into Laguan Safuna.36

Glacial lakes create a double-edged sword for abrupt climate change. Although they pose the aforementioned risks, they are also crucial for storage for the river system that provides water to Peru’s residents throughout the year, especially in dry seasons and along the Western coast37. This also amplifies the impacts of any abrupt change, as a breach in a glacial lake will cause immediate natural disasters but after it is breached will no longer function as a water source. The same is true with gradual glacial melt, which initially increases runoff, but when the glaciers no longer exist there will be no extra water supply in the dry season, resulting in abrupt changes in streamflow38. Decreasing water storage capacity in glacial lakes and abrupt changes in streamflow create risks for potable water supply to support Andean livelihoods. Such abrupt change coupled with changes in precipitation can cause severe droughts, in a country with a history of droughts on its Western coast and an evidently high sensitivity to changes in climate.

IMPACTS OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE ON PERUVIAN LIVELIHOODS

Water Scarcity

Peru is the most water-stressed state in South America due to its population distribution and insufficient water supply. Most of the South American countries along the Pacific Coast, foremost being Peru, depend upon water from glacial melt to augment their lacking water supplies. Approximately 70% of Peru’s population lives in the coastal desert, where only 2% of Peru’s national water supply is located39. Peru’s capital city Lima and the areas surrounding it are exceptionally reliant on glacial waters, as urban growth increases vulnerability to water scarcity40. Further, many rural areas to the West of the Andes have little or no alternative to glacial meltwater, which they utilize for various purposes from agriculture and irrigation, to households and hydropower plants. The Economic and Social Research Consortium (CIES) estimates that glacial melt will result in the loss of seven billion cubic meters of fresh water, affecting water supplies throughout Peru and chiefly in Lima41.


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Peru’s freshwater supply is barely adequate to support its current population, as 2 million out of the capital city Lima’s 8 million residents have no water service and several rural livelihood groups already experience inconsistencies in supply or insufficient supply42. Changing climate conditions will exacerbate episodes of water scarcity as well as lead to long-term, widespread water scarcity throughout Peru. Estimates for the onset of water scarcity vary, especially given uncertainty in demographic changes and the aforementioned uncertainty in climate modeling for Peru. Some suggest very generally within the next two decades while others suggest more specifically that Peru will become a water-scarce country by 202543. Nigel W. Arnell examined three potential abrupt changes in global climate: regional cooling following thermohaline collapse, accelerated climate change due to positive feedbacks, and “regime change” i.e. permanent ENSO conditions. Should these global phenomena occur, Arnell found that between 33 and 63 million South Americans would experience an increase in water scarcity by 2055. Accelerated climate change would have the greatest effect on water scarcity in South America, increasing water stress for 63 million people by 2055 and 83 million people by 208544.

Glacial melt in the Cordillera Blanca effects both seasonal and inter-annual variation of runoff in catchments. The melting of glaciers in the Cordillera can account for up to 100% of runoff during the dryseason, and acts to supplement seasonal and annual variation in catchments; therefore glacier retreat will decrease dryseason catchments. Approximately 71% of glacier melt in the Cordillera Blanca drains to the Pacific Ocean via the Río Santa catchment, while nearly 29% drains to the Atlantic Ocean via the Río Marañon catchment45. During the rainy season, the Río Santa catchment is fed by both rainfall in the mountains and glacier melt, producing nearly 400 m3/s; yet in the dry season the rivers are fed exclusively by glacier melt, only producing around 55 m3/s46. The Río Santa catchment is used intensively for agriculture in areas such as the Callejon de Huaylas, for hydropower production in the Cañon del Pato, and for both agriculture and industry in the large cities and rural communities along the Pacific Coast47. However, the reservoir capacity of the Río Santa catchment basin is highly responsive to variations in the rate of glacierization in the Cordillera Blanca. Therefore, livelihoods and industries that rely on freshwater from the Río Santa catchment will be strongly impacted by changes in supply do to glacial melt48. Unfortunately, despite existing climate modeling efforts, the knowledge about the impact of glacier melt on freshwater catchments cannot be quantified49.

Following gradual glacier melt, Peru is subject to abrupt droughts and water shortages in its already water stressed regions. Gradual glacial melt changes the pattern of water volume flowing into rivers of respective catchment basins through two phases. In the first phase, the volume of freshwater contributed to the catchment by accelerated glacial melt will be greater than that by precipitation; in the second phase, the amount of non-glacierized area will increase and volume contributed by glacial melt will decrease50. Therefore, glacier retreat may initially cause increases in water quantity to the Río Santa catchment but run-off regulation will be drastically impacted following the disappearance of the glaciers. Without the glaciers of the Cordillera, precipitation will not be naturally stored and glacial melt will no longer contribute to the catchment quantity51. Uncertainty factors into the effects of abrupt change with three concerns: when maximum discharge will occur, what is the minimum freshwater supply following maximum discharge, and when will this minimum occur. Accurate predictions regarding these three concerns vary, depending on whether modeling is calibrated to data from the past twenty or fifty years, meaning that there will be little warning of abrupt climate change and ensuing impacts52.

Declining Agricultural Productivity

While Peru holds 5% of the global freshwater supply, it is unevenly distributed throughout the country, as over 98% available water is located in the rainforest east of the Andes while the greatest agricultural need is experienced west of the Andes53. Greater than 50% of Peru’s agricultural products


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are produced along its water stressed coastal plains and the Western slopes of the Andes Mountains, with agricultural inputs contributing 7.9% to Peru’s GDP. The majority of agricultural production is intended for export, whereas Peru relies on imports and food aid for 43.9% of its net food consumption54. Agriculture is responsible for nearly 85% of total water consumption in Peru, and its dry cultivated land is highly dependent on runoff from the Cordillera to generate essential water supply. Without runoff regulation by glaciers in the Cordillera, Peru will need to locate alternative water supplies to sustain agricultural output55.

Agricultural production in Peru is already responsive to changes in climate conditions, with domestic cereal production varying 22.4% annually compared to the global mean of 3.5%56. The Peruvian Ministry of the Environment recently published its 2009 National Environmental Study which confirms that climate change caused the loss of 80,000 hectares of potato and 60,000 hectares of white corn in the past twelve crop years57. Climate affects many of the variables impacting Peru’s varying rate of agricultural production including the seasonal relationship between temperature and water supply, carbon dioxide concentrations, and both pests and diseases. Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations can generate added productivity of staple food crops, yet may be offset by changes in temperature and water supply. Nigel W. Arnell describes the interaction between agricultural productivity and temperature, where increasing temperatures generally lead to longer growing seasons yet higher temperatures that can cause heat stress and water shortage diminish productivity. Therefore, regions such as Peru where production is limited by temperature or water supply will likely see the largest reductions in agricultural productivity58. Fluctuations in Peru’s hydrological cycle are anticipated yet very uncertain, ranging from a potential permanent ENSO state to decreases in gradual glacial melt, therefore their impact is also difficult to assess. The unreliable water supply generated by anticipated changes in hydrological patterns will exacerbate agricultural and ecosystem stresses, therein negatively affecting biodiversity and productivity.

Therefore, due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations, temperatures, and gradual glacial melt, agricultural production may increase significantly in the short term. Employment in the agricultural sector is currently expanding, especially in the agricultural areas surrounding Lima, and will likely continue to do so in the near future59. However, short term increases will likely be followed by drastic and potentially abrupt decreases in agricultural production due either to abrupt climate events such as flooding or to droughts following glacial melt. Therefore, livelihoods reliant on agriculture for subsistence are highly vulnerable in the long term to the agricultural impacts of abrupt climate change, especially given poor infrastructure in many rural farming areas and less developed areas60.

Current commercial agricultural practices within Peru may exacerbate the potential effects of abrupt climate change. Agricultural practices formerly reserved for small livelihoods groups interfered less with hydrological practices than current intensive use in the Páramo for livestock grazing and pine planting. Such demanding uses change runoff patterns, increase erosion, and transform evaporation, gradually changing the hydrological cycle61. Intense cultivation of already water stressed lands also contributes to hydrological change, and increases the need for irrigation. These practices will continue under the short term anticipated increase in agricultural production. As higher temperatures make land easier to cultivate in the Andes and population increases, irrigation needs will grow62.

In direct livelihoods terms, small farms may not be impacted as highly as large farms because larger farms are generally more specialized in crop production and therefore cannot adapt as easily to changing climate conditions. However, for those small farms located near the margins of subsistence or the margins of abrupt climate change, any changing conditions resulting in declining production will increase rural poverty. The World Bank estimates that Latin America as a whole will suffer losses of US $35.1 billion to $120 billion annually from declining agricultural production. As each livelihood group


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possesses a different level of economic mobility, the livelihoods level impacts of declining agricultural production continue to be uncertain63.

Impacts on Hydropower Production

Hydropower is the most widely used form of renewable energy worldwide, and will be greatly impacted by changes in glacial melt. Peru relies on hydropower for up to 80% of its energy generation, from many rivers fed by glaciers or glacial lakes. While accelerated glacial melt should initially increase energy generation, seasonal variations in hydrological patterns will make any increases inconsistent. The industries responsible for generating and capable of regulating hydropower production, such as engineering and construction industries, will be pressed to utilize water more efficiently as sudden increases in glacial flows may be followed by even more sudden decreases in flows.

Following glacial melt, Peru may experience drastic decreases in hydropower capacity as glacial melt will no longer contribute to river flows. 15 hydropower plants totaling 2,480 MW of power production rely on glacier runoff, including the Mantaro River plant which generates 32% of Peru’s total electricity and supplies power to 70% of Peru’s industry yet is also one of the most negatively impacted hydropower plants.64 Without contributions of water supply from glacial melt, hydropower industries will need to build more storage dams or design other technologies to help sustain production.

Currently, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change classifies the lack of water for hydropower generation throughout western South America as “critical,” namely in Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador65.

Reductions in Biodiversity

The eastern Andes form the most biologically diverse area in the world. Latin America is home to 27% of the world’s mammals, 37% of plants, 37% of reptiles, and 43% of amphibians. According to the World Bank, Peru is one of the world’s ten most biologically diverse countries and one of the fifteen countries in which fauna are most vulnerable to extinction66. Climate change can impact biodiversity by changing ecosystem types in specific regions and by changing the variety and amount of species within a given ecosystem type. In general, species most at risk are those near the climatic limits of ecosystem type or with the very specialized habitat requirements. In Peru, temperature increases can lead to upward ecosystem shifts, i.e. boreal forests replacing tundra, although ecosystems cannot adjust faster than 0.05°C per decade67. Temperature rise can cause desertification in mountain habitats that house extensive biodiversity and threaten critical mountain habitats. The habitats of cold-climate species such as mountain tapirs, anurans, and high-altitude flora will drastically decrease with temperature increases as great as 3°-4°C during the twenty-first century.

Species within the Páramos, which are unique even within Peru itself, are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The ecosystem services provided by the Páramos are already being impacted by temperature change and experiencing severe reductions in population of mountain flora and fauna68. As dew points shift in altitudinal location due to temperature change, the formation of clouds and precipitation patterns can change which may disrupt cloud forests, also an important source of biodiversity. Changes in hydrological patterns in Peru following glacial melt threatens water supply to ecosystems, could cause a decrease in forest cover on western Andes slopes, and lead to desertification along the coast. Furthermore, these potential changes are immediate, irreversible, and cumulative69.

Spread of Disease

One of the most difficult impacts to quantify is the effects of climate change on the development of disease vectors in Peru, and the ensuing impacts on health, morbidity, and mortality.


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Changing climate conditions can alter the distribution of disease vectors and increase their frequency following abrupt climate events. Flooding, a highly probable form of abrupt climate change can dramatically increase the frequency of disease vectors which have climatic limitations. Such disease vectors may currently be limited by lower temperatures yet may be able to survive in the higher temperatures of the twenty-first century. During past El Niño events, flooding has resulted in epidemics throughout northern coastal regions of Peru, dermatological diseases relative to summer temperature increases, and hypothermia relative to heat waves70.

Further, the IPCC ranks mortality and morbidity resulting from abrupt climate events second to malnutrition as the most significant health impacts of climate change worldwide. Malnutrition and the spread of diseases such as malaria and cholera are probable in Peru71. However, areas such as Peru’s coast which forecast drought and drier conditions may experience a decrease in malaria and the spread of disease, as there may be less standing water for disease vectors to breed72.

Peru’s crop production may also suffer from increased spread of disease, with fungal diseases in maize, potatoes, wheat, and beans becoming more common with increased rainfall and humidity. Peru has already felt the effects of such diseases during recent El Niño events73. Additional global health impacts possible in Peru include cardiorespiratory diseases from decreases in air quality, temperature-related health effects like heat stress, and increasing water-borne diseases from excess capacity in sewage systems74. While much more research is necessary to understand the potential impacts of climate change on disease in Peru, initial reports predict increased potential for disease transmission and uncertain changes in mortality during dry and hot seasons.75

Temperature Forced Deforestation

As the Amazon basin to the east of the Andes forms a significant source of moisture within Peru’s hydrological patterns and regional atmospheric circulation, deforestation and changes in land cover can considerably impact Peru’s climate. Further, changes in land cover will impact the carbon cycle and likely exacerbate regional climate change76. However, Peru is subject to intense land use changes as a result of temperature increases and changing precipitation patterns. The boreal forests on the western slope of the Andes and the Amazon basin are vulnerable to temperature-forced deforestation, wherein forests die due to changes in temperature, and both show evidence that large scale die off may already be occurring as Peru’s forest cover decreased by 0.4% from 1990-2000 77.

Temperature forced deforestation may in turn exacerbate glacial melt due to feedback mechanisms. As an area of tropical forest dies due to higher temperatures or drought, the rate at which adjacent areas of forest undergo the same effect is commonly accelerated by feedback mechanisms. Without necessary soil nutrients, forests can rapidly become bare which raises temperatures, reduces precipitation, and can lead to biome flip. If deforestation is great enough, these feedbacks can also disrupt water supplies along the Amazon and other crucial rivers, negatively impact global carbon balance, increase temperatures further, and accelerate glacial melt in the Andes. Despite the uncertainty of these complex feedback effects, they are possible and have occurred throughout climate history, as in Saharan Africa approximately 5500 years ago78.

Impacts on Culture and Tourism

Peru’s economy will be most significantly altered by changes in agricultural and hydropower production as a result of future climate conditions. However, Peru’s tourism industry will also be directly affected by the changing climate in the Andes, which currently contributes an estimated $3.6 million to Peru’s economy. The Andes Mountains, especially Peru’s tallest mountain Mt. Huascaran, generate revenue from mountain climbing, biking, canoeing and rafting, with the latter two entirely dependent on water resources. Such uses created a significant local tourism and recreation industry


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that is very vulnerable transformations in glaciers and mountain geography resulting from abrupt climate change79.

Glacier retreat has already affected the Quechua and Aymara cultures of Peru, who find spiritual, religious, and healing value in the glaciers of the Andes Mountains. For these cultures, the glaciated peaks, or apus, are considered religions icons. The apus are held responsible for water sources and soil fertility by serving as the residence for the Illapa, a god revered for its ability to produce water and damage crops through hail. Until the ritual was recently outlawed due to ablation, tens of thousands of Peruvians practiced the Qoyllur Riti pilgrimage by climbing to a glacier that faces the glacial peak of Ausangate to collect portions of ice and distribute them on their fields to ensure fertility. While this impact may not be as dire as water scarcity, economic distress, and loss of hydropower production, it will threaten the way of life for entire livelihoods groups within Peruvian society80.


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11 Buytaert, Wouter, et al. "Human impact on the hydrology of the Andean páramos." Earth-Science Reviews 79

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14 Bradley, Raymond S., Mathias Vuille, Henry F. Diaz, and Walter Vergara. "Threats to Water Supplies in the

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Abrupt climate change and security in Peru