Accelerated near Future Sea Accelerated near Future Sea Level Rise (slr) a Given basedLevel Rise (slr) a Given basedLevel Rise (slr), a Given, based Level Rise (slr), a Given, based upon the Florida Stratigraphic upon the Florida Stratigraphic ggRecord, Implications for GEERRecord, Implications for GEER

John F. MeederJohn F. MeederDepartment of En ironmental ScienceDepartment of En ironmental ScienceDepartment of Environmental ScienceDepartment of Environmental Science

Allegheny CollegeAllegheny CollegeMeadville, PA 16335Meadville, PA 16335Meadville, PA 16335Meadville, PA 16335

PURPOSE OF TALKPURPOSE OF TALKPURPOSE OF TALKPURPOSE OF TALK

Establish that higher sea level stands are the Establish that higher sea level stands are the Establish that higher sea level stands are the Establish that higher sea level stands are the norm not the exceptionnorm not the exception

Stop wasting time and effort in denialStop wasting time and effort in denial Stop wasting time and effort in denialStop wasting time and effort in denial Expect major sea level changesExpect major sea level changes Plan and manage for change, it’s going to Plan and manage for change, it’s going to

happen and faster than people thinkhappen and faster than people think

Eocene to Eocene to HoloceneHoloceneHoloceneHoloceneGeology Geology Map of Map of FloridaFloridaFloridaFlorida

NOTE:NOTE:OLDER OLDER OLDER OLDER

PLEISTOCENE PLEISTOCENE SEA LEVEL SEA LEVEL

TERRACES IN TERRACES IN TERRACES IN TERRACES IN DARK DARK

BROWNBROWN

(from Florida Atlas)(from Florida Atlas)

PROBLEMPROBLEMPROBLEMPROBLEM

Most of South Florida is less than 7m and mostMost of South Florida is less than 7m and most Most of South Florida is less than 7m and most Most of South Florida is less than 7m and most of the Everglades Basin less than 3m above of the Everglades Basin less than 3m above present sl and is therefore prone to inundationpresent sl and is therefore prone to inundationpresent sl and is therefore prone to inundation present sl and is therefore prone to inundation by rising sea level.by rising sea level.

THE REAL PROBLEM THE REAL PROBLEM

Florida sea levelFlorida sea levelFlorida sea level Florida sea level curvecurve

(b d t ti hi(b d t ti hi(based upon stratigraphic (based upon stratigraphic relationships)relationships)

Blue is above pslBlue is above pslRed is below pslRed is below psl

Common formation names Common formation names in right columnin right columnin right columnin right column

Sources: Alt and Brooks Sources: Alt and Brooks 1966; Meeder 1975, 1979, 1966; Meeder 1975, 1979,

1986; Puri and Vernon1986; Puri and Vernon1986; Puri and Vernon 1986; Puri and Vernon 1958, 1967; Richards and 1958, 1967; Richards and

Palmer, 1968;Palmer, 1968;othersothers

Sea LevelSea LevelSea Level Sea Level Record for Record for

E t C t fE t C t fEast Coast of East Coast of North America North America

based upon based upon stratigraphicstratigraphicstratigraphic stratigraphic onlaponlap--offlap offlap relationshipsrelationships

(Vail and Mitchum (Vail and Mitchum 1977)1977)

Comparison between glacial ice cover and interglacial sea Comparison between glacial ice cover and interglacial sea level stands and prediction of near future slrlevel stands and prediction of near future slr

Pleistocene Pleistocene (Modified from Puri and Vernon)(Modified from Puri and Vernon)

Nearfuture

HOLOCENE TRANSGRESSIONHOLOCENE TRANSGRESSIONHOLOCENE TRANSGRESSIONHOLOCENE TRANSGRESSION

End of Pleistocene sl was End of Pleistocene sl was --50m50m End of Pleistocene sl was End of Pleistocene sl was 50m50m Rate of slr was higher in the earlier part of Rate of slr was higher in the earlier part of

the Holocene until a new pseudothe Holocene until a new pseudo equilibrium equilibrium the Holocene until a new pseudothe Holocene until a new pseudo--equilibrium equilibrium with global climate was reachedwith global climate was reachedN 4 000 l f lN 4 000 l f l Next 4,000 yrs slower rate of slrNext 4,000 yrs slower rate of slr

Rate of slr began serious acceleration several Rate of slr began serious acceleration several decades ago and industrial age Global climate decades ago and industrial age Global climate change produced another inequilibriumchange produced another inequilibrium

Robert A. RohdeRobert A. Rohde ,2008,2008Robert A. RohdeRobert A. Rohde ,2008,2008

GS331 OCEANOGRAPHYGS331 OCEANOGRAPHYM i t bl i t d d l li t lM i t bl i t d d l li t lMarine stable isotope records and paleoclimatologyMarine stable isotope records and paleoclimatology

The figure on the left is the oxygen The figure on the left is the oxygen isotope record from the Greenland isotope record from the Greenland

GRIP iceGRIP ice core. The interval between core. The interval between 80 and 20ka is highlighted in each 80 and 20ka is highlighted in each

panel to illustrate thepanel to illustrate the abrupt nature of abrupt nature of climate variability found in this time climate variability found in this time

l h d d fl h d d finterval. The d18O is a record of air interval. The d18O is a record of air temperature over greenland. Up in the temperature over greenland. Up in the

diagram reflects warming. Down diagram reflects warming. Down g f gg f greflects colder conditions. The reflects colder conditions. The

magnitude of themagnitude of the climate variations climate variations g fg freflected in the d18O excursions in this reflected in the d18O excursions in this

high latitude location were large, high latitude location were large, p h p d 15 C d i th p h p d 15 C d i th perhaps around 15oC during the perhaps around 15oC during the

largestlargest interstadials.interstadials.

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Much higher sea levels are a geological factMuch higher sea levels are a geological fact Much higher sea levels are a geological factMuch higher sea levels are a geological fact Sea level rise is presently out of equilibrium Sea level rise is presently out of equilibrium

with Atmospheric C0with Atmospheric C0 and Global and Global with Atmospheric C0with Atmospheric C022 and Global and Global temperaturetemperatureS l l i d d S l l i d d Sea level is expected to respond to Sea level is expected to respond to atmospheric conditions very soonatmospheric conditions very soon

Response will be very fast based upon Response will be very fast based upon geological recordgeological record

IMPLICATIONS TO GEERIMPLICATIONS TO GEERIMPLICATIONS TO GEERIMPLICATIONS TO GEER

Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration

d f i i d hd f i i d h need to focus on anticipated changeneed to focus on anticipated change important to continue GEER because it will important to continue GEER because it will

t d t d th ti b ff b f f h t th ti b ff b f f h t extend extend the time buffer before freshwater the time buffer before freshwater supply collapsesupply collapse

needs to focus on raising freshwater table at the needs to focus on raising freshwater table at the needs to focus on raising freshwater table at the needs to focus on raising freshwater table at the expense of agricultural and urbanization expense of agricultural and urbanization

(especially (especially in the Transverse Glades and in the Transverse Glades and ( p y( p yCoastal areas Coastal areas nownow))