AcceleratingWorldwidePlug-inElectricVehicleMarketDevelopment:5PolicyInterventions

ScottHardman&GilTalPlug-inHybrid&ElectricResearchCenter

UniversityofCalifornia,Davis

29August2018

Outline

1. IntroductiontothePH&EVCenter

2. IntroductiontotheInternationalEVPolicyCouncil

3. 5PolicyInterventions

4. Summary

29August2018 2

IntroductiontothePH&EVCenter

29August2018 3

InstituteofTransportationStudies

InstituteofTransportation

Studies

STEPS PH&EVCenter 3Revolutions/FutureMobility NCST

29August2018 4

PolicyInstituteforEnergy,Environment,andtheEconomy

EnergyInstitute

PH&EVCenter

ResearchersDr.GilTal,PEVMarkets,TravelBehaviorDr.TomTurrentine,WorldMarket,supplyanddemandDr.KenKurani,ConsumerStudiesDr.AlanJenn,PEVRegulationsandMarketModelsDr.AngelaSanguinetti,EnergyFeedbackSystemsDr.ScottHardman,GlobalPolicy,ConsumeradoptionDr.Jaehyun Lee,GISandtraveldataanalysisDr.Debapriya Chakraborty,TransportationeconomicsDr.YanXing,ChinaCenterandPH&EVCenterDr.ChrisNitta,ProfessorofComputerScienceDr.AriaBerliner,NewMobilityProgramManagerDahliaGaras5ResearchStaff,programmers,visitingscholars

10GraduateStudents

12UndergraduateStudents280+publications,42papersin2017,17+underreview

29August2018 5

6

• Questionnaireswith30,000PEVowners• Non-EVbuyersurveyswith25,000carbuyersinUS

QuestionnaireSurveys

• OBDdataon600+vehicles• GPSdataon54,000PEVsfromOEMs

Onroaddatacollection

• 9,000,000Level2chargingevents• 3,400,000DCfastchargingevents• VehicleReportedChargingEvents

InfrastructureData

• 48,000,000vehiclesin3states• 14,000,000Householdsvehicleownership

RegistrationData

WeusemultipledatasourcestoresearchtheEVmarketinCaliforniaandUSA

PH&EVCenter DataCollection

IntroductiontotheInternationalEVPolicyCouncil

29August2018 7

InternationalEVPolicyCouncil

• 25researchers,at15Institutions,in13Countries• Australia,Belgium,Canada,China,France,Germany,Netherlands,Norway,

Portugal,SouthKorea,Sweden,UK,andUSA

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29August2018 9

• Sweden- April2016• Montreal- June2016• Shanghai- August2016• WashingtonDC- January2017• London- June2017• Stuttgart- October2017• WashingtonD.C- January2018• Oslo- May2018• Futureworkshops:

• Kobe- October2018• WashingtonD.C- January2018• Lyon- May2018• California- October2018

Workshops

PolicyBriefReviewProcess

10

5PolicyInterventions

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ScopeofPolicyBriefs

Plug-inElectricVehicles(PEVs),including:• BatteryElectricVehicles(BEVs)• Plug-inHybridElectricVehicles(PHEVs)

• NotHybridElectricVehicles

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5PolicyInterventions

• ConsumerEngagement• PurchaseIncentives• ReoccurringandIndirectIncentives• Infrastructure• RegulatoryMechanisms(NEVandZEV)

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ConsumerEngagement

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WhyisEducatingConsumersImportant?

Awareness

Knowledge

Decision

Purchase

Consumerswon’tbuyEVsiftheyarenotknowledgeableaboutthemandthebenefitsofthem.• Awareness:consumersknowPEVs,incentives,charging

stationsetc.exist• Knowledge:consumersknowwhatanEVisandthe

prosandcons• Decision:consumersconsideriftheywouldpurchase

thevehicle

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ConsumerEngagementisLaggingBehindtheMarket

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2018AlreadyownaPEVActivelyshoppedforanelectricvehicleGatheredsomeinformation,butnotreallyseriousyetTheideahasoccurred,butnorealstepstakenHavenotconsidered—butmaybesomedaywewillHavenot—andwouldnot—considerbuyingaPEV

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(July)

USAn

nualPEV

Sales

PHEV BEV

Kurani 2017,Hardman2018EVVolumes2018

AHolisticApproachtoEngagementisNeeded

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Awareness

Knowledge

Decision

Purchase

• TraditionalMedia(MarketingCampaigns)

• PEVRideandDrives&PEVExperienceCenters

• Dealereducation

FinancialPurchaseIncentives

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29August2018 19

TaxCredit(e.g USA)- Incentiveamount:$7,500- Youpay:$32,687outofpocket

Rebate(e.g CA)- Incentiveamount:$2,500

- Youpay:$32,687outofpocket

Grant(e.g UK)- Incentiveamount:$6,000- Youpay:$26,675outofpocket MSRP:$30,680

+$1995tax

TaxWaiver(e.g prev.WA)- Incentiveamount:6.5%MSRP($1995)

- Youpay:$30,680outofpocket

FourDifferentTypesofFinancialIncentives

IncentivesareIncreasinginImportanceOverTime

29August2018 20Jenn,Hardman,Lee,&Tal2018

Nissan Leaf Prius Plug−in

Chevrolet Volt Model S

2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

YearPr

obab

ility

Change in purchase decisionNo changeAnother plug−in vehicle

A non plug−in vehicleNot to buy/lease a vehicle at all

Don't know

• Q:IfthefederaltaxcreditwerenotavailablehowwouldthisimpactyourdecisiontobuyyourPEV?

• “Nochange”meanstheywillstillbuytheirPEV.

FinancialPurchaseIncentives- Recommendations

• Incentivesmoreimportantforlateradoptersthanearlyadopters.• Shouldnotberemovedtooearlyinthemarket.

• Closertheyarereceivedtothepointofpurchasethemoreeffectivetheycanbe.• IncentivesshouldbelowerforPHEVswithshortdrivingranges(higherforBEVs

andPHEVswithlongranges).• Incentivesarelessimportantforbuyersofhigh-end/luxuryPEVsorforpersons

ofhighincome.

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Reoccurring/non-financialincentives

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Reoccurring/non-financialincentives

• HOV,bus,ortransitlaneaccess• Parkingincentives(free,discounted,preferential

locations)• Tollwaivers/discounts• Restrictedzonefeewaivers/discounts• Annualvehicletax/feeexemptions

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ReoccurringIncentiveImpactDiffersBetweenRegions

CaliforniaHOVlaneaccessisaprimarymotivationfor25-40%ofbuyersinSFandLA

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NorwayFreetollshavelargeimpacton50%ofPEVbuyers

• Importanceofincentivesdependsonlocalconditions,consumerpreferences,regulationsinplaceetc.

Reoccurring/Non-financialIncentives- Recommendations

• AnyinterventionthatmakesPEVownershipeasier,cheaper,ormoreconvenientcanbeeffectiveinpromotingPEVs

• Incentivesusedwilldependonlocation,saturationrate,consumerpreferences,regulatorypowerofpolicymakers

• IncentivesshouldalsodifferentiateBEVs,longrangePHEVs,andshortrangePHEVs

• Canbeeasiertoimplementcomparedtopurchaseincentives

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Charginginfrastructuredevelopment

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Charginginfrastructuredevelopment

Charginglocations• Home(whileathome)• Work(whileatwork)• Public• CorridorCharginglevels(NorthAmerica)• Level1• Level2• DCFast

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PublicChargingenablesmoreeVMTbutisnotaprerequisiteforEVadoptiontheUSA

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ChargingInfrastructureDevelopment- Recommendations

• Homelocationchargersmostimportantfollowedbywork,thenpublic• Chargelevelneedstobeoptimizedforspecificuse.Level1isfineforshorttrips

andlocationswithlongdwelltimes.• Chargingshouldnotbefreeasthiscanincreasecongestionandreduce

dependability• Chargingshouldbemanagedbypricing,location,chargingspeeds,andsmart

charging.

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RegulatoryMechanisms

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RegulatoryMechanisms

• Introducedin1990• RequiresOEMstosell“ZEVs”which

includesPHEVs,BEVs,FCVs• OEMsmustobtainacertainnumberof

creditsbysellingZEVs

CaliforniaZEVProgramRegulatedOEMs OEMsthatsellmorethan

20,000vehiclesperyear

Credits1 7%in20199.5%in20207-12%by2025

Cancreditsbesavedforfutureyears?

Yes

Technologicalspecificity CertainportionofrequirementmustbepureZEV(BEVorHFCV)

Creditspervehiclesold 0.4to4

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SalesofPEVsinZEV&nonZEVStates

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0123456

2018

PEV

MarketShare(%

)

NonZEVstates

• TheZEVmandatecreatessupplyandsalesinZEVandnonZEVstates.

Autoalliance.org

RegulatoryMechanisms- Recommendations

• RegionswithoutZEVmandatesmaywanttoconsiderimplementingsucharegulationtosimilarlysignaltheirintenttoacceleratethetransition.

• Theimpactofthiscouldbe:• Increasedvehiclesupplyandnumberofvehiclemodelsinstate• IncreasesalesofPEVs

• PHEVsandBEVsshouldbecreditbaseonperformance(eVMT,range)• ZEVworksaspartofanholisticapproachtogetherwithpurchaseincentivesand

infrastructuredevelopment.

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Summary

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TopFiveKeyTakeaways

• Makingvehicles,infrastructure,andincentivesavailableisnotenoughtoincreaseawarenessandknowledge.Amoreproactiveandwidespreadapproachisneeded.

• Financialincentivesaremoreimportantwhenapproachingmainmarket.Theirphaseoutneedstobecarefullyconsidered.

• Reoccurringincentivescanhavestrongregionaleffects,buttheymaynotbealongtermsolution(HOV/buslanescongestion,lossofparkingrevenueetc.)

• Homelocationchargingisthemostfrequentlyusedandmostinfluentialinpurchasedecisionandvehicleusage.Infrastructureisnotabarrierforearlymarketitisanenablerformainmarket

• TheZEV(andnowNEVinChina)hasregionalandinternationaleffectsonPEVmarket.ThoughPEVmarketsuccesscanbearchivedwithoutthis(e.g Norway,WashingtonState).

29August2018 35

ScottHardmanshardman@ucdavis.eduGilTalgtal@ucdavis.edu

Plug-inHybrid&ElectricVehicleResearchCenter

ThanksAcknowledgementsTheInternationalEVPolicyCouncilisfundedbyClimateWorksFoundationwithsponsorshipfromPaulG.AllenPhilanthropies

ContributingAuthorsScottHardman,TomTurrentine,Jonn Axsen,GeorgeBeard,Nicolo Daina,ErikFigenbaum,DahliaGaras,SuzanneGoldberg,AukeHoekstra,Niklas Jakobsson,AlanJenn,PatrickJochem,Sten Karlsson,NealeKinnear,KenKurani,DenisNaberezhnykh,MikeNicholas,PatrickPlötz,JosePontes,NazirRefa,BenjaminSovacool,DanielSperling,FrancisSprei,Bert Witkamp,andGilTal

phev.ucdavis.edu/international-ev-policy-council-policy-briefs

Additionalslides

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Removalofincentives

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0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

NetherlandsPHEVSales

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

DenmarkBEVSales

Removalofincentives

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-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

Q42015

Q12016

Q22016

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

BEVMarketShare(%

)

GeorgiaBEVMarketShare

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6%

3%

6%

7%

16%

17%

26%

28%

45%

45%

FederalTaxIncentive(US$7,500)

StateRebate(CVRP)(US$2,500)

NotatallImportant SlightlyImportant ModeratelyImportant

VeryImportant ExtremelyImportant

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50.9%

59.7%

76.2%

82.3%

84.7%

86.1%

71.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

NISSANLEAF

CHEVROLETVOLT

FORDC-MAXENERGI

FORDFUSIONENERGI

TOYOTAPRIUSPLUG-IN

TESLAMODELS

ALL(unweightedsample)

willbuyaPEV WillbuyanICE Iwillnotbuyanewcar

ZEVCredits

29August2018 42

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Cred

itsperveh

icle

BEV(2018-) UnblendedPHEV(2018-) BlendedPHEV(2018-) 2009-2017Credits

PHEVs

ChevroletBolt TeslaModelS(100kwh)2018NissanLeafToyotaPriusPrimePHEV

29August2018 43

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

BayArea LosAngeles SanDiego Sacramento RuralAreas

NissanLeaf ChevyVolt ToyotaPlug-InPrius