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14 May 2019
Bernard Salt AMThe Demographics Group
2019 StarRez APSAA Conference
Accommodating the Millennials:
Demographic outlook for the
higher education market
2019 GDP USDbn
1. United States 21,410
2. China 15,544
3. Japan 5,362
4. Germany 4,417
5. India 3,155
6. France 3,060
7. United Kingdom 3,023
8. Italy 2,261
9. Brazil 2,257
10. Canada 1,909
11. Republic of Korea 1,778
12. Russian Federation 1,754
13. Spain 1,584
14. Australia 1,582
15. Mexico 1,285
2029 GDP USDbn
1. China 30,458
2. United States 29,531
3. Japan 6,892
4. India 6,793
5. Germany 6,548
6. France 4,385
7. United Kingdom 4,113
8. Brazil 3,402
9. Canada 3,191
10. Italy 3,006
11. Republic of Korea 2,706
12. Australia 2,497
13. Spain 2,322
14. Russian Federation 2,247
15. Indonesia 2,113
Australia is a good place to be... now and over the coming decade
Source: International Monetary Fund; The Demographics Group
SLIDE #
Australia has found a unique solution to the baby bust
Source: The Demographics Group
Net annual growth in Australia's working age population (15-64) between 1960 and 2050
10m 19m 38m
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
SLIDE #
Japan must find other solutions to a contracting workforce
Source: : Based on World Bank data; The Demographics Group
Net annual growth in Japan’s working age population (15-64) between 1960 and 2050
93m 127m 108m
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
196
0
196
2
196
4
196
6
196
8
197
0
197
2
197
4
197
6
197
8
198
0
198
2
198
4
198
6
198
8
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
202
4
202
6
202
8
203
0
203
2
203
4
203
6
203
8
204
0
204
2
204
4
204
6
204
8
SLIDE #
Immigration (and education) drives Australia... 30 million by 2030
Source: Statistics New Zealand; The Demographics Group
Components of net population growth in Australia between 1982 and 2030
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration
15 20 25 30
The Australian education market is remarkably diverse
Berlin 13%London 36%
Paris 22%
Madrid 20%
Mumbai 1%
Shanghai 0%Tokyo 2%
Seoul 4%
Singapore 29%
Darwin 28%Cairns 29%
Alice Springs 29%
Auckland 39%
Wellington 27%
Adelaide 28%
Perth 39%Buenos Aires 13%
Miami 39%
San Francisco 36%
Pittsburgh 4%
Toronto 47%New York
29%
Johannesburg 6%
Moscow 13%
Vienna 32%
Brisbane 28%
Melbourne36%
Dubai 83%
Stockholm 30%
Sydney 39%
Canberra28%
Proportion of city population comprising international-born residents as measured by local censuses
8,000km
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Montreal 33%
Vancouver 43%
SLIDE #
New acronyms for our newest tribes
Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice SuburbsPUMCINS …
Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life …NETTELs
Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement SavingsKIPPERS …
Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead …LOMBARDs
Source: The Demographics Group
Source: Based on United Nations Population Division data; The Demographics Group
Australia’s connections into China can go further into the future
Population
M
City 2018 2000
1 Shanghai * 26 14
2 Beijing * 20 10
3 Chongqing * 15 8
4 Tianjin 13 7
5 Guangzhou * 13 7
6 Shenzhen * 12 7
7 Chengdu * 8 4
8 Nanjing * 7 4
9 Wuhan * 8 7
10 Xi’an * 7 4
Population
M
City 2018 2000
11 Hong Kong * 7 7
12 Dongguan 7 4
13 Hangzhou * 6 3
14 Foshan 7 4
15 Shenyang 7 5
16 Suzhou 6 2
17 Haerbin 6 4
18 Qingdao * 5 3
19 Dalian 5 3
20 Jinan 5 3
Population
M
City 2018 2000
21 Zhengzhou * 5 2
22 Changsha * 4 2
23 Changchun 4 3
24 Kunming * 4 3
25 Shantou 4 3
26 Ürümqi 4 2
27 Hefei 4 2
28 Shijiazhuang 4 3
29 Ningbo 4 2
30 Taiyuan 4 3
Cities connected by direct flights into Australia not in this list:
• Xiamen, Fuzhou & Haikou* Cities connected by direct flights into Australian cities
Asian and
Indian
influences are
rising... our
consumer
markets
respond
quickly to
external
influences
Nationalities by country of
birth in Australia and
Greater Melbourne
between the 2011 and
2016 censuses
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
2016
United Kingdom 1,088,000
New Zealand 518,000
China 510,000
India 455,000
Philippines 232,000
Vietnam 219,000
Italy 174,000
South Africa 162,000
Malaysia 138,000
Sri Lanka 110,000
Germany 103,000
South Korea 99,000
Change 2011-16
-1%
+7%
+60%
+54%
+36%
+19%
-6%
+12%
+19%
+27%
-5%
+33%
Greater
Melbourne
-2%
+18%
+72%
+51%
+33%
+18%
-8%
+11%
+25%
+27%
-6%
+43%
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
More workers in the 30s & early 40s pushing to career peak
Australian population by single year of age 2008-2018 and 2018-2028
40 6020 80
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100
2008-2018: 3.8 million (21.2m to 25.0m) 2018-2028: 4.1 million (25.0m to 29.1m)
18 28
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics GroupSource: Based on Department of Education data; The Demographics Group
The delivery of Higher Education services is a growth industry
Australian University enrolments between 2001 and 2017
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Stu
dents
Total domestic students Total overseas students
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Tertiary students cluster in big cities… and there’s scope to grow
2016
1. Melbourne 283,000
2. Sydney 282,000
3. Brisbane 132,000
4. Perth 99,000
5. Adelaide 73,000
6. Canberra - Queanbeyan 36,000
7. Gold Coast - Tweed Heads 27,000
8. Newcastle - Maitland 22,000
9. Wollongong 16,000
10. Sunshine Coast 11,000
Students per 1,000 residents
2016 2011
65 53
63 52
60 52
52 49
57 50
83 79
44 41
47 46
56 51
37 32
Full and part-time university student numbers living in top ten cities at the 2016 Census
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0M
ar-
19
61
De
c-1
96
1S
ep
-196
2Ju
n-1
96
3M
ar-
19
64
De
c-1
96
4S
ep
-196
5Ju
n-1
96
6M
ar-
19
67
De
c-1
96
7S
ep
-196
8Ju
n-1
96
9M
ar-
19
70
De
c-1
97
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ep
-197
1Ju
n-1
97
2M
ar-
19
73
De
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97
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ep
-197
4Ju
n-1
97
5M
ar-
19
76
De
c-1
97
6S
ep
-197
7Ju
n-1
97
8M
ar-
19
79
De
c-1
97
9S
ep
-198
0Ju
n-1
98
1M
ar-
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82
De
c-1
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ep
-198
3Ju
n-1
98
4M
ar-
19
85
De
c-1
98
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ep
-198
6Ju
n-1
98
7M
ar-
19
88
De
c-1
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ep
-198
9Ju
n-1
99
0M
ar-
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91
De
c-1
99
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ep
-199
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n-1
99
3M
ar-
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94
De
c-1
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ep
-199
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ar-
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ar-
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ar-
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ar-
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ar-
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De
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ep
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n-2
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ar-
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3Ju
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ar-
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8
Perc
ent change %
Years of prosperity have created a culture of aspiration
Per cent change in Australian GDP by quarter (constant price) from 1961 to 2018
Fraser
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Menzies
Whitlam
GST
GFCHawke
Source: OECD, FRED, The Demographics Group
The way we live has changed … and so too have expectations
Source: House plans created by Sawmill Designs
Today
1950s
I stopped eating smashed avocado … and now I own a castle
SLIDE #
More time is being allocated to learning prior to working
Source: The Demographics Group
0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1979
Child Teen OldAdult
71
2019
Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetiredAdult
82
1939
Child Adult Old
63
Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia
The rise of
the
knowledge
worker is
driving
Australian
prosperity
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Jobs ('000) added/lost by
industry in Australia
between February 2000
and February 2019
Australia February 2000 – February 2019: up 4.0m (8.7m – 12.7m)
February 2000 – February 2019
Jobs grown: 4,235,000
Jobs contracted: 248,000
Net jobs added: 3,987,000
Education
& Training
Admin &
Support
Mining
Financial &
Insurance
Public
Admin
& Safety
Wholesale
Trade
Rental/
Hiring &
Real Estate
Info Media &
Telecoms
Manufacturing
Agriculture/Forestry
& Fishing
Construction
Arts &
Recreation
Electricity/Gas/
Water & Waste
Transport/
Postal/
Warehouse
Healthcare
& Social
AssistanceRetail Trade
Accom. &
Food
Other
Services
Professional/
Scientific/
Tech.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Investment in education pays dividends
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75
Postgraduate
BA
Trade Certificate
Year 10
Year 9
20 40 60 7030 50
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
The hollowing-out of Middle Australia jobs
Occupations by skill level at the 2016 Census
Skill Level Job Type
1 Doctor, Engineer, Midwife
2Police Officer, Dental
Hygienist, Chef
3Electrician, Butcher,
Mechanic
4Truck Driver, Waiter,
Barista
5Sales Assistant, Cleaner,
Café Worker
Relevant Total
Share of growth
2011-16
46%
13%
1%
21%
18%
100%
Growth
2011-16
290,000
80,000
10,000
130,000
110,000
620,000
Jobs in
2016
1,490,000
1,140,000
1,360,000
2,520,000
1,720,000
8,220,000
Share in
2016
18%
14%
17%
31%
21%
100%
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Australia's biggest job centres are getting bigger
Top 20 job centres in Australia at 2016 plus net growth in jobs from 2011: census data
Place of work 2016Change
2016-2011
1. Sydney 321,000 69,400
2. Melbourne 221,000 35,000
3. Perth City 137,000 3,100
4. Brisbane City 122,000 6,300
5. Adelaide 108,000 7,400
6. Dandenong 66,000 12,000
7. Docklands 56,000 23,900
8. Parramatta 50,000 7,000
9. North Sydney 49,000 5,900
10. Macquarie Park 49,000 9,900
Place of work 2016Change
2016-2011
11. Southbank 39,000 5,500
12. Hobart 38,000 3,200
13. Richmond 37,000 6,900
14. Pyrmont - Ultimo 37,000 7,200
15. Civic Canberra 34,000 2,600
16. Clayton 33,000 4,500
17. Geelong 31,000 5,600
18. Surry Hills 30,000 6,500
19. St Leonards 30,000 3,800
20. Parkville 29,000 6,900
Source: The Demographics Group
Skills required to
future-proof a career
STEM
&
Skills
• Continuous learning
• In-house training
• Online learning
Entrepreneurship
&
Enterprise
• Harvest ideas
• Mentoring
• Creative thinking
Agility
&
Resilience
• Embrace change
• Agile workspace
• Fit-in-ability
Source: Icons made by Roundicons, Freepik from www.flaticon.com; Shutterstock; The Demographics Group
Australia is exceptionally tolerant of other cultures to theextent that we nick bits and pieces that we think make uslook more cosmopolitan and less colonial—sad buttrue—and so again student accommodation fits into thisnarrative… we showcase rather than shun multinationalenclaves
Australia is a young growing nation with an ageingworkforce… we need strong immigration, a tolerantsociety, and an education system that delivers skilledworkers into the future… student accommodation fitsinto this narrative
The Australian workforce is tilting towards education
and skills and not just prior to work… there’s a growing
demand for continuous learning so that workers can
learn, unlearn and relearn the skills required to remain
workplace relevant
Introducing Australia’s bachelor hotspot …
Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34 at the 2016 Census
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Byron Bay
1.63:1
Roxby Downs
1.41:1
Hotspot suburbs for single men and
women aged 25-34 at the 2016 Census
“Highway of Love”
Barrier Highway
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