Achievable Penetration Rates

Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil

Achievable Penetration RatesAchievable Penetration Rates

The Pace of Conservation AcquisitionThe Pace of Conservation Acquisition

April 17, 2009April 17, 2009

Conservation Resources Advisory CommitteeConservation Resources Advisory Committee

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Outline in Two PartsOutline in Two Parts

Part 1Part 1– Revisions to Ramp Rate AssumptionsRevisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions

Part 2Part 2– Sensitivity TestingSensitivity Testing

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Revisions: Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual RatesTamping Down Max Annual Rates

Based on Comments & Further ThoughtBased on Comments & Further Thought

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Revisions: Industrial Revisions: Industrial Slowed down two important new measures:Slowed down two important new measures:

– From From New Measure - Fast New Measure - Fast toto New Measure - Medium New Measure - Medium» Energy Project ManagementEnergy Project Management» Integrated Plant Energy ManagementIntegrated Plant Energy Management» Represent about 20% of industrial savingsRepresent about 20% of industrial savings

Retrofit Ramp Rates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

New Measure Fast

New Measure Medium

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Revisions: Distribution EfficiencyRevisions: Distribution Efficiency Formerly All at “Formerly All at “New Measure - MediumNew Measure - Medium”” Now: Split by Measure BundleNow: Split by Measure Bundle

– System Voltage by LDC method at System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - FastNew Measure - Fast

– System Voltage EOL method at System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow – Light System Improvements at Light System Improvements at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow – Major System Improvements at Major System Improvements at New Measure - SlowNew Measure - Slow

Retrofit Ramp Rates

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

New Measure Fast

New Measure Medium

New Measure Slow

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Revisions: CommercialRevisions: CommercialMeasureMeasure 30-Mar30-Mar PreviousPreviousLPD Package-NewLPD Package-New LO 20FastLO 20Fast LO FastLO FastLPD Package-NRLPD Package-NR LO 20FastLO 20Fast LO FastLO FastLighting Controls Interior-NewLighting Controls Interior-New LO MediumLO Medium LO FastLO FastLighting Controls Interior-NRLighting Controls Interior-NR LO MediumLO Medium LO FastLO FastGlass-RetroGlass-Retro Retro in 20Retro in 20 Retro in 10Retro in 10Demand Control Ventilation-NRDemand Control Ventilation-NR LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO MediumRoof Insulation-NRRoof Insulation-NR LO FastLO Fast Retro in 10Retro in 10Computer Servers and IT-RetroComputer Servers and IT-Retro LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO MediumStreet and Roadway Lighting-NRStreet and Roadway Lighting-NR LO SlowLO Slow LO MediumLO Medium

Achievability Ramp Rates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Year

Fra

cti

on

of

An

nu

al A

pp

licab

le M

easu

re

Sto

ck A

ch

ievab

le

LO Fast

LO Medium

LO Slow

LO 20Fast

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ResidentialResidential Consumer Electronics Consumer Electronics

– New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 yearsNew analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years– LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014

Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater– Emerging Technology Ramp RateEmerging Technology Ramp Rate

Annual Lost-Opportunity Penetration Rates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Year

Fra

cti

on

of

An

nu

al U

nit

s A

ch

eiv

ab

le

LO 5P

LostOp_ResTV

LostOp_ResSTB

HPWH

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ResultsResults

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Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity

2010 20

11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017 2018

2019

$30$6

0

$100>20

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

MWa

YearLevelized Cost ($ per

MWh)

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RetrofitRetrofit

2010 20

11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017

2018

2019

$30$5

0$60

$100>20

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

MWa

YearLevelized Cost ($ per MWh)

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Comparative Max RatesComparative Max Rates66thth PLAN PLAN 20102010 20142014 20192019

Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWhLost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 3535 120120 200200

Retrofit @ $60/MWhRetrofit @ $60/MWh 140140 160160 160160

Total Total 175175 280280 360360

55thth PLAN PLAN 20052005 20092009 20142014

Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWhLost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 1515 4040 8585

Retrofit @ $60/MWhRetrofit @ $60/MWh 120120 120120 120120

Total Total 135135 160160 205205

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Reality Check Reality Check Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 Expect higher in 2008Expect higher in 2008

– Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA tooMost programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too

– Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLsOf the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs» But CFL savings not in 6But CFL savings not in 6thth Plan targets Plan targets

Many New MeasuresMany New Measures Higher Avoided CostsHigher Avoided Costs Federal Standards PushFederal Standards Push State Code Revisions in the WorksState Code Revisions in the Works

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55thth Plan Targets Seemed Daunting Plan Targets Seemed Daunting

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Re

sourc

e (

aM

W)

Lost-Opportunity

Retrofit

5th Plan Targets(130 to 150 MWa)

Historic Performance

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Re

sourc

e (

aM

W)

Alliance Programs

BPA and Utility Programs

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Part 2: Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity TestingRamp Rate Sensitivity Testing

Purpose: Purpose: – What is the Value of Going Faster?What is the Value of Going Faster?– What is the Cost of Going Slower?What is the Cost of Going Slower?– What are the Resource Consequences?What are the Resource Consequences?– What are the Revenue Requirements?What are the Revenue Requirements?

Tool: Portfolio ModelTool: Portfolio Model– Test Slow & Fast Achievable PenetrationTest Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration

Issue: What Ranges?Issue: What Ranges?

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Ramp Rate Sensitivity TestingRamp Rate Sensitivity TestingStaff ProposalStaff Proposal

Lost-OpportunityLost-Opportunity– SLOW: SLOW: Up to $60 / MWh levelized costUp to $60 / MWh levelized cost– FAST: FAST: Up to $120 / MWh levelized costUp to $120 / MWh levelized cost

Non-Lost-OpportunityNon-Lost-Opportunity– SLOW: SLOW: 55thth Plan Rate Plan Rate– FAST: FAST: Washington I-937 rateWashington I-937 rate

» All Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly pacedAll Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly paced

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Test Slow & Fast Deployment RatesTest Slow & Fast Deployment Rates

20102010 20142014 20192019

Lost-Opportunity SLOWLost-Opportunity SLOWUp to $60/MWhUp to $60/MWh

2929 100100 168168

Lost-Opportunity FASTLost-Opportunity FASTUp to $120/MWhUp to $120/MWh

3636 123123 206206

Non-Lost Opportunity SLOWNon-Lost Opportunity SLOW55thth Plan Maximum Plan Maximum

120120 120120 120120

Non-Lost Opportunity FAST Non-Lost Opportunity FAST All Cost-Effective @$60/MWh in 10 years (I-937)All Cost-Effective @$60/MWh in 10 years (I-937)

160160 160160 160160

Proposed Annual Maximum Limits on Deployment in MWa

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Annual Deployment Rates for Annual Deployment Rates for Non-Lost Opportunity ResourcesNon-Lost Opportunity Resources

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Maxi

mum

Annual S

avi

ngs

SLOW: Non-LOFAST: Non-LO

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Annual Deployment Rate for Annual Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity ResourcesLost Opportunity Resources

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Maxi

mum

Annual S

avi

ngs

SLOW LOFAST LO

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Annual Deployment Rates for All Annual Deployment Rates for All Conservation ResourcesConservation Resources

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Maxi

mum

Annual S

avi

ngs

SLOWFASTHistorical Ramp

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Cumulative Deployment Rate for Cumulative Deployment Rate for Non-Lost Opportunity ResourcesNon-Lost Opportunity Resources

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Maxi

mum

Cum

ula

tive

Savi

ngs SLOW: Non-LO

FAST: Non-LO

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Cumulative Deployment Rate for Cumulative Deployment Rate for Lost Opportunity ResourcesLost Opportunity Resources

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Maxi

mum

Cum

ula

tive

Savi

ngs FAST: LO

SLOW: LO

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Cumulative Deployment Rate for Cumulative Deployment Rate for All ResourcesAll Resources

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Maxi

mum

Cum

ula

tive

Savi

ngs

SLOW: Cumulative

FAST: Cumuative

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Achievable Penetration Rates