Active Quant: Applied Investment Research in Emerging

Active Quant: Applied Investment Research in Emerging Markets

John B. Guerard, Jr.

Director of Quantitative Research

McKinley Capital Management, LLC

3301 C Street

Suite 500

Anchorage, AK 99503

(907) 563-4488

[email protected]

September 2018

Presented at the FactSet Investment Symposium, Orlando, FL, October 19-21, 2018.

Active Quant: Applied Investment Research in Emerging Markets

Abstract

Active quantitative models for stock selection use analysts’ expectations, momentum, and

fundamental data. We find support for simple and regression-based composite modeling using these

sources of data for global and emerging markets stocks during the period 2003–2016. We also find

evidence for the use of Axioma multi-factor models for portfolio construction and risk control. We

create portfolios for January 2003–December 2016. We report four conclusions: (1) analysts’ forecast

information was rewarded by the global market between January 2003 and December 2016; (2)

analysts’ forecasts can be combined with reported fundamental data, such as earnings, book value,

cash flow and sales, and also with price momentum, in a stock selection model for identifying

mispriced securities; (3) emerging markets efficient frontiers dominate non-US and global efficient

frontiers; and (4) the portfolio returns of the multi-factor risk-controlled emerging markets portfolios

are consistent with real-time emerging markets excess returns.

1. Introduction

Emerging Markets have offered superior risk-adjusted returns relative to developed markets for the

better part of 30 years. Academicians and practitioners documented the superior returns and returns

relative to risk of emerging markets [Harvey (1995), Mobius (1996), MSCI Barra (2008)]. In fact, ten

years ago, Guerard (2007) made an IFE presentation, “Emerging Markets- How far can they go” in

which we made the case for a better risk-return tradeoff in EM stocks than in Russell 300 and MSCI

All Country World stocks for 1991-2006. One need not forecast EM markets; simply invest. A rational

investor should consider an emerging markets investment or several reasons. First, will emerging

markets continue to offer higher returns relative to risk than developed markets? Second, an investor

could prefer emerging markets investment because the markets have generated higher excess returns

than developed markets. Both cases could, and are, correct. Emerging markets, on country basis, have

produced higher Sharpe ratios than developed markets and higher portfolio excess returns have been

earned on emerging markets portfolios than developed market portfolios [McKinley Capital

Management (2007)]. Moreover, Brown (2017) reports in this issue that emerging markets produce

higher Information Ratios on Medium-Term Momentum, Growth, and Value risk factor returns than

U.S., Japan, Europe or Worldwide markets. We will show in this analysis that Active Returns

(portfolio returns less the benchmark returns) and Specific Returns (stock selection) are higher in

emerging markets stocks than in global and non-US stocks. Clearly a rational investor, based on higher

country returns, higher excess returns, and higher specific returns in emerging market stocks would not

underweight emerging market stocks in a global portfolio.

Expected returns on assets are a key input in the mean-variance portfolio selection process.

One can estimate models of expected returns by using earnings expectations data, price momentum

variables, and reported financial data. In this analysis, we construct and estimate a global stock

selection model by using these data for the period from January 2003 to December 2016. Earnings

expectations information has been being rewarded in global stocks for the past fifteen years or so, and

we expect it to continue to be the primary variable driving global stocks. Despite the recent volatility

of the momentum factor, momentum is still associated statistically with security returns, and can be

used with other factors to rank stocks for purchase. A composite model of earnings expectations

information, value, and momentum factors is estimated for global stocks to identify potentially

mispriced stocks. Analysts’ forecast and momentum variables are dominant in the regression-based

composite model of expected returns. We test both a ten-factor and two-factor model of expected

returns in emerging markets. We create portfolios for the period January 2003 – December 2016, and

simulate portfolio returns which we compare with a set of global stock benchmark returns. Our

simulated emerging markets portfolios are consistent with our real-time emerging markets portfolios.

We begin with a review of the literature on stock selection models. We use both fundamental and

statistical multi-factor risk models to create efficient portfolios. We discuss the relevance of the “alpha

alignment factor” and show its potential. We report real-world portfolio performance. Finally, we

present our summary and conclusions.

2. A literature review of expected returns modeling and stock selection models

There are many different approaches to security valuation and the creation of expected returns.

Most active quantitative managers seek to create a composite model to pick stocks that integrate value,

(using fundamental data, earnings, book value cash flow, and sales), price momentum, and analysts’

expectational data. In a recent article in the 25th anniversary issue of this journal, Guerard (2017)

discussed how Daiwa Securities (DPOS) and McKinley Capital built, tested, and measured the post-

publication performance of models, using only data available to the investor at a given point in time.

The DPOS models were highly statistically significant 25 years, post-publication. The forecasted

earnings acceleration model, CTEF, was highly statistically significant more than 20 years, post-

publication. The Guerard (2017) models passed the Markowitz and Xu (1994) Data Mining

Corrections tests in 1993, 2014, and 2017.

Graham and Dodd (1934) recommended that U.S. stocks be purchased on the basis of the (low)

price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Mobius (1996) noted the applicability of the low P/E strategy to

emerging markets. They suggested that no stock should be purchased if its price-to-earnings ratio

exceeded 1.5 times the P/E multiple of the market. Graham and Dodd established the P/E criteria, and

it was then discussed by Williams (1938), who wrote the monograph that influenced Harry

Markowitz’s thinking on portfolio construction. Basu (1977) reported evidence supporting the low P/E

model. Fama and French (1992) developed a double-sorting algorithm of portfolio construction that

supported the book-to-price (P/B) in U.S. stocks. Der Hart, Slagter, and van Dijk (2003) reported the

efficiency of the book-to-price (P/B) in emerging markets. The recent literature on financial anomalies

has been summarized in Levy (1999), Fama and French (2008), Haugen and Baker (2010), and Levy

(2012).

Bloch et al. (1993) built fundamental-based stock selection models for Japanese and United

States stocks. The investable stock universe was the first section, non-financial Tokyo Stock

Exchange common stocks from January 1975 to December 1990 in Japan, and the 1,000 largest

market-capitalized common stocks from November 1975 to December 1990 in the United States.

They found that a series of Markowitz (1952, 1959, and 1976) mean-variance efficient portfolios using

the higher EP values in Japan underperformed the universe benchmark, whereas BP, CP, and SP

(sales-to-price, or sales yield) variables outperformed the universe benchmark. For the United States,

the optimized portfolios using the BP, CP, SP, and EP variables outperformed the U.S. S&P 500,

providing support for the Graham and Dodd concept of using the relative rankings of value-focused

fundamental ratios to select stocks.1 Guerard, Xu, and Gultekin (2012) and Guerard, Rachev, and Shao

1 One finds the Price/Earnings, Price/Book and Price/Sales ratios listed among the accounting anomalies by Levy (1999, p. 434). Levy

also discusses the dividend yield as a (positive) stock anomaly. Malkiel (1996) cites evidence in support of buying low P/E, low P/B, and

high D/P (dividend yield) stocks for a good performance, provided that the low P/E stocks have modest growth prospects (pp. 204-210).

Malkiel speaks of a “double bonus”; that is, if growth occurs, earnings increase and the price-to-earnings multiple may increase, driving

the price up even further. Of course, should growth fail to occur, both earnings and the P/E multiple may fall.

In a thorough assessment of value versus growth in the United States, Lakonishok et al. (1994) examined the intersection of the Compustat and

CRSP databases for annual portfolios for NYSE and AMEX common stocks, April 1963 to April 1990. Their value measures were three current value

ratios: EP, BP and CP. Their growth measure was the five-year average annual growth of sales (GS). They performed three types of tests: a univariate ranking into annual decile portfolios for each of the four variables, bivariate rankings on CP (value) and GS (growth, glamour), and finally a multivariate

regression adaptation of the Fama and MacBeth (1973) time series pooling of cross-sectional regressions. The univariate regression coefficient for GS

was significantly negative. The EP, BP, and CP coefficients were all significantly positive. When Lakonishok et al. performed a multivariate regression using all four variables, they found significantly positive coefficients for BP and EP (but not CP), and significantly negative coefficients for GS.

Lakonishok et al. (1994) concluded that buying out-of-favor value stocks outperformed growth (glamour) stocks during the period April 1968 to April

1990, that future growth was difficult to predict from past growth alone, that the actual future growth of the glamour stocks was much lower than past growth, relative to the growth of value stocks, and that the value strategies were not significantly riskier than growth (or ‘glamour’) strategies ex post.

(2013) added the Guerard et al. (1997) composite earnings forecasting variable CTEF and the Fama

and French (1992) price momentum variables to the equation, to create a ten-factor stock selection

model for the United States stocks and global stocks, which they referred to as the USER (U.S.) and

GLER (global) expected returns models, respectively.

TRt + 1 = a0 + a1EPt + a2 BP t + a3CPt + a4SPt + a5REPt + a6RBPt + a7RCPt

+ a8RSPt + a9CTEFt + a10PMt + et , (1)

where: EP = [earnings per share]/[price per share] = earnings-price ratio;

BP = [book value per share]/[price per share] = book-price ratio;

CP = [cash flow per share]/[price per share] = cash flow-price ratio;

SP = [net sales per share]/[price per share] = sales-price ratio;

REP = [current EP ratio]/[average EP ratio over the past five years];

RBP = [current BP ratio]/[average BP ratio over the past five years];

RCP = [current CP ratio]/[average CP ratio over the past five years];

RSP = [current SP ratio]/[average SP ratio over the past five years];

CTEF = consensus earnings-per-share I/B/E/S forecast, revisions and

breadth;

PM = price momentum; and

e = randomly distributed error term.

Given concerns about both outlier distortion and multi-collinearity, Bloch et al. (1993) tested

the relative explanatory and predictive merits of alternative regression estimation procedures: OLS,

robust regression using the Beaton and Tukey (1974) bi-square criterion to mitigate the impact of

outliers, latent roots to address the issue of multicollinearity (see Gunst, Webster, & Mason, 1976), and

weighted latent roots, denoted WLRR, a combination of robust and latent roots. Bloch et al. (1993)

used the estimated regression coefficients to construct a rolling horizon return forecast. The predicted

returns and predictions of risk parameters were used as inputs for a mean-variance optimizer (see

Markowitz, 1987) to create mean-variance efficient portfolios in financial markets in both Japan and

the United States. Guerard (2016) reported the continued effectiveness of the Beaton-Tukey bi-square

and that the Tukey Optimal Influence Function, discussed in Maronna, Martin., and Yohai (2006),

produced higher specific returns (stock selection) than the bi-square criteria.

3. Efficient frontier portfolio construction

The Markowitz mean-variance (MV) portfolio construction and management can be

summarized as:

minimize 𝑤𝑇𝐶𝑤 − 𝜆𝜇𝑇𝑤, (2)

where µ is the expected return vector, C is the variance-covariance matrix, w is the portfolio weights,

and λ is the risk-return tradeoff parameter. The estimation of C is usually done by a multifactor model,

in which the individual stock return Rj of security j at time t, dropping the subscript t for time, may be

written like this:

𝑅𝑗 = ∑ 𝛽𝑗𝑘𝑓�̃�𝐾𝑘=1 + 𝑒�̃�. (3)

The nonfactor, or asset-specific, return on security j, 𝑒�̃�, is the residual risk of the security after

removing the estimated impacts of the K factors. The term fk is the rate of return on factor k. The

factor model simplifies the C as the sum of the systematic risk covariance and diagonal specific

variances,

𝐶 = 𝛽𝐶𝑓,𝑓𝛽′ + Σ. (4)

Accordingly, the portfolio risk is decomposed into the systematic risk and specific risk

𝜎𝑝2 = 𝑤′𝛽𝐶𝑓,𝑓𝛽′𝑤 + 𝑤′Σ𝑤

= 𝜎βP2 + 𝜎SP

2 . (5)

Multi-factor risk models evolved in the works of Rosenberg (1974), Ross (1976), Rosenberg and

Marathe (1979) and Ross and Roll (1980), and Dhrymes, Friend, Gultekin and Gultekin (1984). 2

If the investor is more concerned about tracking a particular benchmark, the mean-variance

optimization in Eq. (3) can be reformulated as an

minimize (𝑤 − 𝑤𝑏)𝑇𝐶(𝑤 − 𝑤𝑏) − 𝜆𝜇𝑇(𝑤 − 𝑤𝑏), (6)

where wb is the weight vector of the benchmark. One can also add equal active weighing constraints

(EAW):

|𝑤𝑗 − 𝑤(b)𝑗| ≤ 𝑥, for all 𝑗. (7)

The MV with constraints in Eq. (7) will be referred to as EAWTaR. The total tracking error can be

decomposed into the systematic tracking error and the specific tracking error:

𝜎𝑝𝑇𝐸2 = (𝑤 − 𝑤𝑏)′𝛽𝐶𝑓,𝑓𝛽′(𝑤 − 𝑤𝑏) + (𝑤 − 𝑤𝑏)′Σ(𝑤 − 𝑤𝑏)

= 𝜎βPTE2 + 𝜎SPTE

2 . (8)

2 The reader is referred to Rudd and Clasing (1982), Grinold and Kahn (1999), and Conner, Goldberg, and Korajczyk

(2010) for complete textbook treatments of multi-factor risk models.

An increase in targeted tracking error serves to produce portfolios with higher geometric means (GM),

Sharpe ratios (ShR), and information ratios (IRs). 3

4.The Data and Initial Empirical Results

The initial data used in this analysis is the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index

constituents’ data for the All Country World (GL) Index, the MSCI Non-US (XUS) Index, and the

MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index for the 2003 – 2016 time period. We test two sets of expected

returns, CTEF and GLER, for the three index constituent universes. We selected these variables

because they are the most relevant, and predictive, variables in the U.S. and global growth universes.

We create mean-variance tracking error at risk simulations with a 4 percent upper security weight

(denoted MVTaR). The simulation conditions include a 35 basis point threshold weight, 8 percent

monthly turnover, ITG transactions costs data, and an unconstrained the number of stocks, versus the

respective benchmarks universe for the January 2003 – December 2016 period. The Axioma

Worldwide statistical risk model is used. The MVTaR portfolio simulation results for CTEF and

GLER for the XUS, GL, and EM universes for targeted tracking errors of four, six, and eight percent

are reported in Table 1. In the three universes, CTEF and GLER models produce highly statistically

significant active returns, which increase as targeted tracking errors rise. In all three universes, CTEF

produces statistically significant active, specific momentum, and value returns. CTEF produces the

highest active and specific returns in the EM universe. If one seeks to maximize the geometric mean in

3 We discuss both MVTaR and EAWTaR portfolios because Guerard, Markowitz, Xu, and Chettiappan (2014) reported

highly statistically significant Active and Specific Returns with both optimization techniques. McKinley Capital

Management choses most often to implement an EAWTaR with two percent bounds, an EAW2TaR, portfolio. The MVTaR

portfolio methodology is developed in Guerard, Rachev, and Shao (2013).

portfolios, one would employ a CTEF variable in EM markets with an eight percent targeted tracking

error. In the three universes, the GLER model produces the highest active and specific returns in the

EM universe with an eight percent targeted tracking error. In global and emerging markets portfolios,

the model GLER outperforms CTEF variable. CTEF is superior for active returns and specific returns

in the non-US universe.

Table 1: Forecasted Earnings Acceleration and Stock Selection Modeling in Global, Non-US, and EM Universes

MSCI Index Constituents-only

Axioma Statistical Risk Model and Optimizer

Mean-Variance Analysis

Model: Global CTEF GLER TE

Period: 2003-01-31 to 2016-12-30 (Monthly) Benchmark: ACWG

Portfolio

Return Return T-Stat Return T-Stat Return T-Stat Return T-Stat

GLOBAL_CTEF-TE4 12.44% 3.89% 2.28 1.36% 1.28 1.18% 6.47 1.66% 4.22

GLOBAL_CTEF-TE6 15.87% 7.32% 3.32 3.89% 2.89 1.65% 7.07 1.84% 4.15

GLOBAL_CTEF-TE8 16.31% 7.77% 3.13 4.13% 2.92 1.63% 6.54 1.85% 3.93

GLOBAL_GLER-TE4 13.28% 4.73% 2.95 1.54% 1.42 0.66% 3.86 2.53% 4.49

GLOBAL_GLER-TE6 16.03% 7.49% 3.61 3.26% 2.44 0.94% 3.88 2.76% 4.62

GLOBAL_GLER-TE8 16.87% 8.32% 3.45 4.27% 2.98 0.92% 3.59 2.73% 4.68

Model: XUS CTEF GLER TE

Period: 2003-01-31 to 2016-12-30 (Monthly) Benchmark: ACWXUSG

Portfolio


XUS_CTEF_TE4 14.11% 6.17% 3.59 3.55% 3.10 1.27% 6.64 1.69% 4.35

XUS_CTEF_TE6 16.27% 8.32% 3.89 3.87% 2.85 1.61% 6.67 1.79% 4.32

XUS_CTEF_TE8 18.05% 10.10% 4.28 4.78% 3.15 1.73% 6.45 1.85% 4.37

XUS_GLER_TE4 13.78% 5.83% 3.67 1.93% 1.81 0.84% 4.22 2.37% 4.44

XUS_GLER_TE6 15.11% 7.17% 3.52 3.10% 2.27 0.84% 3.76 2.58% 4.40

XUS_GLER_TE8 16.22% 8.28% 3.82 4.36% 2.94 0.78% 3.36 2.66% 4.58

Model: EM CTEF GLER TE

Period: 2003-01-31 to 2016-12-30 (Monthly) Benchmark: EMG

Portfolio


EM_CTEF_TE4 16.15% 5.43% 3.37 4.08% 3.27 0.95% 6.17 1.43% 4.21

EM_CTEF_TE6 17.34% 6.62% 3.00 3.76% 2.27 1.31% 5.90 1.79% 4.32

EM_CTEF_TE8 19.76% 9.04% 3.67 5.17% 2.97 1.68% 5.99 2.01% 4.48

EM_GLER_TE4 17.72% 7.00% 4.90 4.69% 3.97 0.04% 0.32 1.88% 4.05

EM_GLER_TE6 19.81% 9.09% 4.59 6.21% 3.91 0.11% 0.56 2.22% 3.97

EM_GLER_TE8 20.92% 10.20% 4.43 6.55% 3.81 0.19% 0.80 2.39% 4.06

Momentum Value

Active Specific Momentum Value

Active Specific Momentum Value

Active Specific

Portfolio performance is often measured by the Sharpe Ratio, ShR, and the Information Ratio, IR,

portfolio excess returns divided by the portfolio standard deviation and tracking error, respectively.

Sharpe Ratios and Information Ratios increase, as targeted tracking errors rise. The GLER efficient

frontiers are run in the three universes.

Table 2: Axioma Statisticstical Risk Model and Optimizer

January 2003 - December 2016

STAT Risk Model

Tracking Error

Model: XUS GLER 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00

Ann. Port Return 13.18 14.13 14.47 15.22 15.80 16.05 15.95

Ann STD 20.16 20.56 20.66 20.99 21.20 21.39 21.63

Ann. Active Return 5.33 6.29 6.62 7.37 7.94 8.19 8.10

Ann. Active Risk 6.22 7.14 7.55 7.96 9.16 8.35 8.64

ShR 0.573 0.605 0.619 0.645 0.668 0.671 0.662

IR 0.856 0.880 0.876 0.925 0.975 0.981 0.937

Model: GL GLER

Ann. Port Return 12.42 14.17 14.78 15.88 16.30 16.80 17.24

Ann STD 17.82 18.92 19.60 19.98 20.12 20.54 20.64


Ann. Active Risk 6.04 7.88 8.00 8.57 8.69 9.14 9.41

ShR 0.601 0.659 0.667 0.710 0.726 0.775 0.753

IR 0.710 0.852 0.832 0.905 0.940 0.949 0.968

Model: EM GLER

Ann. Port Return 18.79 19.79 20.15 20.76 21.16 21.82 22.67

Ann STD 26.09 26.22 26.34 26.45 26.74 26.95 27.25


Ann. Active Risk 8.99 9.16 9.36 9.55 10.09 10.22 10.40

ShR 0.655 0.689 0.708 0.721 0.751 0.746 0.769

IR 0.944 1.033 1.062 1.095 1.085 1.128 1.180

The increase in Sharpe and Information Ratios rise faster in EM than GL and XUS universes,

particularly as targeted tracking errors exceed 6 percent, see Table 2 and Figures 1 and 2.

5. The alpha alignment factor

Recently, Lee and Stefek (2008) and Saxena and Stubbs (2012) discussed the deviation of ex-

post performances from ex-ante targets, and used their analysis to suggest enhancements to mean-

variance optimization inputs. Saxena and Stubbs (2012, 2015) analyzed the complex interactions

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00

Ret

urn

Realized Tracking Error

Return v.s. Realized Tracking Error

GLER XUS

GLER GL

GLER EM

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

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Ret

urn

Targeted Tracking Error

Return v.s. Targeted Tracking Error

GLER XUS

GLER GL

GLER EM

between the factors used for forecasting expected returns, risks and constraints which they denoted as a

factor alignment problem (FAP). The optimized portfolio underestimates the unknown systematic risk

of the portion of the expected returns that is not aligned with the risk model. Consequently, it

overloads the portion of the expected return that is uncorrelated with the risk factors. The empirical

results in a test-bed of real-life active portfolios based on client data show clearly that the above-

mentioned unknown systematic risk is a significant portion of the overall systematic risk, and should

be addressed accordingly. Saxena and Stubs (2012) proposed that the risk variance-covariance matrix

C be augmented with additional auxiliary factors in order to complete the risk model. The augmented

risk model has the form of

𝐶𝑛𝑒𝑤 = 𝐶 + 𝜎𝛼2𝛼 ∙ 𝛼′ + 𝜎𝛾

2𝛾 ∙ 𝛾′ , (9)

where 𝛼 is the alpha alignment factor (AAF), 𝜎𝛼 is the estimated systematic risk of 𝛼, 𝛾 is the

auxiliary factor for constrains, and 𝜎𝛾 is the estimated systematic risk of 𝛾. The alpha alignment factor

𝛼 is the unitized portion of the uncorrelated expected-return model, i.e., the orthogonal component,

with risk model factors.

Saxena and Stubbs (2012 and 2015) applied their AAF methodology to the USER model,

running a monthly backtest based on the above strategy over the time period 2001–2009 for various

tracking error values of 𝜎 chosen from {4%, 5%… 8%}. Saxena and Stubbs (2012) analyzed the time

series of misalignment coefficients of alpha, implied alpha and the optimal portfolio, and found that

almost 40−60% of the alpha is not aligned with the risk factors. The alignment characteristics of the

implied alpha are much better than those of the alpha. Among other things, this implies that the

constraints of the above strategy, especially the long-only constraints, play a proactive role in

containing the misalignment issue. In addition, not only do the orthogonal components of both the

alpha and the implied alpha have systematic risk, but the magnitude of the systematic risk is

comparable to that of the systematic risk associated with a median risk factor in US2AxiomMH.

Saxena and Stubbs (2012) showed the predicted and realized active risks for various risk target

levels, and noted the significant downward bias in risk prediction when the AAF methodology is not

employed.4 The realized risk-return frontier demonstrates that not only does using the AAF

methodology improve the accuracy of risk prediction, it also moves the ex-post frontier upwards,

thereby giving ex-post performance improvements. In other words, the AAF approach recognizes the

possibility of missing systematic risk factors and makes amends to the greatest extent that is possible

without a complete recalibration of the risk model that accounts for the latent systematic risk in alpha

factors explicitly. In the process of doing so, AAF approach not only improves the accuracy of risk

prediction, but also makes up for the lack of efficiency in the optimal portfolios.

Let us introduce a two-factor model for stock selection that equally-weights CTEF and PM.

These factors are used in the proprietary McKinley Capital Management stock selection model. We

reported results for a similar equally-weighted two-factor model in Guerard, Chettiappan, and Xu

(2010) for only the non-US stock universe. In the EM universe, the Axioma fundamental risk

model produces higher Sharpe Ratios and Information Ratios, than the Axioma statistical risk

model, although both risk models create portfolios with very high Sharpe and Information Ratios.

The application of AAF (20% and 40%) pushes out the efficient frontiers in emerging markets, see

Table 3. Active returns, Sharpe Ratios, and Information Ratios rise with targeted tracking errors.

4 Saxena and Stubbs (2012 and 2015) reported bias statistics, a statistical metric that is used to measure the accuracy of risk prediction;

if the ex-ante risk prediction is unbiased, then the bias statistic should be close to 1.0 . Saxena and Stubbs reported bias statistics

obtained without the aid of the AAF methodology are significantly above the 95% confidence interval, which shows that the downward

bias in the risk prediction of optimized portfolios is statistically significant. The AAF methodology recognizes the possibility of

inadequate systematic risk estimation, and guides the optimizer to avoid taking excessive unintended bets.

Where DNC=Did Not Converge

The application of the AAF, chosen to be 20% and 40%, is shown in Table 3 We find AAF produces

higher Sharpe ratios and information ratios in both fundamental and statistical risk model tests,

particularly in the 7–10% targeted tracking error range.5

5 Beheshti (2014) estimated alpha alignment factor models for 20% for CTEF, and found that AAF portfolios dominated

non-AAF portfolios over 85% of the portfolio permutations. Moreover, in an examination of global portfolios using WRDS

data, referred to by Xia, Min, and Deng (2014), Markowitz suggested graphing the Sharpe ratios and information ratios in

order to identify possible “optimal” AAF levels. The resulting graph suggested that AAF levels of 20% and 40% were

virtually identical in predictive power; all AAF levels (10, 20, 30,…,90) produced better results than on-AAF portfolios.

The AAF level of 50% reported for these data produces information ratios that are virtually identical to those from the AAF

level of 20% reported in a follow-up study using ITG cost curves for portfolio construction over the period 2001–2011.

5. Real-World Investment Performance

The Journal of Investing, since its first year of publication, has stressed real-time portfolio

performance to show effective implementation. The EM portfolio, run real-time since March 31, 2011,

has produced 446 basis points, as of September 29, 2017, since-inception, annualized Active Returns,

putting the portfolio in the top 5 percent of its peers in Geometric Means, Information Ratios, and

Sharpe Ratios. The portfolio benchmark is the MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index. The MCM EM

portfolio produces 446 basis points is highly statistically significant, having a t-statistic of 2.69. The

Active Returns is composed of 261 basis points (t-statistic = 1.98, highly statistically significant) of

Factor Contribution, 333 basis points (t-statistic = 4.84) of which is Medium-Term Momentum

(Axioma Momentum exposure averages 0.60) and 185 basis points (t-statistic =1.49, not statistically

significant) of Specific Returns (stock selection). Many EM investors use the MSCI Emerging Index.

The MCM EM portfolio produces 624 basis points is highly statistically significant, having a t-statistic

of 2.97. The Active Returns is composed of 347 basis points (t-statistic = 2.03, highly statistically

significant) of Factor Contribution, 403 basis points (t-statistic = 4.60) of which is Medium-Term

Momentum (Axioma Momentum exposure averages 0.74) and 277 basis points (t-statistic =2.10,

statistically significant) of Specific Returns (stock selection).

The MCM EM portfolio has delivered statistically significant Active Returns against MSCI EM

benchmarks and statistically significant Specific Returns against the MSCI EM benchmark.

What is the future of EM portfolio construction? MCM research suggests that the Domowitz (2018)

Donuts analysis is extremely relevant and appropriate, particularly in universes where the benchmark

Source of Return Avg Exposure Risk IR T-Stat

Portfolio 16.11%

Benchmark 17.26%

Active 0.00% 5.35% 1.17 2.97

Specific Return 0.00% 3.36% 0.82 2.10

Factor Contribution 0.00% 4.35% 0.80 2.03

Style 0.9584 2.76% 0.45 1.14

Exchange Rate Sensitivity 0.0278 0.07% -1.05 -2.68

Growth 0.3058 0.33% 0.96 2.45

Leverage -0.0788 0.12% 0.44 1.13

Liquidity 0.1390 0.22% -0.71 -1.82

Medium-Term Momentum 0.7433 2.23% 1.80 4.60

Short-Term Momentum 0.1210 0.41% -1.91 -4.86

Size -0.1451 0.50% 0.09 0.24

Value -0.2992 0.56% -1.27 -3.23

Volatility 0.1447 0.76% -1.94 -4.96

Country -4.21% 1.04% 0.57 1.45

Industry -4.21% 1.17% 1.50 3.82

Currency -1.25% 0.81% 0.12 0.31

Local 0.36% 0.14% 0.31 0.78

Market -4.21% 0.66% -0.39 -0.99

Sectors -4.21% 1.17% 1.50 3.82

Table 4: EM Real-Time Attribtion Analysis

Portfolio: McKinley Capital Emerging Markets Growth Base Currency: USD

Benchmark: MSCI EM (EMERGING MARKETS) Return Scaling: Annualized (Geometric)

Period: 2011-03-31 to 2017-09-29 (Monthly) Risk Type: Realized Risk

Risk Model: WW21AxiomaMH Long/Short: Long Only

Contribution Hit Rate

8.18%

1.94%

6.24%

2.77%

3.47%

1.24%

-0.07% 38.46%

0.32% 67.95%

0.05% 55.13%

-0.16% 50.00%

4.03% 74.36%

-0.78% 21.79%

0.05% 52.56%

-0.71% 42.31%

-1.49% 34.62%

0.59%

1.76%

0.10%

0.04%

-0.25%

1.76%

Report Generated Using 2015.1.4 On: 2017-10-07 13:08:39

is dominated by 4-6 very large stocks. In Donuts, portfolio construction is composed of two steps; (1)

creating an equally active weighted (plus or minus two percent) subset of the sum of top five stocks;

and (2) an equally active weighted subset of the remaining stocks in the portfolio. What is the cost of

such a portfolio? Very little. The Portfolio Manager does not worry about very large stocks that may

often do meet the portfolio criteria, both good forecasted earnings acceleration and good price

momentum. The U.S. reader immediately recognizes the FANG applications to domestic portfolios.

6. Conclusions

Investing based on analysts’ expectations, fundamental data, and momentum variables is a

good investment strategy in the long-run. We create portfolios for January 2003–December 2016. We

report four conclusions: (1) analysts’ forecast information was rewarded by the global market between

January 2003 and December 2016; (2) analysts’ forecasts can be combined with reported fundamental

data, such as earnings, book value, cash flow and sales, and also with price momentum, in a stock

selection model for identifying mispriced securities; (3) emerging markets efficient frontiers dominate

non-US and global efficient frontiers; and (4) the portfolio returns of the multi-factor risk-controlled

emerging markets portfolios are consistent with real-time emerging markets excess returns. The

anomalies literature can be applied in real-world global portfolio construction.

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DISCLOSURE

The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and may not represent or reflect those of

McKinley Capital Management, LLC. All information contained herein is believed to be acquired from reliable

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John B. Guerard, Jr., Ph.D., McKinley Capital Management, LLC, 3301 C Street, Suite 500, Anchorage,

AK 99503. [email protected].

Mr. Guerard is Director of Quantitative Research at McKinley Capital Management, in Anchorage,

Alaska. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University, his MA in Economics from the

University of Virginia, MSIM from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Ph.D. in Finance from the

University of Texas, Austin. Mr. Guerard has published several monographs, including Quantitative

Corporate Finance (Springer, 2007, with Eli Schwartz) and Introduction to Financial Forecasting in

Investment Analysis (Springer, 2013), and edited The Handbook of Portfolio Construction:

Contemporary Applications of Markowitz Techniques (Springer, 2010) and Portfolio Construction,

Measurement, and Efficiency (Springer, 2017). John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of

Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting. Mr. Guerard has published research in The

International Journal of Forecasting, Management Science, the Journal of Forecasting, Journal of

Investing, Research in Finance, the IBM Journal of Research and Development, Research Policy, and

the Journal of the Operational Research Society.

mailto:[email protected]

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