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ACTIVITY COMPLETION REPORT
Assistance to Moldelectrica in defining and developing its TSO planning function
(CWP.02.MD)
INOGATE Technical Secretariat and Integrated Programme in support of the Baku Initiative and the Eastern Partnership energy objectives
Contract No 2011/278827
A project within the INOGATE Programme
Implemented by: Ramboll Denmark A/S (lead partner)
EIR Global sprl. The British Standards Institution
LDK Consultants S.A. MVV decon GmbH ICF International
Statistics Denmark Energy Institute Hrvoje Po?ar
Document title Assistance to Moldelectrica in defining and developing its TSO planning
function (CWP.02.MD)
Document status Final Name Date
Prepared by Nick Tourlis Konstantions Perrakis Veronica Muruziuc Victor Gropa
12/03/2016, 13/04/2016
Checked by
Nikos Tsakalidis
Adrian Twomey
14/04/2016, 15/04/2016
Approved by
Peter Larsen 27/05/2016
This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.
Table of Contents 1. PART 1 – EUROPEAN COMMISSION ................................................................................................ 5
1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................. 5
1.2 Essence of the Activity ............................................................................................................ 5
1.3 Key Findings ............................................................................................................................ 6
1.4 Ownership and Benefits of the Activity .................................................................................. 7
1.5 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 8
1.6 Challenges Faced ..................................................................................................................... 9
1.7 Impact Matrix .......................................................................................................................... 9
2. PART 2 - BENEFICIARIES ................................................................................................................. 10
2.1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 10
2.2 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 13
2.2.1 Foreword ....................................................................................................................... 13
2.2.2 Scope ............................................................................................................................. 13
2.2.3 Objectives ...................................................................................................................... 13
2.3 Transmission planning: overview of the overall process and the challenges ....................... 14
2.3.1 The traditional challenges ............................................................................................. 15
2.3.2 The ‘coordination’ problem in the liberalized environment ......................................... 16
2.3.3 Increase of uncertainty due to renewables .................................................................. 16
2.3.4 Objectives and criteria .................................................................................................. 16
2.3.5 Transmission planning methods ................................................................................... 17
2.4 Review of EU practices for electricity transmission planning ............................................... 21
2.4.1 EU Legal and regulatory context ................................................................................... 21
2.4.2 The ENTSO-E Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) ....................................... 23
2.5 Background National TYNDP (KO, RO, UA, GE, GR, IR) .......................................................... 31
2.5.1 The Romanian TYNDP ................................................................................................... 31
2.5.2 The Ukrainian TYNDP .................................................................................................... 34
2.5.3 The Greek TYNDP .......................................................................................................... 37
2.5.4 The Georgian TYNDP ..................................................................................................... 38
2.5.5 The Irish TYNDP ............................................................................................................. 39
2.5.6 The importance of the Romanian and Ukraine TYNDPs to Moldova power system ..... 41
2.6 Legal and Regulatory Framework on Transmission Planning in Moldova ............................. 41
2.6.1 Primary legislation ............................................................................................................ 41
2.6.2 Secondary legislation ........................................................................................................ 43
2.7 The requirements of the draft Electricity Law of Moldova with respect to the TYNDP ....... 44
2.8 Proposed contents of the future Moldovan TYNDP .............................................................. 45
2.8.1 Legal basis ......................................................................................................................... 47
2.8.2 Scope & Objectives ........................................................................................................... 48
2.8.3 Existing situation ............................................................................................................... 48
2.8.3.1 General information (geography, demographics and economy) ...................................... 48
2.8.3.2 Energy sector overview ..................................................................................................... 51
2.8.3.3 Electricity demand (consumption & peak – historical data) ............................................. 57
2.8.3.4 Generation ........................................................................................................................ 58
2.8.3.5 Interconnections and their use ......................................................................................... 60
2.8.3.6 Issues and Prospects ......................................................................................................... 63
2.8.4 Analysis of demand ........................................................................................................... 67
2.8.5 Drivers ............................................................................................................................... 70
2.8.6 Scenarios ........................................................................................................................... 71
2.8.6.1 The ‘base’ approach .......................................................................................................... 71
2.8.6.2 The ‘comprehensive’ approach ......................................................................................... 73
2.8.7 Analysis of the adequacy of electricity supply .................................................................. 75
2.8.8 Dispatch simulation ........................................................................................................... 76
2.8.9 Development of network models ..................................................................................... 77
2.8.10 Network analysis ............................................................................................................... 77
2.8.11 CBA for transmission projects ........................................................................................... 80
2.8.12 Available capacity for non-dispatchable RES plants .......................................................... 82
2.8.13 Summary of necessary projects ........................................................................................ 82
2.8.14 Additional projects ............................................................................................................ 82
2.8.15 Summary results ............................................................................................................... 82
2.8.16 Tools used by ENTSO-E TSOs for market and network studies ......................................... 83
2.9 Key Findings .......................................................................................................................... 87
2.10 Ownership and Benefits of the Activity ................................................................................ 87
2.11 Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 88
2.12 Challenges Faced ................................................................................................................... 89
2.13 Impact ................................................................................................................................... 90
2.14 Annex 1 – important notes from the neighbouring TSOs TYNDPs ........................................ 91
2.15 Annex 2- Energy Balance (2014) ........................................................................................... 93
2.16 Annex 3 - Electricity scenarios from the Energy Strategy 2020 ............................................ 95
2.17 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND REFERENCES ......................................................................................... 96
1
List of Figures Figure 1: Main steps of the transmission planning process .................................................................. 15
Figure 2: Transmission planning: expert judgement supported by modeling ...................................... 19
Figure 3: Transmission planning: the optimization process .................................................................. 20
Figure 4: Overview of the TYNDP 2014 process .................................................................................... 24
Figure 5: Scope of the ENTSO-E cost benefit analysis ........................................................................... 25
Figure 6: Indicators used in the ENTSO-E CBA methodology ................................................................ 25
Figure 7: The interaction between market and network studies used for project assessment in the ENTSO-E CBA methodology. .................................................................................................................. 26
Figure 8: ENTSO-E regions ..................................................................................................................... 28
Figure 9: Overview of the process and link between Market Studies and Network Studies in the ENTSO-E CSE Regional Investment Plan 2014. ...................................................................................... 29
Figure 10: Map of Moldova ................................................................................................................... 49
Figure 11: Annual GDP growth of Moldova (2006-2015) ...................................................................... 51
Figure 12: Structure of fuel and energy imports of Moldova (2003-2010) .......................................... 52
Figure 13: Electricity consumption per main activities of the Moldovan economy (2003, 2010) ........ 52
Figure 14: Structure of final energy use in Moldova during 2014 ........................................................ 53
Figure 15: Map of the Moldovan power system ................................................................................... 56
Figure 16: electricity demand, 2001-2015 (in TWh) ............................................................................. 57
Figure 17: daily load profile – winter peak 2015 (in MW) .................................................................... 57
Figure 18: daily load profile – summer peak 2015 (in MW) ................................................................. 58
Figure 18: Electricity generation in Moldova, 2001-2015 (TWh) .......................................................... 59
Figure 20: Limits on Imports from Ukraine ........................................................................................... 61
Figure 21: Imports from Ukraine (2001-2015) ...................................................................................... 62
Figure 22: Electricity Import/Export activity with Romania (2001-2015) ............................................. 62
Figure 23: Planned interconnections according to the Moldovan Energy Strategy 2020 ..................... 64
Figure 24 : Areas of interest for the connection of renewable sources of energy................................ 65
Figure 25: Forecast of electricity demand in Moldova by basic sectors until 2030 (GWh) .................. 67
Figure 25: Forecast of electricity demand in Moldova by basic sectors until 2030 without industrial sector (GWh) ......................................................................................................................................... 68
Figure 27: Demand forecast & stress days in the Moldovan power system ........................................ 68
Figure 28: scenarios and planning cases for the purposes of network analysis ................................... 78
Figure 29: planning cases and technical analysis performed within the Georgian TYNDP ................... 79
2
List of Tables Table 1: Calculation of CBA indicators through market and network studies ....................................... 30
Table 2: Requirements of the draft Electricity Law of Moldova with respect to the TYNDP content ... 44
Table 3: GDP of the Republic of Moldova during 1990-1999 ................................................................ 50
Table 4: Typical Winter Day Peak load demand and generation, 2008 – 2013 (MW) ........................... 60
Table 5: electricity demand forecast – projections by the World Bank (2013-2033) ............................ 68
Table 6: peak load forecasts according to the Moldovan Energy Strategy 2020 (in MW) .................... 70
Table 7: Example scenarios for the purposes of power system planning ............................................. 72
Table 8: Example scenarios of load demand for the purposes of power system planning ................... 72
Table 9: Outline of high-level scenarios (example) ............................................................................... 74
Table 10: “Stress” days for the Moldovan Power System ..................................................................... 76
Table 11: Software tools used by TSOs in the ENTSO-E CSE region for network studies within the Regional TYNDP process ....................................................................................................................... 84
Table 12: Tools used for network studies in the CCE region ................................................................. 86
3
Abbreviations and acronyms AA Association Agreement
AC Alternative Current
ANRE The energy regulatory authority of the Republic of Moldova
B2B Back to Back
CBA Cost Benefit Analysis
CHP Combined Head and Power
CWP Country Work Plan
DC Direct Current
ECS Energy Community Secretariat
ECT Energy Community Treaty
ENS Energy Not Served (Supplied)
EU European Union
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GE Georgia
GR Greece
GSE Georgian State Electrosystem
HPP Hydro Power Plant
IFI International Financing Institution
IPS/UPS Integrated Power System/Unified Power System
IR Ireland
ITS INOGATE Technical Secretariat
KO Kososvo
LOLE Loss of Load Expectation
LOLP Loss of Load Probability
MD Moldova
MGRES Moldavscaia thermal power plant 2520 MW
NRA National Regulatory Authority
OHL Over Head Line
PCs INOGATE Partner Countries
PECI Project of Energy Community Interest
PP Power Plant
RES Renewable Energy Sources
4
RO Romania
RTE The TSO of France
SEW Socio Economic Welfare
TSO Transmission System Operator
TYNDP Ten Year Network Development Plan
UA Ukraine
VAR Volt Amperes Reactive
VOLL Value of Lost Load
5
1. PART 1 – EUROPEAN COMMISSION
1.1 Background
Assignment Title: Assistance to Moldelectrica in defining and developing its TSO planning function (CWP.02.MD)
Country and Dates: Moldova, Jan 2016 – March 2016
Beneficiary Organisation(s): Moldelectrica
Beneficiary Organisation’s key contact persons – name and e-mail address
Mr. Iurie Cazacu, Head of Department of Electric Regimes
Email: [email protected]
Deliverables Produced
1. A report summarising the work performed and the key milestones of the process. It will include the discussion paper on planning process agreed with ANRE.
2. The draft Code of Practice on transmission planning in English and Romanian.
Expert Team Members 1. Electricity Markets Expert, Task Coordinator (Nick Tourlis)
2.Senior EU Regulatory Expert (Konstantinos Perrakis)
3.Local Legal Expert (Veronica Muruziuc)
4. Local Engineering Expert (Victor Gropa)
1.2 Essence of the Activity
Moldelectrica is the Transmission System Operator in the Republic of Moldova. Pursuant to the provisions the new draft Electricity Law of the Republic of Moldova transposing the Directive 2009/72/EC to the national legislation and by virtue of Article 30 is being entrusted the planning function in relation to the transmission network. In addition Article 34 of the new draft Electricity Law explicitly refers to the obligations placed on the Transmission System Operator as well as the regulatory and approval and monitoring functions of the National Regulatory authority and the obligations placed on other market actors in relation to the transmission network development plan. Based on the aforementioned the specific objectives of the assignment include:
• to assist Moldelectrica in the process of the implementation the planning obligations assign to it by the Law;
• to develop the necessary piece of secondary legislation in cooperation with ANRE (the Na-tional Regulatory Authority of the Republic of Moldova) in which details on the provisions of the development of the transmission network development plan and the obligations and re-sponsibilities of several parties will be specified.
6
• to enable an intra-INOGATE peer review and exchange of experiences by engaging the Geor-gia State Electrosystem in the process
The activity took place between January 2016 and March 2016 and involved two expert missions as well as a twinning workshop in Tbilisi between the Moldovan and Georgian TSOs (February 2016)
1.3 Key Findings
So far the transmission planning functions of Moldelectrica have been limited to immediate and case-by-case calculations for the connection for new users and rehabilitation of the network. The strategic long term transmission planning has been part of the national energy strategy prepared by the Ministry of Economy. While the strategic directions for the whole energy system development in the country should remain with the Ministry of Economy, the new draft electricity law transposing the 3rd Energy Package to the Moldovan legislation provides for specific transmission planning functions of the TSO and also for the development of a Ten Year Network Development Plan and a three-year investment plan.
Moldoelectrica is ready to respond to these responsibilities but as it appears from the results of this analysis there it is a need of methodological support, modelling capabilities and human resources that would undertake this recurring task. The present assignment as acted on the former with due regard to bring some extra information on the requirements and directions that Moldelectrica need to consider while taking the next steps towards the development of the TYNDP. In this context the INOGATE team has developed a draft Code of Practice for Transmission Planning accompanied by Transmission Planning Standards. This report, envisages playing the role of a “how-to” manual which should guide Moldelectrica in taking the appropriate sequence of steps for the development of their first TYNDP. For this purpose the content of this report was based on extensive exchanges between the INOGATE experts’ team and Moldelectrica team as well as representatives of ANRE, the EU Delegation to the Republic of Moldova and the local representatives of the World Bank and EBRD. Furthermore, based on the findings during the discussions in both missions of the INOGATE team to the country it was decided that this report would discuss both the EU and regional situation and should also take into account the national specificities of the Moldovan power system. Last but not least, an intra-INOGATE TSO twinning effort has been encompassed in this particular activity. The Georgian TSO having just recently completed their TYNDP hosted the Moldelectrica team in a one-day workshop in Tbilisi.
7
1.4 Ownership and Benefits of the Activity
The main benefits of the activity for the Beneficiary may be accounted to include: 1. A tailor-made guidance for the development of the first Moldovan TYNDP including a review
of the features of the ENTSO-E, neighbouring, European and the Georgian TYNDP as well as the main steps along the process and some proposals on the modelling requirements;
2. A worked-out Code of Practice for Transmission Planning discussed to a large extent with ANRE and accompanied with a set of Transmission Planning Criteria allowing for a gradual fulfilment of the N-1 criterion.
3. The opportunity to discuss at a peer-level with a TSO in the region, which has just recently completed the same exercise and more or less faces similar challenges in regards of planning a transmission network comprising similar characteristics and size.
The Beneficiary took ownership in the following way: 1. Created and kept consistently throughout the project activities a task force comprising
Moldelectrica experts 2. Hosted the two project missions and engaged in discussions with the INOGATE team of ex-
perts and the representatives of ANRE. 3. Provided meaningful comments and insights for the development of the Code of Practice for
Transmission planning and the Transmission Planning Standards, while the Moldelectrica Team was committed to verify certain technical data (i.e. information to be provided by the Transmission Network Users) against the requirements of the existing Technical Norms
4. Participated to the TSO exchange of practices workshop in Tbilisi and committed to continue further the collaboration between the Georgian and Moldovan TSOs.
8
1.5 Recommendations
Following the completion of this assignment Moldelectrica should establish a plan of actions of the elaboration of the first Moldovan TYDNP. In carrying out its role as a prudent and efficient TSO, Moldelectrica should plan the transmission network on the basis of good engineering practice and considering the integrity and reliability of the power system in Moldova regardless of assets ownership and or other considerations.
As a first step Moldelectrica should take the necessary actions so that the Code of Practice for Transmission Planning as well as the Transmission Planning Standards is published on Moldelectrica’s website. At a later stage the Code of Practice for Transmission Planning as well as the Transmission Planning Standards should become integral part of the future Grid Code. In addition as the Moldovan power system changes shape by the gradual implementation of the projects defined in the TYNDP the Transmission Planning Standards should become an integral part of the Planning Code (i.e. the chapter of the Grid Code discussing Transmission Planning as it would have emerge based on the current draft Code of Practice for Transmission Planning)
It is understood that the TYNDP is an evolving process during which each version of the TYNDP becomes a bit improved. It is imperative for the TSO to commence promptly the activity based on the resources available in order to start this continuous improvement process. Agreeing on the demand forecasting methodology and assumptions comprises a characteristic step in the development of the TYNDP.
On a provisional basis and subject to Moldelectrica’s own internal procedures we have developed a timeline for the development of the first Moldovan TYNDP. It takes into account the expected new ENTSO-E TYNDP and Romanian TYNDP 2016- 2025 as well as the approved Ukrainian TYNDP 2016-2025. It also coordinated the two-stage review of the TYNDP by ANRE and allows for coordination on the submission and approval of the Annual Investment Plan so that the progress of network investments is reflected in the latter.
2016 2017Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Draft UATYNDP
(2016-2025)
Approved UATYNDP
(2016-2025
Expected RO
TYNDP (2016- 2025)
Expected
ENTSO-ETYNDP
(2016-2025)
Report on
execution ofAnnual
InvestmentPlan
Draft MD
TYNDP
(2017-2026)
ANRE
Comments on
draft TYNDP
Final (&
publication)
TYNDP forapproval
Submission
of Annual
InvestmentPlan
Approval ofAnnual
InvestmentPlan (A)
Approval ofAnnual
InvestmentPlan (B)
9
1.6 Challenges Faced
No particular challenges can be reported. The work developed according to the provisions of the ToR and the cooperation with Moldelectrica and the rest of the stakeholders was efficient and productive.
The only challenge that pertains is that the electricity draft law was not yet approved by the parliament during the time of development of this work and this report. Though no surprises are expected with respect of provisions of the new law on electricity describing the planning function of the TSO, if the law was enacted it would have enable ANRE to consider adopting the Code of Practice for Transmission Planning and Transmission Planning Standards as Regulation using their predefined procedures. Perhaps this temporary difficulty gives a better momentum for the adoption of an integrated Grid Code (encompassing then the outcomes of this project) after the new electricity law is in place.
1.7 Impact Matrix
Moldova has shown true commitment and motivation in transposing the 3rd Energy Package and in fact this momentum was kept during the course of development of this assignment with the approval of the Law transposing the RES Directive. The draft regulatory texts as well as the guidance comprising this report can serve as a part of the implementation of the sustainable and resilient energy system of Moldova as it is aspired by the local law-makers.
Impact Area Developments 2012 (%) 2015 / Apr 2016 (%)
Policy Overall this activity contributes to the objectives of the Moldovan long term energy strategy in particular regards to ensuring security of supply and compliance with the Energy Community Treaty requirements
-
Regulation A tailor-made guidance on the practical aspects of the development of the first Moldovan TYNDP
Technical Norms of Moldelectrica
Draft Code of Practice on transmission planning & Transmission Planning standards
Other
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2. PART 2 - BENEFICIARIES 2.1 Executive Summary
Primary purpose of Transmission Planning is to determine, transmission and substation additions, at the lowest possible cost, which render the transmission network to be able to supply the loads within given reliability criteria and facilitate the operation of the wholesale electricity market.
Major issues and factors to be considered in a transmission planning study include:
• planning period
• load forecast and transmission usage projection
• generation resources (location, type, etc.)
• different alternatives available to cove a specific need
• new and emerging technologies
• discrete transmission capacities (e.g. in case of new line)
• reliability and cost considerations
• economic and financial constraints
• economies of scale
• uncertainties and risks
There are a number of European Union (EU) documents which have an impact on Transmission Development in the EU:
• Regulation (EC) No 714/2009
• Directive 2009/72/EC
• Directive 2009/28/EC
• Directive 2012/27/EC
The sections in these documents which have an impact on the transmission planning in the EU are discussed below.
EU Member States have different time-horizons for transmission planning, and the whole process is based on Directive 72/2009 and Regulation 714/2009:
a) At national level, according to Directive 72/2009, TSOs have to develop and comply with a ten-year network development plan (TYNDP) monitored by the national regulatory authority (NRA). The TYNDP is approved by the competent Ministry or the NRA. The NRA has to con-sult all actual or potential system users on the TYNDP.
b) At Regional level, according to Regulation 714/2009 EU Transmission system operators have to establish regional cooperation within the ENTSO for Electricity and, among others, publish
11
a (non-binding) regional investment plan every two years, and may take investment deci-sions based on that regional investment plan.
c) At EU level, according to Regulation 714/2009 the ENTSO for Electricity (ENTSO-E) should draw up, publish and regularly update a (non-binding ) Community-wide ten-year network development plan (Community-wide network development plan). Viable electricity trans-mission networks and necessary regional interconnections, relevant from a commercial or security of supply point of view, should be included in that network development plan.
On a thematic area basis, the following are noted:
a) Market Integration
European regulations and directives (Regulation (EC) No 714/2009 and Directive 2009/72/EC) high-light –among others- the need for the creation of interconnection capacities to achieve the objective of a well-functioning efficient and open internal market.
b) Renewable Energy
Directive 28 of 2009 deals with the promotion of the use of renewable sources; Paragraph 2 of Arti-cle 16 requires Member States to ensure that transmission system operators guarantee the transmis-sion of electricity from, and provide priority access to, renewable energy sources. Paragraph 2 also requires Member States to ensure that transmission system operators provide priority dispatch to renewable energy sources in so far as the secure operation of the national electricity system permits.
c) Energy Efficiency
Directive 27 of 2012 deals with the promotion of energy efficiency. Paragraph 5 of Article 15 requires Member States to ensure that transmission system operators guarantee the transmission of electrici-ty from, and provide priority access to, high-efficiency cogeneration. Paragraph 5 also requires Mem-ber States to ensure that transmission system operators provide priority dispatch to high-efficiency cogeneration in so far as the secure operation of the national electricity system permits.
In terms of national implementation, the EU Directive no 72/2009 defines specific requirements regarding the transmission network development process, including the tasks and duties of TSOs and NRAs, as well as the consultation procedure to be followed when drafting the TYNDP.
The new draft law on electricity states in art. 34 that the TSO must ensure development of the electric transmission network and shall draft a development plan of the electric transmission networks for ten years while taking into consideration the energy strategy approved by the Government, the forecasted and the actual supply and demand of electricity. Moreover, detailed requirements are provided in the same article regarding the development of the TYNDP, the general content/structure of a TYNDP, the consultation procedure to be followed by the TSO and by the Regulator, as well as regarding the approval and implementation of the TYNDP.
With a view to ensure compliance to the new electricity law but also taking into account the EU experience and practices of TSOs in developing their transmission planning documents the following have been developed:
12
• A tailor-made guidance for the development of the first Moldovan TYNDP including, a review of the features of the ENTSO-E, neighbouring, European and the Georgian TYNDP as well as the main steps along the process and some proposals on the modelling requirements;
• A worked-out Code of Practice for Transmission Planning discussed to a large extent with ANRE and accompanied with a set of Transmission Planning Criteria allowing for a gradual fulfilment of the N-1 criterion.
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2.2 Introduction
2.2.1 Foreword INOGATE committed in the Country Work Plan to implement an activity that would assist Moldelectrica in enhancing its role as the Moldovan TSO. Following the completion of INOGATEs assistance for the transposition of the 3rd Energy Package and in cooperation with the Ministry of Economy this follow-on activity was prepared with a view to enhance the electricity transmission planning functions in Moldova. The assignment overall aimed to contribute to the effort of the Moldelectrica to consolidate the functions of a prudent Transmission System Operator and in particular the transmission planning function as it is in the detail provided for in the new draft Electricity Law of the Republic of Moldova.
2.2.2 Scope The results of this activity envisaged to encompass both immediate and strategic outcomes which could be summaries as the follows:
In the short term:
a. A practical guidance and initiation of the process for developing a transmission network de-velopment plan in Moldova taking into consideration the EU principles but adapting to the local situation including any limitations of a technical and/or financial nature
b. The preparation and submission to ANRE for approval a draft Regulation resembling the con-tents of the Planning Code section of an integrated Grid Code.
In the medium to long term:
• Investments in the electricity sector will increase due to investors becoming more assured that the electricity sector has a predictable, non-discriminatory and transparent set of rules in place that will allow greater opportunity for growing market shares, and ultimately, profit-ability.
• An opportunity for informal cooperation of TSOs in the intra-INOGATE area. In this particular case Moldelectrica and GSE do not share borders in order to be able to translate this cooper-ation in to physical cross border flows but they both clearly demonstrate an interest and tendency towards adopting business practices similar to those exercised by EU TSOs.
• An increased awareness and understanding by key decision makers in Moldova on the legis-lative amendments required to be effected in the view of an improved electricity market functioning including in particular an increased cooperation with neighbouring electricity markets.
2.2.3 Objectives Moldelectrica is the Transmission System Operator in the Republic of Moldova. Pursuant to the provisions the new draft Electricity Law of the Republic of Moldova transposing the Directive 2009/72/EC to the national legislation and by virtue of Article 30 is being entrusted the planning
14
function in relation to the transmission network. In addition Article 34 new draft Electricity Law explicitly refers to the obligations placed on the Transmission System Operator as well as the regulatory and approval and monitoring functions of the National Regulatory authority and the obligations places on other market actors in relation to the transmission network development plan. Based on the aforementioned the specific objectives of the assignment included:
• to assist Moldelectrica in the process of the implementation the planning obligations assign to it by the Law
• to develop the necessary piece of secondary legislation in cooperation with ANRE (the Na-tional Regulatory Authority of the Republic of Moldova) in which details on the provisions of the development of the transmission network development plan and the obligations and re-sponsibilities of several parties will be specified.
• to enable an intra-INOGATE peer review and exchange of experiences by engaging the Geor-gia State Electrosystem in the process
The activity took place between January 2016 and March 2016 and involved two expert missions as well as a twinning workshop in Tbilisi between the Moldovan and Georgian TSOs (February 2016).
2.3 Transmission planning: overview of the overall process and the challenges
Primary purpose of Transmission Planning is to determine, transmission and substation additions, at the lowest possible cost, which render the transmission network to be able to supply the loads within given reliability criteria and facilitate the operation of the wholesale electricity market.
Major issues and factors to be considered in a transmission planning study include:
• planning period
• load forecast and transmission usage projection
• generation resources (location, type, etc.)
• different alternatives available to cove a specific need
• new and emerging technologies
• discrete transmission capacities (e.g. in case of new line)
• reliability and cost considerations
• economic and financial constraints
• economies of scale
• uncertainties and risks
In the following picture, the essential steps in the transmission planning process are shown1. The
1 Source: ABB, Transmission Planning, 2003
15
whole process is discussed further in the sections which follow.
Figure 1: Main steps of the transmission planning process
2.3.1 The traditional challenges From an economic point of view, the problem of transmission expansion is difficult because of a series of reasons2. Electricity networks (and lines) are still not much controllable, and power flows do not follow the designated ‘contract path’. Rather, power flows across every parallel path between sources and sinks. Even with a controllable line as part of a larger system, the impact of the controllable line cannot be fully separated from the pattern of use of the rest of the system. In addition, the services provided by the transmission system further complicate any attempt to fairly allocate costs. For instance, reactive power availability can have a significant impact on the transmission capacity to move real power between many locations. This means that investments such as for capacitor additions to provide reactive support can increase the capacity of the transmission system without constructing new lines on which the power would flow. Furthermore, it is a commonplace that there can be significant economies of scale in transmission expansion. Hence, the efficient level of investment might come in lumps, thus causing a ‘marginal’ approach much more difficult to apply. Finally, the uncertainties involved, given the long life-time of transmission assets complicate even more the task of planning for an ‘optimal’ transmission network.
2 See W.Hogan, “Market-Based Transmission Investments and Competitive Electricity Markets”, 1999
16
2.3.2 The ‘coordination’ problem in the liberalized environment In the liberalized market environment, in which more than one players (decision makers) are active, there arises a coordination issue between transmission (area in which the monopoly of the TSO pre-vails) and generation investments (area mostly left to private investor decisions), which poses an additional, significant challenge. At the theoretical level, there are just two broad approaches to coordination of generation and transmission investment, which have been referred to as the "pro-active" approach and the "reactive" approach3.
Under the proactive approach, the transmission planner "moves first", taking into account infor-mation on all possible generation opportunities including location, technology, and capacity deci-sions and network expansion costs, and chooses the most efficient network. The generation compa-nies then make their investment decisions taking the transmission network as given. This approach places a great deal of reliance on the efficiency of the planning task. In principle, if the transmission planner has information on all possible generation opportunities, and if more efficient generation can displace less efficient generation in congested locations, this approach will yield efficient coordi-nation of generation and transmission decisions.
Under the reactive approach generation companies “move first”, selecting investment locations, technology, and capacity. The transmission company responds by augmenting the network when forecasted congestion exceeds the acceptable threshold. This approach can also yield efficient coor-dination of generation and transmission investment, provided there is implemented a system of charges for use of the transmission system which reflect the fixed costs of upgrading the transmis-sion network in response to generation investment locations decisions.
2.3.3 Increase of uncertainty due to renewables In cases when renewable generators of significant size are involved, transmission planning is subject to additional uncertainties about where future generation may locate and how power will flow around the network4. Magnifying this effect are uncertainties regarding future subsidies and re-quirements for renewable generation, because a painful fact of transmission planning is that it typi-cally takes much longer to plan, get approvals, and build a high-voltage transmission line than a wind farm or solar generating facility. When generator build times are shorter than those for transmis-sion, planners are forced to either anticipate new generation and build potentially unnecessary in-frastructure or wait for firm generation plans before starting the process and thereby potentially discourage new generation investment.
2.3.4 Objectives and criteria The transmission planning process has to meet several objectives, as for example:
3 See [14] 4 See [10]
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• Provide an adequate transmission system to serve the network users (load demand, genera-tors).
• Balance the risks and expenditures required to ensure a reliable transmission system while maintaining the flexibility to accommodate future uncertainties.
• Maintain adequate transmission thermal capacity and reactive power reserves (in the gen-eration and transmission systems) to accommodate scheduled and unscheduled transmis-sion and generation contingencies.
• Achieve compliance with any reliability standards that are in effect.
• Adhere to applicable regulatory requirements.
• Minimize losses where cost effective.
• Provide for the efficient and economic use of all generating resources in accordance with applicable tariffs and regulatory requirements.
Based on the above, one can use various criteria for transmission expansion, such as5:
• social welfare maximization;
• investment minimization;
• transmission loss minimization;
• minimization of power outage costs.
2.3.5 Transmission planning methods The nature of the transmission expansion problem, from a time perspective is as follows6:
For the long term, i.e. 15-30 years:
• Important to identify the main strategic targets to be fulfilled by development of the trans-mission network
• Main priority should be the synthesis of policies and plans
• Simplified engineering / economic models for analysis are acceptable
In the medium term, i.e. 6-10 years,
• Decisions for network development have to be taken
• Main priority is the analysis of alternative expansion plans
• Detailed models for network analysis are required
In what follows we focus in the medium term (10 years). 5 See [16] 6 See: [9]
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The scale and complexity of the today’s power systems are such that interconnection-wide planning is necessary7. This requires a hierarchical approach encompassing bottom-up and top-down processes. Bottom-up planning is the process of integrating local or regional transmission plans that are based on detailed knowledge of local or regional conditions. Top-down planning involves a central body charged with identifying potentially desirable inter- and intra-regional lines. Both have shortcomings: A solely bottom-up approach will fail to identify potentially desirable lines that traverse regional boundaries. To capture these potential investments, one needs top-down processes, performed as part of interregional, and perhaps interconnection-wide, planning exercises. But a purely top-down process may not be adequately responsive to regional issues or planning processes. A hierarchical hybrid of the two approaches has the potential to respect local and regional needs while still having vision broad enough to recognize interregional opportunities. Such a hybrid approach is seemingly used by ENTSO-E in the EU-wide TYNDP (see following Section 2.4.2 for more details).
Transmission planning involves discrete and long-lived modifications to complex networks in the face of an uncertain future. More technically, transmission planning is characterized by a large num-ber of choices with multiple dimensions, a great deal of uncertainty, large investments, and long periods over which investments must be assessed.
Load characteristics and locations, fuel prices, environmental policies, and generation portfolios may vary substantially over the 50-year lifetime of transmission investments, the network must be de-signed to perform well under a variety of different conditions. These characteristics are compound-ed and the challenges magnified when planning over larger areas and trying to achieve multiple ob-jectives. The current state of the art in transmission planning is able to address power systems on a T SO level, including moderate levels of uncertainty on a scenario basis.
Today in practice, usually the transmission system is planned using expert judgment supported by technical models. The general procedure is to forecast demand 5–10 years into the future, assume a generation fleet adequate to meet the forecasted demand and simulate the system performance at that time. Complex simulations identify reliability issues and potential economic improvements. If the simulations indicate a problem, system reinforcements or other remedies are developed. Next, the simulations are re-run to ensure that the reinforced system meets the prescribed reliability re-quirements and delivered energy costs are reduced (see Figure 28)
Because the transmission system is a complex network, many possible reinforcement options (or ‘alternatives’) can resolve system concerns. In contemporary transmission planning, experts fre-quently define the set of possible reinforcements. Expert planners tend to consider one invest-ment at a time. Forward-looking studies sometimes consider only the design of networks for a static year and single scenario. These analyses do not guarantee an optimal expansion path to the eventu-al desired network. Scenario methods, which consider multiple futures, are also used in many cases.
7 See: ‘The future of the electric grid’, MIT, 2013 8 Source: [9]
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In such cases, it helps if one of the scenarios is defined as the ‘reference’ scenario, which should be the one that best reflects the official (i.e. country / government) energy politics and goals.
On the other hand, optimization techniques (static-in which only the final year of the considered time horizon is analyzed or dynamic-in which the entire time horizon is simultaneously considered) are in principle capable of producing system plans (see Figure 3 from [9]); although they have limita-tions of their own (see [20]). It should be noted here that, from a mathematical point of view, the market-based transmission expansion problem (‘optimum network’ problem) is a complex mixed integer non-linear programming problem. Such techniques may be combined with the aforemen-tioned scenario-based approach. Transmission planning in the new market environment becomes difficult due to factors such as:
• the definition of the objective function (or attribute to measure the goodness of a solution for each scenario, e.g. minimum operation cost, maximum global welfare, etc.) is not straightforward
• the flexibility and dynamics requirements of the transmission planning process the interrela-tionship between the transmission planning and the generation expansion (who acts first?)
• the interrelationship between transmission planning and transmission pricing
• the existence of the reliability, security and quality criteria and their economic implications.
In the following figures9 the transmission planning process using (a) expert judgement supported by modelling and (b) through optimization process is depicted in a schematic way.
Figure 2: Transmission planning: expert judgement supported by modeling
9 Source: [9]
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Figure 3: Transmission planning: the optimization process
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2.4 Review of EU practices for electricity transmission planning
2.4.1 EU Legal and regulatory context There are a number of European Union (EU) documents which have an impact on Transmission Development in the EU:
• Regulation (EC) No 714/2009
• Directive 2009/72/EC
• Directive 2009/28/EC
• Directive 2012/27/EC
The sections in these documents which have an impact on the transmission planning in the EU are discussed below.
EU Member States have different time-horizons for transmission planning, and the whole process is based on Directive 72/2009 and Regulation 714/2009:
d) At national level, according to Directive 72/2009, TSOs have to develop and comply with a ten-year network development plan (TYNDP) monitored by the national regulatory authority (NRA). The TYNDP is approved by the competent Ministry or the NRA. The NRA has to con-sult all actual or potential system users on the TYNDP.
e) At Regional level, according to Regulation 714/2009 EU Transmission system operators have to establish regional cooperation within the ENTSO for Electricity and, among others, publish a (non-binding) regional investment plan every two years, and may take investment deci-sions based on that regional investment plan.
f) At EU level, according to Regulation 714/2009 the ENTSO for Electricity (ENTSO-E) should draw up, publish and regularly update a (non-binding ) Community-wide ten-year network development plan (Community-wide network development plan). Viable electricity trans-mission networks and necessary regional interconnections, relevant from a commercial or security of supply point of view, should be included in that network development plan.
On a thematic area basis, the following are noted:
d) Market Integration
European regulations and directives (Regulation (EC) No 714/2009 and Directive 2009/72/EC) high-light –among others- the need for the creation of interconnection capacities to achieve the objective of a well-functioning efficient and open internal market.
e) Renewable Energy
Directive 28 of 2009 deals with the promotion of the use of renewable sources; Paragraph 2 of Arti-cle 16 requires Member States to ensure that transmission system operators guarantee the transmis-sion of electricity from, and provide priority access to, renewable energy sources. Paragraph 2 also requires Member States to ensure that transmission system operators provide priority dispatch to renewable energy sources in so far as the secure operation of the national electricity system permits.
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f) Energy Efficiency
Directive 27 of 2012 deals with the promotion of energy efficiency. Paragraph 5 of Article 15 requires Member States to ensure that transmission system operators guarantee the transmission of electrici-ty from, and provide priority access to, high-efficiency cogeneration. Paragraph 5 also requires Mem-ber States to ensure that transmission system operators provide priority dispatch to high-efficiency cogeneration in so far as the secure operation of the national electricity system permits.
In terms of national implementation, the EU Directive no 72/2009 defines specific requirements regarding the transmission network development process, including the tasks and duties of TSOs and NRAs, as well as the consultation procedure to be followed when drafting the TYNDP.
In this context, according to article 22 of the EU Directive no 72/2009, the TSOs have the direct responsibility to draft the TYNDP and submit it to their NRAs, while making reasonable assumptions about the evolution of generation, supply, consumption and cross-border exchanges, and taking into account the regional and EU-wide network development plans.
The TSOs shall submit to the NRAs the TYNDP every year after having consulted all relevant stakeholders. The NRAs shall also consult system users and after approval, shall monitor and evaluate the implementation of the TYNDP.
In circumstances where the TSO, other than for overriding reasons beyond its control, does not execute an investment, which, under the ten-year network development plan, was to be executed in the following three years, NRAs may take specific actions or measures to ensure the realization of relevant investments, included in the TYNDP. Such measures or actions include the right of NRAs to organize tenders open to any investors for a particular investment, to require the TSO to execute that particular investment or to oblige the TSO to accept a capital increase to finance the needed investments and allow other independent investors to participate in the capital.
With regards to the implementation of transmission network development measures at the regional (EU) level, it has to be mentioned that a distinct process has been launched within EU, which particularly relates to the facilitation of timely implementation of a certain category of investment projects, called “projects of common interest”. The specific measures that should be applied, rules on financing and cost allocation for these projects, as well as other requirements and conditions for eligibility of projects of common interest (PCI) are established in the EU Regulation no 347/2013 on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure. The list of investment projects defined as PCIs (the so called Union list) shall be established every two years by pre-defined Regional Groups and must be adopted by the European Commission through delegated acts.
In connection with this kind of investments, the EU Regulation no 347/2013 clearly states that in order to be eligible for inclusion in the second and subsequent EU PCI lists, projects should be part of the regional investment plans, developed according to the EU Regulation no 714/2009, while the PCIs included in the first Union list10 shall be included and become an integral part of the relevant
10 The first Union list was adopted by the European Commission through the Commission Delegated Regulation No 1391/2013 of 14 October 2013 amending EU Regulation No 347/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure as regards the Union list of projects of
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regional investment plans, developed according to article 12 of the EU Regulation no 714/2009 and of the latest available national TYNDP, drafted and approved according to EU Directive no 72/2009, while conferring these investment projects the highest possible priority within the TYNDP projects list.
At the level of the Energy Community Treaty, where the Republic of Moldova is a Contracting Party, a list of projects of Energy Community interest (PECI) was also elaborated and approved by the Ministerial Council in 2013, where an overhead high voltage transmission line, connecting the Moldovan and Romanian power systems was included.
2.4.2 The ENTSO-E Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) Three main drivers are mentioned in the ENTSO-E TYNDP. These are briefly described below.
2.4.2.1 Main drivers
RES development is assumed to be the major driver for grid development in the EU until 2030. According to the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014-203011, the generation fleet will experience a major shift by 2030, with the replacement of much of the existing capacities with new ones, most likely located differently and farther from load centres, and involving high RES development. This transformation of the generation infrastructure is the major challenge for the high voltage grid, which must be adapted accordingly.
Interconnection capacity is the second main driver for the ENTSO- TYNDP: the required integration of electricity markets in Europe depends, among others, on the existence of sufficient interconnection capacity among member States. The European Commission has recently adopted a target to achieve a 10% interconnection for each Member State by 202012. In addition, electricity interconnections are expected to increase Europe’s security of supply (improve the reliability of the electricity system). Finally, a more interconnected EU system would also reduce the need for investment in peak generation capacity and storage, as the plants of each country would not be needed at the same time.
Among the other possible drivers for investing on grids is the refurbishment of aging equipment.
2.4.2.2 Main steps
The ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014 is the product of a rigorous 2-year process, involving the following main steps:
• Scenario development (2 bottom-up and 2 top-down scenarios are developed)
• Coordinated planning studies (EU level, regional level)
common interest (OJ L 349, 21.12.2013, p 28). 11 (Link to ENTSO-E TYNDP) 12 (Link to EC COM(2015) 82 )
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• Project identification
• Project assessment
• Market studies - optimal dispatch of generation portfolio within a set of constraints
• Network studies - Load flow analysis of (regional) transmission system
Figure 4: Overview of the TYNDP 2014 process
2.4.2.3 Stakeholders participation and transparency of the process
In the EU TYNDP process, ENTSO-e follows an open approach to maximise the credibility and acceptance of the plan. Thus, ENTSO-E:
• Involves the interested stakeholders through public workshops at EU and regional levels
• publishes documentation on ad-hoc stakeholder feedback requests
• invites the stakeholder for inputs on the scenarios; following such events, ENTSO-E provides a summary and an assessment of stakeholders’ comments
• holds public consultations during various steps of the process (e.g. on significant methodo-logical issues -such as the CBA methodology and the modelling of demand side response-, the scenario data, the draft TYNDP, etc.). In all cases ENTSO-e responds publicly on the con-sultation feedback received.
2.4.2.4 Approval process
There is no approval process per se for the ENTSO-E TYNDP. The EU TYNDP is non-binding but ACER has to provide an opinion on the draft TYNDP and then ENTSO-E submits a final version.
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2.4.2.5 Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
The ENTSO-E CBA methodology uses common principles and procedures, including network and market modeling methodologies, to be used when identifying transmission projects and for measuring cost and benefit indicators in a multi-criteria analysis in view of elaborating Regional Investment Plans and the EU-wide TYNDP.
In order to ensure a full assessment of all transmission benefits, some of the indicators are monetised (inner ring in the below figure), while others are measured through physical units such as tons or kWh (outer ring).
Figure 5: Scope of the ENTSO-E cost benefit analysis
The indicators used for project assessment are shown in the below Figure.
Figure 6: Indicators used in the ENTSO-E CBA methodology
The indicators related to benefits accounted for in the CBA are the following:
• B1. Improved security of supply (SoS); is the ability of a power system to provide an adequate (N-0) and secure (N-1) supply of electricity under ordinary conditions
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• B2. Socio-economic welfare (SEW) or market integration; is characterised by the ability of a power system to reduce congestion and thus provide an adequate GTC so that electricity markets can trade power in an economically efficient manner
• B3. RES integration; the ability of the system to allow the connection of new RES plants and unlock existing and future “green” generation, while also minimising curtailments
• B4. Variation in losses; the evolution of thermal losses in the power system. It is an indicator of energy efficiency.
• B5. Variation in CO2 emissions; the evolution of CO2 emissions in the power system. It is a consequence of B3 (unlock of generation with lower carbon content)
• B6. Technical resilience/system safety; is the ability of the system to withstand increasingly extreme system conditions (exceptional contingencies)
• B7. Flexibility; is the ability of the proposed reinforcement to be adequate in different possible future development paths or scenarios, including trade of balancing services
• GTC: Grid Transfer Capacity (in MW), is the capacity of the network segment to transfer power.
Project assessment is based on market and network studies as shown in Figure 7. The objective of the market and network studies is to achieve a proper assessment of the projects based on the evaluation of the CBA assessment indicators. Some of these indicators stem from market studies and some from network studies, thus projects are analysed using both study types. Commonly, market studies are done first as some of their outputs serve as inputs for the network studies.
Figure 7: The interaction between market and network studies used for project assessment in the ENTSO-E CBA methodology.
The pan-EU market studies
Initially, analysis is performed at EU level, through pan-EU market studies, which depict the following main features:
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• Projections of (hourly) demand profiles for the study year (e.g. the last year of the horizon, in this case 2030)
• Generation plants (conventional, RES) for the study year,
• The generation system is –by construction- ‘adequate’, i.e. able to supply electricity at required reliability in terms of LOLP.
• Hourly optimisation (least cost subject to transmission constraints)
• Transmission grid model relies (in most cases) on a 1-node-per-country (or price zone) principle with simplified transmission capacity limitation modelling between the nodes: it is assumed that there is no internal constraint within the country, whereas the expected transmission capacities with the connected countries are accounted for.
• The expected exchange capacity between two countries (price zones) models the interconnection capacity available to market players. The modelling may be more complex with multiple interlinked restrictions that are driven by the structure of the grid. Total import or export possibilities for a country may be lower than the total capacity on all borders as exchanges capacities may not be simultaneously achievable.
• The pan-European market studies derive from a consistent dataset for all ENTSO-E countries and every Scenario. The datasets and assumptions on electricity demand, generation, and fuel and CO2 prices are harmonised, as well as the modelling of RES with the use of the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD).
• Systems experiencing energy constraints, for example those with significant hydro storage capacities need to adopt annual or multi-annual scopes in order to take into account time of production optimisation.
• The pan-European market studies results are used as boundary conditions to ensure the overall consistency of the (regional) market studies. CBA assessment of the TYNDP projects is then performed using regional market and network studies.
The Regional studies
Regional studies with specifically adapted tools are refined compared to their pan-European equivalent in order to model in more detail important specific features of the national systems within a region.
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Figure 8: ENTSO-E regions
The Regional market studies
The purpose of the market studies is to investigate the impact of the new interconnection projects by comparing two different grid situations (WITH / WITHOUT the project) in terms of
• economic efficiency,
• the ability of the system to schedule plants to their intrinsic merit-order,
• the overall resulting variable generation costs as well as
• the overall amount of CO₂ emissions and volumes of spilled energy.
Outcomes of market studies are generation-supply balances in every country/price zone and in particular generation and exchange patterns (“bulk power flows”). For every scenario, the market study answers the question “which generation (location/type) is going to serve demand (location) in any hour of the study year?”
An economic optimisation is conducted for every hour of the year taking into account several constraints, such as the flexibility and availability of thermal units, wind and solar profiles, load profile and uncertainties, and transmission capacities between countries.
The Regional network studies
Network studies enable detailed assessment of the behavior of the transmission grid under different assumptions (among others the effect of the growing installed capacities of RES, peak demand,
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weather conditions, etc.) that are not captured by the market studies.
The purpose of the network studies is to find out whether or not the power flows from the market studies jeopardises the security and reliability of the transmission systems, i.e. if all transmission system elements are loaded up to their rating values during normal operation, have maintenance or outage contingencies occurred (fulfillment of the N-1 criterion).
For every scenario, network studies answer the question “will the outcome -dispatch of generation and load in every hour of the market study result in power flows that endanger the safe operation of the system (accounting especially for the well-known N-1 rule)?” If ‘YES’, transmission projects are then designed, tested and evaluated for all relevant cases.
Studied cases explore a variety of dispatch situations: frequent ones or rare ones that result in particularly extreme flow patterns.
Following the above, a more detailed overview of the process and link between Market Studies and Network Studies is depicted in Figure 9 below.
Figure 9: Overview of the process and link between Market Studies and Network Studies in the ENTSO-E CSE Regional Investment Plan 2014.
Calculation of indicators
The calculation of the indicators used for the CBA methodology stems from the market and network (grid) studies as follows:
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Table 1: Calculation of CBA indicators through market and network studies
More detailed description of the indicators, the methodologies used for their calculation as well as the limitations of the whole process is described in APPENDIX B of the ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014.
2.4.2.6 Methodologies and tools
In order to perform a market study, the demand must be modeled and is usually assumed dependent on weather conditions. Additionally, generation connected to the distribution level and thus seen as negative demand by TSOs or smart grids may lead to the need to enrich this model. At the same time, the generation features (especially a cost function) must be modeled, and these depend on several parameters such as fuel prices, type and conditions of the generation plants, etc. Most market study tools rely on probabilistic modeling13. In market studies, as already mentioned above, the modeling of the transmission grid itself in most cases is done with a 1-node-per-country (or price zone) principle with simplified transmission capacity limitation modeling between the nodes: it is assumed that there is no internal constraint within the country, whereas the expected transmission capacities with the connected countries are accounted for.
While in models for market studies one country is represented primarily by one node with generation, consumption and transfer capacities between countries (nodes) and results are available for every hour in a year, in network studies the models represent detailed transmission systems with all busses, lines and transformers and results are for one ”Point In Time” (e.g. one hour). In terms of complexity, a continental Europe model might include more than 6000 nodes and 10000 grid elements. In network studies:
• The basic computation is a steady-state load flow, i.e. simulating the power flows on every grid element resulting from a specific generation dispatch. Voltage at every node and currents in every branch must remain within secured ranges.
• The check is performed with all grid elements available and with consideration of the outage
13 See Section 2.8.16-Tools used by ENTSO-E TSOs for market and network studies for more details.
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of every grid element and power unit (N-1 criterion), and thus for every Point in Time (hour), possibly considering several options for grid topology and testing remedial measures.
Additional investigations can be performed regarding short circuit current limitations or transient phenomena.
More detailed information about the tools used by ENTSO-E is provided in Section 2.8.16Tools used by ENTSO-E TSOs for market and network studies.
2.5 Background National TYNDP (KO, RO, UA, GE, GR, IR)
The present section describes briefly the main features of TYNDPs from EU countries with transmission systems of similar size to the Moldovan system (Ireland, Kosovo, Greece) as well as the TYNDPs of the neighbouring systems of Romania and Ukraine.
2.5.1 The Romanian TYNDP
Main features of the Romanian TYNDP14 are listed below.
Boundary15 of Transmission System “Transelectrica” SA is the only operator providing electricity transmission services, operational technical management of the Romanian Power System and electricity market administration (by means of its subsidiary OPCOM SA), such domains being considered as a natural monopoly under the law. The National Power Grid Company “Transelectrica SA” is transmitting the electricity by means of the power transmission grid (PTG), consisting of electric substations and lines. The Romanian PTG is defined as the electricity network of national and strategic interest, with nominal voltage higher than 110 kV.
Responsibilities16 of the TSO “Transelectrica” SA is responsible for electricity transmis-sion, system and market operation, grid and market infra-structure development ensuring the security of the Ro-manian power system. It also serves as the main link be-tween electricity supply and demand, matching all the times power generation with demand.
Functions17 of the TSO Transmission and System Operator of the Romanian Power System
14 http://www.transelectrica.ro/documents/10179/25146/Planul+de+dezvoltare+a+RET+2016-2025.pdf 15 http://transelectrica.ro/en/web/tel/transport-detalii 16 http://www.transelectrica.ro/en/web/tel/despre-noi1 17 http://www.transelectrica.ro/en/web/tel/functiuni
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- the grid infrastructure - the dispatching infrastructure (EMS/SCADA – En-
ergy Management System/Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) which is accomplished within the National Operational Dispatch Unit (DEN) and the five Territorial Dispatching Centers (DET)
- capacity allocation on interconnections - green certificates - develops and submits a TYNDP on a 2-year basis
Balancing Market Operator -OPE - the balancing market platform
Commercial Operator of the electricity market - OPCOM , a legal subsidiary
- trading platforms - green certificates trading platform
Metering operator of the wholesale electricity mar-ket – Metering Division OMEPA
- metering system Telecommunication and IT operator –TELETRANS, a
legal subsidiary - the optic fiber, digital telecom system
Objectives and drivers18 The strategic directions of development which were con-sidered in preparation of programme and setting forth the technical solutions, in compliance with the mission and objectives of CNTEE “Transelectrica” S.A., are the following:
• To carry out the maintenance, improvement and development of PTG and interconnection capaci-ties in order to maintain the safety of the overall NPS operation, in compliance with the License no. 161/2000, rev.2/2005;
• Introduce the most advanced technologies existing worldwide;
• Promote the remote control of the installations in PTG stations;
• Obtain a major role on regional and European elec-tricity market;
• Increase the capacity of interconnection with neighboring systems;
18 Romanian TYNDP (eng.vers.), page 11.
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• Increase the volume of transmitted power; • Promote the solutions leading to PTG loss reduc-
tion; • Reduce PTG congestions.
The minimum cost development and operation of PTG is based on the principle of optimal development and usage of transmission system. This scope is also supported by the signals sent through regional tariffs on:
• Placement of the new consumers, preferably, in the excess areas of the system;
• Placement of the new producers, preferably in the deficit areas of the system;
• Most efficient usage of existing transmission ca-pacities;
• Integration into the European electricity market. The role of the NRA regarding TYNDP The National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE) is re-
sponsible for approving the Romanian TYNDP.19 Relationship with the EU/regional planning
“Transelectrica” SA has representatives in two regional ENTSO-E groups (responsible for analysis and develop-ment of Regional TYNDPs): Continental Central-East and Continental South-East.20
Stakeholder involvement • The TSO has to perform a public consultation be-fore submitting the draft TYNDP to ANRE.
• The ANRE also carries out public consultations during the approval process.
Technical analyses performed • Steady-state analysis • Transient Stability analysis • Voltage analysis • Stability analysis
Models and Tools used21 Calculation programs are used in preparation of PTG Per-spective Plan in order to:
- Determine the development programs with mini-mum costs, the electricity generation capacities - PowrSym3;
- Detailed simulation of the operation of all con-sumption and production capacities and the transmission capacity in NPS (Load Flow NIL and Power Systems Simulator / Engineers – PSS/E);
19 Romanian TYNDP 2014-2023, page 9. 20 Romanian TYNDP 2014-2023, page 26. 21 Romanian TYNDP (eng.vers.), page 13.
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- Forecast of the electricity required on entire NPS assembly and in territorial allotment (ConStat);
- PowrSym3 interface – Load Flow NIL and PSS/E – ConStat;
- Determine the zonal transmission tariff (STT – Simplified Transmission Tariff).
Report presentation A brief history of the TYNDP development in Romania over the last years is presented below:
• The first pilot TYNDP was completed by ENTSO-E in May 2010.
• In 2012, the second TYNDP was finalized. • In 2014, the TYNDP for the period 2014-2023 was de-
veloped by Transelectrica SA and was approved by ANRE.
• Recently, a draft TYNDP for the period 2016-2025 has been developed by Transelectrica SA and has been placed for consultation on the TSO website.
All these TYNDPs were published on the ENTSO-E website (www.entsoe.eu).22
2.5.2 The Ukrainian TYNDP Main features of the Ukrainian TYNDP23 are listed below.
Boundary24 of Transmission System State Enterprise "National Power Company" Ukrenergo"- vertically integrated natural monopoly in electricity transmission, consisting of electric substations and lines, with nominal voltage 220 kV and higher.
The purpose and main activities25 of the TSO
• Ensure the integrity of the Ukrainian Power Sys-tem,
• To balance production and consumption of elec-tricity in the country;
• Ensuring the parallel work of power systems of neighboring countries and the EU, technical sup-port for the export / import of electricity;
• Ensuring effective operation and development of
22 Romanian TYNDP 2014-2023, page 26. 23 http://www.ukrenergo.energy.gov.ua/Pages/ua/DetailsNew.aspx?nID=2132 24 http://www.ukrenergo.energy.gov.ua/pages/ua/targetandspheresofresponsibility.aspx 25 http://www.ukrenergo.energy.gov.ua/pages/ua/aboutthecompany.aspx
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the network elements of 220 kV and above; • Participation in developing the concept and per-
spective plans of Power System of Ukraine, etc. Role of the main entities regarding the development and approval of the Ukrainian TYNDP
Inputs: Development scenarios and visions are pre-pared by the Ministry for Energy and Mines and Ukrenergo.
Preparation: The TYNDP is prepared by Ukrenergo and submitted to the Ministry for Energy and Mines.
Approval: The UA TYNDP is discussed and agreed by the Government, is approved by the Ministry for Energy and Mines.
Monitoring of implementation: implementation of the UA TYNDP is controlled by the Ministry for Energy and Mines.
The “Coordination issue” (queuing, guarantee, etc)
A ‘top-down’ approach is adopted, in the sense that the generation plants to be developed and connected to the grid are decided centrally (by the competent Ministry.
Relationship with the EU/regional planning
Ukrainian Power System works in parallel with the Power Systems of Belarus, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federa-tion, except for so-called "island Burstyn Power Plant" (includes Burstyn SPP, Kalush CHP, and Tereble-Riksku HPP), which operates synchronously with the European network of transmission system operators for electricity (ENTSO-E). The interconnection between the Power Sys-tem of Ukraine and neighboring power systems are made through 110-750 kV lines. 26 A Priority Actions Plan describing the organizational and technical measures to prepare Power System of Ukraine to work synchronous with ENTSO-E, which should be completed within 2016-2017, has been developed. The total cost of these measures is estimated to be around 2.8 ban HRU. 27
Stakeholder involvement State Enterprise "National Power Company" Ukrenergo" is subordinated and belongs to the Ministry for Energy and Mines of Ukraine.28
Report presentation The first version of TYNDP was developed by Ukrenergo in October 201529 and was approved in January 2016. Cur-
26 Ukrainian TYNDP, page 9. 27 Ukrainian TYNDP, page 44, annex 8. 28 http://www.ukrenergo.energy.gov.ua/pages/ua/aboutthecompany.aspx
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rently, Ukrenergo collects data necessary for developing the TYNDP for the 2017-2026 periods. 30
29 http://www.ukrenergo.energy.gov.ua/Pages/ua/DetailsNew.aspx?nID=1687 30 http://www.ukrenergo.energy.gov.ua/Pages/ua/DetailsNew.aspx?nID=2443
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2.5.3 The Greek TYNDP Main features of the Greek TYNDP are listed below.
Boundary of Transmission System The transmission system comprises equipment in the following voltage levels: 400kV, 150kV.
The interface between the Transmission System and the installation of a System User is generally located at the circuit-breaker connecting the two Systems, on the HV side of the power transformer of the System User. The circuit-breaker belongs to the User. Detailed provisions in this regard shall be stipulated in the respective Connection Contract.
Functions and responsibilities of the TSO
The TSO develops and submits a TYNDP on a 2-year basis.
Main drivers Integration of intermittent RES (PV and wind plants), according to the national target of achieving ~38% of electricity generated from RES by 2020.
The role of the NRA regarding TYNDP The NRA (RAE) approves the TYNDP. Has to organise a formal public consultation before approving.
The “Coordination issue” Strategic directions: in the TYNDP the TSO provides the main strategic directions for Tr. Network development stemming from the main drivers.
Planning taking into account users’ needs:
• The TSO has to expand / reinforce the tr. System to accommodate the new users.
• The TSO, when planning, takes into account the anticipated needs of the existing and users to be connected in the near future.
Connection / booking of network capacity by new Generators:
• The TSO does not provide (binding) connection offer in case there is no currently available (or foreseen to be available according to the TYNDP) transmission capacity at the relevant part of the grid.
• In some cases financial guarantees are provided by prospective system users in order to book ca-pacity on the system.
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Stakeholder involvement The TSO has to perform a public consultation before submitting the draft TYNDP to the NRA.
The NRA also performs a public consultation during the approval process.
Relationship with the EU/regional planning
The Greek TSO (ADMIE SA) participates in the regional planning process of ENTSO-E.
2.5.4 The Georgian TYNDP Main features of the first Georgian TYNDP (2015-2025) are listed below.
Boundary of Transmission System According to the GE TYNDP31, the transmission system consists of 500/400/330/220/110/35 kV transmission facilities (p. 34).
Objectives and drivers32 • Meet the growing demand in the power system • Connection of new energy resources / integration
of new HPPs into the network; • Alleviate network bottlenecks; Uninterruptable
transmission services for the existing generation; • Fulfillment of single contingency (N-1) criterion
(improvement of reliability) • Increase network potential for cross-border ex-
changes in electricity; • Improvement of power quality e.g. through con-
struction of reliable power supply centres for supporting potential developments in important end-use sectors (industry, tourism)
Role of the main entities regarding the development and approval of the Georgian TYNDP
Inputs: Development scenarios and visions are prepared by the Ministry for Energy and GSE. Commissioning years of the planned hydropower plants were provided by the Ministry for Energy
Preparation: The TYNDP is prepared by GSE and submitted to the Ministry of Energy and the Georgian National Energy and Water Regulatory Commission.
Approval: The GE TYNDP is discussed and agreed by the Government, is approved by the Ministry of Energy.
Monitoring of implementation: implementation of the GE TYNDP is controlled by the Ministry of Energy
31 http://www.gse.com.ge/new/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TYNDP_GE_2015-2025_ENG.pdf 32 Georgian TYNDP, p.54
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The “Coordination issue” (queuing, guarantee, etc.)
A ‘top-down’ approach is adopted, in the sense that the generation plants to be developed and connected to the grid are decided centrally (by the competent Ministry).
Relationship with the EU/regional planning
-
Involvement of stakeholders The Ministry of Energy, GNEWRC, GSE, the electricity transmission licensees, other agencies and interested parties took part in discussions of GE TYNDP. There is no evidence that a formal public consultation has taken place.
Technical analyses performed • Power flow analysis • Short circuit analysis • Voltage analysis • Stability analysis • Harmonic analysis
Models and Tools used The following are mentioned in the GE TYNDP : • PSS/E software tools for power flow, short circuit
and system reliability • Digisilent Power Factory s/w for harmonic analy-
sis Presentation of results Results are presented for 3 horizons :
• Three years (2015-2017), i.e. projects for which feasibility studies are already under performance or completed by consultant companies
• Five years (2018-2019), i.e. projects for which feasibility studies have not been started so far.
• Ten years (2020-2025), i.e. projects for which fea-sibility studies have not been started so far. How-ever, the necessity of such projects has already been determined
2.5.5 The Irish TYNDP
Boundary of Transmission System 400 kV, 275 kV, 220 kV and 110 kV high voltage lines and cables (p.9-10).
Functions and responsibilities of the TSO
The TSO (EirGrid) is assigned the following exclusive function:
“to operate and ensure the maintenance of and, if necessary, develop a safe, secure, reliable, economical, and efficient electricity transmission system, and to explore and develop opportunities for interconnection of its system with other systems with a view to ensuring that all reasonable demands for
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electricity are met having due regard for the environment.”
The TSO has a statutory obligation and a licence obligation to produce a Transmission Development Plan.
Objectives and drivers strategic objectives are as follows: • Ensuring the security of electricity supply; • Ensuring the competitiveness of the national
economy; • Ensuring the long-term sustainability of electricity
supply in the country Specific drivers of investment in transmission network infrastructure are therefore identified, and are:
• Securing transmission network supplies; • Promoting market integration; • Promoting the integration of RES and comple-
mentary thermal generation. The role of the NRA regarding TYNDP
Transmission Planning Criteria • Loss of any single item of generation or transmis-sion plant (Winter Peak, Summer Peak, Summer Valley)
• Overlapping single contingency and generator outage (Winter Peak, Summer Peak, Summer Val-ley)
• Trip-Maintenance i.e. loss of any single item of generation or transmission plant when another circuit is out on maintenance (Summer Peak, Summer Valley)
The “Coordination issue” (queuing, guarantee, etc.)
Requirement to accommodate renewable generation under the “Group Processing Approach”33. The Irish NRA (CER) has approved a connection offer process whereby generation connection applications are processed on a grouped or “gate” basis; this allows a more comprehensive approach for transmission planning by the TSO.
Relationship with the EU/regional planning
The Irish TSO participates in the regional planning process of ENTSO-E.
high level strategies to optimise transmission network development
By making more effective use of the existing system, the Irish TSO can delay large investment or avoid the need for additional circuits. Examples of this strategy include:
• Using higher capacity conductors to uprate exist-ing lines and allow greater power flows;
33 See: http://www.eirgridgroup.com/customer-and-industry/becoming-a-customer/generator-connections/
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• Installing phase shifting transformers, as is the case in Dublin, to manage power flows on cables and delay the need for additional cables;
• Using relatively low cost capacitors to support voltages, thus delaying until necessary larger in-vestment in lines and stations;
• Installing 400/220 kV and 220/110 kV stations ra-ther than new lines where economically viable to relieve the stress on the underlying 220 kV and 110 kV networks and make better use of the ca-pacity of the high voltage networks;
• Consideration to applications for temporary der-ogations in scenarios where the cost of develop-ment is unduly onerous.
2.5.6 The importance of the Romanian and Ukraine TYNDPs to Moldova power system Moldova is interconnected with Romania and Ukraine, but all these systems do not operate in parallel. Currently the Moldovan power system operates in synchronization with the power system of Ukraine while synchronization with Romania is carried out in island mode.
Given that TSOs from Romania and Ukraine have already developed their TYNDPs, Moldelectrica must take into account the development prospects of neighboring power systems when developing its own Ten Years Network Development Plan.
The TYNDP Structure drafted by the TSOs of Romania and Ukraine differs significantly, as Ukraine has drafted a TYNDP for the first time in January 2016, while Romania already updated it repeatedly.
Following a detailed examination of the Ukrainian and Romanian TYNDPs, and given their importance as neighbouring systems, studies, and a summary of related projects to be considered by Moldelectrica when developing the Moldovan TYNDP is presented in Annex 1.
Both Romania and Ukraine are planning to put into operation in the next 10 years more renewable energy sources. These developments will have an impact on the electricity system of the Republic of Moldova and therefore, the network development measures, included in the Romanian and Ukrainian TYNDPs must be taken into consideration when developing the Moldovan TYNDP.
2.6 Legal and Regulatory Framework on Transmission Planning in Moldova
2.6.1 Primary legislation
Currently, the primary legislative framework, governing the electricity sector in the Republic of Moldova is defined by
-the Law on energy, no. 1525 from 19.02.1998 (currently under revision),
- the Law on electricity, no. 124 from 23.12.2009 (amended and republished in 2014),
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- the Law on energy efficiency, no. 142 from 02.07.2010 and
- the Law on renewable energy, no. 160 from 12.07.2007 ( a new version of the Law on promotion of use of energy from renewable sources, no. 10 from 26.02.2016, will enter into force starting from 25.03.2017).
The Law on electricity establishes the main regulatory principles applied in the electricity sector in order to ensure the efficient and reliable operation of the electric system, as well as the legal framework for organization of the electricity market, market liberalization, security of supply and other provisions related to licensing, authorization, unbundling of activities, etc.
In addition, the Law on electricity transposes two EU Directives, namely the EU Directive no. 2003/54/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 June 2003 concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity and the EU Directive no. 2005/89/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 January 2006 concerning measures to safeguard security of electricity supply and infrastructure investment. Thus, the principles from the 2nd EU energy packages were transposed in the Moldovan legislation with the adoption of the current Law on electricity and its subsequent amendments.
Regarding the development of the transmission grid, the Law on electricity contains several general provisions in this regard. In particular, art. 35, par. c) from the Law on electricity sets the obligation for the TSO to ensure long term transmission capacities in order to meet the reasonable requests for electricity transmission services by developing and implementing long-term transmission network development plans, while taking into consideration the electricity production and consumption forecasts. Moreover, (according to art. 35, par. m), the TSO has the obligation to develop and submit to ANRE for approval a 5 years investment plan that can be adjusted on a yearly basis.
Therefore, the current primary legislation does not provide a detailed mechanism that would ensure an effective transmission planning process and the specific functions/duties of the TSO regarding network planning and elaboration of a long term network development plan are not well defined.
Concerning tariffs, Moldelectrica determines the transmission network tariffs and submits to ANRE the request for revision of the tariff, indicating the amount and presenting its calculations. ANRE examines the request, verifying the calculations and after excluding unnecessary and non-justifiable costs, approves the final tariff.
Nevertheless, a new version of the Law on electricity has been drafted and currently is being discussed in the Parliamentary Committees34. The new draft law on electricity transposes the principles from the 3rd EU energy package and introduces new network planning principles and more detailed tasks for the TSO in this regard.
The new draft law on electricity states in art. 34 that the TSO must ensure development of the electric transmission network and shall draft a development plan of the electric transmission networks for ten years while taking into consideration the energy strategy approved by the
34 The new draft law on electricity was approved by the Government on 08.10.2015 (Government Resolution no. 688).
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Government, the forecasted and the actual supply and demand of electricity. Moreover, detailed requirements are provided in the same article regarding the development of the TYNDP, the general content/structure of a TYNDP, the consultation procedure to be followed by the TSO and by the Regulator, as well as regarding the approval and implementation of the TYNDP.
In addition, the new draft law on electricity provides for implementation of full ownership unbundling.
2.6.2 Secondary legislation
In terms of secondary legislation, ANRE developed and approved the Technical norms of transmission network (Resolution no. 266 from 20.11.2007) that contain a chapter dedicated specifically to transmission network planning (Chapter IV) and drafting of network development plans. In particular, chapter IV of Technical norms of transmission network specifies the data and inputs to be considered by the TSO when developing the long term plan, the objectives to be followed by the TSO’s planning activity and the technical criteria to be used by the TSO in order to verify the system stability and reliability. Moreover, an exhaustive list of data that has to be provided to the TSO by network users during the network connection process is established in the Annexes to the Technical norms of transmission network. This data can also be used by the TSO for network planning purposes.
However, even if the Technical Norms of transmission network approved by ANRE contain more detailed provisions for the TSO related to long term network planning, Moldelectrica submits to ANRE investment plans on a yearly basis.
It is to be mentioned also that during last year ANRE developed a draft Regulation on planning, implementation and approval for tariff setting purposes of investments on the energy sector. The purpose of this Regulation is to define the types of investments to be included in yearly investment plans by network operators (including the TSO), the evaluation criteria for proposed investments, the procedures to be followed by network operators when planning and developing the investment plans, reporting requirements regarding the implementation of the investment plans and how the implemented (realized) investments are accepted for tariff setting purposes.
Since this draft Regulation refers to yearly investment plans, it is still unclear how the long term network planning activities and the development by the TSO of the TYNDP will interact with the application of the principles described in the draft Regulation.
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2.7 The requirements of the draft Electricity Law of Moldova with respect to the TYNDP
The draft electricity Law of Moldova poses a series of requirements with respect to the content of the Moldovan TYNDP. These requirements are summarized in Table 2. The second column of the table provides a reference to paragraphs in the next section (2.8) in which detailed information for covering the respective requirement is provided.
Table 2: Requirements of the draft Electricity Law of Moldova with respect to the TYNDP content
Requirement with respect to content Paragraph no. effective measures to guarantee the reliability of the power system and the security of electricity supply
n.a.
information on the investments already laid down and identify new investments which have to be carried out in three years and to provide a time frame for all investment projects
2,11,13
description of the existing infrastructure, its current status and degree of wear and tear,
2
the list of interventions carried out in the last year, and 2 the results obtained from studies conducted on the development of electrical networks and the installation of electronic measurement;
2,3,4,5
description of transport networks and related objectives, needed to be built, upgraded over the next ten years.
4,11,13
the integration scenarios of power plants that produce electricity from renewable energy sources in terms of cost-benefit analysis, in accordance with national targets set out in the regulatory acts in the field of renewable energy;
2,5,6
the timing for the investment projects planned to be undertaken in the next decade;
14
estimation of the necessary capabilities, forecasting the evolution of production, including production of renewable energy, energy efficiency measures, consumption and forecast estimates of imports;
3,5,6
description of funds and investments needed to meet the demand of electricity, estimated
14
description of the investments which have been approved and to be approved and carried out in the next three years, as well as the time frame for implementation of such projects;
2,14
objectives to be achieved as a result of the implementation of the development plan, in particular as regards the duration of the interruptions and voltage in electrical grids.
9 (re. voltage levels)
reasonable assumptions regarding the evolution of the generation, supply, electricity consumption and cross-border trade with other countries, taking into account investment plans for adjacent networks.
3,5,6
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2.8 Proposed contents of the future Moldovan TYNDP
This Section presents a proposal for the content of the Moldovan TYNDP as well as suggestions on methodological issues as well as tools which could be used for the analyses related to the elaboration of the TYNDP. The Section is based not only on the requirements of the Moldovan draft Electricity Law presented in the previous section but also on existing experience and best practices applied in EU countries concerning their TYNDPs.
In order to cover the above requirements (of Sections 2.7 and 2.8), the following Steps are proposed. Each Step is then further analysed in what follows in Section 2.8.
1. Description of the Legal basis, scope and objectives: This Step includes brief description of the prevailing legislation and its main requirements regarding the TYNDP).
2. Description of the existing situation and prospects: This Step includes description the current situation of the country in terms of economic growth, energy conditions and environmental constraints and targets related to the power system as well as prospects of evolvement of these issues in the next 5-10 years); the section also includes a review of trends in installing new generation (conventional , RES) and recent developments and issues identified in the country’s transmission system and the progress from the previous TYNDP.
3. Analysis of demand: Analysis of the historical trend of electricity and peak load demand as well as prospects for evolution of these parameters in the next decade is performed.
4. Identification of Drivers of the TYNDP: Based on the two previous Steps, the main needs which have to be met by the transmission network in the planning horizon are depicted, including security of supply of electricity under N-1, allow the connection / operation of new generators, interconnection with neighboring systems/markets, etc.
5. Development of Scenarios: This step involves the development of 2 sets of scenarios:
-the first set deals with the evolution of main parameters affecting the power system, such as economic growth, degree of development of interconnectors, degree of development of RES, etc.
-the second set of scenarios entails detailed (yearly) projections of the electricity and peak load demand; these scenarios are based on the ones developed previously concerning the main parameters (econ. growth, interconnectors, RES).
Remark: The choice of the three parameters mentioned above (economic growth, interconnectors, RES) as main parameters to drive the whole analysis reflects the currently prevailing conditions in the country and as such it should be re-assessed in every round of the TYNDP development, whether these specific parameters continue to be the only ones mainly affecting the evolution of the Moldovan power system.
6. Analysis of adequacy of the generation system: based on the demand scenarios developed in the previous steps, the generation system is analysed (usually through probabilistic simulation of operation) for each year of the 10 year planning horizon. Such analysis, might follow a weekly step and assume ‘copper plate’ (i.e. neglecting transmission) to determine
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the degree to which the assumed generation capacity in conjunction with interconnections’ contribution meet the assumed load demand at the specified level of reliability (LOLP / LOLE criteria). The output of this step is a generation system with the necessary installed capacity that covers the assumed demand in each scenario at the specified reliability level.
7. Dispatch simulation of the generation system: this step provides information about the expected loading behavior of the generation system to help identify potential ‘stress’ hours of operation of the power system during which the transmission system has to perform adequately. Usually this involves hourly simulation of the operation of the power system for the 8760 hours or at selected hours (e.g. hours of peak demand) during the target year, (i.e. the last year of the 10-years planning horizon). The output of this step provides, for each demand scenario, the loading of generation units during the specific hours of analysis so that analysis of the transmission network can be performed at a next step. Again, transmission is neglected in this step.
8. Development of network models: this step involves the design, for each demand scenario, of the transmission network for the target year based on the analysis performed in the previous Steps. The ‘target’ year is supposed to be the study year (e.g. year +10 in case of a TYNDP) in which all known and reasonably assumed prospective generation & transmission investments have been embodied. For each scenario, the target network should approximate the network of minimum cost which satisfies the requirements for transmission service at specified reliability (demand coverage, connection of generators, interconnection targets, N-1, etc.).
Given the scenarios developed in STEP 4, the following approach is proposed for development of network models for the target year (n+10):
-produce a first version of the network for year n+10 by including in the current (year n) network all currently foreseen projects to be implemented by year n+10 (e.g. the ones already included in the approved 5-year investment plan);
-then, for each scenario, identify all necessary projects which are further required in order to meet the needs and reliability criteria on the basis of the assumptions concerning demand and peak load of each scenario.
9. Network Analysis: this step involves the technical studies (network studies) for the networks developed in the previous step (at first the steady state analysis). Depending on the results of the analysis, necessary interventions (projects) are identified and further examined for the purpose of network reinforcement, in order to eliminate any problems and violations of the planning criteria detected during this iterative process. In case more than one investment is identified for the purpose of solving an identified violation or problem, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is conducted according to the next step, so that a ‘winner’ is chosen for each set of examined alternatives.
10. CBA for transmission projects: A CBA should be carried out
o to assess whether to implement or not a specific transmission project
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o or to compare ‘competing’ projects (i.e. alternative technical solutions / projects serving the same purpose)
In the first case, CBA is usually carried out to justify major projects (e.g. interconnectors).
Brief guidance about conducting CBA for transmission projects is provided in Section 2.8.11.
11. The necessary projects: The above process provides, for each scenario, a set of necessary projects. These projects have emerged as necessary in order to cover needs to connect and / or serve loads and generators at the required level of reliability or to interconnect with neighboring systems. A time plan of such projects depends on a more detailed assessment of the potential evolution of the respective parameters of the power system (progress of construction of new plants, evolution of demand, etc.).
Projects which are necessary in all scenarios should be given priority for approval / construction (e.g. be included in the 3-5 year investment plan of the TSO).
12. Available connection capacity at specific points of the transmission network: The TYNDP should provide to prospective users (in this case potential generators from RES) the capacity of the network to accommodate injections from RES plants at specific locations. An estimate of the costs involved should be also provided where feasible.
13. Additional projects: Further to the above described ‘necessary’ projects, the TSO should examine and propose investment which increases the economic efficiency of the transmission system. In this category may be considered projects which reduce transmission losses. A CBA should always accompany such proposals.
14. Time plan and cost: the TYNDP should include summary tables with all transmission projects identified in the previous steps, their main phases and timeline for implementation, and a cost estimate.
2.8.1 Legal basis
According competences and functions established by the Electricity Law no. 124 of 23.12.2009 (amended on 07.30.2015) and related conditions of the License no. AA 064574 (issued by ANRE at 10.06.2008) for electricity transmission and system services, national transmission system operator SE "Moldelectrica" is obliged to ensure long-term capacity electricity transmission networks to cover reasonable requests for service of electricity transmission, developed and applied perspective plans on expansion and development of electricity transmission networks, taking into account the forecast production and electricity consumption, planning PTG development, and elaborate every two years and a development plan for the next 10 successive years (TYNDP), subject to approval by ANRE.
The new draft law on electricity states in art. 34 that the TSO must ensure development of the electric transmission network and shall draft a development plan of the electric transmission networks for ten years while taking into consideration the energy strategy approved by the Government, the forecasted and the actual supply and demand of electricity.
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2.8.2 Scope & Objectives
The transmission network planning process has the following objectives:
- Safeguard the reliable operation of the power system and the adequate quality of the electricity transmission service corresponding to the requirements and conditions of the Technical Norms of electricity transmission network and in accordance with the quality indicators established in the Regulation on quality of transmission service, approved by ANRE;
- Ensure that the transmission network is properly sized in order to meet the electricity expected to be produced, consumed, imported, exported and transited;
- Ensure the availability of the transmission infrastructure required for the efficient functioning of the electricity market;
- Provide the nondiscriminatory and transparent access to the transmission network for network users, in the conditions established by the national legislation;
- Minimize investment costs when choosing the optimum solutions of transmission network development.
2.8.3 Existing situation
2.8.3.1 General information (geography, demographics and economy)
Geography35
The Republic of Moldova is placed in the central part of Europe in the North - Eastern Balkans. Moldova occupies an area of 33,843.5 km2. The capital of Moldova is Chisinau. On the North, East and South Moldova is surrounded by Ukraine, and on the West it is separated from Romania by the Prut River. The total length of the national boundaries is 1,389 km, including 939 km with Ukraine and 450 km with Romania.
The Republic of Moldova belongs to the group of countries located in the Black Sea Basin. It maintains close mutually advantageous commercial ties with these countries as well as the countries located in the Danube Basin. The southern border of the country extends almost as far as the Black Sea, which can be accessed through the Nistru Liman and the Danube River.
35 http://moldova.md/en/geografie/
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Figure 10: Map of Moldova
The geographical position of the Republic of Moldova has determined the specific features of its natural conditions.
The landscape of the country represents a hilly plain sloping from the northwest to the southeast and having an average elevation of around 147 m above the sea level. The central part is occupied by Codrii woods, the most elevated topographical region with the maximum altitude of 429.5 m at Hill Balanesti, Nisporeni Raion (district) and a terrain strongly fragmented by valleys and dales. Erosion, land-sliding and recent tectonic upward movements have led to the formation of hardtops (Romanian: valleys between hills), which represent amphitheatres with open ends facing river valleys. Many rural settlements are located in such landforms. The terrain of the southwest of the country and the region along the lower course of the Nistru River represents a less fragmented plain.
The climate of the Republic of Moldova is moderately continental. It is characterized by a lengthy frost-free period, short mild winters, lengthy hot summers, modest precipitation, and long dry periods in the south. The average annual temperature increases southward from around 8-9°C in the north to around 10-11°C in the south. The average annual precipitation varies between 600-650 mm in the north and the centre and 500-550 mm in the south and the southeast.
The hydrographic network includes more than 3,000 rivers and rivulets, of which 10 exceed a length of 100 km. The main rivers are the Nistru (1,352 km, including 657 km within the borders of the country), the Prut (976 km, including 695 km within the borders of the country), the Raut (286 km), the Cogalnic (243 km, including 125 km within the borders of the country), the Bic (155 km), and the Botna (152 km). Moldova has about 60 natural lakes and 3,000 reservoirs. The largest Moldovan lakes are Beleu, Dracele, Rotunda, Fontan, Bic and Rosu, each with a water surface area exceeding 1 km2. The largest reservoirs in the country, each with a water capacity exceeding 30 million m3, are Costesti-Stanca, Dubasari, Cuciurgan, Taraclia, and Ghidighici.
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Economy36
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the declaration of its independence on 27 August 1991, the Republic of Moldova passed through a complex stage of transition to the market economy and experienced a significant economic recession.
The economic crisis in Moldova lasted for 10 years (from 1990 to 1999). During this period the GDP decreased significantly as shown in Table 337.
Table 3: GDP of the Republic of Moldova during 1990-1999
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 GDP growth (annual %) -2,4 -16 -29,1 -1,2 -30,9 -1,4 -5,2 1,6 -6,5 -3,4
Since 2000 the economy has been recovering. This period is characterized by a steady recovery of the production output, which had a partly impact on poverty reduction. During the period 2000-2005 the GDP in real terms increased by 43 %.
The economic growth and external loans allowed for a decrease in the share of the public debt and the publicly guaranteed debt from 79 % of GDP in 2000 to 27 % in 2005. These achievements were due to the promotion of an appropriate monetary and credit policy coupled with a rigid fiscal and budgetary policy, as well as the implementation of tax reforms aimed at improving the tax collection system.
The development of the national economy since 2006 was negatively affected by a number of external factors. These included unfavourable weather conditions, ban on the export of certain goods to the Russian Federation, coupled with limited access to other export markets, increase in prices for energy resources imported from Russia, and a significant rise in prices for energy resources on world markets.
36 http://moldova.md/en/economie/ 37 http://databank.worldbank.org
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Figure 11: Annual GDP growth of Moldova (2006-2015)
2.8.3.2 Energy sector overview
According to the Energy Strategy 2013-2030, the country, given its geographical position, regional transmission network configuration and power generation potential, has always held a strategic advantage in the region as a transit country for power and natural gas38.
Today Moldova is a net importer of energy, as the natural gas -representing the major source of fuel- is almost exclusively purchased from a single source (the Russian Federation) (Figure 12) 39.
38 See [17] page 1 39 See [17] Annex 1, Figure 1.1
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Figure 12: Structure of fuel and energy imports of Moldova (2003-2010)40
An analysis of the electricity use by sector shows that 46.8% of the energy demand is represented by the households (Figure 13).
Figure 13: Electricity consumption per main activities of the Moldovan economy (2003, 2010) 41
40 National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova: National energy balance, 2010, Fig.1.6. 41 See [17] Annex 1, Figure 1.5
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Figure 14: Structure of final energy use in Moldova during 201442
The Energy Balance for 2014 is included in the Annex 2.
The Ministry of Economy vision regarding the Energy sector of the Republic of Moldova43
The vision of the Republic of Moldova on the energy system development is presented in the Energy Strategy of the Republic of Moldova until 2030, approved by Government Decision no. 102 of 05.02.2013. The paper presents specific indicators for the development of the energy sector in the Republic of Moldova in order to provide the necessary basis for economic growth and social well-being. In this document, the Government of the Republic of Moldova identifies the strategic opportunities of the country in a rapidly changing energy context in the geopolitical space that includes the region of Central, Eastern and South Europe, Russia and the Caucasus region.
The Strategy lists the key issues of the country44 that require rapid solutions and the re-dimensioning of objectives in line with the need to achieve optimal balance between: domestic resources (both currently used and the foreseen ones) and the emergency needs of the country, objectives of the European Union and of the Energy Community and the national targets in the context of international commitments of the Republic Moldova under the treaties, agreements and programs (including the neighborhood policy) the Republic of Moldova is party to. The key issues are the 42 http://www.statistica.md/category.php?l=en&idc=128 43 Ministry of Economy. http://www.mec.gov.md/en/content/energy 44 See [17] page.10
5%
19%
38%
13%
15%
10%
Coal Natural gas Oil products
Biofuels and waste Electricity Heat
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following:
1) a negative evolution of energy prices due to the leading position of the MGRES on the electricity market, which, together with a similar position of imports from Ukraine.
2) the intentions to continue to liberalize the market did not materialize over the past 15 years. 3) a strong unbalance in the attraction of financial means, investments/financing are more
often attracted from donors than from the private sector. 4) the incomplete implementation of the acquis and the lack of specific actions to connect to
the ENTSO-E system and to the EU system of main natural gas pipelines.
The overall strategic objectives for 2013 – 2030 and the specific strategic objectives for 2013 - 2020 and 2021 - 2030 are defined and their implementation actions are specified.
The overall strategic objectives for 2013-2030 are to:
1. Ensure Security of energy supply.
2. Create competitive markets and ensure their regional and European integration.
3. Provide environmental sustainability and fight against climate change.
In addition, the Energy Strategy of the Republic of Moldova refers to 2020 as the year of full integration in the EU internal energy market through new interconnection projects. In compliance with this objective, the national legislation should be aligned, to the Energy Community’s acquis and converge with the EU acquis, which will ensure the legal and regulatory compatibility with these markets.
In the context of energy sector development, the National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency for 2013-2015, approved by the Government by Decision no. 833 of 10.11.2011 is implemented.
This plan is intended to ensure the implementation of the Law on Energy Efficiency approved in July 2010. The Plan is underpinned by the National Energy Efficiency Program 2011-2020 that sets out the overall framework with long-term objectives and is to be supported every three years. This Plan comprises priority actions and measures aimed at reaching the intermediate objective of 9% of energy savings by 2016 and the national objective of 20% of energy savings by 2020.
Power system of the Republic of Moldova
After the Transnistrian conflict the power system of the republic was separated in two parts, which decreased its resilience by an important degree. Starting with 1994 the companies of the Nistru's left bank operate under Dnestrenergo umbrella which has adopted a vertical approach in the management of the power system. In the period 1990-1993 the domestic consumption as well as exports has been provided by local generation. Gradually however, imports became more important because of non-operation of the local generating capacities, especially Dnestrovscaia power plant. The generation was provided at that time by the State Heat Power Plant (SHPP) Moldavscaia, CHP1, CHP2, CHP Nord, hydro plants in Costesti and Dubasari as well as 10 sugar factories’ power plants. The installed capacity at the mentioned plants was 3008 MW, including capacity of CTES Moldavscaia - 2520 MW (83%).
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Due to the lack of financial resources, the increase of the installed capacities, as well as modernization and maintenance of the fairly obsolete equipment was not possible at the time. As a result, the available generating capacity in Moldova was not sufficient to cover the domestic demand. Power plants at the right bank were producing only 335 MW, whereas in the winter time there is a need of 1100-1200 MW, and in the summer period of some 500-600 MW. The remainders was imported from Ukraine, CTES Moldavscaia (from the left bank) and from Romania.
Starting with 1993, the situation in the Moldova power system deteriorated mainly of the following reasons:
o Reduction of the consumers’ number by ca 60% and total stop of the power exports, which led to a decrease of the generated power by ca 75%.
o Lack of investments in the sector,
o An inadequate tariff policy promoted by the state, with the real costs of electricity being ignored; in addition, certain categories of consumers were supported by state subventions, while the appropriate costs were not reimbursed to power companies,
o Non-payments of the electricity bills became chronic.
The above resulted to creation of huge debts to the suppliers of electricity and fuel, financial blockage and finally to an unprecedented crisis in the country’s electric power sector.
To amend the situation in 1997 the Government launched a program for restructuring of the energy sector supported by international financial organizations. In 1997 the state company Moldenergo was decentralized and corporatized, being divided into four categories according to their functional principle: power production, transmission and dispatch, power distribution and power related services. Thus, 16 new companies emerged. A Moldova - Russia Joint Stock Company "Moldova Gaz" was created, were 50% of shares belong to the Concern "Gazprom" (Russia). The rest of the companies of the energy sector were as well under reorganization process. In 1997 the National Regulatory Agency has been created, an entity which regulates economically the energy sector of the republic and protects the consumers. In 1999 the real phase of the privatization process of the distribution companies and other important energy entities has started. In 2000 the Spanish group "Union Fenosa" through a privatisation process took control of the power distribution companies SA RE Chisinau, SA RED Sud and SA RED Centru, which constitutes 70% of the total power market of the country.
For the last 10 years the performance of the Moldovan power system became more stable and predictable. In 2003, the Government adopted a decentralization strategy for district heating (with the exception of Chisinau and Balti cities), which is successfully implemented also via Energy II World Bank Project. The economic recovery and financial improvement of the energy-related companies led to the possibility for the state-owned energy enterprises, to reinvest during the last years more than in the past.
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Figure 15: Map of the Moldovan power system
57
2.8.3.3 Electricity demand (consumption & peak – historical data)
Information regarding electricity demand as well as annual (winter and summer) peak load is provided in Figure 16, Figure 17 and Figure 18 respectively45.
Figure 16: electricity demand, 2001-2015 (in TWh)
Figure 17: daily load profile – winter peak 2015 (in MW)
45 presented by SE “Moldelectrica” during the Roundtable discussion entitled "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", at Technical University of Moldova, 18 February 2016.
Energy Consumption
5,7 5,6 5,8 5,5 5,6 5,8 5,85,65,85,75,75,6 5,45,45,8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TWh
Winter Peak (10.12.2015)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 6 11 16 21
MW
58
Figure 18: daily load profile – summer peak 2015 (in MW)
2.8.3.4 Generation
Installed electricity generation capacity in Moldova is currently as follows46:
Cogeneration Power Plants
• CHP-1 (66 MW)
• CHP-2 (240 MW)
• CHP-North (24 MW)
Hydro Power Plants
• HPP Costesti (16 MW)
• HPP Dubasari (48 MW)
Kuchurgan Thermal Power Plant - MGRES (2520 MW)
10 CHPs at Sugar Refineries (98 MW)
Small renewable power plants (4 MW)
Geographically, this capacity is distributed as follows:
Right bank – total installed capacity 398 MW (CHP 330 MW):
• Chisinau-2 CHP – 240 MW47
• Chisinau-1 CHP – 66 MW48 46 Priorities in the development of Power Market of the Republic of Moldova, ANRE, London, May 27th 2014. 47 https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/CET-2, http://termoelectrica.md/en_US/despre/informatii-tehnice/
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 6 11 16 21
MW
Summer Peak (11.06.2015)
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• North CHP – 24 MW49
• Costesti HPP – 16 MW50
• other small PP – 52 MW
Left bank – total installed capacity 2603 MW
• Moldavskaia TPP (MGRES) – 2520 MW51
• Dubasari HPP – 48 MW52
• other small PP – 35 MW
Electricity generation in Moldova during the period 2001-2015 is shown in Figure 1953.
Figure 19: Electricity generation in Moldova, 2001-2015 (TWh)
Table 4 below shows typical winter day peak load demand and the way this is covered (local generation and imports) for the period 2008 – 2013 (in MW)54. The deficit is covered from the MGRES plant and Ukraine.
48 https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/CET-1, http://termoelectrica.md/en_US/despre/informatii-tehnice/ 49 https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/CET-Nord, http://cet-nord.md/ru/station/power 50 https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrala_hidroelectric%C4%83_de_la_St%C3%A2nca_-_Coste%C8%99ti 51 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuchurgan_power_station, http://moldgres.com/o-predpriyatii/equipment 52 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dub%C4%83sari_Dam, http://ges-dubossary.ru/page.php?10 53 presented by SE “Moldelectrica” during the Roundtable discussion entitled "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", at Technical University of Moldova, 18 February 2016. 54 Source: [23]
Energy Production
4,2 4,3
2,9
3,94,1
6,1 6,05,5 5,5
4,2
5,1
5,8
4,54,1
5,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TWh
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Typical Winter Day Peak Load 792 780 805 820 831 833
CHP-1 40 30 30 13.7 25 27
CHP-2 210 196 201 173 202 162
CHP-Nord 20 20 20 20 20 20
HPP Costesti 5 9 9 6 0 0
Deficit, covered by: 517 525 545 607 584 624
– MGRES 517 524 545
420 399 438
– Ukraine 187 185 186
Table 4: Typical Winter Day Peak load demand and generation, 2008 – 2013 (MW)
2.8.3.5 Interconnections and their use
Moldova has geographical boundaries with Ukraine and Romania, and, respectively, the Moldovan power system is interconnected with the power systems of these two countries. The Moldovan power system operates in synchronization with the power system of Ukraine while exchanges with Romania are carried in an “island” mode.
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Regarding the Ukrainian interconnections it is important to note that:
• Import from Ukraine is constrained by the static stability limit;
• Import capacity depends on the power flows through the "Control Interface", which includes four OHL 330 kV55 to Odessa region, the configuration of the transmission network in Moldova and Ukraine, the number of generating units operating at MGRES and HPP Dnestrovsk;
• Given that imports from Ukraine and the generation of MGRES are mutually exclusive, imports from Ukraine decreases the number of units running at MGRES;
• HPP Dnestrovsk is a hydro power plant, used to cover the peak load;
• For a normal topology, the admissible flow through "Control Interface" depends on the number of generating units running at MGRES and HPP Dnestrovsk and varies between 1250 - 1500 MW. For a typical maximum of 900 MW in "Control Interface" to Odessa, the value of import capacity for Moldova ranges between 350-600 MW (see Figure 20).
• For topologies with elements out of service, the interconnection capacity on the direction UA-MD (import to Moldova) can decrease to zero.
In Figure 21 electricity imports from Ukraine for the period 2001 to 2015 are shown56.
Figure 20: Limits on Imports from Ukraine
Regarding the interface between Moldavian and Romanian Power Systems, the following are noted:
• it is weakly developed;
• Import from Romania is limited by “island operation” due to different synchronous zones. Moldova as part of IPS/UPS and Romania as part of ENTSO-E.
55 “CHE Dnestrovsk (UA) – Bălţi (MD)”, “Kotovsk (UA) – MGRES (MD)”, “Adjalik (UA) – Usatovo#1(UA)” and “Adjalik (UA) – Usatovo #2 (UA)” 56 Roundtable "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", 18.02.2016
IPS/UPS
(Odessa) MD
900-
1500
0
- 600
UA
apx.
900
UA
62
In Figure 21 electricity imports from Ukraine and in Figure 22 electricity exchanges with Romania for the period 2001 to 2015 are shown57.
Figure 21: Imports from Ukraine (2001-2015)
Figure 22: Electricity Import/Export activity with Romania (2001-2015)
57 Roundtable "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", 18.02.2016
Import from Ukraine
1,81,6
2,9
2,52,7
0,70,8
1,5
0,70,00,00,00,7
1,8
1,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TWh
To/From Romania (island mode)
0,0
-0,4-0,3
0,02
-0,1
0,0
-0,01
0,0
-0,1
-0,6-0,5
-0,4
-0,8
-0,5
0,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TWh
63
2.8.3.6 Issues and Prospects
From the previous analysis, as main issues concerning the Moldovan power system the following are identified:
• The highest percentage of electricity demand is covered by the MGRES plant;
• Imports from Romania and Ukraine have been close to zero during the last two years;
• Significant dependence of the power sector on imports ( electricity and natural gas as fuel);
• It remains unclear the process of how and when RES (wind parks) will be integrated into the Moldovan power system
• It remains to be finalized (still there are on-going studies by international organizations) the option of enhancing and strengthening the interconnection of Moldovan and Romanian power systems
The Energy Strategy until 203058 establishes the following objectives:
• Ensure a 10% annual share of electricity produced from renewable sources by 202059.
• Extend the existing installed capacity by 800MW by 2020. This will be done by decommissioning the existing CHPs with a total installed capacity of 250MW (Chisinau CHP-1, CHP-2) and building new power plants, with a total capacity of 1,050MW60;
• 400 MW out of the above 1,050 MW shall be based on electricity generation from renewable sources (mainly wind parks). Given the commitment to produce 10% of the total electricity consumed in 2020, and considering a capacity factor of 0.25, the minimum necessary RES-E capacity is about 250 MW61.
Currently, SE “Moldelectrica” does not develop long term demand forecasts. In this regard, the Energy Strategy would have to be used as a reference for this purpose. Alternative scenarios should be developed by Moldelectrica, to cover the plausible development of demand for electricity to be faced by the Moldovan power system
In addition, because of the uncertainty involved in development of RES plants (assuming they will not be developed centrally by the state), scenarios covering possible developments over space and time have to be considered also in this case (see Figure 24 for possible locations) .
The scenarios regarding development of interconnections (see Figure 23, dashed lines) need to take into account the development plans from Romania and Ukraine.
58 http://lex.justice.md/md/346670/ 59 See [16] page 21 60 See [16] page 31 61 See [16] page 31
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Figure 23: Planned interconnections according to the Moldovan Energy Strategy 2020
It should be noted that the above illustration of possible interconnection scenarios derives from the Energy Strategy of the Republic of Moldova for 2020. Since then a newer version of the Moldovan Energy Strategy has been developed and adopted by the Ministry of Economy. The two versions provide a varied solution for the asynchronous interconnection interface between Moldova and Romania. Since the decision on the final configuration of the asynchronous interconnection interface between Moldova and Romania should be a product of techno-economic analysis (i.e. feasibility study) and perhaps even a consultation process given its importance for the overall energy system of Moldova it would be advisable that - as long as this decision is not considered firm - a detailed description of the prevailing scenarios to be included in the designated section of the future TYNDP.
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Figure 24 : Areas of interest for the connection of renewable sources of energy
Main considerations for developing the transmission network
From discussions with Moldelectrica, the following has been noted:
• In order to increase reliability and to make possible the evacuation of power generated from renewable sources, it is necessary to develop the transmission networks in the South region of the Moldovan system.
• Network development should be oriented towards establishing a loop configuration of the transmission network at high voltage (330/400 kV), in order to increase the level of reliability and security.
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Concerning interconnections with the two neighboring countries, the following are noted:
A. Synchronous interconnection of power systems of Ukraine and Moldova with ENTSO-E62
• The project runs from 2006 and it is the least expensive solution for Moldova.
• At this stage, the list of measures for Moldova will contain the following minimum conditions:
- Building the OHL 400 kV “Bălți (MD) – Suceava (RO)”
- Reconstruction of primary regulation systems on power plants and establishment of, secondary and tertiary control
- Amending the legislation according to EU Directives, in particular the rules regarding balancing and system services.
B. Asynchronous interconnection through Back-to-Back stations63
• Both the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) have considered interconnection investments and proceeded with feasibility studies in order to evaluate the best options for the development of an asynchronous interconnection interface between Moldova and Romania.
• There are three main axes over which this asynchronous interconnection interface between Moldova and Romania may be deployed:
- In the South-West where a B2B station on the existing OHL 400 kV “Vulcanesti (MD) – Isaccea (RO)” may be added along with the construction of a new connection between “Vulcăneşti – Chisinau”.
- In the Central-West where a new interconnection between “Strașeni (MD) – Iași (RO)” may be added along with the construction of a B2B station.
- In the North-West where a new interconnection between “Balti (MD) – Suceava (RO)” may be added along with the construction of a B2B station. The transmission line of this project is common to the plan of synchronous interconnection with the Continental Europe ENTSO-E and has already been
62 Roundtable "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", 18.02.2016 63 Roundtable "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", 18.02.2016
Given the examples of the recently completed synchronous operation of the Continental Europe ENTSO-E with Turkey as well as the ongoing process for the
respective synchronous operation of the Baltic region, it appears that such a development for the systems of Ukraine and Moldova may be anticipated to be completed after several years of investments, system performance tests, impact
analysis on the Continental Europe ENTSO-E system, etc.
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approved by the Energy Community as a PECI (Project of Energy Community Interest) in the 2013 PECI list.
• It is understood that the discussion on the optimal setup for the asynchronous interconnection interface between Moldova and Romania is still on-going between the Government of the Republic of Moldova, the Energy Community Secretariat (Moldova may have additional interconnection PECI(s) in the 2016 expected by the end of the year, Moldelectrica, and the IFI and donors’ community. It is certain however that the decisions on this domain will greatly affect the drivers over which the Moldovan TYNDP needs to be developed.
2.8.4 Analysis of demand
According to the Energy Strategy for 2030 the electricity demand in Moldova is expected to develop as follows64:
Figure 25: Forecast of electricity demand in Moldova by basic sectors until 2030 (GWh)
64 National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova, Energy Balance of the Republic of Moldova. Collection of statistical data, 2010.
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Figure 26: Forecast of electricity demand in Moldova by basic sectors until 2030 without industrial sector (GWh)
Yearly electricity demand forecasts are also provided in the World Bank study ([23]) as shown in the table below.
Table 5: electricity demand forecast – projections by the World Bank (2013-2033)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 2030 2033
GDP
(bill. USD) 12.27 12.67 13.08 13.51 13.95 14.41 14.88 15.36 15.86 18.03 21.17 23.31
Electricity Demand
(GWh)
4,072 4,170 4,248 4,328 4,410 4,496 4,584 4,675 4,769 5,177 5,766 6,168
Peak Load (MW)
833 849 862 873 886 898 911 925 939 999 1,085 1,143
Furthermore, concerning electricity and peak load demand, based on statistical data and using a linear extrapolation, the trend for the next 10 year period would look as follows:
Figure 27: Demand forecast65 & stress days in the Moldovan power system
65 Roundtable "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", 18.02.2016
Consumption forecast
y = 0.0197
x - 33.874
5
5,2
5,4
5,6
5,8
6
6,2
6,4
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
2026
TWh
69
Winter Peak
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
MW
Summer Peak
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
MW
Low load day
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
MW
70
The above trends (based on extrapolation) assume a continuous growth of the demand for electricity, reflecting a similar trend in the economy. Given the evolution of demand during the last 10 years (see Figure 16) it is recommended to use the ‘scenario’ approach (see Section 2.8.6). In developing such scenarios the presented trends might be used as a basis for the scenarios and sensitivity analysis.
In addition, when developing such electricity demand and peak load forecasts, one should show how assumptions concerning the evolvement of parameters which affect demand for electricity affect the forecasts. Such parameters might be considered the following:
• national policies for specific sectors of the economy, e.g. industry • trend of the GDP and electricity demand (e.g. last 3-5 years) • recent trend of the peak (e.g. last 3 years) • correlation of peak demand with ambient temperature (e.g. through the use of ‘load-
temperature’ models) • options for Demand Side management • penetration of new technologies in heating and cooling, etc. • evolution of the load factor
Finally, forecasts should be evaluated on a regular basis, ideally whenever a new forecast is produced. Experience from previous forecasts should be used when developing the new ones. Thus, it might be useful to analyse the forecasts of the 2020 Strategy (see Table 6) and the assumptions which lead to them.
2007 2010 2015 2020
1130 1280 1375 1500
Table 6: peak load forecasts according to the Moldovan Energy Strategy 2020 (in MW)
In Annex 3 are provided the full set of forecasts of the Moldovan Energy Strategy 2020 for the electricity sector.
2.8.5 Drivers
Based on the results of the previous sections, the main drivers for the TYNDP have to be identified. As main drivers the following may be considered:
The interconnection with neighboring countries (e.g. BtB with Romania)
The installation of RES plants (mainly wind) according to the National Energy Strategy
The issue of interconnection with Romania is currently under study. In addition, there is already strong interest for installation of RES plants (wind parks) in the order of 800 MW while in the National Action Plan there is foreseen installation of 400 MW RES by year 2020. Thus, as there is no certainty how the above factors will evolve, it is recommended to use a scenario approach for both
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of these parameters (see next Section 2.8.6).
Electricity demand is also considered among the drivers for transmission expansion planning. Given the previous analysis (Section 2.8.4), this parameter should be analysed through use of scenarios (see next Section 2.8.6).
Additional drivers may be considered such as those dealing with specific problems of the network, e.g. reliability and quality of supply issues, rehabilitation of existing parts of the network, etc.
2.8.6 Scenarios
2.8.6.1 The ‘base’ approach
As the Transmission Plan has to anticipate future development of the power system (in terms of demand and generation necessary to cover demand), and given the uncertainties involved in predicting the future, the method of developing and analyzing alternative scenarios is often used in the case of transmission planning. Scenarios allow structured thinking on the future based on the evolution of aspects such as driving forces, trends, themes, events and cause-effect logics. With the scenario analysis approach the objective is not prediction, but to construct and articulate several different futures and the paths to them.
There is no any pure scientific way on how to develop scenarios. However, given the fact that scenarios are used in order to treat uncertainty, a reasonable way to proceed would be as follows:
i. for the given situation (in this case the evolvement of the Moldovan power system) identify the main parameters which (a) are of crucial importance and (b) are rather uncertain to pre-dict at the current stage of analysis;
ii. Identify possible ‘values’ that these parameters may take by the year of the study horizon (i.e. year n+10);
iii. create scenarios with varying assumptions about the evolvement of these parameters;
In view of the above, for the scenario building process, the following parameters could be used as the main parameters of the Moldovan power system:
• yearly energy and peak power demand • energy available to / from interconnectors • available generation capacity (this incorporates expectations from installing RES in the
country)
An example table of scenarios involving the above parameters for the planning horizon looks as follows:
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Table 7: Example scenarios for the purposes of power system planning
Parameter Scenario 1:
‘Current trend’
Scenario 2:
‘ Reference’
Scenario 3:
‘High Growth’
Demand MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH
Interconnection LOW HIGH HIGH
RES LOW MEDIUM HIGH
For the specific case of Moldova, and given the current uncertainty re. development of interconnectors, the respective scenarios might involve two parameters:
• the configuration (i.e. which interconnections will be finally built), a parameter which affects also the necessary enhancement of the internal transmission network of Moldova
• the level of electricity exchange between the countries of the region (Romania, Moldova, Ukraine) in coordination with generation from specific plants (e.g. import from UA vs MGRES vs import from RO).
In addition, for the detailed power system studies, yearly forecasts are necessary for energy and peak load demand. The respective table would look as follows:
Table 8: Example scenarios of load demand for the purposes of power system planning
Year
Scenario 1:
LOW Demand
Scenario 2:
MEDIUM Demand
Scenario 3:
HIGH Demand
Demand (GWh)
Peak Load (MW)
Demand (GWh)
Peak Load (MW)
Demand (GWh)
Peak Load (MW)
2018 2019
…. ….
2026 2027
Initially, a possible approach would be that scenarios representing the continuation of the ‘current trend’ as well as a best guess ‘best guess’ (often called ‘baseline’ or ‘reference’ scenario) is built (see
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Table 7). Then, alternative scenarios assuming that conditions which may drive demand for electricity at higher (e.g. assuming intense growth of the economy or electrification of the transport sector) or lower levels (e.g. assuming energy conservation policies) could be built.
Ideally, as explained in the next Section, such scenarios should be validated by an integrated model, at least at national level. Depending on their scope, such models may just model the electricity sector (‘engineering’ models, in which demand is treated as exogenous or independent variable) or few sectors of the economy (e.g. energy and transport sectors - partial equilibrium) or the whole economy (general equilibrium).
Moldelectrica should try to inform decision-makers, analysts and the public, of any caveats attached to the forecasts, their significance, as well as how the resultant uncertainty is incorporated effectively into their frame of reference.
As already stated, an ex-post evaluation of forecast accuracy should be undertaken by Moldelectrica on a regular basis (e.g. every 2 years).
2.8.6.2 The ‘comprehensive’ approach
In order to ensure internal consistency between the values of the above parameters, a higher level analysis may be conducted. Such analysis involves -for each high level scenario- the determination of values for the main parameters affecting the evolution as well as the operation of the power system. The following parameters are usually considered for this purpose:
• fuel prices (international & domestic)
• cost and efficiency of alternative power generation technologies
• electricity and energy sector policies (national, EU)
• degree of development of the economy (national, regional)
• interconnectivity with and evolution of other power systems in the region
It is of crucial importance to distinguish the parameters (or groups of parameters) for which there is enough evidence that they vary independently of each other. For example, it is generally accepted that low prices of a product lead to higher consumption (demand) of the product, a result mainly stemming directly from the well-known theory of supply and demand in micro-economics. However, such conventional approach should be exercised with due care in the case of the energy products, given that they are not a usual, conventional product but they affect to a significant degree the whole economy. This is easily understood by the fact that during economic downturns it is not uncommon to have the international fuel prices following a similar (decreasing) trend, given that demand for fuel is slowing.
Scenarios are not conceived as one at a time. One should develop a range of two or three possible futures, allowing addressing an array of possibilities and analysing the outcomes for each of them. At the same time, more than four scenarios tend to be too complex: it is not easy to keep track of their differences and implications.
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The use of the narratives to structure thinking on the alternative development pathways not only makes scenarios more believable but can ensure that they do not become an arbitrary numerical combination of quantitative variables and can make assumptions more explicit. In parallel, the quantitative scenarios are complimentary to the qualitative narratives. They are used to check consistency and to provide relevant numerical information,
Again, such scenarios should be integrated and analysed within models of the energy sector or the whole economy of the country. Normally, the Ministry for Energy or the Ministry for National Economy would produce model-based66 quantitative analyses of the energy & economy sectors of Moldova for the purposes of policy making.
Based on the above, a table of plausible scenarios incorporating potential developments can be constructed as follows:
Table 9: Outline of high-level scenarios (example)
HIGH-LEVEL SCENARIO no.
INTERNATIONAL
FUEL PRICES
PROGRESS OF RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES
(COST / EFFICIENCY)
NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
1 HIGH HIGH (low cost / high efficiency)
HIGH HIGH ECON. GROWTH
2 MEDIUM HIGH (low cost / high efficiency)
MEDIUM MEDIUM ECON. GROWTH
3 LOW MEDIUM (small positive change in cost and efficiency)
MEDIUM MEDIUM ECON. GROWTH
In order for the analysis to be tractable, a limited number of scenarios should be finally analysed. This may be achieved through a ‘filtering’ process of the initial total number of scenarios developed.
The scenarios analysed in the ENTSO-E TYNDP are based on four ‘Visions’, which represent four ‘high-level’ scenarios as described above67. An interesting application of scenario filtering has been performed within the EU funded E-Highways2050 project, in which the roadmap to the European
66 Models used in such analyses include the IEA/Markal-Times model, the PRIMES model, etc. 67 See ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014
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power system for year 2050 is analysed by ENTSO E and several EU TSOs68.
The output of the above analysis includes installed generation capacity for each technology type, electricity demand served for each end-use category as well as the equilibrium energy prices per end-product (e.g. wholesale electricity prices).
2.8.7 Analysis of the adequacy of electricity supply
The purpose is, for each scenario of the above in Table 7 and Table 8, to determine the configuration of the generation system at the study year (n+10) which satisfies demand at the appropriate reliability level. The approach may be probabilistic, in which case the criteria of LOLP or LOLE are used, or deterministic, in which case the deterministic criterion of the maximum generating unit or the maximum possible import from interconnection is used. The output (adequate generation system) is then used for transmission planning. The methodology (yearly simulation) ignores the transmission system or uses DC approximation for the transmission system.
A common approach for this analysis is to first determine the maintenance schedule for the available generation. Then any contribution from intermittent, non-dispatchable RES is subtracted from assumed hourly load demand, and the remaining load has then to be served by the conventional dispatch able units.
For the probabilistic approach, the criterion used is: LOLP<2.4 - 3 days/10yrs.
Modelling Details:
• Generation: use any available plans for conventional / dispatch able generating units; further input includes Forced Outage Rates (FOR), fuel type, heat rate curve, fuel cost, decommis-sioning plans, etc.
• Use hourly load curves, then convert to weekly load duration curves
• For RES (wind, pv): hourly generation patterns, then subtract from load demand
• Modelling of interconnections: as generators with FOR or by assuming patterns of IMPORTS or EXPORTS, then subtract from load demand.
• CHPs: assume ‘must’ run, then subtract from load demand
The output of the simulation is the energy produced from each generating unit per week & year, and the LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) in MWH/week and per year. If LOLE in some scenario is below acceptable level, then additional generation should be added so as to bring LOLE within the acceptable limits.
Further to the above analysis, in case of high penetration of intermittent RES (wind or solar PV plants) a downward adequacy analysis for the low load hours should be performed, so that to check whether the system is able to accommodate all RES generation or curtailments would be necessary.
68 See http://www.e-highway2050.eu/uploads/media/The_selection_of_energy_scenarios_for_e-Highway2050.pdf
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2.8.8 Dispatch simulation
This analysis provides, for each demand scenario of Table 7 and Table 8, the loading of generation units during specific hours in which the power system is expected to undergo stress conditions, so that the performance of the transmission network under such conditions can be analysed at a next step. This involves hourly simulation of the operation of the power system for the 8760 hours or during selected hours (e.g. hours of peak demand) during the target year, (i.e. the last year of the 10-years planning horizon).
For each scenario from the ones shown in Table 7 and Table 8 (involving generation, load, import export from/to interconnections, etc.), for selected ‘stress’ days of the study year, the unit commitment problem is solved simulating the optimal (minimum operating cost) of the generation system (hourly step). The algorithms used take into account all constraints of the unit commitment problem (units start-up / shut-down times, ramping up/down capabilities, etc.). Load is modelled with hourly values, based on historic trends.
The output (hourly loading level of each generating unit) is to be used for the network studies. Generation from RES plants is modelled based on historical data or information re. the wind regime of the anticipated locations of the RES plants.
Example ‘stress’ days:
• Summer peak,
• Winter peak
• Some low load day of the year
The unit commitment should run for each stress day or use a window of +/- 1 day for each stress day.
Model/tool used: there exist several commercial tools used for this purpose (examples of such tools include the PLEXOS software package69, the LCG models70, the Argonne National Laboratory models71, etc.).
Table 10: “Stress” days for the Moldovan Power System72
Year Winter Peak Summer Peak Low Load Day Date & Time P, MW Date & Time P, MW Date & Time P, MW
2003 11.01.03 18:00 1077 25.08.03 21:00 759 04.08.03 06:00 280 2004 17.12.04 19:00 1066 31.08.04 21:00 749 19.06.04 09:00 239 2005 11.02.05 19:00 1076 31.08.05 21:00 796 02.05.05 05:00 333 2006 24.01.06 21:00 1085 01.08.06 22:00 782 25.06.06 05:00 316 2007 14.12.07 19:00 1157 11.08.07 22:00 885 05.07.07 06:00 344
69 http://energyexemplar.com/software/plexos-desktop-edition/ 70 http://www.energyonline.com/products/uplane.aspx 71 http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/project/commercial-building-agent-based-model 72 Roundtable "Issues on development of energy cooperation between Moldova and Romania", 18.02.2016
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2008 10.11.08 09:00 1158 15.08.08 12:00 858 14.09.08 15:00 334 2009 16.12.09 18:00 1146 03.08.09 22:00 820 14.06.09 05:00 299 2010 15.02.10 14:00 1189 12.08.10 18:00 819 06.09.10 05:00 327 2011 05.01.11 18:00 1082 15.07.11 08:00 910 18.05.11 03:00 269 2012 13.11.12 13:00 1230 30.07.12 13:00 873 06.05.12 06:00 275 2013 11.12.13 18:00 1115 07.08.13 22:00 849 02.06.13 06:00 316 2014 03.12.14 18:00 1140 14.07.14 18:00 874 01.06.14 06:00 327 2015 26.01.15 19:00 1028 24.07.15 14:00 878 01.03.15 03:00 337
2.8.9 Development of network models
The task of development of network models involves the design, for each scenario from the ones shown in Table 7 and Table 8, of the transmission network for the target year based on the analysis performed in the previous Steps. The ‘target’ year is supposed to be the study year (e.g. year +10 in case of the TYNDP) in which all known and reasonably assumed prospective generation & transmission investments have been embodied. For each scenario, the target network should approximate the network of minimum cost which satisfies the requirements for transmission service at specified reliability (demand coverage, connection of generators, interconnection targets, N-1, etc.).
Given the scenarios developed in the previous sections, the following approach is proposed for development of network models for the target year (n+10):
i. produce a first version of the network for year n+10 by including in the existing (year n) net-work all currently foreseen projects to be implemented by year n+10 (e.g. the ones already included in the approved 5-year investment plan);
ii. then, for each scenario, identify all necessary projects which are further required in order to meet the needs and reliability criteria on the basis of the assumptions concerning demand and peak load of each scenario.
2.8.10 Network analysis
For the purpose of network analysis, each scenario is broken down into planning cases, each of them accounting for a specific combination of values of the scenario variables, as shown in the below figure:
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Figure 28: scenarios and planning cases for the purposes of network analysis
An example of planning cases analysed by GSE for the Georgian TYNDP is depicted in Figure 29.
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Figure 29: planning cases and technical analysis performed within the Georgian TYNDP
The process of transmission planning involves performing a series of network studies. The type of studies to be performed depends on the state of the system as well as the type on the planned projects. As it is not the purpose of the present document to describe the power system related studies, these are referenced here below:
• Steady state (Load flow) analysis
• Stability Studies
• Reactive Power/VAR Flow Studies
• Short circuit analysis
• Voltage Drop Analysis
• Reliability/Contingency analysis
• Transfer capability analysis
• Fault Analyses
• Losses Evaluation
• Double and Severe Contingency Studies
Examples of Double and Severe Contingencies (to analyse cascading outages) include:
Double contingencies:
• Delayed clearing of a single-phase fault on the system due to failure of a breaker to open or relaying to operate.
• Common Tower Contingencies with a single phase fault.
• Loss of a single element followed by system adjustments and then followed by a three phase fault resulting in the loss of another element.
Extreme contingencies:
• Loss of all circuits on a common right-of-way
• Loss of a substation (one voltage level plus transformers)
• Loss of all generation at a station
• Delayed clearing of a three-phase fault on the system due to failure of a breaker to open or relaying to operate.
In addition, the capacity of the transmission network to accommodate intermittent RES plants should be analyzed; in case of several RES generators apply for connection (‘intermittency’ study). The TYNDP should provide to prospective users (in this case potential generators from ‘non-
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dispatchable’ / intermittent RES, mainly wind and solar photovoltaic plants) the capacity of the network to accommodate injections from RES plants at specific locations. An estimate of the costs involved should be also provided where feasible.
2.8.11 CBA for transmission projects
The CBA for transmission projects is carried out by calculating the expected benefits of the project and comparing them with the related costs. Following the CBA methodology used by ENTSO-E, the following indicators for benefits accruing to the power system are considered in the CBA process:
- Security of Supply / reliability (B1)
-Socio-economic welfare (or total cost) (B2)
-transmission losses (however, losses my increase due to a transmission project, e.g. an interconnector; it is understood that the total benefits will cancel this negative effect); (B3)
-emissions of CO2 (B4)
-system resiliency (project’s contribution to system security under extreme / critical conditions) (B5)
-flexibility (i.e. project’s usefulness under more than one scenario) (B6)
Benefits such as the above are calculated through market and network studies (see Section 2.4.2.5 for details).
In order to calculate the impact of a project (i.e. to calculate the benefits) 2 analyses are performed:
– WITH the project under assessment being included in the transmission system
– WITHOUT the project under assessment being included in the transmission system
The time horizon of the analysis, although the lifetime of transmission projects may easily exceed 50 years, should not exceed 20 - 25 yrs, as uncertainty beyond this horizon reduces the value of the analysis. To better reflect the impact of the project, the CBA should be carried out for at least two years of the considered study period of 20-25 years. For example, one might perform CBA for the 10th and the 20th year of the time horizon73.
For the purposes of the CBA, the following cost categories are usually considered:
• Overnight (investment) costs – includes financing costs
• Environmental costs
• Dismantling costs
• O&M costs
73 ENTSO-E in the EU-wide TYNDP 2014 analysed projects using CBA only for year 2030; for the TYNDP 2016 projects will be analysed also for year 2020.
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Discount rate: use a rather low (‘social’) discount rate, e.g. 4% (as ACER and ENTSO-E suggest)
As salvage value, given the long lifetime period (and the associated uncertainty) one may consider zero.
The issue of uncertainty is covered through the scenario already developed for the power system under consideration.
Concerning the calculation of Benefits, the following are noted:
• B1: SoS (in MWh / yr)
– ENS (Energy Not Supplied, from network studies)
– LOLE (from Market studies)
– Need Value of Lost Load (VOLL, in Euro/MWH) in order to monetize the benefits accruing from improvement in SOS.
– SoS is ‘difficult’ to calculate using the present CBA methodology which assumes all the future investments in the transmission network during the are in place for the study year74.
• B2: SEW – Socioeconomic welfare (in euro/yr.)
– This indicator is used for assessment of cross-border interconnector projects (not much sense for internal projects unless they resolve internal congestion problems)
– With market studies it is possible to calculate:
• The economic benefit from reduced generation cost due to the project, or
• the sum: consumer surplus + producer surplus + congestion rent
• B3: Losses (in MWh/yr.)
– Calculated with network studies
– monetization possible, e.g. by average cost of KWh (or average wholesale market price of kWh)
• B4: CO2 emissions (in Ktn / yr.)
– monetization is possible, e.g. using average cost of CO2 (in CO2 markets / exchanges)
• B5: Resilience (project’s contribution to system security under extreme / critical conditions)
– Only qualitative assessment is feasible (e.g. evaluating the impact using a scale from 1 to 3).
• B6: Flexibility (i.e. project’s usefulness under more than one scenario)
– Only qualitative assessment is feasible (e.g. evaluating the impact using a scale from 1 to 3).
74 see also relevant remark in the ENTSO-E EU-wide TYNDP 2014, p. 77.
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Following the CBA, the Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) of a candidate project is calculated according to the formula:
ENPV = Σ (discounted) Benefits – Σ (discounted) Costs
If ENPV is greater than 0, the project should be implemented. In case of competing projects, the project with the higher ENPV should be chosen for implementation.
2.8.12 Available capacity for non-dispatchable RES plants
The TYNDP should provide to prospective users (in this case potential generators from intermittent RES) the capacity of the network to accommodate injections from such RES plants at specific locations. An estimate of the costs involved should be also provided where feasible. This task involves network studies. The analysis should be performed assuming weather patterns for RES generation and scenarios for installed RES capacities. Points in time with minimum and maximum system load should be analysed.
In addition, the overall limit of the Moldovan power system to accommodate such RES plants (e.g. wind and solar PV plants) should be analysed and used as a guide (or system-level constraint) in policy decisions concerning electricity from RES plants.
2.8.13 Summary of necessary projects
The above process provides, for each scenario, a set of necessary projects. These projects have emerged as necessary in order to cover needs to connect and / or serve loads and generators at the required level of reliability or to interconnect with neighbouring systems. A time plan of such projects depends on a more detailed assessment of the potential evolution of the respective parameters of the power system (progress of construction of new plants, evolution of demand, etc.).
Projects which are necessary in all scenarios should be given priority for approval / construction (e.g. be included in the 3-5 year investment plan of the TSO).
2.8.14 Additional projects
Further to the above described ‘necessary’ projects, the TSO should examine and propose investment which increases the economic efficiency of the transmission system. In this category may be considered projects which reduce transmission losses. A CBA should always accompany such proposals.
2.8.15 Summary results
The TYNDP should include summary tables with all transmission projects identified in the previous steps, their main phases and timeline for implementation, as well as a cost estimate for each project. Cost estimates should be broken down to main categories of equipment and works required. Standard unit costs should be used where possible, to avoid specific calculations for costing of each project.
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2.8.16 Tools used by ENTSO-E TSOs for market and network studies
CSE Region
Tools Used for Market Studies
The market studies in CSE region of ENTSO-E are performed using the PROSIM tool which is a software application for the simulation of generation systems using either deterministic or probabilistic approach. The tool is in-house software developed by the Greek TSO. PROSIM takes into account the transmission system and transmission constraints using a DC load flow module. Annual market simulations are performed on an hourly basis, leading to a least-cost economical dispatch of all available generation. Based on the hourly market simulation results, DC power flows are performed (using the full network model of the region), thus providing the loading duration curves of critical network elements. The probabilistic methodology applied, allows to take into account the forced outage rates of units as well as to determine the reliability of the system in terms of Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Unserved Energy (EUE). Network constraints are taken into account, in terms of thermal ratings of the interconnectors and GTC values computed over specific boundaries. In cases that during the optimal dispatching process, a grid constraint violation appears, a linear optimisation problem is solved in order to find the minimum cost deviation from the initial “optimal generation scheme that results in power flows respecting the grid constraints (for more details see the ENTSO-E Regional Investment Plan – Continental South East 2014, [3]).
Tools Used for Network Studies
Software tools used by TSOs in CSE region for network studies are presented in following table. In the ENTSO-E Regional Investment Plan – Continental South East 2014 it is mentioned that ‘PSS/E load flow module was used for assessment of network related benefit indicators. Additionally, for assessment of Grid Transfer Capability, module “PSS/E Must” was used since it employs very fast incremental linear model with power transfer distribution factors around non-linear AC starting flows and results for each project can be produced very quickly.’
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Table 11: Software tools used by TSOs in the ENTSO-E CSE region for network studies within the Regional TYNDP process
CSW Region
Tools Used for Market Studies
Two simulation programs have been used in the CSW region for the market studies, ANTARES and UPLAN.
UPLAN is commercial SCUC (Security Constrained Unit Commitment) software used to calculate a long-term generation schedule. UPLAN has been developed by LCG Consulting during the last three decades focused on the USA utilities. It has been updated recently; specifically the hydro modelling has been adapted to the European TSOs needs on the ENTSO-E studies. It calculates the minimum-cost hourly generation schedule of all power plants in a system on a chronological simulation, in order to satisfy the demand while respecting all operational constraints of an interconnected sys-tem.
It allows modelling thermal generation, hydro generation, energy storages and non-manageable generation simulated as a profile input. In addition, it allows modelling the internal network of a country detailing all branches and transformers at different voltage levels. The approach of the model allows running a DC load flow with a list of specified hourly contingencies and assures a yearly output fulfilling all the network restrictions imposed under normal conditions and contingency situa-tions (N, N-1 and N-X). Therefore, UPLAN’s holistic approach ensures that a complete, optimal, least-cost solution is provided without compromise or relying on heuristics.
The main market results of the model are the generation mix for each country (including RES), the variable generation costs for the system, the CO2 emissions and the use of interconnection capaci-ties. Regarding the network utility, the tool reports the congested internal lines and tie-lines and the event that produces that congestion.
Limits of the model:
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- The underlying assumption hour by hour, is that of a perfectly competitive market (which implies, among other assumptions, that information is not only complete but also perfect).
- DC load flow instead of a complete AC load flow.
UPLAN contains a number of features and modules within the software suite for performing specific tasks such as the optimized Maintenance Scheduler; the PowerStack for distributed processing; the Volatility Model for introducing stochastic variables; the Application Programming Interface for au-tomating tasks; and PSS/E import and export to integrate UPLAN with other engineering models.
ANTARES (A New Tool for generation Adequacy Reporting of Electric Systems) is a sequential Monte-Carlo multi-area adequacy and market simulator. The rationale behind adequacy or market analysis with a Monte-Carlo sequential simulator is the following: situations are the outcome of random events whose possible combinations form a set of scenarios so large that their comprehensive examination is very complex. The basis of the model is an optimizer connected in output of random simulators.
Each country is represented by one node and cross-border exchanges in both directions are limited by the corresponding transfer capacity between the countries.
Random simulators provide Monte-Carlo years, each of them being described by 8760 hourly climat-ic conditions (temperature, wind, solar, hydro); planned /unplanned outages of units are also repre-sented. For each of the Monte-Carlo year, the optimiser provides a unit commitment that minimises the variable generation cost for the whole system, taking into account the dynamic constraints of the units. Hydro generation can be optimized within each week while respecting the weekly energy.
The results of the model are the use of the generation mix in each country (including RES), the varia-ble generation costs for the system, the CO2 emissions and the use of interconnection capacities.
Limitations of the model:
• The underlying assumption (in the hour by hour simulation), is that of a perfectly competitive market (which implies, among other assumptions, that information is not only complete but also perfect).
• Each country is represented by one node, therefore internal congestion is ignored.
• Physical flows are not represented.
Tools Used for Network Studies
• CONVERGENCE model, developed by RTE, used for load flow (AC) analysis;
• PSS/E model, commercial model, used for load flow (AC) analysis;
• UPLAN model, commercial model, which integrates market and load flow (DC) simulations for internal network, including detailed model of the three countries in the region.
CCE Region
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Tools Used for Market Studies
CCE has used the software PowrSym4 for the market simulations. PowrSym4 is a software tool li-censed by OSA (Operation Simulation Associates, Inc., USA). This simulation tool optimizes genera-tion costs based on chronological simulation, implicitly modelling energy storages. Unavailability and outages of generation capacity are solved by Monte Carlo simulation. Forced generation as wind or solar can be simulated by fix inputs (creation of time series in advance).
Currently in this software tool the interpretation of the used net transfer capacity doesn’t take into consideration the exact impedances of the system.
Tools Used for Network Studies
For network studies different software tools were used across regional group depending on the concrete TSO and its experience (PSLF, PSS-E, Integral, ODMS and NEPLAN). Each of these software tools used different formats of the models. The mostly used was PSSE (.raw, .sav) but “CIM” format was used as well. Each of them is purely network calculation tool. The list of software tools is given below.
Table 12: Tools used for network studies in the CCE region
NORTH SEA Region
Tools Used for Market Studies
The North Sea Regional Group used four market simulation tools in parallel: Antares, BID, PowrSym4 and PROMOD. Each of the tools has its own particular strengths, which provide an opportunity to challenge the single models results, which were based on the same input data, towards each other and thus provide greater confidence in the results.
The results of these four simulation tools were compared in depth, enabling the North Sea Regional Group to verify the results and to increase the quality of the market analysis.
The pan-European meteorological database was also used to assess renewable energy integration. For this task, a stochastic method based on wind, sun and temperature probability was used.
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It should be noted that all tools assume a perfect energy-only market; some of the internal congestions are simplified. Thus the models deliver the energy flows triggered by the market price differences.
Tools Used for Network Studies
A number of different network analysis tools, namely PSS/E, Powerfactory, Convergence, PSA Integral, are used for network studies.
2.9 Key Findings
So far the transmission planning functions of Moldelectrica have been limited to immediate and case-by-case calculations for the connection for new users and rehabilitation of the network. The strategic long term transmission planning has been part of the national energy strategy prepared by the Ministry of Economy. While the strategic directions for the whole energy system development in the country should remain with the Ministry of Economy, the new draft electricity law transposing the 3rd Energy Package to the Moldovan legislation provides for specific transmission planning func-tions of the TSO and also for the development of a Ten Year Network Development Plan and a three-year investment plan.
Moldoelectrica is ready to respond to these responsibilities but as it appears from the results of this analysis it is in need of methodological support, modeling capabilities and human resources that would undertake this recurring task. The present assignment has acted on the former with due re-gard to bringing some extra information on the requirements and directions that Moldelectrica need to consider while taking the next steps towards the development of the TYNDP. In this context the INOGATE team has developed a draft Code of Practice for Transmission Planning accompanied by Transmission Planning Standards. This report, envisages playing the role of a “how-to” manual which should guide Moldelectrica in taking the appropriate sequence of steps for the development of their first TYNDP. For this purpose the content of this report was based on extensive exchanges between the INOGATE experts’ team and Moldelectrica team as well as representatives of ANRE, the EU Dele-gation to the Republic of Moldova and the local representatives of the World Bank and EBRD. Fur-thermore, based on the findings during the discussions in both missions of the INOGATE team to the country it was decided that this report would discuss both the EU and regional situation and should also take into account the national specificities of the Moldovan power system. Last but not least, an intra-INOGATE TSO twinning effort has been encompassed in this particular activity. The Georgian TSO having just recently completed their TYNDP hosted the Moldelectrica team in a one-day work-shop in Tbilisi.
2.10 Ownership and Benefits of the Activity
The main benefits of the activity for the Beneficiary may be accounted to include:
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1. A tailor-made guidance for the development of the first Moldovan TYNDP including a review of the features of the ENTSO-E, neighbouring, European and the Georgian TYNDP as well as the main steps along the process and some proposals on the modelling requirements;
2. A worked-out Code of Practice for Transmission Planning discussed to a large extent with ANRE and accompanied with a set of Transmission Planning Criteria allowing for a gradual fulfilment of the N-1 criterion.
3. The opportunity to discuss at a peer-level with a TSO in the region, which has just recently completed the same exercise and more or less faces similar challenges in regards of planning a transmission network comprising similar characteristics and size.
The Beneficiary took ownership in the following way:
5. Created and kept consistently throughout the project activities a task force comprising Moldelectrica experts
6. Hosted the two project missions and engaged in discussions with the INOGATE team of ex-perts and the representatives of ANRE.
7. Provided meaningful comments and insights for the development of the Code of Practice for Transmission planning and the Transmission Planning Standards, while the Moldelectrica Team was committed to verify certain technical data (i.e. information to be provided by the Transmission Network Users) against the requirements of the existing Technical Norms
8. Participated to the TSO exchange of practices workshop in Tbilisi and committed to continue further the collaboration between the Georgian and Moldovan TSOs.
2.11 Recommendations
Following the completion of this assignment Moldelectrica should establish a plan of actions of the elaboration of the first Moldovan TYDNP. In carrying out its role as a prudent and efficient TSO, Moldelectrica should plan the transmission network on the basis of good engineering practice and considering the integrity and reliability of the power system in Moldova regardless of assets ownership and or other considerations.
As a first step Moldelectrica should take the necessary actions so that the Code of Practice for Transmission Planning as well as the Transmission Planning Standards is published on Moldelectrica’s website. At a later stage the Code of Practice for Transmission Planning as well as the Transmission Planning Standards should become integral part of the future Grid Code. In addition as the Moldovan power system changes shape by the gradual implementation of the projects defined in the TYNDP the Transmission Planning Standards should become an integral part of the Planning Code (i.e. the chapter of the Grid Code discussing Transmission Planning as it would have emerged based on the current draft Code of Practice for Transmission Planning).
It is understood that the TYNDP is an evolving process during which each version of the TYNDP becomes a bit improved. It is imperative for the TSO to commence promptly the activity based on the resources available in order to start this continuous improvement process. Agreeing on the
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demand forecasting methodology and assumptions comprises a characteristic step in the development of the TYNDP.
On a provisional basis and subject to Moldelectrica’s own internal procedures we have developed a timeline for the development of the first Moldovan TYNDP. It takes into account the expected new ENTSO-E TYNDP and Romanian TYNDP 2016- 2025 as well as the approved Ukrainian TYNDP 2016-2025. It also coordinated the two-stage review of the TYNDP by ANRE and allows for coordination on the submission and approval of the Annual Investment Plan so that the progress of network investments is reflected in the latter.
2.12 Challenges Faced
No particular challenges can be reported. The work developed according to the provisions of the ToR and the cooperation with Moldelectrica and the rest of the stakeholders was efficient and productive.
2016 2017Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Draft UATYNDP
(2016-2025)
Approved UATYNDP
(2016-2025
Expected RO
TYNDP (2016- 2025)
Expected
ENTSO-ETYNDP
(2016-2025)
Report on
execution ofAnnual
InvestmentPlan
Draft MD
TYNDP
(2017-2026)
ANRE
Comments on
draft TYNDP
Final (&
publication)
TYNDP forapproval
Submission
of Annual
InvestmentPlan
Approval ofAnnual
InvestmentPlan (A)
Approval ofAnnual
InvestmentPlan (B)
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The only challenge that pertains is that the electricity draft law was not yet approved by the parliament during the time of development of this work and this report. Though no surprises are expected with respect of provisions of the new law on electricity describing the planning function of the TSO, if the law was enacted it would have enabled ANRE to consider adopting the Code of Practice for Transmission Planning and Transmission Planning Standards as Regulation using their predefined procedures. Perhaps this temporary difficulty gives a better momentum for the adoption of an integrated Grid Code (encompassing then the outcomes of this project) after the new electricity law is in place.
2.13 Impact
Moldova has shown true commitment and motivation in transposing the 3rd Energy Package and in fact this momentum was kept during the course of development of this assignment with the approval of the Law transposing the RES Directive. The draft regulatory texts as well as the guidance comprising this report can serve as a part of the implementation of the sustainable and resilient energy system of Moldova as it is aspired by the local law-makers.
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2.14 Annex 1 – important notes from the neighbouring TSOs TYNDPs
Following a detailed examination of the Ukrainian and Romanian TYNDPs, and given their importance as neighboring systems, a summary of related projects to be considered by Moldelectrica when developing the Moldovan TYNDP are presented below.
- Lack of power generation and the presence of a single line 330 kV "MGRES – Artiz” creates consumer supply difficulties in the Odessa region of Ukraine, especially during maintenance of the 110kV power lines. To ensure the required level of reliability in supply and maintenance of the admissible voltages in the region, is executed design work for a new OHL 330 kV "Novoodesk-Artiz" with a length of 104 km [UA TYNDP, page 17]75, which will be built during the years 2016-2019, with total cost of 1.63 billion HRU.
- Considerable increase of consumption in Odessa, loading the network on the border between Ukraine and Moldova, as well as unstable operation of MGRES power plant, construction in the region going to need a strong network node such as a 750/330 kV substation in "Primorsk", connecting all networks of 330 kV and 750 kV in the region, such as: OHL 750 kV "YujnoUkrainsk - Isaccea", OHL 330 kV "Kotovsk - MGRES", "Usatovo - MGRES", "Adjalik - Usatovo 2 ". It is also proposed OHL construction "Приморская - Арциз" based on the existing line OHL 330 kV "MGRES - Artiz" which will be entirely in Ukraine [UA TYNDP, page 17]. In accordance with Annex 7 [UA TYNDP] construction of 750/330 kV transformer substation "Primorsk" (AT 750 kV - 2x (3x333) MVA, OHL 750 kV - 150 km, OHL 330 kV - 130 km) is provided during 2016 -2021, the cost of which will be about 6.5 billion HRU. Thereafter, until 2024 it is planned put into service OHL 750 kV "Chea Dnestrovsk - Primorsk" (HRU 3.2 billion, 320 km).
- Due to internal technical reasons the interconnection capacity between Ukrainian and Moldavian Power Systems may be around 700 MW, but during the peaks it is limited considerably, and in regimes for the repair of the local 330 kV OHL - to 0 MW [UA TYNDP, page 34].
- The analysis of the back-to-back asynchronous interconnection of Moldova with Romania requires a set of projects so that to take full advantage of the interconnection. Such projects are:
o The Romanian TSO plans to increase interconnection capacity with Moldova in the period 2017-2022 by construction of a new OHL 400 kV "Suceava (RO) - Balti (MD)". The full capacity of the project will be exploited after the construction of OHL 400 kV "Suceava - Gădălin", and is included in the Romanian TYNDP [RO TYNDP, page 16, page 156]76.
o Currently another project is under analysis, to increase the exchange capacity with Moldova by building a 400 kV interconnection line, in the "Iasi - Ungheni" region.
75 Ukrainian TYNDP. Elaborated by “Ukrenergo”, 2016. 76 Romanian TYNDP. Elaborated by “Transelectrica”, 2014.
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The final solution will be agreed with representatives of the Moldovan TSO [RO TYNDP, page 16].
- An Action Plan prepared by Ukrenergo in view of the interconnection of Ukrainian Power System with ENTSO-E, originally planned to be completed in 2016-2017, at a cost of ca 2.8 billion HRU [UA TYNDP, page 44, Appendix 8]. It should be noted that the first activity of the Action Plan was the "feasibility study for the synchronous connection of power systems of Ukraine and Moldova to the European energy system ENTSO-E".
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2.15 Annex 2- Energy Balance (2014)
ENERGY BALANCE in 2014 (thousands of tonnes of oil equivalent)77
Supply and consumption
Total prod-ucts
Coal
Natu-ral gas
Oil prod-ucts
Biofu-els and waste
Electrici-ty
Heat
Primary production 303 - 0 8 290 5 - From other sources 224 - - - - 224 - Import 1814 101 851 799 0 63 - Export 22 - - 18 4 - - International bunkers -8 - - -8 - - - Stock changes 12 7 -1 14 -8 - - Gross consumption 2323 108 850 795 278 292 - Transformation, input 446 2 396 28 15 5 - Electricity plants 7 - 1 0 1 5 - Main activity producer combined heat and power (CHP) plants 283 - 283 - - - - Autoproducer combined heat and power (CHP) plants 39 - 25 11 3 - - Main activity producer heat plants 46 - 46 - - - - Autoproducer heat plants 50 2 41 0 7 - - Oil refineries 0 - - 0 - - - Petrochemical plants 17 - - 17 - - - Liquefaction plants - - - - - - - Charcoal production plants 1 - - - 1 - - Not elsewhere specified - transfor-mation 3 - - - 3 - - Transformation, output 361 - - 18 10 83 250 Electricity plants 6 - - - - 6 - Main activity producer combined heat and power (CHP) plants 208 - - - - 71 137 Autoproducer combined heat and power (CHP) plants 35 - - - - 6 29 Main activity producer heat plants 40 - - - - - 40 Autoproducer heat plants 44 - - - - - 44 Oil refineries 18 - - 18 - - - Petrochemical plants - - - - - - - Liquefaction plants - - - - - - - Charcoal production plants 1 - - - 1 - - Not elsewhere specified - transfor-mation 9 - - - 9 - - Energy sector 17 - - - - 17 0 Losses 152 0 68 4 0 40 40
77 http://www.statistica.md/category.php?l=en&idc=128
94
FINAL CONSUMPTION 2069 106 386 781 273 313 210 Industry 248 46 55 10 2 77 58 Iron and steel 1 - - - - 1 - Chemical and petrochemical 6 - 1 - - 4 1 Non-metallic minerals 86 43 31 - - 12 0 Transport equipment 1 - - - - 1 - Machinery 4 - 1 - - 3 0 Mining and quarrying 3 - - 2 - 1 - Food, beverages and tobacco 112 3 17 4 1 34 53 Paper, pulp and print 4 - 2 - - 1 1 Wood and wood products 7 - 1 - 1 5 0 Construction 6 - 1 4 - 1 - Textile and leather 6 - 1 - - 3 2 Not elsewhere specified 12 - - - - 11 1 Transport 610 - 8 597 - 5 - Domestic aviation 17 - - 17 - - - Road 581 - 1 576 - 4 - Rail 1 - - 1 - - - Pipeline transport 8 - 7 - - 1 - Domestic navigation 1 - - 1 - - - Non-specified 2 - - 2 - - - Other 1162 60 323 125 271 231 152 Residential 853 42 239 64 258 143 107 Commercial and public services 245 18 82 5 12 84 44 Agriculture/forestry 64 0 2 56 1 4 1 Not elsewhere specified - - - - - - - Non-energy use 49 - - 49 - - - Statistical differences - - - - - - -
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2.16 Annex 3 - Electricity scenarios from the Energy Strategy 2020
The following electricity scenarios are included in the Energy Strategy 202078
Forecast demand for peak load (right bank)
Years 2007 2010 2015 2020
Active Power (MW) 1130 1280 1375 1500
Electrical capacity development scenario, 2007-2020 (right bank)
Years 2007 2010 2015 2020 Forecast for generators required to cover peak load 1130 1280 1375 1500 Scenario Total electrical capacity, right bank
A Limited develop-ment by new ca-pacities
Existing capacity 346 346 346 346 Small CHP with distributed generation 51 108 179 Total 346 397 454 525 Demand coverage (%) 31% 31% 33% 35%
B Medium develop-ment by new ca-pacities
Existing capacity 346 346 346 346 Small CHP with distributed generation 51 108 179 Development of SPP-1, SPP-2, SPP-Nord1 296 Total 346 397 454 821 Demand coverage (%) 31% 31% 33% 55%
C Large develop-ment by new ca-pacities
Existing capacity 346 346 346 346 Small CHP with distributed generation 51 108 179 Development of SPP-1, SPP-2, SPP-Nord 2 24 96 296 Total 346 421 550 821 Demand coverage (%) 31% 33% 40% 55%
1. Expanding SPP-1 by 24 MW at year 2010; expanding SPP-Nord by 72 MW at year 2015; expand SPP-2 by 200 MW at year 2020. 2. Expanding SPP-1 by 24 MW, SPP-Nord by 72 MW and SPP-2 by 200 MW between 2015-2020.
78 http://lex.justice.md/index.php?action=view&view=doc&id=325108
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2.17 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND REFERENCES
1. MOLDELECTRICA web site
http://www.moldelectrica.md
2. ENTSO-E TYNDP 2014
https://www.entsoe.eu/major-projects/ten-year-network-development-plan/tyndp-2014/Pages/default.aspx
3. ENTSO-E CSE Regional Investment Plan 2014
https://www.entsoe.eu/major-projects/ten-year-network-development-plan/tyndp-2014/Pages/default.aspx
4. ACER Opinion on ENTSO-E CBA methodology
http://www.acer.europa.eu/en/electricity/Pages/default.aspx
5. Georgian TYNDP (2014-2024)
http://www.gse.com.ge/new/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TYNDP_GE_2015-2025_ENG.pdf
6. Irish TYNDP 2013-2023 (Draft)
http://www.pleanala.ie/misc/PCI/PCI1/DAF1/North%20South%20-%20Draft%20Application%20File/Reference%20Documents/EirGrid%20(2013)%20Draft%20Transmission%20Development%20Plan%20Draft_2013-2023_For_Public_Consultation.pdf
7. Greek TYNDP 2014-2023
http://www.admie.gr/to-systima-metaforas/anaptyxi-systimatos/dekaetes-programma-anaptyxis-systimatos-metaforas-dpa/
8. Transmission Planning: An Introduction, ABB, 2003
9. Electricity transmission expansion models, by Prof. Ignacio J. Pérez-Arriaga
10. ‘The future of the electric grid’, MIT, 2013
http://mitei.mit.edu/publications/reports-studies/future-electric-grid
11. W. Hogan, “Market-Based Transmission Investments and Competitive Electricity Markets”, 1999
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/whogan/tran0899.pdf
12. Electricity Capacity Assessment Report 2013, OFGEM, 27 June 2013
97
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/ofgem-publications/75232/electricity-capacity-assessment-report-2013.pdf
13. Modular Development Plan of the Pan-European Transmission System 2050: The selection of energy scenarios for e-Highway2050, 19.04.2013.
http://www.e-highway2050.eu/uploads/media/The_selection_of_energy_scenarios_for_e-Highway2050.pdf
14. Transmission Grid Planning in Modern Electricity Markets, Elforsk, 2013
http://www.elforsk.se/Documents/Market%20Design/projects/ER_13_73.pdf
15. ‘Market-Based Transmission Expansion Planning’ by Pavel Sergeyevich Drachev and Victor Vasilyevich Trufanov, Energy and Power Engineering, 2012, 4, 387-391.
16. ENERGY STRATEGY of the Republic of Moldova until 2030
http://lex.justice.md/md/346670/
17. ENTSO-E CCE Regional Investment Plan 2014
https://www.entsoe.eu/major-projects/ten-year-network-development-plan/tyndp-2014/Pages/default.aspx
18. ENTSO-E North Sea Regional Investment Plan 2014
https://www.entsoe.eu/major-projects/ten-year-network-development-plan/tyndp-2014/Pages/default.aspx
19. ENTSO-E CSW Regional Investment Plan 2014
https://www.entsoe.eu/major-projects/ten-year-network-development-plan/tyndp-2014/Pages/default.aspx
20. Classification of Publications and Models on Transmission Expansion Planning, G. Lattore et al, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, May 2003.
21. Ukrainian TYNDP, Ukrenergo, 2016.
22. Romanian TYNDP, Transelectrica, 2016.
23. Moldova Electric Power Market Options Sector Study, World Bank, Donors Meeting Chis-inau, June 4, 2015.
Link: www.un.md/publicdocget/291/
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