Actual and future wood availability - UNECE · 17.04.2009 Mantau: Actual and future wood availability slide 13 NAI - caluclated as a result of ideal forest stand It‘s more then

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Concept of comparison between forest inventory data and wood consumption statistic

Actual and future wood availability

PROF. DR. UDO MANTAUUNIVERSITÄT HAMBURGZENTRUM HOLZWIRTSCHAFT

Targets

1. Find a transparent systemacceptable for inventory experts as well as p y pfor market analysts.

2. Keep it easy –even for Non-Forestry-People.

Mantau: Actual and future wood availability slide 217.04.2009 slide 217.04.2009

3. Avoid serious mistakes –it‘s impossible to stay completely correctfor both sides if you want to achieve 1 + 2.

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Content

1 Where is the starting point?

2 Total available forest biomass potential

3 Usable stem wood (round wood)

4 Theoretical and available forest rest wood

5 The green band of sustainability

6 Unregisterd fellings


7 What does the customer need?

8 How does it all fit together?

9 Comparison of forest inventory and consumption (examples)

1. FAWS = total forest land – forest land not available(5% of area; 2,2% of standing volume; 0% of NAI*)(*not calculated in total forest assessment as wood resource)

1. Where is the starting point?

2. NAI = gross annual increment – natural mortality(5% of gross increment)


Example data from Germany 2006; source: Bormann, K./Dr. Matthias, D/Englert H./Küppers, J.-G./Hoffmann-Müller, R. (2007): Umweltökonomische Waldgesamtrechnungen, in: Wirtschaft und Statistik, H. 2, S. 212 ff.

The following calculations are based on FAWS and NAI

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Calculation of NAI varies between countriessignificant only

above

total

1. Where is the starting point?

In general stem wood is measured, but where?Total stemwood (0 cm) or above 7 cm diameter?

Above ground or above cutting curve?

This should be cleared, because it is especiallyrelevant for the calculation of forest restwood.

above 7 cm


Example data from Germany

stem: the principle axis fromwhich buds and shoots develop.The following calculations are based on

FAWS, Net Annual Increment and (stem) wood above 7 cm diameter above ground

Biomass assortments are calculated for later calculation of forest restwood

2. Total available forest biomass potential

Bra

nche

s

NAI = 101.4 M m³ = 100 %

Total available Forest Biomass (TFB) in Mio. m³

Nee

dles

Roo

ts


total available forest biomass on FAWS143.3 Mio m³ = 141,4 %

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NAI in M m³ and % 101.4 100%

3. Usable round wood

— Bark 8.1 8,0%

— Harvest losses 12.2 12,0%

= Stem wood (gross; > 7cm) 81.1 80,0%


— Unused harvest volume 9,8 9,7%

= Stem wood (net) 71.3 70,3%

Source: Mantau (2007) The legend of the woody biomass reserve in Europe; UNECE Workshop Mobilizing Wood Resources; Geneva January 11-12, 2007; Example data from Germany 2008 Volume: Polley/Kroiher; Percentages: Dieter/Englert

felling wedgemeasurement

point

3. Usable round wood – harvest losses

mid diameterround off to full cm

cutting karf

Mantau: Actual and future wood availability slide 8

Bark goes to industry, but is not included in felling statistics

1% allowance for trim overlength

17.04.200917.04.2009

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Examples for unused stem wood (round wood) [1]

3. Usable round wood – unused stem wood

When stem wood isWhen stem wood is measured above

ground, this is unused stem wood

Mantau: Actual and future wood availability slide 917.04.2009

Examples for unused stem wood (round wood) [2]

3. Usable round wood – unused stem wood

No felling, no removal – just cut

No stem wood, but wood above 7 cm

diameter.

removal just cut off stem wood.


Unused stem wood is something else then the difference between fellings

and removals.

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gross [M m³] forest restwood and net [Mio. M m³]63.9 M m³ usability factor [%] 19.9 M m³

3. Theoretical and available forest rest wood

9,8

18,0

12,1 Harvest losses 10%

Unused harvest vol. 75%

Branches (< 7 cm) 50%

1,2

7,4

9,0


5,7

18,3

Needles 25%

Roots 5%

1,4

0,9

Source: Spellmann/Mantau/Polley: Plattform Forst und Holz

Overall usable forest biomass

round wood

4. Total available wood from forests

71.3 M m³ 78%

22%19,9 M m³

total usable

currently usable forest restwood


total usable forest biomass 91,2 M m³

Biomass 141.3 M m³

100%

usable of total biomass 65%

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Different forest biomass potentials/scenarios

NAI - calculated as a result of past inventory data

5. The green band of sustainability

p y

NAI - caluclated as a result of models on future availability- based on assumptions on uneven-aged forests (reserve),

change in rotation rates, forest management etc.


NAI - caluclated as a result of ideal forest stand

17.04.2009 slide 13

It‘s more then just a number -


it‘s a green band of sustanability


The calculation of sustainable NAI depends on assumptions on forest management as well as on values.

Thus sustainability may vary in a substancial range of options.

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The basis for a comparison of wood consumption with sustainable available woody biomass is the calculation of sustainable options (e.g. five years periods)


90

100

110

120

130

140

150 Scenario high = medium + intensified management Scenario medium = low + higher volume old stands Scenario low - NAI (- bark - losses) cutting volume (Efm)


50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Example: Data from Germany

Official statistics offer fellings and removals

6. Unregistered fellings

These removals are definitely included! But what about these ?

?Mantau: Actual and future wood availability slide 1617.04.2009

Unregistered fellings in Germany in avarage added up to 15%, with a maximum of 22% in 2005, but since then have been estimated continiously and thereby the difference deceased to less then 10%.

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OBS! Calculation of „total removals“

6. Unregistered fellings

Concequences for forest models of standing volumeand NAI.

If only official fellings are calculated the remaining volume is


overvalued year by year.

Assuming unregistered fellings of just 10% of all fellings they will add up to annual NAI in less then ten years.

Source: EFI - Forest Information SCENario model EFISCEN (The use of this illustration does not imply, that this is a problem of the presented model!

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assortmentswood

minimumtotal wood

desiredsoftwood

desiredhardwood

7. What does the customer need?

roundwoodlog (by use *)

X X X

other r.w.(difference)

X X X

Σ roundwood(sum)

X X X


forest restwood

X X X

Σ woody biomass

X X X

*) Consumption of roundwood in sawmill, veneer and plywood industry,

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inventory roundwoodlogs

otherroundwood

softwood 97 3 2 7

If forestry growth modelsinclude a modelling ofassortments, they

7. What does the customer need?

softwood 97,3 2,7hardwood 82,4 17,6

actual use roundwoodlogs

otherroundwood

systemtically overestimatelogs and underestimateother stem wood (pulpwood)

Thus it is better to utilizeassortment proportionsfrom the actual use, eg.as a five year moving


softwood 60,6 39,4hardwood 53,0 47,0

as a five year movingaverage.

OBS! Assortment proportion from felling statistics does not represent possible potential for saw mills. Because of quality restictions it is even smaller.

8. How does it all fit together?


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in M. m³ (NAI)

Comparison of total NAI and total consumption in standing volume

9. Comparison of forest inventory data with consumption

40

60

80

100

120

'Yearly NAI (standing volume) on FLAW

Consumption (*1,3) in 'NAI'


0

20

40

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009


in Mio. VFm

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

Additional standing volume over time Standing volume


0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Additional standing volume over time

Standing volume in the reference year

in Mio. m³

1.000

1.200

Change of standing volumen since reference year (1987) in standing m³

Change of standing volumen since reference year (1987) in cutting m³

Standing volumedevelopment

Example of result presentation fordecision makers

Yearly accumulateddevelopment of

Development of total standing volume


0

200

400

600

800

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

development ofstanding volume

Example data from Germany

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Comparison by assortments

softwood stem wood minimum requirementsfor scenarios


30

40

50

60

70

softwood (stem) - medium comsumption



0

10

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

( ) p softwood (stem) - upper consumption softwood (stem) - lower consumption softwood stemwood - lower availability softwood stemwood - upper availability


hardwood stem wood minimum requirementsfor scenarios



20

25

30

35

40

hardwood (stem) - medium consumption hardwood (stem) upper consumption hardwood (stem) - lower consumption hardwood stemwood - lower availability hardwood stemwood - upper availability


0

5

10

15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


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forest restwood minimum requirementsfor scenarios


10

15

20

25

forest restwood consumption upper scenario lower scenariof t t d t h i ll il bl l i

Mantau: Actual and future wood availability

0

5

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

forest restwood technically available - lower scenario forest restwood technically available - upper scenario

slide 2517.04.2009


wood or not wood


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Documents

Actual and future wood availability - UNECE · 17.04.2009 Mantau: Actual and future wood availability slide 13 NAI - caluclated as a result of ideal forest stand It‘s more then