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ActuariesandAI
FrankAsheIndependentConsultant&Director
Availableworldwide
Freestylechesshttps://www.huffpost.com/entry/centaur-chess-shows-power_b_6383606
Neuralnetworksgetthingswrong,sometimes:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03013-5?sf221156507=1&error=cookies_not_supported&code=f7cdca41-3bb2-46d5-8944-2d52d834f92f
And sometimes there’s urban myths about getting things wrong THENEURALNETTANKURBANLEGEND
AIfolkloretellsastoryaboutaneuralnetworktrainedtodetecttankswhichinsteadlearnedtodetecttimeofday;investigating,thisprobablyneverhappened.
https://www.gwern.net/Tanks
DowewantIQorEQ?See:TheStrangeOrderofThings–AntonioDamasioOurIQisintimatelyboundupwithourEQ
Damasiosuggeststhatourhard-wireddrives,urges,compulsions,impulsesandautomaticresponses,suchashunger,desireandpain,originatefrom“subjectiveexperiencesofthemomentarystateofhomeostasis”—thatis,thebody’sroutine,humdrumregulationofitsvisceralfunction.Hearguesthatthereisanorganicdialoguebetweenthisbiologicalprocessandthefeelingsthatarisefromourcontinuousscrutinyofit.Thatdiversepenumbraoffeelingsandimpulses,inturn,continuouslyinfusesconsciousthoughtand,ultimately,driveshumanbehaviour.What the body feels is every bit as significant as what the mind thinks, a neuroscientist argues. Turn to emotions to explain human consciousness and cultures
Goodreviews:https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/feb/02/strange-order-of-things-antonio-damasio-reviewhttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-01326-5
WhatcouldquantumcomputingdotoAI?MarkFarrell,Ph.D.,FIA𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀:𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴.Apotentialgamechangerforourprofession?Somewaysquantumcomputingmightaffectactuarialwork:*Modellingclimatechange,viasimulation,withgreateraccuracy.*Solvingoptimisationproblemsinfinancewithease.*StreamliningMachineLearning.*Enhancedportfolioriskoptimisation.*MoresophisticatedandaccurateMonteCarlosimulation.*Instantaneous&extremelythoroughsimulationtogainextensiveinsight.*AccelerationofArtificialIntelligence.12October2019LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/markfarrellactuary_actuaries-activity-6588688932043542529-ZxQPAllcorrect,but...Oneoftheproblemswithspeedingupthecomputation,whetherthroughquantumcomputingorsomethingelse,isthatmanyofthebasicproblemsarestillnotdealtwith.Weknowthewronganswermoreaccurately,morequickly.Thelimitsonaccuracyofthecalculations,andtheImplementationarestillthemajorproblems.
HowmanypeopledieinSingaporeeachyear?Whatwouldbeatypicalrangeforthisnumber?
Let’sguess!5millionpeople?Averagelifespan80years?Inequilibrium1/80thofpeoplemustdieeachyear=5,000,000/80=62,500
Thisisactuallywrong,it’sabout20,000duetotheagepyramid.Seethecrudedeathratesettoincreaseasthepopulationages:
What’stheexpecteduncertainty?Ifit’saPoissonvariablethenthestandarddeviationisthesquarerootoftheexpectednumber:√62,500~800Likelytobehigherthanthat
Fermiproblems:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problemDidtheyteachyouthissortofthinking?Textbooksavailableforthiscourse!Considerasphericalcow–JohnHarteCanAIdothis?
Trolleyology
GettingAItohaveabasicideaofethics.Needtobebuiltintosystemswherepeoplecanbehurt.
ByMcGeddon-Ownwork,CCBY-SA4.0,https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=52237245
BUT…
Doyouknowwhatyou’re
doing?
Parallel Automatic processes – unconscious and fast too
• Anchoring,Salience,Confirmationbias,Framing,Baseratefallacy,Endowmenteffect,Illusionofknowledge,Stereotyping…
Heuristicsfordecisions
• Overconfidence,Overoptimism,In-groupfavour,Hyperbolicdiscounting,AssumptionofAgency…
Biases
Withallthisunconsciousstuffgoingon,howdoweknow
whatwe’redoing?
Howdoweknowwhatwewilldo?
Spurious sense making!
18
19
Weneedtomakesenseoftheworld
Consciousprocessescan’taccesstheotherprocesses
Buildamodelofourselves–Gazzaniga’sInterpreter
Tendstoattributebehaviourtoitself
Seeswhatwe’vedoneandguessesastowhy,basedonwhatwe’vedoneinthepast
HowdoIplan?Seewhatthemodelofhowwebehavesays.
Weneedtobeveryawarethatthereasonswethinkwehaveforwhatwedoarenotnecessarilytherealreasons.Ifweaskapersonwhytheydidsomethingtheymay,withoutbeinginanywayuntruthful,giveusthewrongreasons.Theythinkthosereasonsarecorrect,buttheyarenot.
Ifwedon’tknowwhywedidsomething
thenwhyshouldweexpectanAItobeabletoexplainitself?