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Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change

Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

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Page 1: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New

MobilityHow-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented

change

Page 2: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

About Nunes-Ueno Consulting

Page 3: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Transit and Mobility Director for Seattle

On/Off Street Parking

Transit Network

Bike Share

Shared Mobility

Page 4: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Seattle Children’s 2030 Master Plan Submitted October 2008

Page 5: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Drive Alone

Drive Alone

2018 RESULTS68% ALTERNATIVES

2028 GOAL70% ALTERNATIVES

Seattle Children’s Met Goal--10 years Early

Page 6: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Burning Platforms: Geometry + Robots

Page 7: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Meet Our Geometry Teacher

Page 8: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

1999 Office Space

Page 9: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

2018 Office Space Has 5 X More People

Page 10: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Can We Fit 5 X More People Here?

Page 11: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

How About Here?

Page 12: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Why So Car Dependent?

Drive Alone76%

Drive Alone69%

Page 13: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

One Possible Cause: Broken Menu

Page 14: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Broken Menu Limits Choices + Pumps up Demand for One Item.

Cheaper!Faster!Safer!Easier!

BS

Page 15: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

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Page 16: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

How Will Robots Impact Geometry?

Page 17: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

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Page 18: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

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Page 19: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

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Page 20: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

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Page 21: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

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Page 22: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

BUT if Vehicle Occupancy Goes Down...

CAR UBER AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

~150 riders~100 riders

Our Geometry Problem Gets Worse!

Page 23: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Either Way, When Robots Come Demand for Car Storage Will Go Down. A lot.

2022 20382018

Page 24: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

2022 20382018

How to Reduce Demand Before the Crash?

Page 25: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Make a New Menu

Page 26: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

CULTURE COST

CONVENIENCE CONCRETE

= MODE CHANGE

X X

X

The Main Ingredients Are:

Page 27: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Leadership is Key to Culture

Page 28: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

CULTURE COST

CONVENIENCE CONCRETE

= MODE CHANGE

X X

X

Page 29: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Monthly

Parking

Page 30: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

DailyParking

DailyReward

Page 31: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

CULTURE COST

CONVENIENCE CONCRETE

= MODE CHANGE

X X

X

Page 32: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

End of Trip Facilities Can Shorten Overall Trip Time

Page 33: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

FREE BIKE!

‘Company Bikes’ make it easy to start riding

Page 34: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

CULTURE COST

CONVENIENCE CONCRETE

= MODE CHANGE

X X

X

Page 35: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Walk + Roll Choices Multiplying

Page 36: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

Before: Car Centric

Page 37: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

After: Concrete Supports Choices

Page 38: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

How Dynamic Mobility Menu Might Work

Page 39: Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility · Adapt or Die: Survival Recipes for Age of New Mobility How-to-guide for dealing with unprecedented change. About Nunes-Ueno

THANK YOU!

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Paulo [email protected]