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lessons for climate
change adaptation from better
management of rivers
Guest Editor: Jamie Pittock
lessons for climate
change adaptation from better
management of rivers
Climate change is dramatically affecting freshwater supplies, particularly in the developing world. The papers in this special issue of the Climate and
Development journal present a powerful case for and exploration of different freshwater adaptation strategies in the face of global climatic change.
The volume centres on six detailed case studies, from India, China, Mexico, Brazil, the lower Danube basin and Tanzania, written by experienced local academics and practitioners. They assess autonomous adaptation in the freshwater sector, drawing out important lessons from what motivated these societies to change, which factors led to more successful adaptation, and how interventions may best be sustained. The volume also contains a global overview of the lessons derived from these experiences. It sheds light on the key hypothesis that vulnerability to climate change is best reduced by reducing poverty and promoting sustainable development first, and by reducing bio-physical risks from climate change. The publication also highlights the need to ensure that access to more precise climate change impact data is not used as an excuse to delay implementation of ‘no regrets’ adaptation measures.
Jamie Pittock is currently at the Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University. After 13 years working for the conservation organisation, WWF, he resigned as Director of its Global Freshwater Program in 2007 to undertake research on the lessons, conflicts and synergies between freshwater conservation and climate change policies.
www.earthscan.co.uk9 781849 710909
ISBN 978-1-84971-090-9
lessons for climate change adaptation from
better managem
ent of rivers
Guest Editor: Jam
ie Pittock Natural Resource Management/Climate/Water
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Climate and Development 1(3) November 2009.
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EDITORIAL191 Why a special issue on adaptation and water management?
JAMIE PITTOCK and STEPHEN DOVERS
PAPERS194 Lessons for climate change adaptation from better
management of riversJAMIE PITTOCK
212 Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube:A climate change adaptation case studySUZANNE EBERT, ORIETA HULEA and DAVID STROBEL
220 Freshwater management and climate change adaptation:Experiences from the Great Ruaha River catchment in TanzaniaJAPHET. J. KASHAIGILI, KOSSA RAJABU and PETRO MASOLWA
229 Adapting to climate change in the Godavari River basinof India by restoring traditional water storage systemsBIKSHAM GUJJA, SRABAN DALAI, HAJARA SHAIK and VINOD GOUD
241 Freshwater management and climate change adaptation:Experiences from the Central Yangtze in ChinaXIUBO YU, LUGUANG JIANG, LIFENG LI, JINXIN WANG, LIMIN WANG,
GANG LEI and JAMIE PITTOCK
249 Integrated river basin management in the Conchos River basin,Mexico: A case study of freshwater climate change adaptationJ. EUGENIO BARRIOS, J. ALFREDO RODRIGUEZ-PINEDA and MAURICIO
DE LA MAZA BENIGNOS
261 Participatory river basin management in the Sao Joao River,Brazil: A basis for climate change adaptation?LUIZ FIRMINO MARTINS PEREIRA, SAMUEL BARRETO and JAMIE
PITTOCK
269 Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate change adaptation:A natural history approachJOHN H. MATTHEWS and A. J. WICKEL
VOLUME 1 ISSUE 3 2009
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers
Aims and Scope
Climate and Development is dedicated to the range of issues that arise when climate variability, climatechange and climate policy are considered along with development needs, impacts and priorities. Itaims to make complex analysis of climate and development issues accessible to a wide audience ofresearchers, policymakers and practitioners, and to facilitate debate between the diverseconstituencies active in these fields throughout the world.
The journal provides a forum to communicate research, review and discussion on the interfacesbetween climate, development, policy and practice. Every three months it presents conceptual,policy-analytical and empirical studies of the interactions between climate impacts, mitigation,adaptation and development on scales from the local to global. Contributions from and aboutdeveloping countries are particularly encouraged; however, research on developed countries iswelcome provided that the link between climate and development is the central theme.
Climate and Development is of direct and vital relevance to academics, policy analysts, consultants,negotiators, industrial and non-governmental organisations, and to all those working to ensure abetter understanding of the links between climate and development.
The journal is the platform of choice for academic debate on issues that link climate and development,and invites contributions on all such issues. These include, but are not limited to:
B The vulnerability of communities to the combined impacts of climate change and non-climaticstresses
B Links between development and building capacity to respond to climate changeB The integration (mainstreaming) of climate policy adaptation and mitigation into sectoral planning
and development policyB Conflicts and synergies between mitigation, energy development and povertyB The importance of climate and long-term weather forecasting for developmentB Responsibilities of developing countries in a post-2012 climate policy regimeB The effects of climate change on meeting the Millennium Development GoalsB The implications for development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its
Kyoto Protocol, as well as all other existing or proposed policy frameworksB Financing arrangements for adaptation and mitigation in developing countriesB Economic analysis of the effects of climate adaptation and mitigation on developing countriesB Traditional knowledge and local strategies for managing natural resources and coping with climate
changeB Forest management and its relationship to mitigation, adaptation and developmentB Adaptation, mitigation and the poor
These and other topics are addressed in a number of ways, including:
B Research articles (theoretical developments, concepts and methods, empirical analysis and policyassessments)
B Review articlesB Case studiesB ViewpointsB Book reviewsB Meeting reports
Why a special issue on adaptation andwater management?JAMIE PITTOCK* and STEPHEN DOVERS
Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
The Copenhagen Climate Change conference in March2009 reported that ‘adaptation measures to lessen theimpacts of climate change are urgently needed now.Given the considerable uncertainties around projectionsof climate impacts on water resources at local and regionalscales, building resilience, managing risks, and employ-ing adaptive management are likely to be the most effec-tive adaptation strategies’ (Richardson et al., 2009). Theconference went on to conclude: ‘As part of building effec-tive adaptation, research is urgently required into the impli-cations of existing policies and potential future policieswith regard to adaptation: do they support or hinderadaptation, and how do they need to be changed?’(Richardson et al., 2009). This special edition of Climateand Development aims to contribute to the ongoingprocess of learning how our societies may more effectivelyadapt to a changing climate. We start here by outliningthe choice of focus of this volume and summarizing thepapers that comprise it. We conclude by highlightingthe key lessons drawn from this research.
1. Focus
We chose to focus this edition of Climate and Developmenton water management because it is an important field fromwhich to draw lessons on risk management and adap-tation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) declares that ‘adaptation to changing conditionsin water availability and demand has always been at thecore of water management’ (Kundzewicz et al., 2007).The IPCC define such historical actions in the water sectoras autonomous adaptation measures ‘that do not consti-tute a conscious response to climate stimuli, but resultfrom changes to meet altered demands, objectives andexpectations which, whilst not deliberately designed to
cope with climate change, may lessen the consequencesof that change. Such adaptations are widespread in thewater sector, although with varying degrees of effective-ness in coping with climate change . . .’ (Bates et al.,2008). As such autonomous adaptations are widespreadand possibly the most common form of adaptation to cli-mate change, there is much that society can learn fromthe factors that hinder and facilitate the effectiveness ofsuch measures, and from understanding learning pro-cesses and the limits of adaptation: this is the focus ofthis special edition.
2. Case studies
Climate and Development was established (in part) to:‘make complex analysis of climate and developmentissues accessible to a wide audience of researchers, pol-icymakers and practitioners, and to facilitate debatebetween the diverse constituencies active in these fieldsthroughout the world’, and to ‘offer a possibility of publi-cation for many of the practical lessons that are learnt inprojects but often not shared with the academic commu-nity’. This special edition fills such a role by reporting onthe lessons drawn from six empirical, consistentlydesigned freshwater adaptation case studies from devel-oping countries, based on projects of the conservationorganization WWF (World Wildlife Fund/World WideFund for Nature). These case studies illustrate a numberof issues at the forefront of the global debates on sustain-able water management and climate change adaptation:
B Gujja et al. report on their work in India that assessesthe costs and benefits from restoring traditional villagewater tanks as an adaption measure. Pittock then
editorial
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 191–193
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0019 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
compares this approach with the proposed construc-tion of a large dam on the Godavari River, encapsulat-ing the debate between proponents of adaptationthrough large infrastructure vs. decentralized andsmall-scale appropriate technologies.
B Yu et al. outline the benefits of restoring flood plainlakes in the central Yangtze River basin compared toreliance on flood ‘protection’ dykes. This paper alsohighlights the enhanced livelihoods derived frommore flood-adapted agri- and aqua-cultural systems,and the importance of concurrent interventions atdifferent geopolitical scales within China.
B Barrios et al. detail their work on enhancing watersecurity in the drought-prone, over-allocated Rio Con-chos basin in northern Mexico. Their paper illustratesthe need for conjunctive management of surface andground waters, the need to use multi-stakeholder pro-cesses to better manage scarce resources, and theopportunities for international treaties to drive localreforms.
B Pereira et al. outline the development of adaptive man-agement capacities through a multi-stakeholder riverbasin consortium at Rio Sao Joao in Brazil. They high-light the enabling power of sound national water law infacilitating basin-scale institution building, communityengagement and adaptive management to progress-ively address environmental problems.
B Ebert et al. describe reform of river management in thelower Danube basin in Eastern Europe. In outlining theadaptation benefits from large-scale floodplain restor-ation for flood management, economic diversificationand biodiversity conservation, they demonstrate howsupranational European institutions have driven reform.
B Kashaigili et al. detail outputs from a programme torestore dry season flows in the Great Ruaha River ofTanzania. They illustrate the benefits of concurrentinstitutional interventions to reduce poverty and directinterventions to reduce vulnerability to water scarcity.
These case studies from practitioners do not fully conformto the idealized formulas of academic research. However,given uncertainties associated with climate changeimpacts and the urgent need to distil and communicatelessons for adaptation in the near term, there is greatvalue in examining programmes that have (in all but onecase) been operating for more than five years. These retro-spective studies of autonomous adaptation in projects byWWF and its partners lack desirable quantitative data in
places. Yet by drawing on multiple cases and using con-sistent analytical frameworks they usefully report the trialsand errors – and successes – of social learning in multi-stakeholder adaptive management processes (Lee,1993). The case studies highlight uncertainties in thesesocieties’ responses to water management and climatevariability and change. Yet it is precisely these sorts ofreal-life examples of adaptation in uncertain conditionsthat researchers, policymakers and society at large needto learn from if the global community is to better adapt tothe problems of climate change and water managementthat afflict our globe.
WWF’s willingness to expose its work to academic scru-tiny is to be welcomed and, consequently, it deserves to berewarded in terms of constructive engagement to furtherenhance their programmes. It is to be hoped that thisvolume inspires other practitioner organizations to publishsimilar assessments of their programme portfolios.
3. Key lessons
In this volume, Pittock reviews the six case studies to derivecommon lessons on policy style and sub-programme detail(Dovers, 2005), to inform practitioners, policymakers andour broader societies on measures that may enhanceadaptation to climate change. Crucially, he observes thata number of charismatic local programme leaders hadnot engaged in climate adaptation, concluding that adap-tation proponents need to engage better with local insti-tutions (Burgess et al., 1998; Meinke et al., 2006) to seizethe opportunities for complementary ‘no and low regrets’adaptations in their current activities. The assessment ofthese freshwater cases in developing countries contributesto debates in the literature, by proposing that climatechange adaptation is best enhanced by:
B concurrently acting to reduce poverty and enhancelivelihoods, and manage biophysical vulnerability,rather than favouring either response alone (Adger,2006; Schipper, 2007);
B favouring investment in scalable, decentralized,small-scale appropriate technologies, and enhancingenvironmental resilience (Tompkins and Adger, 2004),rather than first opting for centralized infrastructure;
B investing in the capacity of local- to basin-scale insti-tutions to apply adaptive management programmesover many years (Connor and Dovers, 2004);
B linking institutions at different geopolitical scales tofacilitate better local to global adaptation (Adger
192 Pittock and Dovers
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
et al., 2005), which in most cases will require moreeffective and efficient national institutions.
Matthews and Wickel in this volume draw on the lessonsderived from this WWF work. They note that climatechange impacts on freshwater systems are associatedwith high uncertainty and criticize model-driven ‘impactsthinking’. Identifying the need for multi-generationalresponse, they propose an ‘adaptation thinking’ approachas a template for sustainable development and climatechange adaptation.
Dovers (2009) proposes that ‘we can go at least halfwayto a believable adaptation policy by implementing known,well-supported policy and management options’ and by‘normalizing adaptation, and empowering officials,agencies, local communities’. Pittock’s assessment ident-ifies that in many cases national governments have failedto turn policy into effective action, especially in terms ofimplementing enabling laws and financing measures forsub-national adaptive management institutions, particularlyriver basin management organizations. These projects alsohighlight the extensive opportunities in the freshwater andclimate adaptation field for ‘no and low regrets’ interven-tions: restoration of environmental resilience and other eco-logical services; scalable, decentralized, small-scaleappropriate technologies; and effective, multi-stakeholderadaptive management institutions.
These case studies expose the limits of expert- andmodelling-driven adaptation methods by showing thatknowledgeable and well-meaning local leaders may post-pone action while awaiting better advice and data, whenthe climate impact uncertainties are unlikely to be reducedto a meaningful extent any time soon. The research alsoemphasizes the tremendous opportunities available toimplement practical adaptation measures now.
References
Adger, W. N., 2006. Vulnerability. Global EnvironmentalChange, 16(3). 268–281.
Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W. and Tompkins, E., 2005.Successful adaptation to climate change acrossscales. Global Environmental Change Part A, 15(2).77–86.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J. P.(eds). 2008. Climate Change and Water. TechnicalPaper of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva.
Burgess, J., Harrison, C. M. and Filius, P., 1998. Environ-mental communication and the cultural politics ofenvironmental citizenship. Environment and PlanningA, 30. 1445–1460.
Connor, R. and Dovers, S., 2004. Institutional Change forSustainable Development. Edward Elgar Publishing,Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, USA.
Dovers, S., 2005. Environment and Sustainability Policy:Creation, Implementation, Evaluation. Federation Press,Annandale, VA.
Dovers, S., 2009. Normalizing adaptation. Global Environ-mental Change, 19(1). 4–6.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Doll, P., Kabat,P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K. A., Oki, T., Sen, Z. andShiklomanov, I. A., 2007. Freshwater resources andtheir management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergo-vernmental Panel on Climate Change, M. L. Parry, O. F.Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E.Hanson (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cam-bridge, UK. 196.
Lee, K. N., 1993. Compass and gyroscope: integratingscience and politics for the environment. Island Press,Washington, DC and Covelo, CA.
Meinke, H., Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Stone, R., Selvaraju, R.and Baethgen, W., 2006. Actionable, climate knowl-edge: from analysis to synthesis. Climate Research,33. 101–110.
Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Schellnhuber, H. J., Alcamo,J., Barker, T., Kammen, D. M., Leemans, R., Liverman,D., Munasinghe, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Stern, N. andWaever, O., 2009. Synthesis Report. Climate Change.Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions. University ofCopenhagen, Copenhagen.
Schipper, E. L. F., 2007. Climate Change Adaptation andDevelopment: Exploring the Linkages. Tyndall CentreWorking Paper No. 107. Tyndall Centre for ClimateChange Research, Norwich, UK.
Tompkins, E. L. and Adger, W. N., 2004. Doesadaptive management of natural resources enhanceresilience to climate change? Ecology and Society,9(2). 10.
Editorial 193
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Lessons for climate change adaptation from bettermanagement of riversJAMIE PITTOCK*
Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
Autonomous adaptation in the water sector is assessed to derive lessons for more successful climate change adaptationfrom six empirical, consistently designed river management case studies based on projects of WWF. They show that whenadaptation measures are considered in the context of common problems in water management, many practical ways ofbuilding resilience to climate change through mainstream programs are evident. The cases are mainly from developing countries– India, China, Mexico, Brazil, the lower Danube basin and Tanzania – where efforts to reduce environmental degradationand enhance livelihoods have directly helped to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. The key lessonsinclude: the benefits of concurrent measures for improving livelihoods and reducing physical vulnerability; the need toenhance and fund local institutions to mainstream adaptation programmes; and the value in implementing ‘no and lowregrets’ measures despite uncertainties.
Keywords: adaptation; climate change; developing countries; institutions; non-governmental organizations; rivers; water
1. Introduction
The world faces grave challenges in sustaining
water resources for people and nature, problems
that are exacerbated by the impacts of climate
change and the need for ongoing, effective and
efficient adaptation. The term adaptation can be
broadly applied to actions to manage changes
in the environment or society, beyond impacts
induced by climate change. The Intergovernmen-
tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declares
(Kundzewicz et al., 2007, p. 196) that: ‘Adap-
tation to changing conditions in water avail-
ability and demand has always been at the core
of water management’. The IPCC also defines
autonomous adaptation actions as (Bates et al.,
2008, p. 48): ‘those that do not constitute a con-
scious response to climate stimuli, but result
from changes to meet altered demands, objec-
tives and expectations which, whilst not deliber-
ately designed to cope with climate change,
may lessen the consequences of that change.
Such adaptations are widespread in the water
sector, although with varying degrees of effective-
ness in coping with climate change’. As auton-
omous adaptations are widespread and possibly
the most common form of adaptation to
climate change, there is much that society can
learn from the factors hindering and facilitating
the effectiveness of such measures, and this is
the focus of this paper. Further, as the climate
will continue to change, adaptation is considered
in this paper to be an ongoing rather than finite
process (Matthews and Wickel, 2009).
To contribute to the design of more effective
freshwater climate adaptation processes, this
paper considers freshwater case studies that
meet the IPCC’s definition of autonomous adap-
tation to derive lessons on what motivated these
societies to change, the factors that led to more
successful processes, and how interventions may
best be sustained. Rather than a theoretical assess-
ment of what measures could or should be
review article
B *E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 194–211
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0021 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
implemented, this paper seeks lessons from
ongoing freshwater adaptation processes. The
paper also considers the benefits of these auton-
omous adaptation measures in terms of how
they increase resilience1 (Bates et al., 2008), and
reduce vulnerability2 (Bates et al., 2008).
In many cases climate change is expected to
be felt first, and most severely, by changes
in hydrology. In response, development of
effective policies requires in part ‘practical
implementation knowledge’ as one key evidence
base (Head, 2008), as well as scientific and politi-
cal knowledge. While these case studies have
elements of all three types of knowledge, it is
lessons from ongoing implementation that are
sought in this paper. Rather than a search for a
complete package of programme elements
(Dovers, 2005), the comparative policy analysis
undertaken in this research is focused on sub-
programme detail, derivation of lessons from
specific elements of the processes, and also the
policy style.
In 2008, in presenting the preliminary findings
for UN Water’s 3rd World Water Development
Report, the report’s content coordinator, Dr
William J. Cosgrove, regretted the lack of pub-
lished case studies that linked freshwater man-
agement and its potential to contribute to
climate change adaptation. He called on imple-
menting agencies to publish assessments of
their activities. In response, this paper is intended
to identify such knowledge from the work of a
large non-governmental organization.
This paper reports on the global lessons drawn
from six empirical, consistently designed case
studies of autonomous freshwater adaptation
processes based on projects of a conservation
organization, the World Wide Fund for Nature
(also known as the World Wildlife Fund or
WWF). The cases are from India (Gujja et al.,
2009), China (Yu et al., 2009), Mexico (Barrios
et al., 2009), Brazil (Pereira et al., 2009), the
lower Danube basin (Ebert et al., 2009) and
Tanzania (Kashaigili et al., 2009). Project sites
were selected by the largely independent local
WWF offices at different times, although three
of the six projects were substantially funded in
the period reported on here through a globally
coordinated programme called Investing in
Nature, supported by the Hong Kong Shanghai
Banking Corporation (HSBC) and WWF UK. The
six river basins concerned were all considered by
WWF to be significant for biodiversity conserva-
tion, and their conservation work commenced
more than six years ago at all sites, except with
the Godavari project. Otherwise, the only
common thread in their selection was a need
perceived by WWF and sectors of the local com-
munity to respond to severe environmental
degradation, often indicated by disasters, which
threatened biodiversity and peoples’ livelihoods
(Table 1).
In response to this environmental degradation,
WWF and the local institutions instigated actions
that reduce vulnerability to climate variability
and related natural resource management pro-
blems, including the types of climate impacts
expected to be exacerbated by climate change.
WWF is a proponent of the sustainable develop-
ment environmental discourse (Dryzek, 1997),
and its actions in these field projects reflect their
beliefs in nested social and ecological systems,
that environmental protection and socio-
economic benefits are mutually reinforcing,
and in decentralized, exploratory and variable
approaches in pursuit of sustainability (Lee,
1993).
A key dilemma facing policymakers is whether
adaptation is better facilitated by focusing on bio-
physical risk reduction, or whether it would be
more effective to invest in reducing poverty and
improving livelihoods more generally so as to
build the resilience and adaptability of local com-
munities to climate change impacts (Brooks,
2003; Adger, 2006; Schipper, 2007). The research
considers how such measures are best integrated
into society (Ross and Dovers, 2008). A further
choice is between more technical infrastructure
on the one hand, and on the other, favouring
small-scale and decentralized interventions with
a greater emphasis on increasing societal
capacities (Moench and Stapleton, 2007; Ribot
et al., 2009). These questions are further assessed
in this paper.
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 195
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
2. Methods
Six existing WWF projects (see Table 1) were
selected for research by the author in consul-
tation with staff of WWF UK. The projects were
selected on the basis that they had the following
characteristics: a significant focus on people’s
management of hydrological variability; were
from countries with developing or emerging
economies and from a broad continental distri-
bution; and had been under way for sufficient
time to have produced substantial outputs.
This assessment was undertaken between Feb-
ruary and December 2008. Each WWF project
was funded to employ a local consultant report-
ing to the local WWF office to prepare a case
study report responding to an analytical frame-
work. The reports covered the background to
TABLE 1 Environmental degradation and disasters that instigated WWF and societal responses
Basin and location Major environmental degradation and
disasters
WWF project
period
WWF project objective/s (as summarized
by the author)
Maner River tributary
of the Godavari River,
India
Water scarcity – an increasing problem in
the region as populations increase and
water resources are extensively exploited.
Access to water is a focus of many
government and community organizations’
programmes.
March 2005–
February
2007
Assess the socio-economic and
environmental costs and benefits of
restoring traditional village water tanks
as an alternative to major infrastructure
schemes to increase water supplies.
Lakes in the central
Yangtze River basin,
China
Floods, drought, pollution, fishery decline –
all increasing problems. Major floods in
1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999 sparked
responses from governments.
2002 to
present
Demonstrate that re-linking floodplain lakes
to the Yangtze River, and promoting more
diverse and flood-adapted livelihood
activities would improve water quality,
biodiversity conservation and the
livelihoods of local people.
Rio Conchos, Mexico Water scarcity – drought from 1994 to 2006
instigated responses from stakeholders.
2002 to
present
Improve the condition of freshwater
ecosystems in the Rio Grande/Bravo basin
by promoting the application of integrated
river basin management.
Rio Sao Joao (Rio de
Janeiro State), Brazil
Pollution, fishery decline, water scarcity. By
1999 eutrophication of water bodies had
largely eliminated the inland fisheries, and
reduced water access and sparked
community demands for rectification.
1999 to
present
Restore the water quality and biodiversity
of water bodies in the Sao Joao region by
promoting the application of integrated river
basin management.
Lower Danube River,
Romania, Bulgaria,
Moldova and the
Ukraine
Floods, pollution both increasing problems.
Major floods in 1998–2002, 2005 and 2006
resulted in demands for more effective
management by governments and
communities.
1992 to
present
Establishment of the Danube River basin
as a model of nature conservation and
community prosperity, including restoration
of freshwater and forestry resources along
the lower Danube.
Great Ruaha River,
Tanzania
Water scarcity – river ceased flowing in the
dry season from 1993 resulting in a 2001
Prime Ministerial commitment to restore
river flows.
2003 to
present
To enable the people of the Great Ruaha
River catchment to plan, manage and utilize
their water and related natural resources
sustainably, and by doing this, alleviate
poverty and improve livelihoods.
196 Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
the work and the outputs and lessons in three
areas: adaptation, livelihoods and conservation.
They were prepared iteratively in consultation
with the author in order to clarify data and
increase consistency between the reports. The
questions that were applied to each of the projects
are detailed in the Annex. The case studies were
then analysed by the author.
The work of these projects involved social and
institutional changes as much as or more than
biophysical and technological interventions.
The measures deployed in these autonomous
adaptation processes can be categorized as:
B Decommissioning or changing the operations
of underperforming infrastructure, like flood
‘protection’ dykes and sluice gates.
B Restoring the ability of the natural environ-
ment to provide ecosystem services, such as
floodwater retention, storing water in aqui-
fers, water purification and fisheries.
B Adopting locally available and small-scale
technologies, such as village water tanks.
B Changing agricultural and aquacultural prac-
tices to more sustainable methods that:
produce fewer pollutants; reuse water, such
as for fish production then irrigation; are
more water efficient; require less inputs;
and secure higher returns for more valued
produce.
B Providing better waste management systems,
especially for sewerage.
B Diversifying local livelihoods into more prof-
itable and less water-dependent enterprises.
B Increasing the incomes derived from natural
commodities, such as fish, to reward produ-
cers adopting more sustainable practices and
increase the resilience of these households.
B Establishing and strengthening local insti-
tutions to facilitate adaptive management
and self-determination, including establish-
ing and enforcing more sustainable behav-
ioural norms for uses of natural resources
such as water.
B Facilitating basin-scale multi-stakeholder insti-
tutions to: establish partnerships; develop
common visions; lead adaptive management;
and connect the local to global measures
needed for more effective adaptation and
sustainability.
B Advocating laws and government program-
mes that facilitate subsidiarity by provid-
ing basin and local institutions with the
mandate and access to resources for adaptive
management.
B Improving connectivity in freshwater ecosys-
tems by applying environmental flows, ensur-
ing wildlife passage through or over water
infrastructure, and restoring riparian habitats.
B Restoring habitats to increase the resilience
of these ecosystems to climate impacts, and
their capacities to support greater populations
of flora and fauna species, especially those
that are threatened or of economic value.
3. Results
Table 2 summarizes the main adaptation, liveli-
hood and conservation benefits to date from the
six projects.
Successful outcomes to date from these auton-
omous adaptation cases can be categorized under
the following:
B Flood retention: increased capacity to safely
retain higher peak flood flows.
B Water security: more reliable access to water in
areas prone to scarcity.
B Pollution reduction: cuts to pollution levels and
the risk that pollution impacts like eutrophi-
cation will be exacerbated by higher tempera-
tures resulting from climate change.
B Livelihoods: diversified income generation
strategies and increased incomes of many par-
ticipants that may increase resilience of com-
munities to climatic events.
B Institutional capacity: established and
strengthened local institutions, increasing
their adaptive management capacities.
B Connectivity: re-linked habitats and popu-
lations of species, enabling greater mobility
and capacity to colonize new habitats that
may be required to survive in a warmer world.
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 197
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
TABLE 2 Summary of key climate adaptation, livelihood and conservation benefits
Project Likely major
climate
change
impacts
Key climate adaptation benefits Key livelihood
benefits
Key ecosystem benefits
Lower
Danube,
eastern
Europe
Increased
flooding
Flood storage increased through
restoration of floodplains. Plan to
restore 2,250 km2. Of this area
14.4% has been or is being restored
Livelihoods diversified Restored 4,430 ha of habitats and
reconnected a 68 km2 lake to the
river
Pollution
exacerbated
Better access to clean
water
Fish and bird populations restored
Biodiversity
impacted
Pollution and the risk of algal
blooms reduced
Ecological services of
EUR500/ha from
restored floodplains
Protected areas expanded by
5,757 km2, including large areas
of floodplains, in Romania
Great
Ruaha
River,
Tanzania
Greater
water
scarcity
Reduced vulnerability to drought Established 20
Community Banks
Flows restored in some places
Biodiversity
impacted
Water Users’ Associations
and other basin institutions
strengthened
Diversified into
livelihoods with
reduced reliance
on water
Water sources and riparian
vegetation restored
Tree felling for charcoal production
reduced
Godavari
tanks,
India
Greater
water
scarcity
Greater surface and ground water
access from restored tanks
Increased agricultural
production,
employment and
incomes
Enhanced habitats for birds in the
tanks
Impacts of
alternative
adaptation
options
Tank management systems
established
Reduced agricultural
inputs
Alternative to environmental damage
from proposed new dam
demonstrated
Programme adopted by the state
government. Alternative to
proposed USD$4 billion dam
demonstrated
Cultural benefits
Yangtze
lakes,
China
Flooding
increased
Restored 450 km2 lakes. Can retain
285 mm3 of flood waters
Improved access to
drinking water
Restored 450 km2 lake habitats, new
60 km2 reserve
Pollution
exacerbated
Pollution and the risk of algal
blooms reduced
Fish resources
increased
Populations of fish, birds and
Yangtze Porpoise increased
Biodiversity
impacted
Government adopted restoration
policies
Diversification of
livelihoods and
increased incomes
Yangtze Forum established for
adaptive management
Continued
198 Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
B Populations and habitats: restored populations
of species and areas of habitat that may be
better able to resist and survive impacts of
severe climatic events.
4. Discussion
Reviewing the outputs from these six case studies,
the following eight overarching lessons for more
effective adaptation processes are identified and
listed in Table 3, together with the most relevant
examples.
Considering these cases and lessons further,
the following issues for effective adaptation are
identified for wider discussion:
4.1. Quantifiable targets
Like many organizations, WWF continually
debates whether more targeted and sophisticated
programmes would achieve more benefits for
people and the environment. In these case
studies, there is little doubt that more
climate-informed and target-driven projects
could achieve more effective interventions. For
example, environmental flow methods are being
applied globally to better define the objectives of
freshwater biodiversity conservation and the
thresholds for the quantity and quality of water
required to achieve them under the assumption
of a stationary, natural hydrological regime.
These methods could be applied to maintain
specific freshwater biodiversity values under con-
ditions of climate change (Anon., 2007). In the
Ruaha and Rio Conchos projects, the generic inter-
ventions to attenuate water scarcity are buying
both time and stakeholder ownership of the devel-
opment of scientifically based, quantitative
environmental flows. This suggests that taking
action to adapt to the most obvious problems
should not wait for more precise information. By
TABLE 2 Continued
Project Likely major
climate
change
impacts
Key climate adaptation benefits Key livelihood
benefits
Key ecosystem benefits
Rio
Conchos,
Mexico
Greater
water
scarcity
Vulnerability to drought reduced More secure access
to water
Conservation of endemic fish
Biodiversity
impacted
Established institution for adaptive
basin management
Increased economic
efficiency in
agriculture
Developing payment for ecological
services and environmental flows
Environment recognized as a user
in the water law
Enhanced livelihoods
of communities in the
headwaters
Rio Sao
Joao,
Brazil
Pollution
exacerbated
Pollution cut by 75%, reducing
algal blooms
Restored 244 km2
coastal lagoons,
rejuvenating tourism
and fishing industries
Restored riparian, floodplain and
lagoon habitats. Riparian corridors
link remnant habitat of a threatened
primate, the Golden Lion Tamarin
Biodiversity
impacted
Establishment of multi-stakeholder,
adaptive, river basin management
institutions
Training and
economic
diversification
River connectivity restoration
planned
Management approach adopted
widely in other basins
Improved water
supply
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 199
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
TABLE 3 Lessons derived from the six case studies
Lesson derived Supporting examples Qualifying examples
1. Local ownership. Participation of local
stakeholders increased the sustainability
and effectiveness of the measures.
Ruaha: Community ownership through Water
Users’ Associations has been essential to
agree, implement and enforce measures
beyond the government’s reach;
Godavari: Villagers contributed two-thirds
of the resources needed for tank restoration
and established local management
institutions;
Rio Conchos: The Inter-institutional Working
Group and work with irrigators and villagers in
the river’s headwaters have sustained major
interventions;
Rio Sao Joao: Establishment of the basin
Consortium, including local governments, has
engaged wide sections of the community and
driven reforms to water management.
Danube: To some extent the
national and international demand
for better flood control has
prevailed in place of local
community ownership of
restoration of the Danube
floodplains, but the absence
of local consent has delayed
progress at a number of sites;
Yangtze: While local people and
national authorities both owned
restoration of the floodplain lakes
for improved environmental
quality and livelihoods, local
institutions do not appear to
support the use of these lakes by
national authorities for flood
management purposes.
2. Immediate benefits. Local stakeholder
support depends on receipt of immediate
benefits; these appeared to engender
support for more challenging measures.
Ruaha: Establishment of Community
Conservation Banks and other livelihood
benefits has underpinned support for
environmental flow assessments;
Yangtze: Enhanced livelihoods at initial sites
has seen support for restoration of additional
floodplain lakes;
Rio Conchos: Initial benefits from more
efficient water use have enabled
consideration of environmental flow
allocations;
Rio Sao Joao: Achievement of initial plans for
reduced pollution and restored fisheries has
led to plans for new measures to restore
riparian corridors and the watershed.
-
3. Multiple benefits. Many freshwater
adaptations to climate change impacts are
practical now, can be scaled up, and had
multiple environmental and socio-economic
benefits.
Danube: Floodplain restoration offers
immediate benefits and could be
incrementally scaled up to manage increased
flood risks;
Ruaha: Watershed restoration activities in half
the districts in the basin delivered benefits,
including increased river flows, and could be
expanded to other districts;
-
Continued
200 Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
TABLE 3 Continued
Lesson derived Supporting examples Qualifying examples
Godavari: Village tank restoration is a cheap
option for increasing water supply and could
be expanded to cover more than 200,000
such tanks in India;
Yangtze: Restoration of 200 km2 floodplain
lakes enhanced livelihoods, environmental
quality and flood control, and could be
expanded to a much larger floodplain area;
Rio Conchos: Watershed restoration and
water efficiency measures have
succeeded locally in reducing vulnerability
to drought and could be scaled up
considerably;
Rio Sao Joao: The institutions established for
water pollution reduction have succeeded on
this problem and are now moving
progressively to address other adaptation
challenges in water and basin
management.
4. Linking local to national to global. The most
effective measures drew strength and linked
institutions and action at different geopolitical
scales.
Danube: Obligations under the European
Union and Danube Convention, national
policies and local action have combined
to initiate, fund and implement floodplain
restoration;
Yangtze: National policies for flood control
and more sustainable water management
enabled provincial and local government
authorities to implement the floodplain lake
restoration measures;
Rio Conchos: Obligations under the border
rivers treaty to deliver water to the USA
and funding from the North American
Development Bank, combined with the need
within Mexico to reduce vulnerability to
drought, resulted in effective water efficiency
measures;
Rio Sao Joao: National and state water laws
provided the mandate for the basin
Consortium and underwrote its funding, which
enabled local institutions to implement
reforms more effectively.
Godavari: The case study of
restoration of 12 village tanks
involved relatively local-scale
actions. Yet this case relied on
international funding in a situation
where state and national
institutions had been ineffective
in facilitating action. Scaling up
application of tank restoration
would require state and possibly
national government support to
succeed.
Continued
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 201
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
TABLE 3 Continued
Lesson derived Supporting examples Qualifying examples
5. Adaptive management. Effective
adaptation was an iterative process over
many years.
Danube: Sequential adoption of stronger
basin agreements, from the Danube
Convention in 1994, Lower Danube Green
Corridor Agreement in 2000 and the EU Water
Framework Directive milestones from 2000 to
2015 have provided renewed impetus for
adaptive management;
Rio Sao Joao: Since its establishment in 1999
the basin Consortium has implemented three
phases of measures, and as the preceding
targets have been met, this has generated
support for new interventions;
Ruaha: To a lesser extent the sequence of
national policies since 1991 and water projects
in this basin are also an example of iterative
processes enhancing awareness of the issues
and options for responses over time.
Godavari: The case study
interventions appear sustainable
after just 2 years. Yet this involved
relatively local-scale actions
applying one technology. It is
likely that an iterative approach
would be required to
incrementally improve local
benefits, such as through tank
watershed conservation, or to
scale up tank restoration through
larger programmes at the state or
national scales.
6. Funding adaptation. Regular funding was
needed to sustain adaptation.
7. Communicating adaptation. The language
and perception of adaptation as new and
complicated appeared to have stymied
engagement of local communities and
governments.
Godavari: Village institutions will collect water
use fees to sustain management of restored
tanks;
Rio Sao Joao: The Consortium was funded
through fees from municipal government
members and local companies. As well, the
head of the Consortium is seconded from the
state government. These resources are used
to leverage additional funding for
management measures.
Godavari, Yangtze and Rio Sao Joao: When
first discussed with programme leaders they
expressed the view that the contradictory and
uncertain scenarios from climate impact
models for these places meant that it was not
possible to define climate change adaptation
measures yet. Additional views expressed
included: different opinions of Chinese
academic and government officials on the
nature of climate change; the need for
vulnerability assessments to precede
adaptation measures; the lack of locally
Ruaha: Although promised in the
national water policy the allocation
of water use fees back to local
management institutions has not
occurred, jeopardizing the ongoing
work of these organizations;
Rio Conchos: State law frustrates
efforts to establish binding
payment for a watershed services
scheme, which would enable
urban dwellers to cross-subsidize
watershed management and
restoration measures.
Danube: The large floods in the
past decade appeared to have
helped key institutions in the basin
agree on the need for floodplain
restoration and a key measure to
manage the impacts of more
frequent flooding due to climate
change;
Continued
202 Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
contrast, in the Yangtze and Danube, the flood-
water retention capacities achieved by the restor-
ation of floodplain sites are known and appear to
be part of larger governmental decisions on the
levels of acceptable flood risk.
4.2. Thresholds of climate impacts
Another key question is whether the resilience
building measures implemented in these projects
would be overwhelmed as climate change
impacts exceed key thresholds. For instance, if
climate change impacts become much more
severe there is a risk that the responses to manage
water scarcity and quality documented in these
projects, successful to date, could be insufficient
to meet the future water needs of people and
the environment. Yet these resilience-building
measures have engaged and enhanced the
capacities of local institutions in adaptive manage-
ment processes (such as with the Water User
Associations and the Community Conservation
Banks in the Great Ruaha) that may provide the
social and institutional resources needed to
respond to greater climate impacts. These actions
to date have bought time to consider whether
more radical measures are required. A recent assess-
ment of the Ruaha basin was undertaken and has
concluded that the improved catchment manage-
ment measures (while highly beneficial in increas-
ing river flows and reducing vulnerability of local
communities to water scarcity in the upper basin)
would not exceed the threshold needed to
provide water flow through a major wetland and
further downstream in the central basin in the
dry season. Consequently the diversion of an
upstream tributary, the Ndembera River, around
the Usangu wetland has been proposed to
provide a base flow to the main stem of the river
(Mwaruvanda et al., 2009). Yet nearly all of the
actions described in these case studies have two
prized qualities: they are ‘no or low regrets’
measures, for instance, in increasing flood reten-
tion capacity, and they can be scaled up consider-
ably to substantially increase resilience at a basin
or even greater scales, such as by restoring more
of the estimated 208,000 village tanks in India.
These case studies also illustrate the need to
seize the impetus for adaptation following
major disasters or severe environmental degra-
dation (Adger et al., 2005, p. 85).
4.3. Motivation and adaptive behaviours
While WWF and local institutions did not
initially conceive any of these projects as compre-
hensive climate change adaptation, the degree to
which adaptation was considered varied between
the projects. For example, the Danube project
explicitly addressed floods as a climate change
impact, while the Rio Sao Joao project had not
thought of climate change until it was raised by
this study. WWF is committed to promoting
climate change adaptation measures globally
TABLE 3 Continued
Lesson derived Supporting examples Qualifying examples
available experts to advise on desirable
measures; and the urgency of reducing
existing threats to sustainable water
management before engaging the
longer-term impacts of climate change.
Rio Conchos: Project leaders
appear to have considered that
the 1994–2006 drought may
represent the sort of climate
change impact to which their
society would need to adapt.
8. Post-disaster reform windows. Adaptation
only followed major disasters or severe
environmental degradation.
All six projects demonstrate this (see Table 1). -
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 203
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
and has provided guidance to staff since at least
2003 (Hansen et al., 2003). The project staff of
WWF and their local institutional partners
include people highly educated in relevant
fields, yet few had focused on climate change.
Why had these local intellectual leaders not
fully considered adaptation needs? What would
mobilize more leaders and their societies to main-
stream adaptation processes?
A response given by staff from three of the
projects when approached to participate in this
research was that insufficient climate change
impact data was available for their river basin
to enable development of targeted actions.
Upon further discussion it appeared that there
were two main reasons why planned climate
adaptation work had not commenced in four of
the six cases. There was a perception that
measures could not commence until climate
change models could supply more specific data
on possible impacts, and a view that the required
expertise and data was not available locally or
nationally. In two cases project staff expressed
the view that, because climate change projections
included a range of contrasting potential out-
comes in terms of rainfall and river inflows, inter-
ventions could be premature. In general, the
option of identifying ‘no and low regrets’ adap-
tation measures had not been explicitly con-
sidered to manage risk and uncertainties. There
was also a commonly held view (with some justi-
fication) that the current, non-climate threats
to the sustainability of the river systems, such as
excessive water diversions and pollution, were
so large and fast-growing that they needed to
be addressed first. Thus most of the project staff
saw the climate change information available to
them as lacking salience (Meinke et al., 2006).
Consequently, proponents of adaptation need
to consider whether the sometimes obscure
methods, jargon, data and expertise around
climate adaptation are a barrier for many societies
to implementation of appropriate measures;
whether shifting from an information deficit to
more participatory approaches would be more
effective in changing behaviour (Burgess et al.,
1998). As a result of participating in this research,
the project staff responded with renewed confi-
dence that the adaptation actions they are
implementing can be enhanced and become
better climate-informed. This suggests that
there are many local institutions that – if direc-
tly engaged in locally relevant ways (Burgess
et al., 1998; Meinke et al., 2006) – will consider
climate change adaptation measures. It was also
clear that many local people and institutions
initially implemented these actions more for the
short-term benefits for livelihood and develop-
ment, and only later came to support the
programmes for their benefits in reducing vulner-
abilities to climatic variability and other environ-
mental hazards. To succeed, proponents need to
link climate adaptation to outcomes of value to
local communities.
4.4. Enhancing livelihoods vs. reducing risks
In terms of whether adaptation outcomes are best
achieved by focusing on social and biophysical
risk reduction or by development to reduce
poverty and enhance livelihoods (Adger, 2006;
Schipper, 2007) compelling evidence emerges
from these projects that a concurrent investment
facilitates more effective change. All the projects
had substantial components focused on enhan-
cing livelihoods as well as other environmental
measures, consistent with WWF’s support for sus-
tainable development. This is well illustrated
by the Great Ruaha and Godavari case studies,
where average incomes were just USD0.80 and
USD1.34 per day, respectively. In the Great
Ruaha, the establishment of Community Conser-
vation Banks enabled diversification into less
water-intensive and more profitable livelihoods
concurrently with the establishment of Water
User Associations to enhance local governance
of water and reduce risks. In the Godavari basin,
capital investment to reduce vulnerability to
water scarcity by expanding village tanks was pro-
vided alongside the establishment of village tank
management committees, the recruitment of
local labourers to maintain the tanks, and
enhancement of agricultural production and
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CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
employment. The prospect of sustainable devel-
opment also appears to have been vital in secur-
ing the support of local and provincial scales of
government, notably in China.
4.5. Centralized infrastructure vs.decentralized interventions
These case studies also highlight the benefits of
focusing on small-scale, decentralized adaptation
measures and increasing societal capacities rather
than investing in more technical infrastructure
(Moench and Stapleton, 2007). In water manage-
ment globally there is a pervasive bias towards
investment in supply-side and centralized water
infrastructure solutions (Molle, 2008). In the God-
avari case, the WWF project suggests that restoring
all the village tanks in the relatively small Maner
River sub-basin at an estimated cost of USD635
million would provide a water storage capacity
(1.764 billion m3 at 3 m depth) (Gujja et al., 2009)
similar to the proposed USD4 billion Polavaram
Dam on the Godavari River (2.130 billion m3)
(Gujja et al., 2006). While not strictly comparable,
because the larger catchment of the dam may see
it divert over 4 times more water (8.130 billion m3
proposed) than the restored tanks, the cost of
tank restoration appears cheaper than the pro-
posed dam. Further, the dam would displace
250,000 people, inundate sites of environmental
and cultural value, and supply a relatively con-
strained region. By contrast with the dam,
restored village tanks would be more widely dis-
tributed to supply the poorest sections of society
and enable local communities to manage their
own water supplies. Similarly, in the cases of
both the Danube and the Yangtze, the physical
limits and costs of raising ever higher flood ‘pro-
tection’ dykes appear to be outweighed by the
potential of greater safety, lower costs and mul-
tiple benefits derived from restoring floodplains.
4.6. Mainstreaming adaptation processes
Better methods for integrating adaptation pro-
cesses into society are also suggested from the
WWF case studies which support Ross and
Dovers’ (2008) proposition that the ‘most
prominent success factors, barriers and gaps that
effect environmental policy integration relate to
leadership, long term embedding of environ-
mental policy integration and implementation
capacity’.
Charismatic local leadership and the estab-
lishment or strengthening of local or basin-
scale institutions appears vital from the six
projects. Local institutions had a key role in
establishing new social norms to effect the
changes in behaviour needed to better manage
water, especially in those societies where the
reach of government is limited, as illustrated
in the Tanzanian, Indian and Brazilian case
studies. At the basin scale, in the most successful
programmes – those in Brazil, Mexico and the
Danube – multi-stakeholder river basin organiz-
ations had been established and showed signs
of the systematic social learning promoted by
Lee (2003). Their work plans had set medium-
term targets that, once achieved, had built confi-
dence and facilitated a virtuous cycle of adaptive
management through new iterations of basin
plans similar to that described by Dovers (2005).
In the case of Sao Joao, for instance, the Sao
Joao Consorcio is implementing the third
phase of their work, having achieved the pol-
lution reduction and other targets of their first
two plans.
In the best cases, a modest level of indepen-
dent income appeared vital to the effectiveness
of local institutions. In Brazil, the Sao Joao
Consorcio secured a reliable income to under-
write a large part of their work from: (a)
municipal government membership fees scaled
according to the population of their jurisdic-
tions, and (b) local company participation
fees. In addition, the state government
seconded a staff member to lead the secretariat
of the consortium. By contrast, in Tanzania
promises by the national government to allo-
cate water user fees to local institutions had
not been implemented, leaving these organiz-
ations dependent on aid funds. In Mexico,
state law prevented the establishment of a
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 205
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
scheme to provide compulsory payments for
environmental services. The social, institutional
and environment-focused interventions studied
had a modest cost and were cheaper than either
identified impacts or alternative options, such
as the dam proposed in India. Upfront invest-
ment was required for necessary infrastructure,
seed capital or loans, and to pay transition
costs. The initial funding came from non-
governmental organizations, development banks
and other aid donors. National governments
often contributed funding only after the
measures had shown the potential to succeed
and, in some situations, were yet to implement
promised reforms to guarantee funding for sub-
national institutions.
This research sought to collect data on the return
on investment of the measures implemented
and proposed from these projects. While this
information is incomplete, an assessment is poss-
ible. In the lower Danube a flood in 2005 killed
34 people and caused EUR396 million (USD625
million) in damages, whereas restoration of a
larger area of floodplains would cost an estimated
EUR20 million based on WWF project experience
and generate ecological services worth EUR50
million per year. In Tanzania, each of the Water
User’s Associations cost USD13–27,000 to estab-
lish, and each Community Conservation Bank
required an initial loan of USD4,000, compared
to a national water budget of USD951 million
from 2008 to 2011. The Maner sub-basin project
to restore 12 village tanks serving 42,000 people
cost WWF USD28,000 with USD75,000 contribu-
ted in kind by local people, and as indicated
earlier, tank restoration appears more cost-
effective than the large dam proposed on the
Godavari River. In the Rio Conchos, an initial
expenditure of USD140 million was made to
reduce irrigation surface water demand, and the
Inter-institutional Working Group is investing
USD3.2–4.4 million per year to manage the
basin more sustainably. These examples demon-
strate that investments in adaptations that
reinforced institutional capacities and strength-
ened environmental resilience can be modest,
may have a substantial return on investment,
and may be cheaper than alternative large-scale
infrastructure projects.
4.7. Adaptation at different scales
Adger et al. (2005) argue that the success of adap-
tation processes at different scales can be judged
by whether they are: (a) effective (are robust in
the face of uncertainty and flexible), (b) efficient
(in terms of costs and benefits), (c) equitable,
and (d) legitimate. The most effective processes
seen in these case studies drew strength and
linked action at different geopolitical scales. Sub-
national governments were enthusiastic partners
in these programmes, apparently motivated by
sustainable development opportunities and the
need to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards.
National laws and resource provision that
support basin- and sub-basin-scale institutions
appeared vital for adaptive management of fresh-
waters, and were a considerable barrier where
they did not exist, or had perverse impacts.
Basin and multilateral treaties were a catalyst for
better river management in trans-boundary situ-
ations, although they could be considered inflex-
ible in terms of their provisions in the event of
climate change, for instance, in specifying par-
ticular water allocations. In the case of the Rio
Conchos, Mexico’s challenge in meeting its
water delivery obligations to the USA ensured
that considerable funding was available for river
management reforms, that the state and national
governments were supportive, and in future it
may be possible to enhance environmental out-
comes through smarter water delivery to the Rio
Grande/Bravo. In the Danube basin the Inter-
national Convention for the Protection of the
Danube River, and the obligations of EU
member states to implement the EU Water Frame-
work Directive and related laws appeared to
be a powerful driver for national law reform in
Bulgaria and Romania. At different scales the
measures adopted in the Danube are robust and
flexible in terms of, for instance, capacity to
increase flood water retention. In each of these
case studies the interventions appeared efficient,
206 Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
with benefits outweighing alternatives, social
equity was improved through enhanced
livelihoods, and legitimacy was established
through extensive local and multi-stakeholder
participation.
4.8. Responses from other practitioners
The Yangtze and Ruaha case studies and the pre-
liminary conclusions of this research were pre-
sented on 21 August 2008 at the Water and
Climate Day 2, Adaptation in Practice session
of the Stockholm World Water Week, along with
the research of four others. Dr Guy Howard, for
the UK Department for International Develop-
ment (Anon., 2008) summarized the main mess-
ages related to this research for more effective
adaptation from the presentations and partici-
pants’ discussion. The importance of climate-
smart local, regional and national water
management institutions was recognized.
Multiple benefits were identified from invest-
ment in ecosystems as adaptation measures
because they can be cheap, scalable and will not
limit future options. It was noted that successful
examples of self-help strategies relied on visible
and relatively immediate socio-economic
returns. The benefits of learning by doing based
on best current knowledge were observed, and
the difficulty of upscaling and mainstreaming
adaptation strategies were noted. It was con-
cluded that funding predictability is just as impor-
tant as the scale of funding for local institutions.
5. Conclusions
The six cases studied in this report show that,
when adaptation measures are considered in the
context of common problems in water manage-
ment, many practical ways of building resilience
to climate change through mainstream pro-
grammes are evident. Many freshwater interven-
tions identified in these projects could be scaled
up and had benefits for peoples’ livelihoods
and for nature conservation: they were ‘no and
low regrets’ measures. Further lessons on
sub-programme detail and policy styles derived
from these case studies that could support suc-
cessful adaptation programmes include the
value of: local ownership; provision of some
immediate benefits; linking local to global
actions; applying adaptive management; consist-
ently funding programmes; better explaining the
opportunities for action; and seizing post-disaster
policy response opportunities.
This research demonstrates that adaptation is
best considered as a pathway that starts by imple-
menting ‘no and low regrets’ measures to address
obvious vulnerabilities that most societies could
undertake with locally available knowledge and
technologies. These small-scale measures can be
scaled up, and they also buy time for thinking
about and gathering the resources needed for sol-
utions to more challenging problems, should
they later emerge. A number of these case
studies exhibit a virtuous cycle where initial, suc-
cessful interventions have generated stakeholder
support and built capacities for progressively
more sophisticated measures that will further
enhance adaptation to climate change. This
pathway could be accelerated in many societies
by investing in the development of expertise in
technical skills and facilitating institutional
development.
Freshwater resources and ecosystems are
under great threat from non-climate-related
pressures, and water managers are focused on
finding solutions to these challenges. The daunt-
ing and global nature of climate change appears
to have further dissuaded many leaders and
institutions from engaging in climate change
adaptations in many of the cases studied. A
common perception that particular expertise,
data and methods are needed appears to have
stalled active consideration of the issue and
opportunities.
This research supports Dovers’ (2009)
propositions that ‘we can go at least halfway to
a believable adaptation policy by implementing
known, well-supported policy and manage-
ment options’ and by ‘normalizing adaptation,
and empowering officials, agencies, local
communities’.
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 207
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Acknowledgements
Dr Kossa Rajabu from WWF Tanzania, who died
in December 2008, contributed to this research.
WWF staff and local consultants who prepared
the case studies assessed in this paper include:
B Danube: Andreas Beckmann, David Strobel,
Suzanne Ebert and Kimberly Chan.
B Ruaha: Japhet Kashaigili, Petro Masolwa and
Kossa Rajabu.
B Godavari: Biksham Gujja, Sraban Dalai, Hajara
Shaik and Vinod Goud.
B Yangtze: Xiubo Yu, Luguang Jiang, Jinxin
Wang, Jiang Zhu, Gang Lei, Limin Wang and
Lifeng Li.
B Sao Joao: Firmino Pereira, Samuel Barreto and
Michael Volcker.
B Conchos: Venancio Trueba, Eugenio Barrios,
Mauricio De la Maza Benignos and Alfredo
Rodrıguez.
This research was sponsored by HSBC Climate
Partnership, and was supported by WWF UK, in
particular: Dave Tickner, Philip Leonard, Tom Le
Quesne and Mica Ruiz. Comments were grate-
fully received from Dr John Matthews, Dr Karen
Hussey and Prof Stephen Dovers, and two
reviewers. This research draws on the work of
many WWF staff, partners and donors whose
contributions are greatly appreciated.
Notes
1. Resilience has been defined as ‘the ability of a social
or ecological system to absorb disturbances while
retaining the same basic structure and ways of func-
tioning, the capacity for self organization, and the
capacity to adapt to stress and change’ (IPCC, 2007).
2. Vulnerability has been defined as ‘the degree to
which a system is susceptible to, and unable to
cope with, adverse effects of climate change, includ-
ing climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is
a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of
climate change and variation to which a system is
exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity’
(IPCC, 2001).
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Annex: Analytical framework
A. Background and overview
Place/river basin
Country
Why it is an example of climate change
adaptation
Summary (of sections B–D):
B Change in climate change resilience
B Change in livelihoods
B Change in conservation status
Key lessons
B What worked
B What did not work well
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 209
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Timeline of processes and WWF and partners’
interventions
Quality of the data. If any of the questions below
could not be answered, why not?
Main actors – their roles and relationships:
B Government agencies: local/provincial or
state/national/multilateral
B Business
B Community
B Multi-stakeholder
What intra- and inter-governmental processes
were used?
What elements made interactions between these
stakeholders positive or negative?
B. Climate change adaptation
1. What was the baseline situation?
2. What are the natural historic, climatic and
hydrologic risks in the area?
3. How do local people cope with these risks
traditionally?
4. What increased risks are forecast with climate
change?
5. What are the project’s climate change adap-
tation outcomes? Can these be quantified?
To what extent are these based on having
more resilient institutions?
6. Were these planned or serendipitous?
7. Were these planned to address a future fore-
cast threat (e.g. potentially larger floods or
greater water scarcity) or were they intended
to incrementally improve management of
an existing problem (e.g. current flood levels
or current water shortages)?
8. Is the improvement in climate change adap-
tation sustainable?
9. Why has the project been successful in
improving climate change adaptation?
B What activities have been carried out at
the macro, meso and micro scales?
B Which formal institutions were in place
that have contributed to a favourable
outcome?
B Which informal institutions were in place
that have contributed to a favourable
outcome?
B What assumptions were made before the
project was implemented and were these
realistic?
B What was the time frame within which
benefits could be measured?
B How were local people, their knowledge
and needs integrated into the project?
B Which partnerships with stakeholders
were established in the project and what
roles did these play?
10. What should be done differently for similar
projects in future?
11. Can the outcomes in the project site compare
to a similar place that was not involved in the
project?
12. What needs to be done to ramp up these
adaptation techniques to the basin scale
and what would it cost?
C. Socio-economics
1. What was the baseline situation?
2. What are the project’s livelihood outcomes?
(a) More income?
(b) Increased well-being?
(c) Reduced vulnerability?
(d) More sustainable use of the natural
resource base?
3. What is the distribution of socio-economic
benefits?
(a) Gender?
(b) Age groups?
(c) Income groups?
(d) Disadvantaged groups (HIV/AIDS, unem-
ployed, disabled, etc)?
4. What would have happened to people’s liveli-
hoods without the project?
5. Is the improvement in livelihoods
sustainable?
6. Why has the project been successful in
improving livelihoods?
B What activities have been carried out at the
macro, meso and micro scales?
210 Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
B Which formal institutionswere inplace that
have contributed to a favourable outcome?
B Which informal institutions were in place
that have contributed to a favourable
outcome?
B What assumptions were made before the
project was implemented and were these
realistic?
B What was the time frame within which
benefits could be measured?
B How were local people, their knowledge
and needs integrated into the project?
B Which partnerships with stakeholders
were established in the project and what
roles did these play?
7. What should be done differently for similar
projects in future?
8. Can you compare the outcomes in the project
site to a similar place that was not involved in
the project?
9. What would be the socio-economic impacts of
business-as-usual and what is the benefit of
magnifying the project to the other relevant
parts of the river/basin? Balance this with
what it would cost to implement these adap-
tation techniques in the above section.
D. Conservation
1. What was the baseline situation?
2. What was the conservation objective/s of
WWF’s intervention/s?
3. What are the project’s environmental
outcomes?
4. Is the improvement in conservation
sustainable?
5. Why has the project been successful in
improving conservation?
B What activities have been carried out at the
macro, meso and micro scales?
B Which formal institutions were in place
that have contributed to a favourable
outcome?
B Which informal institutions were in place
that have contributed to a favourable
outcome?
B What assumptions were made before the
project was implemented and were these
realistic?
B What was the time frame within which
benefits could be measured?
B How were local people, their knowledge
and needs integrated into the project?
B Which partnerships with stakeholders
were established in the project and what
roles did these play?
6. What should be done differently for similar
projects in future?
7. Can you compare the outcomes in the project
site to a similar place that was not involved in
the project?
8. What would be the impact of business-as-
usual and the conservation/ecological benefits
of ramping up to the river/basin scale?
Lessons for climate change adaptation from better management of rivers 211
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube:A climate change adaptation case studySUZANNE EBERT1,*, ORIETA HULEA2 and DAVID STROBEL1
1WWF Danube-Carpathian Programme Office, Mariahilferstrasse 88a/3/9, 1070 Vienna, Austria2WWF Danube-Carpathian Programme – Romania, Mircea Vulcanescu Street No. 109 Sector 1, Bucharest, RO-01 0818 Romania
Conversion of the Danube river floodplains through dyke construction for farming and other development has cut off 95, 75 and28% of the floodplains of the upper Danube, the lower Danube and the Danube delta, respectively. Together with channelization,this has exacerbated flood peaks. Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to bring more frequent flooding and reducedwater quality. In assessing ongoing floodplain restoration work that commenced in 1993, this paper finds the following. (a) Alongthe lower Danube River, restoration of floodplains by decommissioning under-performing flood protection infrastructure hasprovided many benefits. The benefits of these adaptation measures include improved natural capacity to retain and releasefloodwaters and remove pollutants, enhanced biodiversity, and strengthened local economies through diversification of liveli-hoods based on natural resources. (b) The drivers for more successful adaptation measures in the Danube included EUexpansion, legal mechanisms, and local desire to improve livelihoods. The support of non-governmental organizations (WWFand partner organizations) for basin- and regional-level planning for more effective water resource management has also been apowerful driver of policy change in the lower Danube countries.
Keywords: climate change adaptation; Danube; floodplain restoration; floods; Romania; Ukraine
1. Introduction
This paper assesses freshwater climate change
adaptation work in the lower Danube River
basin in Romania and Ukraine, instigated by
WWF, a conservation non-governmental organiz-
ation (NGO). The purpose of this assessment is to
derive lessons on (a) what motivated policy-
makers to act, (b) which factors led to more suc-
cessful climate adaptation, and (c) how the
interventions may be best sustained in coming
decades. We consider that better practices for
adaptation may best be identified from existing
adaptation measures. Hence this study was
undertaken to draw lessons from work that com-
menced in 1992 to restore floodplains and reduce
climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems
and the livelihoods dependent on these
environments.
Falling within the territories of 19 European
states, the 801,463 km2 Danube River basin is
home to 81 million people (ICPDR, 2004). At
2,780 km long, the Danube River (see Figure 1)
has been subject to extensive development and
political change. Based on the gradients of
different sections, the Danube River can be
divided into three sub-regions: the upper basin
from the source to Bratislava in Slovakia, the
middle basin from Bratislava to Iron Gates in
Romania, and the lower basin from Iron Gates
to the Danube Delta on the Black Sea (see
Figure 2). This paper focuses on the lower
Danube basin.
This paper also assesses whether restoration
of natural floodplain integrity – a ‘soft’ adap-
tation – in place of conventional ‘hard’ infra-
structure solutions provides greater benefits
to nature and human livelihoods and more
case study
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 212–219
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0022 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
long-term flexibility in addressing negative
impacts from anthropogenic climate change.
Resilient, healthy habitats such as wetlands and
natural river side arms not only aid biodiversity
conservation, but also enhance the services
these ecosystems supply to local people, such as
better water quality, fish, reeds and timber.
Pollution from agriculture (�50%), cities
(�25%) and industry (�25%) makes the Danube
the largest source of nutrients into the Black
Sea, which suffers from a hypoxic ‘dead zone’
near the estuary (Behrendt, 2008). Restoring river-
ine wetlands may be one means of reducing this
pollution.
Conversion of historical floodplains through
flood protection dykes for agriculture, aquacul-
ture and intensive forestry has cut off 95, 75 and
28% of the floodplains of the upper Danube, the
FIGURE 1 The Danube River basin
Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube 213
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
lower Danube and the Danube delta, respectively
(UNDP/GEF, 1999). The ‘gradient’ of the remain-
ing floodplain reflects actions over the course of
the 20th century. In particular, the lesser degree
of development along the lower Danube in the
communist era left intact large areas of floodplain
forest and other wetland habitats. The excision of
the floodplains, especially upstream, has exacer-
bated flood peaks. In 2005 a flood killed 20
people, displaced 10,000 people, and caused
USD625 million (�EUR444 million) in damages
in Bulgaria (Petrova, 2005). One year later a
flood displaced 15,000 people and inundated
80,000 ha in Romania alone (Shepherd, 2005).
Moreover, floods in Romania have caused an esti-
mated EUR1.66 billion in damages between 1992
and 2005, exceeding the gross national product
(GNP) by 0.6% (Mihailovici, 2006). Climate
change is expected to lead to major changes in
annual and seasonal water availability across
Europe. South-eastern regions (including the
lower Danube region) will be particularly
exposed to an increase in the frequency and
intensity of droughts as well as extreme high
river flows due to an increase in heavy rain
events (Czako and Mnatsakanian, 2008; EEA,
2008). Projections for Romania (Balteanu et al.,
2009) show an expected increase in mean
annual temperature of 2ºC over the next 40
years, as well as significant seasonal variability
of the precipitation regime. Although quantitat-
ive projections of changes in precipitation and
river flows remain uncertain (EEA, 2008),
climate change signals are sufficient to justify
action beyond existing scientific uncertainties.
Along the lower Danube River more frequent
flooding is expected. Reactivation of former wet-
lands and floodplain may increase floodwater
retention and improve water quality, thus bene-
fiting nature and the people of the region.
FIGURE 2 Boundaries of the upper, middle and lower Danube River basin
214 Ebert, Hulea and Strobel
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
2. Methods
WWF commenced work on the Danube in 1992
and promoted the establishment of the Conven-
tion for the Protection of the Danube River
(DRPC, 1994) in 1994 and the European Union
(EU) Water Framework Directive (EC, 2000)
in 2000. Also in 2000, WWF secured agreement
from the heads of state of Bulgaria, Romania,
Moldova and Ukraine to restore 2,236 km2 of
floodplain to form the 9,000 km2 Lower Danube
Green Corridor (or LDGC) (WWF, 2008). The
LDGC is intended to attenuate floods, restore
and protect biodiversity, improve water quality
and enhance local livelihoods.
The projects investigated here are located in
the LDGC area. Pilot projects to demonstrate
the importance of floodplain restoration assessed
in this case study include:
B the 1993–1996 reconnection of the 36.8 km2
Babina and Cernovca polders to the Danube
hydrological regime (i.e. a low-lying tract of
land used for agriculture or fish farming,
usually separated from a nearby body of
water by embankments) in Romania, and
B the re-linking of the 68 km2 Katlabuh Lake to
the river and removal of dykes on the 7.5 km2
Tataru Island in Ukraine from 2005 to 2008.
Restoration of Babina and Cernovca polders was
possible due to cooperation between WWF and
the Danube Delta Research Institute. The
opening of the surrounding dykes and natural
flooding of the polders resulted in a mosaic of
aquatic habitats rich in biodiversity, natural
resources and water retention areas, which in
turn provided benefits to the local communities.
In Ukraine, as part of a partnership between
WWF and the Odessa Oblast Water Management
Board, a sluice was built in the dyke separating
Katlabuh Lake from the Danube River. WWF and
the local forestry unit joined efforts to remove
the surrounding dykes on Tataru Island, allowing
natural flooding to occur to revitalize the wetlands
and the floodplain forest. The island, formerly a
forestry polder uneconomic as a business, now
offers natural spawning and nesting grounds for
fish and birds among other important natural
resources for the local communities. Although
accounting for a small part of the LDGC potential
restoration area, these pilot projects demonstrate
the benefits of restoring lost and degraded
wetlands and provide valuable experience and
lessons for further restoration initiatives.
In 2006, the potential for floodplain restora-
tion and the potential costs and benefits of using
‘soft infrastructure’ for flood protection along
the Danube were assessed by WWF (Schwarz
et al., 2006). The study used GIS data and satellite
images to evaluate floodplain loss along the
Danube. Detailed analyses of four smaller areas
on the lower Danube were used to better quantify
the costs and benefits of floodplain restoration on
flood risk mitigation, including the retention area
and discharge capacity. This 2009 case study was
prepared using an analytical framework as part of
a larger review of freshwater autonomous adap-
tation projects by WWF (see Pittock, 2009).
3. Results
As of 2008, 469 km2 of floodplain – 14.4% of the
LDGC area pledged by the governments in 2000 –
has been restored or is undergoing restoration
(WWF Danube-Carpathian Office, unpublished
data). Although implementation of the full flood-
plain restoration is incomplete, flood control
benefits are already visible. The restored 21 km2
Babina island polder holds 35 million m3 in
floodwaters during significant inundation
events (Marin and Schneider, 1997). These pilot
restoration sites are in the Danube delta where
the flood safety benefits are less obvious than at
sites located further upstream, but they clearly
demonstrate the value of restoring floodplains
to lessen the impacts of flood events. If the 2000
LDGC agreement to restore a total area of
2,236 km2 is fully implemented, potential flood
control benefits would be even larger. Moreover,
the restoration of floodplainsand former side chan-
nels along the entire Danube, not just in the LDGC
area, would provide nearly 2,100 million m3
Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube 215
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
in flood retention capacity and would lower
Danube extreme flood peaks (like the 2006
floods) by 40 cm (Schwarz et al., 2006, p. 5). To
aid decision making by governments on flood-
plain restoration priorities, WWF has identified
potential floodplain restoration sites throughout
the Danube basin that coincide with biodiversity
conservation priorities, whose restoration offers
dual biodiversity conservation and flood control
benefits (Schwarz et al., 2006, p. 30).
From a development perspective, floodplain
restoration appears to enhance local livelihoods.
Reduced vulnerability to floods by restoring the
retention capacity of the floodplain, especially
by reconnecting side arms and widening the
floodplain upstream of settlements, is a major
benefit for communities. Most of the polders tar-
geted for conversion within the Danube delta
were used for intense cropping, an activity that
was neither very appropriate for the local
environmental conditions nor profitable since
the change from centralized economies in the
1990s. Most polders were associated with declin-
ing profits over recent decades due to poor land
management (Staras, 2000). Based on data from
Stiuca et al. (2002), restoration of the Babina
and Cernovca pilot polders in Romania resulted
in a diversification in livelihood strategies
towards fishing, tourism, reed harvesting and
livestock grazing on seasonal pastures, activities
that earn an average USD37 per ha per year
(about USD140,000/year for both polders;
�EUR26 per ha/year and �EUR99,000/year).
From an ecosystem perspective, each hectare of
restored wetland is calculated to produce 34 kg
of commercial-sized fish per year (Stiuca et al.,
2002), and at the 36.8 km2 Babina and Cernovca
polders, the restored fisheries provide jobs for
20–25 people (Staras, 2000). At Katlabuh Lake,
improved water quality will enhance access for
10,000 local residents to drinking and irrigation
water. Natural wetland habitats have returned to
Tataru Island after dykes were removed.
According to Kettunen and ten Brink (2006), a
large-scale calculation of the economic values for
the restored lower Danube estimate the benefits
based on Romanian expert estimations for
nutrient reduction, provision of fish, reeds,
crops, vegetables, animals and tourism at
EUR1,354 per ha/year. Schwarz et al. (2006) esti-
mate economic benefits from nutrient reduction
in floodplains at EUR870 per ha/year. Another
WWF study calculates the value based on pro-
vision of fish, forestry, animal fodder, nutrient
retention as well as recreation and gives an esti-
mate of about EUR383 per ha/year (Gren et al.,
1995). Therefore, based on these highly differing
economic values, an average value was calculated
to be around EUR500 per ha/year (Schwarz et al.,
2006) for provision of ecosystem services for fish-
eries, forestry, animal fodder, nutrient retention
and recreation through floodplain restoration.
Limited data availability and published studies
on the economic value of the current land use in
the floodplain does not allow for effective com-
parison with the values of restored functions
and services of the wetlands. However, recent
assessments in Romania (DDNI, 2008) show an
economic value of EUR360 per ha/year for areas
intensively used for agriculture. If the total
pledged floodplain area in the LDGC were
restored, we estimate the value of the resulting
additional ecosystem services at EUR111.8
million annually (225,000 ha � EUR500/ha).
Restoration efforts in the 9,000 km2 LDGC
also enhanced biodiversity conservation. For
instance, following restoration of the 21 km2
Babina island polder, the number of resident
bird species increased from 34 to 72, and over a
quarter of the water bird species commenced
breeding (Marin and Schneider, 1997).
4. Discussion
Motivations for floodplain and wetland restor-
ation varied among stakeholder groups. Local
communities directly relying on the availability
and quality of natural resources were supportive
of restoration measures likely to improve their
livelihood and bring opportunities to strengthen
local economies.
National governmental authorities undertook
restoration to improve the local ecological
216 Ebert, Hulea and Strobel
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
situation, reduce vulnerability to flooding,
improve water quality and increase local
incomes while reducing the pressures on the
natural areas. NGOs, such as WWF, support res-
toration to promote biodiversity conservation
through habitat improvement, among other
things. National governments are seeking to
fulfil their obligations under EU legislation,
such as the Water Framework Directive and the
Danube River Protection Convention, to adopt
new and more sustainable river management
practices. The expansion of the EU into Eastern
Europe has been one driver for the reform of
river basin management, to promote integrated
water resources management, together with the
obligation of Eastern European countries
(Romania and Bulgaria) to transpose and comply
with EU laws. This reinforces the points Adger
et al. (2005) make on the need for and benefits of
implementation of adaptation measures across
scales.
The floodplain restoration efforts appear to be
sustainable. Reversion to previous exploitative
attitudes towards floodplain habitats is unlikely
in most cases because of the high cost of rebuild-
ing dykes; in most cases the restored floodplains
are designated as protected areas (of national or
European importance), local people’s livelihoods
have improved and the threat from flooding has
lessened. Management costs of the restored flood-
plains are low relative to the hard infrastructure
they replace.
However, political barriers were encountered
during the restoration process. Government
implementation at the national and local levels
of restoration efforts was slower than anticipated.
The appointment of officials and agencies to lead
the work is time-consuming, which exacerbated
the time required to develop national implemen-
tation plans and allocate restoration funds. Most
of the funding for floodplain restoration in the
pilot areas has come from a combination of
local authorities, EU, NGOs and other donor
organizations. In some instances (especially in
the LDGC area) local people do not always
consent to restoration where changes in land
ownership and concession laws have hindered
progress. To reduce these obstacles, WWF has
informed and lobbied stakeholders at local,
national and international levels for floodplain
restoration, signing memorandums of under-
standing and organizing public meetings and
seminars. The organization has also resorted to
providing resources to cover costs ineligible for
governmental funds. In one case WWF provided
up to one-half of total restoration costs for
co-funding a pilot project.
Making use of post-disaster policy windows
has been a key lesson. Governments of countries
affected by the 2005–2006 floods took immediate
actions to develop flood risk mitigation strategies
and action plans that include floodplain restor-
ation as an adaptation measure. For instance,
Romania is currently completing a national
floodplain restoration strategy aimed at reducing
flood risk (DDNI, 2008).
In spite of favourable cost–benefit analyses
(UNDP/GEF, 1999), policymakers have been
slow to promote floodplain restoration as a form
of sustainable flood protection because:
B it is still a relatively new concept in the region
and lacks some governmental commitment;
B changing the land use in the area has socio-
economic implications (most of the land has
been privatized);
B influential stakeholders with interests in
short-term exploitation of the floodplain
exert political pressure; and
B the cost of transitional restoration works and
compensatory measures is high.
Individual actions are constrained by insti-
tutional processes, such as regulatory structures,
property rights, and social norms associated
with rules in use (Adger et al., 2005). This is true
for the examples presented in this case study,
where the success of the interventions depends
highly on the constraints on smaller political
and jurisdictional scales, such as the municipal-
ity, county or concession area.
Persistent work over more than 10 years has
been required to achieve the outcomes to date.
Considerable time and resources for monitoring
Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube 217
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
and assessment in terms of adaptive management
should be major components for other groups
considering similar projects. Linking work at
local, national, basin and European scales has
been critical to achieving change.
There is great potential to scale up restoration
activities from these pilot projects. Based on the
Romanian pilot projects WWF estimates that
dyke removal costs EUR50,000–200,000 per km,
depending on the nature of the dyke wall, plus
compensation for changes in land use (Schwarz
et al., 2006). From this work WWF has calculated
that restoration of four polders covering
1,000 km2 in Romania would cost around
EUR20 million, hold 1,600 million m3 of flood-
waters, and generate ecosystem services worth
EUR50 million per year (Schwarz et al., 2006).
These ecosystem services do not include an esti-
mate of the losses that would result from flooding
if these sites were unrestored, and significantly
these four polders did flood in 2006. Further, res-
toration of the 37 floodplain sites that make up
the LDGC is estimated to cost EUR183 million
(WWF Danube-Carpathian Programme, unpub-
lished data), compared to total damages costing
an estimated EUR400 million on the lower
Danube from the spring 2006 floods (Schwarz
et al., 2006) and likely ecosystem services earn-
ings of EUR111.8 million per year (see above).
Clearly, floodplain restoration is a cost-effective
approach that can be expanded across the
Danube basin. Major factors affecting the
implementation of restoration potential are
weak political and governmental commitment
and unbalanced allocation of financial resources
to infrastructure measures.
The projects described here were only partly
designed to address climate change impacts in
the region. High confidence climate change scen-
arios that would enable managers to adopt
specific countermeasures are not available for
the Danube River basin. An analysis of historical
extremes and regional climate projections, such
as those presented in the recent IPCC Technical
Paper on Climate Change and Water (Bates
et al., 2008), indicates that more frequent and
severe floods are likely. Restoration of floodplains
serves as a ‘no regrets’ form of climate change
adaptation measure by attenuating the impacts
of floods, aiding groundwater recharge that may
maintain water supplies during droughts, and
improving water quality through wetland fil-
tration of pollutants.
5. Conclusions
This assessment of large-scale restoration of
floodplain functions in the lower Danube basin,
partly as a climate change adaptation measure,
showed that the benefits of using soft infrastruc-
ture for multiple purposes outweighed the costs.
Decommissioning underperforming flood pro-
tection dykes and restoring floodplains led to
safer and more effective floodwater retention,
more robust and dependable freshwater ecosys-
tem services, lower infrastructure maintenance
costs and ultimately more sustainable develop-
ment trajectories for these emerging economies.
We contend that these ‘no regrets’ measures
increase resilience of natural systems and local
societies in managing current climate variability
and the likely impacts of further climate
change. Successful restoration of agriculture and
forestry polders have replaced vulnerable mono-
cultures with more diverse and resilient liveli-
hoods based on sustainable ecosystem services,
directly benefiting the tourism, fishing, grazing
and fibre production industries. A number of
lessons are derived from this case study that
may guide adaptation priorities for governments
and aid donors. The development of inter-
national institutions and agreements (e.g. Inter-
national Commission for the Protection of
Danube River – ICPDR, EU Water Framework
Directive) for better water and river management
have been powerful drivers for more sustainable
management of the Danube River. Finally,
increasing awareness of the socio-economic
benefits of floodplain restoration, and the
demonstrated inefficiency of existing flood pro-
tection infrastructure in coping with extreme
climate events, are key factors proven to motivate
policymakers to start integrating climate change
218 Ebert, Hulea and Strobel
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
into national and regional development strat-
egies. We hope that these successes achieved to
date will provide the basis for further adaptive
management, particularly as the impacts from
climate change grow in frequency and severity.
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Floodplain restoration along the lower Danube 219
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Freshwater management and climate changeadaptation: Experiences from the Great Ruaha Rivercatchment in TanzaniaJAPHET J. KASHAIGILI1,*, KOSSA RAJABU2 and PETRO MASOLWA2
1Faculty of Forestry and Nature Conservation, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3013, Morogoro, Tanzania2Ruaha Water Programme, World Wide Fund for Nature – Tanzania Programme Office, P.O. Box 307, Iringa, Tanzania
Adaptation to anthropogenic climate change is becoming vital to freshwater ecosystems and resource management, but climateadaptation can be purposeful or unintentional. This paper presents lessons from an assessment of an autonomous adaptation inthe Great Ruaha River catchment in Tanzania following WWF intervention. The project was designed to address challengesresulting from natural resource use and existing levels of climate variability by changing water resource management. The studyapplied participatory methods and an open-ended questionnaire to collect data. The study found key adaptation benefits,including reduced vulnerability to drought and strengthened local water user associations and other regional institutions. As aresult of the project interventions from 2003 to 2009, rural livelihoods became more profitable and water-sustainable, and locallivelihood strategies were diversified. Regional ecosystems improved as a result of restoring river flows in some rivers, conser-vation of riparian vegetation and halting tree felling for charcoal production. As a result of these changes the communities andecosystems in the Great Ruaha River catchment should be more resilient to emerging climate change impacts, yet the need forfurther physical interventions and institutional reform is identified. The study concludes that strengthening local institutions andcapacity building are fundamental to climate change adaptation and sustainable freshwater management.
Keywords: climate change adaptation; climate vulnerability; freshwater management; Great Ruaha River; institutions;
sustainability
1. Introduction
Freshwater is essential for sustaining both people
and nature, and the consumption of this limited
resource has increased by a factor of 6 since the
beginning of the 20th century, which has
increased water scarcity in many parts of the
world (Obasi, 1997). Now, climate variability
and change is posing another threat to the sus-
tainability of this resource. For example, accord-
ing to Huq et al. (2003), climate change in
sub-Saharan Africa may lead to decreased precipi-
tation in semi-arid to arid parts of Africa.
Adaptation is defined differently among scho-
lars. According to the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) (Bates et al., 2008),
climate change adaptation is defined as:
initiatives and measures to reduce the vulner-
ability of natural and human systems against
actual or expected climate change effects.
Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipat-
ory and reactive, private and public, and auton-
omous and planned.
Bates et al. (2008) define autonomous adap-
tations as:
those that do not constitute a conscious
response to climate stimuli, but result from
changes to meet altered demands, objectives
case study
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 220–228
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0025 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
and expectations which, whilst not deliber-
ately designed to cope with climate change,
may lessen the consequences of that change.
We contend that it is important to learn lessons
from such autonomous adaptations that are wide-
spread in the water sector in order to increase the
effectiveness of planned adaptation measures. As
to water and adaptation, the IPCC states (Kundze-
wicz et al., 2007) ‘adaptation to changing con-
ditions in water availability and demand has
always been at the core of water management’.
Consequently this paper seeks to derive lessons
from autonomous adaptation that has increased
the resilience of a key river catchment and local
communities in Tanzania. Resilience (Bates et al.,
2008) is defined as:
the ability of a social or ecological system to
absorb disturbances while retaining the same
basic structure and ways of functioning, the
capacity for self-organization, and the capacity
to adapt to stress and change.
According to Adger et al. (2005), adaptation
can involve both building adaptive capacity
(thereby increasing the ability of individuals,
groups or organizations to adapt to changes),
and implementing adaptation decisions (i.e.
transforming that capacity into action).
There is increasing international debate
on how best to effectively manage freshwater
and adaptation. First, the debate focuses on
whether poverty reduction or vulnerability
reduction makes for better adaptation (Schipper,
2007). Second, in relation to adaptation across
scales (e.g. Adger et al., 2005), discussion focuses
on identifying scales of action to deliver more
effective adaptation, and how to get actors at
different geopolitical scales to work together
rather than hinder adaptation work. Third,
there is the question of how adaptation measures
can best be integrated into society. For example,
Ross and Dovers (2008) believe that:
the most prominent success factors, barriers
and gaps that affect environmental policy inte-
gration like climate adaptation relate to leader-
ship, long term embedding of environmental
policy integration and implementation
capacity.
Considering that climate change impacts are
already being felt, interventions aimed at redu-
cing negative impacts and risks are required. Irre-
spective of the motivation for adaptation, either
purposeful or unintentional adaptations can gen-
erate short-term or long-term benefits (i.e. Adger
et al., 2005). This paper presents findings from
an assessment of the adaptation lessons from a
WWF project in the Great Ruaha River catchment
(GRRC) in Tanzania that was prepared as one of
six case studies for a larger review (Pittock,
2009). The research looked at autonomous adap-
tation in the freshwater sector to derive lessons on
what motivated the societies to change, which
factors led to more successful adaptation, and
how the interventions may best be sustained.
The findings are intended to contribute to the
global debate on how better to adapt to climate
change.
2. Great Ruaha River catchment and theWWF-Ruaha Water Programme
The Great Ruaha River (GRRC) is a large sub-
catchment of the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania.
The Rufiji is the largest basin out of the nine
hydrological basins in Tanzania, with the drai-
nage area of about 177,000 km2. The GRRC
(Figure 1) covers an area of about 83,970 km2
and is home to about 6 million people. It
contains the Usangu Plains, which lie at an
average elevation of 1,100 m above mean sea
level (amsl), located between longitudes 338000E
and 358000E, and latitudes 88000S and 98300S.
The plains are surrounded by the Poroto, Kipen-
gere and Chunya mountains (Figure 1), with
elevations up to 3000 m amsl. The Usangu
wetlands (Western Utengule and Eastern Ihefu
wetlands), Selous Game Reserve and Ruaha
National Park depend on the waters of the Great
Ruaha River (GRR). These ecosystems are of
both national and international importance as
they are sources of foreign exchange generated
through tourism and sport hunting while some
Experiences from the Great Ruaha River catchment in Tanzania 221
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
of the swamps are designated under the Ramsar
Convention on Wetlands. Furthermore, the
country’s major hydropower plants of Mtera
and Kidatu use the waters of the GRR and
account for about 48.5% (280 MW out of
577 MW) of installed generation capacity con-
nected to the national power grid. In the GRR
headwaters, 46% of the 1.5 million residents
live in poverty. The average income is around
USD0.80 per day and it is an economy largely
based on agriculture.
Since the early 1990s the GRR has experienced
decreased flows. The GRR is normally perennial,
and the successive cessations of dry season flows
since 1993 is unprecedented. Since 1957 rainfall
in the lowland portion of the catchment has
declined, a trend many fear will be exacerbated
by climate change. Furthermore, there has been
a change in land use with larger areas converted
to agriculture (SMUWC, 2001; Kashaigili et al.,
2006). Both the human population and the
area under irrigation have expanded, increasing
the demand for water as well as conflicts among
competing users. Many people in the catchment
are subsistence farmers depending on rain-
fed agriculture. The construction of intakes and
diversions to abstract water from rivers for sup-
plementary irrigation in order to minimize the
risk of crop failure has resulted in the GRR and
its tributaries being severely drained.
FIGURE 1 Map showing drainage patterns, Usangu wetlands, Ruaha National Park and the Usangu Plains within the
GRRC in the Rufiji Basin
222 Kashaigili, Rajabu and Masolwa
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
There are many concerns about the GRR drying
up (Hirji and Davis, 2009). Such concerns insti-
gated Prime Minister Sumaye’s announcement
in 2001 ‘that the government of Tanzania is com-
mitting its support for a programme to ensure
that the GRR has a year round flow by 2010’.
The local concerns mainly arise from the fact
that the human population and their livestock
depend on land, water and other natural
resources available in the catchment to sustain
their livelihoods. Their long-term survival
depends largely on the sustainable management
of the resources of the catchment and on the
maintenance of minimum flows in the rivers
during the dry season (Kashaigili et al., 2005).
The Rufiji Basin Water Office (a government
agency responsible for water resources planning,
conservation of water sources and water-based
ecosystems, protection of water resources, grant-
ing of water rights and conflict resolution) is
handling the new challenges of regulating
demand and supply to efficiently allocate a valu-
able and scarce water resource among competing
users. Concerns at the national level arise from
the fact that the bulk of the water required for
hydroelectric power (HEP) generation at Mtera
and Kidatu hydropower plants has its source in
the GRRC. Dwindling water supplies from the
GRRC, especially during the dry season, nega-
tively affect the existence of important ecosys-
tems such as the Western (Utengule) wetland,
Eastern (Ihefu) wetland and Ruaha National
Park. Another national concern is food security.
Irrigated paddy in Usangu is estimated to
produce about 105,000 tons of paddy (equivalent
to 66,000 tons of rice) per annum, about 14% of
the total annual rice production in Tanzania
(Kadigi et al., 2004). In monetary terms annual
income from the rice crop is USD15.9 million,
which is currently supporting about 30,000 agrar-
ian families in Usangu (Kadigi et al., 2004), with
an average income per family of USD530.95 per
annum. Despite all that, the challenge remains
of how to ensure equitable allocation of available
water resources and improve water productivity,
while strengthening institutions at the grass-
roots level and providing alternative livelihoods,
as well as coping with the pressures of a changing
climate.
By considering the above challenges and con-
cerns, the WWF Tanzania Programme Office1
commenced a project in 2003 to promote inte-
grated and sustainable water use and manage-
ment of natural resources in order to maintain
ecosystem functioning for improved livelihoods.
The overall objective of the project is that by
2010 the people of the GRRC have the capacity
to plan, manage and utilize their water and
related natural resources sustainably and, in so
doing, alleviate poverty and improve livelihoods.
Achievement of sustainable water resource man-
agement in the GRRC is to be achieved through
integrated capacity building and action at
national, catchment, district and community
levels by 2010. It was envisaged that the overall
and specific objectives of the project would be
achieved by ensuring that:
B An Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM)
plan was completed and operational in the
GRRC.
B Local governments and communities effec-
tively participated in water resource manage-
ment in line with the national 2002 Water
Policy.
B Water resources management issues relating
to the decreased flows of the GRR were
addressed and alternative economic activities
that contribute to improved livelihoods were
implemented.
B Local governments and communities were
aware of and understood water resource man-
agement and related environmental issues in
the GRRC.
A key indicator of progress of this project was
identified as the restoration of perennial natural
flows in the GRR.
3. Methods
This research was commissioned by WWF and
undertaken in late 2008 and early 2009, led by
Kashaigili (2008). The study did not assess progress
Experiences from the Great Ruaha River catchment in Tanzania 223
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
against the project’s planned objectives and indi-
cators (above) and instead sought to derive
lessons concerning (unplanned) autonomous
adaptation to climate change. We applied a
largely qualitative analytical framework developed
by Pittock (2009) to assess (1) (unplanned) climate
change adaptation, (2) socio-economic outcomes
and (3) conservation outcomes. The study applied
participatory methods (i.e. focusgroupdiscussions,
direct observation, unstructured interviews) to
elicit relevant information. Focus group discus-
sions were conducted with four Community Con-
servation Banks (COCOBAs) and five Water User
Associations (WUAs) while interviews were con-
ducted with the Rufiji River Basin Office officials,
WUA leaders, District officials and WWF project
implementation staff. Retrospectively, the study
assessed the condition before and after WWF inter-
vention to gain an understanding of the effective-
ness of the freshwater management and other
autonomous adaptation measures and to derive
lessons on factors that helped or hindered their
implementation. The key measures considered in
this project included: the number of established
WUAs and COCOBAs; existence of conflicts; restor-
ation of headwaters and riparian zones; develop-
ment of alternative, more environmental friendly
income-generating activities; training undertaken
on environmental education and entrepreneur-
ship skills; agreements on water scheduling; and
the development of water supply solutions.
4. Results
4.1. Adaptation outcomes
The WWF programme has achieved a number of
climate change adaptation outcomes, although
they were not planned during the design of the
programme. For example, over-dependency on
water to sustain livelihoods has been greatly
reduced as a result of communities being engaged
in fewer water-intensive economic activities.
Likewise, degradation of the catchment has been
reduced by managing the watersheds properly
through reduction of grazing near water sources
and river banks, afforestation, reduction of valley-
bottom (vinyungu) farming and demolition of
houses built near water sources. These interven-
tions were achieved through the establishment
of local WUAs2 and Apex bodies (an organ over-
seeing WUAs’ functions in a watershed) which
set and enforced regulations (bylaws). Through
WWF, eight WUAs out of ten (Table 1) have been
established in eight of the 16 Districts of the
GRRC, and more are in the process of establish-
ment. Moreover, construction of Kangaga Dam
with a capacity of 40,860 m3 at a cost of
USD42,373 has ensured availability of adequate
water for livestock as well as for domestic con-
sumption during the dry season and dry years.
Consequently, people’s vulnerability to the
impacts of drought and low flows in the dry
season has been minimized. However, it is not
easy to quantify the outcomes for the simple
reason that the WWF interventions were not
directly aimed at climate change adaptation. As
such, insufficient indicators were put in place
and monitored in order to quantify the outcomes.
The outcomes are largely based on having well-
organized and trained WUAs, COCOBAs,3
TABLE 1 Water User Associations in the GRRC formed byWWF
Name of Water
User Association
Date established Funding
Mkoji 2001–2003 RBMa
Mswiswi 2005/2006 WWF
Mambi 2008 WWF
Mpolo 2008 WWF
Chimala 2005/2006 WWF
MAMREMAb 2001/2002 SMUWC/
RBWOc
Halali 2004 WWF
Nyando 2004 WWF
Ndembera 2008/2009 WWF
Mtitu 2004/2005 WWF
aEstablished during the River Basin Management Project and alsosupported by RIPARWIN.bMapogoro and Mfumbi Resource Management Association.cEstablished during SMUWC project.
224 Kashaigili, Rajabu and Masolwa
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
committed communities and supportive village,
ward and district governments.
4.2. Livelihood outcomes
Livelihood strategies have diversified from agri-
culture, brewing and charcoal production into
activities requiring less water, notably retailing,
manufacturing clothing and bee-keeping. Secure
water supplies have supported livestock pro-
duction, and fish farming in water storages has
proved particularly profitable. Training 48 rice
farmers in better production practices has seen
some double their yields. Five Farmer Field
Schools specializing in better rice production
techniques have been established. Farmers are
now better managing the application of water to
their paddy fields, from the business-as-usual
condition of around 30 cm depth to around
15–20 cm now, doubling water efficiency. More-
over, farmers now have an agreed growing calen-
dar indicating a start to the growing season,
facilitating improved irrigation scheduling to
reduce transmission losses and avoid diverting
low flows from the rivers. People who joined the
20 COCOBAs established during the project are
now comparatively financially better off. One
COCOBA member said:
Most of our fellow villagers who are not members
of COCOBAs are becoming poorer and leading a
difficult life as compared to COCOBA members.
However, there is room for more people to join
COCOBAs as the groups have opened doors for
more members. Initially, the group membership
was limited to 30 persons only. However, the
groups can now take as many members as is
economically viable and it does not affect the
efficiency and effectiveness of the group (F.
Mwaitegelasye, 2008).
4.3. Environmental outcomes
The conservation of riparian zones and restor-
ation of springs and river flows are of benefit to
biodiversity. Flows have recommenced into the
Ihefu wetlands, and the number of zero flows
downstream into the National Park has been
reduced from almost 3 months per year to less
than a month. There is increased awareness of
sustainable management and use of water and
other catchment resources largely resulting from
interventions by WWF, including the Sustainable
Management of Usangu Wetlands and its Catch-
ment (SMUWC), a DFID-supported study in
1998–2001, and the Raising Irrigation Pro-
ductivity and Releasing Water for Intersectoral
Needs (RIPARWIN), a river-basin management
research project under the support of DFID-KAR
and IWMI. Presently, people who have benefited
from project interventions are no longer involved
in charcoal making because of their understand-
ing of the bylaws that prohibit indiscriminate
felling of trees to make charcoal, and are under-
taking other activities that do not degrade the
environment. A villager from a community that
has implemented these measures says of adjacent
villages that have not:
They are wasting water and they don’t know
how to conserve water and environment.
They grow crops near the water sources, they
still make charcoal, start bush fires to catch
animals, and there are always conflicts on
water use (Z. Mwakyokola, 2008).
5. Discussion
5.1. Motivations for change
Local communities were keen to implement these
adaptations due to their vulnerability to water
scarcity and pollution and their need to
improve their livelihoods to reduce poverty.
Thus, vulnerability has been a catalyst for
people to adapt, and this agrees with the argu-
ment by Schipper (2007) that we should favour
poverty reduction or vulnerability reduction
first for better adaptation. On the other hand,
direct interventions to reduce physical vulner-
ability (e.g. new water storage) have also aided
adaptation (Adger et al., 2005). Therefore it can
Experiences from the Great Ruaha River catchment in Tanzania 225
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
be argued that the two are mutually reinforcing.
For the Tanzanian Government, the project
has attracted resources to implement its water
policy (URT, 2002) in the basin.
5.2. Sustainability and funding
The sustainability of these adaptations, such as
enforcement of water rules, depends on owner-
ship and implementation by the local commu-
nity, which is likely to continue given the
strengthened local institutions and livelihood
benefits derived thus far. This is critical in a devel-
oping country like Tanzania where strong and
more accountable local institutions are essential
to embed sustainable development programmes,
given the limited reach of national institutions.
This case supports the conclusion of Tompkins
and Adger (2004) that community-based man-
agement enhances adaptive capacity by building
networks that are important for coping with
extreme events and by retaining the resilience
of the underpinning ecosystems.
Funding has so far come from WWF and the
EU. There is USD951 million in national and
donor funds held by the Tanzanian Government
for use up to 2011 to support this type of water
sector development nationally. The govern-
ment’s intention to foster this kind of river
basin management through a new water law
and allocation of central funds and fees from
water users to local management institutions
(URT, 2002) is yet to be realized, jeopardizing
the long-term sustainability of these adaptations.
Furthermore, the Tanzanian Government has a
policy of expanding irrigation (URT, 1997),
which if implemented poorly in the GRRC, may
further reduce river flows.
A further sustainability question is whether the
adaptations implemented are sufficient to restore
perennial flows to the GRR to achieve one of the
programme’s main objectives, and whether
these measures may prove insufficient with
further climate change. WWF and colleagues
have recently completed a review of environ-
mental flow assessment for the GRR to determine
the water required to meet particular environ-
mental and social objectives, and options for
achieving them. This concluded that the better
catchment management measures applied,
while highly beneficial in increasing river flows
and reducing vulnerability of local communities
to water scarcity in the upper basin, would not
exceed the threshold needed to pass dry season
water flow through the Usangu wetland and
further downstream. Consequently the diversion
of an upstream tributary, the Ndembera River,
around the wetland has been proposed to
provide a base flow to the GRR’s main stream
(Mwaruvanda et al., 2009). Although the
additional water supply that can be generated
by the catchment restoration appears limited, it
has provided benefits and bought time to con-
sider further adaptation measures, such as the
proposed diversion.
5.3. Barriers and lessons
Work with government agencies locally was ham-
pered as newly trained officers took up better
employment offers elsewhere. Lessons for suc-
cessful adaptation from the programme are: that
seed funding is essential for the transition;
improvements in livelihoods motivates change;
establishing and strengthening local institutions
and making links to basin and national insti-
tutions make this change more sustainable,
while meeting the criteria of Adger et al. (2005)
(effective, efficient, equitable and legitimate).
However, while good progress has been made
locally using foreign funds and the National
Water Policy currently provides legitimacy, the
lack of implementation of national financing
measures for the WUAs is neither effective
nor efficient. Further, there is no evidence of
the processes of the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change influencing governmental
actions in the GRRC.
As outlined above, the measures being
employed by WWF to date are not exhaustive
and new actions will have to be considered. For
example, addressing water scarcity in the
226 Kashaigili, Rajabu and Masolwa
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
catchment requires the understanding of the
whole water balance and not just blue water,
which has been the focus of management inter-
ventions to date. Furthermore, a study is
suggested on how to improve water productivity,
which is one of the key strategies for improving
rain-fed irrigation and at the same time reducing
the downstream impacts.
5.4. Potential to scale up
The adaptation measures implemented so far
were technologically simple and decentralized,
and applied existing knowledge, supporting
Dovers’ (2009) proposition that societies can
make great progress towards climate adaptation
by implementing what is already known. This
approach to adaptive catchment management
could be scaled up, given its modest cost and
the national and donor funds available in Tanza-
nia and other developing countries. For instance,
the measures have been applied in only half of the
16 districts in the GRRC thus far.
6. Conclusions
The inexpensive, grass-roots climate adaptation
measures applied in the Great Ruaha demonstrate
how incremental action to restore ecosystem
functions and better manage natural resources
can increase resilience to water scarcity. It
highlights the importance of strengthening
the capacities of local people and organizations
to improve governance, diversify the local
economy and institute adaptive management
practices. This case also emphasizes the need for
governments to support local organizations
with appropriate mandates and financial inde-
pendence to undertake ongoing adaptive man-
agement. It can therefore be concluded that
strengthening local institutions and building
capacity among others are fundamental to adap-
tation and sustainable freshwater management
and should be the focus for future policy
and interventions. The study also contributes to
an international debate on how to manage
freshwater and adaptation. Thus, as for Schipper
(2007), climate change adaptation will be facili-
tated by a focus on sustainable development
and vulnerability reduction, with an explicit inte-
grated approach that accounts for factors such as
poverty reduction and rural livelihoods.
Acknowledgements
The authors are very grateful to financial support
from WWF-TPO which made this study possible.
Special thanks to the communities under the
Ruaha Water Programme for their cooperation.
We are also very grateful to Jamie Pittock, John
Matthews and anonymous reviewers for com-
ments. This version remains exclusively our
responsibility.
Dr Kossa Rajabu died after this paper was
drafted. We acknowledge his considerable contri-
bution and extend our sympathies to his family.
We can ill afford to lose such talented experts.
Notes
1. The project received financial support from WWF-
UK and the European Union (EU), and worked in
collaboration with the Tanzanian Ministry of
Water and Irrigation (through the Rufiji Basin
Water Office) and the District Councils of Mbarali,
Mbeya Rural, Chunya, Mufindi, Makete, Njombe,
Kilolo and Iringa Rural District.
2. The cost of forming one WUA is around
TSH30,000,000 (�USD24,000). One WUA on
average is composed of 20 villages. WUAs were
trained on water policy and laws, water manage-
ment, integrated water resources management con-
cepts, conflicts management, group management,
data management, banking, leadership, environ-
mental education and preparation of management
plans.
3. The costs of forming one COCOBA is around
TSH12,500,000 (USD10,000).
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228 Kashaigili, Rajabu and Masolwa
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Adapting to climate change in the Godavari River basinof India by restoring traditional water storage systemsBIKSHAM GUJJA1, SRABAN DALAI2, HAJARA SHAIK3 and VINOD GOUD4,*
1Senior Policy Advisor, Global Freshwater Programme, WWF-International, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland2GIS Coordinator, ICRISAT-WWF International Project, Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India3Sociologist and independent consultant, Gland, Switzerland4Project Coordinator, ICRISAT-WWF International Project, Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India
Food, climate and water crises are interrelated and interdependent. Climate change is projected to significantly alter rainfallpatterns, with implications for the annual runoff for the Godavari River basin of the Indian subcontinent. Agriculture, especiallyrain-fed agriculture, will be particularly affected, due to changes such as periodicity and intensity of rainfall. This paper describesfield interventions in 2005–2007 designed to restore traditional water management systems (in the form of water tanks; that is,wetlands embedded in a semi-arid region), with the aim of mitigating the effects of increased climate variability and the frequencyof weather extremes. Our findings suggest that traditional water management methods can be both socially and economicallyeffective in coping with variability in precipitation patterns, decentralizing management institutions, improving crop productivityand increasing groundwater recharge. This approach is preferable to large projects for increasing water storage capacity orexpanding areas under irrigation, which are expensive, and can displace people and degrade ecosystems.
Keywords: climate change; groundwater; restoration; tanks; water productivity
1. Introduction
India’s water needs are expected to grow dramati-
cally by 2050, with demand increasing beyond
current supplies. According to current estimates,
even if agricultural demand per capita does not
increase, domestic demand will increase by 45%
between 2000 and 2050, and total demand will
increase by 65% (NCIWRD, 1999; Planning Com-
mission, 2007). Therefore India needs to secure
additional water supplies if it is to avoid a major
water crisis.
India’s national water management policies
promote integrated water management at the
river-basin level (Palanisami, 2006). However,
implementing such policies is often challenging
or impractical. In India, state governments
control the development and management of
water infrastructure, but many river basins are
shared by more than one state. A further chal-
lenge is that water allocations often exceed the
total mean flow, leading to conflicts between sta-
keholders (Gujja et al., 2006a,b,c).
Climate change is likely to add further com-
plexity to the challenge of water management
in India. The impact of climate change at the
basin level is difficult to predict, but there are
some general predictions about the impact on
water resources (Gosain et al., 2006). Increasing
temperatures could cause significant shifts in
the variability of river runoff, and a 18C increase
in mean annual temperature could result in a
15% reduction in inflows (Cai and Whetton,
2001; Cai and Cowan, 2008).
Efforts to manage water rarely focus on improv-
ing the livelihoods of poor people or conserving
case study
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 229–240
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0020 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
freshwater ecosystems. India is investing heavily
in water infrastructure to improve supplies, but
often grossly overestimates water availability
and fails to allow for increased variability due to
climate change. According to several estimates,
India will need another 120 major storage dams
by 2050 to meet projected water needs
(NCIWRD, 1999; CWC, 2005–2006). Building
additional dams will create conflict, displace
people, degrade ecosystems and increase the
cost of water delivery.
Although methods such as improving effi-
ciency in water use will play an important role
in resolving India’s water problems, it is clear
that it will also be necessary to increase water
availability. The challenge is to devise practical
methods that improve water availability and
meet current demands, while providing enough
water to meet future demand in the context of
uncertainty due to climate change. This paper
looks at the possibility of improving water avail-
ability in the Maner sub-basin by restoring tra-
ditional water tanks (i.e. wetlands embedded in
a semi-arid region), instead of developing new
infrastructure. The sub-basin is a more practical
focus for study than a basin, because all of the sub-
basin’s catchment areas are in the same state:
Andhra Pradesh.
2. Traditional water tanks in the Manersub-basin
People in Andhra Pradesh state have been build-
ing water tanks, known as cheruvu (big tank) or
kunta (small tank), for over 2,000 years, and
there are about 74,000 water tanks across the
state, according to the World Bank (2007). Some
of the water tanks are still functioning more
than 1,200 years after they were built. Water
tanks are multifunctional, and their uses vary
with climate and rainfall. Until recently, tanks
were the main source of drinking water for
humans and livestock. They are also a source of
fish (and thus host a wide range of birds), have
a ceremonial role for local communities, are the
main source of groundwater recharge and have
traditionally been used to manage scarce and
erratic rainfall.
The Maner sub-basin is located in the semi-arid
mid-Godavari River basin (Figure 1), where most
rain falls during the monsoon (June–October).
Mean annual rainfall normally varies from 629 to
1,391 mm, although long-term data show years
of very low rainfall (e.g. 517 mm in 1920 and
598 mm in 1972) and of very high rainfall (e.g.
1,391 mm in 1983) (Mitchell and Jones, 2005).
For agriculture, the total annual rainfall is less
important than its timing and intensity, both
of which are likely to be seriously affected by
climate change (Bates et al., 2008). In the Maner
sub-basin, 38% of the population work in agricul-
ture as farmers and a further 40% are employed in
agricultural services (such as field labour). About
35% of the sub-basin is used for agriculture;
the net cultivated area is 455,000 ha, and
127,000 ha is forest (Figure 2). The sub-basin
also includes 1,761 towns and large villages,
including two district headquarters: Warangal
and Karimnagar (Directorate of Economics and
Statistics, 2003, 2005, 2006–2007).
Irrigation is central to agriculture in the Maner
sub-basin, traditionally through the use of water
tanks. About 44% of the total cultivated area is irri-
gated, of which 22% (74,000 ha) is irrigated using
surface water; 39,000 ha of this area is irrigated
using water tanks, and the remainder is irrigated
by canals and groundwater (which is recharged
through water tanks). The Maner sub-basin is
divided into 24 micro-basins, all of which have
water tanks, and most of which use tank irrigation.
It is difficult to estimate the exact amount of
water used in the Maner sub-basin, but the agri-
cultural water use has been estimated based on
production of major irrigated crops (Table 1).
The total water used for the four major crops is
1,621 million m3. The major crops (rice, maize,
chillies and cotton) account for more than 85%
of the value, production and cultivated area.
Rice is the main irrigated crop; it occupies more
than 46% of the total irrigated area and accounts
for more than 75% of total water used in the
Maner sub-basin. The total water use in irrigated
agriculture is around 2,000 million m3, which
230 Gujja et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
represents about 17% of the total rainwater in the
basin.
In the Maner sub-basin, it will be a major chal-
lenge to adapt to the effects of climate change
and improve land productivity using local water
resources without degrading the ecosystem.
3. Restoration of water storage tanks
Despite their importance, water tanks are declin-
ing in number, size and capacity (Vaidyanathan,
2001). This decline is partly due to changes in
the way that water tanks are managed, which
FIGURE 1 Maner sub-basin
Source: WWF.
FIGURE 2 Percentage of land use in Maner sub-basin districts and Andhra Pradesh
Restoring traditional water storage systems in the Godavari River basin, India 231
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
reflects a change from traditional governance
structures to governance by state government
departments. In the past, particularly before the
Land Reforms Act (Chandra Pal, 1989), poor
people and low-caste communities had little or
no land to irrigate, but they were responsible for
managing the water and cleaning the water
tanks and canals. Clearly it is not desirable or
necessary to recreate these past social conditions
for water tank maintenance. However, it is
important to acknowledge that water tank restor-
ation and management is complex, and must
adapt traditional understanding of the ecosystem
to the socio-political situation of present-day
India. Previous programmes to restore water
tanks have been unsystematic, and have con-
sidered neither the ecosystem nor local
hydrology.
Today, the Maner sub-basin has only 6,234
water tanks, which cover about 5% of the catch-
ment area (Figure 3). On average, there is one
tank for every 600 people. Most water tanks
are small (1–10 ha), although some are large
(.100 ha), and there are also the new lower and
upper Maner reservoirs which span over
6,040 ha. Each hectare of water tank supports
about 5.6 ha of irrigated area (including areas irri-
gated using groundwater).
The primary data sources used in the research
reported here to delineate the watershed, sub-
watersheds and tanks, and to assess the water
TABLE 1 Water consumption by major crops
Crop Litres of water used
per kg produced
Rice 2,656
Maize 450
Cotton 5,300
Chillies 5,300
Source: Hoekstra and Chapagain, 2004.
FIGURE 3 Maner catchment showing micro-basins and major water tanks
Source: WWF.
232 Gujja et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
storage potential of the tanks, were Survey of India
topographic maps at a scale of 1:50,000, multi-
spectral band Landsat thematic mapper satellite
imagery, and digital elevation model. The geo-
graphic information system (GIS) and mapping
software used in this study were ArcGIS 9.x, and
handheld global positioning system for field
sample collection and verification.
The current storage capacity of many of the
water tanks in the Maner sub-basin is far less
than their potential storage capacity, because
many are filled with silt. De-silting the tanks
would greatly increase the overall storage
capacity, providing a more secure water resource
to meet current and future water demands.
If all tanks were de-silted and renovated, would
there be sufficient water through rainfall, particu-
larly during drought years, to fill the renovated
tanks? Average annual rainfall over the basin in
2001–2005 was about 973 mm. This amounts to
about 12 billion m3 of rainwater falling over
the basin. If all the water tanks in the Maner
sub-basin were de-silted to 3 m, they could
store 1.764 billion m3 of rainwater. It could be
increased further to 2.940 billion m3 if the tanks
were dug to an average of 5 m. Thus, the water
storage of the tanks could be one-fourth to one-
sixth of the average rainfall over the basin. In
years when rainfall is too low to fill all the
tanks, groundwater recharge from de-silted
tanks could meet the requirements during that
year. Thus, the Maner sub-basin would have
enough water to fill the de-silted water tanks
without greatly altering river flow.
WWF supported a pilot project to renovate tra-
ditional water tanks in the Maner sub-basin. The
project was implemented by the Warangal-based
nongovernmental organization Modern Archi-
tects for Rural India (MARI) from March 2005 to
February 2007 (WWF-ICRISAT, 2007). The Sali
Vagu micro-basin was the area selected for water
tank restoration (Figure 4). About 20% of the
total irrigated area in the Sali Vagu micro-basin
is irrigated from water tanks and the remainder
is irrigated with groundwater (which depends
on the water tanks for recharge). Twelve tra-
ditional water tanks were selected for de-silting
through community participation methods. The
main objectives of this project were to:
B initiate the field projects to increase the water
storage capacity of selected water tanks by
de-silting;
B demonstrate that improved water manage-
ment can increase the productivity of irri-
gated crops and reduce the dependency on
chemical fertilizers;
B examine whether restoring traditional water
tanks is financially viable compared to major
water infrastructure projects on the same
river basin;
B identify policy changes needed to implement
approaches at the watershed level rather than
undertaking major water infrastructure
projects;
B develop policy tools for promoting large-scale
water tank restoration as an effective, ecologi-
cally sound method of improving water
management without compromising food
security and economic prosperity.
De-silting is the most important aspect of water-
tank restoration: it increases the capacity of the
water tank, provides an organic fertilizer (in the
form of silt), and can provide a source of income
for local people employed to apply the silt to the
fields. The International Crops Research Institute
for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) analysed the
sediment and found that it contained 60–70%
clay, and was rich in organic carbon and minerals.
The project removed 73,000 tonnes of sedi-
ment from the 12 water tanks covering an area
of 11 ha and serving 42,000 people, with direct
costs of INR1.1 million (USD28,000) and indirect
costs (e.g. management) of about INR15
(USD0.30) per tonne.
Some benefits of the project were:
B crop productivity increased by INR5.8 million
per year; the crops with the highest pro-
ductivity increases were groundnut and
maize;
B farmers irrigated about 900 ha more land after
the de-silting project;
Restoring traditional water storage systems in the Godavari River basin, India 233
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
FIGURE 4 Sali Vagu micro-basin
Source: WWF.
234 Gujja et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
B annual productivity of the sub-catchment
increased by INR1.0 million, partly due to
the project;
B groundwater use decreased; partly because
the water tanks provided sufficient water for
irrigation without using groundwater as a
supplement;
B water pump use decreased, saving electricity;
B rural employment improved due to increased
agricultural activity; a survey quantified
this improvement as up to INR500,000
(USD12,000) in additional wages in these tanks;
B net profit from fishing increased by
INR160,000 (USD3,000) per year; this
increase is expected to last for at least 5 years;
B habitat for birds improved, and other ecologi-
cal benefits were observed;
B indirect benefits that could be partly attribu-
ted to de-silting included reduced numbers
of crop pests, decreased use of inorganic
fertilizers, reduced migration to cities, and
improved fodder availability, resulting in
increased milk production.
The financial benefits of the project not only
recovered the project costs but created some
profit. Extensive surveys and observations also
demonstrated that the project had both ecologi-
cal and agricultural benefits. The project used
incentives to mobilize communities to partici-
pate, and the result was a water tank restoration
project based on community effort and available
resources. Engaging the community ensured
that they reaped direct benefits. For example:
B silt was applied to the fields of 884 farmers,
covering an area of 602 ha; most of these
farmers reported increased land productivity
and reduced costs;
B increased area and depth of the water in the
tanks facilitated improved fish production;
B sixteen mounds (islands) of soil were created
in the water tank area to provide safe habitat
for birds; establishing such mounds also
reduced the cost of de-silting;
B the de-silting also provided direct employ-
ment to the rural community, particularly
during the seasons when less agriculture
work was available.
This pilot project has clearly indicated that the
de-silting of tanks on a large scale could result in:
B tangible benefits for crop cultivation and
fisheries;
B indirect benefits, such as increased
B fodder production
B organic manure production
B use of silt to improve soil in agricultural
fields
B domestic water;
B new employment, which decreases migration
to cities;
B significant resolution of water conflicts;
B reduced need for large-scale water infrastruc-
ture projects;
B large-scale restoration of wetlands.
4. Planning for climate change in the Manersub-basin
Climate change is likely to affect water avail-
ability, agricultural productivity, and terrestrial
and aquatic ecosystems in the Maner sub-basin.
However, specific changes are difficult to
predict, so water management strategies must
consider worst-case scenarios and design adaptive
solutions accordingly (Milly et al., 2008).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change projections (IPCC, 2007) for freshwater
resources suggest that climate change will cause:
B variations in periodicity and intensity of
rainfall;
B decreases in water resources in some areas
and increases in others;
B longer periods of dry season flows in rivers.
Quantitative projections of changes in precipi-
tation, river flows and water levels at the river-
basin scale are uncertain, but overall, even in
areas where precipitation is projected to increase,
water resources are likely to become more scarce.
Restoring traditional water storage systems in the Godavari River basin, India 235
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
More research and data analysis are required to
make ‘concrete’ projections, but existing infor-
mation shows that:
B climate change will alter rainfall, soil moist-
ure and river flows in ways that are detrimen-
tal to agriculture, with changing rainfall
patterns disturbing cropping patterns;
B global or continental projections of climate
change-induced variability are possible, but
precise projections at the basin, sub-basin, or
watershed levels will take longer to generate,
or may prove impossible to generate with
high confidence; however, these smaller-
scale areas are where prevention and adap-
tation initiatives must take place;
B estimates and suggestions based on the avail-
able historical data for various regions, com-
bined with more local and long-term data,
can offer some direction when planning and
initiating interventions;
B there are no high-confidence, India-specific
projections of how climate change will affect
water resources, agricultural productivity,
floods and water infrastructure in coming
decades.
Lack of data and high-confidence projections
makes planning difficult for adaptation and eco-
nomic development initiatives, especially with
regard to changing precipitation patterns.
Indian peninsular rivers do not receive inflows
from snow melt and depend entirely on rainfall
which, as previously discussed, is highly variable.
Annual runoff comes from the few days of
intensive rainfall per year. In the Godavari River
basin, the river is dry most years between Decem-
ber and July, with 85% of the discharge occurring
between July and October. The smaller the river
basin, the shorter and more intense the surface
flows. For the Maner sub-basin, downscaled
climate projections indicate that annual runoff
may shift from –7.6% to þ59.9% in coming
decades, with a cross-model average of þ24%
(P.C.D. Milly, pers. commun., February 2008).
Even the increased flow in the Maner sub-basin
may not reduce water shortages or water conflicts,
because the rain may fall in a very short period.
Unless proper adaptive measures are in place,
even increased precipitation and the associated
increased runoff, if any, may not actually make
more water available. To adapt to climate
change, many options need to be explored.
Simply increasing large-scale storage through
big infrastructure projects may not resolve the
water conflicts.
There are already large variations in the Maner
sub-basin flow from year to year (CWC, 2003–
2004; Figure 5). Interestingly, the maximum
annual flow (which occurred in 1983) was 16.5
times the minimum annual flow (which occurred
in 1985), while the rainfall for those years varied
by a factor of 2. Although there is a direct relation
between precipitation and river runoff, often the
intensity and time of rainfall determines river
flow. For example, in 1983, the average rainfall
was 1,391 mm, the total rainfall over the basin
was about 18.2 billion m3 and the outflow was
6.2 billion m3, suggesting that river runoff was
about 34% of total rainfall. This is comparable
FIGURE 5 Variation in annual discharge and rainfall over the Maner sub-basin
236 Gujja et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
to the theoretical calculation of 40% for an
average catchment (Shanmugham and Kanaga-
valli, 2005). However, when rainfall is below
average, the river flow drastically reduces. In
1985, average rainfall was 680 mm, total rainfall
over the basin was about 7.90 billion m3, and
the outflow was 0.38 billion m3, suggesting that
river runoff was just 5% of the total rainfall – far
less than the 14% expected from theoretical cal-
culations. This clearly indicates that, at sub-basin
level, changes in rainfall due to climate change
are likely to result in even more drastic fluctu-
ations in river runoff.
Based on these actual observations and on long-
term data analysis, the following observations
can be made about the relationship between
rainfall and Maner sub-basin discharges:
B when rainfall is between 900 mm and
1,000 mm, the runoff is around 15% of the
rain; in contrast, at 600 mm, the runoff is
less than 5% of rainfall;
B high rainfall (about 1,300 mm) could result
in runoff of more than 34%;
B if rainfall is above 1,000 mm for two consecu-
tive years, the third year’s runoff will be
proportionally higher, possibly due to soil
saturation and reduced evaporation;
B rapid and high rainfall will result in a sudden
increase in runoff, but will not lead to sustain-
able river flows.
The population within the Maner sub-basin is
expected to increase by 45% (to 5.5 million) by
2050, parallelling the projected national increase.
If water consumption increases (NCIWRD, 1999;
Planning Commission, 2007) as estimated in
national level projections (to 735 m3 per capita),
the total water requirement in the Maner sub-basin
would be around 4,000 million m3 – almost
double current estimated water use. While this pre-
diction of demand is on the high side, at least
3,500 million m3 of water will be required, includ-
ing 2,000 million m3 for agriculture. Given the
economic importance of agriculture in the Maner
sub-basin, initiatives that help farmers secure
water supplies and adapt to climate change will
be essential to protect livelihoods.
5. Discussion
The following questions need to be answered to
facilitate water management at the sub-basin
level:
5.1. Can increased water demand be met bymanaging water at the sub-basin level?
Increased water demand can be met, but only
with some radical changes to the existing infra-
structure of traditional water tanks, open wells
and tube wells. More than 80% of the Maner sub-
basin’s 434,000 ha of agricultural land is irrigated
using groundwater, which relies on water tanks
for recharge, so improving maintenance will be
a critical part of protecting declining reserves.
In terms of agricultural productivity, there is
little scope for increasing the net area of cultiva-
tion, so to increase production it will be necessary
to:
B improve water availability to the irrigated
area;
B improve water productivity;
B change cropping patterns, shifting to higher-
value crops.
Renovating and de-silting water tanks would
greatly increase their capacity. If all of the water
tanks in the Maner sub-basin were de-silted to
3 m, they could store 1,764 million m3; if they
were de-silted to 5 m, they could store 2,940 mil-
lion m3. This additional storage could help
increase the water supply to meet demand.
5.2. Could water tanks help to manage theimpacts of climate change?
When planning for climate change, the most
pressing issue may be the threat of extremely
severe droughts. Water tank restoration provides
an opportunity to recharge groundwater during
Restoring traditional water storage systems in the Godavari River basin, India 237
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
high-rainfall years. This water could be used
during times of drought, although droughts
lasting longer than two years would certainly
create severe water shortages. During such
droughts, an existing large storage dam above
the Godavari River basin could be used to fill up
the water tanks, provided the drought does not
span the entire basin and evaporation does not
sap the reservoir. There is clearly a limit to the
amount of water the water tanks could provide
in the face of extreme weather events of long
duration. However, water tank restoration is an
excellent strategy to help manage annual rainfall
fluctuations, to store more water to reduce the
impact of low rainfall, and to reduce the risks of
drought and speed recovery.
5.3. What other options are available forimproving agricultural productivity?
Irrigation improves productivity, but high pro-
ductivity could be achieved using much less
water, such as using methods like ‘system of rice
intensification’ (SRI) (Gujja et al., 2007). WWF
is working with farmers to implement this
method. Results indicate that it is possible to
increase productivity from 2.7 tonnes per ha to
3.5–5 tonnes per ha without increasing the irri-
gated area or water supply. To achieve such
results, new approaches and investments in train-
ing are needed. An added advantage of the SRI
method is that it could reduce methane output
from the rice fields by 50% compared to conven-
tional cultivation through flooded irrigation.
5.4. Is it possible to meet increased waterdemand while improving terrestrial andaquatic ecosystem health?
Being wetlands, water tanks provide significant
habitat for wildlife. De-silting will make water
tanks a more productive ecosystem, improving
fish habitat (and commercial fish production)
and attracting migratory birds, without signifi-
cantly reducing downstream environmental
flows.
5.5. What would be the costs of meetingincreased water demand locally?
All initiatives for improving water supplies must
be affordable and cost-effective. The cost of
removing silt from water tanks is around INR15
per cubic metre, giving a cost of INR25.5 billion
(USD635 million) for 1,700 million m3. The
de-silting process would need to continue for
at least 5 years. A strategic approach towards
improving the traditional water systems could
avoid large-scale water projects (Gujja et al.,
2006c) and also provide direct employment to
rural people.
6. Conclusions
This paper has argued that renovating traditional
water tanks would be a cost-effective, environ-
mentally friendly and socially equitable method
of responding to the existing water crisis, adapt-
ing to climate change and improving wetland
ecosystems in rural India. There are 208,000
village water tanks across India (Vaidyanathan,
2001), meaning that this project could be scaled
up to a national level. In the Maner sub-basin,
which this paper has examined in detail, water
tanks support more than 80% of local water
needs and have the potential to store more
water and efficiently recharge groundwater.
Groundwater resources are likely to increase in
importance, because they can be a tool to
combat the predicted increased frequency and
severity of droughts due to climate change.
Although water tanks are currently used across
the Maner sub-basin, they have become degraded
and are underused.
We suggest that the water demands of the
increasing population can be met by managing
water at the sub-basin level. By investing around
USD100 per capita (USD550 million for the
Maner sub-basin), the water crisis could be sub-
stantially resolved while simultaneously creating
a vibrant rural economy and functional wetlands.
If the sediment from de-silting is used as a fer-
tilizer, investments could be recovered through
238 Gujja et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
increased crop production. Intensification methods
such as SRI could help to meet future cereal
requirement by changing farm practices and
using groundwater resources more effectively,
which might even contribute to the mitigation
of future climate change. Overall, the restoration
of water tanks in the Godavari River basin pre-
sents a unique opportunity to improve water
resources while simultaneously improving the
local economy and ecosystems.
Acknowledgements
We thank Dr P. C. D. Milly for providing the data
on variability of river runoff with climate change
in India. We also thank MARI for providing the
data on its water tank restoration project in Sali
Vagu, funded by the WWF-ICRISAT project.
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Freshwater management and climate changeadaptation: Experiences from the central Yangtzein ChinaXIUBO YU1, LUGUANG JIANG1,*, LIFENG LI2, JINXIN WANG3, LIMIN WANG4,GANG LEI4 and JAMIE PITTOCK5
1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road,
Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China2WWF International, Avenue du Mont-Blanc 27, 1196 Gland, Switzerland3School of Urban and Environmental Science, Xuzhou Normal University, 101 Shanghai Road, Xuzhou 221116, China4WWF China Programme Office, Room 1609 Wen Hua Gong, Beijing Working People’s Culture Palace, Beijing 100006, China5Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
The Yangtze is the largest river basin in China and home to over 400 million people. In recent history, and especially during1950s–1970s, extensive lakes and floodplains were reclaimed as polders for agriculture and rural development. Consequently,the flood retention capacity was decreased, many lakes were disconnected from the main channel of the Yangtze by embank-ments and sluice gates, and eutrophication was common. It is anticipated that there will be a greater frequency of extreme floodsand droughts in the basin according to climate change scenarios. WWF commenced a programme in 2002 in partnership withgovernment agencies and local communities to reconnect three lakes (Zhangdu, Hong and Tian-e-zhou) in Hubei Province to theriver by opening sluice gates seasonally and improving lake management. The resilience of the lake environment to climatechange and the livelihoods of local people were enhanced. The measures assessed here highlight: (a) the need for adaptationprogrammes to concurrently improve livelihoods and reduce exposure to physical risks; (b) the need to build the capacity ofpeople and institutions; and (c) the value of decentralized adaptation as compared with new infrastructure investments.
Keywords: China; climate adaptation; climate change; freshwater management; Yangtze River
1. Introduction
The Yangtze River is the longest river in China
and Asia and the third longest in the world.
Running 6,300 km from the Tibetan Plateau to
the East China Sea, the river system drains an
area of 1,800,000 km2 in 19 provinces of China,
and over 400 million people live in the basin
(Figure 1). Its average annual runoff is about
996 billion m3 (BCM), accounting for about
36.5% of China’s freshwater resource. The
Yangtze River Basin accounts for 40% of China’s
gross domestic product (Yang et al., 2009).
The Yangtze River supports diverse flora and
fauna that are well adapted to constantly chan-
ging water levels and flow; it has some of the
richest biodiversity in Asia with over 340 species
of fish alone. Consequently, WWF designated
the basin as a Global 200 site and committed to
conserve it from the mountain to the sea (WWF,
2007).
Until late last century, the river and its lakes
formed a complex wetland network fulfilling
important ecosystem functions such as serving
as the spawning and feeding grounds for fish
and retaining summer floodwaters. However,
case study
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 241–248
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0023 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
dam and dyke construction in Hubei Province,
which took place on an especially large scale in
the 1950s–1970s, has cut off 1,066 lakes covering
over 2,000 km2 from the Yangtze main stem.
Most of the lake shore area was converted to
polders, where agriculture was developed.
Altogether, the total wetlands area was reduced
by 80% and flood water retention capacity
declined by 75%, or 2.8 billion m3.
The fragmentation of the river–lake wetlands
complex caused the interruption of hydrological,
ecological and geochemical processes. Four major
floods between 1991 and 1998 resulted in thou-
sands of deaths and billions of dollars of direct
economic losses. The lack of hydrological con-
nection between lakes and the Yangtze River
blocked the seasonal migration of fish and fresh-
water cetaceans and reduced the purification
functions of wetlands and lakes. Disconnected
lakes have become highly polluted from agricul-
tural return flows, industrial and domestic dis-
charge, and aquaculture. Recently, higher air
and water temperatures associated with global
climate change have exacerbated eutrophication
and further reduced water quality.
Detecting impacts from climate change is stati-
stically challenging, and circulation models of
projected impacts from climate change do not
have sufficient certainty or resolution to deter-
mine specific shifts of eco-hydrological regime
in the central Yangtze region. Nevertheless, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
reports suggest that the frequency and severity of
extreme weather events is increasing and will con-
tinue to increase in coming decades even if mean
annual precipitation may not shift significantly
(Bates et al., 2008). Recent extreme weather
events have had powerful negative effects on the
hydrology of the river–lakes complex over rela-
tively short periods of time (weeks or months),
but these effects have been sufficiently strong to
have altered sensitive species and ecosystems,
as evidenced by floods in the 1990s, droughts in
2006 in Chongqing Municipality and in 2007
in the Dongting and Poyang lake areas, and
the severe snowstorm in the central and lower
Yangtze basin in January 2008.
This paper describes climate change adaptation
initiatives in the central Yangtze River by WWF
and its partners. This assessment was undertaken
FIGURE 1 Location of the Yangtze River basin; the central Yangtze is shown in the dashed frame
242 Yu et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
using an analytical framework as one of six case
studies fora largerassessmentofautonomousadap-
tation, as reported by Pittock (2009). Here, we
provide an overview of the challenges facing this
portion of the basin, the plan and implementation
process, and the lessons learnt that may be relevant
to other freshwater climate adaptation projects in
the Yangtze, the rest of China, and beyond.
2. Recent climate trends
Air temperature is frequently reported in climate
data for freshwater ecosystems because it often rep-
resents the best quality and most spatially compre-
hensive data. In the Yangtze River basin, the
average annual air temperature ranges from 188Cin the south to 148C in the north, with most
regions experiencing temperatures between
16 and 188C. Mean air temperature in the
Yangtze basin has risen beyond that of the period
1961–1990: in the period 1991–2005 it rose
0.468C and for the period 2001–2005 it rose by
0.718C (Jiang and King, 2004; Jiang et al., 2007).
Precipitation is another important climate vari-
able influencing river inflows. The IPCC suggests
that the timing, amount, form (rain vs. snow)
and intensity of precipitation is shifting in many
regions (Bates et al., 2008). The middle reaches of
the Yangtze are deeply influenced by a monsoon
climate. Precipitation mainly occurs in summer
time. Variation within and between years in the
amount of precipitation is substantial for this
region. Historically, severe flood disasters follow
continuous rain events that span the whole basin.
Between 1960 and 2005, mean annual precipi-
tation for the whole of the Yangtze River basin
was 1126.7 mm. Due to circulation variation
and the impact of topography, temporal and
spatial distribution of rainfall is very uneven,
ranging from a low of 600 mm to a high of
1600 mm in the Poyang Lake (Jiang et al., 2007).
Precipitation patterns are shifting with climate
change over a large region of the basin. Data
from 147 stations during 1960–2005 showed
that the average annual rainfall increased at 93
stations, with a significant increase at 19 stations.
At 54 stations, annual average precipitation
showed a downward trend, with a significant
decrease at eight (Jiang et al., 2007).
3. Projected climate trends
Climate scenarios for the middle reaches of the
Yangtze River basin were simulated based on the
ECHAM5/MPI-OM model by Jiang et al. (2007)
in three IPCC emissions scenarios for the period
of 2001–2050: SRES-A2 (high emissions), SRES-
A1B (moderate emissions) and SRES-B1 (low
emissions). Under all three emissions scenarios,
in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze
River, annual precipitation does not change sig-
nificantly between 2001 and 2050, but the rate
of inter-annual variability increases. This might
cause more extreme climate events in the
Yangtze Basin (Editorial Committee, 2007).
These simulation results should not be taken
as definitive. Other models are likely to produce
different results. Moreover, air temperature
trends are generally treated with much higher
confidence than precipitation or evapotranspira-
tion trends. Yet it is reasonable to conclude that
measures to reduce the impacts of floods and
droughts may substantially aid adaptation to
climate change in the central Yangtze basin.
4. Designing appropriate responses
In our initial assessment, we hypothesized that
the climate resilience of the Yangtze River–lake
complex had been significantly weakened as a
result of the disconnection of the lakes from the
river. In the past these connections were typically
seasonal, with high connectivity during the mon-
soonal floods and low connectivity during the
winter. We postulated that the climate adaptation
capacity of these ecosystems and the livelihoods
of people dependent on their ecosystem services
could be improved by restoring the seasonal eco-
hydrological connections between the lakes and
the Yangtze River.
In 2002 WWF commenced a programme to
reconnect lakes in Hubei province to the
Freshwater management experiences from the central Yangtze in China 243
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Yangtze River by opening the embankment sluice
gates to facilitate more sustainable lake manage-
ment. The programme focused on three lakes:
Zhangdu (40 km2), Hong (348 km2) and
Tian-e-zhou (20 km2). However, restoring connec-
tivity alone was insufficient without addressing
the other human-induced threats to ecosystem
health. We also postulated that helping residents
dependent on freshwater ecosystem services
develop more sustainable livelihoods was a
necessary means of ensuring the long-term
climate-adaptive capacity of the ecosystems, par-
ticularly when average income is just USD1.34
per day (Li et al., 2005). In conjunction with
this work, WWF formed partnerships with gov-
ernment agencies and others to explore potential
solutions and to develop a private–public consen-
sus for more sustainable river basin management.
WWF worked to facilitate the adoption of mech-
anisms and processes that contribute to a long-
term and sustainable approach to manage flood
risk and conserve wetlands, improve livelihoods
and stem the massive loss of biodiversity in the
central Yangtze. In the context of climate
change, these types of actions represent auton-
omous adaptation (Bates et al., 2008). The
programme chose several overlapping goals:
promoting community-based and wise use of wet-
lands, re-linking river–lake connections, and inte-
grating the management network of protected
areas of wetlands at both basin and national
levels. To achieve them, the programme employed
four basic approaches: establishing demonstration
projects to develop best practices, direct policy
advocacy, public education initiatives for resource
users and public schools, and building cooperative
networks between policymakers, resource man-
agers and communities. In particular, it is believed
that success would be more likely if demonstration
sites were established with the close collaboration
on-site of local governments and communities.
5. Programme results and outcomes
Unless otherwise stated, the data cited below is
based on unpublished project data from WWF
China’s Wuhan Project Office, project partners
(especially local government) or contained in an
internal programme assessment report (D’Cruz
and Yu, 2006).
Starting from the summer of 2004, the sluice
gates at the Tian-e-zhou, Zhangdu and Hong
lakes have been reopened seasonally, with
removal or modification of related illegal and une-
conomical aquaculture facilities in the lakes. The
reconnection restored the natural seasonal flood-
ing and enhanced the wetlands’ capacity for
water purification and flood retention. In 2005 in
Zhangdu Lake, 285.6� 106 m3 of flood waters
from the Yangtze were safely stored. Further, we
estimate that more than 5.26 million juvenile
fish of 14 species were able to enter the lake as
part of their seasonal migration. Consequently
fishery production in 2005 increased by more
than 17%.
The success of these changes led to the Anhui
Provincial Government opening the sluice
gates at the Baidang lake (40 km2) from 2006.
Altogether, the approximately 448 km2 of wet-
lands now reconnected to the Yangtze River can
store up to 285 million m3 of floodwaters, redu-
cing vulnerability in downstream areas, although
this has not yet been tested in practice. Cessation
of unsustainable aquaculture, better agricultural
practices and reconnection to the Yangtze River
has reduced pollution levels in these lakes and
improved water quality. Pollution levels fell at
Hong Lake from national pollution level IV (fit
for agricultural use only) to II (drinkable) on
China’s five-point scale. Subsequently, the
Anhui Provincial Government has reconnected
a further eight lakes at Anqing covering 350 km2.
5.1. Policy outcomes
Re-linking the disconnected lakes to the main-
stream of the Yangtze has been included in the
work plan of the local governments in Hubei
and Anhui provinces. The practice has also been
recognized and promoted by the central govern-
ment through the Action Guideline of China
Hydro-biological Resources Cultivation and
244 Yu et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Protection Initiative issued by the China State
Council on February 14, 2006.
With the support of this programme, WWF
with other partner organizations submitted a
policy recommendation report to the State
Council on promoting integrated river basin
management (IRBM) in China in 2004, and
many of their recommendations have been
accepted and implemented across the country
(CCICED, 2004). The biennial Yangtze Forum
was established in 2005 and has met three times
so far to bring together key government depart-
ments and other stakeholders to share perspec-
tives, develop sustainable economic policies,
integrate data, promote adaptation to climate
change and develop a vision for harmonious
management of the entire river.
5.2. Livelihood outcomes
Opening the sluice gate to re-link the lakes with the
Yangtze River restored the seasonal migration of
fish and introduced wild fish fry from the river,
which resulted in the increased catch. For example,
opening the sluice gate at theZhangdu Lake in June
2005 introduced about 5.26 million fry. Six months
later, the catch increased by 17.33% compared to
that in the previous year. Similarly, the catch
increased by 15% in the Baidang Lake.
The programme helped local farmers to develop
sustainable aquaculture by introducing high econ-
omic value fish species and reducing fish feeding
inputs. As a result, income from aquaculture
increased by 30%. The programme also facilitated
the development of certified eco-fish farming of
412 households in Hong Lake, whose income
from fishery increased by 20–30% on average.
To reduce agricultural pollution, the pro-
gramme also supported bamboo eco-farming
among communities around the Zhangdu Lake.
Bamboo farming has not yet increased the local
farmers’ income directly, because harvesting will
only commence in 2009. However, bamboo
farming is listed in the national Grain for Green
Project (a programme to return steep croplands
to forest); farmers receive compensation from the
national government for five years. The compen-
sation is at least the same or even higher than
their income from previous farming practice.
5.3. Environmental outcomes
The programme has restored and protected a
total of over 400 km2 wetland. At Zhangdu Lake,
60 km2 of lake and marshland were designated
as a nature reserve by the Wuhan Municipal
Government. The Hubei Provincial Government
approved a master plan for wetland conservation
in 2006, which committed to protect an
additional 4,500 km2 of wetlands by December
2010. In the Anhui province, in total 800 km2 of
lake benefited from reconnection to the river. To
strengthen the effectiveness of wetland conserva-
tion efforts in the Yangtze River basin, a Wetland
Conservation Network was established in 2007,
which links managers of 17 nature reserves
(12 recently designated) covering 4,500 km2.
Climate adaptation measures are now being pro-
moted by this network.
The ecological condition of the wetlands
has greatly improved. Taking Hong Lake as an
example, the aquatic vegetation has been
restored and many water bird species have
returned to the lake, including the endangered
oriental white stork that abandoned the lake 11
years before. Water quality in the demonstration
sites improved from national Class IV to II (i.e.
suitable for drinking after simple processing). Fur-
thermore, over 80% of fixed fishing nets were
removed, which improved habitat quality and
connectivity. The provincial government has
pledged to remove all fishing nets within two
years from the site.
Wildlife diversity and the population of many
species have increased. Twelve migratory fish
species returned to the lakes. Hong Lake
supported only 100 herons and egrets when pol-
luted, but after restoration 45,000 wintering
water birds and 20,000 breeding birds returned.
Tian-e-zhou Lake is the site of the managed popu-
lations of the threatened Pere David’s Deer and
the Yangtze finless porpoise, with the latter’s
Freshwater management experiences from the central Yangtze in China 245
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
population growing from 24 to 40. Surprisingly,
the ice fish (Pseudolaubuca engraulis) reappeared
after a 20-year absence.
6. Discussion
6.1. Factors for success
Local communities and municipal and provincial
governments were motivated by better access
to high-quality water, diversified local econom-
ies, increased incomes and an improved environ-
ment. The national government agencies were
also motivated by the need to reduce flood risks,
although the use of the reconnected lakes to
store floodwaters is not supported by all local
governments. The programme appears to have
inspired widespread restoration and protection
of many wetland sites by the relevant govern-
ment authorities. The adoption of the new
wetland policies and regulations by the relevant
government agencies aids the sustainability of
these measures. For example, Hubei Provincial
Government resolved to intensify efforts to
protect Hong Lake by allocating RMB73 million
for its restoration and protection during 2006–
2010. Local governments have issued official
documents to maintain seasonal connections
between the lakes and Yangtze River at several
lakes. The operation of the sluice gates in
Tian-e-zhou oxbow and Zhangdu Lake have
been modified to support re-linkage efforts and
the alternative livelihood activities. Technical
expertise has been engaged to help further diver-
sify the alternative livelihood activities, such as
through enhanced fruit production. The skills
training and the increased income deriving
from the new livelihood measures provided
strong incentives for farmers to participate.
However, these successes have not come easily.
Altering flood control measures is controversial
in any society. Demonstrating that adaptations
can work ‘in the field’ was vital to learn by
doing and to secure external support for wider
application at provincial and national scales.
Attentiveness to the needs of governments and
other stakeholders was essential for gaining
support and ownership. In this context the
motivation for local actors to participate in the
programme came from the chance to improve
livelihoods (Schipper, 2007), while national and
provincial agencies were motivated by the poten-
tial to reduce the physical risks of flooding, pol-
lution and biodiversity loss (Adger et al., 2005).
We attribute the programme’s success to:
B Partnerships: Establishing andbuildingstrategic
partnerships with key organizations (including
donors) ensured the successful delivery of the
goal and targets. It was equally, if not more
important, to build capacity within partners
to sustain these successes.
B Demonstrations: Demonstration sites allowed
for attention to be focused on key issues and
to seek practical and commonly agreed sol-
utions, using new and innovative approaches;
they also served as a valuable communi-
cations tool to advance the goal of the
programme.
B Flexibility: The ability of the programme team
to adapt to the needs of the stakeholders in
the face of changing policies and priorities
was a critical factor in ensuring that the out-
comes were useful and sustainable.
B Learning: The proactive ‘learning by doing’
approach adopted by the programme contrib-
uted to organizational learning within WWF
and within the key partner organizations.
B Facilitation: It was important that the pro-
gramme positioned itself strategically in
order to be able to provide a common plat-
form to facilitate discussions between stake-
holders and beneficiaries to develop
consensus-based solutions.
B Communication: It was important to recognize
the role of effective outreach to target audi-
ences to achieve the goals of the programme
and to sustain the outcomes.
B Mainstreaming: It was important to ensure that
the programme’s objectives and interventions
were linked to the government’s policies and
priorities. This allowed the outcomes and
lessons learned to be used to improve policy
246 Yu et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
and practice and ensure support for the pro-
gramme’s goals.
These success factors appear consistent with
the systematic social learning promoted by Lee
(1993) for more sustainable environmental man-
agement. Further, these interventions emphasize
the importance of enhancing the capacities of
people and institutions in undertaking effective
adaptation.
6.2. Magnification
There are hundreds of sluice gates along the
Yangtze River that cut off lakes, so there is con-
siderable potential to scale up this approach.
This approach to Yangtze floodplain restoration
represents a step towards better operation of
existing infrastructure rather than further
engineering-led interventions. It is substantially
decentralized and largely applies existing knowl-
edge. Further lessons and recommendations
based on this programme have been proposed
to national agencies in the Yangtze Conservation
and Development Report 2007 (Yang et al., 2009).
Further, this floodplain restoration strategy offers
an alternative to the maladaptation of cutting
more wetlands off from the river, as is proposed
at Poyang Lake to manage droughts and floods
(Water Resources Department, 2008). All the pro-
blems discussed in this paper for the demon-
stration region are also problems for the broader
middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze, includ-
ing the Poyang and Dongting lakes regions. At the
Yangtze basin level, the programme has provided
case studies that are influencing the policies of
key institutions in river basin management and
climate change adaptation, such as the biennial
Yangtze Forum. The Changjiang (Yangtze) Water
Resources Commission has initiated a basin
master-planning process, which is drawing upon
key lessons from the programme to incorporate
climate change adaptation and wetlands conser-
vation measures.
At the national level, the programme promoted
the adoption of re-linking river and lakes as a key
measure in related policies. These efforts have
influenced other related policy changes at national
level, such as the National Wetland Conservation
Project, the draft National Wetland Conservation
Regulations, the proposed National Natural
Reserve Management Law and the national river
basin planning process that is currently under way.
The programme’s many interventions for
more adaptive river and lake management at the
site, county, provincial, basin and national
scales have been mutually reinforcing; they
have facilitated more effective and efficient
management and ensured equitable outcomes
at both the site level and the legitimacy of the
actions consistent with Adger et al. (2005).
Future challenges include improving cross-sector
policy development and enhancing accountabil-
ity for the implementation of agreed-upon
policies.
7. Conclusions
This case shows that restoring freshwater ecosys-
tems has increased the resilience of the environ-
ment and economy to extreme weather events
and eutrophication, which are predicted to be
exacerbated with climate change. The connec-
tivity between the Yangtze River and its flood-
plain wetlands and lakes has been reinstated.
Assisting local fish farmers to adopt more sustain-
able practices has enhanced their livelihoods and
the environment, and made these communities
less vulnerable to extreme events. Working in
partnership with government agencies has
ensured that these new practices are now main-
streamed into related policies, plans, financing
and routine operations, and facilitated their
adoption in other provinces. These shifts in
behaviour highlight the need to concurrently
improve livelihoods and reduce exposure to
physical disasters that may be exacerbated
by anthropogenic climate change, the need to
build the capacity of people and institutions to
manage changes in behaviour, and the opportu-
nities for decentralized adaptation that does not
rely on new infrastructure investments.
Freshwater management experiences from the central Yangtze in China 247
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Acknowledgements
The WWF-HSBC Yangtze Programme was funded
by HSBC and managed by WWF-UK as part of
their 2002–2006 Investing in Nature Partnership.
The WWF-HSBC Climate Partnership funded this
research. This research draws on the fieldwork of a
considerable number of WWF staff, partners and
donors, who cannot all be named but whose con-
tributions are greatly appreciated.
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248 Yu et al.
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Integrated river basin management in the ConchosRiver basin, Mexico: A case study of freshwater climatechange adaptationJ. EUGENIO BARRIOS1,*, J. ALFREDO RODRIGUEZ-PINEDA2 and MAURICIO DE LA MAZABENIGNOS3
1WWF-Mexico, River Basin Management Program, Avenue Mexico 51, Col Hipodromo-Condesa, Mexico DF, C.P. 06100, Mexico2WWF-Mexico, River Basin Management Program, C. Coronado 1005, Col Centro, Chihuahua, Chih., C.P. 31000, Mexico3WWF-Chihuahuan Desert Program, C. Coronado 1005, Col Centro, Chihuahua, Chih., C.P. 31000, Mexico
In Mexico, due to reduced and unevenly distributed hydrological resources and incipient water management capabilities, climatechange adaptation in the water sector is recognized as an urgent issue. To derive lessons for climate change adaptation, this paperevaluates the results gained after five years of an integrated river basin management (IRBM) programme in the Conchos River innorthern Mexico. Autonomous adaptation measures assessed include: modernization of irrigation practices; pilot sustainablewatershed management projects in the upper basin; development of an environmental flow assessment and a proposal to improvewater allocation; and the creation of the Inter-institutional Working Group as a basin organization. These measures have improvedriver basin management, yet adverse outcomes were also observed, such as impacts of surface water efficiency measures thatwere not managed in conjunction with groundwater. Key adaptation lessons derived include: the importance of multi-stakeholderparticipation in designing and implementing adaptive management measures; the need for significant investment in transfer ofexpertise and capacity building; and the positive effect of linking local, national and international institutions. These results highlightthe need for more investment in ‘soft’ adaptive management in place of infrastructure. In the Rio Conchos, if these ‘no regrets’adaptation measures are consolidated in the following years, they will serve as a foundation to develop planned and more effectiveclimate change adaptation programmes, and enhance institutional, environmental and societal resilience.
Keywords: adaptation; basin; climate change; integrated river basin management; river; water
1. Introduction
Beginning in 2004, the alliance between WWF
and the Gonzalo Rio Arronte Foundation
(WWF-FGRA) commenced an integrated river
basin management (IRBM) strategy in three
Mexican river basins: the Conchos River in the
state of Chihuahua, the Copalita-Zimatan-
Huatulco Rivers in the state of Oaxaca, and the
San Pedro-Mezquital River in the states of
Durango and Nayarit. The programme aims to
improve water management in order to maximize
the economic and social benefits derived from
water resources in an equitable manner, while at
the same time preserving and restoring fresh-
water ecosystems.
Water scarcity already impacts on large por-
tions of Mexico, especially in the arid north
where annual water availability per person is
only 1,750 m3 compared to the national mean
of 4,416 m3/person/year (CONAGUA (Comision
Nacional del Agua), 2007). This unbalanced
hydrological distribution jeopardizes the social
and economic development of approximately
60% of Mexican territory and 77% of the
Mexican population.
case study
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 249–260
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0024 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
Climate change forecasts predict that there will
be further impacts on water resources in Mexico.
For example, less runoff and more frequent
droughts are expected in the arid north. Further-
more, as in other parts of the world, demand for
consumptive water is expected to exceed supply,
partly as a result of the impacts of global
warming on water supplies up to 2025 (Voros-
marty et al., 2000). Consequently, Mexico needs
to develop effective climate change adaptations,
particularly to cope with the exacerbation of
water scarcity.
This paper assesses the water sector adaptation
implemented in the Rio Conchos basin. The
authors consider that this sort of autonomous
adaptation in the water sector (Kundzewicz
et al., 2007; Bates et al., 2008) holds lessons that
can aid the design of more effective climate
change adaptation programmes. This case study
was prepared as part of a larger review of fresh-
water autonomous adaptation projects by WWF,
which makes up this volume.
The Conchos River basin is one of the most
important basins in northern Mexico, draining
an area of 67,000 km2. It comprises 14% of
the binational (Mexico–USA) Rio Bravo/Rio
Grande1 basin, which has a catchment area in
Mexico of 226,280 km2 and annual runoff of
6,177 million m3/year; one-third of this volume
(2,553 million m3/year) is provided by the
Conchos River tributary. The Conchos River orig-
inates in the Sierra Madre Occidental, locally
known as Sierra Tarahumara, at a mean altitude
of 2,300 m above sea level, and makes a con-
fluence with the Rio Grande/Bravo at the US–
Mexican border (Figure 1). The river and its
tributaries are regulated by seven main reservoirs
with a total capacity of 3,654 million m3.
Annual precipitation in the basin ranges from
700 mm in the upper portion to 250 mm in the
lower portion. Precipitation predictions for the
next 100 years indicate a slight increment in rain-
fall in the study area (Hadley Centre, 2005),
although this increase will be insignificant due to
the increase in air temperature and evaporation,
and soil water deficit increments (Raynal-
Villasenor and Rodrıguez-Pineda, 2008). In
addition to the low precipitation values, the basin
is prone to long periods of drought, such as the
most recent, which extended from 1993 to 2005
(Munoz et al., 2006; Reyes-Gomez et al., 2006).
2. Water availability and use
Historical basin runoff is 2,244.7 million m3; 44%
of this volume is produced in the upper basin
(985.7 million m3) (DOF, 2008), the Sierra Tara-
humara, and feeds the Boquilla dam – the main
source of water for the Delicias Irrigation District
and the Conchos River basin (Munoz, 2007).
Water scarcity is the main threat to life in the
Chihuahua Desert. Since the 19th century, the
construction of irrigation projects and dams for
agriculture has reduced hydrological variability;
however, these adaptations were challenged by
the 1993–2005 drought, which reduced river
inflows to 25% of the historical mean over the
last 60 years. In 1999, the Rio Grande did not
reach the Gulf of Mexico for the first time in
recorded history.
In 2004, when the longest measured drought
broke (Reyes-Gomez et al., 2006), the Conchos
River surface water availability reached a normal
value of 1,679 million m3 allocated to consump-
tive uses that was distributed as follows:
1,648 million m3 (98%) for irrigated agriculture,
23 million m3 (1.4%) for domestic use, 3 mil-
lion m3 (0.2%) for industry and 5 million m3
(0.4%) for other uses. For non-consumptive
uses, a volume of 2,311 million m3 was used for
hydroelectric facilities. These values can be com-
pared to those of 1995, at the beginning of the
drought, when agricultural water use decreased
to only 315 million m3 (CONAGUA, 2007,
2008a), and also to the additional 432 million m3
that Mexico is obliged to deliver to the USA from
the Rio Conchos under the 1944 water treaty
(Water Treaty, 1944).
250 Barrios, Rodrıguez-Pineda and De la Maza
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
FIGURE 1 The Conchos River basin area, Mexico
Integrated river basin management in the Conchos River basin, Mexico 251
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
The basin consists of three irrigation districts. The
DR-005 Delicias covers 81% of the total irrigated
area (i.e. 88,000 ha and 12,000 farmers). Likewise,
it is allocated 83% of the basin’s total water
volume (1,132 million m3/yr) in surface water
rights. It represents by far the greatest impact on
water extraction in the Conchos River
(CONAGUA, 1997).
The Jimenez–Camargo, Camargo–Delicias,
Meoqui–Delicias and the Aldama–San Diego
aquifers are the main groundwater sources for
extensive agricultural areas and for urban uses.
Of these, the Jimenez–Camargo and Meoqui–
Delicias are overexploited at respective rates of
1.50 and 1.56 times the estimated natural
recharge (CONAGUA, 2007). These hydrogeolo-
gical basins, located under the main arteries of
the Conchos, Florido and San Pedro Rivers, need
to be managed to guarantee base water flows
and also as future underground water storage to
avoid greater evaporative losses due to climate
change.
Based on the air temperature increments fore-
cast by the Hadley Centre (2005) and the IPCC
(2007), Raynal-Villasenor and Rodrıguez-Pineda
(2008) developed evaporation and moisture
deficit scenarios. Results show that potential
evaporation will increase by 2.0% to 7.3%, while
the moisture deficit will increase by 2.4% to
11.3% as air temperature increases by 1 8C to
3 8C over the next 30 and 100 years, respectively.
3. Methods
WWF’s intervention in the Conchos River is part of
the Chihuahuan Desert Conservation Plan and the
WWF Mexico freshwater conservation strategy.
It is focused on implementing an IRBM model
to conserve freshwater ecosystems; working with
governments, the private sector, local commu-
nities, and non-governmental organizations; and
implementing demonstration projects for the sus-
tainable use of water.
The project is being implemented through four
main strategies:
B Recovering freshwater ecosystem functions
through an environmental flow allocation,
which is water that is needed for the
environment.
B Enhanced river basin governance through
river basin councils and public participation.
B Small-scale replicable projects to demonstrate
rational water usage and natural resources
management that can provide specific
support to enhance living conditions in
rural communities.
B Public outreach and educational activities
aimed at creating awareness of water scarcity,
water values, and the role of water as a part of
the environment, as well as communicating
lessons learned from the project.
After five years of implementation, this paper
reviews the factors that aided or hindered the
WWF-FGRA programme so that lessons from
past and current water management experiences
may serve as a foundation upon which to
develop more reliable climate change adaptation
policies and practices. As stated by several
authors, water management involves adaptation,
and there is a lot to be learned from autonomous
adaptation (as undertaken in the Conchos River)
for enhancing adaptation to climate change
(Kundzewicz et al., 2007; Bates et al., 2008).
4. Results
The outcomes from the four major WWF insti-
gated interventions that form the IRBM model
in the Rio Conchos from 2004–2009 are
described below.
4.1. Environmental flows as an IRBM adaptivemanagement tool
The current water management paradigm in
Mexico has promoted total extraction of water
for consumptive uses. The proposal in the Rio
Conchos to set up an environmental flow is
focused on defining a new paradigm in which
252 Barrios, Rodrıguez-Pineda and De la Maza
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
water needed for the environment – both tem-
porally and spatially – becomes a limit on water
extraction in order to foster long-term sustain-
ability. Furthermore, this type of ecosystem-based
approach was anticipated to increase the resili-
ence of the environment and the local society to
the impacts of climate change.
The integration of environmental flows under
scarcity conditions in arid regions, such as the
Rio Conchosbasin, raises manyscientific, adminis-
trative, engineering and ideological challenges.
First, (a) a scientific-based analysis is required to
determine the quantity and quality of water that
the river needs, as well as when it is required, in
order to maintain ecosystem functions; (b) water
administration must be modified to reallocate the
water rights of current users; (c) hydraulic infra-
structure must be operated under new rules to
resemble natural flows; and (d) water users must
understand that a flowing river is not a waste of
water but rather part of a healthy water basin.
This is a new paradigm for water management
that, although recognized in the Mexican National
Water Law of 1992, has not yet been implemented.
The Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) for
the Conchos River was a useful process to pro-
pose an ecosystem approach to water manage-
ment for key stakeholders. It has also provided a
mechanism to integrate previously fragmented
and poorly accessible information. For instance,
hydrological information was recovered from the
Mexican National Water Agency’s (CONAGUA)
archives to form a comprehensive hydrological
database. WWF, along with partners including
the University of Texas, used this database to
develop the water demand and supply model for
the Conchos River using the Water Evaluation
and Planning System (WEAP) (Patino-Gomez
et al., 2007, 2008). This model is a key tool for
developing water management scenarios based
on the predicted inflow variations that occurred
during the last drought, and for the prediction of
further variations due to climate change.
An unexpected benefit arising from this
improved information system is its application
to flood management. Melchor Lopez (pers.
commun., 2007), a specialist from CONAGUA
in the Chihuahua Office, states that the EFA
hydrological and climate database was an essen-
tial tool used to safely operate Las Virgenes dam
when it was subject to an extreme precipitation
event in 2007.
As a part of the EFA process, ecological analy-
ses were made based on habitat assessments
and biological indicators (invertebrates, macro-
invertebrates and riparian vegetation). The His-
torical Biological Index (HBI) and the Index of
Biological Integrity (IBI) are now measured at 21
sites every two years, and are part of the monitoring
system (Contreras-Balderas et al., 2005). All of this
information was used by a group of experts to
develop the EFA by applying the Building Block
Methodology (BBM) (King et al., 2000). It is recog-
nized as one of the most complete EFAs ever
performed in Mexico, and it has been used as a
model for other basins where WWF is working in
Mexico and for the development of national stan-
dards and regulations. The EFA is being proposed
as a strategy aimed at achieving the sustainable
use of water in the basin by the year 2030. The strat-
egy sets yearly goals to recover the currently over-
allocated 438 million m3 deficit of water, as recog-
nized by CONAGUA (pers. commun., Lopez,
2008). This water volume will represent a sustain-
able extraction in the basin for the recovery and
conservation of river ecosystems, and will assist
compliance with the water deliveries under the
Rio Bravo/Grande international treaty (Inter-
national Boundary and Water Commission/Comi-
sion Internacional de Lımites y Aguas – IBWC/
CILA, 2009) – from which one-third of the total
water volume goes to the USA and two-thirds
goes to the Mexican states in the lower part of the
basin (Trueba and Goicochea, 2008).
4.2. Agricultural modernization
After the first year of drought in 1994, the absence
of rainfall resulted in conflict between the farmers
Integrated river basin management in the Conchos River basin, Mexico 253
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
and water authorities, who decided not to use the
water stored in the main reservoirs since there
was not enough water for all users. As a result,
8,000 ha of pecan trees were lost, as well as thou-
sands of hectares of alfalfa and other perennial
crops (Chavez, 2007). Thereafter, in the second
and subsequent years, the Mexican farmers and
water and agricultural authorities worked
together in order to maintain or recover irrigated
agriculture and to deliver the required amount of
water to the Rio Bravo basin and the USA.
Informed by a WWF assessment document
(WWF, 2002), the government increased agricul-
tural water efficiency from 44 to 66% through
the implementation of more efficient irrigation
techniques in the Delicias irrigation district
(CONAGUA, 2006, 2008b). Water demand man-
agement works were undertaken with an invest-
ment of US$140 million from the North
American Development Bank, to assist Mexico
to meet the downstream water deliveries required
to fulfil its treaty obligations with the USA. This
investment was used to reduce irrigation water
transmission losses by piping and lining earthen
channels and by increasing the efficiency of
water application in the fields. In addition, a
number of water licences were bought back on a
voluntary basis and retired, thereby reducing irri-
gation water demand and increasing the
reliability of the remaining allocations and the
viability of the farmers concerned.
Changes from low- to high-efficiency irrigation
practices and techniques have reduced the water
volume per hectare for the main crops, as
shown in Table 1. While good results were
achieved, some problems arose, one of which
was related to groundwater sources. Initially
groundwater extraction was not capped and, as
surface water allocations contracted, this resulted
in the displacement of water extraction to the
aquifers. Based on this experience, it has
become clear to the farmers that both surface
and groundwater must be jointly managed in
order to reduce their vulnerability to water
scarcity.
In 2008 it was said that the local farmers and auth-
orities had achieved success, because Mexico had
complied with the international water treaty with
the USA by delivering the required water to the
Rio Bravo (IBWC/CILA, 2009). During this
process, farmers had to drastically change how
they used water in order to produce the same –
or an even greater – quantity of crops using less
water. Thus the modernization process has
resulted in huge changes in the way farmers
think about water, the introduction of modern
techniques and changes in water resources
administration aimed at a more equitable distri-
bution of water among all users. Furthermore,
the drought conditions have made people think
about the role that forest and soil conservation
plays in river basin management. As a result,
farmers and state institutions are recognizing
the importance of the upper basin, where the
most significant volume of water originates, and
the key role of soil conservation and reforestation
in the watershed.
4.3. River basin governance
The Conchos River Commission was created in
1999 as a part of the Rio Bravo Basin Council
under federal water law. However, it has not
been active, and its membership is legally
restricted to water rights owners having a water
TABLE 1 Irrigation efficiencies before and aftermodernization
Crop Irrigation volume (m3/ha) Volume
reduction (%)Before
modernization
After
modernization
Pecans 12.1 8 34
Alfalfa 12.9 9 30
Onions 10.6 7.5 29
Cotton 8.3 6.2 25
Peppers 13.1 7.5 43
Source: Chavez, 2007.
254 Barrios, Rodrıguez-Pineda and De la Maza
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
concession, thereby limiting stakeholder partici-
pation. In 2004, WWF created an alternative
organization called the Inter-institutional
Working Group (GIT), which has become an inde-
pendent forum for all stakeholders interested in
the Rio Conchos, whether institutions, groups
or individuals. The GIT was officially recognized
by the Government of Chihuahua in 2005
when a collaborative inter-institutional agree-
ment was signed with WWF. The GIT includes
governmentrepresentatives,waterusers,universi-
ties, indigenous communities, non-governmen-
tal organizations (NGOs) and representatives of
economic sectors. The group has developed a
river basin management plan that has been allo-
cated nearly USD8 million in investments from
federal and state government programmes as a
result of collaboration between public insti-
tutions of the three levels of government (local,
state and federal) in the watershed. Since the
start of the programme, the GIT has carried out
65 activities with an investment of close to
USD3.2 million in 2005, and 60 activities with
an expenditure estimated at USD4.4 million in
2006. Currently, CONAGUA (2008a) is taking
advantage of this process to promote the reactiva-
tion of the Rio Conchos River Basin Commission
among water users; however the GIT, as a multi-
stakeholder organization rather than an exclusive
water user organization, is challenging the
current scope of the river basin commissions
defined by the National Water Law.
The creation of the GIT as an informal insti-
tution has been one of the major successes in
the IRBM strategy. Some of the key elements of
this success are: (a) the promotion of the basin
concept as a geographical area that depends on
the same water source, which is not familiar to
the average person, as shown by a survey in
which 80% of the people in the main Rio
Conchos cities does not know they were part of
the basin (WWF, 2004); (b) a forum not owned
by any one organization, at which government
agencies can present, refine and gain support for
their programmes; and (c) participation of a
broad range of stakeholders in developing a
common vision for the basin and implementing
projects to achieve this vision.
4.4. Demonstration projects to support localcommunities
Indigenous communities made up of Raramuris,
Tepehuano, Pima and Guarijo groups live in
the upper part of the basin, known as Sierra
Tarahumara. The development of this region
has been a challenge throughout Mexican
history. WWF and its partners have focused on
integrating the indigenous communities into
the IRBM process and supporting them to
improve their livelihoods through better water
supply and sanitation, forest conservation and
biodiversity conservation.
Two examples of livelihood improvement
illustrate the outcomes of this community-based
work. The first is the implementation of a soil
conservation project in the Choguita–Aguatos
microbasin that has restored 1,273 ha of eroded
terrain and has directly benefited 433 people by
improving their lands, living conditions and
access to water. The second pilot project was
designed to complement the soil and forest con-
servation practices with livelihood modules to
promote a sustainable rural water management
programme in the Upper Conchos River basin.
Modules include: (a) rain water capture, (b) veg-
etable or backyard gardens, (c) dry toilets based
on ecosan technology,2 and (d) reuse of grey
water and kitchen organic waste. In addition,
actions to protect potable and spring water
sources and to support community water com-
mittees are taking place. Currently, 26 backyard
gardens, each of 100 m2, have been built to
cover a total area of 2,600 m2, as a result of
which around 200 people have benefited directly.
During the summer 2007 harvesting season, each
garden owner was able to produce between four
and 12 species of vegetables and capture at least
10 m3 of water for the winter. Families have
Integrated river basin management in the Conchos River basin, Mexico 255
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
decreased their vulnerability to water scarcity and
low temperatures during the winter. Currently,
this work is being strengthened by supporting
community water committees. Furthermore,
WWF and its partners are developing an ecologi-
cal tourism project in Ejido Panalachi, and a
pilot project on payment for environmental ser-
vices in the Choguita–Aguatos basin, in order to
further develop a proposal to improve the long-
term living conditions of the indigenous commu-
nities in the Sierra Tarahumara, who are the main
owners of the forest watersheds.
5. Discussion
The severe drought in the Conchos River from
1993 to 2005 was an extraordinary opportunity
to study different responses and actions taken
by water users, authorities and NGOs. However,
it should be taken into account that these
responses and actions were not planned under a
climate change vulnerability and adaptation fra-
mework, in which the criteria of effectiveness,
efficiency, equity and legitimacy, as proposed by
Adger et al. (2004), were considered in measuring
adaptation success. These actions were a con-
scious response to climate variability and water
shortage. In this sense, they could become the
foundation of further climate change adapta-
tion measures (Kundzewicz et al., 2007; Bates
et al., 2008).
The IRBM programme for the Conchos River
basin was planned with a number of aims in
mind: as a process to promote a basin-wide
view; to integrate actions to overcome water over-
extraction and conserve freshwater biodiversity;
to develop better basin governance; and to
improve livelihoods of indigenous communities
in the headwaters. As a result of five years’ work,
there are valuable implementation experiences –
the ‘no regrets’ autonomous adaptation measures
– from which to learn, in order to develop a more
effective climate adaptation programme for the
basin, as well as for the country.
The EFA’s implementation strategy in the Rio
Conchos has strengthened the scientific under-
standing of the basin from fields such as hydrology,
ecology and social sciences. It has allowed the pro-
posal of freshwater ecosystem water requirements
to CONAGUA, water stakeholders and the society
for the sustainable management of the river eco-
system as a common vision for all. Thus the
benefit of maintaining and restoring a socio-
ecological river system that was not considered at
the time of the 1993–2005 drought is now being
contemplated. This vision promotes, in a practical
way, the convergence of vulnerability and resili-
ence understanding (Adger, 2006), and therefore
a better framework to adapt to climate change.
The North American Development Bank’s
USD140 million investment to improve irrigation
infrastructure is the most important adaptation
action taken in recent years. It has resulted in
savings of between 25 and 43% in crop water
use, and an increase in irrigation efficiency from
44 to 66%. However, the success of such actions
depends on spatial and temporal scales and
should not be addressed simply in terms of the
objectives of individual adaptors (Adger et al.,
2004). Notably, this investment was driven in
large part by the different but converging inter-
ests of local, state, national and US authorities
(through the Mexico–USA water treaty) in mana-
ging water scarcity. To date, this action has
achieved the objective of reducing agricultural
water demand, but it has decreased the ground-
water recharge that was taking place in the
unlined irrigation channels before moderniz-
ation and, consequently, it could be part of the
increment in fluoride and arsenic concentrations
of natural origin (Rodrıguez-Pineda et al., 2005),
that affects groundwater drinking supplies in
the middle basin by reduction of fresh water infil-
tration and heavy groundwater withdrawal
mainly for agricultural use (Mahklnecht et al.,
2008). This illustrates the need for adaptation
measures to be planned with a broad range of
expertise and for stakeholders to avoid such
adverse outcomes.
256 Barrios, Rodrıguez-Pineda and De la Maza
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
The water demand reductions that have been
achieved could be a temporary solution, since
they are insufficient to sustain irrigation farm-
ing if available water is reduced by more than
25%, as occurred during the last drought. The
economic return from agricultural production
in the region depends primarily on more
than 60,000 ha of alfalfa as a cash crop
(CONAGUA, 2008a, 2008b) and on high-value
crops such as pecans, onions and peppers.
According to farmers interviewed in the Delicias
district, adaptations that would enable even less
water use while maintaining or increasing econ-
omic returns are hindered by a lack of capacity
to diversify their production and cultivate
high-value crops in domestic, regional and
international markets. As such, a sustainable
adaptation appears to first require adjustments
in policies, institutions and attitudes in order to
establish enabling conditions, which then
would facilitate technological and infrastructural
changes (Schipper, 2007). As stated by Liverman
(1999) in its adaptation studies on drought in
Mexico, over the longer term, improvements in
irrigation efficiency have reduced drought vul-
nerability in some irrigation districts, and new
proposals for decentralized management and
water pricing may allow more flexible adjustment
to water supply variations. In this sense, it has
become clear through the Rio Conchos experi-
ence that modernization of the agricultural
sector in Mexico will not be enough to achieve
an effective adaptation to reduce vulnerability.
The GIT has played a key role as a river basin
entity that promotes consideration of proposed
measures from diverse perspectives, equity of out-
comes and legitimacy of decision making. Until
now, adaptation actions have been decided
mainly by the authorities, with limited partici-
pation of stakeholders other than the farmers. It
is clear that decisions and actions taken prior to
the 2004 process would have been better in the
post-2004 environment, since they would have
been taken considering other water users and
the river ecosystem. For example:
B A USD140 million investment in the irriga-
tion district compared with the USD1.4
million invested in water and sanitation ser-
vices in the Sierra Tarahumara in 2004
(World Bank, 2007).
B Water savings were not allocated to recover
the river ecosystem, but were rather proposed
to increase the irrigation surface area. Cur-
rently, there is a proposal to allocate these
savings to the environment and restore river
ecosystems.
B There was no consideration of groundwater
impacts due to the reduction of water infiltra-
tion from unlined channels and their impact
on drinking water sources. Now it is clearer
that surface and groundwater must be
managed together.
B The Conchos River Commission was not
active at all in promoting participation or a
river basin view. Currently, the GIT is
playing the role of a river basin entity.
Consequently the authors contend that GIT, as a
multi-stakeholder, establishes a better basis for
adaptation decisions than a single stakeholder
view, which avoids adverse outcomes, increases
the effectiveness of adopted measures and
enhances resilience. However, the GIT is overly
dependent on voluntary work, as funding
for this basin-scale management institution
remains uncertain.
As in other places in Mexico, it is clear that
infrastructure development has been preferred
in the Conchos River basin over soft infrastruc-
ture actions, which are not yet considered a pri-
ority. As stated by Adger et al. (2004), the
beneficial effects of soft engineering approaches
are uncertain; however, in the Conchos River,
these types of measures have shown good results
on investment, such as the case of the GIT. A
key barrier to soft infrastructure interventions is
the limited financial support, if any, that they
are receiving. This is especially important
because the recently presented Mexico Special
Program on Climate Change 2008–2012 (PEF,
Integrated river basin management in the Conchos River basin, Mexico 257
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
2009) is placing hydraulic infrastructure at the
core of the adaptation strategy. It will be a signifi-
cant programme, but its effectiveness depends
upon the active and informed participation of
stakeholders in its planning and implementation.
The IPCC has also raised this concern in the dis-
cussion of demand-side vs. supply-side adap-
tation options, indicating that it is a matter of
uncertainty vs. certainty in results, and proposing
that although supply-side options have environ-
mental consequences, they can be alleviated in
many cases (Kundzewicz et al., 2007, pp. 197–
198). Based on the Conchos River experience,
demand-side adaptation must be considered as
the first option, since it would not allow further
environmental degradation; so the development
of good water governance to support demand-
side options is a key issue.
At the local level in the Sierra Tarahumara,
concrete experiences illustrate how traditional
projects to improve human well-being are the
best way to reduce indigenous communities’
vulnerability to climate variability. At this
time, these projects are covering a small amount
of the population, since actions to support local
indigenous communities must respect their
customs and traditional decision-making pro-
cesses. This is a good example of how legitimacy
adds to project implementation. However,
through this experience it has also become clear
that if these projects are not complemented by
local organization and community participation
in the river basin governance, indigenous com-
munities could be threatened by water manage-
ment decisions. As stated by Adger (2006),
equity within the decision-making process is as
important as the equity of the outcome in redu-
cing vulnerability.
Since the Conchos River is part of a larger trans-
boundary basin, the challenge ahead is not only
to develop an evidence-based adaptation strategy
but also to ultimately integrate this strategy with
the entire Rio Bravo basin and into the Mexico–
USA international water agreement. Integrating
climate change adaptation across these geo-
political entities is a challenge, since it requires
action from the local to the international level.
While it provides one framework for action, the
Mexico–USA water treaty (IBWC/CILA, 2009)
has not been significantly revised since 1944,
during which time climate change and shifting
human demands have been constantly imposing
new challenges. Consequently, amendments to
the agreement to manage for climate change
should be sought.
6. Conclusions
In the process of implementing the IRBM pro-
gramme in the Conchos River, the Alliance
WWF-FGRA has developed an effective model
for adaptation in water and river basin manage-
ment that combines an ecosystem-based
approach, public participation and support of
indigenous communities to improve their liveli-
hoods based on biodiversity conservation.
Adaptive management in the Rio Conchos
basin has proven more of a political than a techni-
cal challenge, as it has elsewhere in the water
sector (Allan, 2003). Stimulating political support
for adaptive water management in the Rio
Conchos basin has required extensive investment
in awareness raising, transfer of expertise and
other capacity building to overcome lack of infor-
mation, weak institutions and limited public
participation.
Most of the useful experiences from this
process arise from comparing the decisions
taken both before and after the 2004 process. Pre-
viously, most decisions were made by each sector
or agency in isolation, and some decisions rep-
resented maladaptation. Since 2004, the IRBM
approach provides a comprehensive framework
for considering a broad range of expertise and
interests, and for decision making on adaptation
measures that is more likely to be effectively
implemented without adverse outcomes. In this
case, the IRBM in the Conchos River is the most
important and clear adaptation strategy.
258 Barrios, Rodrıguez-Pineda and De la Maza
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
The Mexico Special Program on Climate
Change 2008–2012 (PEF, 2009) favours hydraulic
infrastructure projects. However, based on the
Conchos River experience, adaptive water
management should instead favour public par-
ticipation, soft engineering approaches, an
ecosystem-based approach and demand-side
adaptation options prior to any further physical
alteration of water sources.
Acknowledgements
This programme has been developed by the Alli-
ance WWF Mexico and the Gonzalo Rio Arronte
Foundation, with support from HSBC, USAID,
WWF-UK and The Coca Cola Company. The
main participants in this programme are the Gov-
ernment of the State of Chihuahua, the National
Water Commission (CONAGUA), the National
Forestry Commission (CONAFOR), the commu-
nities of the Ejido Panalachi and Choguita, and
the NGOs Alcadeco and Profauna.
Notes
1. The Rio Bravo is known in the USA as the Rio
Grande.
2. Ecological sanitation (ecosan) solves sanitation pro-
blems by recovering and reusing the resources con-
tained in excreta and wastewater (www.ecosan.org).
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Participatory river basin management in the Sao JoaoRiver, Brazil: A basis for climate change adaptation?LUIZ FIRMINO MARTINS PEREIRA1,*, SAMUEL BARRETO2 and JAMIE PITTOCK3
1Consorcio Intermunicipal Lagos Sao Joao, Edifıcio Ferreira, Av Getulio Vargas, 603–305/305, Centro, Araruama, 28970-000,
RJ, Brazil2WWF Brazil, SHIS EQ QL 6/8, Conjunto E-2 andar, 71620-430, Brasılia, Brazil3Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia
This paper describes an empirical case study of enhanced water management in the Sao Joao River basin on the southeastcoast of Brazil between 1999 and 2008. The autonomous adaptation measures applied are assessed to derive lessons formore effective climate change adaptation. In response to severe eutrophication of their coastal lakes, effective, local multi-stakeholder institutions were established under the auspices of the Consorcio Intermunicipal Lagos Sao Joao from 1999 toimprove basin management. Having significantly reduced the pollution problem, other environmental challenges are nowbeing addressed. In managing environmental problems with multiple causes and effects, engaging multiple stakeholders andcommunicating the need to change environmental management, these local institutions have established the types ofcapacities needed for climate change adaptation. Factors contributing to the strengthening of this adaptive capacity include:engagement of local non-governmental organizations, companies and municipal governments; leadership and development ofa collective identity; enabling national and state water laws; an ability to raise funds; and implementation of an iterative,adaptive management approach to environmental management.
Keywords: adaptation; Brazil; climate change; institutions; river; Sao Joao; water
1. Introduction
This paper examines what motivated the commu-
nity in the Sao Joao region on the coast of
southeastern Brazil (see Figure 1) to change their
management of the basin and the factors that sus-
tained these processes. It is published here as part
of a special edition providing an overarching
assessment (Pittock, 2009) of the global lessons
derived from the six WWF empirical case studies
of autonomous adaptation to climate change in
developing countries. We start by reviewing rel-
evant climate change impacts and adaptation
concepts before detailing the situation in the
Sao Joao region.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) states that ‘observational records
and climate projections provide abundant evi-
dence that freshwater resources are vulnerable
and have the potential to be strongly impacted
by climate change’ (Bates et al., 2008). However,
this paper looks at a region where there is very
little published literature on climate change
impacts or adaptation measures. Climate change
forecasts for this area lack high resolution;
however, impacts are expected from more
extreme events (Pezza and Simmonds, 2005;
Dufek and Ambrizzi, 2008), higher temperatures,
sea level rise, possible increases in precipitation,
exacerbation of water pollution, and loss of biodi-
versity (Christensen et al., 2007; Magrin et al.,
2007; Bates et al., 2008).
Even without climate change the world faces
grave challenges in sustaining adequate water
case study
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 261–268
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0026 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
resources, and the water sector has long applied
adaptive management practices. The IPCC recog-
nize this in saying (Kundzewicz et al., 2007,
p. 196): ‘Adaptation to changing conditions in
water availability and demand has always been
at the core of water management’. The IPCC
define this type of ‘autonomous adaptation’
(Bates et al., 2008, p. 48) as ‘those that do not con-
stitute a conscious response to climate stimuli,
but result from changes to meet altered
demands, objectives and expectations’. We
contend that there is much to be learnt for more
effective adaptation from these measures. This
paper also considers the benefits of such
interventions in terms of increasing resilience
and reducing vulnerability (Bates et al., 2008).
We believe that the lack of high resolution
climate change forecasts requires governments
and societies to begin adaptation despite the
uncertainties (Richardson et al., 2009). An insti-
tutional assessment by Tompkins et al. (2008) of
disaster risk management and long-term adaptive
capacity building identified four critical factors
that led to reductions in risk: flexible, learning-
based, responsive governance (such as stakeholder
participation, access to knowledge, accountability
and transparency); committed, reform-minded
and politically active actors; disaster risk reduction
FIGURE 1 Location of the Sao Joao River basin (dark grey) and adjacent catchments (light grey) in the Lagos Sao Joao
hydrographic region
262 Pereira, Barreto and Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
integrated into other social and economic policy
processes; and a long-term commitment to mana-
ging risk. Tompkins and Adger (2004) argue that
‘community-based management enhances adap-
tive capacity in two ways, by building networks
that are important for coping with extreme
events and by retaining the resilience of the under-
pinning resources and ecological systems’. In the
related field of river basin governance, similar
mechanisms have been proposed for enhancing
water resources management, including commu-
nities of practice and social learning at different
scales and involving diverse stakeholders (Pahl-
Wostl et al., 2007); as well as leadership and build-
ing collective identities (Abers, 2007).
The IPCC propose a number of adaptation
approaches to cope with uncertainty on climate
change impacts. These include no-regrets
policies ‘that would generate net social and/or
economic benefits irrespective of whether or not
anthropogenic climate change occurs’, ‘the
increased use of water management measures
that are relatively robust to uncertainty’, and
integrated water resources management (Bates
et al., 2008).
The potential impacts of and Brazil’s options
for responding to climate change have been
debated in the literature, but this work has
largely focused on the Amazon and semi-arid
northeast portions of the country, and on issues
such as carbon balances, agriculture and biofuel
production. Government policy offers little gui-
dance. The ‘National Plan on Climate Change’
(Government of Brazil, 2008) identifies seven
goals, of which two focus on adaptation. The pro-
posed adaptation actions largely involve further
research and communication activities, although
‘strengthening of environmental sanitation
measures’ is also proposed.
In the Sao Joao River and adjacent coastal basins
the biodiverse Atlantic forest remnants give way to
farm lands, floodplains and coastal lagoons. The
basin falls within the territories of 12 local govern-
ments in Rio de Janeiro State. In the 3,825 km2
region the resident population of 451,000 people
swells to approximately 2 million people in
holiday periods. The Juturnaiba Dam on the
120 km-long Sao Joao River is the main water
supply for local people (Dantas et al., 2001). By
the late 1990s expanding tourism development
resulted in the coastal lagoons silting up and
becoming polluted with untreated sewerage,
causing a collapse in the fishing industry and
impacting on tourism. The Sao Joao basin was
chosen for this autonomous adaptation case
study because of: (a) WWF’s long history of work
in the region, starting in the 1960s to conserve an
endangered primate, the Golden Lion Tamarin,
which then led to the establishment of a freshwater
conservation programme from 1999; and (b) the
reforms in basin management since 1999.
2. Assessment
This paper reviews the changes in management of
the Sao Joao national hydrographic region from
1999 to 2008 based on research undertaken in
late 2008. The study sought to derive lessons con-
cerning (unplanned) autonomous adaptation to
climate change, with reference to the success
factors for more effective adaptation and river
basin management proposed by Tompkins and
Adger (2004), Adger et al. (2005), Abers (2007)
and Pahl-Wostl et al. (2007). We applied a
largely qualitative analytical framework devel-
oped by Pittock (2009: Annex) to assess (a) auton-
omous adaptation, (b) socio-economic and (c)
conservation outcomes.
The assessment covers the local implemen-
tation of the 1997 national water law and 1999
Rio de Janeiro State water law (ANA, 2007) to
decentralize and democratize water management
(Brannstrom, 2004; Abers et al., 2006). In 1999
the Consorcio Intermunicipal Lagos Sao Joao
(the Consortium) was formed by the 12 local gov-
ernments and now includes four stakeholder
representatives from the Sao Joao Basin Commit-
tee (Bidegain, 2002). This Committee was estab-
lished in 2004 with membership from three tiers
of government, academics, local companies and
58 civil society groups to engage basin residents
more broadly and advise the Consortium
(Pereira, 2007). Extensive investment in an
Participatory river basin management in the Sao Joao River, Brazil 263
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
environmental education programme from 2003
continues to build public support for catchment
management reforms (Kobata, 2006). The Con-
sortium established a process of developing and
implementing a basin management plan (Bide-
gain and Pereira, 2006) with subsidiary work
plans. The Consortium is now on its third work
plan for the coastal lagoons. The Consortium
secured resources from (a) secondment of a staff
member from the state government to lead the
secretariat; (b) membership fees from municipal
governments scaled to reflect the resident popu-
lations; and (c) participation fees from local com-
panies. Establishment of a number of sub-basin
and thematic working groups from 2005 has
facilitated widespread participation in adaptive
basin management, increasing local capacities.
These institutions were established for integrated
river basin management, to progressively solve
major environmental problems, starting with
water pollution and fisheries management.
3. Results
A number of the key benefits resulting from the
strengthened institutions are summarized here
in terms of adaptation, livelihood and environ-
mental outcomes. The degradation of the rivers,
Juturnaiba reservoir (30 km2), and Araruama
(220 km2) and Saquarema (24 km2) coastal
lagoons by discharge of untreated waste waters
threatened the tourism and fishing industries
which comprise 70% of the region’s economy.
The Consortium, fishing community and allied
NGOs lobbied and took legal action against the
state government pollution regulator. A key
outcome was the renegotiation of water supply
company concessions that saw an initial
USD38.5 million investment in 2002–2005 in
new sewerage treatment infrastructure that has
reduced wastewater discharge by 75%. A
USD19.3 million second phase is due to collect
all waste waters for collection by 2009, and a
third phase from 2010 to 2023 is planned to sep-
arate storm water from sewerage. In addition,
the silted up entrance to the Araruama Lagoon
was dredged to restore greater exchange of water
with the sea. The substantial reduction of
pollution inflows has reduced the threat that
eutrophication of lagoon waters would be exacer-
bated by higher temperatures with climate
change.
Substantial socio-economic benefits in restor-
ing the fishing and tourism industries have
resulted from the interventions. Improved water
quality has seen restoration of mangrove habitats
and increases in fish, shrimp and bird popu-
lations. The fishing industry has been
re-established and now supports 600 families,
and the tourism industry has recovered. Econ-
omic growth is increasing regional training and
employment opportunities. The Consortium
has also targeted disadvantaged sectors of the
local society who often reside on and farm the
most flood-prone lands. For instance, women in
two communities are participating in a project
to produce handicrafts for sale to tourists as a
means of increasing and diversifying incomes to
reduce poverty and their communities’ vulner-
ability to extreme events.
Following success in reducing water pollution,
the Committee and Consortium decided to scale
up work from 2007 to reduce erosion and conserve
the water sources and biodiversity through linking
and restoring remnant riparian and other wetland
habitats. The Juturnaiba Dam will be retrofitted
with a fish ladder at a cost of USD400,000 to recon-
nect populations of migratory species like grey
mullet, sea bass and prawns, and the dam’s operat-
ing rules are being revised. The river bypass canal
downstream of the dam will be decommissioned
at a cost of USD700,000 to restore the Rio Sao
Joao’s natural course and the adjacent flood plain
wetlands. The canal will be converted to aquacul-
ture ponds, further diversifying the local
economy. A payment for environmental services
scheme is funding previously unemployed resi-
dents to restore riparian forests. This is reducing
erosion and linking remnant habitats of a threa-
tened primate, the Golden Lion Tamarin, whose
population is increasing as the forests are restored.
A network of protected areas is being established
on private and public lands. Biodiversity and the
264 Pereira, Barreto and Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
fishing industry are expected to benefit further as
reconnection and restoration of habitat increases
species populations, access to habitat, ability to
move to new habitats, and thus resilience to
climate change impacts.
As part of this assessment, local residents were
asked their views on what made the institutional
adaptation successful. Mr Arnaldo Villa Nova,
President of the non-governmental organizations
involved in the Consortium explained (pers.
commun.):
The Lagos Region has a wonderful natural heri-
tage, which the civil society has always tried to
preserve. [. . .We started the fight in] the year
2000, when we started with an indefinite
horizon, and with many doubts and questions
to be answered. . . . How long will it resist
degradation, deforestation, and economic
exploitation without any scruples? When can
our children play without the risk of getting
sick? What can we do to recuperate and pre-
serve the region? . . . The strategy applied by
WWF in the Lagos Region was for direct
support to the NGOs, which allowed the
studies, investigations, the planning of projects
for environmental recuperation, environ-
mental education activities, as well as giving a
definitive structure to the Consortium to
accomplish its mission. After some years, the
situation today is very different from the one
in the beginning of the program. Many activi-
ties were implemented to stop degrading
environmental processes, and increasing
awareness of local government as well as the
residents of the region. . . . We are half way in
our journey: there is a lot to do . . ..
Ms Denise Pena, a non-government representa-
tive on the Consortium focused on environ-
mental education, commented (pers. commun.):
The proposal of this new model of environ-
mental management, where decisions must be
taken by those who are acting and living in the
territory of the hydrographic basin, in a decen-
tralized and essentially participative form,
could not take root without processes of
environmental education, which give con-
ditions for productions and acquisition of
knowledge, abilities and the development of
attitudes, aiming at an individual and collective
participation in this adopted model of
management.
4. Discussion
In assessing the changes in the Sao Joao region we
have identified a number of factors influencing
the success and the sustainability of the measures
undertaken.
4.1. Motivation for change
The collapse of the coastal lagoon environments
and consequent socio-economic impacts on the
fishing and tourism industries was the initial
motivation for reform. The progress in Sao Joao
appears to have been aided by funding provided
by WWF to help local NGOs build their capacity,
provide environmental education and develop a
collective identity. This is consistent with Abers’
(2007) assessment of other Brazilian river basins.
With respect to the debate over whether adap-
tation is better facilitated by focusing on social
and biophysical risk reduction or by development
to reduce poverty and enhance livelihoods
(Adger, 2006; Schipper, 2007; Tompkins et al.,
2008), in the case of Sao Joao, the primary invest-
ments enhanced livelihoods in the fishing and
tourism sectors as well as reducing physical
vulnerability. Later and smaller-scale investments
sought to improve the livelihoods of other
disadvantaged groups, including through
employment in environmental restoration. The
Consortium’s staff say that community awareness
raising and engagement, and a virtuous and itera-
tive cycle of successful interventions, has led to
community support for further actions. This is
consistent with the conclusion of Pahl-Wostl
et al. (2007) that social learning institutions are
vital, and Dovers (2005) who identified iterative
programme cycles as being an element of
Participatory river basin management in the Sao Joao River, Brazil 265
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
successful sustainability policies. It is also consist-
ent with Tompkins et al. (2008) who argue that
stakeholder participation, access to knowledge,
accountability and transparency are central to
building long-term adaptive capacity.
4.2. Sustainability and funding
Institutional sustainability of these measures is
enhanced by the local community engagement,
mandate from the national and state water laws,
and the fundraising capacity of the Consortium
(Mea, 2007). While municipal and company fees
do not pay all programme costs, they do enable
leverage of other funds, including the second-
ment of state government staff. The basin insti-
tutions in Sao Joao differ from those in other
parts of Brazil as they combine downward
accountability through the leading role of
municipal governments in the administrative
Consortium, together with multi-stakeholder
participation through the advisory council. This
appears to compare favourably with three other
institutional models for decentralized water
resources management in Brazil (Brannstrom,
2004) in terms of promoting reform, limiting
conflicts, maximizing community engagement
and accountability. This highlights the impor-
tance of concurrent measures across geopolitical
scales, in this case at the individual, basin, local,
state and federal government levels, for effective
adaptation (Adger et al., 2005).
The management interventions undertaken
thus far appear to address some but not all likely
impacts of climate change. The likelihood of
algal blooms with warmer weather has dimin-
ished greatly with the extension of wastewater
treatment, and further benefits for aquatic biodi-
versity and fisheries, reduced erosion and water
quality are likely from the restoration of riparian
forests, the construction of a fish ladder and
removal of the channelized section of the river.
Furthermore, some of the region’s poorest com-
munities have higher and more diverse
incomes, enabling them to cope better with dis-
ruptive events. On the other hand, little
thought has yet been given to management of
more frequent high rainfall events or to likely
rises in sea level. However, the strength of the
community-based management institutions sup-
ports Tompkins and Adger’s (2004) proposition
that greater adaptive capacity has been estab-
lished through stronger social networks and by
retaining the resilience of the underpinning
resources and ecological systems. The problems
dealt with by the river basin management insti-
tutions to date have the same attributes as those
of climate change adaptation challenges: mul-
tiple cause and effect linkages, multiple stake-
holders and communication of the need for
changes in environmental management. Having
addressed eutrophication of regional water
bodies and now riparian restoration, there is the
capacity and will in the basin institutions to
manage the new problems expected to come
with climate change.
4.3. Barriers and lessons
Until this study commenced, the basin manage-
ment institutions had not considered how to
manage climate change. They appeared discour-
aged by the uncertainties in data available on
the likely local impacts of climate change and
lack of locally available expertise. The Consor-
tium staff saw the climate change information
available to them as lacking salience (Meinke
et al., 2006). As a result of this research, the
Consortium staff are now inspired to reassess
how their programme can now become more
climate informed, including by implementing
further no-regrets adaptation measures.
This case study highlights the importance of
strong local institutions for adaptation. The
extensive public communication and engage-
ment has made government institutions more
accountable and responsive (Costa, 2007). The
multi-stakeholder Committee and Consortium
processes built partnerships and consensus for
change, and stopped ‘buck-passing’ between gov-
ernments. This is consistent with the systematic
social learning promoted by Lee (2003). The
266 Pereira, Barreto and Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Consortium secretariat was kept small and work
was contracted out to other institutions in
the basin, enhancing engagement, partnerships
and capacities for reform. The basin institutions’
subsidiarity mechanisms enhanced local owner-
ship of problems, innovation and successful
responses, consistent with Abers (2007).
4.4. Potential to scale up
Brazil’s national and state water laws could enable
similar work in the approximately 140 similar
river basin institutions across Brazil. Abers
(2007) and Brannstrom (2004, p. 231) outline
factors that have favoured or hindered decentra-
lized stakeholder governance in other Brazilian
basins, and by comparison the Sao Joao insti-
tutional framework appears ‘to encourage a three-
way dynamic among central authorities, local
government and civil society’ and develop a
common local identity particularly effectively.
5. Conclusions
Management of the Sao Joao basin did not con-
sider climate change, but the institutional
reforms and other interventions have established
a strong basis for building resilience and reducing
vulnerability. A number of lessons can be drawn
from this case for more effective adaptation to
climate change:
B Severe pollution of the region’s water bodies
helped mobilize non-governmental organiz-
ations and local leaders to respond.
B Three factors were crucial to the success of
national and state river-basin management
institutions in facilitating reform at the
basin scale: bringing together diverse stake-
holders to work towards a common vision;
local ownership; and an independent finan-
cing mechanism.
B Concurrent investment in activities that both
reduced vulnerability and enhanced liveli-
hoods generated community support and
inspired community confidence in new
interventions by achieving substantial early
successes.
B Proponents of mainstreaming climate change
adaptation must communicate in salient
language and illustrate ‘no- and low-regrets’
options that are effective despite uncertain-
ties as to climate change impacts.
The reforms at Sao Joao highlight the opportu-
nities to mainstream climate change adaptation
through river basin management programmes.
Acknowledgements
HSBC contributed funding to WWF Brazil’s par-
ticipation in the Sao Joao project, as well as to
this assessment.
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268 Pereira, Barreto and Pittock
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Embracing uncertainty in freshwater climate changeadaptation: A natural history approachJOHN H. MATTHEWS* and A. J. WICKEL
Conservation Science Department, World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20037, USA
Climate shifts are not new in the experience of humans and other species, but the capacity of potential evolutionary and ecologicalresponses to climate change has been reduced through widespread human modifications of natural ecosystems. The magnitude,duration and timescales of altered climate threats require multigenerational strategies for climate change adaptation. In manyplaces terrestrial and aquatic species and human livelihoods are limited by the availability of freshwater resources. Current climatechange adaptation practice places great faith in the ability of climate models to predict specific impacts, which then become thefocus of climate change adaptation activities and thus foster reactive ‘impacts thinking’. Given that freshwater climate variablesare associated with high predictive uncertainty, a novel approach referred to here as ‘adaptation thinking’ treats ecosystems asdynamic entities that will be inherently different from current and past ecosystem states for multiple reasons, including climatechange. As a result, adaptation thinking emphasizes the shifting relationship between institutions and ecosystems. This approachpromotes flexibility and continuous scenario development. Using natural modes of adaptation as a template for sustainabledevelopment should promote collaboration between scientists, policymakers and development professionals.
Keywords: climate change; climate change adaptation; conservation; economic development; freshwater
1. Introduction
The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects
that even with immediate implementation of
climate mitigation policies, the global climate
system will continue to shift and change for
decades. Two centuries of industrial emissions of
greenhouse gases have altered the radiative
forcing of the planet, resulting in rapid changes
in what humans perceive as stationary climate
conditions (IPCC, 2007a; Biggs et al., 2009;
CCSP, 2009). Thus, the need to adjust and adapt
to realized shifts in climate and to prepare for
major shifts in what we have perceived as
‘normal’ weather is crucial for individuals, insti-
tutions, ecosystems and species. Climate change
adaptation (CCA) will be with us for the foresee-
able future.
While it may be of some comfort that humans
and other species have adapted to changes in
climate conditions many times in the past, the
explicit recognition of the importance of treating
climate as a variable rather than as a constant
factor is new for humans. Evolutionary ecologists
believe that past dramatic large-scale climate
change events have had three levels of impacts
on the life history of organisms: alterations in
the geographic range and phenological1 patterns
of species, species extinctions, and (over long
timescales) shifts in the processes of natural selec-
tion and speciation (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003).
The current period of climate change may
qualify as such a serious large-scale event (Root
et al., 2003, Marris, 2007), particularly given the
synergy of climate change to massive shifts in
land use that have also occurred over the past
review article
B *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (2009) 269–279
doi:10.3763/cdev.2009.0018 # 2009 Earthscan ISSN: 1756-5529 (print), 1756-5537 (online) www.earthscanjournals.com
150 years (e.g. Dahl, 1990; Ricciardi and Rasmus-
sen, 1999; Abell, 2002).
2. Climate change adaptation as a naturalprocess
Despite a growing consensus that humans need
to adapt to climate change, there is little agree-
ment about the actual meaning of CCA (Brooke,
2008; Williams et al., 2008). The IPCC defined
CCA as an ‘adjustment in ecological, social, or
economic systems in response to actual
or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or
impacts . . . to changes in processes, practices, or
structures to moderate or offset potential
damages or to take advantage of opportunities
associated with changes in climate’ (IPCC,
2001). This definition does not distinguish
between the spatial or temporal scale of climate
impacts nor the severity of those impacts, even
though such considerations could result in fun-
damentally different approaches to CCA that
should be explicitly addressed by conservation
and economic development groups.
Fundamental to the concept of CCA is the
implication of vulnerability to negative impacts
from climate change, which must be assessed
through some process before responding with
appropriate ‘adaptations’. Vulnerability is
described by the IPCC as having three com-
ponents: sensitivity to change, exposure to
climate shifts, and degree of adaptive capacity
(IPCC, 2001, Williams et al., 2008). Significantly,
Brooke (2008) points out that most CCA prac-
titioners focus on either human adaptation
(economic development) or species and ecosys-
tem adaptation (conservation) with much less
emphasis on a more holistic sustainability
science that incorporates both development and
conservation, such as through ‘linked
social-ecological systems’ (Holling, 1973).
The means of presenting climate data through
institutions such as the IPCC may be indirectly
influencing how policymakers and development
and conservation groups perceive or frame shifts
in climate. For instance, much current CCA
work is firmly grounded on deterministic assess-
ments of climate change impacts, primarily
derived from climate models. Such CCA
approaches thus effectively assume that (a)
climate shifts will be gradual, (b) shifts in mean
annual climate variables are more important
than the frequency or severity of extreme
weather events, (c) high-confidence CCA plans
can be defined on the basis of circulation model
projections for regional climate decades from
now, (d) that the temporal scale of circulation
model resolution is appropriate for describing
ecosystem-level impacts, and (e) that ecosystems
will remain largely ‘intact’ and ‘recognizable’ as
assemblages of species in the face of climate, or
will shift as ecosystem units. Many of these per-
spectives reflect data presentation or model bias
rather than climate or ecological processes.
Making these assumptions would lead to CCA
projects that are most akin to the biological defi-
nition of acclimatization, i.e. adjustments by an
individual organism to changed conditions
(Futuyma, 1998); often these adjustments have
a specific end point or target in mind. For
instance, to cope with increased frequency of
droughts, a resource manager might lower water
demand levels to a more sustainable level
through increased water-use efficiency. The liveli-
hood, species or ecosystem is stretched but not
fundamentally reconfigured (in the history of
the discipline of biology, such a response might
be considered a Lamarckian model of evolution).
Climate change here is well bounded as a
problem, whose impacts can be known and
solved.
In many cases, the (often) unstated assump-
tions about climate science are made against the
explicit advice of climate modellers (e.g. IPCC,
2008). Moreover, most of these assumptions are
not well founded on ecological science, especially
for freshwater ecosystems (Allen and Ingram,
2002; Poff et al., 2002; Parmesan, 2006, Hall
et al., 2008). Perhaps the most important under-
lying concept behind CCA projects that rely on
most or all of these assumptions is that uncer-
tainty surrounding future climate and emerging
ecosystem impacts can be reasonably constrained
270 Matthews and Wickel
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
or reduced (Bammer and Smithson, 2008).
Climate change science does not create high-
confidence quantitative projections at local
spatial scales for most climate variables. Worse,
ecology (the basis for most conservation work)
is much more of a historical, descriptive science
like geology than a non-historical, predictive
science such as physics (Hilborn and Mangel,
1997; Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis, 2008). Even if we
knew what the future climate was going to look
like, we are unlikely accurately to capture the
panoply of ecosystem and species impacts.
The majority of climate models typically
describe climate change as gradual shifts in
‘mean’ climate (IPCC, 2001). Such a mode of
climate change differs from instances in
the paleo-climate record that show changes in
the frequency of extreme weather events (the
number of tropical storms, intense precipitation
events, drought severity/duration). Likewise,
past climates frequently changed in abrupt shifts
from one climate ‘plateau’ to another ‘plateau’
(Anderson et al., 2007; CCSP, 2009). Gradual
shifts are only one means of climate transition.
Change is an old theme in evolutionary
biology, however. In Darwinian evolutionary
ecological usage adaptation refers to multi-
generational changes, which implies developing
genetic ‘fitness’ with a species’ environment
over time (i.e. ‘survival of the fittest’). An adap-
tation may begin incrementally but typically
evolves to become very different from some
initial condition (Futuyma, 1998). Adaptation
with a natural history perspective – emphasizing
the environmental setting of an organism – prob-
ably does not have a designated end point;
change is a process, and the direction of change
itself may shift. A resource manager may exper-
iment in series with drought-response systems,
such as a completely new irrigation delivery
network, changes in crop selection, and new
planting and harvesting methods, while also
developing new systems to monitor drought
severity and frequency patterns and creating
new stakeholder institutions to negotiate for
reduced flows. Such an approach emphasizes
adaptation as a process extending across decades
or generations, involving experiments and trade-
offs, learning and (certainly) failures. Here,
climate change presents obstacles, but these
targets are both moving and associated with
uncertainty. Viewing adaptation from an evol-
utionary ecological perspective situates CCA
into the broader engagement between humans
and other species with climate over long time-
scales (Diamond, 2004; Fagan, 2008).
Focusing on CCA as a natural process also leads
to an examination of the aspects of climate that are
most likely to be influencing the evolutionary
ecology of non-human species and, by extension,
of human societies, cultures and livelihoods. The
literature on impacts and responses to climate
change has often focused on air temperature, a
trend reinforced by the widespread usage of the
term ‘global warming’. Although temperature is
an important determinant of physical habitat,
the availability and predictability of freshwater
resources is likely to be a far more relevant aspect
of climate to species and humans, natural ecosys-
tems and agriculture (Poff et al., 2002; Parmesan
and Galbraith, 2004). Indeed, we believe that if
carbon is the key target for climate mitigation
work, then freshwater should be the key focus for
CCA, for both terrestrial and aquatic biomes.
Given this assumption, CCA for aquatic species
and humans and most other terrestrial species
will be dominated by the story of impacts on
water quality, water quantity, and the timing of
flows and hydroperiod (Poff et al., 2002; Nilsson
and Renofalt, 2008; Palmer et al., 2008; Poff, 2009).
We wish to advocate here an approach to CCA
that is process based, that realistically accounts
for the high uncertainties associated with the
emerging climate, and that grounds both
species conservation and economic development
in the reality of shifting ecosystem conditions
and qualities. Fundamentally, we are suggesting
that humans be viewed as a species like other
species, which implies that we exist within eco-
logical boundaries and on an evolutionary trajec-
tory. An evolutionary ecological perspective is
not particularly controversial in the context of
conservation biology, but we believe the impli-
cations of this approach have not been effectively
A natural history approach 271
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
communicated to policymakers or institutions
working in the field of economic development.
As practising scientists, we believe that these per-
spectives have important policy implications for
freshwater resources and the livelihoods depen-
dent on them, given their importance to econom-
ies, ecosystem services and livelihoods. The gap
between conservation and economic develop-
ment must be bridged rapidly for CCA to be suc-
cessful globally and tailored locally. Applying
these assumptions and perspectives to the
natural history (i.e. the environmental setting
and context) of human societies has the potential
to improve the long-term viability and relevance
of economic development.
These issues are not academic or trivial. If CCA
represents a new path for relating human insti-
tutions to ecosystems, then we risk wasting
limited conservation and development resources
unless we adopt the correct approach to our
work. Perhaps most significantly, we risk reducing
the inherent capacity to adapt to climate shifts
(i.e. maladaptation) through climatically un-
sustainable resource management (Pittock and
Dovers, 2009; Pittock, 2009). Here, we focus
on a series of issues about CCA for freshwater
resources from a scientific perspective relevant
to emerging climate change issues in policy,
resource management and sustainable develop-
ment practice: what shifts should occur in conser-
vation and economic development practices in a
CCA context? How do we manage freshwater
resources for a dynamically shifting climate?
What is an appropriate model for successful
CCA projects?
3. Moving beyond stationarity towardsadaptive freshwater management
Until very recently, almost all water resource man-
agement practice has assumed that the best basis
for infrastructure design and management was
captured through the historical record of that
basin’s hydrological variability – an assumption
of ecosystem ‘stationarity’. Many basins, particu-
larly in western Europe and North America, have
long historical records (.100 years) of discharge
based on monitoring stations. But the basic
assumption that recent knowledge served as an
effective guide to the future was not widely ques-
tioned. More recently, stationarity has been
declared ‘dead’ as a result of human-induced
climate change (Milly et al., 2008).
While climate models are reasonably good at
describing and predicting air temperature
trends, many other climate variables do not
have similar levels of confidence (Milly et al.,
2005; Nohara et al., 2006). The analysis of histori-
cal trends and projections from circulation
models suggest that some regional climate
regimes are shifting into new states that are sub-
stantially different from what have long been
viewed as ‘normal’ climate states. The Murray–
Darling basin in Australia, for instance, is either
in a historically unprecedented drought or in a
new and unfamiliar climate regime, depending
on the author’s perspective (Pittock, 2003). The
rapid loss of tropical glaciers in the Himalayas
(Kehrwald et al., 2008) likewise suggests climate
regimes that are significantly different for
humans and other species in these regions. In
extreme cases, emerging hydrological regimes
may represent so-called ‘no-analog’ climates –
that is, they will be profoundly different from
what has been seen over the past several millen-
nia (Fox, 2007). Thus, the recent past will serve
as an increasingly less reliable guide to the future.
In theory, projections of future climate could
be detailed enough to provide high-confidence
predictions of what regional or local climate will
look like in a particular place at a particular
time. These projections could then guide infra-
structure development. A growing body of tech-
nical literature has been developed to describe
the process of downscaling circulation and
hydrological models from large spatial scales to
guide particular projects and planning. Unfortu-
nately, this route is fraught with risk for planners
and policymakers (Fowler and Wilby, 2007). The
dominant components that govern the water
balance – precipitation and evapotranspiration –
are extremely variable in both space and time.
These components do not show robust,
272 Matthews and Wickel
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
high-confidence trends within individual circula-
tion models and show even less agreement when
comparing different circulation models. Indeed,
even if the models themselves were very accurate,
we do not know how future economic con-
ditions, technological shifts, or mitigation pol-
icies (‘scenarios’, in IPCC parlance) will alter the
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmos-
phere. These levels of uncertainty increase sub-
stantially as spatial scale decreases (from
regional to local) or temporal period grows more
distant (farther into the future) (IPCC, 2008).
The lack of certainty represents a serious crisis
for water resource management and planning.
The death of stationarity means the future is
(probably) cloudier and less certain (Milly et al.,
2008). Downscaling models may be inappropri-
ate and generate false confidence. At worst, they
may result in development and conservation prac-
tices that are maladaptive. Developing appropriate
guidelines for their use is challenging (Fowler and
Wilby, 2007; Johnson and Weaver, 2009).
The implications for this crisis in hydrology
and water engineering are profound for those
involved in freshwater-related economic devel-
opment and conservation. Water resource man-
agement institutions and individuals working in
both areas have generally been consumers of
hydrological data, and thus we too have
implicitly assumed that stationarity is alive and
well, whether or not we were aware that we held
that assumption. In response, we can (a)
proceed as if nothing has changed, (b) allow the
lack of clarity and confidence in what we know
about freshwater ecosystems to excuse inaction,
or (c) begin to modify our work in a way that
takes account of climatic and eco-hydrological
uncertainty. This third path represents the ‘new’
element of freshwater climate adaptation relative
to traditional conservation and development.
4. Understanding and constraining climateuncertainty
Conservation biologists and development pro-
fessionals have differed in their approaches to
sustainable resource management: conservation-
ists have attempted to reduce pressures on ecosys-
tems, while development advocates focused on
improving resource allocation equity and effi-
ciency. In many parts of the world, both groups
are in competition for scarce financial resources
and the attention of policymakers and electo-
rates. In the worst cases, ‘conservation’ may
even be focused on excluding resources from
human communities that already exist on a pre-
carious economic cliff. Indeed, human-caused
climate change has the potential to worsen this
relationship. But these divisions have always
been artificial and distracting, and climate
change simply increases the urgency with which
we must reduce conflict.
Instead, we wish to emphasize that climate
change also presents an opportunity to discuss
sustainable resource management in a more hol-
istic way, bringing together opposing groups
and focusing policymakers drawn to concerns
over climate change on a coherent view of
sustainable development (e.g. Ebert et al., 2009).
The priorities from conservation and develop-
ment groups have too often differed even when
they shared the same goals, and climate change
offers a chance to unify our work and make
both perspectives more effective over coming
decades. Ultimately, such a union represents a
means of addressing future-climate uncertainty,
which is the common enemy of all. A natural
history approach suggests a process-oriented
focus that begins with natural systems and
actively depends on human monitoring, flexi-
ble management and a dynamic relationship
between economies and ecosystems.
In a perfect world, the ideal goal of CCA would
be to anticipate what impacts will happen in par-
ticular localities at particular times to particular
species or livelihoods. This goal is threatened by
the difficulty of anticipating impacts, across at
least three levels of uncertainty:
1. variables of climate in model projections esti-
mating future climate, which are used to esti-
mate . . .
A natural history approach 273
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
2. . . . inflows and outflows for freshwater ecosys-
tems in model projections estimating future
impacts on freshwater ecosystems, which are
used to estimate . . .
3. . . . synergistic impacts between such factors as
climate change, development trajectory and
freshwater ecosystems.
Levels 2 and 3 form the primary basis for develop-
ing most CCA plans (e.g. Williams et al., 2008),
but they are also the levels most burdened with
high levels of uncertainty.
These models can be developed generally using
two approaches: an analysis of climate trends at a
particular locality, or downscaled circulation
models and associated eco-hydrological models.
Trend analyses are normally a robust means of
predicting short-term impacts at local scales, but
for statistical power they require several decades
of reliable data, which is often elusive. The appli-
cability of trend analyses over multi-decadal
timescales is probably low. The levels of uncer-
tainty for circulation models are even higher for
‘watery’ variables, such as the seasonal timing of
precipitation, the amount of precipitation for a
particular region, or whether that precipitation
will fall in liquid or frozen forms. Relative to
air temperature variables, precipitation and
evapotranspiration variables are extremely diffi-
cult to determine in long-term circulation
models (Milly et al., 2005; Nohara et al., 2006,
Koutsoyiannis et al., 2008).
Both approaches make numerous assumptions
about how local or regional climate functions. It
is critical for policymakers and non-science devel-
opment staff to recognize that while scientific
models are approximations of real systems, cli-
matic and eco-hydrological models cannot be
downscaled to the functionally local scale with
the confidence necessary for most conservation
and development projects. Thus, while they
may be informative and a guide to action, they
are unlikely to be definitive. The problem is less
of technical or computational challenges than
of high levels of stochasticity and variability in
the behaviour of precipitation in weather and
climate systems. Finally, it is worth reiterating
that project-based work must avoid assuming a
‘new stationarity’, as if climate change is directed
towards some new stable plateau. Human-made
climate change is driving major shifts in fresh-
water ecosystems, giving conservation and devel-
opment practitioners a moving target on a scale
ranging from decades to centuries (IPCC,
2007a,b). A seemingly stable assessment of
water quantity in a particular lake in 2020, for
instance, may not be representative of that lake
a few decades later. And a moving target will be
more difficult to hit.
Placing an unduly high degree of confidence
in such models tends to lead to an emphasis on
responding to some specific set of predicted
impacts on ecosystems or livelihoods – what
could be called ‘impacts thinking’. This approach
is widespread and dominates much of the conser-
vation and economic development discussion
about CCA at this time. Impacts thinking suggests
that CCA strategies can be clearly articulated, that
models are robust and comprehensive, and that
adaptation does not represent a significant shift
in the worldview behind resource management.
Impacts thinking often implies that vulnerability
need only be assessed once.
5. From impacts thinking to adaptationthinking
‘Adaptation thinking’ shifts the focus of CCA
from a particular set of ecosystem or livelihood
impacts to the process of resource management
itself. The challenges to successful CCA for
resource management are developing a pro-
ductive means of responding to impacts uncer-
tainty over time. This task has three major
components:
1. understanding what qualities enable local eco-
systems (and in many cases traditional liveli-
hoods) to autonomously adapt and remain
resilient to climate impacts;
2. understanding how resource management
institutions can facilitate (or at least not
inhibit) these processes;
274 Matthews and Wickel
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
3. developing the institutional means to antici-
pate and detect processes of climate-driven
change, as well as to implement responses to
realized and potential impacts.
These three components of constraining uncer-
tainty are relatively well known and understood.
Much contemporary hydro-ecological theory, for
instance, focuses on how lakes, rivers and wet-
lands retain ecosystem health (and, for humans,
reliable ecosystem services) such as mitigating
the impacts of surrounding land-use shifts, over-
abstraction of water, restoring geomorphological
structure, and promoting ecological connectivity
within and across ecosystems (Abell, 2002). This
body of knowledge stocks the ‘toolbox’ for CCA.
The ‘tool users’ are the focus of components
2 and 3 – the resource managers, development
institutions and policymakers rather than scien-
tists per se. These two components are also rela-
tively well understood paths: they require that
CCA proceed as a process rather than a single
event and that major decisions (such as flood-
plain restoration, building dams, irrigation infra-
structure or selecting climate-appropriate crops)
are based on a risk assessment basis on the
best-available scientific knowledge. Thus, uncer-
tainty, vulnerability and risk are evaluated con-
tinuously or iteratively. Component 3 becomes
the means for developing robust monitoring
and climate trend and ecosystem impact detec-
tion systems that can re-evaluate the degree of
uncertainty and risk. In other words, high levels
of uncertainty in decision-making processes
suggest that flexibility is the appropriate response
until that uncertainty has been reduced. If water
resources appear to be declining relative to
demand, constructing a new dam may be appro-
priate, but reducing demand through increased
efficiency may be the more flexible route until
more certainty exists about the degree of water
availability shift. After all, in most countries it
would be difficult to tear down a dam once it
has been constructed, much less undo the poten-
tial negative ecosystem consequences of dam
construction and management. In contrast, a
focus on demand should be – at least in theory –
more elastic and less expensive through techniques
such as increasing efficiency, depending on a
wider variety of regional freshwater sources, and
developing drought-management plans. Com-
ponent 3 will also require a strong relationship
between scientific, development and policy
realms so that analytical approaches can balance
model confidence with policy and governance
priorities.
Taken together, adaptation thinking represents
a novel approach to the existing conservation
and economic development work practised glob-
ally. By shifting the focus on CCA from ecosystem
and livelihoods impacts to the process of deter-
mining appropriate resource management, adap-
tation thinking requires policy to ultimately
focus on building effective and adaptive govern-
ance structures and institutions. Water utilities
that can actively monitor and manage through-
out a district become a powerful means of redu-
cing the impacts of droughts on both people
and ecosystems. Agriculture departments that
advocate a basket of less water-intensive crops in
regions with increased precipitation variability
can mitigate the increasing demand of a rapidly
growing population. There can be no doubt that
more dams will be necessary in the future. But
dams may not be the only solution, and they
often do not assist in solving more than a small
number of narrowly defined problems. An over-
dependence on hard ‘concrete’ solutions such as
dams and other capital-intensive infrastructure
to what are really institutional problems may ulti-
mately be undermined by the original problem of
stationarity: can the new infrastructure perform
well enough with a shifting climate in order to
realistically provide a return on the original
investment? In other words, expensive infrastruc-
ture will often be a part of the suite of decisions
contemplated for water-related problems, but
the dilemma of climate uncertainty also means
that the flows may be insufficient to generate
expected levels of electricity, increased evapo-
transpiration may remove large quantities of
‘stored’ water, or dam heights may be incapable
of dealing with increasingly extreme precipi-
tation events. Maintaining flexibility is a
A natural history approach 275
CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
powerful approach to a wide range of
climate-informed decisions over long timescales.
6. Conclusions: Turning climate uncertaintyinto an advantage
Flexibility in and of itself is a useful overarching
theme for CCA. However, flexibility as applied to
a more specific set of principles is more directive
and operationally satisfying when planning new
projects. Based on the experience of the World
Wildlife Fund (WWF) in recent years, we advocate
the following set of concepts for creating
climate-informed sustainable development work:
6.1. Focus on institutional capacity forimplementing and responding to emergingclimate conditions
Too often, infrastructure management has been a
source of maladaptation rather than a tool for
improving CCA processes (Pittock, 2009).
Regional and local water resource management
institutions should, in most cases, be the unit of
focus for both economic development and fresh-
water conservation work (Burton, 1996; see also
Ebert et al., 2009; Gujja et al., 2009; Pereira
et al., 2009). Fundamentally, they must be
capable of developing climate-appropriate pol-
icies and of implementing those policies, such
as working effectively with farmers, irrigation dis-
tricts, fishers and other socio-economic groups
(see Roux et al., 2008). But these institutions
must also move from a model of ‘organizational
stationarity’ to become climate-adaptive insti-
tutions that are capable of detecting changes in
relevant ecosystems, evaluating the appropriate-
ness of their relationship with those ecosystems,
and shifting their behaviour as more effective
models emerge.
6.2. Negotiate responses to extreme weatherand climate variability before crises occur
Globally, climate change is creating more varia-
bility in extreme weather events (Karl and
Knight, 1998; Parmesan et al., 1999; Easterling
et al., 2000; IPCC, 2008). As a result, many
regions are experiencing both more floods and
more droughts, while tropical storm activity is
probably being influenced by climate change as
well. Since climate change may be creating
more severe versions of these than have been
experienced for decades or centuries, existing
emergency management plans may be
inadequate. If current planning focuses on
so-called 100-year floods, for instance, this stan-
dard may be statistically based on the past
century but inaccurate when applied to floods
for the next 10 or 20 years, which will define
a new standard. Drought length and severity
may prove especially challenging in regions
such as the southeastern US when they face
water shortages requiring locally unusual
responses such as rationing. Some of the pain
of previously inexperienced extremes can be
reduced by sound disaster management plan-
ning with policymakers. When disasters do
occur, they represent opportunities to engage
the interest of stakeholders and policymakers
in climate change issues even though they
also present the risk of creating policy that is
reactive rather than thoughtful (Barrios et al.,
2009). However, they also present the risk of
reinforcing inequitable allocations and derailing
development.
6.3. Consider impacts at regional andbasin levels, even when water-managementdecisions are made locally
Unfortunately, eco-hydrological surface, atmos-
pheric or groundwater networks do not normally
align with political boundaries or institutional
zones of influence. Thus, ‘local’ freshwater
issues are rarely local in a hydrological sense
(e.g. see Barrios et al., 2009; Kashaigili et al.,
2009). Without consideration of regional and
basin impacts from local decisions, a problem
that one community has ‘solved’ may in fact
have simply shifted to another community
downstream.
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CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
6.4. Develop effective ecosystem andlivelihood monitoring and analysis systems
One of the key assumptions of adaptation think-
ing is that the projections of impacts on eco-
hydrological systems are fraught with high
levels of uncertainty. As a result, accurate and
timely monitoring and detection of shifts in key
variables in water quality, quantity and timing
are not perfect means to capture emerging
trends (especially major state-level shifts), but
they can track gradual shifts and, ideally, help
anticipate tipping points. Such systems need
not be expensive or centrally organized, but
they do need to be standardized, effective and
robust (Pittock, 2009; Yu et al., 2009). They
would need to focus concurrently on climate
impacts and human impacts on water resources
with a clear understanding of their differences
in scale – local, regional, national or inter-
national. They should also be affiliated with insti-
tutions that are capable of analysing trends and
explaining those trends to the stakeholders who
need to use this knowledge.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Jamie Pittock for sponsoring
our paper in this issue, and to our colleagues glob-
ally at WWF who have been an inspiration and
motivation to explore the practical problems of
climate adaptation in a freshwater context.
Note
1. Phenologies that are time- or season-sensitive beha-
viours, such as the onset of blooming or the initiation
or cessation of long-distance bird migration.
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