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Adaptation in Action:Options and strategies in Bangkok
S M WahidAdvisor, WB Bangkok CC study
Asian Institute of Technology
Future climate and Bangkok
Changes in temperature
Snow and ice melt
Changes in precipitation and
evapotranspiration
Sea level rise
Changes in watershed runoff
Backwater effect of tides
Changes in flood (depth and duration)
Changes in storm surge
Changes in the
Infrastructure
InhabitantsBuilding and
housingTransportation
Public health
EnergyWater supply and sanitation
Changes in land
subsidence
Climate change scenarios
Description Flood from Precipitation at Return Period
10 year 30 year 100 year
1 Current 2008 C2008-T10 C2008-T30 C2008-T100
2 Future in 2050 with land subsidence C2050-LS-T10 C2050-LS-T30 C2050-LS-T100
3Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, and A1FI
C2050-LS-SR-A1F1-T10
C2050-LS-SR-A1F1-T30
C2050-LS-SR-A1F1-T100
4Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, and B1
C2050-LS-SR-B1-T10
C2050-LS-SR-B1-T30
C2050-LS-SR-B1-T100
5Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, storm surge, and A1FI
C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1F1-T10
C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1F1-T30
C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1F1-T100
6Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, storm surge, and B1
C2050-LS-SR-SS-B1-T100
Notes:•Current 2008 with existing flood protection infrastructures•Future 2050 with the planned flood protection infrastructures•Case A1 FI: temperature increases 1.9oC, precipitation increases 3%, and sea level rises 0.29 m. (from JBIC)•Case B1: temperature increases 1.2oC, precipitation increases 2%, and sea level rises 0.19 m. (from JBIC)•Strom surge: adding 0.61 m (estimated by Watana, 2005) on the crown of the maximum sea level
Flood volume and peak
30 year return period 100 year return period
2008 A1FI B1 2008 A1FI B1
C.2 Gauging Station (Upstream of Bangkok City)
Flood Volume (MCM) 31,258 32,200 31,965 39,960 41,150 40,839
Factor Increase 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.03 1.02
Flood Peak (m 3/sec) 4,801 5,054 4,976 6,853 7,146 7,065
Factor Increase 1.00 1.05 1.04 1.00 1.04 1.03
C.13 Gauging Station (Downstream of Bangkok City)
Flood Volume (MCM) 27,756 28,485 28,235 36,997 38,378 38,019
Factor Increase 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.04 1.03
Flood Peak (m 3/sec) 4,484 4,720 4,646 6,399 6,673 6,598
Factor Increase 1.00 1.05 1.04 1.00 1.04 1.03
Precipitation increase by 3% (A1FI) and 2% (B1) – Flood volumes increase at about the same percentage Flood peaks increase more due to the unequal travel times of flood
Inundated area for 30-Year Flood C2050-LS-T30
C2050-LS-SR-B1
C2050-LS-SR-A1FI
C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI
Increase from 2008 (km2)
18.43
168.16
183.55
193.97
Increase from 2008 (%)
3.35 30.55 33.35 35.24
In terms of flood volume,30-year return period flood in 2008 = flood in 1995
Inundated Area in 2050 Increased from 2008 by:
Land Subsidence (LS) = 3.35%
Increase due to Sea Level Rise (SR)+ B1 = 27.2%
Increase due to Sea Level Rise (SR)+ A1FI = 30%
Increase due to Storm Surge (SS) = 1.89%
Max. inundation for 30-Year Flood
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
Bangkok
Nonthaburi
Pathum Thani
Samut Sakhon
Samut Prakan
Nakhon Pathom
620000
620000
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
7000001480
000
1480
000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
1560
000
1560
000
1580
000
1580
000
Legend
Elevation (m.MSL)
-7 - -5
-5 - -3
-3 - -1
-1 - 0
0 - 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 - 8
8 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
25 - 35
!( Province
Province Boundary
River/Canal Network
Max. Water Depth (cm)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
300 - 400
> 400
Ê0 4 8 12 162
Kilometers
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
Bangkok
Nonthaburi
Pathum Thani
Samut Sakhon
Samut Prakan
Nakhon Pathom
620000
620000
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
7000001480
000
1480
000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
1560
000
1560
000
1580
000
1580
000
Legend
!( Province
Province Boundary
River/Canal Network
Elevation (m.MSL)
-7 - -5
-5 - -3
-3 - -1
-1 - 0
0 - 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 - 8
8 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
25 - 35
Ma. Water Depth (cm)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
300 - 400
> 400
Ê0 4 8 12 162
KilometersC2008-T30 C2050-LS-SR-A1FI-T30
Eastern part - mostly protected except some areas where the crest elevations of dikes are not high enough
Western part crest elevations of dikes are not high enough to protect the flood and sea level rise especially in the west and south of the area
C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30
Storm surge effect into the CP river
Impact assessment
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!P
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!P
G u l f o f T h a i l a n d
36,742
Bang Bo
Bang Phli
Phra Samut Chedi
Mueang Samut Prakan
Bang Sao Thong
Phra Pradaeng
Nong Chok
Lat Krabang
Khlong Sam Wa
Bang Khun Thian
Prawet
Min Buri
Sai Mai
Bang Khae
Lak Si
Taling Chan
Bang Bon
Bang Khen
Chatuchak
Lat Phrao
Bang KapiThawi Watthana
Bueng Kum
Thung Khru
Bang Na
Chom Thong
Suan Luang
Don Mueang
Huai Khwang
Dusit
Phasi Charoen
Saphan Sung
Watthana
Bang Sue
Rat Burana
Khlong Toei
Phra Khanong
Sathon
Pathum Wan
Nong Khaem
Khan Na Yao
Wang Thonglang
Yan Nawa
Bangkok Noi
Bang Phlat Phaya Thai
Thon Buri
Ratchathewi
Bang Kho Laem
Khlong San
Bangkok Yai
Din Daeng
Phra Nakhon
Bang Rak
Pom Prap Sattru Phai
Samphanthawong
Bangkok
Samut Prakarn
Nonthaburi
Samut Sakhon
Chachoengsao
Nakhon Prathom
Pathum Thani
7
15,095
109,829
1,317
735
66,085
25,274
39,978
181,999
1,163
13,558
58,478
106,885
58,491
8,075
10,129
857
148,628
52,425
114,058
3,123
41,004
3,342
75,964
6,162
271,044
8,447
105,891
17,636
88,635
138,272
96,348
87,503
152,272
2,363
16,546
64,336
47,948
35,968
26,075
524
23,601
141,220
39,131
1,155
132,532
50,546
49,935
235,242
14,673
9,564
55,056
27,683
159,845
73,529
3,098
9,479
62,043
186,481
59,618
1,704
134,641
5,692
57,701
1,470
94,044
298,254
7,443
19,219
30,133
125,746
165,546
117,062
109,529
122,672
97,828
6,636
190,772
73,220
54,248
112,68545,090
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
700000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
0 2 4 6 81
Kilometers
Ê
Maximum Water Depth in
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
> 200
LegendNumber of Affected Population(people)Province!P
Province Boundary
District Boundary
Water Body
C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30
C2008-T30
An additional 0.68 million people may be living in flooded area in the future due to climate change
Flooded population
Additional (due to CC) 0.25 million people are from 5 districts (Lak Si,
Sa Thon, Khlong San, Yannawa, Nong Chok)
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!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
!P
G u l f o f T h a i l a n d
Bangkok
Samut Prakarn
Nonthaburi
Samut Sakhon
Chachoengsao
Nakhon Prathom
Pathum Thani
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
700000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
0 2 4 6 81
Kilometers
Ê
Legend
Prov ince!P#* Condensed Housing
Prov ince Boundary
Dis tric t Boundary
Water Body
Maximum Water Depth in
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
> 200
Condensed housing(>94 units/ha or >15 units/rai)
Large daily wage earning population in condensed housing may loose income
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!P
!P
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!P
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!P
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!P
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G u l f o f T h a i l a n d
Bang Bo
Bang Phli
Phra Samut Chedi
Mueang Samut Prakan
Bang Sao Thong
Phra Pradaeng
Nong Chok
Lat Krabang
Khlong Sam Wa
Bang Khun Thian
Prawet
Min Buri
Sai Mai
Bang Khae
Lak Si
Taling Chan
Bang Bon
Bang Khen
Chatuchak
Lat Phrao
Bang KapiThawi Watthana
Bueng Kum
Thung Khru
Bang Na
Chom Thong
Suan Luang
Don Mueang
Huai Khwang
Dusit
Phasi Charoen
Saphan Sung
Watthana
Bang Sue
Rat Burana
Khlong Toei
Phra Khanong
Sathon
Pathum Wan
Nong Khaem
Khan Na Yao
Wang Thonglang
Yan Nawa
Bangkok Noi
Bang Phlat Phaya Thai
Thon Buri
Ratchathewi
Bang Kho Laem
Khlong San
Bangkok Yai
Din Daeng
Phra Nakhon
Bang Rak
Pom Prap Sattru Phai
Samphanthawong
Bangkok
Samut Prakarn
Nonthaburi
Samut Sakhon
Chachoengsao
Nakhon Prathom
Pathum Thani
4
5,774
15,883
2,969
575
32,707
4,211
6,966
18,372
582
2,240
9,560
17,397
1,886
1,466
1,258
28,826
7,691
540
157
19,9286,999
482
943
36,703
11,690
2,094
2,779
15,371
8,021
7,784
23,316
577
20,665
4,84512,930
6,793
10,107
5,223
12,199
602
35,516
13,033
83,479 27,251
1,154
17,874
82,008
14,090
5,051
2,771
17,453
18,069
53,885
26,619
1,043
3,420
20,026
81,299
596
42,019
458
18,702
2,389
19,330
89,643
29,384
5,985
2,966
43,712
54,482
15,844
52,365
25,645
42,766
67,212
32,485
3,567
27,004
40,120
21,668
8,811
14,194
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
700000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
Maximum Water Depth in
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
> 200
0 2 4 6 81
Kilometers
Ê
LegendNumber of Affected Building&Housing(building)Province!P
Province Boundary
District Boundary
Water Body
C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30
C2008-T30
1.16 million buildings will be vulnerable (inundated >10cm for varying number of days;About 1/3 are in Bang Khun Thian, Bang Bon, Bang Khae and Phra Samut Chedi districts0.9 million are residential building
89,000 building will be flooded in Don Muang in future worst case
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G u l f o f T h a i l a n d
Bangkok
Samut Prakarn
Nonthaburi
Samut Sakhon
Chachoengsao
Nakhon Prathom
Pathum Thani
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
700000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
0 2 4 6 81
Kilometers
Ê
Maximum Water Depth in
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
> 200
Legend
Province!PProvince Boundary
District Boundary
Water Body
Hospital Size
LargeH
MediumH
SmallH
Mostly clinics in Bang Khun Thian, Bang Bon, Bang Khae and Phra Samut Chedi districts are affected
P:\08
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G u l f o f T h a i l a n d
North Bangkok Power Plant
South Bangkok Power Plant
Samut Prakarn Cogen
MEA Main OfficeBangkok
Samut Prakarn
Nonthaburi
Samut Sakhon
Chachoengsao
Nakhon Prathom
Pathum Thani
MEA Min Buri District
MEA Bang Phi District
MEA Rat Burana District
MEA Samut Prakarn District
MEA Bang Khen District
MEA Bang Khun Thian District
MEA Bang Kapi District
MEA Thon Buri District
MEA Sam Sen District
MEA Yannawa District
MEA Bang Yai District
MEA Khlong Toei District
MEA Nonthaburi District
MEA Wat Leap District
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
700000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
Legend
Province!PProvince Boundary
District Boundary
Serviced District Boundary
"A Power Plant
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# Electrical Substation
Maximum Water Depth in
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
> 200
0 2 4 6 81
Kilometers
Ê
NO electrical substation is flooded
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G u l f o f T h a i l a n d
Bang Bo
Bang Phli
Phra Samut Chedi
Mueang Samut Prakan
Bang Sao Thong
Phra Pradaeng
Nong Chok
Lat Krabang
Khlong Sam Wa
Bang Khun Thian
Prawet
Min Buri
Sai Mai
Bang Khae
Lak Si
Taling Chan
Bang Bon
Bang Khen
Chatuchak
Lat Phrao
Bang Kapi
Thawi Watthana
Bueng Kum
Thung Khru
Bang Na
Chom Thong
Suan Luang
Don Mueang
Huai Khwang
Dusit
Phasi Charoen
Saphan Sung
Watthana
Bang Sue
Rat Burana
Khlong Toei
Phra Khanong
Sathon
Pathum Wan
Nong Khaem
Khan Na Yao
Wang Thonglang
Yan Nawa
Bangkok Noi
Bang PhlatPhaya Thai
Thon Buri
Ratchathewi
Bang Kho Laem
Khlong San
Bangkok Yai
Din Daeng
Phra Nakhon
Bang Rak
Pom Prap Sattru Phai
Samphanthawong
Bangkok
Samut Prakarn
Nonthaburi
Samut Sakhon
Chachoengsao
Nakhon Prathom
Pathum Thani
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
700000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
0 2 4 6 81
Kilometers
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Legend
Province!PProvince Boundary
District Boundary
Water Body
Solid Waste Transfer StationzDistribution Pump Station">Transmission Pump Station^Water Treatment PlantUT
Maximum Water Depth in
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
> 200
Nong Kham solid waste transfer station will be flooded with depth of 50-100 cm. in future the worst case
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G u l f o f T h a i l a n d
£¤3
£¤7£¤9
£¤2
£¤35 £¤34
£¤304
£¤304
£¤302
£¤1
Borom Rat Chonnani Rd.
Phet Kasem Rd.
Rama II Rd.
Suk Sawat Rd.
Sukhumwit Rd.
Bang Na-Trat Rd.Burapaviti Expressway
Suwinthawong Rd.
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Ram Inthra Rd.Kaset-Nawamin Rd.
Bangkok
Samut Prakarn
Nonthaburi
Samut Sakhon
Chachoengsao
Nakhon Prathom
Pathum Thani
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
700000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
0 2 4 6 81
Kilometers
Ê
Maximum Water Depth in
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
> 200
LegendProvince!PToll PlazaÛ
Province Boundary
Water Body
Primary Highway
Nation Highway within the Province
Secondary Highway
Highway Linking the Provinces
Local Road
Intercity Motorway
Outer Ring Road
Expressway
Road Project
BTS
MRTA
Mass Rapid Transit Project
Change* due to CC in 2050
Inundated area (km2) + 175
Inundated area (%) + 6.9
Flooded pop. (million) + 0.68
Number of flooded residential unit + 200,000
Number of flooded commercial unit + 48,000
Number of flooded industrial unit + 5,000
Number of hospitals/clinics in flood prone area + 33
Road (km) in flood prone area + 450
*Change refers to difference between with and without CC (including SR+SS) in 2050
Impact types
• Direct damage- measurable and often relates to the replacement value of destroyed immovable assets and stocks occur at the time of the disaster or within a short time.
• Indirect damage- not physical but can have negative effect on the economy income loss due to temporary suspension of business or
income loss because of failure to operate normal economic activities - are typical examples of indirect damage.
occur over a period of weeks after the disaster has struck, depending on the time required to achieve “normalization” of activities
Assessed sectors
Damage* type
Sector Damage mechanism
Direct damage
Residential unit Damage to building and asset
Commercial unit Damage to building and asset
Industrial unit Damage to building and asset
Transportation, Public health facilities, Energy, WSS
No direct damage to these infrastructures expected in the future
Indirect damage
Population Loss of income
Commercial unit Loss of income
Industrial unit Loss of income
Transportation Negligible loss of revenue; not included in the assessment
Public health Additional cost of medical care
Energy Loss due to non-operation
Water supply and sanitation Loss of sale
* Only tangible damage taken in the assessment
Direct damage
Flood Depth(cm)
Damage Rate (% of value)
Building Asset
0 – 10 0 0
10 – 50 3 1
50 – 100 5 8
100 – 200 7.5 15
> 200 9 19
TypeAverage Unit Value (Baht)
Residential Commercial Industrial
BMA
Building 882,865 2,768,000 4,555,000
Assets 328,889 1,829,000 3,725,000
Samut Prakarn
Building 810,242 2,768,000 7,787,000
Assets 220,180 1,829,000 3,949,000
Direct damage = No. of affected buildings x Damage rate x Unit value of building and asset
Source: Royal Irrigation Department (RID)
Unit value - average book valueResidential units (building) - legal right registration; Residential units (asset) - Population and Housing Census, 2000; based on 12 durable household appliances; increased by 10 per cent to account for other vulnerable assetsCommercial units (building and assets) - NSO’s 2006 Business Trade and Services SurveyIndustrial units (building and assets) - NSO’s 2007 Industrial CensusDepreciation rate - Department of Treasury
Indirect damage - Population
• Economic hardship of the affected population due to flood People may not have access to their work
places
• Assumptions Daily wage earners living in the condensed
community (slum) would be vulnerable to the indirect impact of flooding.
People living in the condensed community has income below the poverty line of 68 baht/day/person (NESDB, 2007)
• Income loss 68 baht/day/person x number of affected
condensed community (slum) dwellers x flood duration
Indirect damage - commerce
• Loss of income due to business suspension=No. of affected commercial establishment x
Income loss/day/establishment x Flood duration
• Income (value added) = 8,711 baht/day/establishment NSO’s 2006 Business Trade and Services
Survey
• Assume during business suspension due to flooding
10% of average business operating cost (3,781 baht/day) will not be incurred; SO..
• Income loss = 4,930 baht/day/establishment
Indirect damage - industry
• Loss of income due to industry closure during flooding
Industrial income loss = No. of affected industrial establishment x Income loss/day/establishment x Flood duration
• Average value added income = 20,274 and 63,014 baht/day/industry for Bangkok and Samut Prakarn respectively
• Assumption –during industrial closure 10% of average operating costs - 5,601 and 18,971 baht Bangkok and Samut Prakarn respectively - will not be paid
• Income loss - 14,673 and 44,043 baht/day/industry in Bangkok and Samut Prakarn respectively.
Indirect impact – water supply
• Dysfunctional when the flood water rises two meters above the surrounding ground surface Net revenue loss = No. affected
household/establishment x Water supply/household x Water sales rate x Flood duration
• Water supply = 0.48 m3/day/household (residential unit) = 3.71 m3/day/establishment (non-residential unit)
• Water sales rate = 10.00 baht/m3 (Residential unit) = 13.75 baht/m3 (Non-residential unit)
• Source - 5-year record of the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWA)
Indirect impact - sanitation
• Wastewater treatment system and solid waste management system – operation suspended when the flood water rises two meters above the surrounding ground surface Loss on operation = Affected population (no.) x waste generation
rate x Treatment/disposal cost x Flood duration
• Generation rate Wastewater = 0.37 m3/capita/day Solid waste = 1 kg/capita/day
• Wastewater treatment cost = 12.17 baht/m3
• Solid waste disposal cost = 454.75 baht/ton• Source - Department of Drainage and Sewerage (DDS),
BMA record in 2007
Indirect impact – public health
• Additional medical attention needed for.. 12.5 % population (50-100 cm flood depth) 25 % population (101-200 cm flood depth) 37.5 % population (>200 cm flood depth)
• Average health care cost (Health and Welfare Survey
by National Statistical Office, 2005)
= 7,582 baht/person/admission (Bangkok)
= 3,786 baht/person/admission (Samut Prakarn)
Indirect impact – energy sector
• No direct impact to the power generation plants relocated outside BMR in the future
• No direct impact to the power substations flood depth remains below 1 m depth which is
considered by the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA)
• Indirect impact loss of revenue due to electricity shut down,
when flood depth > 1m (Source – MEA)
Impact cost: summaryImpact type Sector Scenario
C2008-T30 C2050-LS-T30 C2050-LS-SLR-A1FI-T30
C2050-LS-SLR-SS-A1FI-T30
Direct Building and housing
million Baht 27,282 75,500 105,576 113,679
Increase from 2008 1.0 2.8 3.9 4.2
Indirect (income loss)
Population million Baht 92 102 137 140
Increase from 2008 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5
Commerce million Baht) 4,077 14,940 20,883 21,671
Increase from 2008 1.0 3.7 5.1 5.3
Industry million Baht 2,640 7,066 9,397 9,726
Increase from 2008 1.0 2.7 3.6 3.7
Energy million Baht 254 598 1,104 1,145
Increase from 2008 1.0 2.4 4.3 4.5
WSS million Baht 16 36 39 40
Increase from 2008 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.5
Indirect (health care)
million Baht 934 1,107 1,893 2,012
Increase from 2008 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.2
Total
million Baht 35,302 99,364 139,050 148,434
Increase from 2008 1.00 2.81 3.94 4.20
Impact costs
ResidenceCommerce
IndustryPublic Health
EnergyWater Supply &
SanitationSystem
55,432
45,945
12,302
140
21,671
9,726
2,012
1,145
40
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Damage Cost (millions of baht)
Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30
Indirect Impact
Direct Impact
Damage to Building 113,679 MBaht Income Loss of Daily Wage Earner 140 Income Loss of Commerce 21,671 Income Loss of Industry 9,726 Health Care Cost 2,012 Income Loss of Energy 1,145 Income Loss of Water Supply and Sanitation System 40
Total Damage Cost 148,412 MBaht
Impact cost: summary
• Largest affected sector - direct damage of building (residential, commercial and industrial) - about 77 per cent of the total damage cost
• Income loss of commercial and industrial sectors would account for approximately 15 and 7 per cent of the total damage cost respectively
• Under the current condition, impact costs would be 35,302 million baht which might rise to 148,434 million baht in the future worst case scenario over four fold increase in the impact cost
Adaptation study
Structural measures - ongoing
• Polder system Dikes, drainage canal,
regulator and pump facilities
• Water retention area (Monkey Cheek)
• On-going flood protection efforts not have enough to cope
with A1FI climate change scenario at the return period higher than 10 years.
Constructing Retaining Wall onthe Bank of Chao Phraya River
Phrakanong Pumping Station
Rama IX Retention Pond, Pathum Thani can retard the flow and retain about 16 million cubic meters of flood water
Large Storage Dam
• The Kaeng Sua Ten Dam(1,125 MCM, CA 3,583 km2)on the Yom River Controversial social and
environmental impact
• Other large storage dam lack suitable site due to rapid
economic development strong protest from the
environmentalist
Bhumibol Dam on the Ping River
Sirikit Dam on the Nan River
Structural measures – earlier proposal
Barrage at the River Mouth
The Thames Barrier Project (England)
The Maeslant Storm Surge Barrier Project(Netherlands)
• Proposed by the RID• Costly - 131,020 million baht in 1998• Social and environmental problems• Can interfere navigation
• Storm surge Barrier in the Upper Gulf of Thailand
• controversial among local experts
Structural measures – earlier proposal
Diversion Channel• RID proposal - from
Ayutthaya to the Gulf of Thailand (The Chao Phraya River II project) high investment cost (42,329
million baht in 1998 for capacity of 1,100 m3/sec)
impact on social and environment especially land acquisition problem
• RID (2006) alternate proposal – improve several existing
irrigation canals to divert water Improve pumping capacity at
stations on the right bank of the Bang Pakong River and on the coast
Raphi Phat canal capacity will be improved from 120 to be 400 m3/sec to divert flood water from the Pasak River
Chornrahan Phichit Pumping Station(120 m3/sec)
Structural measures – earlier proposal
Sea Wave Protection
Bamboo Type
3 Row Concrete Pole Type
Rock-pile Embankment Type
Coastal Erosion and Wave ProtectionT-groins Type • More than 760 m of the Bang Khun Thian
shoreline have been eroded• Local solution
bamboo barrier to weaken the strength of the waves hitting the coast and increase silt deposition
• BMA plan 10 T-groins along the 4.7 km shoreline mangrove trees budget - estimated at 388.85 million baht
• Department of Marine and Coastal Resources (DMCR)• studying on the Master Plan and
Practice to Solve the Problem of Coastal Erosion on Shoreline along the Upper Gulf of Thailand.
Structural measures – other practice
!(
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Bangkok
Nonthaburi
Pathum Thani
Samut Sakhon
Samut Prakan
Nakhon Pathom
620000
620000
640000
640000
660000
660000
680000
680000
700000
7000001480
000
1480
000
1500
000
1500
000
1520
000
1520
000
1540
000
1540
000
1560
000
1560
000
1580
000
1580
000
Legend
!( Province
Province Boundary
Dike
River/Canal Network
Elevation (m.MSL)
-7 - -5
-5 - -3
-3 - -1
-1 - 0
0 - 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 - 8
8 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
> 25
Max.Water Depth (cm)
0 - 10
10 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
300 - 400
> 400
Ê0 4 8 12 162
Kilometers
Dike improvement (up to 1.5 m):235 km on the east160 km on the west
Dike improvement (up to 1.5 m):235 km on the east160 km on the west
Increasing pumping capacity and canal improvement:Phasi Charoeng from 18 to be 550 m3/sec canal 27 kmSanam Chai from 36 to be 350 m3/sec canal 32.5 kmKhun Rat Phinit Chai from 30 to be 250 m3/sec canal 14.5 km
Increasing pumping capacity and canal improvement:Phasi Charoeng from 18 to be 550 m3/sec canal 27 kmSanam Chai from 36 to be 350 m3/sec canal 32.5 kmKhun Rat Phinit Chai from 30 to be 250 m3/sec canal 14.5 km
Coastal erosion protection:36 km on the west43 km on the east
Coastal erosion protection:36 km on the west43 km on the east
Proposed Structural Measuresfor 100-year Return Period
Max. future inundation (30-yr flood)
Inundated area – reduced - 744 to 362 km2 ordecreased 382 km2 or51 %.
Without Proposed Adaptation measures
With Proposed Adaptation measures
Feasibility study and detail design (3 years) -148 mil. BahtConstruction cost (5 years) - 49,380 mil. BahtO & M (30 years) - 874 mil. Baht/year
Economic Evaluation- Discounted rate - 10%- Net Present Value (NPV) - 16,256 mil. Baht- Benefit-cost Ratio (B/C) - 1.6- Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) - 16.26%
Evaluation of the proposal
Average annual benefit = average annual flood damage reductionConversion, Cost -> Economic cost (shadow price recommended by the WB – adopted)The B/C and EIRR reveal an attractive investment even without considering the benefits accruing from reduction of intangible damages (economic and social)
Non-structural measures
• Reservoir operation during flood times – rules of cooperation among Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), the Royal
Irrigation Department (RID), the Department of Water Resources (DWR), the Meteorological Department (TMD) and BMA
• Pursue Groundwater Extraction Control regulations to reduce land subsidence
• Flood Forecasting and Warning System Well developed (by BMA, EGAT, MD, DWR, RID) Improve accuracy of forecast and disseminate more frequently Develop consistent Guidelines for Flood Warning
Non-structural measures
• Flood Insurance Framework for flood insurance Institutional arrangements
• Disaster Management Public Awareness and Education Participation in International Disaster
Management Networks Effective Damage Assessment Application of Community-Centered Approach Highlight on Preventive Approach
• Mainstreaming Climate Change City and Land Use Control and Guidelines
Non-structural measures
• Flood Fighting Activity Assurance of funds for operation of suitable flood
fighting system with enough equipment, materials, and manpower through the decision of protection level;
Periodical training of inhabitants expected to join the flood fighting works;
Promulgation of a law on flood fighting to clarify the administration structure and job responsibilities of all concerned agencies, resulting in a well organized and more effective flood fighting.
Institutional mechanism: highlight
• Thailand Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Council Under the Office of Prime Minister chaired by a Deputy
Prime Minister Representation - main departments and ministries
• To ensure strong institutional support
Responsibilities• Establish sub-committees and/or working groups to carry on the
proposed adaptation measures• Conduct scientific study and maintain knowledgebase• Set up climate strategy of Thailand• Raise public awareness on climate change• Coordinate CC activities
Adaptation: implementation schedule
Project Short-term Med-term Long-term
Name Lead agency Other participating
agencies
Area 2009-2012 2013-2017 2018-2050
Structural Measures
Coastal Erosion Protection DMCR DDS, HDD BMA, SP, SS, Chachoens
FS + DD CS O&M
Flood Protection System Improvement RID DDS, EGAT, DWR
CP Basin FS + DD CS O&M
Bangkok Drainage System Improvement DDS RID BMA FS + DD CS O&M
Non-structural Measures
Establishment of the TCCIAC BMA All Thailand Policy
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Strategy BMA All Thailand FS IP
Groundwater Extraction Control and Land Subsidence Suppression DGR DDS, RSTD BMR FS IP
Flood Disaster Response and Management DDPM RID, DDS, TMD, NDWC
CP Basin FS IP
Flood Insurance OIC DAE, DOF, RID, DDS
CP Basin FS IP
City and Land Use Control and Guideline DCP DDS, DE, DPW, TTD
BMA FS IP
FS = Feasibility Study DD = Detailed Design CS = Construction O&M = Operation and Maintenance IP = ImplementTCCIAC = Thailand Climate Change Impact and Adaptation CouncilBangkok Metropoitan Administration (BMA); Department of Marine and Coastal Resources (DMCR), MoNRE; Hydrogaraphic Department (HDD), Thai Navy; Department of Drainage and Sewerage (DDS), BMA; The Royal Irrigation Department (RID), MOAC; The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT); Department of Water Resources (DWR), MoNRE; Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD); The Meteorological Department (TMD); National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC); Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM); Office of Insurance Commission (OIC); Department of Fisheries (DOF); Department of Environment (DE); Department of Public Works (DPW); Traffic and Transportation Department (TTD)
Summary….
• Generated science-based knowledge of socioeconomic situation and climatic factors
• Developed mathematical model for simulating climate change impact the on hydrology
• Assessed easily interpretable climate change impact for 2050 under different scenarios
• Recommended suitable adaptation options
Thank you
An upcoming event…
Please contact:
Dr. S M. Wahid
Tel: +66 89 44 00 906
Tel: +662 524 5561
Fax: +662 524 6425
Email: [email protected]