Adaptation Strategy and Plan WCC CombinedDec · The SKM logo trade mark is a registered trade mark of Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Wollongong City Council

n Final n 27 July2009

This report has been partly funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change under its Local Adaptation Pathways Program. It was prepared by Sinclair Knight Merz on behalf of Wollongong City Council who owns the copyright for this document.

The SKM logo trade mark is a registered trade mark of Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd.

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Wollongong City Council

n Final n 27 July 2009

Sinclair Knight Merz ABN 37 001 024 095 100 Christie Street PO Box 164 St Leonards NSW Australia 1590 Tel: +61 2 9928 2100 Fax: +61 2 9928 2500 Web: www.skmconsulting.com

LIMITATION: This report has been prepared on behalf of and for the exclusive use of Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd’s Client, and is subject to and issued in connection with the provisions of the agreement between Sinclair Knight Merz and its Client. Sinclair Knight Merz accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for or in respect of any use of or reliance upon this report by any third party.

http://www.skmconsulting.com


COPYRIGHT: The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Wollongong City Council. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Wollongong City Council constitutes an infringement of copyright.

LIMITATION: The sole purpose of this report and the associated services performed by Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd (SKM) is to UNDERTAKE A RISK ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION PLAN in accordance with the scope of services set out in the contract between SKM and Southern Councils Group on behalf of Wollongong City Council. That scope of services, as described in this report, was developed with Southern Councils Group and Wollongong City Council. In preparing this report, SKM has relied upon, and presumed accurate, certain information (or absence thereof) provided by the Client and other sources. Except as otherwise stated in the report, SKM has not attempted to verify the accuracy or completeness of any such information. If the information is subsequently determined to be false, inaccurate or incomplete then it is possible that our observations and conclusions as expressed in this report may change. SKM derived the data in this report from a variety of sources. The sources are identified at the time or times outlined in this report. The passage of time, manifestation of latent conditions or impacts of future events may require further examination of the project and subsequent data analysis, and re-evaluation of the data, findings, observations and conclusions expressed in this report. SKM has prepared this report in accordance with the usual care and thoroughness of the consulting profession, for the sole purpose of the project and by reference to applicable standards, procedures and practices at the date of issue of this report. For the reasons outlined above, however, no other warranty or guarantee, whether expressed or implied, is made as to the data, observations and findings expressed in this report. This report should be read in full and no excerpts are to be taken as representative of the findings. No responsibility is accepted by SKM for use of any part of this report in any other context. This report has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of, Wollongong City Council and is subject to, and issued in connection with, the provisions of the agreement between SKM and Southern Councils Group. SKM accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this report by any third party.

SINCLAIR KNIGHT MERZ

PAGE i

Contents 1. Introduction 1

1.1. Background and Context 1 1.2. Purpose and Scope 1 1.3. Southern Councils Group and Member Councils 2 1.4. Methodology/Approach 3 1.5. Communication and Consultation 3

2. Climate Change Risk Assessment 4 2.1. Climate Change Scenarios 4 2.2. Risk Assessment Workshops 4 2.3. Results 4

3. Climate Change Adaptation 6 3.1. Defining Climate Change Adaptation 6 3.2. Adaptation and Mitigation 6 3.3. Why should Councils prepare an adaptation plan? 7 3.4. Adaptation process 8 3.5. What do Councils need from an adaptation strategy and plan? 10

4. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 12 4.1. Purpose 12 4.2. Vision 13 4.3. Objectives 13 4.4. Approach for Adaptation Action development 14

5. Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 15 5.1. General 15 5.2. Adaptation Actions 15 5.3. Key adaptation actions 16

6. Implementation of the Strategy and Plan 24 6.1. Implementation 24 6.2. Monitoring Strategy 24 6.3. Review of Strategy 24 6.4. Next Steps – Communication and Consultation 25

7. References 27

Appendix A Detailed Adaptation Action Plans 29 A.1 Planning and Development 30 A.2 Environment 32

SINCLAIR KNIGHT MERZ PAGE ii

A.3 Community and Corporate Services 35 A.4 Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services 38

Appendix B Risk Assessment Report 41

Executive Summary 5

8. The project 6 8.1. Objective 6 8.2. Method 7

9. Risk Context Establishment 9 9.1. Organisational Objectives 9 9.2. Stakeholders 9 9.3. Risk Assessment Criteria 9 9.4. Key Elements 9 9.5. Climate Change Scenarios 10

10. Risk – Identification, Analysis and Evaluation 12 10.1. Risk Identification 12 10.2. Risk Analysis 12 10.3. Risk Evaluation 12 10.4. Further investigation 12 10.5. Uncertainties 12 10.6. Risk Assessment Appraisal 13

11. Risk Assessment Findings 15 Extreme risk 18 Planning and Development 18 Environment 19 Corporate and Community Services 19 Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services 20 High risks 20 Planning and Development 20 Environment 20 Community and Corporate Services 20 Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services 21 Distribution of climate change risks 21 Summary 22

12. Communication and Consultation 23 12.1. Communications Plan 23 12.2. Internal and External Stakeholders 23

SINCLAIR KNIGHT MERZ PAGE iii

12.3. Ongoing Communication with/from Stakeholders 25 12.4. Further communications of final report 25

13. References 28

Appendix 1: Historical Climate 29

Appendix 2: Climate change scenarios 37

Appendix 3: SCG Risk Analysis Criteria 46

Appendix 4 : Register of risks to planning and development 50

Appendix 5 : Register of risks to environment 55

Appendix 6 : Register of risks to community and corporate services 61

Appendix 7 : Register of risks to infrastructure 68

Appendix C Risks Table 74

Appendix D Adaptation Matrix 79

Appendix E Workshop Delegate Lists 81

SINCLAIR KNIGHT MERZ PAGE iv

Document history and status Revision Date issued Reviewed by Approved by Date approved Revision type

0 29 May 2009 Tony Church Amy Smith 29 May 2009 DRAFT

1 27 July 2009 Tony Church Amy Smith 20 July 2009 FINAL

Distribution of copies Revision Copy no Quantity Issued to

0 1 Electronic Damian Gibbins (WCC), Pat Knight (SCG)

1 1 Electronic Damian Gibbins, (WCC), Pat Knight (SCG)

Printed: 7 December 2009

Last saved: 31 August 2009 10:36 AM

File name: Document4

Author: Amy Smith

Project manager: Amy Smith

Name of organisation: Southern Councils Group

Name of project: Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Name of document:

Document version: Final

Project number: EN02523

SINCLAIR KNIGHT MERZ PAGE 1

1. Introduction 1.1. Background and Context

Climate change has been recognised internationally as a significant issue with the potential to have a major impact on human and natural systems. The Australian Government Department of Climate Change (DCC) was established on 3 December 2007 to lead the development and coordination of Australia’s climate change policies. They are responsible for policy advice, program implementation and project delivery in three areas including; mitigation through domestic emissions reduction, adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change and helping to shape a global solution through Australia’s international climate change strategy (DCC Corporate Plan, 2009-10).

At a state level, the NSW Government Department of Environment and Climate Change (DECC) was established to provide a broader organisation able to respond to the challenges presented by climate change and further progress reforms in the sustainable management of the states land and water resources. In support of the Australian Government DCC commitment to climate change action, DECC are currently developing a Climate Action Plan, which will be the key NSW policy document setting out the strategic direction for government climate action over the next five years. The plan is aimed at getting communities and businesses ‘climate ready’ to deal with the challenges posed by climate change.

The role of local government includes the provision of local community governance, leadership, policy setting and decision making and as such can work with the community to adapt to the physical, environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change. Although a three tiered Government response is required to address climate change, it is often local government who are closest to communities and the immediate impacts of climate change.

This project has been funded by a grant from the Australian Government’s Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP). The Australian Government’s LAPP was established specifically to provide local government with resources to assist in assessing risks from climate change and developing an Adaptation Action Plan. The funding was provided to Wollongong City Council to enable it to participate in the project.

1.2. Purpose and Scope

Climate change will present a number of risks and opportunities to Council, which will need to be managed or capitalised on to secure the ongoing prosperity of the region. The Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (CCASAP) has been prepared to provide a coordinated and regional approach to tackling the challenges which climate change will present.


The purpose of the CCASAP is to provide guidance to Council on how to respond and adapt to climate change risks which have been identified as part of this project. The two components of the document are described below.

The adaptation action plan focuses on addressing extreme and high level risks resulting from climate change, identified through a risk identification process which informed an earlier stage of the project. Other risks identified as being tolerable or low level risks are not addressed as part of this Strategy. In some cases risks were found to be similar in nature and severity and were combined to produce a relevant summary risk for this adaptation plan.

1.3. Southern Councils Group and Member Councils

The Southern Councils Group (SCG) is a voluntary association of seven Local Government Authorities (Bega Valley, Eurobodalla, Kiama, Shellharbour, Shoalhaven, Wingecarribee and Wollongong). The group was established in 2003, although there has been regional collaboration amongst a number of Illawarra Councils since 1975. The SCG mission statement is as follows:

"To promote and foster the sustainable development of the Illawarra and South Coast by building on its diverse economic natural and cultural heritage through member council co-operation."

(SCG Strategic Plan, 2006-2009)

SKM has developed CCASAPs for Shellharbour and Kiama concurrently with the preparation of this CCASAP for Wollongong City Council. The SCG has facilitated this coordinated approach. SCG has a significant role to play in facilitating climate change adaptation across its member councils by coordinating activities, sharing information and providing a platform for advocating to state and Australian government.


1.4. Methodology/Approach

The CCASAP has been prepared following the completion of two project stages. The project has been undertaken in accordance with the broader methodology developed in Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government (1Australian Greenhouse Office, 2006).

1.5. Communication and Consultation

The CCASAP has been prepared in consultation with Wollongong Council, in addition to a number of external stakeholders. To maintain consistency with the risk assessment workshops, the same delegates were invited to attend the adaptation planning sessions. These were held between 27 April and 7 May 2009 and a list of attendees is provided in Appendix E.

1 Now the Department of Climate Change


2. Climate Change Risk Assessment 2.1. Climate Change Scenarios

Two climate change scenarios were selected for investigation in the risk assessment, 2050 and 2070. The predicted changes in key climate variables are summarised in Table 1 Climate Change Scenarios with details provided in the Risk Assessment Report (Appendix B). Predictions were reported based on the following information;

n DECC (2008) ‘Summary of climate change impacts – Illawarra region’;

n CSIRO (2007) ‘Climate Change in Australia’ (based on the IPCC fourth assessment report)

n Table 1 Climate Change Scenarios

Climate Variable 2050 2070

Temperature + 1.5 to + 2 C + 2 to + 4 C

Rainfall -10% to -5% -10% to -5%

Evapotranspiration + 4% to + 8% + 4% to + 8%

Sea Level Rise + 0.3m +0.5m

2.2. Risk Assessment Workshops

Risks were identified through two workshops held 5 February and 10 February 2009. These workshops identified, analysed and evaluated climate change risks based on the following themes; planning and development, environment, infrastructure and infrastructure services and corporate and community services which reflect the core responsibilities of participant Councils. The workshops were attended by key Council staff representing a range of disciplines, and external stakeholders from government agencies, emergency services etc. The findings of the risk assessment process were circulated to participants and Council Officers. Following their review, the report was sent to the Department of Climate Change (DCC) for consideration and comment.

2.3. Results

Wollongong City Council identified a total of 75 risks across all functional areas, with approximately 70% classified as extreme or high.


The high and extreme risks identified in the Risk Assessment Workshop were refined during the adaptation workshop. This was undertaken to rationalise a number of risks which were similar in nature and risk rank, and which would have a similar proposed adaptation actions. The adaptation workshop also provided an opportunity for delegates to reflect on the number of risks identified as ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ and following this process, some risks were excluded from the adaptation planning phase. Appendix C provides information on this transition process between the two project stages.


3. Climate Change Adaptation 3.1. Defining Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change adaptation is defined as:

“the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate changes or their effects; which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”.

(Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government, 2009)

There are three main types of adaptation (Figure 1). This project is centred on planned adaptation which follows recognition from Councils that climate change will occur, and that management of the associated risks is required.

n Figure 1 Types of Adaptation

(2Australian Greenhouse Office, 2007).

3.2. Adaptation and Mitigation

The focus of this Strategy is climate change adaptation rather than climate change mitigation. Climate change mitigation relates to management and reduction of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Over 220 Councils in Australia are actively pursuing strategies to

2 Now Department of Climate Change


reduce their corporate and community greenhouse gas emissions through the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) program. While Councils have devoted significant time and resources over the past decade to reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is only more recently that there has been a focus to adapt and prepare for predicted climatic change and variability (ICLEI, 2008).

Whilst it is recognised that mitigation and adaptation should be considered simultaneously, this strategy is directed towards developing adaptation measures. Adaptation actions are essentially management responses to risks associated with climate change which exploit existing opportunities and are focussed towards sustainable outcomes. Planned adaptation actions often complement existing controls and practices which Council use to manage their operations (for example, monitoring programs, flood risk mapping, design standards, etc.). In taking a proactive approach to climate adaptation planning through the development of a Strategy and Action Plan, Council have the potential to reduce the costs of climate change impacts, provided the response measures are carefully considered and implemented.

3.3. Why should Councils prepare an adaptation plan?

Councils have a legal, social and economic responsibility to their local community to adequately plan for, and adapt to, risks posed by climate change. Local councils are governed under the NSW Local Government Act which has the following charter:

“to provide directly or on behalf of other levels of government, after due consideration, adequate, equitable and appropriate services and facilities for the community and to ensure that those services and facilities are managed efficiently and effectively.”

In preparing an adaptation plan, Councils are taking a responsible and proactive approach to safeguarding the future of their communities and assets. This is in line with Councils city vision:

“An innovative, prosperous and sustainable City offering its people, visitors and investors the highest standards of environment, community life, services and infrastructure.”

There are number of reasons why Council should prepare an adaptation strategy, which are highlighted in Figure 2.


n Figure 2 Reasons to undertake a Climate Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Climate change adaptation planning is a forum to respond to community concerns regarding climate change and to increase community awareness. It can also be used as a mechanism to increase the capacity of councils and other authorities to respond to climate change risks by increasing access to education and encouraging information sharing and working in collaboration with other agencies. Fostering a strategic, regional response will not only assist in long term adaptation planning, but also increase efficiencies in responding to emergency responses during extreme weather events, such as bushfires, flooding, strong winds.

An issues paper prepared by Griffith University (2007) indicates that local governments are at risk of incurring legal liability if they fail to take reasonable steps to take into account the likely effects of climate change. This paper recommended that local government take into account relevant planning policies regarding flooding, bush fire and landslide, referral agencies advice and relevant Australian and State Government climate change strategies when making policies and decisions potentially subject to climate change implications.

3.4. Adaptation process

The development of the CCASAP included investigation of adaptation options which would be considered appropriate to address the high and extreme risks identified. Adaptation actions can be formed by considering a suite of adaptation tools, as illustrated in Figure 3.


n Figure 3 Adaptation

Tools

During the workshop process, delegates were asked to nominate three adaptation actions in response to climate change risks (in general) or by considering one specific risk. The results of this exercise are shown in Figure 4 Distribution of Adaptation Tools selected. The majority of responses placed most importance on the planning, engaging and informing tools for adaptation. This supports the strategic framework which has been designed for climate change adaptation. It is also conclusive that combinations of tools are often required to develop adaptation actions.


n Figure 4 Distribution of Adaptation Tools selected

3.5. What do Councils need from an adaptation strategy and plan?

During the workshops conducted in each LGA, there was much discussion around how the adaptation plan can and will be implemented. It is important to Councils that the plan can be easily integrated into the current planning framework, therefore allowing facilitation into Council business. To achieve this goal effectively, the adaptation plan has been designed to sit within an over-arching strategy which provides the general direction of climate adaptation for Councils. This design seeks to align the implementation of the plan with Councils existing planning and reporting framework, which is currently being updated. The key attributes required for the Adaptation Strategy and Plan are;

ü Clear actions which can be assigned to Council departments for ownership

ü Measurable actions which can be linked to targets and performance criteria

ü Timeline driven to ensure actions are implemented



4. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 4.1. Purpose

The Climate Change Adaptation Strategy will provide Councils with a framework to undertake climate change adaptation actions. It recognises that for climate adaptation to be effective, Councils must enhance internal integration, build relationships with State and Australian Governments and coordinate with external stakeholders from business, industry and community services. It also recognises that before Council can implement adaptation actions, consideration must be given to the process of endorsement to ensure the plan gains leverage for implementation.

A new planning and reporting framework (Figure 5) for NSW local government has been introduced. These reforms replace the former Management Plan and Social Plan with an integrated framework. It also includes a new requirement to prepare a long-term Community Strategic Plan and Resourcing Strategy. The new system recognises that communities do not exist in isolation – they are part of a larger natural, social, economic and political environment that influences and, to a large extent, shapes future direction (Draft Planning and Reporting Guidelines for local government in NSW, 2009). If Councils are to embrace the challenges posed by climate change, the adaptation strategy must be aligned within this framework, where it may be considered to be included as a statutory requirement. This will allow the adaptation actions to be executed, monitored and reviewed in line with reviewing climate change risks and other government operations.

n Figure 5 Planning and Reporting Framework


4.2. Vision

The climate change adaptation strategy has been prepared to:

4.3. Objectives

The main objectives of the strategy are to:

n Promote a cultural shift towards considering climate changes risks in Council's long term planning, financial management, operations and service delivery;

n Utilise SCG as a vehicle to lobby to all levels of government to support adaptation actions;

n Engage with the local community to increase awareness of climate changes risks and encourage ownership of initiatives;

n Build on existing links and relationships between all levels of Government, volunteer groups and organisations to deliver a consistent approach to adaptation.

The strategy framework emphasises the process which should be considered to gain Council endorsement to the suggested adaptation actions developed in the plan. It recognises that this is the first step to planning for climate change adaptation and Councils need to start with planning to implement changes before they can advocate to government bodies to seek financial assistance. A strong planning focus will enable a strong foundation to implement other adaptation responses, as set out in Figure 6 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Framework.

"protect the diversity of the Illawarra region by taking a proactive approach in adapting to climate change; one which seeks to minimise climate change risks and capitalise on opportunities raised, by promoting an integrated response from all levels of Government, businesses and the local community to safeguard the economic, environmental and social sustainability of the region.”


n Figure 6 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Framework

4.4. Approach for Adaptation Action development

Development of adaptation actions utilised the tools described above to address high and extreme risks identified in the risk assessment. Workshop delegates were asked to select adaptation options from a predefined list (Appendix D) or develop actions within the workshop forum.

PLAN

Climate Change

Adaptation Strategy

Climate Change

Adaptation Strategy

Review

Review


5. Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 5.1. General

The Adaptation Action Plan was developed during the workshops and contains a number of actions to address risks, reasons for selecting the actions, level of priority (high, medium and low), and timeline for implementation. It also indicates who would be responsible for the action and identifies other Stakeholders involved in the process.

Following the workshops, further work was undertaken to refine and screen the actions. The screening process involved qualitative consideration of the issues identified in Table 3 below and linking similar risks which would have the same adaptation actions.

n Table 3 Climate Change Adaptation Screening Criteria

Criterion Description

Effectiveness Ability of the action to reduce vulnerability and risk either directly or indirectly.

Immediacy Ability of the action to provide immediate risk mitigation or benefit.

Financial viability Ability of the action to be implemented within existing budget allocations, revenue expansion schemes (i.e. rates or levies) or cost sharing with other levels of government or public/private partnerships (i.e. grants).

Political feasibility Action is within the scope of Councils’ responsibility or sphere of influence and is considered an acceptable course of action by Councillors and Council Officers.

Community acceptance Action would be acceptable to the community and does not unduly infringe upon the rights of residents and businesses.

Flexibility Action is able to respond to new information about climate change, and can be modified over time.

Concurrent effects Action avoids negative environmental, social or other unintended consequences and offer benefits beyond mitigating climate change related risk where possible.

Source: Adapted from Climate Change in the Western Port Region: Risks and Adaptation

5.2. Adaptation Actions

Climate Change actions for Wollongong City Council are shown in Table 4 to Table 8. This provides an ‘at a glance’ adaptation plan with associated priorities for implementation. Supplementary detail on each action is provided in Appendix A including details of Lead Agency, key stakeholders and timeframes (where short is 1-2 years, medium is 2-5 years and long is 5-10 years).


5.3. Key adaptation actions

Key adaptation actions provided in the plan include the following:

1) Further investigations to refine climate change projections;

2) Planning (corporate, land use, emergency management, catchment, parks, infrastructure, natural resources, pest management, risk management, economic development);

3) Advocacy to State Government agencies and peak industry bodies for increased research, funding and collaboration;

4) Education and information programs for the local community (often complementing existing initiatives, for example ‘Sustainable Illawarra’);

5) Reviewing Design Standards (infrastructure, water supply, waste facilities, buildings);

6) Reviewing Finance arrangements (investment, budgets, procurement, subsidies, grants, rebates and levies);

7) Regulatory/policy change;

8) Modifying Council and Southern Council Groups operations and service delivery;

9) Building community capacity;

10) Building organisational capacity.


Identified Risk Adaptation Tool Adaptation Action Priority

Plan n Review and update the current building design standards. n Include provision for climate change impacts in DCP and LEP.

H Increased Risk of Blackouts

Engage & Facilitate n Investigate options for alternative energy supply. n Coordinate with Integral Energy to find out current procedures for managing blackouts.

M

Damage to existing and

future development and

infrastructure from flooding

Plan n Prepare remaining flood risk mapping for the LGA to inform which areas are at risk from flooding.

n Include climate change allowance in all technical studies. n Review maintenance programs. n Review and update LEP/DCP following advice from technical studies.

H

Inform n Update existing flood information available to the local community via the Council website.

H

Sea level rise impacting

coastal areas

Engage & Facilitate n Coordinate with DECC to gain agreement on sea level rise parameters to adopt. H

Advocate n Advocate to State and Australian Government to legislate sea level rise policy for inclusion in Council planning documents.

H

Plan n Plan for the undertaking of Coastal Hazard Assessment Studies. M

Increased costs of

construction

Finance n Seek financial assistance from State and Australian Government to support capital works. L

Climate impacts on housing

and building design (existing

and future)

Advocate n Advocate to Australian Building Codes Board for higher standards for design of housing and buildings.

M

n Table 4 Adaptation Actions – Planning and Development


Reduced water supply

leading to changes in

agricultural productivity and

costs

Plan n Advocate to the NSW Department of Primary Industries to review land use capability and increase resources going to agricultural productivity.

M


Advocate n Advocate to local emergency services (RFS, SES, Ambulance services) to increase resources to have adequate capacity for extreme events.

H Increased pressure on

emergency services

(resources and facilities) Finance n In collaboration with SES, secure funding for more investment in equipment (boats, Council trucks etc.).

H

Loss of recreational assets

(i.e. tidal pools, beaches)

Finance n Secure investment to protect tidal pools by building sea walls. L

Plan n Review/update disaster management plans to make allowance for climate change impacts.

M Increased isolation of

communities due to extreme

events Design and Operate n Review/update designs for public transport facilities to include climate change impacts. n Future designs of bus shelters (for example) should make adequate shade provision if

people have to wait for extended periods of times.

H

Reduced tourist revenue

(loss of beaches, eroding

escarpment etc.)

Plan n Develop a regional tourism development strategy which seeks to capitalise on beneficial opportunities while considering diversification of the economic base.

M

Increased cost to support

community services (i.e.

Advocate n Advocate to the NSW Department of Community Services to review and increase capacity of community services.

H

n Table 6 Adaptation Actions - Corporate and Community Services



Increased risk of heat stress Advocate n Advocate the NSW Department of Health prepare a Public Health Plan which includes an extreme heat strategy.

H

Plan n Prepare/review open space strategy plans to include provision of shade in communal areas such as playgrounds, pools, parks etc. and availability of drinking water fountains.

H

Inform n Inform residents on implications of a NSW Department of Health extreme heat strategy.

M

Increasing cost of

utilities/rate increases for

local community

Finance n Review Council Management Plan and make provision for increasing cost in operations to address climate change risks

H

Plan n Plan for improvements in Council water and energy efficiency to reduce exposure to increased costs of resources.

H

Reduced use of recreational

facilities due to water

logging or excessive drying

Plan n Review/update risk assessments for Council owned sports fields. n Conduct feasibility studies of water re-use for sports field irrigation.

M

Increased risk of shark

attacks with changing sea

temperatures

Inform n Raise awareness of increased shark presence through public display boards on beaches and in surf clubs.

L

Plan n Review lifeguard seasons based on community demand.

n Table 6 Adaptation Actions - Corporate and Community Services



Plan n Review/update current Asset Protection Zones (APZ) plans and maps. n Improve bush fire research and risk management for predicted climate change scenarios. n Review/update LEP and DCP to include areas at risk of bush fire.

H

Finance n Secure funding to support the APZ management program. M

Engage n Increase level of education around bush fire risk to homes and businesses. H

Increased bush fire risk to

parks and reserves

Advocate n Advocate to RFS to review the ‘Planning for Bushfire Protection Guide’ at least every two years to account for predicted climate change scenarios.

L

Finance n Build internal capacity to resource increased weed maintenance programs. M

Engage n Coordinate with Southern Rivers CMA, RFS and private landholders to increase capacity to control weeds.

M

Increased weed infestation

of parks, reserves and native

bushland

Advocate Advocate to NSW Government Department of Primary Industries for:

n Ongoing funding and support for the delivery of NSW Invasive Species Plan.

n Development of best practice guidelines for roadside weed control programs.

n Funding for weed management on Council land

M

n Table 7 Adaptation Actions - Environment



Loss of sub tidal/tidal

habitats due to climate

change and subsequent loss

of biodiversity

Plan n Develop a monitoring program to assess the impact of sea level rise on coastal habitats.

n Update/Review estuary management plans.

n Make planning provisions in LEP/DCP which preserve biodiversity of the area by providing

species migration corridors.

n Develop a Regional Biodiversity Strategy to address future climate change.

M

Plan n Develop and implement dune restoration monitoring programs. M

Advocate n Advocate DECC provide policy guidance on implementing the coastline management manual.

M

Coastal erosion of beaches

and dune system

Increased erosion of

wetlands and rivers due to

higher flows

Engage n Engage with Southern Rivers CMA to develop management strategies to address the impacts of climate change.

H

Plan n Prepare/review Council storm water management plans to ensure adequate provision to reduce impact of sediment entering waterways.

n Increase resource provision for maintenance programs.

M

Regulate n Review design standards for water quality controls for the stormwater network M

Reduction in water quality

due to sedimentation and

high flows carrying litter

Inform n In partnership with Southern Rivers CMA and Landcare, develop an education program for land owners regarding waterway health

M



Plan n Identify opportunities to extend or modify existing landfill sites. L Increased rainfall intensities

increases contamination

from landfill sites Design and Operate n Review current design standards for waste sites and consider alternative methods of waste storage to minimise contamination.

L

Increased risk of Sewage

Treatment Plant Failure

Plan n Review/prepare monitoring and maintenance programs for sewage treatment network n Review/update emergency response plans.

M

Exceedence of capacity of

stormwater systems

(including embankment

failure) due to higher

intensity rain events

Plan n Prepare technical studies which model the impacts of increased rainfall intensity on the stormwater network.

n Prepare and review asset management plan/s for the stormwater network and stormwater management plan/s every five years. Plans should consider the projected long term impacts of climate change.

H

Finance n Seek additional funding for preparation and implementation of asset management plans for capital and recurrent expenditure for the stormwater network.

M

Design and Operate n Include provision for climate change impacts in future stormwater asset design. L

Increased risk of rail service

malfunctions in warmer

temperatures

Plan n Coordinate with State Rail/City Rail to update emergency management plans. M

Plan n Participate in a long term water strategy which responds to a climate change future.

Medium Threatened water supply

Inform n Educate community on water efficient practices to conserve water at home to promote self sufficiency

High

n Table 8 Adaptation Actions - Infrastructure



Advocate n Advocate to the Department of Water and Energy to provide grants to assist with community/household water saving projects.

High

Increased damage to major

and minor roads due to bush

fire and flooding

Plan n Plan for increased maintenance in existing operations.

High

n Table 8 Adaptation Actions - Infrastructure


6. Implementation of the Strategy and Plan 6.1. Implementation

Implementation of the CCASAP will require a coordinated effort by Councils’, SCG and other authorities and internal coordination within each agency. There are a few recommendations which Council may consider to facilitate this process:

n Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Launch – host an event to launch the strategy, inviting Council General Managers, representatives from State and Australian Government bodies;

n Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Open Day – host an open day to raise awareness of the project and gain support from the local community;

n Website Update – dedicate a page of the Council website to climate change adaptation issues and actions;

n Illawarra Climate Change Forum – provide a web based portal of information for sharing knowledge between Councils.

While this is a long term strategy, its emphasis is on actions which are achievable within the next ten years. Achieving these actions is likely to require advocating for the inclusion of short term, high priority actions in State Government budgets and Council's Management Plans and Operation Plans to ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to achieve these actions.

6.2. Monitoring Strategy

The CCASAP must be monitored on a regular basis to ensure priority actions are being implemented and that they continue to adequately respond to identified risks.

Annual monitoring is intended to include:

n Reporting on implementation of actions;

n Consideration of any barriers and challenges to implementing the CCASAP;

n Consideration of any new information regarding climate change risks;

n Revising any priorities to implementing the CCASAP;

n Identifying opportunities to revise the CCASAP or bring implementation back on schedule.

Monitoring should be reported in Wollongong City Council’s Annual Report.

6.3. Review of Strategy

It is anticipated that this Strategy will be reviewed every five years, or earlier as required by Council. SCG, in collaboration with Wollongong Council will review progress to implement the


Strategy, and will determine whether major changes in direction are required to take account of new information, new risks or other changing circumstances.

The first review of the Strategy is anticipated to commence in 2014 and will be aligned with revision of Council’s Management Plan.

6.4. Next Steps – Communication and Consultation

The outcomes of the project and this report will be submitted to the Executive Management Committee (EMC) at Council. The EMC will be recommended to endorse an internal consultation process during their review. This will include integration of actions into the Wollongong Management Plan and relevant divisional business plans. Although the plan will remain the responsibility of the Environment Strategy and Planning Division, inputs will be sought from relevant divisions to update risks and develop actions on an annual basis. This process will enable the report to be a “living document” which is reviewed and updated accordingly.



7. References Australian Greenhouse Office (2006). Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government.

Council of Australian Governments (2007). National Climate Change Adaptation Framework.

Department of Climate Change (2009). Climate Change Adaptation Actions for Local Government.

Department of Climate Change (2009). Corporate Plan 2009-10.

Department of Local Government (2009). Planning and Reporting Guidelines for local government in NSW(Draft for Public Comment).

England, P (2007). Climate Change – What Are Local Governments Liable For ? Urban Research Program, Issues Paper 6, Griffith University

ICLEI (2008). Cities for Climate Protection Australia Adaptation Initiative, Local Government Adaptation Toolkit.

Local Government Association of Queensland Incorporated (2007). Adapting to Climate Change - A Queensland Local Government Guide

Marsden Jacob Associates et al (2008). Impacts of Climate Change on Settlements in the Western Port Region, Climate Change Risks and Adaptation

Climate Institute, (2006). Climate of the Nation Australians Attitudes to Climate Change and Its Solutions

Sinclair Knight Merz (2009). Assessment of Climate Change Risks to New England Strategic Alliance of Councils.

Southern Councils Group (2005). Strategic Plan 2006-2009



Appendix A Detailed Adaptation Action Plans


A.1 Planning and Development Identified Risk 2050

Risk Rank

2070 Risk Rank

Adaptation Tool

Adaptation Action Reason For Action Priority Timeframe Lead Agency Other Stakeholders

Extreme Extreme Plan n Review and update the current building design standards

n Include provision for climate change impacts in DCP and LEP

n An increase in extreme weather events could lead to an increased risk of blackouts. WCC should focus on reviewing current building design standards and consider ways to increase energy efficiency thus reducing reliance on suppliers. Guidelines could be updated to encourage increased use of solar energy (through installation of solar panels for example) to decrease the demand on power.

n Council could build energy efficient practices into the DCP, to be assessed when building applications are received the DCP is being revised. The DCP for Council is currently being reviewed so it is important to build in these revisions asap.

High Short WCC-ES+P Integral Energy

Increased Risk of Blackouts

Engage & Facilitate

n Investigate options for alternative energy supply to essential Council and community services such as hospitals/water and sewerage infrastructure and emergency services.

n Coordinate with Integral Energy to find out current procedures for managing blackouts.

n Reduced availability of power supply including increased occurrences of black outs may result from increased storms and bushfires. Provision of alternative energy generation including backup power supply is costly and not typically provided for all uses. Hospitals, water and sewerage infrastructure and aged care facilities have been identified as essential infrastructure which requires an ongoing power supply.

Medium Medium WCC-ES+P

WCC - Infrastructure

Integral Energy

Damage to existing and future development and infrastructure from flooding

Extreme Extreme Plan n Prepare remaining flood risk mapping for the LGA to inform which areas are at risk from flooding.

n Include climate change allowance in all technical studies

n Include guidance provided by DECC in the draft sea level rise policy statement

n Review maintenance programs n Review and update LEP/DCP

following advice from technical studies.

WCC have completed 5 out of 13 flood studies for the LGA. Following guidance published by DECC, studies should include an allowance for climate change in the flood risk mapping. Council may further consider refining Intensity Rainfall Duration curves to be used in future studies for climate change. Increased flood damage to infrastructure may require more careful monitoring of the conditions of infrastructure assets. Councils have an existing asset management plan which may need to be reviewed and updated to consider climate change impacts. When the DCP and/or LEP are next scheduled for review, consideration should be given for future projections of climate change and impacts on existing and future flood risk areas. Any flood policies adopted by Council should be consistent with the guidelines contained in the NSW Floodplain Development Manual.

High Long WCC-ES+P


DECC

Inform n Update existing flood information available to the Local Community via the Council website

WCC have commissioned a number of flood studies in the LGA which provide flood risk mapping outputs. These flood maps could be presented on the Council website as an interactive tool whereby the user can input their post code and identify if they are located in a flood risk area. Existing information contained on flood related pages could be updated to inform residents of the increased risk of flooding due to climate change.

High Medium WCC-ES+P


SES

Increased costs of construction

Extreme Extreme Finance n Seek financial assistance from State and Australian Government to support capital works

Existing infrastructure and developments may need further protection due to the expected climate change scenarios. To increase standard of protection of flood defence works, sea walls, detention basin capacity etc., Council will need to seek additional financial assistance.

Low Long WCC - Infrastructure

Australian and State Government


Identified Risk 2050 Risk Rank

2070 Risk Rank

Adaptation Tool


Climate impacts on housing and building design (existing and future)

Extreme Extreme Advocate n Advocate to Australian Building Codes Board for higher standards for designs to address

− Extreme heat conditions − Increased storm intensities − Flood proofing

The Building Code of Australia (BCA) contains performance requirements and also the building solutions (prescribed building standards) which apply to building construction in high wind areas. The BCA contains State and Territory variations to address the various climatic conditions found throughout Australia. These building standards enable construction to respond to impacts associated with climate change and are continually updated and modified to reflect changing environmental conditions, community expectation and changes in building technology. A Council of Australian Government (COAG) report on protection from natural disasters made recommendations that priority be given to reviewing the BCA and standards in respect of mitigating the effects of natural hazards. This work is ongoing, in conjunction with several other organisations including Emergency Management Australia and Standards Australia.

Medium Medium WCC-ES+P State Government

Sea level rise impacting coastal areas

High Extreme Engage and Facilitate

n Coordinate with DECC to understand sea level rise guidance which should be used

The completion of DECC’s work on climate change projections for the Illawarra for 2100 is due to be completed in 2009 and information rolled out by a number of workshops. Councils should ensure they are aware of the most up to date information and how this will impact on their planning and development.

High Short WCC-ES+P DECC

Advocate n Advocate to State and Australian Government to get draft sea level rise policy legislated for inclusion in Council planning documents in addition to providing technical support and data to assist with hazard assessment.

Draft Sea Level Rise Policy (February 2009) indicates that sea level rise could be up to 40cm by 2050 and 90cm by 2100 compared to 1990 levels. Local Councils need guidance from the State Government and Australian Government in order to determine which levels they should be planning for. There is currently insufficient direction for Local Councils to understand their position on liability if there is existing planned development in these areas.

High Medium WCC - ES+P State (DECC) and Australian Government

Plan n Undertake a Coastal Hazard Assessment Study

n Prepare a Coastal Zone Management Plan and plan for its implementation

WCC needs further assessment to guide future development along the coastline. For example, there are 17 surf clubs along the LGA coastline, many of which may be susceptible to sea level rise. The Council need a better understanding on the vulnerability of coastal assets and appropriate management measures for relocating or adapting current facilities.

Medium Medium WCC - ES+P DECC

Reduced water supply leading to changes in agricultural productivity and costs

High Extreme Plan Advocate to the NSW Department of Primary Industries to: − Review land use capability

mapping. − Allocate increased resources to

developing and implementing a community education program to raise awareness about improving efficiency of water use and utilising sustainable farming practices.

Accurate, up to date land use capability mapping is required to identify the productive potential of agricultural land and to identify areas which should remain in agricultural production rather than be used for urban development. Increased resources are required to raise community awareness about improving efficiency of water use and utilising sustainable farming practices including holistic management of rural properties, developing and implementing farm management plans using sustainable farming practices.

Medium Medium WCC - ES+P DPI


A.2 Environment Identified Risk 2050

Risk Rank

2070 Risk Rank

Adaptation Tool


Increased bush fire risk to parks and reserves

Extreme Extreme Plan n Review/update current Asset Protection Zones (APZ) plans and maps

n Improve bush fire research and risk management for predicted climate change scenarios

n Review/update LEP and DCP to include areas at risk of bush fire

Council have an existing APZ management program which includes the identification of APZs within the LGA. The mapping and plans should be reviewed and updated in light of newly available climate change predictions for temperature increases. Seek assistance from research bodies to deepen understanding of predicted climate change on existing bush fire risk. Coordinate with the RFS to understand what impacts this will have on the existing APZ program.

High Short WCC-ES+P


RFS

Finance n Secure funding to support the APZ management program

The implementation of the program is currently limited due to availability of funding and resources to carry out the work. Council should seek opportunities to secure additional funding from Government bodies and re-allocate Council resources to prioritise this work.

Medium Medium WCC-ES+P RFS

Engage n Increase level of education around bush fire risk to homes and businesses

WCC have a ‘FIREADY’ program which provides support, training, safety equipment and other resources for community members to carry out ongoing bushfire fuel management works within the APZ. The program has a number of groups which meet monthly to co-ordinate activities. This community forum can be used to update members on the increasing risk of bush fire from the predicted climate change variables.

High Short WCC-ES+P RFS, Local Community

Advocate n Advocate to RFS to review the ‘Planning for Bushfire Protection Guide’ at least every two years to account for predicted climate change scenarios

The NSW Rural Fire Service is the statutory body which provides information to Council on identifying bush prone land which is used in planning policies. Planning for Bushfire Protection, A Guide for Councils’, Planners, Fire Authorities and Developers, NSW Rural Fire Services 2006, contains guidelines for suitable defendable space, access considerations, vegetation management, on site emergency management arrangements, water supply provisions, site assessment for building construction requirements and planning framework for developments in rural and urban areas close to land likely to be affected by bush fire. These Guidelines are intended to be reviewed and updated as new research becomes available or at least every two years.

Low Long WCC-ES+P RFS

Increased weed infestation of parks, reserves and native bushland

Extreme Extreme Finance n Build internal capacity to resource increased weed maintenance programs

Council employs environment officers who are responsible for weed control. The capacity of this group may need reviewing to meet the demands of increased weed maintenance in a climate changed future.


WCC- City Works

Engage n Coordinate with CMAs, RFS and private landholders to increase capacity to control weeds

Engage stakeholders who have roles in weed control to develop best practice guidelines for the local area. Coordination with the RFS will allow possible integration between weed control and bush fire management practices.

Medium Medium WCC-ES+P Southern Rivers CMA, Private Landowners, Landcare.


Advocate Advocate to NSW Government Department of Primary Industries for: n Ongoing funding and support for

the delivery of NSW Invasive Species Plan.

n Development of best practice guidelines for roadside weed control programs.

n Funding for weed management on Council land

The NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) has prepared the NSW Invasive Species Plan and the Weeds Strategy to manage priority weeds and pests in key locations in NSW. DPI are able to allocate grants for noxious weeds control and inspection programs on roadsides and on council lands to local councils’ and other weed control authorities to help tackle weed issues. Weed Officers provide assistance regarding; weed identification and advice; weed management programs; educational material and weed identification and local area knowledge.

Medium Medium WCC-ES+P DPI

Loss of sub tidal/tidal habitats due to climate change and subsequent loss of biodiversity

Extreme Extreme Plan n Develop a monitoring program to assess the impact of sea level rise on coastal habitats

n Update/Review estuary management plans

n Make planning provisions in LEP/DCP which preserve biodiversity of the area by providing species migration corridors

n Develop a Regional Biodiversity Strategy to address future climate change

Council require a more detailed assessment of ecosystems and habitats which will be most vulnerable to climate change. Mapping the vulnerable habitats will allow planning provisions to be incorporated in to the LEP/DCP. Future impacts of climate change on habitats must be considered in the preparation of estuary management plans. WCC have recently received a three year grant from the NSW Environmental Trust’s Urban Sustainability Program to fund the Illawarra Biodiversity and Local Food Strategy for Climate Change project. This will look at the impact of climate change on ecosystems and enable the Council to develop a Regional Biodiversity Strategy to restore and rehabilitate natural areas.

Medium Long WCC-ES+P SRCMA

Coastal erosion of beaches and dune system

Extreme Extreme Plan n Develop and implement dune restoration monitoring programs

The impact of climate change will increase coastal and inland erosion by rising sea levels, increased rainfall intensities and increases in flow magnitudes and subsequent velocities. Flood studies will help inform the risk of erosion in inland watercourses but a monitoring program should be developed to more adequately inform Council of the risks to coastal assets from climate change. Monitoring the changes in the natural system will allow management measures to be planned.

Medium Long WCC-ES+P

WCC- City Works

SRCMA

Increased erosion of wetlands and rivers due to higher flows

Advocate n Advocate DECC provide policy guidance on implementing the coastline management manual.

NSW Coastline Hazard Policy introduces a range of planning and structural measures which provide for

− the establishment of a state wide management system which requires balanced management of the coastline;

− the control the potential for losses in new development through the application of effective planning controls designed to ensure that the development is compatible with the hazards;

− a reduction in the impact of hazards on existing developed areas through the construction of protective works and/or the voluntary purchase of property at equitable prices; and

− the construction of beach improvement works to protect or enhance the recreational amenity of the State's most heavily used beaches and their associated sand dune systems.

The policy needs to be reviewed and updated to enable a consistent approach to adapting to future climate change projections for Councils.

Medium Long WCC-ES+P


DECC


Engage n Engage with Southern Rivers CMA to develop management strategies to address the impacts of climate change

Council have representatives on the Coastal and Marine Working Group which provides advice to the SRCMA in facilitating the Coastal and Marine Program. This forum can be used to plan for adequate management of the wetlands, rivers and coastal zones due to the impacts of climate change.

High Short WCC-ESP SRCMA

Reduction in water quality due to sedimentation and high flows carrying litter

Extreme Extreme Plan n Prepare/review Council storm water management plans to ensure adequate provision to reduce impact of sediment entering waterways

n Increase resource provision for maintenance programs

Council could seek to adapt WSUD principles to include impacts of climate change.

Medium

Medium WCC-ES+P


Regulate n Review design standards for water quality controls for the stormwater network

Current Water quality controls may retrofitting to enable filtration of larger contaminants and more frequent use.



Inform n In partnership with Southern Rivers CMA and Landcare, develop an education program for land owners regarding waterway health

Councils could launch a ‘Clean Up’ day which focuses on improving the health of waterways and alerts the community to the impacts of littering and pollution

Medium Medium WCC-ES+P SRCMA, Landcare


A.3 Community and Corporate Services Identified Risk 2050

Risk Rank

2070 Risk Rank

Adaptation Tool


Increased pressure on emergency services (resources and facilities)

Extreme Extreme Advocate n Advocate to local emergency services (RFS, SES, Ambulance services) to increase resources to have adequate capacity for extreme events

An increased risk of bushfire and flooding will increase demand on emergency services. Organisation such as the SES, RFS etc. must consider securing additional resources to meet this demand. This may require updating their recruitment strategies or enhanced collaboration with neighbouring operation centres.

High Short WCC-CC+LS SES, RFS, Police Ambulance, LEMC

Finance n In collaboration with SES, secure funding for more investment in equipment (boats, Council trucks etc.)

An increase in extreme events will enhance the need for emergency vehicles to mobilise volunteers. More frequent use of these vehicles will require additional servicing and maintenance costs. Securing finances to purchase boats and trucks will allow Council and the SES to respond effectively. This equipment may also be shared with neighbouring Councils to increase operation efficiency.

High Long SCG

WCC-Works

SES

Loss of recreational assets (i.e. tidal pools, beaches)

Extreme Extreme Finance n Secure investment to protect tidal pools by building sea walls

WCC have a number of tidal pools and recreational asses which may be at risk from sea level rise. Following guidance issued by DECC, Council should consider protecting tidal pools by raising the height of the sea walls.

Low Long WCC-Infrastructure

WCC – Property + Recreation

DECC

Increased isolation of communities due to extreme events

Extreme Extreme Plan n Review/update disaster management plans to make allowance for climate change impacts

The Disaster Management Plan (DISPLAN) and associated sub plans document the existing arrangements for all agencies involved in managing an emergency. These plans must seek to make provision for the increased likelihood of extreme events (bush fires, floods, storm surge) due to climate change. The plans should address the risk of increased isolation of communities in extreme conditions and the possibility that residents may have to remain in their homes for sustained periods of time due to disruption of services, limited access to services etc.

Medium Long WCC- City Works LEMC and associated agencies

Design and Operate

n Review/update designs for public transport facilities to include climate change impacts

n Future designs of bus shelters (for example) should make adequate shade provision if people have to wait for extended periods of times

Review the provision of shade and rain cover at bus stops and train stations. Future designs should include covered bus stops for protection of community from extreme heat and intense rainfall events. Climate change risks should be included in any future plans for structural upgrades of these facilities.

High Long WCC-Infrastructure CityRail, RTA, STA

Reduced tourist revenue (loss of beaches, eroding escarpment etc.)

High Extreme Plan n Develop a regional tourism development strategy which seeks to capitalise on beneficial opportunities while considering diversification of the economic base.

The Illawarra region relies heavily on tourist revenue. Climate change impacts (such as warmer temperatures) may increase the number of visitors to the area. However, increased rainfall intensities and sea level rise may put these tourist attractions at risk. Council need to consider a long term plan to adapt to the changing tourism trends which may be observed with climate change. A long term economic strategy will assist Council to ensure the region’s economy would be sustained in a climate change future.

Medium Long WCC – Organisational Strategy + Improvement

Department of Planning


Increased cost to support community services (i.e. health services)

High High Advocate n Advocate to the NSW Department of Community Services to review and increase capacity of community services

Climate change impacts including extreme heat, flooding and bush fires can increase the level of stress and ill health amongst the local community. Councils must seek to build organisational capacity to be able to respond to a rising demand in mental health and counselling services due to the impacts of climate change.

High Medium WCC-CC+LS NSW Department of Community Services

Increased risk of heat stress

Extreme Extreme Advocate n Advocate the NSW Department of Health prepare a Public Health Plan which includes an extreme heat strategy.

Advocate for the NSW Government to produce a Public Health Plan which provides guidance on actions to take to minimise risk during extreme heat events. Council would participate in the preparation of this plan. The strategy would address the risk of heat stress at public events which are held within the LGA. This would include issues such as the potential need for increased provision of shade, drinking water and volunteer medical staff (e.g. St Johns Ambulance).

High Short WCC-CC+LS SESIAHS, NSW Department of Health

Plan n Prepare/review open space strategy plans to include provision of shade in communal areas such as playgrounds, pools, parks etc. and availability of drinking water fountains

Council should include climate change risks in their long term master planning initiatives (e.g. Illawarra Strategy) to ensure adequate provision is made in public areas for shade and available drinking water supplies.

High Medium WCC-Property + Recreation

Inform n Inform residents on implications of a NSW Department of Health extreme heat strategy.

Council has the capacity to prepare a community information leaflet which provides guidance to residents of dealing with extreme heat. This could include recommendations on drinking water quantities, preparing homes for extreme heat, times of the day to stay inside etc. This advice could be included in Council mail outs (for example rate notices) to ensure the information is received. The information could be disseminated at timely intervals (i.e. mid Spring) and reinforced for vulnerable groups by follow up communications (i.e. community health visitors, phone calls, posters in communal areas).

Medium Long WCC-CC+LS SESIAHS, NSW Department of Health

Increasing cost of utilities/rate increases for local community

High High Finance n Review Council Management Plan and make provision for increasing cost in operations to address climate change risks

Council will need to allocate budget to respond to climate change risks and fund adaptation strategies. This will have an impact on the current budget allocations across Council divisions. Council may need to consider seeking financial assistance from State and Australian Governments to minimise the impacts on rate increases for the local community.

High Short WCC- Organisational Strategy + Improvement

Plan n Plan for improvements in Council water and energy efficiency to reduce exposure to increased costs of resources

Continue current Water and Energy Savings Action Plans. Consider expanding the current Water and Energy Savings Action Plans to cover a greater number of Council assets. Review new infrastructure for water and energy efficiency

High Short WCC – ES+P


Reduced use of recreational facilities due to increased climatic variability

High High Plan n Review/update risk assessments for Council owned sports fields

n Conduct feasibility studies of

water re-use for sportsfield irrigation

Council already have risk assessments in place to determine if a facility is adequate for use. Climate impacts such as increased water logging of pitches or excessive drying of fields may require an update to the existing risk assessment. Council may consider rotating the use of the sports grounds to reduce the risk of compaction of turf and/or review the watering and drainage strategies currently applied.

Council has constructed water re-use infrastructure at several locations including Reed Park and JJ Kelly Park. Further water re-use may be appropriate to adapt to climate change and should be assessed at the level of a feasibility study.

Medium Medium WCC- Property + Recreation

WCC – ES+P

Sports Clubs

Increased use of beaches due to increasing sea temperatures

High High Inform n Raise awareness of increased shark presence through public display boards on beaches and in surf clubs

Changes in climatic conditions, particularly warming of sea temperatures may change the location and distribution of shark populations along the Illawarra coastline. Council should prepare community education posters which can be displayed to provide information on potential shark feeding and breeding areas, times of the day to avoid entering the water (dawn and dusk) and how to respond in the event of a shark attack.

Low Long WCC- Property + Recreation

SLSC

Plan n Review lifeguard seasons based on community demand.

Council currently conducts a bi-annual community survey targeting beach users. Future surveys could gather information on the time of year people are swimming at beaches.

Medium Medium WCC- Property + Recreation

SLSC


A.4 Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services Identified Risk 2050

Risk Rank

2070 Risk Rank

Adaptation Tool


Increased rainfall intensities increases contamination from landfill sites

Extreme Extreme Plan n Identify opportunities to extend or modify existing landfill sites

There are two existing landfill sites in the Wollongong LGA located at Whytes Gully and Helensburgh. Increased rainfall intensity could cause flushing of harmful contaminants into the water supply system. Council should consider reducing this risk by planning: Containment of harmful contaminants on site. Bunding around the site to prevent harmful runoff from the area.

Low Long WCC-City Works

DECC

Design and Operate

n Review current design standards for waste sites and consider alternative methods of waste storage to minimise contamination

Review design standards for the operation of sites so they take account on climate change impacts such as increased temperatures and increased rainfall intensity. Seek guidance from DECC on how to best modify existing practices to reduce the risk of increased contamination.

Low Long WCC-City Works

DECC

Increased risk of Sewage Treatment Plant Failure

Extreme Extreme Plan n Review/update emergency response plans

Coordinate with Sydney Water and DECC to review and update emergency response plans which adequately address the increased risk of extreme events due to climate change impacts.

High Medium WCC-City Works

Sydney Water, DECC

Exceedence of capacity of stormwater systems (including embankment failure) due to higher intensity rain events

Extreme Extreme Plan n Prepare technical studies which model the impacts of increased rainfall intensity on the stormwater network.

n Prepare and review asset management plan/s for the stormwater network and stormwater management plan/s every five years. Plans should consider the projected long term impacts of climate change and include:

− Proposed monitoring of pipe

condition. − Staged extensions to the pipe

stormwater network, duplication of stormwater system and targeting high risk areas.

− Proposed maintenance and replacement of the network including replacing pipes with pipes made of more resilient materials (appropriate to area) and improved construction techniques with improved bedding and backfill materials.

− Options for increased stormwater harvesting for use as recycled water.

Council needs to identify which stormwater assets are most at risk due to climate change impacts. A technical study could provide updated rainfall intensities and use these to model the impacts on the network. Some information prepared as part of the flood studies and floodplain risk management plan may assist with this identification process. Results would indicate vulnerability of assets and prioritise where action is required as part of the asset management plan. Asset management plans are typically prepared to outline the existing condition of infrastructure assets including water pipes and stormwater drains and recommend maintenance and asset renewal. These plans could be prepared and reviewed to take into account the impacts of climate change and to consider construction techniques or materials in response to climate change impacts.

High Long WCC-Infrastructure

WCC - ES+P

Sydney Water, DECC


Finance n Seek additional funding for preparation and implementation of asset management plans for capital and recurrent expenditure for the stormwater network through:

− Council’s Management Plan. − Advocacy to the NSW Government for

increased funding for asset management, monitoring, maintenance and replacement and new stormwater drainage works.

Funding for capital and operational expenditure for water supply infrastructure is sourced through a Stormwater Levy. The Management Plan outlines the staging of capital expenditure required to upgrade infrastructure. Opportunities may exist for increasing the resilience of assets to climate change risks as part of ongoing maintenance. Additional funding may be required to respond to climate change impacts from the NSW Government.

Medium Medium WCC-Infrastructure

WCC - ES+P

DWE

Sydney Water

DECC

Design and Operate

n Include provision for climate change impacts in future stormwater asset design and upgrades to existing stormwater assets

Stormwater assets typically have a design life of more than 50 years. Future designs need to not only consider climate change but be designed in such a way that can be adapted to future rainfall predictions.

Low Long WCC-Infrastructure

Increased risk of rail service malfunctions in warmer temperatures

Extreme Extreme Plan n Participate with State Rail/City Rail to update emergency management plans

The railway line connecting the Illawarra Region to Sydney is used heavily by commuters during the week. Higher temperatures can cause buckling of the railway lines (as observed during the Victoria/South Australia heat waves in January 2009). Council needs to participate in rail authority planning to minimise impacts on the community.

Medium Medium WCC - City Works

CityRail, StateRail, State Transit Authority, NSW Ministry of Transport

Threatened potable water supply

High High Plan n Participate in a long term water strategy which responds to a climate change future which includes:

− Identification of the need for additional/alternative water supply and storages

− Identifies the appropriateness of the water supply network to respond to projected climate change

− Considers long term projections of drinking water demand

Climate change projections currently indicate there are threats to the long term water supply security of the Illawarra Region. Council should coordinate with Sydney Water to understand how the availability of water may be affected and what strategies may be put in place to manage the change in the supply demand balance. Under the Metropolitan Water Plan prepared by Sydney Water, there are key actions associated with assessing potential climate change impacts on water supply. Sydney Water is currently working with other agencies, led by the Department of Water and Energy to model and assess these impacts.

Medium Long SCG DWE, Sydney Water

Design and Operate

n Construct water re-use infrastructure to reduce demand on potable water supply

Council has implemented several actions arising from its Water Savings Action Plans including Reed Park water capture and re-use, JJ Kelly Park recycled water irrigation and use of treated rain water for street sweepers. Further opportunities exist for the design and operation of infrastructure to reduce demand on potable water supply.

Medium Long WCC - ES+P


DWE

Sydney Water


Inform Educate community on water efficient practices to conserve water at home to promote self sufficiency

The Every Drop Counts (EDC) program developed strong relationships between Sydney Water, Local Councils, Schools, Government and commercial facilities. Council has reached level 4 of the community and corporate components of the ICLEI Water Campaign. The messages of these programs could be re-enforced by Council to educate stakeholders on using water efficiently to help adapt to the projected climate change scenarios.

High Short WCC - ES+P Sydney Water

Advocate n Advocate to the Department of Water and Energy to provide grants to assist with community/household water saving projects

Climate change projections point to threats to water supply to the Illawarra Region. Council needs to take a proactive approach and encourage the local community to foster water conservation methods in their own homes. Residents could be provided with financial assistance to install the following water saving devices (for example); Rainwater harvesting tanks Flow Regulators Water efficient shower heads

High Medium SCG Sydney Water

Increased damage to major and minor roads due to extreme weather events

High High Plan n Plan for increased maintenance of major and minor roads

Council should make provision for increased resources and costs to maintain major and minor roads. The maintenance program should complement other planning policies such as Disaster Management Plan and be part of a long term Management Strategy.

High Short WCC-Infrastructure

WCC - Works

RTA


Appendix B Risk Assessment Report

Final WOLLONGONG CITY COUNCIL Climate Change Risk Assessment

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS TO WOLLONGONG CITY COUNCIL

n FINAL n July 2009

This report has been partly funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change under its Local Adaptation Pathways Program. It was prepared by Sinclair Knight Merz on behalf of Wollongong City Council who owns the copyright for this document.


Final WOLLONGONG CITY COUNCIL Climate Change Risk Assessment

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS TO WOLLONGONG CITY COUNCIL

n Final n July 2009

Sinclair Knight Merz ABN 37 001 024 095 100 Christie Street PO Box 164 St Leonards NSW Australia 1590 Tel: +61 2 9928 2100 Fax: +61 2 9928 2500 Web: www.skmconsulting.com

http://www.skmconsulting.com

Assessment of Climate Change Risks to WOLLONGONG CITY COUNCIL


W:\Environment\env00001-env00500\env00254\Project\Reports\Adaptation Strategy and Plan _WCC_ CombinedDec.doc i

COPYRIGHT: The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Wollongong City Council. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Wollongong City Council constitutes an infringement of copyright.

LIMITATION: The sole purpose of this report and the associated services performed by Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd (SKM) is to UNDERTAKE A RISK ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION PLAN in accordance with the scope of services set out in the contract between SKM and Southern Councils Group. That scope of services, as described in this report, was developed with Southern Councils Group. In preparing this report, SKM has relied upon, and presumed accurate, certain information (or absence thereof) provided by the Client and other sources. Except as otherwise stated in the report, SKM has not attempted to verify the accuracy or completeness of any such information. If the information is subsequently determined to be false, inaccurate or incomplete then it is possible that our observations and conclusions as expressed in this report may change. SKM derived the data in this report from a variety of sources. The sources are identified at the time or times outlined in this report. The passage of time, manifestation of latent conditions or impacts of future events may require further examination of the project and subsequent data analysis, and re-evaluation of the data, findings, observations and conclusions expressed in this report. SKM has prepared this report in accordance with the usual care and thoroughness of the consulting profession, for the sole purpose of the project and by reference to applicable standards, procedures and practices at the date of issue of this report. For the reasons outlined above, however, no other warranty or guarantee, whether expressed or implied, is made as to the data, observations and findings expressed in this report. This report should be read in full and no excerpts are to be taken as representative of the findings. No responsibility is accepted by SKM for use of any part of this report in any other context. This report has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of, Southern Councils Group and is subject to, and issued in connection with, the provisions of the agreement between SKM and Southern Councils Group. SKM accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this report by any third party.



ii

Contents Executive Summary 5

1. The project 6

1.1. Objective 6 1.2. Method 7

2. Risk Context Establishment 9

2.1. Organisational Objectives 9 2.2. Stakeholders 9 2.3. Risk Assessment Criteria 9 2.4. Key Elements 9 2.5. Climate Change Scenarios 10

3. Risk – Identification, Analysis and Evaluation 12

3.1. Risk Identification 12 3.2. Risk Analysis 12 3.3. Risk Evaluation 12 3.4. Further investigation 12 3.5. Uncertainties 12 3.6. Risk Assessment Appraisal 13

4. Risk Assessment Findings 15

Extreme risk 18 Planning and Development 18 Environment 19 Corporate and Community Services 19 Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services 20 High risks 20 Planning and Development 20 Environment 20 Community and Corporate Services 20 Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services 21 Distribution of climate change risks 21 Summary 22

5. Communication and Consultation 23

5.1. Communications Plan 23 5.2. Internal and External Stakeholders 23 5.3. Ongoing Communication with/from Stakeholders 25 5.4. Further communications of final report 25



iii

6. References 28

Appendix 1: Historical Climate 29

Appendix 2: Climate change scenarios 37

Appendix 3: SCG Risk Analysis Criteria 46

Appendix 4 : Register of risks to planning and development 50

Appendix 5 : Register of risks to environment 55

Appendix 6 : Register of risks to community and corporate services 61

Appendix 7 : Register of risks to infrastructure 68



iv

Document history and status Revision Date issued Reviewed by Approved by Date approved Revision type

0 20 March 2009 Tony Church Tony Church 19 March 09 DRAFT

1 27 March 2009 Damian Gibbins

Amy Smith 26 March 09 DRAFT incorporating Council comments

2 13 May 2009 Damian Gibbins

Amy Smith 13 May 2009 FINAL incorporating DCC comments and further Council comments

3 July 2009 Tony Church Amy Smith 14 July 2009 FINAL

Distribution of copies Revision Copy no Quantity Issued to

0 1 electronic Damian Gibbins

0 1 electronic Pat Knight

1 1 electronic Damian Gibbins

1 1 electronic Pat Knight

1 1 electronic Department of Climate Change

2 1 electronic Damian Gibbins, Pat Knight

3 1 electronic Damian Gibbins, Pat Knight

Printed: 7 December 2009

Last saved: 31 August 2009 10:36 AM

File name:

Author: Danielle Kidd/Amy Smith

Project manager: Amy Smith

Name of organisation: Southern Councils Group

Name of project: Wollongong City Council Climate Change Risk Assessment

Name of document: Assessment of climate change risks to Wollongong City Council

Document version: Final

Project number: EN02523


5

Executive Summary This report documents the first stage of the Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation

Project, which is being undertaken for Wollongong City Council. Kiama, Wollongong and

Shellharbour Councils collectively received a Local Adaptation Pathways Program Grant from the

Department of Climate Change (DCC) to undertake the project, which is being administered by the

Southern Councils Group (SCG).

The risk assessment focussed on two climate change scenarios, 2050 and 2070 which were chosen

in consultation with SCG. The predicted changes in climate variables were determined using the

most up to date information on climate change for the Illawarra region, which included the CSIRO,

(2007) Climate Change in Australia and DECC (2008) Summary of climate change impacts –

Illawarra region.

The risk assessment framework was designed to identify, assess and evaluate risks across four

functional areas of Council; planning and development, corporate and community services,

infrastructure and infrastructure services and environment. Uncertainty is an inherent feature of

climate change and the risk assessment provides a valuable tool for understanding and managing

uncertainty. Decisions about consequence, likelihood and risk rank are driven by perception and

the process drew on the opinion and experience of Council staff and key stakeholders through a

workshop setting to ensure perceptions of risk were as informed as possible.

A final register of all risks was prepared following the workshop. Risks ranked as ‘high’ or

‘extreme’ are selected as those which need addressing by Council. Adaptation options for these

risks will be investigated in the second stage of the project, to formulate an Adaptation Action

Plan.


6

8. The project 8.1. Objective

The objective of this project is to identify and assess the key risks that climate change poses to the

achievement of local government objectives in the municipality of Wollongong City Council, and

identify appropriate risk management and adaptation strategies. The project is being

administered by the Southern Councils Group (which in this project context includes only Kiama,

Wollongong and Shellharbour Councils). The project is being undertaken in two phases.

11) Risk Assessment – this phase involved risk assessment workshops with key Council staff and

contractors with responsibility for planning and development, corporate and community

services, infrastructure and environment.

12) Adaptation Action Plan – this phase will involve developing strategies for addressing extreme

and high level risks identified through the risk assessment which will be reported in the form

of an action plan.

The project is examining the impacts of climate change on key functional areas of Council,

including planning and development, corporate and community services, infrastructure and

infrastructure services and environment within the Council region. In undertaking this task, the

impact of climate change on a number of assets have been identified.

This report provides the outcomes of the first phase of the project.


7

8.2. Method

The risk assessment was carried out in accordance with the Australian Greenhouse Office3 (2006),

Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Error! Reference source not found. illustrates the stages which have been completed to date and

where they are documented within this report.

n Figure 8-1 Steps in Project Methodology

3 The AGO no longer exists as a Government body and all functions for administering the LAPP program now reside with the Department of Climate Change


8


9

9. Risk Context Establishment 9.1. Organisational Objectives

Wollongong City Council has the following objectives which have been considered in the

development of the risk assessment framework:

n Encourage economic growth supported by adequate provision of infrastructure and services

n Protect and promote a sustainable environment

n Strengthen the position of urban centres to attract new development

n Protect the cultural, European and Aboriginal heritage of the local area

n Promote community wellbeing and cohesion

n Provide good governance and sound financial management

9.2. Stakeholders

A number of Stakeholders were identified within Council (internal) and outside Council (external),

including Government departments, emergency services, NSW Police etc. Details of Stakeholders

and consultation are provided in Chapter 8.

9.3. Risk Assessment Criteria

In order to understand the consequence of a risk posed by climate change a number of success

criteria were identified. Success criteria are a summary of the Council’s long term objectives and

define what the community most desires to be protected from climate change. Six success

criteria have been chosen for this project;

1) Public Safety 2) Asset Damage 3) Environment and Sustainability 4) Local Economy and Growth 5) Health, Community and Lifestyle 6) Public Administration.

The success criteria have been established in line with the Guidelines provided in Climate Change

Impacts and Risk Management – A Guide for Business and Government and modified to meet the

needs of Wollongong City Council. For details see Attachment 3.

9.4. Key Elements

The risk assessment framework was structured around a division of Council functions into four

key areas. This nominal division of functions was designed to facilitate the risk assessment

workshop process and approximate the current corporate structure of Wollongong City Council. A

more detailed consideration of the relationship between climate change risks and Wollongong


10

City Council functions is included in the subsequent Wollongong City Council Climate Change

Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (Figure 9-1). A number of assets were identified using GIS

data and information provided by Councils. These assets were mapped across the LGA and used

as a visual aid during the risk assessment workshops.

n Figure 9-1.1 Council Functional Areas

9.5. Climate Change Scenarios

The project is considering changes in climate from its current state (Appendix 1: Historical

Climate) to 2050 and 2070 based on the climate scenario provided in Appendix 2: Climate change

scenario.

The scenario assumes high-global warming to 2050, which is consistent with current emissions

trends. The selection of two scenarios was made in consultation with the Southern Councils

Group, based on advice from Department of Climate Change (DCC) that scenarios which are at

Planning and Development

Corporate and Community

Services

Infrastructure

Environment

Land use planning for growth areas, industry, residential, commercial, open space

Urban and rural expansion Protection of productive/agricultural land

Waste Management Services

Disaster Planning – SES, police, RFS Recreational utilities and services

Tourist services Agricultural Activities

Major hospitals Other health services

Transport services – buses, trains, air, boats

Water Supply Waste Water Treatment plants

Sewage treatment plant Stormwater Infrastructure

Railways Major and minor roads

CBD infrastructure Port infrastructure Regional Airport

Hinterland Native bushland

Parks and reserves Subtidal habitats

Tidal habitats Estuarine habitats Coastal floodplains Wetlands and rivers

Beach zones


11

least 25 years in advance should be considered and also scenarios which provide a long term

adaptation plan for Wollongong City Council.


12

10. Risk – Identification, Analysis and Evaluation

The three steps of the risk assessment process were carried out consecutively by Council staff and

external stakeholders. Workshop delegates were asked to form small groups and to focus on one

key functional area. Each group was provided with a worksheet to complete the risk

identification, analysis and evaluation.

10.1. Risk Identification

A list of risks was developed by each working group using the climate information provided and

the asset maps produced for the workshop. Delegates were also invited to annotate the maps to

include areas or assets which may be at risk.

10.2. Risk Analysis

Prior to the workshop, delegates received briefing notes detailing the consequence and likelihood

scales to be used to analyse each identified risk. The scales were developed for the sole purpose

of this project and are applicable to a Local Government setting. The scales adopted are included

in Appendix 3: SCG Risk Analysis Criteria.

These scales are defined by the Council and are not necessarily transferrable to another

jurisdiction as the risk context for each council or jurisdiction will differ.

10.3. Risk Evaluation

The likelihood and consequence rating are combined to determine a rank for each risk. This

enables a priority to be assigned to each risk. The priority levels are Extreme, High, Tolerable, Low

or Negligible.

10.4. Further investigation

Some risks identified may require more detailed analysis before determining if they can be

treated or what the appropriate form of treatment may be. To assist Council, part of the

adaptation phase of the project will include recommended actions for further investigation of

identified risks before treatment options can be explored. This process is closely linked to

adaptation planning and considered appropriate to document in the second project phase.

10.5. Uncertainties

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate change. Our climate is shifting into a state that we

have no experience of, and therefore limited reference points from which to make judgements

and decisions. Risk assessment is a valuable tool for understanding and managing uncertainty.


13

Although it is possible to identify the hazards with a reasonable degree of certainty, the

immediate and consequential impacts and the likelihood that they will occur are uncertain. This is

particularly true of impacts on natural systems, which are less well understood than man-made

infrastructure or systems.

The impacts of climate change will be increased or reduced over time by other contextual factors

such as population and demographic changes, social and behavioural change, capacity for

adaptation and future availability of insurance.

The outcomes of both the internal and external workshop were combined to form a register of

risks which are provided in Attachment 4.

10.6. Risk Assessment Appraisal

There are strengths and weaknesses of the workshop process which Council should be aware of

when using the outcomes to develop adaptation strategies. The workshop provided a forum for

selected Council staff to share their experience and knowledge to identify climate change risks.

The worksheets provided to delegates included a pre populated list of assets and functions to

prompt thought around key elements of Council business. This allowed development of a risk

register around key elements, but did not restrict the number of risks identified. Visual aids

provided in the workshop including asset maps, climate change projections and King Tide

photographs were also used to facilitate the risk assessment.

The risk assessment is inherently a subjective process which is influenced by individuals

perception of the consequence and likelihood associated with a risk. All delegates were supplied

with background information prior to the workshops; however it was apparent that the

knowledge of climate change and awareness of potential issues differed across the group. This

can influence the distribution of extreme and high risks amongst the different functional areas

considered. The information collated from the workshop provides a ‘snapshot’ of the risks

identified by Council and external stakeholders. Whilst this provides a starting point for Council to

begin planning for climate change it is important that the assessment is reviewed and updated,

therefore continuing to be a valuable tool.


14


15

11. Risk Assessment Findings Table 4.1a and 4.1b summarises the extreme and high risks for Wollongong City Council with

respect to planning and development. Extreme and high risks for are shown in Table 4.2a and

4.2b for environment, corporate and community services (Table 4.3a and 4.3b) and infrastructure

(Table 4.4a and 4.4b). Extreme risks are unacceptably high and action should be taken to

address these as a matter of priority. High risks are less urgent, but action is still required to

reduce the risk to as low as possible.

n Table 4.1a Extreme risks to planning and development, 2050 and 2070 scenario

EXTREME RISKS 2050 2070

Increase risk of blackouts ü ü

Increased runoff and sedimentation into watercourses/Lake Illawarra ü ü

Damage to existing infrastructure from flooding ü ü

Increased costs of construction ü ü

Climate impacts on housing and building design (existing and future) ü ü

Sea level rise impacting coastal areas ü

Reduced water supply leading to decreased local agricultural productivity

ü

Reduced water supply and increased cost of production ü

Flooding and increased rainfall intensity particularly during summer ü

n Table 4.1b High risks to planning and development, 2050 and 2070 scenario

HIGH RISKS 2050 2070

Sea level rise impacts ü

Bushfire risk to local agricultural land will limit productivity

ü

Reduced water supply and increased cost of production ü

Flooding and increased rainfall intensity particularly during summer ü

Sea level rises and increased storm surges - increase risk to residential areas ü ü

Increased roads and infrastructure costs ü ü

Reduced water supply and increased cost of production ü ü

Increased soil salinity -> rising salty groundwater table and rising sea levels ü ü

Flooding in riparian areas ü


16

n Table 4.2a Extreme risks to environment, 2050 and 2070 scenario


Increased fire risk to Council assets

ü ü

Increased weed growth to native bushland, parks and reserves

ü ü

Increased need for the provision of shade structures in parks and reserves

ü ü

Increased drying of sporting grounds leading to compaction of turf

ü ü

Loss of subtidal/tidal habitats due to storm events

ü ü

Inundation of saltmarshes and vegetation in estuarine habitats

ü ü

Coastal erosion of beaches and dune systems

ü ü


ü ü

Increased inundation of Council rock pools

ü ü

Failure of rock pool shells

ü ü

Higher cost of managing chlorine pools - increased evaporation, lack of shade, increased chlorine use

ü ü

Increased frequency of sewage overflow

ü ü

Undercutting of dunes increases risk of walkway collapse ü

Increased erosion of wetlands and rivers due to higher flows ü

Increased erosion of coastal floodplain due to higher flows ü

n Table 4.2b High risks to environment, 2050 and 2070 scenario


Undercutting of dunes increases risk of walkway collapse ü

Warmer temperatures increases risks of shark attacks ü ü

Increased erosion of wetlands and rivers due to higher flows ü

Increased erosion of coastal floodplain due to higher flows ü


17

n Table 4.3a Extreme risks to corporate and community services, 2050 and 2070 scenario


Increased pressure on emergency services communications - IT, Radio, Telephone

ü ü

Loss of tidal pools

ü ü

Increased isolation of communities due to extreme events restricting transport

access to CBD, University and other major places of employment

ü ü

Increase in cost of insurance/loss of insurance

ü ü

Increase in voluntary resources required to assist emergency services (SES) ü

Increased plant and equipment utilisation for emergency services ü

Reduced development and loss of employment opportunities for community ü

Loss of tourism - eroding assets (eg. Beaches), loss of cultural heritage, loss of

transport infrastructure, loss of amenities

ü

Increase in expenditure for emergency services ü

Increased risk of skin cancer cases due to rising temperatures ü ü

n Table 4.3b High risks to corporate and community services, 2050 and 2070 scenario


Increase in voluntary resources required to assist emergency services (SES) ü

Plant and equipment utilisation for emergency services ü

Reduced development and loss of employment opportunities for community ü

Loss of tourism - eroding assets (eg. Beaches), loss of cultural heritage, loss of

transport infrastructure, loss of amenities

ü

Increased cost to support community services, risk to Council budgets ü ü

Increased risk of heat stress at public events, provision for more natural shade ü

Increase in energy demand due to need for more air conditioning in health services -

increases costs

ü ü

Loss of recreation areas –drying/waterlogging ü

Restricted access to wharves, harbour, jetties and lake assets ü

Increased demand for swimming pools in hotter weather ü


18

n Table 4.4a Extreme risks to infrastructure and infrastructure services, 2050 scenario


Increased contamination from landfill sites due to increased intensity of rainfall (e.g. Whytes Gully and Helensburgh Landfill)

ü ü

Increased risk of STP failure resulting in a capacity surcharge into council drainage system with potential community impact - amenity, health issue, inefficient health response capacity

ü ü

Increased risk of stormwater capacity exceedance leading to channel overflows, scouring, property damage

ü ü

Increased risk to detention basins from saltwater intrusion, extreme raindall, potential embankment failure

ü ü

Failure of railway assets impacts on council infrastructure and community/transport collection

ü ü

n Table 4.4b Extreme risks to infrastructure and infrastructure services, 2050 scenario


Decreased supply of drinking water ü ü Major and minor roads damaged by bushfire and flooding ü ü

Extreme risk


Increases in runoff from intense rainfall events heightens the risk of flooding in low lying areas

and an extension of the flood range, which may include existing and planned infrastructure. This

poses extreme risks to the land available for urban development, such as the West Dapto release

area, located to the south west of Wollongong. Council’s current controls include flood studies

which are highly effective in determining the risk in these areas. However, only 50% of the

proposed catchment studies have been undertaken and with changing rainfall predictions by

2070, it is likely these will need to be reviewed.

Predicted increases in temperature and number of hot days will impact on current and future

housing and building design. For example, there will be an increased demand for residential

cooling systems and shaded landscaped areas for new residential developments. This is likely

lead to an increase in cost of construction and therefore a decrease in housing affordability.


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Environment

The Illawarra region is known for areas of outstanding natural beauty with the Wollongong LGA

having substantial areas of National Park and State Forest. Increase in temperatures predicted in

2050 and 2070 will expose all areas to heightened bush fire risk and consequent impacts on

vegetated areas. Changes in climate variables will increase the likelihood of weed infestation and

decreased biodiversity. Continued drying of parkland will lead to compaction and a reduction in

operational use. Equally, the same areas may be at an increased risk of more frequent

inundation. Council is developing irrigation systems to manage dry conditions on some sports

fields which are considered to be moderately effective, but additional action is likely to be

required.

The Wollongong area has a high level of tourist activity which relies heavily on natural assets such

as Lake Illawarra and its seventeen beaches. Climate impacts such as sea level rise and increasing

temperatures can cause loss of the beach strip and damage to the dune system, in addition to

increased inundation of salt marshes. Undercutting of coastal dunes increases the risk of walkway

collapse, which poses a threat to public safety.

Increases in runoff and storm events could cause a reduction in water quality due to high flows

carrying litter and contaminants leading to increased sedimentation of watercourses. Higher

flows from increased runoff may also lead to increased erosion of the coastal floodplains.

Increased flows may lead to an increased frequency of sewage overflow. Current controls

including sewage overflow programs and licences are very effective in managing these conditions.

Corporate and Community Services

An increase in natural disasters including bush fires and floods will put considerable pressure on

emergency services. This will increase the demand on volunteers in organisations such as the SES,

and will also impact directly on Council, as many staff are currently volunteers. Wollongong

Council has policies in place to release staff during emergencies which may require review.

Extreme events may restrict transport access to the Wollongong CBD, University and other major

places of employment. This is currently managed by the Disaster Plan, but Council would need to

monitor climate change predictions to ensure the plan remains current.

The community relies heavily on recreational amenities such as beaches and tidal pools which are

at risk of inundation due to sea level rise in both climate scenarios. Loss of amenity and

recreational assets has a negative impact on community health and well being.

With an increase in bush fires, flooding and sea level rise there is likely to be an increase in

insurance premiums. Residents may also find insurance companies refuse to insure properties

which are at high coastal or inland flood risk. An increased number of hot days will put pressure

on power supplies, which are critical to emergency services for disaster management.


20

Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services

Water supply systems are at risk of contamination from landfill sites due to increased intensity of

rainfall (e.g. Whytes Gully and Helensburgh Landfill). Current licensing requirements are

considered highly effective in managing this risk. Failure of the Sewage Treatment Plant at

Wollongong due to increased rainfall intensities or threatened power supply during storms could

result in a capacity surcharge into the Council drainage system. This would have significant

impacts on public health and safety. Council may need to coordinate a management strategy

with key stakeholders to address this risk.

Increased rainfall intensity threatens the capacity of stormwater assets including detention

basins, pipes and channels. The existing controls include design standards which are moderately

effective in managing current assets, however there will be a need to update these to manage

increased rainfall intensities in the future.

High risks


A predicted increased in the frequency of extreme events will limit the available productive

agricultural land and could cause an increase in food prices at the local, in addition to regional and

national levels. Sea level rise will increase soil salinity in some areas which may impact the

agricultural diversity of the region. Predicted sea level rises pose high risk to coastal areas,

particularly low lying Port Kembla, Kemblawarra and North Wollongong. This has the potential to

increase costs for infrastructure upgrades.

Environment

High risks to the environment include increased erosion of coastal floodplains due to higher flows

from increased runoff by 2050. The general warming of temperatures throughout the summer

months may prolong the shark season leading to an increased risk of attacks and closure of

beaches. This has negative impacts on public health and social well being.

Community and Corporate Services

An increase in temperature will increase likelihood of airborne disease being spread by

mosquitoes. Increases in temperature will cause an increase in heat related illnesses, which is a

particular risk for the elderly residents of the community. There will be knock on impacts on

demand for health service provision and a need to recruit more health professionals to cope with

the rising demand.

There will be increased usage of air conditioned public buildings (i.e. libraries, community centres

etc) as hot days become a more frequent occurrence. This will increase the need for resources to

staff the facilities and increase the energy demand for each building.


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Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services

The possible decrease in available rainfall by 2070 threatens the existing water supply from the

Water Treatment Plant at Sublime Point. Existing water drinking guidelines and licensing provide

existing controls, but these may need to be reviewed by Council as rainfall predictions are

updated.

Major and minor roads are subject to flooding and bushfire risk which can cause damage to the

roads (e.g. Old Princes Highway). Current maintenance schedules may need to be reviewed to

manage the increased likelihood of damage to these transport corridors.

Distribution of climate change risks

The risk assessment process identified and analysed 75 risks to Wollongong City Council planning

and development, corporate and community services, infrastructure and environment. Of the

total identified, 33% of climate change risks in 2050 and 28% of risks in 2070 were considered as

low, moderate or tolerable to Wollongong City Council after current control measures are taken

into account. As illustrated above, the majority of risks to Wollongong City Council (67% for 2050

and 72% for 2070) are classified as extreme or high. There is some shift in risk ranking between

2050 and 2070, however, based on the assumption that some control measures would be

developed in that timeframe to mitigate impacts. In the majority of cases, risk ranking remained

the same or increased due to the uncertainty of climate change and any adaptive measures which

may/may not be available in the elapsed period.

n Figure 11-1.1 Distribution of climate change risks in 2050


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n Figure 4.2 Distribution of climate change risks in 2070

Summary

Throughout the assessment common themes were identified across the functional areas of

Council which would be at risk from climate change For example, the issue of budget allocations

and funding to address some of the impacts identified was a common theme. The combined

effects of increased temperatures, occurrence of extreme weather events and sea level rise

present considerable risks to the natural and built environment and to human health and safety.

While cumulative impacts of climate change possibly represent the extremes in climate change

risk they nonetheless present challenges beyond those of the individual risks associated with a

change in individual climate variables and will require a coordinated response across the Illawarra

region.


23

12. Communication and Consultation 12.1. Communications Plan

Following the project inception, a communications plan was developed for the purpose of

ensuring that the development of the risk assessment and adaption plans takes into consideration

the views of key stakeholders. Five objectives of the communications plan were identified as

follows;

1) Identify key internal and external stakeholders responsible for managing climate change risks

2) Communicate key messages on climate change projections for the LGA to the stakeholders

3) Explain how climate change may affect Council assets and functions (through the use of

workshop visual aids)

4) Provide opportunities for stakeholders to participate in the risk assessment and adaptation

planning

5) Record stakeholder comments and include in the preparation of the risk assessment and

adaptation reports

12.2. Internal and External Stakeholders

In consultation with SCG, it was agreed that stakeholders would include representatives from

Council (internal) and other organisations (external). The staff who attended the Wollongong City

Council Risk Assessment Workshop are listed below.

Council Functional Area Workshop Delegate

Wayne Douglas

Jon Bridge


Ron Zwicker

Martin Parmenter

Tony Miskiewicz

Garry Meusburger

Environment

Jason Foye

Jason Hall

Laurie Boyle

Corporate and Community Services

Tracy Venaglia

Michael Malone

Marina Porteous

Infrastructure and Infrastructure

Services/

Angela Toniato


24

Robert Dinaro

Chris Kelly

Peter Garland

A list of external delegates is provided below. As external stakeholders have interests across all

three Councils, one workshop was held to capture their contributions to the risk assessment. This

was considered to be the most efficient way of maximising efficiency and allowing all key

delegates to attend.

Organisation Workshop Delegate

Kiama Council Bryan Whittaker

Shellharbour Council Simon Illife

John Bubb

Marina Porteous

Wollongong Council

Jo Ferguson

SES –Region and Wollongong City Unit

Dianne Gordon

Peter Higgins

SES- Kiama Unit David Leigh,

SES-Shellharbour Unit Richard Hart,

SES-Wollongong Unit Warren Helson

Danny Sharkey Police

Ken McDonald Deputy LEOCON Wollongong

Rural Fire Service

Maree Larkin

Curtis Gregory SESIAH

Franca Facci

Health Department Glenis Lloyd

NSW Maritime Craig Whitmore

Murray McMillan Surf Life Saving

Gerald Davies SLSI

Department of Primary Industry Liz Yeatman

Tony Hodgins

Mark Conlon

DECC

Phil Watson

RTA Mark Clark


25

Graham Towers Dept of Planning

Katrina Zantiotis-Linton

Dept of Lands Mark Edwards

Port Kembla Authority Jim Robinson

SCG Pat Knight

Kiama Sue Pritchard

Shellharbour Andrew Williams

The following organisations were invited to the workshop but were unable to attend;

n NSW Ambulance

n NSW Fire Brigade

n Australian Volunteer Coastguard

n National Parks and Wildlife Services

n Lake Illawarra Authority

n RailCorp

n Sydney Water

12.3. Ongoing Communication with/from Stakeholders

The following steps have been taken to ensure Stakeholders remained informed of the project

progress and outcomes

n Delegate briefing notes were circulated to all participants prior to their attendance at the

workshop.

n At completion of the workshop, all delegates were invited to fill in a feedback/evaluation

form to allow SKM to further understand current climate change awareness and improve the

workshop format for the adaptation phase

n Worksheets completed at the workshop were circulated to Council Project Officers for

review.

12.4. Further communications of final report

The outcomes of the project will be submitted to the Executive Management Committee (EMC) at

Council. The EMC will be recommended to endorse an internal consultation process during their

review. This will include integration of adaptation actions into the Wollongong Management Plan

and other relevant divisional business plans. Although the plan will remain the responsibility of

the Environment Strategy and Planning Division, inputs will be sought from relevant divisions to


26

update risks and develop actions on an annual basis. This process will enable the report to be a

“living document” which is reviewed and updated accordingly.


27


28

13. References Australian Greenhouse Office (2006). Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for

Business and Government.

Chiew, F.H.S., Piechota, T.C., Dracup, J.A. and McMahon, T.A. (1998), El Nino Southern Oscillation

and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought - links and potential for forecasting, Journal of

Hydrology, 204, 138-149.

CSIRO (2005). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Kiama Local Government Area

CSIRO (2007). Climate Change in Australia.

Kiem, A.S., Franks, S.W. and Kuczera, G. (2003), Multi-decadal variability of flood risk. Geophysical

Research Letters, 30(2), 1035, 10.1029/2002GL015992.

Kiem, A.S. and Franks, S.W. (2004), Multi-decadal variability of drought risk - Eastern Australia.

Hydrological Processes, 18(11), 2039-2050.

Local Emergency Management Committees of Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama (2008).

Emergency Risk Management Report.

Local Government Association of Queensland (2007). Adapting to Climate Change – A Queensland

Local Government Guide.

NSW Government Department of Environment and Climate Change (2008). Summary of climate change impacts – Illawarra region.

NSW Government Department of Planning (2007). Illawarra Regional Strategy 2006 – 31.

Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. and Mehta, V. (1999), Inter-decadal modulation of the

impact of ENSO on Australia, Climate Dynamics, 15(5), 319-324.

Ropelewski, C.F. and Halpert, M.S. (1996), Quantifying Southern Oscillation - precipitation

relationships, Journal of Climate, 9, 1043-1059.

Verdon, D.C., Wyatt, A.M., Kiem, A.S. and Franks, S.W. (2004b), Multi-decadal variability of rainfall

and streamflow - Eastern Australia. Water Resources Research, 40(10), W10201,

doi:10.1029/2004WR003234

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/

http://www.ema.gov.au

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/

http://www.ema.gov.au


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Appendix 1: Historical Climate Assessment of historical climate variability - Southern Councils region

Average climate

The Illawarra region is mostly cool temperate, with an average annual rainfall of approximately 1100 mm, uniformly distributed throughout the year with a slight summer-autumn dominance. Average and minimum temperatures vary across the region and are influenced by the proximity of the coast. Monthly average temperature and rainfall for Wollongong and Kiama are shown in Figure 1- 1 and Figure 1- 2.

n Figure 1- 1 Monthly average temperature (max and min) for the Wollongong and Kiama region

.


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n Figure 1- 2 Monthly average rainfall for the Wollongong and Kiama region.

Climate variability

The Illawarra region is strongly influenced by a number of large-scale climate modes, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), resulting in high interannual variability in the region. Figure 1- 3 demonstrates the strong impact of ENSO on rainfall, using the Dapto rain gauge (68022) as an example. Note there are three phases of ENSO; El Niño, La Niña and Neutral.

n Figure 1- 3 Impact of ENSO on rainfall (EN=El Niño, LN=La Niña, N=Neutral)

Figure 1- 3 demonstrates that rainfall is much higher during the La Niña phase of ENSO compared to the El Niño phase. The average rainfall received during a La Nina event is 40 to 50% greater than during an El Niño event. In addition, extreme events tend to occur less frequently during the


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El Niño phase. ENSO is also known to influence the occurrence of events such as bushfires, storms and heatwaves.

Eastern Australia has also experienced a number of shifts in climate during its history, resulting in periods of high rainfall and storminess and low temperatures and bushfire risk, followed by the reverse conditions. These ‘shifts’ have tended to occur every 20 to 30 years and are associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The impacts of these changes on the coastline are also well documented, with beach erosion and realignment often occurring during the ‘switch’ between the two phases. For example, between 24 May and 18 June 1974, three periods of erosive wave conditions dramatically changed the character of many beaches along the central and southern New South Wales Coast. Inside Jervis Bay, normally inactive beaches lost up to 25m of their dune systems. Outside the bay, on southeasterly facing Cudmirrah Beach, surveyed rates of dune retreat increased northwards from 2m to 40m, exposing a previously buried boulder beach, bedrock cliff and rock platform. This period represents a time when the IPO was transitioning from a negative phase into a positive phase. The timeseries of the IPO and the relative impacts are illustrated in Figure 1- 4.

n Figure 1- 4 Timeseries of the IPO, highlighting periods of elevated or suppressed rainfall, storminess, temperature and bushfire risk.

History of extreme events

The Illawarra region has experienced regular floods, bushfires and severe storm events since settlement of the region. The following tables summarise some of the extreme events that have been documented in the region (note this list does not include all events, merely a summary of the most notable). The location of the event as well as a summary of the damage caused is outlined in each table. This information will be used when considering current and future climate risks in the region. Table 1- 1lists various major flood events, Table 1- 2 highlights bushfire events


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that have affected the region and Table 1- 3 outlines some of the severe storm events the region has experienced.

n Table 1- 1 History of severe floods (source - http://www.ema.gov.au)

Date Region affected

Damage ENSO class

Jan 1860 Wollongong The severity of the floods caused deaths and great damage and led to the rebuilding of Nowra as it was originally located in a low-lying area near the Shoalhaven River.

La Niña

Apr 1950 Wollongong Concrete causeway on West Dapto Rd were destroyed. 17 people evacuated from homes in Dapto district when floods lapped into rooms of cottages.

La Niña

Jun 1950 Coastal NSW The highest known flood levels to date occurred in a number of major river systems, with most rivers in eastern, particularly coastal, NSW affected and heavy damage in many areas. There were 26 deaths and heavy property and agricultural losses.

La Niña

Feb 1955 Eastern NSW Extreme floods caused great loss of life and property when almost every river system in NSW flooded.

La Niña

Oct 1959 Wollongong Hundreds of people stranded at Kembla Grange as Highway flooded up to 2.5m for 1.2km. Hundreds of acres of farmland damaged at Dapto and Kembla Grange. All roads from Dapto to Wongawilli flooded. Fowlers Rd and Cleveland Rd damaged.

Neutral

Apr 1963 NSW (in particular Wollongong)

A man from Milton, on the NSW South Coast, drowned when he was swept by surging waters off a road into a ditch near the town. The tragedy followed as the Princes Highway was cut at Milton stranding truck & car drivers.

Neutral

Mar 1975 Wollongong Semi-trailer driver trapped on West Dapto Rd. ‘Water swept through 20 houses in Burringbar Ave Dapto which has never previously experienced flooding’

La Niña

Feb 1984 Wollongong A record 797mm rain fell at Wongawilli in 24 hours. Over 100 properties in the Dapto and Brownsville areas were damaged. Severe damage occurred at Kembla Grange industrial estate. Dozens of people had to be rescued by boat or helicopter.

La Niña

Apr 1988 flood +landslide

Wollongong Landslide which resulted from a combination of human interference & 2 weeks of heavy rainfall had fatal consequences. A 20m high railway embankment collapsed after earth & rock ballast used to fill an old mine dam became saturated & caused severe under mining & subsidence.

La Niña

Feb 1992 NSW A spate of violent storms caused a series of flash floods across Sydney & NSW causing large-scale damage & severe disruption. The SES & volunteer bushfire brigades were called on to remove fallen trees from roads. The Princes Highway was cut in several places at various times over the fortnight of flooding.

Neutral

Sep 1993 –Berry flash Flood

Wollongong NSW - Berry/south coast - Flash flood Neutral

Aug 1998 Illawarra/ Wollongong

Rainfall intensities at several pluviometers exceeding 120 mm hr-1 over a duration of one hour, with up to 249 mm falling in 3.5 hours during the main storm burst. Widespread erosion

La Niña

http://www.ema.gov.au)


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occurred particularly where urban development had encroached on natural water courses. Debris/ hyperconcentrated flows originating from both anthropogenic and natural sediment sources caused damage to urban areas.

Feb 2008 Illawarra/Sho

alhaven More than 200 millimetres fell in the region, on the New South Wales south coast, resulting in the closure of many roads and the rescue of two young men caught in a causeway at Kiama. In all, the SES received 290 calls for help in the region.

La Niña


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n Table 1- 2 History of severe bushfires (source - Council of Australian Governments, National Inquiry on Bushfire Mitigation and Management 2004)

Date location No. deaths Ha burnt losses ENSO class

1964–1965 Snowy Mountains, Southern Tablelands, Nowra, Sydney

5 530 000 Houses, farms, forests

Neutral *

1968-1969 South Coast , much of the coastal and nearby range areas of the state

14 > 2 000 000 161 buildings (80 houses)

El Niño

1979–1980 Mudgee, Warringah and Sutherland Shires, majority of council areas, Goulburn and South Coast

13 >1 000 000 14 houses Neutral *

1982–1983 Blue Mountains, Sutherland and southern NSW

3 60 000 $12 million of pines

El Niño

1993–1994 North Coast, Hunter, South Coast, Blue Mountains, Baulkham Hills, Sutherland, most of Royal National Park, Blue Mountains, Warringah– Pittwater

4 >800 000 (>800 fires)

206 houses destroyed, 80other premises destroyed

El Niño

1997–1998 Hunter, Blue Mountains, Shoalhaven, Menai, Coonabarabran, Padstow Heights, South Windsor – Bligh Park

3 >500 000 (250 fires)

10 houses destroyed

El Niño

2002–2003 81 local government areas in Greater Sydney, Hunter, North Coast, Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers, northwest slopes, north-west plains, Central Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Illawarra, South Coast

3 1 464 000 (459 fires)

86 houses destroyed; 3400 stock; 151 days of severe fire activity

El Niño

* note preceding year was an El Nino


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n Table 1- 3 Selected severe storm events (source – P Hellman PhD Thesis, Southern Cross University 2007 & http://www.ema.gov.au)

Date Type of Event Location Summary of Damage Jul 1866 Very severe

Storm CAWARRA STORM ‘the great gale’

Whole NSW coast

Furious storm, some 20 vessels and over 100 lives lost from Lady Elliot Is to Wollongong ‘one of the worst gales ever recorded on the north coast’.

May 1889 Strong East Coast Low

Whole NSW coast

Extreme event, strong southerly gales and heavy seas, damage Sydney and Kiama

May 1896 Breakwater damage

Wollongong Heavy gales damaged breakwater

Jan 1911 Tropical cyclone

SEQ to all NSW

TC from Gulf to inland NSW, crossed coast Wollongong then E. Severe gale to coast, ships could not enter Moreton Bay and Sydney gusts over 70kts

Jul 1912 Extreme shoreline damage erosion

NSW Low from NT crossed coast Newcastle 999hPa and deepened. S gales, very rough seas, 235t boulder carried onto Bondi Beach. Shoreline damage and waves breaking over a kilometre offshore inside Sydney Harbour. 50 kg boulders from retaining walls ‘tossed like corks’ and lifted 3m above HWM. Beach with storm profile and over 3m face in dune ‘much like an ocean beach’ in a storm

Feb 1934 Severe tropical cyclone

Whole NSW coast

TC tracked from gulf to NSW coast, floods central and SEQ. Heavy N gales and large waves, storm surge in Hervey and Moreton Bays. Moreton Bay gauge, largest recorded storm surge 1.16m Intense gradients to 988hPa Southern Tasman. Very severe coastal storm. Heavy swell on all beaches. 12m waves at Sydney

Jun 1950 Series of storms

Whole NSWE coast

Major damage to Sydney beaches and facilities, seawall collapse at Balmoral, Manly, Nielson Park and Cronulla (surf club collapsed into sea) and extensive damage to foreshore structures along NSW coast

Feb 1978 Severe storm Sydney and Wollongong

Severe storms affecting the areas of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong over the two days and caused damage and power failures to many homes, injured eight people and caused extensive damage. A tornado accompanied one thunderstorm in the Drummoyne/Hunters Hill area of Sydney, lifting the entire roof off one home and damaging many others.

Jan 1988 Severe storm Wollongong NSW - Wollongong (south coast) - High winds flattened part of the world scout jamboree camp near Wollongong, causing 40 injuries including broken limbs

Nov 1991 Severe storm Wollongong NSW - Manyana, near Nowra - A tornado destroyed 6 houses & damaged 150 houses in the coastal resort village, south of Nowra. Property damage also occurred at nearby Lake Conjola, Cunjurong & Bendalong. The storm cut a swathe about 220m wide & 5km long through these coastal towns before returning to sea. Caravans were overturned in parks & private residences.

http://www.ema.gov.au)


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All power to some of the towns had to be cut because of the dangerous fallen wires, which resulted in lengthy power cuts..

Aug 2000 Hailstorm Wollongong Following a Weather Bureau severe storm warning, heavy rain and large hailstorms struck about 4.45pm. The hail caused traffic chaos on Mt Ousley Rd sparked by a six-car crash as ice covered the roads. Traffic came to a standstill on the freeway leading into Wollongong from Sydney. The SES received calls from about 10 households whose roofs had been damaged by hail during the downpour. There were about 30-40 minutes of hail.

Sep 2002 Severe storm gale

Sydney and Wollongong

Gale force winds which were raging at more than 90 km/h, caused havoc across Sydney and parts of NSW. A large part of NSW was declared a natural disaster area. The Illawarra and Southern Highlands through to the Lower Hunter were all affected, with extensive damage reported in 30 areas. The Emergency Services Minister stated that the worst affected areas were around Wollongong, Shellharbour, Goulburn, Wollondilly and in the Sutherland Shire.

Jun 2007 Severe Storm Wollongong (and coastal NSW)

In June 2007 erosion was caused via storms to the beaches, the worst in 30 years.


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Appendix 2: Climate change scenarios Climate Change Scenarios for use in risk assessment - Southern Councils region

Introduction

In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their fourth assessment report, concluding that:

n Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,

n It is very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue well into the future,

and that they will be larger than those seen in the recent past; and

n These changes have the potential to have a major impact on human and natural systems

throughout the world including Australia.

Global warming is driven by long-lived greenhouse gases. Of concern is that emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities have grown by 70% between 1970 and 2004 (IPCC 2007). Regardless of the actions that we take today, further changes to our climate are highly likely. This is because about half of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities is absorbed by the oceans and biosphere, leaving half in the atmosphere where it has a lifetime of 50–100 years.

In 2000, the IPCC published a series of projected greenhouse gas emissions scenarios that could be used to assess potential climate change impacts. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios, known as the ‘SRES scenarios’, grouped scenarios into four families of greenhouse gas emissions (A1, A2, B1, and B2) that explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic, and technological driving forces:

n A1 – the story line assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that

peaks mid-century and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. A1 is

divided into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change: fossil

intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy resources (A1T), and a balance across all sources (A1B).

n B1 – describes a convergent world, with the same global population as A1, but with more

rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy.

n B2 – describes a world with intermediate population and economic growth, emphasising local

solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability.

n A2 – describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic

development and slow technological change.

The emission projections are widely used in the assessments of future climate change, and their underlying assumptions with respect to socioeconomic, demographic and technological change serve as inputs to many recent climate change vulnerability and impact assessments. The impacts of increasing greenhouse gases on the earth’s climate are assessed using global climate models (GCMs). These models simulate the processes that govern the Earth’s climate, including the interaction between the atmosphere, oceans, ice and snow covered regions, and land surfaces with vegetation cover.


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Uncertainty in Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change scenarios are inherently highly uncertain. There are many reasons for this uncertainty, including uncertainty in the emission scenarios used to run the GCMs. For example, the SRES scenarios do not include additional climate policies beyond those current at the time and there is no likelihood attached to any of these scenarios. The SRES scenarios, whilst carefully constructed, did not allow for a ‘worst case’ scenario, or a ‘best guess’ scenario. Consequently they can be difficult to comprehend, and have the danger of under-estimating the risks.

Confidence in GCM predictions is higher at global and continental scales than at sub continental and regional scales. This is because the climate models are based on an incomplete understanding of a highly complex global climate system and do not as yet realistically reproduce the natural climate cycles (e.g. such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation etc.). This is particularly important for Australia where these climate phenomena are the primary drivers of interannual and multi-decadal variability on a regional scale.

The above limitations result in different climate models producing a wide range of responses to the greenhouse forcing. For certain elements of the climate system, such as surface temperature, there is broad agreement on the pattern of future climate changes between individual GCMs. Other elements, such as rainfall, are related to more complex aspects of the climate system, including moisture transport, and are not represented with the same confidence in models.

Development of climate change projections for Southern Councils Climate Change Risk program

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Reports provide limited detail on Australian climate change, particularly when it comes to regional climate change projections. To overcome this, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology have developed climate change projections for Australia and have produced a report entitled ‘Climate change in Australia’ (CSIRO 2007). This information is based upon international climate change research including conclusions from the IPCC's fourth assessment report. It also builds on a large body of climate research that has been undertaken for the Australian region in recent years.

The spatial resolution of climate change projections (i.e. typically 250km by 250km grid squares) is too coarse to infer regional impacts, particularly in regions where altitude, distance from the coast, land cover etc vary considerably across the grid squares (which is often the case in coastal Australia). For this reason, researchers have developed various downscaling methodologies in order to provide regionally specific information on climate change impacts. Recently the NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change (DECC) commissioned the University of New South Wales (UNSW) to undertake downscaling of climate change information for the NSW region. Consequently, climate change projections for rainfall and temperature have recently been published by DECC for the Illawarra region as part of this joint venture. The climate change projections are provided at a resolution of 50km by 50km, enabling variability in climate change impacts to be assessed within NRM regions.

Given the available information, the climate change projections developed for the Southern Councils Climate Change Risk program are based on:

1) DECC (2008) ‘Summary of climate change impacts – Illawarra region’;


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2) CSIRO (2007) ‘Climate Change in Australia’; and

It should be noted that there are several key differences between the climate change projections provided by DECC (2008) and those provided by CSIRO (2007). The CSIRO (2007) climate change scenarios are based on a general consensus among all 23 global climate models (GCMs) included in the 2007 IPCC report. In contrast the DECC (2008) scenarios are based on the four ‘best’ GCMs (assessed on their ability to replicate the daily rainfall and temperature probability density functions for NSW). DECC (2008) have opted for using fewer models that better replicate the historical record in order to reduce the uncertainty in the climate change projections. There are also differences in the emission scenarios used by DECC (2008) and CSIRO (2007) to generate these projections. DECC (2008) have used a single high global warming emission scenario (i.e. A2), while CSIRO (2007) provide climate change projections based on a low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1F1) global warming scenario. The time horizons and resolution of information also differ between the two sources. Table 2- 1 summarises the key differences between the two sources of climate change information.

n Table 2- 1 summary of key differences between DECC and CSIRO climate change projections

Source of information

CSIRO DECC

Publication year 2007 2008

Resolution 250km x 250km 50km x 50km

Number of GCMs used in analysis

23 4

Time horizons available 203, 2050, 2070 2050

Emission scenarios low (B1), medium(A1B), high (A1F1)

high (A2)

In this project, the DECC (2008) projections have been adopted as the primary source of climate change information for 2050, with CSIRO (2007) scenarios used to provide an estimate of the range (uncertainty) of possible futures. Climate change scenarios for other time horizons are not currently available from DECC, thus CSIRO (2007) projections have been adopted for the 2070 horizon.

Global emissions are currently tracking higher than the worst case emissions scenario (i.e. the A1F1 or A2) and it is unlikely that emissions will reach the low or median emissions target by 2050, therefore a single high emission scenario has been adopted for 2050. However, there is more uncertainty around emission scenarios for 2070, therefore the climate change projections for all three emission scenarios (low, medium and high) have been compiled for this time horizon. The SRES scenarios are shown in Table 2-2.


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n Table 2- 2 SRES scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios

Summary of climate change impacts on the Illawarra/Southern Councils region for 2050 and 2070 relative to 1990

Temperature

Illawarra is likely to become warmer, with more hot days and fewer cold nights. Days are projected to be hotter over all seasons, with the greatest warming in winter, spring and autumn (DECC 2008). Increased peak summer energy demand for cooling is likely, with reduced energy demand in winter for heating. Warming and population growth may increase annual heat-related deaths in those aged over 65, while higher temperatures may also contribute to the spread of vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne diseases.

Rainfall

It is projected that rainfall will increase in all seasons except winter by 2050 (DECC, 2008). This increase is expected to be substantial in summer, while smaller increases are expected in spring and autumn. It is important to note that, although the most likely scenario for rainfall is for an increase during summer, autumn and spring, there is also the potential that rainfall will decrease during these seasons according to CSIRO (2007). By 2070 the range of projections for rainfall is wide, with the potential for both a decrease and increase in rainfall to eventuate (CSIRO 2007).

Evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiration is projected to increase across all seasons, with the most significant change occurring in summer and spring (DECC, 2008). Overall, there is likely to be no significant change in average annual runoff by 2050 (DECC, 2008). However, there may be a change in the seasonality in runoff, with likely increases in summer and autumn and decreases in winter and spring. If the drier end of the range of climate change projections were realised, towns with smaller water


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supplies would need to consider that there may be inflow reductions of 10% during drier periods by 2050 (DECC, 2008). There is currently no reliable information available on projected changes in runoff expected by 2070.

Extreme Weather

The occurrence of extreme weather events are likely to increase. Australia is likely to experience an increase in the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall under climate change. The average number of days per year with very high or extreme fire danger is also predicted to increase. The fire season is also likely to be extended as a result of warmer temperatures. Increases in extreme weather events are likely to lead to increased flash flooding, strains on sewerage and drainage systems, greater insurance losses, possible black-outs, and challenges for emergency services.

Sea Level Rise

Sea level is projected to rise up to 40cm above 1990 mean sea level by 2050 (DECC, 2008), with further increases expected by 2070 (note projections provided by CSIRO are lower than those of DECC). Coastal erosion is likely to result in a recession of the sandy parts of the coastline. Rising sea levels and the potential for increased storminess are likely to have an impact on beaches, coastal rivers and estuaries. Settlements located along the coast and adjacent to estuaries are likely to face increased risk of flooding as sea levels rise. The rise in sea levels is also likely to increase the risk of flooding in parts of the lower floodplain. Flood producing rainfall events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity, which may result in flooding from urban streams and drainage systems. Major roads such as the Princes Highway are likely to be flooded from time to time at low-lying sections.

Biodiversity

Higher temperatures and drier conditions are very likely to have a major impact on biodiversity (particularly those ecological communities already stressed due to fragmentation). Changes in average climate will affect building design, standards and performance and energy and water demand.

Quantitative changes in temperature, rainfall, evaporation, runoff and sea level rise for 2050 and 2070 are highlighted in the following tables.


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n Table 2- 3 Summary of climate change projections for 2050 relative to 1990 climate, high emission scenario

*This information is based on a global average, considerable regional variability is expected

DECC (2008) CSIRO (2007) – High emissions scenario Variable

10th Percentile 50th percentile 90th percentile

Annual average temperature N/A +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C +2.5 to +3°C

summer +1.5 to +3 °C +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C +2.5 to +3°C

autumn +2 to +3 °C +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C +2.5 to +3°C winter +2 to +3 °C +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C +2 to +2.5°C

Seasonal average temperature

spring +2 to +3 °C +1 to +1.5°C +2 to +2.5°C +2.5 to +3°C Annual average rainfall N/A -20% to-10% -10% to -5% +5% to +10%

summer +20 to +50% -20% to -10% -2% to 2% +10 % to +20%

autumn +10 to +20% -20% to -10% -5% to -2% +10 % to +20% winter -5 to +10% -40% to -20% -10% to -5% +5% to +10%

Seasonal average rainfall

spring +10 to +20% -40% to -20% -20% to -10% +5% to +10% Annual average potential evapotranspiration

N/A +2% to +4 % +4 % to +8% +8% to +12%

summer -1 to +22% N/A N/A N/A

autumn -6 to +14% N/A N/A N/A winter -12 to +3% N/A N/A N/A

Seasonal average runoff

spring -10 to +1% N/A N/A N/A Sea level rise* + 0.4m +0.096m N/A +0.278m


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n Table 2- 4 Summary of climate change projections for 2070 relative to 1990 climate, low emission scenario


CSIRO (2007) – Low emissions scenario

Variable

10th Percentile 50th percentile 90th percentile Annual average temperature +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C +2 to +2.5°C

summer +0.6 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C +2 to +2.5°C autumn +0.6 to +1.5°C +1 to +2°C +2 to +2.5°C winter +0.6 to +1°C +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C


spring +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C 2 to +2.5°C Annual average rainfall -20% to-10% -5% to -2% +2% to +10%

summer -20% to -10% -2% to 2% +10 % to +20% autumn -20% to -10% -5% to -2% +10 % to +20% winter -40% to -20% -10% to -5% +5% to +10%


spring -40% to -20% -10% to -5% +5% to +10% Annual average potential evapotranspiration

+2% to +4 % +4 % to +8% +4% to +8%

summer N/A N/A N/A autumn N/A N/A N/A winter N/A N/A N/A


spring N/A N/A N/A Sea level rise* +0.145m N/A +0.333m


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n Table 2- 5 Summary of climate change projections for 2070 relative to 1990 climate, medium emission scenario

* This information is based on a global average, considerable regional variability is expected

CSIRO (2007) – Medium emissions scenario

Variable

10th Percentile 50th percentile 90th percentile Annual average temperature +1.5 to +2°C +2 to +2.5°C +3 to +4°C

summer +1 to +1.5°C +2 to +2.5°C +3 to +4°C autumn +1 to +1.5°C +2 to +2.5°C +3 to +4°C winter +1 to +1.5°C +1.5 to +2°C +2.5 to +3°C


spring +1.5 to +2°C +2 to +2.5°C +3 to +4°C Annual average rainfall -20% to-10% -10% to -5% +5% to +10%




+2% to +4 % +4 % to +8% +8% to +12%





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n Table 2- 6 Summary of climate change projections for 2070 relative to 1990 climate, high emission scenario


CSIRO (2007) – High emissions scenario

Variable

10th Percentile 50th percentile 90th percentile Annual average temperature +2 to +2.5°C +3 to +4°C +4 to +5°C

summer +1.5 to +2°C +3 to +4°C +4 to +5°C autumn +1.5 to +2°C +2.5 to +3°C +4 to +5°C winter +1.5 to +2°C +2.5 to +3°C +3 to +4°C


spring +2 to +2.5°C +3 to +4°C +4 to +5°C Annual average rainfall -40% to-20% -10% to -5% +5% to +10%




+2% to +4 % +4 % to +8% +8% to +12%





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Appendix 3: SCG Risk Analysis Criteria Success Criteria

In order to understand the consequence of a risk posed by climate change it is necessary to

identify a number of success criteria. These are selected to align with objectives set by Local

Councils. Six success criteria have been chosen for this project;

1) Public Safety 2) Asset Damage 3) Environment and Sustainability 4) Local Economy and Growth 5) Health, Community and Lifestyle 6) Public Administration.

The success criteria have been established in line with the Guidelines provided in Climate Change

Impacts and Risk Management – A Guide for Business and Government and modified to meet the

needs of Wollongong City Council. The success criteria are combined with a consequence scale to

form a matrix of descriptions, which will be used to define the consequence rank for each risk

identified.

The success criteria and consequence scales are provided in Table 3- 1.


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n Table 3- 1 Success Criteria and Consequence Scales

Public Safety Asset Damage

Environment and

Sustainability

Local Economy and

Growth

Community and

Lifestyle Public Administration

Rank Safety Assets Env Econ Social Pol

Catastrophic

Definite fatality(ies)

and permanent

disabilities

Significant damage

to most assets

resulting in loss of

capability.

Complete loss of

environmental

amenity and

irrecoverable damage

Regional decline leading

to widespread business

failure, loss of

employment and

hardship

The region would be

seen as very

unattractive, unable to

support the community

Public administration would

fall into decay and cease to be

effective

Major

Multiple long term

personal injury,

illness/possible

fatalities

Significant damage

to many assets

resulting in very

limited capability

Serious long term

environmental

damage to

environmental

amenity

Regional stagnation

such that businesses are

unable to thrive and

employment does not

keep pace with

population growth

Severe and widespread

decline in services and

quality of life within the

community threatened

Public administration would

struggle to remain effective

and would be seen to be in

danger of failing completely

Moderate

Personal

injury/illness

requiring medical

treatment (no

hospitalisation)

Damage to assets

resulting in isolated

loss of capability

Short term significant

but reversible

environmental

damage

Significant general

reduction in economic

performance and

limitation on growth

General appreciable

decline in lcoal services

Public administration would be

put under severe pressure on

several fronts

Minor

Personal injury (first

aid treatment)

Damage to assets

resulting in

restrictions in

capability

Minor damage to

isolated assets which

could be reversed

Individually significant

but isolated areas of

reduction in economic

performance relative to

current forecasts

Isolated but noticeable

examples of decline in

services

Isolated instances of public

administration being under

severe pressure

Insignificant

No personal injury Minor damage

requiring increased

maintenance

No environmental

impact or damage

Minor shortfall relative

to current forecasts

There would be minor

areas in which the region

was unable to maintain

its current services

There would be minor

instances of public

administration being under

more than usual stress but it

could be managed


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Likelihood

A fundamental part of conducting any risk assessment is the consideration of likelihood. For each

climate scenario the likelihood of a particular risk occurring is described as Almost Certain, Likely,

Possible, Unlikely or Rare. Deciding which likelihood category to assign to a risk is assisted by

considering the frequency of that risk occurring. Some risks may be considered as a single event

(such as destruction of an endangered species) or recurring events (such as flood damage to

buildings). A widely used likelihood scale is shown in Table 3- 2 which includes descriptions of

recurrent and single event risks. This approach will be used for the study.

n Table 3- 2 Likelihood Scale

Likelihood Likelihood of the Scenario Resulting in the Consequence

Almost Certain (AC) Recurrent risks: Could occur several times a year;

Single event: More likely than not - Probably greater than 50%

Likely (L) Recurrent risks: May arise about once per year;

Single event: As likely as not - 50/50 chance

Possible (P) Recurrent risks: may arise once every ten years;

Single event: Less likely than not but still appreciable

Unlikely (U)

Recurrent risks: May arise once every ten years to 25 years;

Single event: Unlikely but not negligible - probably low but

noticeably greater than zero.

Rare (R) Recurrent risks: unlikely during the next 25 years;

Single event: negligible - probably very small, close to zero

Evaluating Risks

The last stage of the risk assessment is to prioritise the risks identified to provide direction to the

adaptation plan. Risks can be ranked by combining the consequence and likelihood scales to form

a matrix, as shown in Table 3- 3 and interpreted in Table 3- 4.


49

n Table 3- 3 Risk Priority Levels

Consequence

Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

Almost Certain

(AC) Tolerable High Extreme Extreme Extreme

Likely (L) Low Tolerable High Extreme Extreme

Possible (P) Low Tolerable Tolerable High Extreme

Unlikely (U) Negligible Low Tolerable Tolerable High

Rare (R) Negligible Negligible Low Tolerable High

n Table 3- 4 Interpretation of Risk categories

Extreme Risks demand urgent attention at the most senior level and cannot be simpley accepted as a part of routine operations without executive sanction

High Risks that are severe but can be accepted as a part of routine operations without executive sanction

Tolerable Risks can be expected to form part of a routine operations but they will be explicitly assigned to relevant managers for actions maintained under review and reported upon at a senior level

Low Maintained under review but is expected that existing controls will be sufficient an and no further action required to treat them

Negligible Risk can be dismissed as considered to not require review and no controls will be required to treat them


50

Appendix 4 : Register of risks to planning and development Note: The Keys for Abbreviations are provided in Appendix 3, Table 3-1 to 3-4.

2050 2070 Key Element Impact Assumptions

Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Land Use Planning

Increase risk of blackouts BASIX,

DCP/BCA 66% - 95% Env Maj AC Extreme Maj AC Extreme

Land Use Planning

Sea level rise impating coastal areas- Port Kembla, Kemblawarra, North Wollongong, Windang

Assets Mod L High Maj AC Extreme

Land Use Planning

Increased runoff and sedimention into watercourses/Lake Illawarra

Completed WSUD, DCP 33% - 66% Env Maj AC Extreme Maj AC Extreme

Land Use Planning

Sea level rises and increased storm surges - increase risk to residential areas

Coastal hazard risk management studies

5% - 33% Assets Mod L High Mod L High


51


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Land Use Planning

Flooding and increased rainfall intensity particularly during summer

Frequency, duration and extent of storm event

Flood studies - only 6 out of 12 catchments

33% - 66% Assets Mod L High Maj AC Extreme

Land Use Planning

Increase in bushfires limit availability of developable land

Fire event

NSW RFS modelling and planning for bushfire protection guidelines

66% - 95% Econ Min L Tolerable Min L Tolerable

Urban Development

Reduction in UDP lands due to climate constraints

West Dapto Release Area studies, flood studies

66% - 95% Econ Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable

Urban Development

Increased roads and infrastructure costs

Bushfire risk studies 33% - 66% Econ Mod L High Mod L High

Urban Development

Damage to existing infrastructure from floods

Uncertainty over flooding and sea level rise

Sydney Water, WCC, Integral risk management plans - asset management

33% - 66% Assets Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme


52


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Urban Development

Increased costs of construction Econ Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme

Urban Development

Accessibility during flood events

Extent of flooding impacts

West Dapto Release Area flood studies


Economic Development

Loss of agricultural land due to soil erosion/gully erosion

Frequency and extent of dry periods

Planning studies, Soil Conservation Guidelines



Reduced water supply and increased cost of production

Sydney Water, DCP, SEPP, Sydney Catchment Management Authority

33% - 66% Econ Mod L High Maj L Extreme


Increased soil salinity -> rising salty groundwater table and rising sea levels

CSIRO only - no WCC studies

5% - 33% Econ Mod L High Mod L High


53


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking


Bushfire risk to local agricultural land will limit productivity

NSW RFS modelling and BPB Guidelines, WCC Bushfire Risk Management

33% - 66% Econ Mod L High Mod L High


Extreme weather variations -> heat, hail, wind, rainfall intensity -> decreased agricultural supplies -> increased cost of produce

CSIRO studies only 5% - 33% Econ Mod L High Maj L Extreme

Urban Development

Flooding in riparian areas

WCC flood studies for West Dapto

66% - 95% Econ Mod P Tolerable Mod L High

Urban Development


Regional Strategies 33% - 66% Pol Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme


54


55

Appendix 5 : Register of risks to environment Note: The Keys for Abbreviations are provided in Appendix 3, Table 3-1 to 3-4.

2050 2070 Key

Element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Parks and Reserves

Increased fire risk to native bushland, parks and reserves

Land use plans, APZ - Maintenance

66% - 95% Safety Cat AC Extreme Cat AC Extreme

Parks and Reserves


APZ work 5% - 33% Env Maj AC Extreme Maj AC Extreme

Parks and Reserves

Tracks washed away due to increased rain

Bush Restoration work 33% - 66% Assets Min P Tolerable Min P Tolerable

Parks and Reserves

Inadequate provision of shade structures in parks and reserves

No policy to drive shade structures 5% - 33% Safety Maj AC Extreme Maj AC Extreme


56

2050 2070 Key


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Parks and Reserves

Compaction of turf on sporting grounds

Seasonal Renovation Program, Irrigation Systems

33% - 66% Assets Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme

Parks and Reserves

Winter - reduced availability of sporting grounds due to water logging and damage

Assessment on Day if viable to play, else close grounds

Assets Min L Tolerable Min L Tolerable

Wetland Habitats

Loss of sub tidal/tidal habitats due to warmer storm events

Loss of habitat 5% - 33% Env Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme

Wetland Habitats

Inundation of salt marshes and vegetation in estuarine habitats

Estuary Opening Policy, Estuary Management Plan

5% - 33% Env Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme


57

2050 2070 Key


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Wetland Habitats

Increased algal blooms

Build up of algae around Lake cases odours when decomposing

LIA, Remove algae to reduce odour

Safety Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable

Rivers and coastline

Increased erosion of coastal floodplain due to higher flows

Riparian Restoration Work

5% - 33% Env Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme



Riparian Restoration Work

Env Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme


Increased visitation leading to skin cancer

66% - 95% Safety Cat AC Extreme Cat AC Extreme


58

2050 2070 Key


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking


Increased shark attacks and increase in season length

Patrols, Aerial Patrols Safety Maj P High Maj P High


Reduced beach strip due to coastal erosion

Coastal fencing to restrict area 5% - 33% Env Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme


Undercutting of dunes increases risk of walkway collapse

Dune maintenance crew to mountain Tracks

66% - 95% Env Mod L High Maj L Extreme



Litter bins, Clean up of beaches 5% - 33% Safety Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme


59

2050 2070 Key


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking


Increased inundation of rock pools- restrict usage

Clean Pool Assets Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme


Failure of rock pool shells

Fencing around pools, Regular water storage maintenance

Assets Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme


Increased risk of pools fill with sand

Cost to remove sand from pools Assets Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme


Pumping assets, Increased inundation of saltwater pools - can't pump water

Maintenance, Close pool if can't pump

Assets Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable


Chlorine pools - increased evaporation, lack of shade, increased chlorine use

Rainwater tanks, recycling Safety Maj AC Extreme Maj AC Extreme


60

2050 2070 Key


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking


Narrow strip, people using dune area - damage

Dune maintenance crew

Env Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme



Sewage overflow program, Licence issues

66% - 95% Safety Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme


61

Appendix 6 : Register of risks to community and corporate services Note: The Keys for Abbreviations are provided in Appendix 3, Table 3-1 to 3-4.


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Disaster Management

Increase in expenditure for emergency services

Pol Min L Tolerable Cat L Extreme

Disaster Management

Impacts on emergency services - IT, Radio, Telephone

Lack of access to areas Pol Cat L Extreme Cat L Extreme

Disaster Management

Increase in voluntary resources required to assist emergency services (SES)

Increase frequency and scale

Current policies for staff to attend emergencies (EA)

66% - 95% Pol Mod L High Maj L Extreme

Disaster Management

Plant and equipment utilisation for emergency services

Increase frequency and scale

WCC's Displan -EOP 66% - 95% Pol Mod L High Maj L Extreme


62


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Recreation Services

Loss of operation due to increase in temperature or water logging

Extreme wet/dry, rising sea level

Programmed maintenance program, controlled usage policy, improved watering system, more durable surfaces (glass type)

66% - 95% Social Min L Tolerable Mod L High

Recreation Services

Restricted access to wharves, harbour, jetties and lake assets

Tidal surge Social Min P Tolerable Mod L High

Recreation Services

Loss of tidal pools

Rising sea level

Climate Change factored into current planning process

Social Mod AC Extreme Mod AC Extreme

Recreation Services

Increased demand for swimming pools in hotter weather

Social Min L Tolerable Mod L High


63


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Tourist services

Loss of natural assets (e.g. Bulli tops) due to bushfire and landslip

Bulli Tops

Geotechnical Survey and Design, Bushfire Prevention Design

66% - 95% Econ Insig P Low Insig P Low

Tourist services

Loss of tourism - eroding assets (eg. Beaches), loss of cultural heritage (Aboriginal and European), loss of transport infrastructure, loss of amenities

LEP/DCP, Building Regulations, DMP

Social Mod L High Maj L Extreme


Reduced development and loss of employment opportunities for community

Social Maj P High Maj L Extreme


64


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Community Health

Increased demand on health services for the elderly

Climate change impact on health

Planning Processes, Budget Allocation, Design Standards

66% - 95% Safety Min U Low Mod P Tolerable

Community Health

Increased demand on resources to run health facilities - additional costs

Social Min U Low Min U Low

Community Services

Increase in energy demand due to need for more air conditioning in health services - increases costs

Social Mod L High Mod L High

Community Services

Changes in money allocation to support community services, risk to Council budgets

Planning Processes, Budget Allocation, Design Standards

66% - 95% Social Mod L High Mod L High


65


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Transport services

Extreme events may restrict transport access to CBD, University and other major places of employment including out of Wollongong LGA to Sydney employment etc.

Displan 66% - 95% Social Maj L Extreme Maj AC Extreme

Community Services

Impact on WCC Personnel, Leads to impact on council Services -> impact on community

EOP Pol Min P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable


66


Existing

Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Community Health

Increase temperature increases demand for refrigeration and increases risk of contaminated food

Increased temperature Safety Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable

Community Health

Leachate Ponds Overflow - contamination and risk to health

Rainfall Planning, design 66% - 95% Safety Mod U Tolerable Mod U Tolerable

Community Services

Increase in cost of insurance/loss of insurance

Insurance policies 66% - 95% Social Maj AC Extreme Maj AC Extreme

Community Health

Increased risk of heat stress at public events, provision for more natural shade

Social Mod L High Mod P Tolerable


67


68

Appendix 7 : Register of risks to infrastructure

2050 2070 Key Element Impact Assumptions Existing Controls

Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Water Supply

Threatened supply of drinking water (WTP at sublime Point- 4 facilities -> catchment capacity (Loddon River))

supply and demand

meets drinking water guidelines, APZ, Licensing(NPLUS)

66% - 95% Safety Maj P High Maj P High

Water Supply

Threatened non-potable supply which allows functioning of building assets

supply and demand, price point (financially viable)

33% - 66% Env Mod U Tolerable Mod U Tolerable

Water Supply

Impact on water harvesting for council facilities eg. Parks, depots

supply and demand, price point (financially viable)

33% - 66% Env Mod U Tolerable Mod U Tolerable


69


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Wastewater

Contamination from landfill sites due to increased intensity of rainfall (Whytes Gully and Helensburgh Landfill)

Rainfall transpiration permeability landfill contents exist?

Licensing requirements 66% - 95% Env Maj L Extreme Maj L Extreme

Wastewater Functioning of sceptic systems - stand alone

NSW Health Department Guidelines

5% - 33% Env Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable

Wastewater

STP failure results in a capacity surcharge into council drainage system with potential community impact - amenity, health issue, inefficient health response capacity

No upgrade of current system

Design Safety Cat P Extreme Cat P Extreme


70


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Stormwater Stormwater capacity of channel, bank overflow, scouring, property damage

Rainfall patterns, temperatures

Development -> DCP/LEP, Design Standards for Channel to surrounding structures

33% - 66% Assets Cat L Extreme Cat L Extreme

Stormwater

Detention Basins - Saltwater inundation from increased sea levels, potential under capacity, embankment failure

Rainfall patterns, temperatures

Regulations and design controls, dsep

33% - 66% Assets Cat P Extreme Cat P Extreme

Stormwater

Risk to Water Quality Devices - exceedance of treatment capacity, low capacity, water theft, bloom, eg. SQIDs, treatment ponds (WQIP)

Rainfall patterns, temperatures, biodiversity

Design, DCP 5% - 33% Env Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable


71


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking

Transport Infrastructure


Railcorp Assets Cat L Extreme Cat L Extreme


Major and minor roads impacted by bushfire, ponding, decreased oil and bitumen eg. Old Princes Hwy

Temperatures, rainfall

Design of road, vegetation on either side, maintenance schedule

33% - 66% Assets Maj P High Maj P High


Recreational infrastructure - Maintenance/operational constraints, decline in usability

Temperatures, rainfall DCP/LEP 33% - 66% Social Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable


72


Effectiveness

of controls

Consequence

Scale Used

C L Risk

Ranking C L Risk

Ranking


Regional airport (heliport) - inundation/isolation due to storm events, tank rupture potential

Temperatures, rainfall

Licence, DCP, LEP, CASA, Disaster Management Plans

Env Mod P Tolerable Mod P Tolerable


73


74

Appendix C Risks Table


75

Planning and Development Risk Identified in Risk Assessment Workshops

Risk Used in Adaptation Planning Workshops

2050 Risk rank

2070 Risk rank

Increase risk of blackouts Increase risk of blackouts Extreme Extreme

Increased runoff and sedimentation into watercourses/Lake Illawarra Damage to existing infrastructure from flooding Flooding and increased rainfall intensity particularly during summer Flooding in riparian areas

Damage to existing and future development and infrastructure from flooding

Extreme Extreme Increased costs of construction Increased roads and infrastructure costs

Increased costs of construction

Extreme Extreme



Extreme Extreme

Sea level rise impacting coastal areas Increased soil salinity due to rising sea levels etc. Sea level rises and increased storm surges - increase risk to residential areas Sea level rise impacts

Sea level rise impacting coastal areas

High Extreme Reduced water supply leading to decreased local agricultural productivity

Reduced water supply and increased cost of production Bushfire risk to local agricultural land will limit productivity

Reduced water supply leading to changes in agricultural productivity and costs

High Extreme


76

Environment Risk Identified in Risk Assessment Workshops Risk Used in

Adaptation Planning Workshops

2050 Risk rank

2070 Risk rank

Increased fire risk to Council assets Increased bush fire risk to parks and reserves Extreme Extreme


Increased weed infestation of parks, reserves and native bushland Extreme Extreme

Loss of sub tidal/tidal habitats due to storm events

Inundation of salt marshes and vegetation in estuarine habitats

Loss of sub tidal/tidal habitats due to climate change and subsequent loss of biodiversity Extreme Extreme

Coastal erosion of beaches and dune systems Undercutting of dunes increases risk of walkway collapse

Coastal erosion of beaches and dune system Extreme Extreme


Reduction in water quality due to sedimentation and high flows carrying litter Extreme Extreme

Increased erosion of wetlands and rivers due to higher flows Increased erosion of coastal floodplain due to higher flows


Extreme Extreme


77

Corporate and Community Services Risk Identified in Risk Assessment Workshops


2050 Risk rank

2070 Risk rank

Increased pressure on emergency services communications - IT, Radio, Telephone Increase in voluntary resources required to assist emergency services (SES) Increased plant and equipment utilisation for emergency services Increase in expenditure for emergency services

Increased pressure on emergency services (resources and facilities)

Extreme Extreme

Loss of tidal pools Failure of rock pool shells

Loss of recreational assets (i.e. tidal pools, beaches)

Extreme Extreme

Increased isolation of communities due to extreme events restricting transport access to CBD, University and other major places of employment

Increased isolation of communities due to extreme events

Extreme Extreme

Loss of tourism - eroding assets (eg. Beaches), loss of cultural heritage, loss of transport infrastructure, loss of amenities

Reduced tourist revenue (loss of beaches, eroding escarpment etc.)

High Extreme

Increased cost to support community services, risk to Council budgets

Higher cost of managing chlorine pools - increased evaporation, lack of shade, increased chlorine use Increased demand for swimming pools in hotter weather

Increased cost to support community services (i.e. health services)

High High

Increased risk of skin cancer cases due to rising temperatures Increased risk of heat stress at public events, provision for more natural shade Increased need for the provision of shade structures in parks and reserves

Increased risk of heat stress

Extreme Extreme

Increase in energy demand due to need for more air conditioning in health services - increases costs Reduced development and loss of employment opportunities for community Increase in cost of insurance/loss of insurance

Increasing cost of utilities/rate increases for local community

High High

Loss of recreation areas –drying/waterlogging Restricted access to wharves, harbour, jetties and lake assets

Increased drying of sporting grounds leading to compaction of turf Increased inundation of Council rock pools

Reduced use of recreational facilities due to increased climatic variability

High High

Warmer temperatures increases risks of shark attacks

Increased use of beaches due to increasing sea temperatures High High


78

Infrastructure and Infrastructure Services Risk Identified in Risk Assessment Workshops


2050 Risk rank

2070 Risk rank

Increased contamination from landfill sites due to increased intensity of rainfall (e.g. Whytes Gully and Helensburgh Landfill)

Increased rainfall intensities increases contamination from landfill sites

Extreme Extreme

Increased risk of STP failure resulting in a capacity surcharge into council drainage system with potential community impact - amenity, health issue, inefficient health response capacity


Increased risk of Sewage Treatment Plant failure

Extreme Extreme

Increased risk of stormwater capacity exceedance leading to channel overflows, scouring, property damage Increased risk to detention basins from saltwater intrusion, extreme rainfall, potential embankment failure

Exceedence of capacity of stormwater systems (including embankment failure) due to higher intensity rain events

Extreme Extreme


Increased risk of rail service malfunctions in warmer temperatures

Extreme Extreme

Decreased supply of drinking water Threatened potable water supply High

High

Major and minor roads damaged by bushfire and flooding

Increased damage to major and minor roads due to extreme weather events

High High


79

Appendix D Adaptation Matrix


80


81

Appendix E Workshop Delegate Lists


82

Council Workshop 27 April 2009

Workshop Delegate

Wayne Douglas

Jon Bridge

Ron Zwicker

Tony Miskiewicz

Rebekah Lambert

Angela Toniato

Peter Garland

Damian Gibbins

Carl Hopley

External Stakeholder Workshop 7 May 2009

Organisation Workshop Delegate

SES –Region and Wollongong City Unit

Dianne Gordon

SES- Kiama Unit David Leigh

Rural Fire Service

David Bartlett

Health Department Glenis Lloyd

Department of Primary Industry Craig Muir

DECC Tony Hodgins

Dept of Planning Graham Towers

Port Kembla Authority Jim Robinson

Kiama Municipal Council Sue Pritchard, Darren Brady

Documents

Adaptation Strategy and Plan WCC CombinedDec · The SKM logo trade mark is a registered trade mark of Sinclair Knight Merz Pty Ltd. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan