Adaptation to climate change –

exploring the potential of locally

adapted breeds

Irene HoffmannAnimal Production and Health Division, FAO

GGAA Conference, UCD, 23-26 June 2013

Outline

• Global trends

• Breed diversity

• Climate change impact and adaptation

• Breed diversity and climate change• Breed diversity and climate change

–Material and methods

–Results

• Conclusions

Global trends by 2050

• >40 percent increase in world population, mostly in developing countries

• 70% urban people with higher incomes

• Absolute and relative decline of rural population

• Diet shifts• Diet shifts

• Average consumption from 2800 (2000) to 3130 kcal person/day (2050)

• Agricultural production increase by 60 percent

– nearly 100 percent in developing countries

Increases in agricultural production, past & future

1961/63 2005/7 20501960/61-

2005/72005/7-

2050

Mill MT or persons Increment in percent

World

Population 3133 6372 8796 103 38

Cereal prod. 843 2012 3009 139 49

Meat prod. 94 249 461 165 85Meat prod. 94 249 461 165 85

Milk prod. 580 1040 80

Developing countries

Population 2139 5037 7433 135 48

Cereal prod. 353 1113 1797 215 61

Meat prod. 42 141 328 236 132

Developed countries

Population 994 1335 1362 34 2

Cereal prod. 490 900 1212 84 35

Meat prod. 52 108 133 108 23

Bruinsma,

• 26 % of all land for pasture• 35 % of all arable land for feed• 58 % of anthropog. biomass appropriation• 8 % of all freshwater• 18 % of GHG emissions, incl. land use • 18 % of GHG emissions, incl. land use change

• Biodiversity loss

• 1.5 % of all world GDP

Global Plan of Action for Animal Genetic Resources

we we

Arabic, Bahasa Indonesia, Chinese, Czech, Danish, English, French, German, Greek, Japanese, Nepalese, Norwegian, Polish, Portugese, Russian, Slovakian, Spanish, Thai

in preparation: Burmese, Hindi, Hungarian, Laotian, Korean, Mongolian, Romanian, Serbian, Turkish, Vietnamese

we we

Different systems and functions

Ca 40% of agricultural GDP

1980-2010:• 4% production growth p.a.• 7% production value growth p.a.

Livelihoods of 70% of rural poor

Livestock biodiversity

• <40 domesticated species

• Hardly any wild relatives 4000

5000

6000

814

Total breeds

relatives

• 5 species of major global commercial importance

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Mammalian Avian

4583

1998

239

local transboundary

10%

1%

13%

41%

6%1%

9%

4%

31%

Risk status - the global picture

8% extinct22% at risk34% unknown

Mammalian Avian

7%

3%

25%

41%

9%

40%

critical

critical-maintained

endangered

endangered-maintained

extinct

not at risk

unknown

Main drivers and threats to breed diversity

Loss of labour force

Loss of production environment

Replacement of breed functions

Other

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Economic and market drivers

Poor livestock sector policies

Poor conservation strategies

Socio-political instability

Lack of functional institutions

Disease and disease control

GHG emission reduction vs biodiversity

• Efficiency increase results in shifts from

– Diverse multifunctional to high-performance commercial breeds

– Ruminants to monogastrics

– Diverse to controlled environments/stables

– Forage/mixed to concentrate-based diets

But

• Human edible protein balance

• Multiple ecosystem services incl. C-sequestration

Alternatives

• Modified consumption patterns, low meat diets

• Reduced food loss and waste

Climate change impact and sensitivity

Climate change and biodiversity

• Anthropogenic disturbance biggest cause of biodiversity loss

• CC impact models

– Range / climate envelope or empirical niche

– Little consideration of habitat change or population dynamics

• Evidence of

– fast adaptive evolution

– range expansion

• Time lags and tipping points

• CC will affect products and services provided by agricultural biodiversity

• Agricultural biodiversity not yet properly integrated in CC adaptation and mitigation strategies

Impacts of climate change on AnGR

Extensive systems (agro/pastoral, mixed)

Intensive/landless systems

Direct impacts

– Catastrophic events

– disease epidemics

– productivity losses,

– Catastrophic events

– disease epidemics

– productivity losses, – productivity losses, physiological stress

– water availability

– productivity losses, physiological stress

– water availability

Indirect impacts

Agro-ecological changes

– fodder quality and quantity

– host-pathogen interactions

– GHG reduction

Resource price/availability

– feed (production; biofuels)

– energy

– water

– GHG reduction

Variables - unknowns

• Climate variability vs. temperature increase

• Degree of agronomic / managerial adaptation

• Degree of production system / species / breed shifts

• Degree of vegetation or pathogen shifts• Degree of vegetation or pathogen shifts

Factors influencing sensitivity to climate change

Adaptive capacity ResilienceEcology Geographic range expansion

/contractionDispersal, establishment and colonization ability

Biotic/abiotic interaction Competition, facilitation Habitat use Trophic level and relationshipsEcological diversity/specialization Habitat shifts and connectednessDistribution shifts Spatial scale of minimum viable population

Population Reproductive performance Reproductive rates

dynamics Survival ratesReproductive maturity, generation intervalIndividual life traits

Physiology Thermal preference/tolerancePhysiology Thermal preference/toleranceMetabolic requirements Body massDisease resistance

Genetic Population size and structure Population dynamics

diversity Natural/human selection Inbreeding susceptibility

Evolutionary /adaptation/rates Heritability Plasticity Ecological Microhabitat preferences/adjustments

Spatial scale of operationPhenotypical Behavioural flexibility

Shifts in temporal activitiesAcclimation, acclimatization Physiological tolerance rangesDevelopment adjustments

Breed diversity & climate change

DAD-IS data

• 12345 national breed populations (87% local breeds)

• alpaca, ass, buffalo, camels, cattle, chickens, dromedaries, goats, horse, llama, pigs, sheep, vicuna, guanaco

• Ascribed ‘Breed qualities’ : habitat use, physiological • Ascribed ‘Breed qualities’ : habitat use, physiological and plasticity aspects of adaptation

• Climate at country level

– relative humidity of the hottest month (%)

– minimum temperature of coldest month (C)

– maximum temperature of hottest month (C)

– avg max. temperature of hottest month (C)

– avg. min temperature of coldest month (C)

– temperature–humidity index (THI) for the hottest month

Data

Breed quality information on No of all national breed

populations

No of local breeds

General adaptation or susceptibility

1058 665susceptibilityHabitat, production system 834 546

Fertility 674 397

Climate adaptation or susceptibility

663 367

Disease resistance or susceptibility

509 295

Fodder and feeding 413 247

Nat. breed populations by species & general adaptation

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

rustic

rough weather

poorly adapted

locally adapted

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

locally adapted

heat sensitive

hardy

drought susceptibledrought resistant

adaptable

Nat. breed populations by species & habitat adaptation

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%wetlands

steppe

saline conditions

rough terrain

mountains

marginal area

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

marginal area

lowland and highland

lowland

intensive conditions

hills

highland

High mountains

harsh environment

forests

extensive conditions

arid / semi-arid area

Nat. breed populations by species & feeding aptation

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% requires good feed

poor vegetation, good walkerpoor fodder quality

pasture

not demanding

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

not demanding

night grazing

long watering intervals

long watering and feeding intervalsirregular food supply

good walker

good forager

good feed conversion

Nat. breed populations by species & climate adaptation

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% wet mild

wet

temperate

hot humid

hot dry summers, cold winters

hot dry summers and moderate winters

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%wintershot dry

hot and cold

hot

dry

cold wet

cold dry

cold dry

cold

changing temperatures & humidity

Nat. breed populations by avg. temp. of hottest month & general adaptation

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

rustic

rough weather

poorly adapted

locally adapted

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<10 10-20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

locally adapted

heat sensitive

hardy

drought susceptibledrought resistant

adaptable

Nat. breed populations by feeding & general adaptation

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

rustic

rough weather

poorly adapted

0%

10%

20%

30%

40% poorly adapted

locally adapted

heat sensitive

hardy

drought resistant

adaptable

Nat. breed populations by habitat & general adaptation

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

rustic

rough weather

poorly adapted

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%locally adapted

heat sensitive

hardy

drought resistant

adaptable

Nat. breed populations by habitat and feeding adaptation

30

40

50

60

70 requires good feed

poor vegetation, good walker

poor fodder quality

pasture

not demanding

0

10

20

30

night grazing

long watering intervals

long watering and feeding intervalsgood walker

good forager

good feed conversion

coarse vegetation

Spatial overlap

UNCBDUNFCCCUNCCD

locally adapted breeds with ecologically and socially fragile environments

Nat breed populations by habitat & avg min temp. of coldest month

150

200

250

20-24

0

50

100

20-24

10-19

0-9

-9-0

-19--10

-29--20

-40 --30

Nat breed populations by habitat & avg max. temp of hottest month

150

200

250

40-44

0

50

100

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

10-20

<10

Temperature range for ruminants

400

600

800

1000

1200

Cattle n=3042

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

10-20100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Goat n=1184

0

200

-40 --30 -29--20 -19--10 -9-0 0-9 10-19 20-24

10-20

0

50

100

-40 --30 -29--20 -19--10 -9-0 0-9 10-19 20-24

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-40 --30 -29--20 -19--10 -9-0 0-9 10-19 20-24

Sheep n=2413

Temperature range for monogastrics

400

500

600

700

800

Chicken n= 2343

40-44

35-39

30-34200

250

300

350

Pig n=1255

0

100

200

300

-40 --30 -29--20 -19--10 -9-0 0-9 10-19 20-24

25-29

20-24

10-20

0

50

100

150

-40 --30 -29--20 -19--10 -9-0 0-9 10-19 20-24

DAD-IS development

•Management intervention

•Socio-economic aspects

•Natural production environment

Production Environment Descriptors

Management Environment Natural Environment

Disease,

Parasite &

Disease

complexes

Socio-

economic characteristics

Management

interventionClimate

Terrain

Features

Livestock

production

system type

Market

orientationDiseases Temperature Elevation

35

system type

Level of

confinement

Climate

modifiers

Disease &

parasite control

Reproduction

strategies

Feed & water

availability

orientation

Market

targeted

Main uses and

roles

Gender

aspects

Ecto-

parasites

Endo-

parasites

Other known

threats

including:

feed + water

toxins,

predators and

other

harmful

animals

Relative

Humidity

Precipitation

Wind

conditions

Radiation

Day Length

Slope

Soil pH

Surface

conditions

Tree cover

Conclusion

• Under-representation/reporting of locally adapted breeds

• Wide range of resilience and plasticity across species and breeds

• Exploratory mapping of adaptation traits• Exploratory mapping of adaptation traits

• Targeted search for adaptation traits like temperature range and low feed requirement

Recommendations – Ecosystems approach

• Characterization– Methods for phenotypic + molecular genetic characterization of adaptation traits

– Production environment description incl. indigenous knowledge

• Breeding• Breeding– Adjustment of breeding goals

– Development of breeding programmes

– Assessments before introduction of new species / breeds

• Spatial / Rural development – link nature / biodiversity conservation with C-sequestration, local breed conservation, water mgt, social development

• Ruminants back on the grass

• Payment for environmental services schemes

Thank you

B. Besbes, R. Baumung, P. Boettcher,

Supported by the Government of Sweden and the European Commission

P. Boettcher, B. Scherf,A. SauronM. Wieczorek