Adaptation to Climate Change in Livestock sector of Mongolia Batima P., Shiirev-Adya., Bat B., Bayarbaatar L., Tserendash S. AIACC Asia-Pacific region

Adaptation toAdaptation toClimate Change in Climate Change in Livestock sector of Livestock sector of MongoliaMongolia

Batima P., Shiirev-Adya., Bat B., Bayarbaatar L., Tserendash S.

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004


MethodologiesMethodologies Long list Long list Short listShort list AnalysisAnalysis DiscussionsDiscussions

ContentsContents

MethodologiesMethodologies

expert judgmentexpert judgment adaptation screening matrixadaptation screening matrix simulation of animal behaviorsimulation of animal behavior economic analysis of intensive farm economic analysis of intensive farm

development development adaptation decision matrixadaptation decision matrix



Expert judgmentExpert judgment

Long listLong list Pasture and feedPasture and feed Livestock herding practiceLivestock herding practice LivelihoodLivelihood Food supply of big citiesFood supply of big cities Research on climate changeResearch on climate change

AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix


Pasture and feed:19 Livestock herding practice: 15 Livelihood: 14 Food supply of big cities: 3 Research on climate change: 2

AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix


Criteria Opportunity Priority Effectiveness Impact on environment Cost Barrier

Adaptation options Priority Target of Opportunity

Effective-ness

Impact on Environ-

mentCost Barrier

Food supply

Develop intensive dairy farming High High High Low High Medium

Develop intensive farming for meat High High High Low High Medium

Develop intensive farming other than livestock High High High Medium High Medium

CC

Establish climate change monitoring High High High None Medium None

Develop climatic criteria for dzud and drough High High High None Medium None


AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix**

Short listShort list Pasture and livestock herding management

Assessment of the pasture carrying capacity at soum level, Ecological Classification of pasture for livestock herding, Pasture classification by season Develop management concepts for Livestock herding by socio-economic

regions, Develop management system for animal productivity improvement Extension of grazing time

Feed Preparation of supplementary feed: plant and non-plant Encourage to reserve irrigated hay area, Encourage to reserve irrigated pasture,

Livelihood Develop alternative income source Awareness raising and education at all level

Food supply Develop intensive dairy farm near to big cities, Develop intensive farm for meat production near to big cities,


Pasture capacityPasture capacity



Pasture Seasonal CampingPasture Seasonal Camping



H- autumn camping, X-spring camping, 3-Summer camping, Q- winter camping,

movement direction

Pasture Seasonal CampingPasture Seasonal Camping


Socio-Economic regionsSocio-Economic regions

Table 1.Ewe weight changes in increased (10,20,30%) pasture peak biomass

(HADCM3,)

Changes of peak biomass,% 10 20 30 Ecosystem

Impact results 2020

Forest steppe -0.31 -0.17 -0.09 -0.02

Steppe -0.28 -0.10 -0.01 0.18

High mountains -0.03 -0.06 0.02 0.12

Gobi -0.11 0.05 0.15 0.22

2050

Forest steppe -0.78 -0.48 -0.32 -0.08

Steppe -0.46 -0.37 -0.23 0.02

High mountains -0.34 -0.28 -0.12 0.06

Gobi -0.51 -0.26 0.05 0.18

2080

Forest steppe -2.38 -1.41 -1.04 -0.61

Steppe -1.99 -1.42 -1.00 -0.70

High mountains -1.89 -1.89 -0.76 -0.50

Gobi -1.28 -1.61 -0.88 -0.18


Simulation of animal behaviorSimulation of animal behavior vs. vs.

Supplementary feedSupplementary feed


2020 2050 2050Forest steppe 1.2 1.6 2.1Steppe 1.8 1.8 2.4High mountain 0.8 1.2 1.5Gobi-Desert 0 0 0.4

2020 2050 2050Forest steppe 3 3.4 3.6Steppe 3.3 4.2 4.6High mountain 1.9 2.3 2.8Gobi-Desert 0 0 2.1

Supplementary feedSupplementary feed

2080

2080


Preparation of Traditional supplementary feedPreparation of Traditional supplementary feed

Traditionally: hand prepared feed Plant Non-plant

Have prepared hand out on Plant Non-plant


Intensive farmingIntensive farming

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

0 25 50 75 100 125

Agro-climate Soil Landscape Vegetation Climate (max, min and average tº, soil moisture…)

Economic parameters Expenditure Income…….


DiscussionsDiscussions

Three level workshop: Local workshop Workshop at scientific community Workshop at Ministerial level

Present at Permanent Committee for Food and Agriculture of the Parliament


Local workshopLocal workshop

Current adaptation Current adaptation practicepractice

Current adaptation Current adaptation practicepractice

At herder’s levelAt herder’s level

Output of the workshopsOutput of the workshops

Were very effective in terms of Improving the understanding of climate change at

local level and disseminate the research information

Discussing the proposed adaptation options at local level and get feedback from local community

Almost all the adaptation option that was prepared by the expert team have been accepted by the local experts as well as herders


Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity

-2.50

-1.50

-0.50

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-2.00-1.50

-1.00-0.500.000.50

1.001.502.002.50

3.003.50

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

National Eastern Central Khangain-mountain WesternPolicy 3 3 3 3 3Institutional 2 1 1 1 1Technical 2 2 2 1 1Financial 2 1 1 1 1Resource 2 3 1 2 1Infrastructure 2 2 3 2 1Score 13 12 11 10 8

Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity


(Socio-economic adaptive capacity)(Socio-economic adaptive capacity)


Institutional FrameworkInstitutional Framework

Ministry for Nature and Environment

7 Departments 2 Agencies

NAMHEM

IMH

Monitoring

Ministry of Food and Agriculture

2 Departments

Livestock

Academy of science

Institute of livestock

Pasture plants

• institutions are there• no linkage

Adaptation decision matrixAdaptation decision matrix

Adaptation measures Criteria: Socio-economic Criteria Weight Prioritize


Some measuresSome measures

• IMH: predictions• Long term prediction for winter: October-

March• Prediction of pasture resources• Prediction on pasture capacity• Prediction of ewe weight for November-April


Thank you for your attention!

Documents

Adaptation to Climate Change in Livestock sector of Mongolia Batima P., Shiirev-Adya., Bat B., Bayarbaatar L., Tserendash S. AIACC Asia-Pacific region