Adaptation to Climate Change Rajib Shaw

Kyoto University

Contents of the presentation:-What is the problem?-What is climate change?-Climate change and its relation to disaster-Climate change, vulnerability, adaptation-Community based adaptation (CBA)

-CBA and Flood-CBA and Drought-Success of CBA

-Climate change and policy-National-Local-International

-Climate change adaptation model

What is the problem?• People are observing new trends in disaster impacts

• Traditional weather prediction does not work

• Traditional disaster planning and policy are not working

• New development activities are going on, without further consideration of future climatic scenario

• Thus, there is a lack of:

– Proper perception on climate change

– Proper understanding and correlation

– Proper inter-linkages, and

– Appropriate Actions

What is Climate Change?

• Due to increasing human activities at different levels, prominent changes occur in the climate and natural environment

• Climate change is already happening:

– The global mean surface temperature in the 20th century has risen by about 0,6 °C.

• Climate change is also projected:

– The average sea level is projected to rise by between 0.09 and 0.88 m

– The global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4-5.8°C by 2100

• Climate change projections face some crucial issues:

– The projections are often very coarse, and lack local details

– The projections are often far into future, not immediate future

– Better in predicting average change than extreme climatic conditions

Climate Change and Disasters

• Climate change will have a variety of impacts in terms of natural disasters: – More droughts, floods, heat waves, water

shortages, – Increasingly diversion of the typhoon path

• Impacts will hit the poor hardest• Precautionary principle• Climate Change impacts is multiplied with

misguided development

Climate Change and Vulnerability

• Climate change impacts are related to vulnerability of different types: social, cultural, economic etc.

• Important issues are: where are the vulnerable areas, and who are the most vulnerable

• Climate change impacts should be seen at different levels (like international, national and local), and at different issues (like eco-system, settlements, food, health and water)

• Climate change impact and capacity assessment • Climate change vulnerability can be assessed in different

ways: through stakeholder, resource mapping, and sustainable livelihood analysis

What is Climate Change Adaptation?

• Implementation of climate change mitigation measures needs time

• Applicability of climate change adaptation is increasingly recognized

• Focus needs to be on community based adaptation, and local government policy options

• A few steps on climate change adaptation include: 1) preliminary climate risk assessment, 2) assess priorities and plan follow-up, 3) raise awareness, 4) establish and enhance partnership, 5) highlight climate related vulnerability with other actors, 6) document and share experiences, and 7) promote advocacy for adaptive actions.

What is Community Based Adaptation?

• Community based adaptation is getting increasing attention.

• Adaptation responses to date have been largely reactive rather than proactive.

• Proactive Micro-Adaptation (PMA) has a significant potential to be a crucial component of strategies to address impacts of climate change.

• Further, proactive adaptation has considerable policy potential at various levels.

Climate Change Adaptation Model

How CBA can be practiced? Coastal Zone Climate change has affected the coastal zone of the

Philippines The worst sufferers are the fishing communities, due

to change in the coastal eco-system Adaptation measures include local government

policies, awareness raising among different sectors, and national government strategies and policies

How CBA can be practiced? Drought A significant change of rainfall pattern is observed in

Western India, resulting 2-3 consecutive drought years

The worst effect is on livelihoods: agriculture, and animal husbandry

To cope with 3 consecutive years of drought is beyond community coping capacities

Tradition drought proofing needs consideration of climate change uncertainties

Collective efforts are being undertaken for drought proofing

These measures, while implemented at community level, should be part of the local development policies

How CBA can be practiced? Flood Central Vietnam is experiencing large floods,

often resulted due to catastrophic rain or rain due to sudden typhoon.

Agriculture, related livelihood options are deeply affected

In rural areas, the adaptation measures are more on participatory planning, awareness raising, and implementation.

In urban areas, CBA is more related to urban planing, local development planning and policy, and establishing effective communication system.

How CBA can be practiced? Climate Information Providing right climate information to farmers is

one of key issue A few steps are:

Providing climate outlook Transferring global to local outlook Translating climate outlook to local scenario Communication to local farmers

Issues of Community Based Adaptation

• The key issue of climate change community based adaptation is the right information to the community

• Involvement of the community in the process is critical, and is linked to the ownership of the adaptation actions

• Institutionalization at local government development plan is a definite challenge

• Coordination among NGO, local government, and academic is crucial

• High demand for training/awareness raising activities among

stakeholders

Climate Change Adaptation Local

• Incorporate the recommended actions into local government policies

• Special emphasis should be given on agriculture and livelihood support system, and health and education services in the local governments

• Training and awareness raising of local government managers is one of the important aspect of the policy measures

• Resource commitment at local government is the key issue for the success of its adaptation actions

• Multi-stakeholder cooperation is required at local level

Climate Change Adaptation National

• National and international policies set the context for facilitating Proactive micro adaptation (or community based adaptation).

• Good policy coordination on a range of proactive adaptation measures and actions at various levels can help avoid mal-adaptation.

• Resource mobilization is essential.

• Climate change impacts are crosscutting in nature, and require synergies.

Climate Change Adaptation: International

• International climate negotiations to date, however, have paid inadequate attention to community based climate change adaptation

• Bilateral and multilateral development agency should have policy on climate change adaptation

• Actions needs to be taken at international levels should have following emphasis:– Efforts to link with other international initiatives– Emphasis on near future scenario– Risk management approach