© M. Rapinski

AdaptWestData and tools for conservation planning

in a changing climate

Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research

Photo by Scott NielsenWaterton National Park, Alberta, Canada

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Types of conservation assessment

Prioritization

Vulnerability assessment

Management

strategies

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Watson and Venter 2017

Regional

Local

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Primary data: Downscaled climate projections

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IPCC 5th Assessment, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenariosTime periods: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s

Wang et al., 2016

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Derived spatial metrics of climate exposure

Climate Change Vulnerability =

Exposure x Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity

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Carroll et al., 2017

Dawson et al. 2011 Pacifici et al. 2015

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Climate velocity is the speed that an organism needs to travel to keep pace with climate

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Loarie et al. 2009

A species can track climate if climate velocity is less than its potential dispersal rate.

Field et al. (IPCC) 2014

Velocity = °C yr-1 / °C km-1

(temporal gradient / spatial gradient)

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Forward climatic velocity represents the rate that an organism at a given location must move to find a similar suitable climate in the future.

Backward climatic velocity represents the rate at which organisms adapted to the future climate of a given location will need to move to colonize it.

Forward vs. backward velocity

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Carroll et al. 2015

→ (macro)refugia locations (areas of species persistence)

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Species macrorefugia index based on backward velocity

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Model from Stralberg et al. 2015

Bay-breasted WarblerSetophaga castanaea

© B. Majoros, Cornell Lab of Ornithology

Stralberg et al. 2018

Macrorefugia concentrated in mountain and coastal regions

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Stralberg et al. 2018 (GEB)

324 tree species (McKenneyet al. 2011)

268 songbird species

(Distler et al. 2015)

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99 forest species

49 shrubspecies

64 woodlandspecies

29 grasslandspecies

… but vary by species and habitat

Stralberg et al. 2018 (GEB)

Refugia index can be applied to species or ecoregions

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RCP 8.5, 2050s

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Indices can be combined with systematic conservation planning tools to identify priorities

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Stralberg et al. in review

• Spatial optimisation tools can help inform the land-use planning process by identifying areas that are important to biodiversity

• Incorporating ecoregional refugia as a constraint can give insights into the trade-offs that exist when considering climate change in planning

Incorporating ecoregional refugia in biodiversity mapping

RCP 4.5,

2050s

Weighting of ecoregional refugia in

optimisation tool:

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DRAFT

This is a preliminary map showing proof of concept only.

Selection frequency

Slide courtesy of Danielle Pendlebury, AEP, GoA

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Main messages

• AdaptWest (adatpwest.databasin.org) provides data and tools for conservation planning in a changing climate

• Climate exposure metrics are an important component of conversation assessment to inform adaptation measures

• The concept of climate velocity is particularly useful for assessing vulnerability and identifying conservation priorities

• Refugia and corridor metrics can be used as inputs to systematic conservation planning exercises

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The AdaptWest Project team

• Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research • Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta• Scott Nielsen, University of Alberta• Andreas Hamann, University of Alberta• Dave Roberts, University of Alberta• Josh Lawler, University of Washington• Julia Michalak, University of Washington• Caitlin Littlefield, University of Washington

Other collaborators: Travis Belote (TWS), Sean Parks (USDA FS), Solomon Dobrowski (UM), Tongli Wang (UBC), Marc Parisien and Justin Beckers (NRCAN).

• Visit http://adaptwest.databasin.org

• Follow @adaptwest on Twitter for updates on newly available data and webinars

• Contact via email: diana.stralberg@ualberta.cacarlos@klamathconservation.org

For more information:

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Climate-change refugia are areas of species persistence across space and time

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Morelli et al. in press (figure by T. Eaves)

Macrorefugia

Microrefugia

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Projected shifts in ecoregional climate space, RCP 8.5

Baseline 2050s 2080s

Climate change will have dramatic influence on species and ecosystems

Stralberg et al. 2019

…resulting in major challenges for biodiversity conservation and management

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The vulnerability – resilience spectrum

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Resilience Vulnerability

High refugia potential Low refugia potential

Persistence strategies Transformation strategies

Climatic connectivity - protecting areas needed for movement in response to climate change

The persistence of many species under climate change will depend

areas that facilitate dispersal to newly climatically suitable habitat.

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Several methods exist for identifying climate corridors

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Carroll et al. 2018

Current flow

Shortest (least-cost) path

Broad-scale topography and climate influence connectivity paths

Dispersal paths are often funneled by topography into north-south trending passes and valley systems, such as the pass on the right in northern Utah.

Climate connectivity paths also tend to avoid areas of novel and disappearing climates.

Human land uses may further constrain the ability of species to disperse through these areas.