Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland

Security

Discussion of above proposal by

Rex J. Fleming

UCAR

February 17-19, 2003

Contaminated Plumes from NBC Terrorism

Source:

Nuclear or radiation device

Truckload of Anthrax

Large Toxic Gas Release

Time Response:Very Short—Save lives, ease human suffering

Short-term—Move people out of harm’s way

Long Term—Determine when ground zero back to economic productivity

Data Requirements for Plume Models (lowest 20,000 feet):Accurate 4-dimensional input on winds (advection, dry deposition)

Accurate 4-dimensional input on water vapor and temperatures (stability, wet deposition, moist physics/chemistry, etc.)

“Mesoscale” → fine scale structure in winds, temperature, and water vapor fields depicted by high resolution grid points in space and calculated at closely spaced points in time

Nested Mesoscale Models

Geographic extent of the computational grids. Grid 1 has a grid increment of 30 km; grid 2 has a grid increment of 10 km; and grids 3N and 3S have grid increments of 3.3 km. The locations of surface (plus signs) and upper-air (circles) observations are also shown

Ensemble of Simulations: coupled mesoscale and plume models -Warner

Probabilistic Interpretation of the Ensemble Output

Probability of dosage exceeding a threshold

Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events

• Plume models driven by Mesoscale Models• Mesoscale models: highly volatile sensitive to

quality of initial data• Above results in a wide spectrum of results in

short time period– stable predicted as unstable and vice versa– convective weather lines moving too fast or

too slow– moisture regions geographically misplaced

and intensity wrong by factor of two or more

• Current upper air data (radiosonde system)– 350 km average horizontal resolution– two/day (12-hour) temporal resolution– Large errors in system movement due to

advection uncertainty– Very large error if systems developing

dissipating• No mesoscale data

poor mesoscale model outputpoor plume model inputpoor plume model guidancepotential large loss of life -needlessly

Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events (continued)

Stable Unstable

Strong Winds

Weak Winds

less intense

more area affected

more intense

less area affected

least intense

least area affected (locally)

Impact of Atmospheric Stability on Contaminant Plumes

Fleming paper: “National Observing System…” at

Sensors, and Command, Control, Communication, and Intelligence (C3I) Technologies for Homeland Defense and Law Enforcement II part of SPIE’s (International Society for Optical Engineering) Aerosense 2003 21-25 April 2003, Orlando FL.

Strategic(1) Mesoscale upper air (V,T,q) – commercial a/c(2) Ground based Doppler wind profilers – major seaports(3) b.l. winds via scatterometers (coasts, Gulf of Mexico, Great Lakes)

Tactical(1) Aerial Mobile (special manned a/c, UAVs (sophisticated, simple)

- remotely sensed Doppler Lidar winds, DIAL water vapor profiles

- in-situ (V,T,q) and species identification and concentration(2) Ground Mobile (special trucks/vans and all-terrain Hummers)

- in-situ (V,T,q) and species identification and concentration

my topics (black and blue)Lidar Proposal (blue)

National Strategic Observing System:

- Serves entire country prior to an NBC event.

- Provides 4-D mesoscale input as most powerful information source at location and time of NBC terrorist event

- Allows time (2-4 hours) for Tactical Observing System to be brought into ground zero

- Further supports Tactical System in determining radioactive fallout in case of nuclear event (near-surround vs. far-surround)

• Commercial A/C measure winds and temp (lat, long, and time available)

• Water vapor measurements proven in 1999-2000 (WVSS-I)

• Very accurate water vapor measurements with WVSS-II. Uses diode laser, UCAR air sampler (patent pending), and differential frequency modulation spectroscopy– Air sampler is flush mounted, drag-free, stealthy, optimized for

diode lasers and quantum cascade lasers, works on anything that moves

• Commercial A/C vertical profile of winds, temp, and water vapor costs $1.10 each vs. radiosonde recurring cost of $250 each

Tactical Observing System:(staged throughout country serving dual benefits – one is NBC terrorism event)

- Consists of a variety of systems: function of (nuclear, biological, or chemical)

- Includes existing satellite systems and systems brought in by first responders

- Measures 4-D area around ground zero and near-surround

- Consists of highly mobile systems (aerial and ground-based)

- Measures environment and contaminated plume (composition, strength, 4-D movement, trends)

Ground Mobile Systems

- trucks/vans

- all-terrain Hummers

- fast moving choreographed array for environmental data

- optimally positioned array for species identification, concentration and trends

Aerial Mobile Observational Platforms:

Special Manned Aircraft

- Some existing government a/c

- Some existing university and government research a/c

- Some existing older commercial a/c suitable for purpose

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)

- Range from GNAT (48 hr endurance and 140 lb payload) to GlobalHawk (42 hr endurance and 1960 lb payload)

- Smaller, simpler, in-situ data and plume info only

Special Manned Aircraft (Medium to low flight levels)

- In-situ data

- Doppler wind lidar profiles

- DIAL water vapor profiles

- UAVs

- Sophisticated, existing (expensive) – same as above

- New (relatively inexpensive) – in-situ data, other (?)

Future Actions

• Complete Proposal

Major Issues

-What technology for what aerial vehicles?

- This proposal calls for end-to-end delivery of mesoscale information (a significant advantage) – how, when is industry solution brought in?

Minor issues

- Add missing text; cut down on some

- Add references

• Add budget appendix