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Adjustment of China Energy Strategic under the constraint of energy saving and carbon emission
Yao Xin July 2010
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
I. China energy strategy ： Follow the rules of international economic devel
opment and energy consumption
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The dual concerns of energy supply and demand
The global economic crisis
A relative surplus of energy production
The future relative shortage of energy
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Resource endowment and economic development can impact energy consumption
economic develop
ment
Resource endowment
Characteristics of
energy demand
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Energy demand reduced every stage
Energy consumption is the rigid
The process of industrialization was shorten
The urbanization and industrialization were proceeding at the same time
Basic rules of international energy consumption
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
China's energy consumption must follow the basic law
The high-energy-consumption products for urbanization only can be produced domestic, because of the population
Urban
izatio
n canl
not be
interr
upted
Maintai
n the
econom
ic
growth
energy d
emand
will gro
wth
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
China's energy strategy
A national energy strategy, is essential for China. An active energy policy can effectively promote energy efficiency and ensure energy security.
China currently has no energy strategy in fact.We need to learn from the experience and lessons of developed countries.We will establish China's long-term energy stratery based on the full understanding of China's energy problems.
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
II ． Environmental constraints in China
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Current situation of global greenhouse gas emissions
Economic crisis has affected the progress of reduction
McGuire"Seven Years to Save the Planet"
Low conventional energy prices will weaken the investment in renewable energy. In fact, a large number of environmental projects have been canceled in the crisis.
If greenhouse gases in the 7 years can not be controlled, the Earth will be irreversible into a vicious cycle in 2015.
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Current situation of global greenhouse gas emissions
The problem is ：
Do we have enough time?
What is the key to solving the problem ？
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Developed countries should help developing countries reduce emissions
Emissions need to be invested. Developed Countries, not only from the economic and technological strength, but also from the history and fairness, should take on more responsibility to reduce emissions.
Developing countries must participate in global emissions reductions
Developed countryFinancial and technical
Developing country
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Environmental attitudes in developed countries
“I do, I try to help you”
“I do, you must do”
“I do, you try to do”
Developed countries must change their attitude
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
China's environmental strategy
Emission reduction strategies For the energy and environment fair
Developing countries can not fully rely on the help of the developed countries
Developing countries have plenty room for emission reduction in the development process
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
III. Adjustment of China Energy Strategic under the constraint of energy sa
ving and carbon emission
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
How to achieve sustainable development
China's economic transforma
tion
energy scarcity
demand increase
Environmental degradation
The most challenging problems of China in this century are the future energy and environmental issues, not the current financial crisiss.
Unlike developed countries, China's economic development have more environmental constraints.
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The low carbon economy transition under energy and environmental constraints
China's low-carbon economy transition
Energy conservation and the development of cle
an energy
Explore and practice low-carbon eco
nomy
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
Combined with demand side management to meet the energy demand
Carbon dioxide emissions as a new constraint on energy strategy
The power industry must comply with the overall strategy
Energy security as a part of sustainable economic development
Adjustment of Energy Strategy
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Combined with demand side management to meet the energy demand
energy demand=energy savings + energy supply
We combine the demand side management to consider how to satisfy the energy demand, rather than simply based on the energy supply.
The government can select either supply or saving investment to minimize the cost of energy demand.
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Carbon dioxide emissions as a new constraint
We can get the optimal energy consumption structure, which is the combination of each kind of the primary energy,considering of the emission constraint
We change the single constraint to energy growth and energy structure strategy planning, taking CO2 emission into account to
satisfy the energy demand.
Such as ： CO2 Emission= 9 Bton
After considering the affordable capacity of social economy, we can determine an acceptable energy structure, and further find an optimal combination of primary energy consumption under the specific constraint of carbon dioxide emission.
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Energy diversification Change the only consideration of strategic petroleum r
eserve, think energy diversification as a part of energy security.
energy security= strategic petroleum reserve + energy diversification
Development of new energy will protect China's energy security, diversify energy supply, reduce China's dependence on other country's oil, in order to ensure the future competitiveness of the Chinese economy.
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
Consider the energy conservation factor to determine the optimal energy supply
The optimal objective is to choose a combination of supply and saving with minimized investment costs to satisfy the energy demand.
China's energy conservation supply curve
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
According to the optimal energy supply and emission constraints ，we get the optimal energy structure
2020 年电力装机结构
（Million t
ons）Coal
（ % ）Oil
（ % ）Gas
（ % ）
Hyd
ro
（ % ）
Nucl
ear （
% ）
Win
d
（ % ）
Sola
r and th
e other
（ % ）
94.7 （ No
planning ）68.
7
14.
25.5 8.0 2.2 0.8 0.6
90 （ Comp
letion of the pla
nning ）
60.
5
17.
36.2 9.2 3.6 1.7 1.5
8859.
3
17.
36.2
10.
13.9 1.7 1.5
8453.
2
17.
3
10.
0
10.
15.4 2.5 1.5
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
According to the energy structures and their energy costs, we analyzed the macro-economy influence by establishing the CGE of China energy and environment, and then investigated the acceptable energy structure.
The macroeconomic impact of emission constraints in2020
Emission （ Million tons） GDP(%) Employment
(%)energy consumption per unit of GDP(%)
94.7 1.73 1.37 4.32
88 0.05 0.02 -0.63
84 -0.21 -0.35 -3.31
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
Thank you!
