Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
The Energy Information
Administration’s Outlook of Energy
Supply and Demand
The Future of Fuel: Toward the Next Decade of U.S. Energy Policy
Resources For the Future
November 28, 2012 | Washington, DC
Michael Schaal
Director, Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis
What’s included in EIA’s
Reference Case?
2 Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
• Generally assumes current laws
and regulations
• Some grey areas regarding
potential legislation
• Includes technologies that are
commercial or reasonably expected
to become commercial
• Assumptions to the AEO are also
available at
eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions
Energy use grows slowly over the projection in response to a slow
and extended economic recovery and improving energy efficiency
3
U.S. primary energy consumption
quadrillion Btu per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
History Projections 2010
37%
25%
21%
9%
7%
1%
32%
26%
20%
11%
9%
4%
Shares of total U.S. energy
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Liquid biofuels
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
(excluding liquid biofuels)
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline;
per-capita energy use also declines
4
index, 2005=1
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Per dollar
Per capita
CO2 per GDP
History Projections 2010
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
2%
Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production
sources
5
U.S. dry gas production
trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Non-associated offshore
Projections History
Associated with oil
Coalbed methane
Non-associated onshore
Shale gas
2010
10%
6%
9%
7%
21%
23%
9%
9%
6%
49%
Alaska 1%
Tight gas 26%
22%
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
U.S. imports of liquid fuels continue to decline due to increased
production of gas liquids and biofuels and greater fuel efficiency
6
U.S. liquid fuels supply
million barrels per day
Projections History
Natural gas plant liquids
Petroleum production
Biofuels including imports
Net petroleum imports
15%
12%
36%
36%
10%
49%
36%
5%
Liquids from coal 1%
Energy Information Administration
AEO2012, June 2012
2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
While total electricity generation grows by 21% over the
projection, the annual rate of growth slows
7
percent growth (3-year rolling average)
Projections
History
Period Annual Growth
1950s 9.8
1960s 7.3
1970s 4.7
1980s 2.9
1990s 2.4
2000-2010 1.0
2010-2035 0.8
2010
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
18%
15%
Electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by
growth in renewables and natural gas
8
electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
2010
24%
20%
45%
10%
1%
38%
28%
1%
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Non-hydro renewable sources more than double between 2010
and 2035
9
non-hydropower renewable generation
billion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Geothermal Waste
Industrial CHP
Power sector
Advanced biofuels
cogeneration
2010
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
10 Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Assuming no new policies, energy-related CO2 grows by 2%
through 2035
2% growth
Transportation
1,876 (33%)
Buildings and
Industrial
1,492 (26%) Electric Power
2,271 (40%)
2010
5,639 million metric tons
2035
5,728 million metric tons
Transportation
1,871 (33%)
Buildings and
Industrial
1,527 (27%) Electric Power
2,330 (41%)
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012
For more information
11
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
EIA Information Center
Our average response time is within three
business days.
(202) 586-8800
24-hour automated information line about EIA
and frequently asked questions.
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Backup Slides
12 Energy Information Administration
AEO2012, June 2012
Policy Change Possibilities
13
• Greenhouse gas legislation
• Renewable fuels standards
• Production Tax Credit
• Appliance efficiency standards
• Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards
• Investment tax credits
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
AEO 2012 Scenarios
14
•Reference
•High and low economic growth (2)
•High and low oil price (2)
•Demand sector technology cases (2011, High, and Buildings Best Available) (3)
•Integrated high and low technology (applied to demand sectors; renewable; and electric power and
refinery sector fossil; and nuclear) (2)
•High and low coal cost (2)
•High and low estimated ultimate recovery cases and high technically recoverable resources (3)
•High and low nuclear (2)
•Low renewable cost (1)
Liquid Fuels Market Module (1)
•Policy related: Extended Policy, No Sunset, carbon dioxide allowance fee ($15 and $25), and 5-year
investment recovery with reference and with low natural gas prices (7)
•Proposed light-duty vehicle CAFE standards; advanced battery technology; heavy-duty truck natural
gas potential (3)
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
U.S. dependence on imported petroleum continues to decline
15
U.S. liquid fuel supply
million barrels per day
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net petroleum imports 49%
36%
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
60%
2005
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
16
miles per gallon
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
2010 Projections History
Summary of standards
2012-2016: 34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSA vehicle footprint sales distribution)
2020: 35 mpg by statute
2017-2025: Reference case does not include proposed rulemaking from December 2011
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
New light duty vehicle fuel economy reaches almost 38 mpg by 2035
in the Reference case, which does not include proposed standards for
MY2017 to MY2025 vehicles
Gasoline-only vehicles without hybrid technologies decline as a
share of new vehicle sales
17
U.S. light car and truck sales
millions
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic
production – including biofuels – and greater efficiency
18
U.S. liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
2010 Low High High Low High High
EUR TRR
2025 2035
49%
5%
36%
10%
Natural gas plant liquids
Other non- petroleum
petroleum supply
Biofuels
Net petroleum imports
Domestic
including imports
EUR EUR TRR EUR supply Reference Reference
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2022 2035
Other Advanced
Biofuels grow, but fall short of RFS target in
2022, exceed it in 2035 billions ethanol-equivalent gallons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Legislated RFS in 2022 Biodiesel
Net imports
Cellulosic biofuels
Corn ethanol
19
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other
shale formations in the U.S.
20
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown
dramatically over the past few years
21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Eagle Ford
Bakken
Granite Wash
Bone Spring
Monterey
Woodford
Niobrara
Spraberry
Austin Chalk
tight oil production for select plays
million barrels of oil per day
Sources shale gas: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of September 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
Source tight oil: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through June 2012.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rest of US
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Haynesville
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Antrim
shale gas production (dry)
billion cubic feet per day
Michael Schaal
3rd Annual Bakken Summit, Denver, CO , October 24th, 2012
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption
22
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. dry gas
trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Technically recoverable dry gas resources
23
U.S. dry gas resources
trillion cubic feet
*Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in
previously published documentation.
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2,203
273
482
1,449
AEO Edition
Unproved Shale Gas
Unproved Other Gas (including Alaska* and offshore)
Proved Reserves (all types and locations)
Cumulative Production Since 2000
Michael Schaal
RFF, Washington, D.C., November 28, 2012
Levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding
subsidies, 2020 and 2035
Adam Sieminski
AEO2012 24
costs for new U.S. electricity power plants
2010 cents per kilowatthour
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
2035
2020