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Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa
Adrian Stone Energy Research Centre 31st July 2012
Transport Sector Model 2
IntroductionWork Commissioned by SANEDI
SA Transport sector 28% of TFC. The Bulk (97%) is liquid fuels. This is 84% of national
liquid fuel demand. (DoE, 2009) (IEA, 2011).
Medium to long term (2050) future trends in demand for passenger transportation - different scenarios
Medium to long term future trends in demand for freight transportation - different scenarios.
Resulting demand for energy in scenarios.CO2 emissions associated with each of the scenarios?
Transport Sector Model 3
Systems Dynamics Considerations
VP Model OutputCalibrated to Sales
VP Model Output
Source: Armenia, Baldoni, Falsini, & Taibi, 2010
Transport Sector Model 4
Multi-Model Solution
Future Year Time Budget
Model
Projected P-km
Mode-share
WIDER CGE Model
Projected Income of Household Deciles
2005 - 2030
ANSWER TIMES Model
Energy Demand
Baseline P-km, T-km/
Mode-share
Calibrated Vehicle
Parc Model
3 Income Groups:• Average km/h• Public/private split
Base Year Time Budget
Model
Future FE
Assump.
Transport Sector Model 5
Baseline – The Vehicle Parc Model
Vehicle ParcModel
Vehicle km
FuelConsumption
P-km, T-km/Mode-share
ScrappingFactor
VehicleMileage/Decay
Fuel Economy/Improvement
Occupancy
NAAMSAVehicle Sales
Enatis Check
SAPIA/EBCheck
Natmap/SOLCheck
Transport Sector Model 6
Mileage Decay Still a Guess
Transport Sector Model 7
TBM – The Gospel According to Victor & Schafer
Transport Sector Model 8
TBM – Simple Principle
PKM = Total Passenger.km per yearFij = Fraction in motion on mode j by income group i. Sj = Average Speed of mode jTi = Travel Time Budget per person per year for income group iNij = Number of people in income group i using mode j
Transport Sector Model 9
TBM – Salient Assumptions
VariableTraveller Group
Low Income
Middle Income
High Income
1. All Modes
Ti (hours/day/person) 1.1 1.1 1.1
2. Public - No Access to CarFraction of Budget Fij 58% 58% 58%Average Speed Sj (km/h)
20 20 20
3. Public - Access to CarFraction of Budget Fij 44% 28% 6%Average Speed Sj (km/h)
20 20 20
4. PrivateAnnual HH Income Perc. 50% 30% 20%
Car Ownership/Access 7% 23% 78%Fraction of Budget Fij 25% 52% 89%Average Speed Sj (km/h)
34 34 34
Transport Sector Model 10
TBM – Refinements
• TBM balances Vehicle Parc Model but Average Speeds seem v. low
• Even after adjusting mileage & occupancy in the VPM
• Philip G. measured 41 km/h in Jhb in extensive study
• Maybe giving way slightly on 1.1 hour justified
Transport Sector Model 11
Freight Model – Balances Fuel but Poor Agreement with the SOL
ERC (UCT) State of Logistics (CSIR/US)
Vehicle Type
VPM Freight Utilisation
(2006)
SOL Freight Utilisation
(2006)Freight Type
(billion ton.km) (billion ton.km)
LCV 14 58 Metropolitan
MCV 9 64 Rural
HCV 120 108 Corridor
TOTAL 144 230 TOTAL
Transport Sector Model 12
Some Results
