ADS 2030 High Level Description DS Discussion Approval

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks

Status High Level Description DS Discussion Approval

Date

PDWG Study

Plan Revisit Resources

Mapping,

Added\Retired,

consistent with L&R

report, submitted to

WECC in March 2020.

Fix ~ 400 over-loaded

transformers!

Build the 2030 ADS PCM dataset,

starting with the 2028 ADS PCM

Phase 2 – V2.0

Transmission Topology –WECC

2030 HS power flow case starting

with an export hour from the 2028

ADS PCM Phase 2 – V2.0

For resource definition, use

resources submitted to WECC

L&R, in March 2020

DS approved Sept 19, 2019

Coincident

Energy Shapes

Year

2009 For a coincident dispatch of the

Western Power System, the Production

Cost model (PCM)-ADS database has

to have hourly energy shapes from a

single year for loads, hydro, wind,

solar, EE, DG, etc.

DS approved using hourly profiles from year 2009.

Sept 19, 2019

Loads Work with Kevin on

implementing the CEC

Hourly Load Shapes in

California.

Develop hourly forecast from

forecasted monthly peak and energy as

follows:

Update using 2020 LAR submittal

to WECC.

DS approved

April 22,

2020

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Fix WAPA RM Loads,

PAID, IPEF, BCHA,

AESO

Model missing AAEE

Flex Reserves None in the posted case!

Nader to work to complete

by 7/15?

Energy Efficiency Included in loads—no additional

task.

Model missing AAEE for

CA!

Prior surveying of EE programs by

LBNL led to the discovery that all but

one LSE nets EE from their loads; IPC

develops their load forecast through an

econometric regression that implicitly

captures some future energy efficiency

program activity, but not all of it.

DS approved

April 22,

2020

Demand

Resources

No change from 2028 case Modify with values from 2020 L&R

submittal.

To be discussed April 22, 2020

Pending Approval

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Distributed Generation

BTM included from L&R submittals

Issue: accounting for

BTM in the Round-Trip

Export Hour

DG is also referenced as behind the

meter PV (BTM PV) – mostly large-

scale photovoltaic generation that

is connected behind an end-user

load meter. For California, use

behind-the-load meter generation

assumptions developed by the

CEC.

For other states model LAR Tier 1,

2 & 3 resources that reflects

respective legislated programs

(RPS, DG, EE, etc.)

DS approved

April 22,

2020

2030 ADS PCM

Resources Validate RPS shapes Build the 2030 ADS PCM dataset,

starting with the 2028 ADS PCM

Phase 2 – V2.0

Transmission Topology –WECC

2030 HS power flow case starting

with an export hour from the 2028

ADS PCM Phase 2 – V2.0

For resource definition, use

resources submitted to WECC L&R

in March 2020

DS approved Jan 13, 2020

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Managing Retired

Plant in PCM Based on 2020 L&R

submittal—Validate entries

in 2030 ADS PCM

PDWG continues to maintain Retired

units on parked bus (islanded bus)

No impact on power flow export

hour

No impact on PCM dispatch


Managing Unit

Assumptions. Revisit assumptions for:

Battery Storage

Wind/Solar Curtailment

Retirements that maybe

causing “Unserved

Energy”?

Spillage

Generators Distributed to

Load Area

When export to power

flow case, these units’ are

netted from load

There are about 20,422

MW load reduction due

Recommendation: add a new field in

PCM to track and populate “Model

Type”.

Benefit: when managing generic

assumption, generic data can be

looked up in a table (directly or

indirectly).

Example model type: GT F, CC F,

NDS CC


ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

to DG-BTM, DR, and

these units on the peak

hour

Station Service Needs testing. Issue with

accounting for non-

conforming loads in the

Export Hour, using the

Round-Trip

Round Trip on Import: PF→PCM

o Park/exclude SS load from

PCM run

o Create SS bus to generators

mapping

Round Trip on Export: PCM→PF’

o PF’ = PF for PCM Export

Hour

o Export SS load and set

status of load based on

work with vender to implement

logic Include logic to manage

many-to-one, one-to-many and or

many-to-many (SS to Gen)

condition


ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Plant Maintenance Revisit after fixing

resources mapping.

Problem

GridView currently uses a LOLP to

allocate maintenance

All Hydro and renewable supply is

considered 100% firm. This distorts

the resulting LOLP calc and

scheduled maintenance

o Maintenance scheduled

during the summer

o PNW maintenance in the

fall

Solution

Manually fixed scheduled

maintenance from GridView

CG has developed a tool to review

and adjusted maintenance.

Scheduled maintenance can be

reviewed by are or region

DS approved:

WECC staff to use

tool (workbook by

Kevin) to correct

for unreasonable

maintenance

patterns

April 22,

2020

Up/Down time Implement updated data by Intertek DS approved April 22,

2020

Ramp Rates Continue to use plant ramp rates from

the 2028 ADS PCM dataset with ramp

rates presented by Yi, PDWG Meeting

– Jan 9, 2018

DS approved April 22,

2020

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Plant Startup Costs Implement updated data by Intertek DS approved April 22,

2020

Pmin\Pmax PCM –Pmin/Pmax should not

exceed values in reference power

flow case”

PCM: SS values = 0

Round-trip: export hour, use SS

values from the reference power

flow case. This will require post

processing, using a spread sheet.”

Pending

Approval

Heat Rate Curves Kevin & Paul are

working on CCCTs.

At the January 13, 2020 meeting,

DS approved PDWG proposal to

partner with the CEC on updating

thermal plant Heat Rate Curves.

Reasons:

o Unit-specific heat rate curve

Data quality issues

may yield only a full

load HR

o Develop generic curve by

type: ST-Coal, ST-NG,

LMS100, etc.

Develop generic full

load heat rate by

generic type

Implement the

CEC update of

Heat Rate Curves

in the 2030 ADS

PCM dataset.

April 22,

2020

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Fuel Prices Update

1. Natural

Gas Prices

2. Coal Prices

3. Uranium

and other

fuel prices

Natural Gas Prices – implement

using the CEC annual burner tip

prices and the Northwest Power

Conservation Council’s (NPC)

monthly shapes.

Coal prices – developed by

Kevin Harris, ColumbiaGrid,

reviewed and discussed by

PDWG March 31, 2020

Other fuel Prices – Annual Energy

Outlook 2020 forecast, reviewed

and discussed by PDWG on March

31, 2020”

DS approved fuel

prices for the

2030 ADS PCM

dataset

April 22,

2020

Deflator \ Inflator

Rates Complete DS approves the use of CEC 2019

IEPR Implicit GDP Deflator by

Moody Analytics for data

development in the 2030 ADS PCM

database.

Qualification: CEC has a consent form

Moody Analytics for the use of its

deflator for ADS.


2020

Wheeling Rates No change “Wheeling Rates” cover utility tariffs, the

cost of transporting power over

transmission lines.

Pending

Approval

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Power Flow

Updates Should set to zero for negative

loads (DC ties, DG, EE, etc.) Negative Loads

Negative loads are treated as constant

injections in GridView

Phase Shifter

Settings

Suggest to set MW Limits as +/- Rate A MW Limits are updated by power flow

case, which cause significant congestions

Paths Ratings

Revisit non “PXX” interface

Dentitions

Incorrect modeling

imposes restriction on

flows

HVDC line modeling

WATL and EATL both have

1000 MW limits? (1000 MW,

140 MW)

Losses are set 3% at full capacity

with 100 piecewise linear

representation

Interface - update consistent with Path

Rating Catalog

Some interface not defined in Catalog has

some changes from 2028 ADS

Pending

Approval

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

TBC has 2% losses at full

capacity with 5 piecewise linear

representation

Nomogram

Definition Fix:

New Mexico

Intermountain

Add:

COI restrictions in

CA

Working with StS (Peter Makin) on

collecting updated Nomogram Definitions

Pending

Approval

Review Wind and

Solar Shapes Revisit after fixing

resources mapping

Updates were applied mid-year, 2017,

using the latest NREL shapes from year

2009. several edits are required:

1. Wind – fix plants with >50%

capacity factors

2. Confirm starting hour is consistent

for all hourly shapes

Pending

Approval

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Hydro Data Revisit Hydro modeling;

most hydro do not allow

curtailment nor banking!

BC Hydro caused

overloaded interfaces

PLF following Load –

Wind – Solar

HTC adjustment is

based on first cycle LMP

ranking

Suggest to use MIO

under Look Ahead

Logic

Use shapes from year 2009 for all

hydro in the Western Interconnect

with some exceptions; substitute

shapes from year 2008 (Jun-Aug)

for Core Columbia River 11

projects (Coulee to Bonneville).

This shifts net NW Hydro run-off

from Apr-May to May-Jun.

Fully implement GridView

capability to calculate hydro

modeling coefficients with

available data.


2020

ADS Ancillary

Services Updates

Operating Reserves

Only spinning is modeled!

No flex reserves in the case…

Short term – Use Flex Reserves

determined exogenously by PNNL

using MATLAB and 2020 L&R

data covering year 2030 resources.

Long term: use the GridView

algorithm, currently under

development by PNNL\ABB,

supported by DOE funding and


2020

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

scheduled for implementation in the

fall of 2020

Update Emission

Prices

1. CO2

Use current data

escalated to $2020.

Change year 2028 to

year 2030.

Use $44.30/metric ton CO2 (2018 dollars)

for California supply, in the 2028 ADS PCM

dataset. This is the mid-range price for

CO2, developed by the California Energy

Commission for IEPR 2017, for year 2028.

This results in unspecified import CO2 fee

to California of $18.96/MWh, as specified

in arb

Pending

Approval

Other Prices

1. RPS Dispatch

Costs:

Transmission &

Distribution

Connected

Solar, Wind

Resources, Bio

and Geo-

thermal

Resources

Revisit the impacts on

the dispatch due to

negative pricing in CA

Tier 1) -$25/MWh curtailment (GV uses

dispatch cost for curtailment cost) price

for grid connected renewable variable

resources wind and solar.

Tier 2) -$45/MWh curtailment\dispatch

cost for Federal Hydro Projects in the

Northwest

Bio and geothermal should be modeled as

dispatchable generators.

Pending

Approval

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Behind the Meter PV is not curtailable.

VOM costs for wind and solar is zero.”

BTM PV - - uncheck the spillage box in GV.

Data Development

and Validation

Manual (DDVM)

Use OneNote to document data and how

data is developed for the PCM that allows

for repeating the process into the future.

• OneNote has a robust search

engine that allows for isolating

topics within the references listed

above

• Stakeholders can use OneNote

information as a reference to

document the process in the

DDVM manual

DS Approved Sept 19, 2019

ADS 2030

PCM

Building

Blocks


Date

Validation of the

ADS 2028 PCM

Case Data and

Parameters.

Partner with the

Regions to review:

1. L&R

2. RPS

3. Generation

Dispatch

4. Path Flows

Initiate the Validation

Process

Pending

Approval

Potential additional resources

ABB: help with implementing thermal data (efficient, fast)

CES: Steven Wallace to help with mapping solar and wind resources?

Documents

ADS 2030 High Level Description DS Discussion Approval