/HWWHUV WR WKH (GLWRUV $GXOWRQVHW 6WLOO·V GLVHDVH VWLOO D ORQJ ZD\ WR JR &RPPHQW RQ WKH DUWLFOH ´$GXOWRQVHW 6WLOO·V GLVHDVH UHYLHZ RI FDVHVµ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Ơ DJHQWV SDU WLDOO\ SUHVHQWHG DW WKH $&5 PHHWLQJ LV DOVR FRUURERUDWHG E\ WKDW RI 5LHUD HW DO $QWL 71)Ơ PHGLFLQHV LQ IDFW PD\ EH KHOSIXO LQ FRQWUROOLQJ V\VWHPLF DQG DUWLFXODU V\PSWRPV RI UHIUDFWRU\ $26' 2XU GDWD KDYH VXJJHVW HG WKDW 71)Ơ EORFNDGH ZRXOG QRW EH DV HI IHFWLYH LQ VORZLQJ GRZQ WKH DUWLFXODU GDPDJH DV LQ LPSURYLQJ V\VWHPLF DQG RVWHRDUWLFXODU V\PSWRPV 7KLV OHDGV WR WKH DZDUHQHVV WKDW DQWL71)Ơ DJHQWV VKRXOG QRW EH D FRQFHLY DEOH ÀUVW OLQH WKHUDS\ LQ $26' 2ZLQJ WR D PRUH UHDVVXULQJ VDIHW\ SURÀOH DQG D PRUH WDU JHWHG DFWLRQ DV ZHOO DV PRUH HYLGHQFHEDVHG HIIHFWLYHQHVV ZH WKLQN WKDW LQWHUOHXNLQ UHFHSWRU DQWDJRQLVW DQDNLQUD FRXOG DFWXDOO\ EH FRQVLGHUHG D ÀUVW OLQH FKRLFH LQ $26' SDWLHQWV $OWKRXJK $26' KDV XVXDOO\ EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG D EHQLJQ GLVHDVH ZH WKLQN LW LV ZRUWK SRLQWLQJ RXW WKDW SDWLHQWV ZLWK WKH V\VWHPLF IRUP RI WKH GLVHDVH VKRXOG EH FORVHO\ PRQLWRUHG EHFDXVH RI WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI OLIHWKUHDWHQLQJ FRPSOL FDWLRQV WKDW FRXOG DOVR UHSUHVHQW WKH KHUDOG LQJ PDQLIHVWDWLRQ RI WKH GLVHDVH ,Q FRQFOXVLRQ ZH WKLQN WKDW D PXOWLFHQWUH VWXG\ DLPHG DW WKH LGHQWLÀFDWLRQ DQG YDOLGD WLRQ RI D VHW RI GLDJQRVWLF FULWHULD VKRXOG EH HQFRXUDJHG 7KHUH DUH FXUUHQWO\ VHYHUDO FODV VLÀFDWLRQ FULWHULD IRU $26' EXW WKRVH RI <DPDJXFKL DUH WKH PRVW XVHG +RZHYHU LW LV ZRUWK UHFDOOLQJ WKDW WKH ODWWHU DUH QRW VSHFL ÀHG LQ GHWDLO LQ SDUWLFXODU WKH H[FOXVLRQ FUL WHULD SURYLGH RQO\ JHQHUDO UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV DQG WKHUH LV QR SUHFLVH OLVW RI GLDJQRVHV RU VHW RI ODERUDWRU\ WHVWV WR EH SHUIRUPHG 7KH VHFRQG LPSRUWDQW OLPLWDWLRQ LV WKDW VHUXP IHU ULWLQ DQG LWV JO\FRV\ODWHG FRPSRQHQW DUH QRW LQFOXGHG DV LV LQ )DXWUHO·V SURSRVHG FULWHULD %HVLGHV <DPDJXFKL·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e $ 1$59$(= - HW DO $GXOW RQVHW 6WLOO GLVHDVH UHYLHZ RI FDVHV &OLQ ([S 5KHXPD WRO &2/,1$ 0 =8&&+,1, : &,$1&,2 * 25=,1&2/2 & 75277$ ) *2921, 0 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI DGXOW RQVHW 6WLOO GLVHDVH $Q REVHUYDWLRQDO DQG FRPSDUD WLYH VWXG\ LQ D FRKRUW RI ,WDOLDQ SDWLHQWV 6HPLQ $UWKULWLV 5KHXP /(48(55e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·V GLVHDVH FOLQLFDO DQG ODERUDWRU\ IHDWXUHV WUHDWPHQW DQG SURJUHVV RI FDVHV 4 - 0HG 0$6621 & /( /2Ê7 ; /,27e ) HW DO $GXOW 6WLOO·V GLVHDVH 3DUW ,, 0DQDJHPHQW RXWFRPH DQG SURJ QRVWLF IDFWRUV 5HY 5KXP (QJO (G 328&+27 - 6$03$/,6 -6 %($8'(7 ) HW DO $GXOW 6WLOO·V GLVHDVH PDQLIHVWDWLRQ GLVHDVH FRXUVH DQG RXWFRPH LQ SDWLHQWV 0HGLFLQH <$0$*8&+, 0 2+7$$ 7681(0$768 7 HW DO 3UHOLPLQDU\ FULWHULD IRU FODVVLÀFDWLRQ RI DGXOW 6WLOO·V GLVHDVH - 5KHXPDWRO )$875(/ % =,1* ( *2/0$5' -/ HW DO 3URSRVDO IRU D QHZ VHW RI FODVVLÀFDWLRQ FULWHULD IRU DGXORQVHW 6WLOO GLVHDVH 0HGLFLQH 7DEOH , 6HUXP IHUULWLQ OHYHOV DW WKH WLPH RI WKH GLDJQRVLV DQG PRQWKV ODWHU IRU FKURQLF V\VWHPLF DQG IRU FKURQLF DUWLFXODU FRXUVH LQ D ODUJH ,WDOLDQ FRKRUW SRO\F\FOLF SDWLHQWV FKURQLF DUWLFXODU SDWLHQWV DW WLPH RI GLDJQRVLV DIWHU PRQWKV DW WLPH RI GLDJQRVLV DIWHU PRQWKV )HUULWLQ PHDQ 6' &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO 5KHXPDWRORJ\
