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“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental

risks“

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ityII International Symposium on Desertificationand Migrations; 25-27 October Almeria/Spain

Migration Dynamics Generatedby Environmental Problems

Prof. Dr. Ing. Janos J. Bogardi&

Dr. Fabrice Renaud

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• Migration is a steady component of human history

• Land degradation started with agriculture, irrigation several thousand years ago.

… but things seem to become uncontrolled

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ityMillenium Ecosystem Assessment

• 15 of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or utilised in an unsustainable way, mainly by humans for the supply of specific services.

• This could accelerate the degradation of ecosystems - scientific evidence still required.

• The poor and especially rural poor are suffering most by the decline in ecosystem services.

• 2 billion people living in dry regions are extremely vulnerable to the loss of ecosystem services.

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ityEnvironmental Degradation

and Ecosystem Services

• 10 to 20 % of drylands are already degraded;• Pressure increases on dryland ecosystems

for providing food, water, livestock, irrigation, and sanitation;

• Climate change could increase water scarcity in regions already under water stress;

• Droughts are becoming more frequent and their continuous reoccurrence can overcome the coping mechanisms of communities.

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ityMigration:

a new look on an old problem

• 1994: “New thinking” of migrations originated at the International Conference on Population and Development.

• 2003: High-Level Dialogue on international migrations and development. The outcome: 1) maximise the development benefits of international migration; and 2) minimise its negative impacts.

• 2003: launch of Global Commission on International Migration • Global Migration Group contributes inputs to the Secretary

General’s report for the High-Level Dialogue.• 2004: International Labour Conference adopted a resolution

requesting the International Labour Office to implement a plan of action on migrant workers .

• 2005: establishment of a high-level inter-institutional group to ensure effective institutional response to international migration.

• 2006: Appointment of Special Representative on International Migration and Development.

• Proposal of a forum to offer Governments a venue to discuss international migration and development (High-Level Dialogue).

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Gap in Per Capita Income

Richest PoorestCountries Countries

1960 30 : 1

1990 60 : 1

2000 80 : 1

The Widening Income Gap: Pull and Push

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Life Expectancy

Richest PoorestCountries Countries

1998 78 45

Japan Malawi2002 81 40

The Widening Gap: Life Expectancy

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ityTracing the Tracks:

• Where are the migrants coming from?

• Where are they going?

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ityGlobal Net Primary Productivity

(1982-1993)

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ityGlobal Variation in

Net Primary Productivity (1982 - 1993)

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ityGlobal Desertification Vulnerability

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ityHunger Map

Source: World Food Programme

Category 1 2 3 4 5

Undernourished ≥ 35% 20-34% 5-19% 2.5-4% ≤2.5%_ No data Incomplete data

Description Very high Moderately high

Moderately low

Very low Extremely low

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ityWorld Population and CO2- Emissions per Resident

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ityComparison of Infant Mortality and GNP Per Person

in Drylands and Other MA Systems in Asia

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Target zones of international migration

The “guiding lights”

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ityGross National Product and Income

Rate per Resident

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ityAnnual Migration Flows

(Estimates from 1994 / the arrows indicate flows above 100,000 people only)

Source: Lutz (1994a)

NorthAmerica

+2000Western Europe

+1000

EasternEurope

+1000

China

-470

SouthAmerica

-260

Sub-SaharianAfrica

-510

CentralAmerica

-650

220

150

550

115

275NorthAfrica

-475

275SouthernAsia

-835

150

300

South-EastAsia

-1135

290

150

550

Japan and Australia

+350

135

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ityProposed Categories of Environmental Migrants

• Environmentally motivated migration;

• Environmentally forced migration; and

• Environmental refugees (including disaster refugees).

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ityThe five-pronged Approach

• Science: “Proper” definitions of environmentally motivated and/or forced migrations, environmental migrant/refugee; and programmesfor a better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms between degradation of ecosystems and social systems

• Awareness: Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness.

• Legislation: recognition of environmental migrants like in a convention or in parts of intergovernmental environmental treaties.

• Humanitarian: empower relevant entities to provide aid to environmental refugees.

• Political: devise concepts and put in place institutions that are able to assist the flux of forced environmental migrants.

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ityThe “dry world”

• Dryland / desertcultures

• Common challenges

• Diversity of traditional and local practices

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Thank You

Leaving Your Culture Behind