Aeronautica Militare - Difesa · Aeronautica Militare PIU’ ASSERTIVO ... Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Overall Gov't Reach, ... Aeronautica Militare

Aeronautica Militare

ESPERIENZA AFGHANA

GENERALITA’

CONCLUSIONI


OBIETTIVI

PROBLEMIRELAZIONI

PROCESSO


PIU’ ASSERTIVO

PIU’ CONSENSUALE

ACCOMODARESCHIVARE

COMPROMESSO

COLLABORAZIONECOMPETIZIONE


INDIVIDUO A

INDIVIDUO B

0 %100 %

100 %

(Lose/Lose)

(Lose/Win)

(Win/Lose)

(Win/Win)

Linea Neutrale del compromesso

Linea del compromesso via conflitto

Linea del compromesso via consenso


L’ Iceberg P-I-N

Necessità e paure

Interessi e valori

Posizioni

TerrenoComune per

costruire


Incertezze

Ostilità

PauraConflitto



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Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics Population/Popular SupportInfrastructure, Economy, & ServicesGovernmentAfghanistan Security ForcesInsurgentsCrime and NarcoticsCoalition Forces & ActionsPhysical Environment

Neutral/OnPopulation

Ins. StrategicCommun/IO

& Affiliation w/Population

Gov'tWorkforce

Skill & Avail

CoalitionDev.Ops-

Infrastructure,Services,

Econ.Advisory

& Aid

ANSFAppropriateUse of Force

Relative WOMMessage

AmplificationGov’t vs Ins

CoalitionAvg COINExperience

& Skill

Gov'tProfessionalismPolicy Quality

& Fairness

CoalitionStrategic

Commun./IO

Private SectorWorkforce

Skill & Avail

Likelihood of

for Payment

Ties toNarcotics &

Other CriminalFunding

InsurgentCapacity,

Priorities &Effectiveness

Strength ofReligious

Ideology &Tribal

Structures

Gov'tIntegration ofLocal TribalStructures

Gov't TrainingMentoring,Vetting, and

Hiring

Overall Gov'tReach,

ExecutionCapacity &Investment

Breadth ofCoalition &

Support

ResourceLevels

(Mil. & Civ.Forces,

Aid Levels)

CoalitionAdjustmentof Approachto Fit Afghan

CoalitionKnowledge& Underst.

of SocialStructures

Coalition‘COIN

Support’Strategy &

Unity

Recognition/Engagement to

IntegrateTribal

Structures&Beliefs

ProvideHumanitarian

Relief

Infr, Services, Econ.Policy & Execution/Perceived Fairness

InfrastructureDev. Adequacy& Sustainment

Legit EconomicActivity,Trade &

Employment

CivilianServices(SWET,

Healthcare,Education)

Private SectorCapital Mgmt., Investment &

Spending

Expectationsfor Security,Services, &Employment

Perception ofInsurgentStrength &

Intent

WesternAffiliationBacklash Perception of

Coalition Intent& Commitment

RelativeMessage

Impact Gov’tvs Ins

Fear of Ins.Attack/

Repercussions

Legit vs. IllegitRelative

EconomicOpportunity

PopulationBasic Needs

Service Levels& Employment

Fraction ofWorkforceAnd Agric.Legit vsIllegit

Illegit AgricProduction,

Trade &Employment

Narcotics& Criminal

ActivityLevels

InsurgentRecruiting,Retention,Manpower

& ISR

Counter- Narcotics/Crime Ops

Ins.Leadership,

Training, Skill& Experience

Ins. ProvisionOf Gov’t &Services

Ins.Offensives &

Presence(Clear & Hold)

Fear ofGov’ t/ANSF/

CoalitionRepercussions

Ins. Damages& Casualties

Gov't/ANSFStrategicCommun/

IO

PerceivedDamages &Use of Force

by Ins.

RelativeMessageQuality

Gov’ ’t vs Ins.Coalition/HomelandAcceptance of

Afghan Methods

Gov'tSecurityPolicy

Quality &Investment

R.O.L. Policy,Execution &PerceivedFairnessANSF

FundingAdequacy

CoalitionDev. Ops-

ANSFAdvisory

& Aid

ANSFInstitutional &

ExecutionCapacity

ANSFTraining &Mentoring

ANSF Avg.ProfessionalismSkill, Discipline,

& Morale

ANSFManpower

Recruiting &Retention

ANSF UnitLeadership& TacticalCapacity

TotalSecurityForce

Capacity &Focus

ISR / OpenSource Ops

CoalitionDev. Ops-

Gov’tAdvisory

& Aid

ANSFCorruption &

TribalFavoritism

ANSFCapacity,

Priorities & Effectiveness

ANSF &CoalitionDamages/Casualties

PopulationActively

SupportingGov’ t & SF

Sympathizingw/ Gov’t

the FencePopulation

Sympathizingw/ Insurgents

PopulationActively

SupportingInsurgency

Ethnic/TribalRivalry

CoalitionExecutionCapacity &Priorities

TerrainHarshness& Breadth

Duration ofOperation

US DomesticPerceived

Cost/Benefit& Support

CoalitionVisibility toPopulation

US Domestic/Int'l Strategic

Commun.& Diplomacy

US Gov'tSupport forOperation

CoalitionAppropriateBalance of

Effort &Force

Gov'tFunding

Adequacy

Central Gov'tInstitutional &

ExecutionCapacity

Gov't/Contractor

Corruption &Tribal Favoritism

TaxRevenues

OutsideSupport/

Enablementof Ins.

Policing &Security Ops

(Hold)

TargetedStrikes

CoordinationAmong Ins.

FactionsInsurgentTerrain

Advantage

PerceivedDamages/Use

of Force byGov’ t & Coalition

PerceivedSecurity

AverageConnectednessof Population

PotentialAttractiveness

of Gov’t vs.Insurgent Path

Visible GainsIn Security,Services &

Employment

Satisfactionw/ Gains in

Security, Services& Employment

PerceptionOf Gov’tStrength& Intent

Ability toReconcileReligiousIdeology,

TribalStructuresw/ Gov’t

Path

Ins. TargetedAttacks onProgress/Supportfor Gov’t

Criminal/TraffickingCapability &

Coercion

Legit AgricProduction

Ability toMove

People& GoodsRapidly

Legit OtherProduction& ServicesNon-Agric

Transparencyof Gov’t

Processes &Investments

MediaSensationalism

BiasCultural Erosion/

Displacement

Durationof

Operation

Sweep Ops(Clear)

RelativePopularSupport/ /ToleranceGov’t vs

Insurgents

Funding &Material

Support to Insurgents

Territory NotUnder Gov’t

Control (Afghan & Pakistan)

Havens / Ability to Operate

Significant Delay=

Significant Delay=

Crime/Violence /Ins. Support

POPULARSUPPORT

INSURGENTS

INFRASTRUCTURE,SERVICES &ECONOMY

NARCOTICS

POPULATIONCONDITIONS& BELIEFS

COALITIONDOMESTICSUPPORT

ANSFTACTICAL

TRIBALGOVERNANCE

OVERALLGOVERNMENTCAPACITY

ANSFINSTITUTIONAL

COALITIONCAPACITY &PRIORITIES

OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO INSURGENTFACTIONS

CENTRAL GOV’T


• Fattori fuori controllo Coalizione:- caratteristiche strutturali interne- convergenze interessi geo-strategici regionali

• Correlazione war/post• Planning integrato• Fattore sicurezza• Multinazionalità sforzi• Reconstruction già in fase combat


• Condivisione obj - unitarietà d’ intenti• Strategia mediatica & Info Campaign• Discriminazione obj c/insurrezionali• Uso della forza• Intelligence culturale• Risorse locali• Concomitanza op. mil. diversa natura


• Capire come la cultura locale si rapporta con la gerarchia

• Capire se la cultura locale privilegia le decisioni individuali o collegiali

• Capire come la cultura prevalentemente gestisce le situazioni d’ansia o incertezza


• Capire se la cultura locale predilige le soluzioni immediate o quelle a più lungo termine

• Capire gli stili di comunicazione locali

• Capire se è preferito un’approccio diretto oppure indiretto, di circostanza


• Capire come la cultura locale vede il problemsolving:

1. preservare le relazioni2. ottenere guadagni materiali, potere3. preservare la coesione del gruppo


• Capire come la cultura locale vede il decisionmaking:

1. decide l’individuo singolo?2. é un individuo titolato a decidere?3. decidono organi collegiali?


• Capire come la cultura locale approccia i task:1. abbiamo le stesse priorità?2. diamo lo stesso peso e valore alle problematiche?3. la motivazione e l’efficienza sono le stesse?


• Capire che cosa si aspetta la cultura locale:1. abbiamo le stesse aspettative?2. è meglio esplicitarle?3. la negoziazione è vista come segnale di possibile

accordo o solo come amabile discussione?


• Avere un piano dall’inizio• Mantenere sempre una percentuale

d’incertezza nell’interlocutore• Sviluppare capacità locali• Costruire su negoziazioni successive• Valutare frequentemente gli

sviluppi/risultati• Rimanere ingaggiati con rispetto

dell’interlocutore• Essere credibili


Documents

Aeronautica Militare - Difesa · Aeronautica Militare PIU’ ASSERTIVO ... Gov't Training Mentoring, Vetting, and Hiring Overall Gov't Reach, ... Aeronautica Militare