Aerospace - Oxford Economics · Aerospace 2 Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 Forecast overview Weaker-than-expected start to 2013… Dragged down by adverse developments in

1

Highlights Growth pick-up likely after first-quarter stall

Fundamental support for rapid growth in aerospace

production remains in place – airlines are awaiting

delivery of already-ordered, more fuel-efficient planes;

demand for air travel is likely to continue expanding

rapidly as the number of middle-class households

increases in emerging countries, thereby driving

additional orders; and a gradual easing in the recession

should buoy further business and leisure travel demand

across the developed world.

However, Boeing’s well-publicised battery problem with

its 787 Dreamliner was clearly a factor behind the first-

quarter stall in aerospace production globally (the US

accounts for half of global output), although European

output was generally strong on the back of Airbus order

fulfilment. With Boeing playing catch-up through the

rest of 2013 and into 2014, the forecast profile is now

more “V-shaped”, with global aerospace output in 2013

as a whole now seen rising by just under 3% ahead of

11% growth next year.

Forecast risks have shifted to the downside, as delivery

momentum may prove harder than expected to rebuild.

Aerospace: Industry Briefing

China4%

Russia6%

India0%

Brazil2%

Japan1%

US48%

Spain1%

UK10%

Italy2%

France4%

Germany7%

EU-EE1%

Other14%

Aerospace: Value added in 2012 (US$ 2005 prices)

Source: Oxford Economics

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Developed

BRICs

Eastern Europe


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

World

2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022

Germany 4.5 8.3 13.0 11.0 5.4 2.9 2.1 2.0France 2.7 5.0 2.6 7.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 2.1Italy 2.5 4.6 5.3 7.3 8.3 5.1 2.1 1.7UK 3.6 9.0 7.2 8.8 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.9Spain 1.5 -3.5 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.0

EU15 3.1 6.1 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.4

United States 2.2 8.2 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1 4.6Japan 3.5 -23.0 -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2 1.5

Developed countries 2.3 6.8 4.0 11.0 5.5 4.1 4.2 3.9

Eastern Europe (EU12) 7.9 9.8 7.4 4.9 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.3

Brazil 15.4 17.6 5.2 6.7 6.4 5.3 4.7 4.6Russia 6.9 3.0 -13.9 29.8 9.2 7.6 7.7 6.4India 13.9 0.2 4.7 11.8 10.8 9.0 7.4 5.9China 19.0 12.1 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 7.1

BRICs 11.1 8.1 -3.6 17.1 8.0 7.1 7.1 6.3

Emerging Markets 8.9 7.4 -2.1 12.9 7.3 6.5 6.3 5.7

World 3.3 6.9 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6 4.3

AerospaceAnnual percentage changes

Note: Output is measured in value-added terms in 2005 prices, unless otherwise stated.

Aerospace

Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 2

Forecast overview Weaker-than-expected start to 2013…

Dragged down by adverse developments in the US,

global aerospace production stalled in the early months

of this year. Indeed, it declined by 3.2% in the first

quarter, to stand just 1.7% higher than a year ago – the

slowest pace of growth since the global recovery began

in 2010. Furthermore, US output data for April showed

further weakness, with the major contributory factor being

Boeing’s problem with the lithium-ion batteries on its 787

Dreamliner aircraft. Boeing’s Q1 results showed a 3%

annual revenue drop as the 787 halt could not be offset

by 737 and 777 deliveries. The fifty already-delivered

planes were grounded from January to late-April at least,

when a solution to the issue was approved and Boeing’s

maintenance teams around the world started to fit it and

thereby allow the planes to go back into service.

Deliveries of new aircraft are now also re-starting, with

Boeing now trying to catch up with scheduled order

fulfilments over the coming 12-18 months.

Such negative developments overshadowed other more

positive trends elsewhere. Airlines have continued to

place orders with both Airbus and Boeing. For example,

British Airways, Chinese airlines, Turkish Airlines,

Ryanair and Lion Air have all placed substantial orders

so far this year, adding to order books which were

already healthy. Driving such orders, prospects for airline

profitability this year have improved due to lower, if still

high, jet fuel prices; better revenues on the back of rising

passenger demand (especially from emerging markets)

and rebounding cargo traffic; and improving load factors.

As a result, IATA upgraded again in late-March its

forecast for global airline profits to US$10.6bn for 2013,

up from US$7.6bn last year.

In addition, production trends across Europe have

generally been stronger than in the US, as Airbus looks

to fulfil orders. Germany in particular posted a dynamic

performance through to March, while the underlying trend

for the UK aerospace sector is positive (albeit with some

month-to-month volatility). EADS, the parent company of

Airbus, posted increased first-quarter profits, with cash

flows projected to improve in the coming quarters as

more aircraft (notably A380s delayed by the rectification

of wing cracks) are delivered. Moreover, its A350

programme appears to be on course to deliver a new

wide-body plane to the Airbus portfolio, with test flights

likely this summer.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Developed

BRICs

Eastern Europe


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

World

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

EU15

Japan


Aerospace: Output growth

Forecast

US

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Aerospace

Ships, rolling stock etc.


World: Output growth by sub-sectors

Forecast

Aerospace

3

…producing a more “V-shaped” profile…

The net result of these recent developments is to

produce a more “V-shaped” profile for the global

aerospace industry, with production and deliveries

playing catch-up over the coming quarters to fulfil

orders already placed. Although the second quarter is

off to a slow start in the US, momentum is seen

rebuilding through the rest of this year and well into

2014. For 2013 as a whole, global growth is now

expected to be just under 3% for aerospace output –

down two percentage points on our February forecast –

but the expansion in 2014 is likely to be over 11%

given the near-term potential for nearly completed

aircraft to be delivered now recent safety issues have

been addressed. Overall, aerospace growth is still set

to be driven by civilian aircraft demand, with the

sequester in the US and pressure on other countries’

military procurement budgets dragging down the

military sub-sector.

…but still support for medium-term growth

Looking beyond the short term, aerospace remains

likely to be one of the world’s most dynamic industrial

sectors. On the supply side, with jet fuel prices unlikely

to fall much further and noise and other environmental

regulations tightening, airlines continue to look to

renew their fleets with quieter, more fuel-efficient

planes. Although the future use of lithium-ion batteries

is in doubt, new composite materials and better

designs are set to characterise the next generation of

aircraft. Indeed, further orders are already being added

to healthy order books at Boeing and Airbus in order to

benefit from the cost and operational advantages of the

latest planes.

Turning to demand for air travel, the on-going rise in

the number of middle-class households in emerging

countries is producing a surge in potential customers.

Although high-speed rail offers competition on some

routes, international leisure and business travel from

emerging countries to the sights and shops in

developed countries has great potential to expand

even further. Finally, although the developed world’s

macroeconomic recovery continues to disappoint, the

gradual easing in the recession should buoy additional

travel demand over the coming years, especially from

the still-dormant Eurozone. Tourism has recovered well

from the recession but there remains scope for further

gains in order to get back onto the earlier trend.

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Italy

UK Germany


Aerospace: Output

ForecastFrance

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

Slovak Republic

-100

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0

50

100

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Russia

Brazil

India


Aerospace: Output growth

Forecast

China

Aerospace


Forecast risks Despite the downgrade to growth prospects for this

year, it is still felt that the risks to the aerospace

forecast have shifted from being balanced to being

biased towards the downside. Solutions have been

found to recent safety issues but, even so, it may well

prove harder than expected to rebuild production

momentum in the near term (when already-delivered

aircraft are being adjusted). Furthermore, additional

teething problems cannot be ruled out as novel

materials and designs are increasingly used in

production and delivered to customers.

The impact of defence cutbacks on overall aerospace

production has so far been muted but this may reflect

the long procurement cycle for such equipment, with

budget funds earmarked many years ahead of delivery.

This slow-burning drag on sector growth may well

prove greater than expected, thereby curtailing

medium-term growth by more than is currently

envisaged.

On the upside, travel demand might grow even more

dynamically as household income levels in emerging

countries cross disposable income thresholds where

increased leisure spending becomes possible.

Where is aerospace production expanding fastest?

Where is aerospace production suffering the most?

Last year Next 5 yearsLithuania 59.9 Bahrain 20.5Slovakia 56.0 Korea 9.1

Korea 44.1 India 8.7Philippines 31.3 Estonia 8.5Romania 26.8 Hungary 8.4Chile 21.8 Ukraine 8.3Cyprus 20.7 Pakistan 8.1

Venezuela 18.3 Poland 7.7Brazil 17.6 China 7.3Vietnam 12.4 Russia 7.2

Aerospace - Top 10 fastest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)

Last year Next 5 yearsUruguay -29.8 Slovenia -4.5Bahrain -27.7 Cyprus -0.9

Greece -27.4 Philippines -0.4Slovenia -24.2 Belgium -0.1Japan -23.0 Egypt 0.0Saudi Arabia -17.9 Ireland 0.7Belgium -16.9 Latvia 0.8

Denmark -14.4 New Zealand 0.8Austria -10.4 Switzerland 1.0Estonia -9.6 Austria 1.0

Aerospace - Top 10 slowest growing countries(Annual percentage changes)

Aerospace

5

Risk Scenario analysis

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-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

World: Aerospace% y/y

Source : Oxford Economics

Shaky foundations for BRICs

Baseline

Forecast

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-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017


Eurozone tensions reach breaking point

Baseline

Forecast

Both civilian and military aerospace products have

quite long lead times (which can be over three years)

and, as such, are less vulnerable to short-term

changes in macroeconomic conditions. Governments

and airlines tend to take a strategic view when placing

such high-value orders, which they then tend to be

reluctant to postpone or cancel. This was evident in the

2008-09 downturn, which was both modest and short-

lived compared to other investment goods’ sectors.

This comparative resilience is evident when a shaking

of the foundations under the BRICs is considered. In

contrast to other industrial sectors, aerospace output

relative to baseline barely falls by more than GDP, as

manufacturers continue to fill existing orders (with few

of those either postponed or cancelled by airlines).

However, less buoyant conditions make it harder for

other aerospace firms to challenge the Boeing/Airbus

duopoly, with the Chinese aerospace industry in

particular showing slower growth as China’s

investment spending generally posts a more marked

and prolonged dip than in the baseline forecast.

Aerospace is most vulnerable to mounting Eurozone

tensions leading to exits. The resultant panic in

financial markets would curtail sharply business travel

demand and make the financing of aircraft purchases

extremely difficult. Airbus and also Boeing would be

likely to face order cancellations as airlines tried to stay

afloat as load factors decreased and existing fleets

were mothballed. Overall under this scenario, global

aerospace production would cumulatively be scaled

back by almost ten percentage points (relative to our

baseline forecast) over the five years to 2017.

Sitting between these two downside scenarios is the

case of central banks getting more than they

bargained for. Here, initial gains for aerospace this

year and in 2014 are more than offset by losses

thereafter, stemming especially from the problems

withdrawing QE causes financial markets. Holders of

government bonds (including banks) would suffer

significant capital losses as yields surged back from

current low levels, squeezing funds available for

aircraft purchases. Renewed advance economy

recessions could also trigger further military cutbacks,

as government borrowing surges again. -6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017



Central banks get more than they bargained for

Baseline

Forecast

Aerospace


To end on a brighter note, under the golden age scenario,

aerospace growth would be boosted by almost 3%pts

cumulatively. Boeing and Airbus would both benefit from

improved business and consumer confidence, driving

dynamic air travel demand. Additional use of innovative

materials and fuels could boost orders further as airlines

look to refresh fleets and thereby cut fuel, environmental

and regulatory costs. In addition, against this brighter

backdrop, it should be easier for other manufacturers to

establish and expand aerospace production facilities (e.g.

in China and the other BRICs), with Boeing and Airbus

more relaxed about emerging competitors given the rapid

growth in their own production.

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

World: Aerospace % y/y


The golden age

Baseline

Forecast

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017US

Baseline 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1Shaky foundations for BRICs 2.9 12.6 5.4 4.1 5.0Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 3.0 13.0 3.5 -0.5 2.7Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.4 14.7 5.4 0.8 2.2The golden age 3.2 14.2 7.2 5.1 4.9

EU15Baseline 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5Shaky foundations for BRICs 6.9 8.3 4.3 3.1 2.7Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 7.0 8.6 3.1 -0.9 -1.6Central banks get more than they bargained for 7.0 9.0 5.6 2.7 1.9The golden age 7.1 9.6 5.6 3.5 2.6

JapanBaseline -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2Shaky foundations for BRICs -7.2 5.3 3.2 2.8 3.5Eurozone tensions reach breaking point -7.1 6.2 0.0 -4.5 0.5Central banks get more than they bargained for -6.8 8.3 4.3 -0.1 0.0The golden age -6.9 8.1 5.7 3.5 2.4

ChinaBaseline 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4Shaky foundations for BRICs 8.0 5.2 5.2 6.1 6.3Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 8.2 6.4 3.9 2.3 4.0Central banks get more than they bargained for 8.4 6.3 3.8 3.2 4.4The golden age 8.5 8.0 8.1 8.1 7.1

WorldBaseline 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6Shaky foundations for BRICs 2.8 10.7 5.1 4.2 4.5Eurozone tensions reach breaking point 2.8 11.3 3.4 -0.2 1.8Central banks get more than they bargained for 3.1 12.6 5.8 1.9 2.5The golden age 3.1 12.6 7.0 5.1 4.5

Aerospace% change from a year earlier

Aerospace

7

2007-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022

Austria 8.9 -10.4 -12.2 10.2 5.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.07Belgium 0.6 -16.9 -9.4 4.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.49Denmark -15.6 -14.4 9.6 5.0 3.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 0.03Finland -14.5 7.7 -0.1 0.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 0.08France 2.7 5.0 2.6 7.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 2.1 6.89Germany 4.5 8.3 13.0 11.0 5.4 2.9 2.1 2.0 10.10Greece -7.0 -27.4 -9.0 7.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 5.2 0.23Ireland 3.2 -7.0 -15.9 9.1 3.6 3.9 4.7 5.9 0.03Italy 2.5 4.6 5.3 7.3 8.3 5.1 2.1 1.7 3.76Luxembourg -3.3 -2.7 -2.3 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 0.00Netherlands 6.1 6.9 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.37Portugal -2.1 -8.6 5.9 6.4 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.1 0.05Spain 1.5 -3.5 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 1.23Sweden -0.6 -4.9 -1.4 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.88UK 3.6 9.0 7.2 8.8 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 15.39EU15 3.1 6.1 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.4 39.59

Australia -3.0 10.8 -0.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.7 0.8Canada 0.2 2.9 0.4 5.8 6.5 5.8 4.6 4.7 7.9Japan 3.5 -23.0 -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2 1.5 1.24New Zealand -3.2 -5.9 -2.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.3 0.0Norway 4.0 11.5 6.7 6.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 0.38Switzerland -1.6 7.4 -0.6 2.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.2US 2.2 8.2 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1 4.6 75.10

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 2.3 6.8 4.0 11.0 5.5 4.1 4.2 3.9 125.33

Bulgaria 29.8 2.0 -13.8 7.2 5.9 4.1 5.2 5.6 0.02Cyprus 12.1 20.7 -12.0 0.0 2.7 1.4 4.4 5.5 0.00Czech Republic 23.7 -2.5 -4.6 1.8 5.0 2.7 2.8 2.1 0.31Estonia 5.6 -9.6 11.3 13.3 7.5 5.3 5.2 5.2 0.02Hungary 10.0 -8.6 18.0 6.0 8.8 4.0 5.8 4.7 0.05Latvia 19.9 5.2 -19.4 11.3 4.9 5.7 4.6 4.8 0.00Lithuania -10.1 59.9 -1.7 14.8 8.9 5.9 6.6 4.8 0.02Malta -22.8 -2.8 1.2 3.4 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.6 0.00Poland 12.3 7.4 11.1 10.6 6.5 5.4 5.2 5.5 0.41Romania -4.5 26.8 18.4 -0.1 4.4 4.6 5.3 4.9 0.31Slovak Republic 32.4 56.0 9.0 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.3 2.6 0.12Slovenia -7.6 -24.2 -22.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.1 -0.1 0.05EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 7.9 9.8 7.4 4.9 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 1.32

Brazil 15.4 17.6 5.2 6.7 6.4 5.3 4.7 4.6 3.14Russia 6.9 3.0 -13.9 29.8 9.2 7.6 7.7 6.4 9.21India 13.9 0.2 4.7 11.8 10.8 9.0 7.4 5.9 0.03China 19.0 12.1 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 7.1 5.66BRICs 11.1 8.1 -3.6 17.1 8.0 7.1 7.1 6.3 18.04

Turkey 14.1 -9.4 -2.8 -6.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 8.0 0.20Ukraine -1.0 -7.6 -7.8 26.6 10.3 7.9 7.3 6.1 0.33

Hong Kong -2.5 -1.1 7.7 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.8 0.26Indonesia 7.8 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 0.26Korea 7.7 44.1 16.3 7.9 9.9 6.8 5.0 4.1 0.87Malaysia -9.5 -9.3 -6.0 12.2 13.0 4.4 4.4 4.0 0.03Pakistan 11.6 8.7 4.7 11.8 10.3 8.3 5.6 3.3 0.15Philippines 12.8 31.3 -2.8 -5.8 -1.5 4.0 4.5 4.4 0.01Singapore 4.6 -1.8 -7.8 8.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 3.3 1.93Taiwan 0.9 9.4 -0.4 3.5 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.6 0.10Thailand -2.1 3.5 1.0 2.7 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.8 1.14Vietnam -53.7 12.4 7.0 0.9 5.6 6.0 5.7 5.2 0.00

Argentina 30.4 5.4 -3.0 4.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 3.5 1.07Chile 21.7 21.8 9.5 6.7 7.0 5.4 4.4 4.3 0.36Colombia 7.3 6.9 7.3 8.0 6.3 5.8 6.5 6.8 0.03Ecuador -2.4 0.6 3.7 8.1 4.9 2.1 4.7 5.7 0.00Mexico 11.4 12.0 2.1 8.8 7.9 7.3 6.9 6.1 0.34Uruguay -26.0 -29.8 -2.5 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.3 0.00Venezuela 2.0 18.3 -5.4 4.3 6.9 7.2 6.7 5.1 0.75

Bahrain -26.2 -27.7 120.1 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 0.00Egypt - - - - - - - - 0.00Iraq -9.2 2.5 2.0 5.8 4.2 2.4 1.3 0.1 0.00Israel 3.4 -0.6 -5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.3 0.89Kuwait -6.9 3.2 2.4 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 0.00Oman 0.9 5.0 2.9 6.5 6.0 5.1 4.7 3.4 0.01Qatar 17.5 0.4 6.2 7.6 6.5 5.2 5.3 5.0 0.12Saudi Arabia -5.0 -17.9 8.9 10.9 5.1 4.2 4.5 3.3 0.00South Africa 6.1 -0.8 2.4 5.4 4.9 6.8 6.6 5.9 0.51United Arab Emirates -24.0 -0.2 2.8 5.5 5.3 3.9 3.8 3.2 0.00EMERGING MARKETS 8.9 7.4 -2.1 12.9 7.3 6.5 6.3 5.7 28.74

WORLD 3.3 6.9 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6 4.3 154.06

Aerospace(Annual percentage changes unless specified)

US$bn (2005 prices)2012

Aerospace


2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017Austria 0.10 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.03Belgium 0.93 0.88 0.14 0.13 0.32 0.24Denmark 0.09 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02Finland 0.20 0.19 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04France 3.45 4.03 0.34 0.39 4.47 4.09Germany 1.65 2.21 0.36 0.47 6.55 6.87Greece 1.38 1.42 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.12Ireland 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Italy 1.45 1.83 0.24 0.31 2.44 2.42Luxembourg 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Netherlands 0.44 0.47 0.06 0.06 0.24 0.19Portugal 0.19 0.24 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03Spain 0.87 0.97 0.12 0.14 0.80 0.73Sweden 1.29 1.25 0.24 0.23 0.57 0.46UK 6.71 7.97 0.73 0.84 9.99 9.66EU15 2.10 2.56 0.32 0.39 25.70 24.93

Australia 1.11 1.10 0.10 0.10 0.53 0.44Canada 5.91 6.60 0.68 0.75 5.15 4.86Japan 0.13 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.80 0.67New Zealand 0.30 0.27 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02Norway 1.46 1.70 0.13 0.16 0.24 0.25Switzerland 0.28 0.27 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.12US 4.16 4.62 0.55 0.65 48.74 49.82

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 2.54 2.93 0.38 0.45 81.34 81.11

Bulgaria 0.49 0.42 0.07 0.07 0.014 0.011Cyprus 0.08 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.001 0.000Czech Republic 0.71 0.64 0.24 0.23 0.200 0.163Estonia 0.67 0.80 0.11 0.14 0.010 0.011Hungary 0.24 0.32 0.06 0.08 0.036 0.040Latvia 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000Lithuania 0.37 0.37 0.08 0.09 0.014 0.015Malta 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000Poland 0.50 0.60 0.04 0.05 0.269 0.295Romania 1.28 1.48 0.30 0.36 0.195 0.201Slovak Republic 0.58 0.62 0.17 0.18 0.081 0.076Slovenia 0.61 0.45 0.14 0.11 0.030 0.018EASTERN EUROPE (EU12) 0.60 0.66 0.09 0.10 0.854 0.835

Brazil 2.13 2.37 0.33 0.36 2.04 2.03Russia 7.17 7.62 1.15 1.36 5.98 6.38India 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02China 0.37 0.36 0.13 0.12 3.67 3.94BRICs 0.90 0.89 0.24 0.24 11.71 12.36

Turkey 0.17 0.14 0.04 0.03 0.12 0.10Ukraine 1.99 2.04 0.37 0.47 0.21 0.24

Hong Kong 5.66 6.92 0.11 0.11 0.16 0.16Indonesia 0.25 0.23 0.06 0.06 0.17 0.16Korea 0.28 0.35 0.09 0.12 0.56 0.66Malaysia 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Pakistan 0.60 0.69 0.11 0.14 0.10 0.11Philippines 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Singapore 3.93 3.70 1.09 1.01 1.23 1.03Taiwan 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.06Thailand 1.45 1.29 0.51 0.48 0.73 0.65Vietnam 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Argentina 1.86 1.77 0.43 0.42 0.70 0.61Chile 1.71 2.00 0.24 0.27 0.23 0.24Colombia 0.12 0.13 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Ecuador 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Mexico 0.20 0.21 0.03 0.04 0.22 0.23Uruguay 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Venezuela 2.18 2.25 0.41 0.42 0.48 0.44

Bahrain 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Egypt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Iraq 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Israel 3.96 3.74 0.57 0.54 0.57 0.49Kuwait 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Oman 0.12 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00Qatar 1.19 1.18 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.08Saudi Arabia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00South Africa 1.09 1.16 0.19 0.20 0.33 0.32United Arab Emirates 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

EMERGING MARKETS 0.78 0.78 0.18 0.18 18.66 18.89

Aerospace shares% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output

Aerospace

9

Key Macro Drivers Aerospace products are expensive, discrete items

with long delivery times, breaking any immediate link

between short-term economic developments and

sector production. The production series can also be

quite erratic, reflecting when/where the value added

associated with aircraft production is booked.

However, civilian aircraft purchases ultimately stem

from increasing demands to transport people and

freight by air, whilst military purchases are driven by

perceived threat levels, defence priorities and

government budget constraints.

There is also a growing push for emerging countries

to expand their own aerospace industries, in order to

break the Airbus/Boeing duopoly.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15% year

Aerospaceoutput (LHS)


Emerging markets: Aerospace output and investment

Forecast

Total fixed investment (RHS)

% year

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20% year

Aerospace output (LHS)


Developed countries: Aerospace output and investment

Forecast

Total fixed investment

(RHS)

% year

Aerospace2%

Other manufacturing sectors

98%

Aerospace - 2012Share of world manufacturing (2005 US$bn)


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15% year Aerospace

output (LHS)


Developed countries: Aerospace output and exports

ForecastTotal exports of goods and

services (RHS)

% year

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12% year

Aerospace output (LHS)


Emerging markets: Aerospace output and exports

Forecast

Total exports of goods and services

(RHS)

Aerospace


Latest Monthly Trends April saw a further decline in US aerospace production, of 0.9%

to stand 0.3% below its year-ago level. Clearly, the 787

Dreamliner grounding has been having a greater-than-expected

impact upon Boeing’s booked deliveries, which in turn is being

reflected in the value-added data. The lifting of the aircraft’s

global grounding at the end of April has allowed some

commercial flights to resume, once the approved adjustments

have been made to the plane’s electrical systems, but it will take

time for deliveries of new aircraft to get back on track.

In the meantime, Airbus received another large order in April, this

time worth US$4.1bn from China for 18 wide-body A330 aircraft.

This firms up part of an earlier agreement (for 45 A330s in total),

which had been delayed by the China/EU dispute over the EU’s

decision – now suspended – to include foreign carriers in its

emission trading scheme. European production data for March

were mixed, after a generally strong start to 2013. Germany and

Italy posted further gains while the UK aerospace sector

continued to rebound from January’s modest setback. Output in

France weakened after February’s surge.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics

% year

Triad aerospace: Output growth

US

ForecastW. Europe

Triad

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


2005=100

Aerospace: Output

US

Forecast

EU15

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Oxford Economics

2005=100

EU15 aerospace: Output

Germany

Forecast

France

Italy

UK

EU15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US$bn

Commercial

Defence

Aerospace: US unfilled orders

Source: Haver Analytics

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Balance, normalised

Source: Haver Analytics

France

Confidence Indicators

UK

3 month moving averages

Aerospace

11

-20

-10

0

10

20

May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13

Total

Domestic

US passenger traffic

International

Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics

% year

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Apr-12 Apr-13

North Atlantic

Europe

European passenger traffic

Far-East / Australia

Source: AEA

% year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bombardier

Embraer

Deliveries: Embraer and Bombardier

Source: Oxford Economics / Company reports

Deliveries

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Boeing

Airbus

Deliveries: Airbus and Boeing

Source: Oxford Economics / Company reports

Deliveries

Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % change Index % changeApr 125.3 7.5 160.0 8.4 124.5 6.3 123.4 -10.4 153.3 4.0May 126.2 7.5 161.1 7.8 122.5 6.0 122.4 4.7 158.2 11.3Jun 126.5 7.1 160.2 9.4 120.5 4.0 125.3 7.3 161.0 14.8Jul 127.5 6.8 163.6 11.9 124.1 3.9 113.6 -9.8 161.1 16.9Aug 128.5 6.8 163.6 7.4 130.7 21.1 128.5 5.7 160.9 18.5Sep 128.6 6.7 163.1 6.6 121.8 -3.3 121.0 7.4 160.5 16.2Oct 129.2 5.7 166.9 9.9 121.4 -4.4 120.3 2.7 163.6 17.6Nov 128.3 3.7 168.6 8.3 134.5 7.9 119.5 -1.2 164.8 9.7Dec 128.3 4.6 167.0 7.8 123.8 -6.0 134.5 12.5 168.8 8.3

2013Jan 126.7 3.3 172.9 12.6 122.2 -1.1 120.5 -0.3 156.7 9.1Feb 126.1 -0.1 171.0 10.1 130.8 9.8 124.6 4.1 158.8 10.5Mar 126.1 0.3 184.2 14.9 124.9 -6.2 128.3 3.7 161.9 6.6Apr 125.0 -0.3 - - - - - - - -

Industry Output - Industry Output - AerospaceValue Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

USA Germany France Italy UK

Aerospace


Forecast in Detail – Europe, Middle East & Africa

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Sweden


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

Netherlands

Belgium

Spain

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Russia

Turkey

Romania


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Hungary

Poland

Czech Republic


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

Slovak Republic

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Italy

UK Germany


Aerospace: Output

ForecastFrance

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


EU15: Other means of transport output growth

Forecast

Aerospace

Ships, rolling stock etc

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


EU15: Other means of transport output growth

Forecast

Aerospace

13

NACE rev 2industry code: 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 93-97 98-02 03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22

AUSTRIAAerospace 30.3 183.1 160.7 177.0 186.7 189.9 192.8% change y-o-y -10.4 -12.2 10.2 5.5 1.7 1.5 79.0 -31.7 16.5 3.3 1.0 1.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 107.0 92.3 97.4 102.3 104.1 105.9% change y-o-y -10.4 -13.7 5.6 5.0 1.8 1.7 -12.1 20.0 11.7 -3.9 -0.2 1.5

TOTAL 30 110.0 95.0 100.6 105.7 107.5 109.4% change y-o-y -10.4 -13.6 5.9 5.1 1.7 1.7 -2.9 9.1 11.9 -3.5 -0.1 1.5

BELGIUMAerospace 30.3 92.8 84.1 88.0 89.6 90.9 92.3% change y-o-y -16.9 -9.4 4.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 -4.3 10.6 8.1 -5.0 -0.1 1.5

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 37.3 32.9 35.1 36.5 37.2 37.8% change y-o-y -24.2 -11.9 6.7 3.9 1.9 1.8 15.6 -3.1 -9.8 -12.7 0.3 1.8

TOTAL 30 79.1 71.4 75.0 76.5 77.7 78.9% change y-o-y -17.8 -9.7 4.9 2.0 1.6 1.5 2.8 4.8 3.4 -6.1 -0.1 1.5

DENMARKAerospace 30.3 30.3 33.3 34.9 36.3 37.2 38.2% change y-o-y -14.4 9.6 5.0 3.8 2.6 2.7 - - -5.9 -14.2 4.7 2.7

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 30.3 32.6 33.9 35.1 36.2 37.4% change y-o-y -14.4 7.4 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 - - -5.9 -14.2 4.3 3.4

TOTAL 30 30.3 32.7 34.0 35.2 36.3 37.5% change y-o-y -14.4 7.7 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.3 - - -5.9 -14.2 4.4 3.3

FINLANDAerospace 30.3 67.5 67.4 67.8 69.1 70.4 71.9% change y-o-y 7.7 -0.1 0.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 7.5 -6.2 27.5 -14.5 1.3 2.0

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 63.5 63.2 63.4 64.4 65.5 66.7% change y-o-y 6.7 -0.4 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 0.5 10.4 11.4 -15.3 1.0 1.8

TOTAL 30 63.9 63.6 63.8 64.8 65.9 67.2% change y-o-y 6.8 -0.4 0.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.2 9.1 12.5 -15.2 1.0 1.8

FRANCEAerospace 30.3 135.4 138.9 149.0 155.6 160.3 164.1% change y-o-y 5.0 2.6 7.3 4.5 3.0 2.4 3.2 -3.2 7.2 3.2 3.9 2.1

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 118.8 117.4 120.9 123.7 125.1 126.2% change y-o-y -1.6 -1.2 3.0 2.3 1.1 0.9 5.3 -1.6 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.8

TOTAL 30 129.8 131.7 139.5 144.9 148.5 151.4% change y-o-y 2.8 1.4 6.0 3.9 2.5 2.0 3.9 -2.6 5.3 2.8 3.1 1.8

GERMANYAerospace 30.3 159.9 180.7 200.6 211.5 217.7 222.2% change y-o-y 8.3 13.0 11.0 5.4 2.9 2.1 -5.0 7.3 6.3 6.0 6.8 2.0

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 104.7 103.6 106.5 108.1 109.3 110.3% change y-o-y 1.9 -1.1 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.9 -8.4 0.1 2.5 -1.1 1.0 1.1

TOTAL 30 136.3 147.7 160.4 167.3 171.3 174.3% change y-o-y 6.1 8.3 8.6 4.3 2.4 1.7 -7.0 3.6 4.6 3.3 5.0 1.8

GREECEAerospace 30.3 45.8 41.7 44.6 45.7 46.9 48.4% change y-o-y -27.4 -9.0 7.1 2.4 2.7 3.1 1.8 -10.9 22.2 -13.0 1.1 5.2

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 16.1 12.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1% change y-o-y -14.1 -20.3 -5.3 2.3 2.6 3.0 -2.9 12.7 -1.4 -31.0 -4.0 5.1

TOTAL 30 28.5 24.9 25.7 26.3 27.0 27.9% change y-o-y -23.5 -12.7 3.4 2.4 2.7 3.1 -1.1 5.3 4.6 -22.0 -0.4 5.2

Average 5 year % growth

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transportNACE 30

Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100

Aerospace



IRELANDAerospace 30.3 105.4 88.7 96.7 100.2 104.2 109.1% change y-o-y -7.0 -15.9 9.1 3.6 3.9 4.7 -19.4 -3.2 -0.2 0.7 0.7 5.9

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 163.4 137.5 148.9 154.3 160.3 167.9% change y-o-y -1.0 -15.9 8.3 3.6 3.9 4.7 6.7 1.8 6.2 0.5 0.5 5.9

TOTAL 30 124.9 105.1 114.3 118.4 123.1 128.9% change y-o-y -4.5 -15.9 8.7 3.6 3.9 4.7 -15.0 -1.5 2.3 0.6 0.6 5.9

ITALYAerospace 30.3 133.0 140.1 150.3 162.8 171.1 174.7% change y-o-y 4.6 5.3 7.3 8.3 5.1 2.1 0.0 2.8 0.6 5.6 5.6 1.7

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 78.1 73.6 74.0 79.5 84.5 88.6% change y-o-y -1.2 -5.8 0.6 7.4 6.4 4.8 -4.3 1.6 -7.4 2.6 2.6 2.2

TOTAL 30 101.7 102.2 106.8 115.3 121.8 125.6% change y-o-y 2.0 0.4 4.5 7.9 5.6 3.2 -2.5 2.1 -3.4 4.3 4.3 1.9

LUXEMBOURGAerospace 30.3 81.8 79.9 85.1 88.0 91.0 93.9% change y-o-y -2.7 -2.3 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 - 16.4 -6.3 2.8 2.8 2.7

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 59.2 57.9 62.3 64.6 66.5 68.4% change y-o-y -2.7 -2.2 7.5 3.8 3.0 2.8 - 15.5 -9.9 2.9 2.9 2.3

TOTAL 30 69.7 68.2 72.9 75.5 78.0 80.3% change y-o-y -2.7 -2.2 6.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 - 15.9 -8.0 2.9 2.9 2.5

NETHERLANDSAerospace 30.3 154.1 156.7 160.7 163.5 164.8 166.5% change y-o-y 6.9 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.8 1.1 5.6 4.9 3.9 1.6 1.6 1.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 126.3 128.6 131.4 133.0 134.4 136.2% change y-o-y 3.3 1.8 2.2 1.2 1.0 1.3 3.6 2.6 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.6

TOTAL 30 131.0 133.3 136.4 138.2 139.5 141.3% change y-o-y 4.0 1.8 2.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 3.9 2.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5

PORTUGALAerospace 30.3 77.9 82.5 87.8 91.3 95.1 98.1% change y-o-y -8.6 5.9 6.4 4.1 4.1 3.2 5.8 0.3 -5.7 4.7 4.7 3.1

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 51.2 54.2 57.1 58.7 60.2 61.3% change y-o-y -8.6 5.9 5.4 2.7 2.6 1.8 -7.2 -9.3 -8.5 3.7 3.7 2.0

TOTAL 30 58.5 61.9 65.5 67.6 69.7 71.3% change y-o-y -8.6 5.9 5.8 3.2 3.1 2.3 -5.0 -6.8 -7.6 4.0 4.0 2.4

SPAINAerospace 30.3 105.0 109.4 114.8 118.2 122.8 127.9% change y-o-y -3.5 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.9 4.2 14.3 3.0 2.1 4.0 4.0 4.0

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 63.8 56.5 60.1 63.4 66.2 69.1% change y-o-y -15.3 -11.5 6.5 5.4 4.4 4.5 -3.9 -0.1 -10.0 1.6 1.6 4.3

TOTAL 30 77.7 74.3 78.5 81.8 85.2 88.9% change y-o-y -10.4 -4.4 5.7 4.2 4.1 4.3 -0.5 0.8 -5.6 2.7 2.7 4.2

SWEDENAerospace 30.3 102.1 100.6 102.9 104.4 106.0 107.9% change y-o-y -4.9 -1.4 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 5.4 2.6 -0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 65.1 59.1 60.5 61.9 62.6 63.4% change y-o-y -13.2 -9.1 2.3 2.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 -1.8 -7.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.6

TOTAL 30 86.5 83.2 85.0 86.5 87.7 89.1% change y-o-y -7.7 -3.8 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.6 3.6 0.7 -3.1 0.6 0.6 1.0

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100


Aerospace

15


UNITED KINGDOMAerospace 30.3 157.7 169.0 183.8 190.7 196.3 202.1% change y-o-y 9.0 7.2 8.8 3.8 2.9 2.9 -0.5 6.7 5.2 5.1 5.1 2.9

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 165.8 176.3 183.0 186.9 191.4 196.8% change y-o-y 5.5 6.4 3.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 -4.9 3.7 11.1 3.5 3.5 2.9

TOTAL 30 172.8 185.5 198.8 205.3 211.0 217.1% change y-o-y 7.7 7.3 7.2 3.3 2.8 2.9 0.9 4.8 9.4 4.7 4.7 2.9

EU15Aerospace 30.3 145.9 156.0 169.5 177.4 182.9 187.5% change y-o-y 6.1 7.0 8.6 4.6 3.1 2.5 1.0 6.1 3.8 5.1 5.1 2.4

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 101.3 100.8 103.9 106.9 109.5 112.1% change y-o-y -0.2 -0.5 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 -1.5 2.3 -1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1

TOTAL 30 125.3 130.5 139.1 144.8 148.9 152.6% change y-o-y 3.6 4.2 6.6 4.0 2.9 2.5 -0.3 4.4 1.7 4.0 4.0 2.3

BULGARIAAerospace 30.3 539.0 464.5 497.8 527.4 549.1 577.5% change y-o-y 2.0 -13.8 7.2 5.9 4.1 5.2 6.5 43.0 19.5 1.4 1.4 5.6

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 40.8 35.1 36.6 37.8 38.4 39.5% change y-o-y 2.0 -13.8 4.2 3.4 1.6 2.6 -12.2 1.3 -15.1 -0.7 -0.7 3.0

TOTAL 30 90.6 78.1 82.8 86.9 89.6 93.3% change y-o-y 2.0 -13.8 6.0 4.9 3.1 4.2 -11.7 5.2 -3.0 0.6 0.6 4.7

CYPRUSAerospace 30.3 243.3 214.1 214.0 219.7 222.8 232.7% change y-o-y 20.7 -12.0 0.0 2.6 1.4 4.4 - 15.8 13.9 -0.9 -0.9 5.5

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 19.6 17.2 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.7% change y-o-y -23.3 -12.0 -1.5 1.3 0.1 3.0 - 20.0 -28.7 -2.0 -2.0 4.3

TOTAL 30 27.0 23.7 23.5 23.9 24.0 24.8% change y-o-y -14.0 -12.0 -1.1 1.7 0.5 3.4 - 19.8 -24.1 -1.7 -1.7 4.7

CZECH REPUBLICAerospace 30.3 368.2 351.4 357.8 375.9 386.0 396.7% change y-o-y -2.5 -4.6 1.8 5.0 2.7 2.8 9.2 19.9 14.3 1.5 1.5 2.1

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 264.5 257.4 276.3 291.5 302.3 312.9% change y-o-y 1.9 -2.7 7.3 5.5 3.7 3.5 8.7 15.1 7.5 3.4 3.4 2.3

TOTAL 30 285.7 276.6 292.9 308.7 319.4 330.0% change y-o-y 0.7 -3.2 5.9 5.4 3.4 3.3 8.8 16.0 9.1 2.9 2.9 2.2

ESTONIAAerospace 30.3 106.1 118.0 133.7 143.7 151.3 159.2% change y-o-y -9.6 11.3 13.3 7.5 5.3 5.2 29.1 9.7 -1.8 8.5 8.5 5.2

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 106.1 118.0 130.8 140.6 147.6 155.2% change y-o-y -9.6 11.3 10.8 7.5 5.0 5.1 -8.2 36.2 -1.8 7.9 7.9 4.9

TOTAL 30 106.1 118.0 131.4 141.2 148.3 156.0% change y-o-y -9.6 11.3 11.3 7.5 5.1 5.1 -0.2 27.7 -1.8 8.0 8.0 5.0

HUNGARYAerospace 30.3 138.8 163.8 173.7 188.9 196.5 207.9% change y-o-y -8.6 18.0 6.0 8.8 4.0 5.8 10.7 14.2 2.8 8.4 8.4 4.7

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 95.9 101.9 100.3 103.5 106.3 111.1% change y-o-y -4.7 6.3 -1.6 3.2 2.7 4.5 5.3 9.6 -3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0

TOTAL 30 105.4 115.7 116.6 122.5 126.4 132.6% change y-o-y -5.9 9.7 0.8 5.1 3.1 4.9 6.2 10.6 -2.1 4.7 4.7 3.6

NACE 30Average 5 year % growth

Value Added Index, 2005=100

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed output

Aerospace



LATVIAAerospace 30.3 211.5 170.4 189.7 198.9 210.3 220.0% change y-o-y 5.2 -19.4 11.3 4.9 5.7 4.6 - -19.4 25.4 0.8 0.8 4.8

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 111.1 89.5 100.6 106.4 111.4 116.1% change y-o-y 5.2 -19.4 12.4 5.8 4.7 4.2 - -5.3 1.9 0.9 0.9 4.0

TOTAL 30 111.3 89.7 100.7 106.6 111.6 116.3% change y-o-y 5.2 -19.4 12.4 5.8 4.7 4.2 - -5.3 1.9 0.9 0.9 4.0

LITHUANIAAerospace 30.3 94.6 93.0 106.8 116.3 123.2 131.3% change y-o-y 59.9 -1.7 14.8 8.9 5.9 6.6 - 11.5 -2.7 6.8 6.8 4.8

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 97.9 96.3 111.2 122.9 133.1 142.5% change y-o-y 36.5 -1.7 15.5 10.5 8.3 7.0 - 10.0 0.4 7.8 7.8 5.2

TOTAL 30 97.3 95.7 110.4 121.7 131.3 140.4% change y-o-y 40.2 -1.7 15.4 10.2 7.9 6.9 - 10.3 -0.2 7.6 7.6 5.1

MALTAAerospace 30.3 19.4 19.6 20.3 21.5 22.1 22.3% change y-o-y -2.8 1.2 3.4 5.7 2.8 1.0 -9.1 -27.0 -20.5 2.8 2.8 0.6

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 61.5 62.2 65.3 69.4 72.4 74.3% change y-o-y -2.8 1.2 5.0 6.2 4.4 2.6 30.5 -17.4 -7.2 3.8 3.8 2.3

TOTAL 30 58.6 59.3 62.2 66.1 69.0 70.7% change y-o-y -2.8 1.2 4.9 6.2 4.3 2.6 21.5 -18.0 -7.7 3.8 3.8 2.2

POLANDAerospace 30.3 214.4 238.2 263.3 280.5 295.7 311.1% change y-o-y 7.4 11.1 10.6 6.5 5.4 5.2 1.5 10.7 12.1 7.7 7.7 5.5


TOTAL 30 163.1 171.8 189.0 198.4 207.2 215.9% change y-o-y 10.7 5.3 10.0 4.9 4.4 4.2 0.9 7.0 6.9 5.8 5.8 4.5

ROMANIAAerospace 30.3 127.3 150.7 150.6 157.2 164.3 173.0% change y-o-y 26.8 18.4 -0.1 4.4 4.6 5.3 3.9 50.2 -3.1 6.3 6.3 4.9

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 28.1 41.5 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.4% change y-o-y 2.2 47.8 1.0 5.0 4.5 5.2 -1.3 -3.1 -21.9 11.5 11.5 4.8

TOTAL 30 74.3 92.4 92.5 96.7 101.1 106.4% change y-o-y 20.9 24.4 0.2 4.5 4.5 5.3 -0.7 11.7 -9.3 7.5 7.5 4.9

SLOVAK REPUBLICAerospace 30.3 576.1 627.9 648.8 672.7 701.0 724.0% change y-o-y 56.0 9.0 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.3 - 9.6 40.7 4.7 4.7 2.6

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 244.7 266.0 276.2 285.3 294.9 302.2% change y-o-y 47.5 8.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.5 - 22.0 6.1 4.3 4.3 2.9

TOTAL 30 303.5 330.2 342.3 354.0 366.9 377.0% change y-o-y 50.3 8.8 3.7 3.4 3.7 2.7 - 20.2 12.5 4.4 4.4 2.8

SLOVENIAAerospace 30.3 47.9 37.3 37.4 37.7 37.7 38.1% change y-o-y -24.2 -22.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.1 79.6 24.6 -15.0 -4.5 -4.5 -0.1

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 47.9 37.3 37.5 38.2 39.5 41.1% change y-o-y -24.2 -22.0 0.4 2.0 3.3 4.1 61.6 24.6 -15.0 -3.0 -3.0 3.1

TOTAL 30 47.9 37.3 37.5 38.1 39.1 40.5% change y-o-y -24.2 -22.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 3.6 64.2 24.6 -15.0 -3.3 -3.3 2.6

NACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed output


Aerospace

17


EASTERN EUROPE (EU12)Aerospace 30.3 174.6 187.5 196.6 207.3 216.3 226.1% change y-o-y 9.8 7.4 4.9 5.4 4.3 4.5 6.8 22.4 6.1 5.3 5.3 4.3


TOTAL 30 140.9 145.1 154.7 162.4 169.0 175.9% change y-o-y 7.3 3.0 6.6 5.0 4.1 4.1 5.5 11.9 2.2 4.5 4.5 3.7

NORWAYAerospace 30.3 157.3 167.8 178.7 188.4 199.4 211.1% change y-o-y 11.5 6.7 6.5 5.4 5.8 5.8 0.9 5.7 4.9 6.1 6.1 5.6


TOTAL 30 159.8 176.1 184.0 189.1 193.5 197.9% change y-o-y 12.8 10.2 4.5 2.8 2.3 2.3 0.9 5.8 4.8 4.4 4.4 2.1

RUSSIAAerospace 30.3 143.8 123.9 160.7 175.5 188.9 203.3% change y-o-y 3.0 -13.9 29.8 9.2 7.6 7.7 7.6 3.1 6.5 7.2 7.2 6.4


TOTAL 30 160.6 153.6 186.7 201.7 215.2 229.8% change y-o-y 13.2 -4.3 21.5 8.1 6.7 6.8 3.2 3.6 8.4 7.4 7.4 6.0

SWITZERLANDAerospace 30.3 121.5 120.8 123.5 125.0 126.4 127.7% change y-o-y 7.4 -0.6 2.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 5.3 2.9 -1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 113.7 110.2 107.5 107.2 107.7 108.1% change y-o-y 6.3 -3.1 -2.5 -0.2 0.4 0.4 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 0.6

TOTAL 30 118.9 117.2 118.2 119.1 120.1 121.1% change y-o-y 7.0 -1.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.4 -0.8 0.4 0.4 1.0

TURKEYAerospace 30.3 234.6 228.1 213.3 223.1 234.6 247.2% change y-o-y -9.4 -2.8 -6.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 - 25.1 -3.0 1.0 1.0 8.0

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 50.8 38.0 47.6 46.2 44.7 43.9% change y-o-y -27.2 -25.1 25.2 -2.9 -3.3 -1.8 - -1.7 -22.0 -2.9 -2.9 6.5

TOTAL 30 109.9 99.1 100.9 103.1 105.7 109.2% change y-o-y -15.9 -9.8 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.3 - 5.4 -11.9 -0.1 -0.1 7.6

UKRAINEAerospace 30.3 99.5 91.7 116.1 128.0 138.1 148.2% change y-o-y -7.6 -7.8 26.6 10.3 7.9 7.3 5.1 12.7 -5.0 8.3 8.3 6.1

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 5.7 5.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.4% change y-o-y -38.5 -7.8 27.4 7.5 8.3 7.6 16.3 81.8 -36.6 8.0 8.0 5.8

TOTAL 30 62.5 57.7 73.0 80.4 86.8 93.1% change y-o-y -9.2 -7.8 26.6 10.2 7.9 7.3 5.3 17.8 -8.9 8.3 8.3 6.1

EUROPEAerospace 30.3 148.1 152.6 170.5 179.9 187.1 193.8% change y-o-y 5.5 3.1 11.7 5.5 4.0 3.6 2.2 5.9 4.2 5.5 5.5 3.4


TOTAL 30 131.7 135.7 147.4 154.2 159.6 164.8% change y-o-y 5.4 3.1 8.6 4.6 3.5 3.2 0.5 4.7 2.6 4.6 4.6 3.0

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100


Aerospace



BAHRAINAerospace 30.3 13.6 29.9 31.1 32.4 33.4 34.5% change y-o-y -27.7 120.1 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.3 - - -20.3 -26.7 20.5 3.4

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 182.3 191.6 198.5 204.9 209.3 214.1% change y-o-y 4.9 5.1 3.6 3.2 2.2 2.3 - - 19.4 6.7 3.3 2.4

TOTAL 30 179.7 189.2 196.0 202.3 206.7 211.4% change y-o-y 4.8 5.2 3.6 3.2 2.2 2.3 - - 18.3 6.5 3.3 2.4

IRAQAerospace 30.3 68.9 70.3 74.3 77.5 79.3 80.3% change y-o-y 2.5 2.0 5.8 4.2 2.4 1.3 - -37.6 -8.7 -7.7 3.1 0.1

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 51.1 53.2 56.8 60.2 63.5 66.8% change y-o-y 4.3 4.1 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.2 - 3.5 -16.6 -10.6 5.5 3.4

TOTAL 30 52.2 54.3 57.9 61.3 64.5 67.7% change y-o-y 4.2 4.0 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.9 - -5.2 -16.1 -10.3 5.3 3.2

ISRAELAerospace 30.3 122.9 116.1 122.4 128.9 135.5 141.6% change y-o-y -0.6 -5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.6 - 8.4 7.0 1.1 2.9 4.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 74.7 76.4 77.8 78.6 79.2 79.4% change y-o-y -7.5 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.2 - 3.7 -1.1 -5.6 1.2 0.2

TOTAL 30 105.7 102.0 106.5 111.0 115.5 119.5% change y-o-y -2.4 -3.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.5 - 6.3 3.9 -0.9 2.5 3.4

KUWAITAerospace 30.3 68.6 70.2 73.5 76.0 77.9 80.0% change y-o-y 3.2 2.4 4.7 3.5 2.5 2.7 - - - -10.0 3.1 2.8

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 71.0 72.7 76.0 78.7 80.6 82.8% change y-o-y 3.2 2.4 4.6 3.5 2.5 2.7 - - - -9.2 3.1 2.8

TOTAL 30 70.9 72.6 75.9 78.6 80.5 82.6% change y-o-y 3.2 2.4 4.6 3.5 2.5 2.7 - - - -9.3 3.1 2.8

OMANAerospace 30.3 74.0 76.1 81.1 86.0 90.4 94.6% change y-o-y 5.0 2.9 6.5 6.0 5.1 4.7 - - -21.1 -0.5 5.0 3.4

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 303.0 312.7 332.9 353.8 373.7 393.2% change y-o-y 5.0 3.2 6.4 6.3 5.6 5.2 - - -13.0 18.8 5.3 4.2

TOTAL 30 135.9 140.1 149.1 158.4 166.9 175.3% change y-o-y 5.0 3.1 6.5 6.2 5.4 5.0 - - -18.6 8.6 5.2 3.9

QATARAerospace 30.3 256.3 272.2 292.8 311.8 327.8 345.2% change y-o-y 0.4 6.2 7.6 6.5 5.2 5.3 16.0 28.0 14.7 14.1 6.1 5.0

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 151.1 160.5 170.7 180.7 189.8 199.8% change y-o-y -8.6 6.2 6.4 5.9 5.0 5.3 78.1 -10.3 12.9 4.1 5.8 4.7

TOTAL 30 245.1 260.3 279.8 297.8 313.2 329.7% change y-o-y -0.2 6.2 7.5 6.4 5.2 5.3 27.1 17.6 14.5 13.3 6.1 5.0

SAUDI ARABIAAerospace 30.3 56.9 62.0 68.7 72.2 75.2 78.6% change y-o-y -17.9 8.9 10.9 5.1 4.2 4.5 -0.8 1.2 -40.4 -8.9 6.7 3.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 190.0 196.8 205.4 214.7 223.0 232.2% change y-o-y -6.3 3.6 4.4 4.5 3.9 4.1 29.3 7.4 35.6 4.3 4.1 3.2

TOTAL 30 151.1 157.4 165.5 173.1 179.9 187.3% change y-o-y -7.8 4.2 5.1 4.6 3.9 4.1 -0.1 1.5 -18.5 2.2 4.4 3.2

Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport Detailed outputValue Added Index, 2005=100

Average 5 year % growthNACE 30

Aerospace

19


UAEAerospace 30.3 21.4 22.0 23.2 24.5 25.4 26.4% change y-o-y -0.2 2.8 5.5 5.3 3.9 3.8 - -14.4 -33.4 -20.0 4.2 3.2

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 35.3 36.4 38.6 40.8 42.8 44.8% change y-o-y -0.3 3.2 5.9 5.9 4.9 4.6 - 6.1 -7.3 -14.2 4.9 4.0

TOTAL 30 33.7 34.8 36.8 39.0 40.8 42.7% change y-o-y -0.2 3.2 5.9 5.8 4.8 4.5 - -4.7 -13.6 -14.7 4.8 3.9

EGYPTAerospace 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% change y-o-y 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3% change y-o-y -49.0 -1.8 3.9 7.1 5.8 5.7 - - 47.9 -40.3 4.1 5.2

TOTAL 30 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3% change y-o-y -49.0 -1.8 3.9 7.1 5.8 5.7 - - 47.9 -40.3 4.1 5.2

SOUTH AFRICAAerospace 30.3 146.0 149.5 157.6 165.3 176.6 188.2% change y-o-y -0.8 2.4 5.4 4.9 6.8 6.6 27.5 -2.9 10.9 3.9 5.2 5.9

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 70.4 72.1 75.4 78.2 81.5 85.8% change y-o-y -10.6 2.4 4.5 3.8 4.2 5.3 -2.8 -1.5 -16.2 -6.4 4.0 4.2

TOTAL 30 123.7 126.7 133.4 139.6 148.5 158.0% change y-o-y -2.6 2.4 5.3 4.7 6.4 6.4 5.1 -2.1 -1.2 1.6 5.0 5.6

EUROPE, ME & AFRICAAerospace 30.3 147.6 152.0 169.5 178.8 186.0 192.8% change y-o-y 5.3 2.9 11.5 5.5 4.1 3.6 5.5 2.2 5.9 4.2 5.5 3.4

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 111.8 115.2 119.5 123.3 126.6 130.0% change y-o-y 5.1 3.0 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.7 4.2 -1.2 3.1 0.2 3.1 2.5

TOTAL 30 131.1 135.0 146.4 153.2 158.6 163.8% change y-o-y 5.2 3.0 8.5 4.6 3.5 3.3 4.8 0.5 4.6 2.5 4.6 3.1

Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100


Europe, Middle East and Africa: Other means of transport

Aerospace


Forecast in Detail - Americas

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


Americas: Other means of transport output growth

Forecast

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


Americas: Other means of transport output growth

Forecast

Aerospace


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


US: Other means of transport output growth

Forecast

Aerospace


-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Uruguay

Venezuela

Ecuador


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Colombia

Argentina

Chile


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Canada

Brazil

Mexico


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

Aerospace

21


UNITED STATESAerospace 30.3 130.3 134.1 151.6 160.7 167.9 176.4% change y-o-y 8.2 3.0 13.0 6.0 4.5 5.1 -1.1 0.5 6.9 0.5 6.3 4.6


TOTAL 30 130.4 135.9 150.9 158.8 165.3 173.1% change y-o-y 9.8 4.2 11.0 5.2 4.1 4.7 -0.5 1.6 7.1 0.6 5.8 4.3

CANADAAerospace 30.3 107.4 107.8 114.1 121.5 128.6 134.5% change y-o-y 2.9 0.4 5.8 6.5 5.8 4.6 5.6 1.7 4.6 -1.1 4.6 4.7

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 96.0 83.0 87.2 91.1 94.4 97.3% change y-o-y -8.2 -13.5 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.5 -5.1 -1.3 0.9 0.3 3.2

TOTAL 30 105.2 103.0 108.9 115.7 122.0 127.3% change y-o-y 0.8 -2.0 5.7 6.2 5.5 4.4 5.0 0.1 3.5 -0.8 3.9 4.5

ARGENTINAAerospace 30.3 517.9 502.3 524.0 551.9 579.6 605.5% change y-o-y 5.4 -3.0 4.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 - 6.3 62.3 24.3 3.2 3.5

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 104.8 104.2 110.8 115.6 120.3 124.4% change y-o-y -4.3 -0.5 6.3 4.4 4.0 3.4 - -21.4 13.0 -0.2 3.5 2.5

TOTAL 30 227.5 222.4 233.5 245.2 256.7 267.3% change y-o-y 2.0 -2.2 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.1 - -20.1 22.9 12.5 3.3 3.2

BRAZILAerospace 30.3 236.2 248.4 265.0 282.0 296.9 310.9% change y-o-y 17.6 5.2 6.7 6.4 5.3 4.7 - 23.4 8.6 16.7 5.6 4.6

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 129.2 135.8 140.4 145.4 150.9 156.8% change y-o-y -10.9 5.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 - 18.5 8.9 1.0 3.9 3.4

TOTAL 30 190.5 200.3 211.7 223.6 234.5 245.0% change y-o-y 7.6 5.2 5.7 5.6 4.9 4.5 - 21.0 8.7 10.6 5.2 4.2

CHILEAerospace 30.3 348.3 381.3 406.9 435.4 459.0 479.4% change y-o-y 21.8 9.5 6.7 7.0 5.4 4.4 - 24.4 10.7 23.2 6.6 4.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 190.7 208.7 221.7 235.6 246.6 257.3% change y-o-y -7.7 9.5 6.2 6.3 4.7 4.3 - 19.5 11.0 6.7 6.2 4.6

TOTAL 30 295.5 323.4 344.8 368.4 387.8 404.9% change y-o-y 13.9 9.5 6.6 6.8 5.3 4.4 - 22.5 10.8 18.2 6.5 4.4

COLOMBIAAerospace 30.3 210.3 225.6 243.7 259.0 273.9 291.7% change y-o-y 6.9 7.3 8.0 6.3 5.8 6.5 - - 23.4 8.0 6.8 6.8

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 247.4 265.3 286.7 304.7 322.3 343.2% change y-o-y 10.1 7.3 8.1 6.3 5.8 6.5 - - -3.9 24.4 6.8 6.8

TOTAL 30 241.5 259.0 279.9 297.4 314.6 335.0% change y-o-y 9.7 7.3 8.1 6.3 5.8 6.5 - - -0.1 21.1 6.8 6.8

ECUADORAerospace 30.3 83.6 86.7 93.7 98.3 100.4 105.2% change y-o-y 0.6 3.7 8.1 4.9 2.1 4.7 - - -8.0 -0.6 4.7 5.7


TOTAL 30 415.2 441.8 486.7 518.8 544.8 576.7% change y-o-y 0.6 6.4 10.2 6.6 5.0 5.9 - - 4.6 23.7 6.8 5.8


Americas: Other means of transportNACE 30


Aerospace



MEXICOAerospace 30.3 190.0 194.0 211.1 227.7 244.3 261.2% change y-o-y 12.0 2.1 8.8 7.9 7.3 6.9 -13.3 11.2 -8.1 13.6 6.6 6.1


TOTAL 30 190.0 197.0 216.6 233.0 247.1 262.6% change y-o-y 12.0 3.6 10.0 7.5 6.1 6.3 -4.2 3.4 0.5 13.6 6.7 6.5

URUGUAYAerospace 30.3 11.9 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.8% change y-o-y -29.8 -2.5 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.3 -33.4 85.5 -14.6 -27.7 1.5 3.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 112.8 109.9 113.8 118.2 122.5 127.2% change y-o-y -3.0 -2.5 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.9 -25.0 15.1 9.4 0.2 2.4 3.3

TOTAL 30 77.8 75.8 78.4 81.4 84.3 87.6% change y-o-y -5.0 -2.5 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.8 -25.9 29.7 0.3 -3.7 2.4 3.3

VENEZUELAAerospace 30.3 137.1 129.7 135.3 144.5 155.0 165.3% change y-o-y 18.3 -5.4 4.3 6.9 7.2 6.7 - - 9.0 2.8 3.8 5.1

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 100.0 87.0 90.9 96.5 103.0 109.6% change y-o-y -15.3 -13.0 4.5 6.2 6.7 6.4 - - 1.8 -3.6 1.8 4.8

TOTAL 30 118.2 107.9 112.7 120.1 128.5 136.9% change y-o-y 1.0 -8.7 4.4 6.6 7.0 6.5 - - 4.9 -0.3 3.0 5.0

AMERICASAerospace 30.3 155.3 159.5 178.6 189.4 198.2 208.3% change y-o-y 8.1 2.7 11.9 6.0 4.7 5.1 -0.4 0.9 6.7 1.0 6.0 4.6


TOTAL 30 154.1 159.5 175.9 185.3 193.3 202.4% change y-o-y 8.7 3.5 10.2 5.4 4.3 4.7 0.5 1.6 6.8 1.1 5.6 4.3


Americas: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100

Aerospace

23

Forecast in Detail – Asia Pacific

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


Asia Pacific: Other means of transport output growth

ForecastAerospace


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


Asia Pacific: Other means of transport output growth

Forecast

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year


Japan: Other means of transport output growth

Forecast

Aerospace


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

India

China


Aerospace: Output

ForecastKorea

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Vietnam

Singapore


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

Hong Kong

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

% year

Thailand

Malaysia


Aerospace: Output

Forecast

Indonesia

Aerospace



AUSTRALIAAerospace 30.3 90.6 90.4 92.6 95.1 97.7 100.1% change y-o-y 10.8 -0.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.5 - 6.0 0.9 -0.8 2.0 1.7

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 91.5 90.9 91.8 92.6 93.8 94.8% change y-o-y 10.8 -0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 - -0.8 3.6 -0.8 0.7 1.2

TOTAL 30 91.1 90.7 92.1 93.6 95.4 97.0% change y-o-y 10.8 -0.5 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.7 - 1.9 2.5 -0.8 1.3 1.4

JAPANAerospace 30.3 89.9 83.5 88.7 92.5 95.5 98.6% change y-o-y -23.0 -7.1 6.2 4.3 3.2 3.2 -2.0 4.1 5.4 -4.4 1.9 1.5

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 75.5 68.4 71.4 73.7 75.6 77.8% change y-o-y -23.0 -9.3 4.4 3.2 2.6 2.9 -2.4 0.5 3.1 -4.4 0.6 1.2

TOTAL 30 76.9 69.9 73.1 75.5 77.6 79.8% change y-o-y -23.0 -9.0 4.6 3.3 2.7 2.9 -2.3 0.9 3.3 -4.4 0.8 1.2

NEW ZEALANDAerospace 30.3 76.6 74.7 75.3 76.4 78.0 79.8% change y-o-y -5.9 -2.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.3 -5.6 -4.1 -2.5 -4.7 0.8 2.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 84.4 82.3 82.8 84.4 86.5 88.7% change y-o-y -0.2 -2.5 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 11.9 6.3 1.4 -3.1 1.0 2.1

TOTAL 30 84.1 82.0 82.4 84.1 86.1 88.3% change y-o-y -0.4 -2.5 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 9.4 5.5 1.2 -3.1 1.0 2.2

CHINAAerospace 30.3 498.5 539.4 574.0 613.5 658.6 707.5% change y-o-y 12.1 8.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 -18.4 28.9 33.2 15.1 7.3 7.1


TOTAL 30 284.3 310.2 330.8 351.7 374.3 398.5% change y-o-y 9.8 9.1 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.4 20.0 6.2 14.0 14.6 7.0 6.4

HONG KONGAerospace 30.3 86.8 93.5 97.5 101.2 104.9 109.1% change y-o-y -1.1 7.7 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.0 5.1 5.4 -0.2 -2.7 4.7 4.8

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 86.6 93.2 97.0 100.6 104.3 108.4% change y-o-y -1.1 7.7 4.1 3.7 3.7 4.0 5.1 8.2 0.3 -2.7 4.6 4.8

TOTAL 30 86.7 93.4 97.3 101.0 104.7 108.8% change y-o-y -1.1 7.7 4.2 3.7 3.7 4.0 5.1 6.4 0.0 -2.7 4.7 4.8

INDIAAerospace 30.3 130.7 136.8 153.0 169.5 184.8 198.4% change y-o-y 0.2 4.7 11.8 10.8 9.0 7.4 10.7 28.7 -19.6 14.4 8.7 5.9


TOTAL 30 206.2 214.8 237.6 263.4 289.8 312.3% change y-o-y 0.2 4.2 10.6 10.8 10.0 7.8 10.0 15.5 15.6 13.6 8.7 5.2

INDONESIAAerospace 30.3 95.6 100.6 104.4 109.4 113.9 118.8% change y-o-y 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.3 - 63.1 -16.4 11.8 4.5 4.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 95.6 100.6 104.4 109.2 113.6 118.5% change y-o-y 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.6 4.0 4.3 12.1 -13.7 -7.8 11.8 4.4 4.3

TOTAL 30 95.6 100.6 104.4 109.2 113.7 118.5% change y-o-y 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.6 4.0 4.3 12.2 -11.0 -8.9 11.8 4.4 4.3

Average 5 year % growthNACE 30


Asia Pacific: Other means of transport

Aerospace

25


KOREAAerospace 30.3 275.6 320.5 345.8 380.1 406.1 426.2% change y-o-y 44.1 16.3 7.9 9.9 6.8 5.0 15.7 9.8 3.8 15.7 9.1 4.1


TOTAL 30 162.7 172.6 185.5 200.8 212.6 221.9% change y-o-y 7.0 6.1 7.5 8.3 5.9 4.4 10.6 5.0 4.2 6.4 6.4 3.6

MALAYSIAAerospace 30.3 37.8 35.6 39.9 45.1 47.1 49.1% change y-o-y -9.3 -6.0 12.2 13.0 4.4 4.4 12.1 -20.1 -5.4 -9.6 5.4 4.0

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 203.6 191.3 193.1 199.2 205.7 212.5% change y-o-y -3.1 -6.0 0.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 -10.6 16.7 -3.2 0.9 2.8

TOTAL 30 107.8 101.3 104.6 110.1 114.0 118.1% change y-o-y -4.4 -6.0 3.2 5.3 3.5 3.6 8.4 -16.2 7.8 -4.7 1.8 3.1

PAKISTANAerospace 30.3 232.5 243.5 272.1 300.2 325.1 343.3% change y-o-y 8.7 4.7 11.8 10.3 8.3 5.6 - - 37.6 9.6 8.1 3.3


TOTAL 30 177.7 186.1 205.2 224.5 241.8 256.0% change y-o-y 4.8 4.7 10.3 9.4 7.7 5.9 - - 94.0 5.9 7.6 3.7

PHILIPPINESAerospace 30.3 236.5 229.8 216.4 213.1 221.6 231.6% change y-o-y 31.3 -2.8 -5.8 -1.5 4.0 4.5 - - 22.4 14.4 -0.4 4.4

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 30.7 33.4 34.9 37.1 38.4 39.9% change y-o-y -1.9 8.7 4.5 6.3 3.5 4.0 - - -11.8 -14.5 5.4 3.8

TOTAL 30 41.2 43.4 44.1 46.1 47.7 49.7% change y-o-y 5.9 5.3 1.7 4.3 3.6 4.1 - - -10.5 -10.1 3.8 4.0

SINGAPOREAerospace 30.3 136.5 125.9 136.0 142.2 147.2 151.0% change y-o-y -1.8 -7.8 8.0 4.6 3.5 2.6 8.8 11.0 5.3 3.5 2.0 3.3

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 82.9 76.5 83.9 86.4 88.7 89.9% change y-o-y -8.6 -7.8 9.8 3.0 2.6 1.4 -0.9 6.1 -2.7 -3.5 1.6 1.6

TOTAL 30 117.4 108.3 117.5 122.4 126.4 129.3% change y-o-y -3.6 -7.8 8.5 4.2 3.3 2.3 3.6 8.8 2.3 1.4 1.9 2.9

TAIWANAerospace 30.3 115.6 115.2 119.1 124.3 129.3 133.5% change y-o-y 9.4 -0.4 3.5 4.3 4.0 3.3 36.0 9.2 26.3 1.0 2.9 2.6

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 115.6 116.0 119.8 124.9 129.9 134.9% change y-o-y 9.4 0.3 3.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 -0.2 -1.4 9.9 1.0 3.1 3.3

TOTAL 30 115.6 116.0 119.8 124.9 129.9 134.8% change y-o-y 9.4 0.3 3.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 0.0 -1.2 10.4 1.0 3.1 3.2

THAILANDAerospace 30.3 102.4 103.4 106.2 111.3 116.3 122.0% change y-o-y 3.5 1.0 2.7 4.8 4.5 4.9 - -30.6 93.7 -0.8 3.6 4.8

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 102.4 103.1 105.5 109.9 115.1 120.9% change y-o-y 3.5 0.7 2.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 - -34.5 24.4 -0.8 3.4 5.0

TOTAL 30 102.4 103.4 106.1 111.2 116.2 121.9% change y-o-y 3.5 1.0 2.7 4.8 4.5 4.9 - -31.9 83.0 -0.8 3.6 4.8

VIETNAMAerospace 30.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8% change y-o-y 12.4 7.0 0.9 5.6 6.0 5.7 - - -37.6 -46.6 5.0 5.2

Ships, rolling stock, etc. 30 less 30.3 155.3 166.1 173.7 186.5 198.1 208.8% change y-o-y 12.4 7.0 4.6 7.4 6.2 5.4 - - 19.9 -0.3 6.1 4.9

TOTAL 30 155.2 166.0 173.6 186.4 198.0 208.8% change y-o-y 12.4 7.0 4.6 7.4 6.2 5.4 - - 19.9 -0.3 6.1 4.9

Asia Pacific: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100


Aerospace



ASIA PACIFICAerospace 30.3 174.8 180.5 191.5 203.1 214.8 226.6

% change y-o-y 5.2 3.3 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.5 2.9 7.4 12.0 6.4 5.3 5.3


TOTAL 30 176.4 186.1 198.1 210.4 223.0 235.7% change y-o-y 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 7.2 2.7 8.7 8.6 6.0 5.4


WORLDAerospace 30.3 154.0 158.3 176.3 186.6 195.1 204.0

% change y-o-y 6.9 2.8 11.3 5.9 4.5 4.6 1.4 1.6 6.8 2.4 5.8 4.3


TOTAL 30 153.1 159.3 172.8 182.2 190.7 199.5% change y-o-y 6.0 4.0 8.5 5.4 4.7 4.7 3.3 1.5 6.6 3.7 5.4 4.4


Asia Pacific: Other means of transport Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100


World Detailed outputNACE 30 Value Added Index, 2005=100

Documents

Aerospace - Oxford Economics · Aerospace 2 Global Industry Forecasts: Summer 2013 Forecast overview Weaker-than-expected start to 2013… Dragged down by adverse developments in