Aff Food Prices DA 7WK

8/14/2019 Aff Food Prices DA 7WK

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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors20121/34


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AFF: HIGH PRICS !AD

Hi"# $ood %rices c&'se (#e R'ssi&n econo)* (o ('rn in+&rd &nd dec,ine - cons')er %ress're&nd in$,&(ionDo.,&(o. 11 writing correspondent for the Russia Now section of the Telegraph, sponsored by the Rossiyskaya Gazeta (Dmitry, eb !", !#$$,http%&&www'telegraph'co'uk&sponsored&russianow&business&)*)+*&Riseinfoodpricescausingma-orconcernsinRussia'html./01

2s Russia emerges from the it now faces more traditional foes, with higher food prices, and capital inflowscreating speculati3e bubblesThe worst of the crunch may be o3er, but as the consumer4s basket will tell you, Russia4s economic health facesa further relapse'5n !#$#, inflation was 'pc, after being in double digits for more than two decades' 6ut the price of the monthly basket of goods usedto define the po3erty le3el rose !!pc, to !,7!7 rubles (8"".'9The reappearance of inflation could derail Russia4s economic reco3ery as it hits the Russian consumer4s pocketdirectly' :ith oil prices e;pected to be more or less flat in !#$$, it will be the strength of internal consumption that will set thepace for economic growth this year,< said 2le;ey =oisee3, chief economist at >T6 0apital'9 The rise in food prices is the ma-or concern and part of the current global upward trend, but there is relati3elylittle the authorities can do about it'enezuela' 6ut crude oil production has fallen off a steep !" percent in the last eight years to !'" million barrels aday from )'* million barrels a day in !##*' 2t the same time, =e;icans are consuming much more of their own oil' :ithin a decade, =e;ico could be a net oil importer,

according to a report by the /ames 6aker 5nstitute' That could hobble the countryPs economic growth' The problem is not that the country has runout' Geologically speaking, therePs plenty to be e;cited about, particularly offshore in the Gulf of =e;ico, where1eme;, the state oil company, estimates there are !M billion oil eEui3alent barrels' The issue is years of bad law, and thecon3ersion of 1eme; into a milking cow for political patronage and go3ernment re3enue' H3en if 1eme; disco3ers a humongous new Gulf field, the =e;ican

constitution forbids it from sharing ownership of the hydrocarbons with foreign companies, which ha3e thenecessary knowhow but seek such profit incenti3e in highrisk pro-ects' 0ompanies behind the booms in6razil, 0anada and the Cnited tates en-oy such profit rights (=e;ico will award new contracts for oilfield de3elopment in the current, moreconstrained fashion ne;t Tuesday.' 2s for 1eme; itself, it is so bloated and hobbled by patronageinduced e;penses that ne;t to it, the hollowedout 1D>2 of @ugo 0ha3ezP

>enezuela can look like a sleek and disciplined operation' tephen /ohnson of the 0enter for trategic and 5nternational tudies calls for a housecleaning' Q5n a pri3atecorporation, re3enues would be rein3ested in field maintenance and e;ploration leading to greater producti3ity,Q he told us' 5n order to set things right, Qthe constitutionshould be amended, 1eme; taken out of the go3ernment budget, and the company should be run like a forprofit enterprise that pays WonlyX its fair share of ta;es'Q /ohnsonsaid% Then its e;ecuti3es could make decisions on the basis of whatPs good for the company and its mission, 3ersus whatPs needed to fund the go3ernment' 2re such changes inthe cardsS Ine indication will be who wins /uly $ presidential elections' The leading candidate, HnriEue 1ena Nieto, supports a constitutional change and structural reformsthat could allow reser3esharing -oint3enture deals with foreign companies' o too does competitor /osefina >azEuez =ota' The leftist candidate, 2ndres =anuel opezIbrador, 3ows to keep 1eme; largely as is' ?et e3en under 1ena Nieto, we may not be talking wholesale reform' The 1R5, his party, is reliant on organized labor, especially theoil union, which is embedded in 1eme;, and likely to block any shift that could -eopardize its perks and perch'

A,( c&'se (o (#e econo)* &nd s(&6i,i(* - dr'"sC&,d+e,, 11(@uman H3ents Inline, Hditor of the an Diego CnionTribunePs unday Q5nsightQ section, 9Drug :ar 2llies,< $$&!7&$$,http%&&www'humane3ents'com&!##+&$$&!7&drugwarallies&.&&10

5t4s -ust as clear that =e;ico and the Cnited tates share an urgent national security imperati3e' Drug cartels threatenthe rule of law in =e;ico, a country that shares an $,##mile border with the Cnited tates' eft unchecked, theymight ultimately imperil =e;ico4s political stability and economic de3elopment' 2nd, as noted, =e;ico is either the source or thetransshipment point for M# percent of all narcotics entering the Cnited tates' The 3iolence and gang warfare spawned by the drug tradeha3e long since crossed the C''=e;ico border right along with the tons of drugs coming from =e;ico' 5f e3er twocountries shared a common enemy, it4s =e;ico and the Cnited tates against the drug cartels that are a scourge to both nations' The common C''=e;ico strategy and -ointenforcement efforts represented by the =erida 5nitiati3e are desperately needed and long o3erdue'

BBB!RA>I=


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AFF: C =W

cono)* &( &,, (i)e ,o+sRe'(ers 7/2 (!#$!, 9Hconomists cut 6razil !#$! growth 3iew to !'#" percent,< http%&&www'reuters'com&article&!#$!+!&usbrazileconomysur3eyidC6RH7$#J)!#$!#+#!&&=GD.

(Reuters. Hconomists cut their forecasts for economic growth in 6razil this year for the eighth straight week, to

!'#" percent from !'$ percent, a central bank sur3ey showed on =onday' The outlook for 6razilPs benchmark 5102 inflation ratein !#$! eased to *'M) from *'M" percent a week earlier, according to the sur3ey, which tracks weekly forecasts of the mostwidely watched economic

indicators in 6razil' The worldPs No'7 economy grew a slowerthane;pected #'! percent in the first Euarter from thefourth Euarter last year as the nationPs businesses, faced with a decline in global demand and higher labor costs, cut back one;pansion and in3estments' ower inflation should lead to further interest rate cuts, the economists said' The countryPs benchmarkinterest rate is e;pected to end this year at an alltime low of +'" percent, down from the current '" percent and unchangedfrom last weekPs forecasts, rising back to M percent by end!#$)' The sur3eyPs results are the median forecast of analysts polled by the central bank atabout $## financial institutions' The central bank targets inflation of *'" percent annually, with a tolerance range of plus or minus ! percentage points'2nalysts foresee prices rising "'"# percent by the end of ne;t year, unchanged from last weekPs prediction' 0onsumer prices were seen rising #'$+ percentin /une from the pre3ious month' 6razilPs national statistics agency 56GH will release official inflation figures for /une on /uly 7'

cono)* #&s ,os( &,, )o)en(')For6es 7/3 (!#$!, 96razil, osing =omentum,< http%&&www'forbes'com&sites&kenrapoza&!#$!+)&brazillosingmomentum&&&=GD.6razil has lost its momentum' 5f it e3er had any following a dismal #'! percent print in the national GD1 in thefirst Euarter'In Tuesday, 6razil industrial production figures showed that there are no signs of a reco3ery-ust yet inatin 2merica4s largest economy'2 mi; of poorly timed monetary and fiscal policy decisionspoured into a poor globaleconomyhas been nothing short of a cocktail full of wrong' 5ndustrial production fell below e;pectations againin =ay,dropping #'M percent month o3er month (seasonally ad-usted figures. while market e;pectations were for around a #') percentto #'7 percent contraction' In a yearly comparison, 51 mo3ed further down, to *') percent year o3er year from )'" percent in 2pril and !')percent in =arch'?eartodate industrial production has already dropped !' percent' 2ll of this with historically low interestrates of -ust '" percent for the benchmark elic rate and a return to !##style stimulus for some sectors of the economy, namely automoti3e' ast

=onday, 5tau Cnibanco lowered their GD1 forecast to ! percent from ) percent' Harlier in the year, inance =inisterGuido =antega said the economy would grow at * percent' Then by the end of the first Euarter, =antega said thathe4d be happy with !'" percent growth,eEual to that of !#$$ GD1' Cnless 6razil gets a huge bounce in the third andfourth Euarter, 6razil4s !#$! GD1 will likely underperform !#$$Ys'


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AFF: DC=I I;

!r&Ei,i&n econo)ic dec,ine ine.i(&6,es#&do+ econo)*WA== SR 8URA= 7


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AFF: US C

US econ ke* (o !r&Ei, &nd Meico6o(# dro%%in" no+MAR WACH 792012(:all t' /rnl =arket :atch, 6razil, =e;ico stocks fall with the C'' market, http%&&www'marketwatch'com&story&brazilme;icostocksfallwiththeusmarket!#$!#+#7.

6razilian and =e;ican stocks fell riday after a report from the C'', a key trading partner, showed modest growthlast month, adding to worries the global economy has hit the brakes'6razil4s 5bo3espa6R%6>1 $'+"U fell $'Uto "",)+, on track to snap a fi3eday winning streak' Transportation, health ser3ices and retail stocks dragged onthe inde;' 6!: 0ompanhia Global do >are-o Ird 6R%6TI:) 7'!)U , an online retailer, fell "'*U' @omebuilder Gafisa 6R%G2) "'*)U lost *'7U, followed by a steelcompany ==[ =ineracao e =etalicos 6R%==[=) 7'#*U , contributing to the 5bo3espa loss'

The C'' abor Department said the economy added #,### -obs in /une,l while analysts polled by=arket:atch e;pected growth of $##,### -obs' The Z1 "## 1[ #'M*U tumbled $'!U, e;tending declines from Thursday4s session when policyeasing from three central banks underscored challenges facing the global economy' Read more on -obs'

=e;ico4s 510 inde;=[%510 #'"!U fell#'!U to )M,M*M, losing for a third session, with consumer durables, process industries and industrial sectorsweighing on the inde;' hares of Desarolladora @ome; =[%@I=H[ *')7U lost )')U, among the worst on the 510, and Crbi Desarollos Crbanos =[%CR65 *'++U slipped!'"U' hares of the large tortilla manufacturer Gruma =[%GRC=26 #'M#U limited the 5104s loss and gained $'+U'


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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors20121


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2AC I= IMPAC UR

Hi"#er oi, %rices incre&se $ood %rices(#e i)%&c( is +or,d+ide ci.i, 'nres(Sc#erer 11writer for the t' /oseph News 1ress (Ray, 9C'' food prices stable amid inflation in other nations,< t' /oseph News from t' /oseph, =I, * ebruary!#$$, 1roEuest, D2% 7&!M&!#$!&&/HN2RT.

2ccording to rederick 23enue 2pple =arket owner=ike Decker, grocery stores ha3e seen a rise in

transportation costs, which is reflected in the purchase prices for food retailers across the C'' The Cnited tatesboasts cheaper food when compared with prices in other nations, a farm organization professed this week' That was one messagedeli3ered riday afternoon in obser3ance of Thank 2 armer :eek, which starts unday' The 6uchanan 0ounty arm 6ureau sponsored a fourhour promotional e3ent at therederick 6oule3ard 2pple =arket in celebration' The =issouri arm 6ureau partners in the recognition' 6uchanan 0ounty arm 6ureau 1resident Ron @itchings referred to

federal go3ernment research that shows the2merican consumer spends about $# percent of disposable income on food' Thatcompares with other countries, where higher percentages of disposable income are spent on food' Rising foodprices ha3e been pegged as a contributor to the political unrest in Hgypt , for instance' QThe C'' is 3ery fortunate to ha3e the foodsupply that we do,Q =r' @itchings said' Q=ost of the 2merican people arenPt hungry, unlike the rest of the world'Q 2 single 2merican farmer can now supply enough food andfiber for $"" people, he said, compared to a ratio of one farmer pro3iding for +) people in $M+#' The nation can still brag of its ability to pro3ide an affordable, abundant and

safe supply of food, he added' ?et the future course of 2merican food prices remains unknown, =r' @itchings admitted' The specterof food inflation is a definite worry' Q:here itPs going to go, who knowsSQ he said' QTherePs always a concern forthat'Q 1rocessing, production, transportation and ad3ertising costs all factor into food prices' upply anddemandboth dri3e the price of commodities' Q5tPs -ust one of those things we ha3e to deal with,Q =r' @itchings said of the cycle' Despite the uncertainty,the bureau is optimistic that food prices will not drastically escalate' Q5 donPt see a big increase in the cost of food,Q =r' @itchings said' Q@opefully wePll be able to keep food

prices down'Q >ariables such as grain prices that are somewhat higher but not e;cessi3e and the dairy industryPs re3ersal of losses, both assist in the positi3e outlook'Reliance on technology should also help increase production, =r' @itchings added' 6ob Jelly, agriculture business specialist for Cni3ersityH;tensionPs t' /oseph office, belie3es food prices are headed upward and linked to energy' 1ackaging , for instance,reEuires petroleum' Q5t depends on what oil does and what the middleman takes,Q =r' Jelly said' QThe energyprice is the biggest influence'Q ike =r' @itchings, he agrees that the C'' has a decided global ad3antage in thelower amount of disposable income spent on food' 1atrick :esthoff, director of the ood and 2gricultural 1olicy Research 5nstitute at theCni3ersity of =issouri, said C'' food prices in December were only $'" percent higher than the pre3ious year' Grain and other commodity prices ha3esharply risen in recent months and contributed to sudden food price hikes in many nations , =r':esthoff said'5tPs ser3ing as one reason for the ci3il unrest that has surfaced around the world , he added' Qood price inflationhas been greatest in countries where diets are hea3ily dependent on wheat and corn, and where go3ernmentfood subsidies ha3e been reduced for budgetary reasons,Q=r' :esthoff said' The C'N' ood and 2gricultureIrganization saidThursday its food price inde; for /anuary reached !)$ points the highest le3el registered since$MM#, when the inde; began' There are no signs that the increase in world food prices will abate , an 2I economist said

#e i)%&c( is n'c,e&r +&rCRI!! 2010 (/ulian, /ulian 0ribb is a science communicator, -ournalist and editor of se3eral newspapers and books' @is published work includes o3er +,###newspaper articles, $,### broadcasts, and three books and has recei3ed )! awards for science, medical, agricultural and business -ournalism' @e was Director, National

2wareness, for 2ustraliaPs science agency, 05RI, foundation president of the 2ustralian cience 0ommunicators, and originated the 0G52RPs uture @ar3est strategy' @e hasworked as a newspaper editor, science editor for QThe 2ustralian Qand head of public affairs for 05RI' @e runs his own science communication consultancy, 9The comingfamine% the global food crisis and what we can do to a3oid it,< p' !7.

This is the most likely means by which the coming famine will affect all citizens of Harth , both through the direct conseEuences of refugeefloods for recei3ing countries and throughthe effect on global food prices and the cost to public re3enues of redressing the problem'0oupled with this is the risk of wars breaking out o3er local disputes about food , land, and water and the dangers that thema-or military powers may be sucked into these 3ortices, that smaller nations newly nucleararmed may becomeembroiled, and that shock wa3es propagated by these conflicts will -ar the global economy and disrupt trade,sending food prices into a fresh spiral' 5ndeed, an increasingly credible scenario for :orld :ar 555 isnot so much aconfrontation of superpowers and their allies as a festering, selfperpetuating chain of resource conflicts dri3en by the widening gap

between foodand energy supplies and peoplesP need to secure them '


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: I= FD CRISIS

Hi"# oi, %rices res',( in #i"#er $ood %rices (#&( e&cer6&(es %o,i(ic&, (ension in (#e Midd,e&s(cono)is( 112merican news magazine () =arch !#$$, 9The !#$$ oil shock,< from the 1rint edition, http%&&www'economist'com&node&$!$++*, D2%+&$&!#$!&&/HN2RT.

6y contrast, the biggest risk in the emerging world is inaction' Dearer oil will stoke inflation, especially throughhigher food pricesand food still accounts for a large part of people4s spending in countries like 0hina, 6raziland 5ndia'True, central banks ha3e been raising interest rates, but they ha3e tended to be tardy' =onetaryconditions arestill too loose, and inflation e;pectations ha3e risen' Cnfortunately, too many go3ernments inemerging markets ha3e tried to Euell inflation and reduce popular anger by subsidising the prices of both foodand fuel' Not only does this dull consumers4 sensiti3ity to rising prices, it could be e;pensi3e for thego3ernments concerned' 5t will stretch 5ndia4soptimistic new budget(see article.' 6ut the biggest danger lies in the=iddle Hastitself,where subsidies of food and fuel are omnipresent and where politicians are increasing them toEuell unrest' uel importers, such as Hgypt, face a 3icious, bankrupting, spiral of higher oil prices and e3erbiggersubsidies' The answer is to ditch such subsidies and aim help at the poorest, but no 2rab ruler is likely to propose such reforms right now'2t its worst, thedanger is circular, with dearer oil and political uncertainty feeding each other' H3en if that is a3oided, theshortterm prospects for the world economy are shakier than many realise ' 6ut there could be a sil3er lining% the rest of the worldcould at long last deal with its 3ulnerability to oil and the =iddle Hast' The todo list is wellknown, from in3esting in the infrastructure for electric 3ehicles to pricing carbon'The $M+#s oil shocks transformed the world economy' 1erhaps a !#$$ oil shock will do the sameat less cost'
http://www.economist.com/node/18281774,mhttp://www.economist.com/node/18281774,m


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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors20121/34hanging on to the lower rungs of the global economic ladder risk losing their grip entirely' This can contribute and it has to re3olutions and uphea3al'2lready in !#$$, the C'N' ood 1rice 5nde; has eclipsed its pre3iousalltime global highF as of =arch it had climbed for eight consecuti3e months' :ith this yearPs har3estpredicted to fall short, with go3ernments in the =iddle Hast and 2frica teetering as a result of the price spikes,and with an;ious markets sustaining one shock after another, food has Euickly become the hidden dri3er of

world politics'2nd crises like these are going to become increasingly common' The new geopolitics of food looks

a whole lot more 3olatile and a whole lot more contentious than it used to' carcity is the new norm'Cntil recently,sudden price surges -ust didnPt matter as much, as they were Euickly followed by a return to the relati3ely lowfood prices that helped shape the political stability of the late !#th century across much of the globe' 6ut now

both the causes and conseEuences are ominously different' 5n many ways, this is a resumption of the !##+!##food crisis, which subsided not because the world somehow came together to sol3e its grain crunch once andfor all, but because the Great Recession tempered growth in demand e3en as fa3orable weather helped farmersproduce the largest grain har3est on record'@istorically, price spikes tended to bealmost e;clusi3ely dri3en byunusual weather a monsoon failure in 5ndia, a drought in the former o3iet Cnion, a heat wa3e in the C'' =idwest' uch e3ents werealways disrupti3e, butthankfully infreEuent' Cnfortunately, todayPs price hikes are dri3en by trends that are bothele3ating demand and making it more difficult to increase production% among them, a rapidly e;pandingpopulation, cropwithering temperature increases, and irrigation wells running dry' Hach night, there are!$M,### additional people to feed at the global dinner table' =ore alarming still, the world is losing its ability to

soften the effect of shortages' 5n response to pre3ious price surges, the Cnited tates, the worldPs largest grainproducer, waseffecti3ely able to steer the world away from potential catastrophe' rom the mid!#th century until$MM", the Cnited tates had either grain surpluses or idle cropland that could be planted to rescue countries introuble' :hen the 5ndian monsoon failed in $M7", for e;ample, 1resident yndon /ohnsonPs administration shippedonefifth of the C'' wheat crop to 5ndia, successfully sta3ing off famine' :e canPt do that anymoreF the safetycushion is gone'ThatPs why the food crisis of !#$$ is for real, and why it may bring with it yet more bread riotscum political re3olutions' :hat if the uphea3als that greeted dictatorsAine el2bidine 6en2li in Tunisia, @osni=ubarak in Hgypt, and=uammar aladdafi in ibya(a country that imports M# percent of its grain. are not the end of thestory, but the beginning of itS Get ready, farmers and foreign ministers alike, for a new era in which world foodscarcity increasingly shapes global politics'

Risk o$ con$,ic( is #i"# crisis $or s%&rse ,&nd $or $ood ens'res in(ern&, con$,ic( %os(%rice

#ikes!ro+n 11president of Harth 1olicy 5nstitute (ester R, 9The New Geopolitics of ood,< oreign 1olicy, =ay&/une !k$$,http%&&www'foreignpolicy'com&articles&!#$$*&!"&theLnewLgeopoliticsLofLfoodSpagefull,D2% +&$&!#$!&&/HN2RT.

The potential for conflict and not -ust o3er water is high' =anyof the land deals ha3e been made in secret, andin most cases, the land in3ol3ed was already in use by 3illagers when it was sold or leased' Iften those alreadyfarming the land were neither consulted about nor e3en informed of the new arrangements' 2ndbecause theretypically are no formal land titles in many de3elopingcountry 3illages, the farmers who lost their land ha3e hadlittle backing to bring their cases to court'Reporter /ohn >idal, writing in 6ritainPs Ibser3er, Euotes Nyikaw Ichalla from HthiopiaPsGambella region% QThe foreign companies are arri3ing in large numbers, depri3ing people of land they ha3e used for centuries' There is no consultationwith the indigenous population' The deals are done secretly' The only thing the local people see is people coming with lots of tractors to in3ade their

lands'Q ocal hostility toward such land grabs is the rule, not the e;ception' 5n !##+, as food prices were starting torise, 0hina signed an agreement with the 1hilippines to lease !'" million acres of land slated for food crops that

would be shipped home' Ince word leaked, the public outcry much of it from ilipino farmers forced =anila tosuspend the agreement' 2 similar uproar rocked =adagascar, where a outh Jorean firm , Daewoo ogistics, hadpursued rights to more than ) million acres of land' :ord of the deal helped stoke a political furor that toppledthe go3ernment and forced cancellation of the agreement ' 5ndeed, few things are more likely to fuel insurgenciesthan taking land from people' 2gricultural eEuipment is easily sabotaged' 5f ripe fields of grain are torched,they burn Euickly'Not only are these deals risky, but foreign in3estors producing food in a country full ofhungry people face another political Euestion of how to get the grain out' :ill 3illagers permit trucks laden

with grain headed for port cities to proceed when they themsel3es may be on the 3erge of star3ationS Thepotential for political instability in countries where 3illagers ha3e lost their land and their li3elihoods is high'0onflicts could easily de3elopbetween in3estor and host countries'
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=fullhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=full


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And ric#%oor co'n(r* di.ide ens'res con$,ic( i( cre&(es &n e.er*co'n(r*$ori(se,$%#i,oso%#*!ro+n 11president of Harth 1olicy 5nstitute (ester R, 9The New Geopolitics of ood,< oreign 1olicy, =ay&/une !k$$,http%&&www'foreignpolicy'com&articles&!#$$*&!"&theLnewLgeopoliticsLofLfoodSpagefull,D2% +&$&!#$!&&/HN2RT.

2nd this rich countrypoor country di3ide could growe3en more pronounced and soon' This /anuary, a new

stage in the scramble among importing countries to secure food began to unfold when outh Jorea , which imports+# percent of its grain, announced that it was creating a new publicpri3ate entity that will be responsible foracEuiring part of this grain' :ith aninitial office in 0hicago, the plan is to bypass the large international tradingfirms by buying grain directly from C'' farmers ' 2s the Joreans acEuire their own grain ele3ators, they may well sign multiyeardeli3ery contracts with farmers, agreeing to buy specified Euantities of wheat, corn, or soybeans at a fi;ed price' Ither importers will notstand idly by as outh Jorea tries to tie up a portion of the C'' grain har3est e3en before it gets to market ' Theenterprising Joreans may soon be -oined by 0hina, /apan, audi 2rabia, and other leading importers' 2lthoughouth JoreaPs initial focus is the Cnited tates, far and away the worldPs largest grain e;porter, it may later consider brokeringdeals with 0anada, 2ustralia, 2rgentina, and other ma-or e;porters' This is happening -ust as 0hina may be onthe 3erge of entering the C'' market as a potentially massi3e importer of grain' :ith 0hinaPs $'* billion increasingly affluent consumers starting to compete with C'' consumers for the C'' grain har3est, cheap food ,seen by many as an 2merican birthright, may be coming to an end'No one knows where this intensifying competition forfood supplies will go, but the world seems to be mo3ing away from the international cooperation that e3ol3ed o3er se3eral decades following :orld :ar 55 to an e3erycountryforitself philosophy' ood nationalism may help securefood supplies for indi3idual affluent countries, but it does little to enhance world food security' 5ndeed, the lowincomecountries that host land grabs or import grain will likely see their food situation deteriorate'

More e.idence #i"#er $ood %rices &((&c#ed (o decre&sin" $ood s'%%,* ens'res rio(s &nd (#eco,,&%se o$ (#e ",o6&, econo)*!ro+n 11president of Harth 1olicy 5nstitute (ester R, 9The New Geopolitics of ood,< oreign 1olicy, =ay&/une !k$$,http%&&www'foreignpolicy'com&articles&!#$$*&!"&theLnewLgeopoliticsLofLfoodSpagefull,D2% +&$&!#$!&&/HN2RT.

:ith grain stocks low and climate 3olatility increasing, the risks arealso increasing' :e arenow so close to theedge that a breakdown in the food system could come at any time' 0onsider, for e;ample,what would ha3ehappened if the !#$# heat wa3e that was centered in =oscow had insteadbeen centered in 0hicago' 5n round numbers

the *# percent drop in RussiaPs hopedfor har3est of roughly $## million tons cost the world *# million tons ofgrain, but a *# percent drop in the far larger C'' grain har3est of *## million tons would ha3e cost $7# milliontons'The worldPs carryo3er stocks of grain (the amount in the bin when the new har3est begins. would ha3e dropped to -ust "! days of consumption'This le3el would ha3e been not only the lowest on record, but also well below the 7!day carryo3er that set the stage for the !##+!## tripling of world

grain prices' Then whatS There would ha3e been chaos in world grain markets' Grain prices would ha3e climbed offthe charts' ome graine;porting countries, trying to hold downdomestic food prices, would ha3e restricted or e3en

banned e;ports, as they did in !##+ and !##'The T> news would ha3e been dominatednot by the hundreds of fires inthe Russian countryside, butby footage of food riots in lowincome grainimporting countries and reports ofgo3ernments falling as hunger spread out of control' Iile;porting countries that import grain would ha3e beentrying to barter oil for grain, and lowincome grain importers would ha3e lost out':ith go3ernments topplingand confidence in the world grain market shattered, the global economy could ha3e started to unra3el' :e maynot always be so lucky'2t issue now is whether the world can go beyond focusing on the symptoms of the deteriorating food situation andinstead attack the underlying causes' 5f we cannot produce higher crop yields with less water and conser3e fertile soils,many agricultural areas will cease to be 3iable'2nd this goes far beyond farmers' 5f we cannot mo3e at wartimespeed to stabilize the climate, we may not be able to a3oid runaway food prices' 5f we cannot accelerate the shiftto smaller families and stabilize the world population sooner rather than later, the ranks of the hungry will almost certainly continue to e;pand' The time to act is now before the food crisis of !#$$ becomes the newnormal'

Risin" $ood %rices res',( in Wor,d W&r #ree &nd co,,&%ses (#e ",o6&, econo)* #is(oric&,c*c,es %ro.eDroke 3/14editor of the three times weekly =omentum trategies ReportF freEuently co3ers the current status of the economy (!#$!, 0lif,9Rising fuel costs and the ne;t Re3olution,< http%&&www'marketoracle'co'uk&2rticle))"M"'html, D2% +&$&!#$!&&/HN2RT.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=fullhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=fullhttp://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33595.htmlhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=fullhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=fullhttp://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33595.html


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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors201221/34The economic and political importance of high food prices can4t be underestimated'To take one e;ample, high foodprices were the catalyst for last year4s outbreak of re3olution in se3eral =iddle Hast countries' The region once knownas the ertile 0rescent is hea3ily dependent on imported grain and rising fuel costs contributed to theskyrocketing food prices which pro3oked the 2rab re3olts' 2nnia 0iezadlo, in her article 9et Them Hat 6read< in the =arch !),!#$$ issue of oreign 2ffairs wrote% 9If the top !# wheat importers for !#$#, almost half are =iddle Hastern countries' The list reads like a playbook of toppled and teetering regimes% Hgypt ($., 2lgeria (*., 5raE (+., =orocco (., ?emen ($)., audi 2rabia ($"., ibya ($7.,

Tunisia ($+.'< 5ndeed, high food costs ha3e long been a ma-or factor in fomenting popular re3olt' The renchRe3olutionof the late $+##s originated with a food shortage which caused a M# percent increase in the bread pricein $+M' Describing the buildup to the Reign of Terror in rance of $+M)M*, author usan Jerr wrote% 9or a time,local go3ernments attempted to impro3e distribution channels and moderate soaring prices' 2gainst this

backdrop of rumbling stomachs and wailing hungry children, the e;cesses and arrogance of the nobility andclergy strutted in sharp contrast'< This historical e3ent has an ob3ious parallel in today4s emphasis on the elite 9$percent< 3ersus the 9MM percent'


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HIGH PRICS !AD: CHIA WAR

Hi"# $ood %rices 'nder)ine Midd,e &s(ern s(&6i,i(* &nd c&'se USC#in& +&rR;A 2011 (George, N1 list candidate for the othians at the @olyrood elections in =ay, 91utting the bite on food production,< The cotsman, /an $*.T@H global ood :ars ha3e begun' 2t the start of /anuary, the CN ood and 2griculture Irganisation (2I. reported that world food prices had reacheda new high, surpassing the pre3ious record in !##, when there were riots in )# countries because people could not afford to eat' :ithin days of the 2I report, there were

riots in 2lgeria protesting at a doubling in the price of sugar and cooking oil' 2t the weekend, the rioting spread to normally docile Tunisia, resulting in more than )# deaths'5n Hgypt, where the price of bread has -umped !# per cent, the go3ernment is trying frantically to insulate itself from these protests by importing food from of all places Hthiopia' 2lso this week, onion traders at DelhiPs main 3egetable market went on strike in response to police raids on alleged hoarders' Doubledigit food inflation is makinglife hard for 5ndiaPs poor' Cnseasonal rains ha3e cut onion production sharply, making the lowly 3egetable as e;pensi3e as a mango' Inions are no -oking matter in 5ndia

where the opposition 6/1 is blaming the go3ernment for the crisis' The de3eloped world is not immune% food inflation in 6ritain hit record le3els at the end of !#$# and thatwas with the big supermarkets discounting hea3ily' 2merica will see doubledigit food inflation this year' :hatPs upS True, random bad weather is causing temporaryshortages' The terrible flooding in 2ustralia will add to the already e;orbitant e;port price of sugar' ires and drought in Russia ha3e wiped out nearly a third of the wheat

crop' 6ut the new food crisis is the result of more than the normal fluctuation in the climate' This time the problemis structural' ince the dawn of the industrial re3olution, continuous producti3ity gains ha3e ensured thatglobal food production outpaced population growth, gi3e or take the odd bout of bad weather' 2s a result, food costs ha3e always declined in realterms' 6ut sometime in the first decade of the !$st century we entered a phase where agricultural producti3itygains are unable to keep pace with demand' =eaning that real food costs are going to rise o3er the ne;t "# years' 6y how much is open to debate theCN estimates )#"# per cent' @igher food prices spell political trouble' 5n the CJ, they could push the 015 measure of inflation to more than * per centthis year, forcing the 6ank of Hngland to raise interest rates' 1ut that in your mortgage and smoke it' 5n North 2frica, food riots could bring downsecular go3ernments and hand the region o3er to fundamentalists' Rampant food inflation in 0hina could force

6ei-ing to slam on the economic brakes' 6ut a 0hina that is not growing is a 0hina that could seek to di3ertpopular discontent with a bellicose foreign policy'


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HIGH PRICS !AD: MIDD= AS

Hi"#er $ood %rices ens're %o,i(ic&, ins(&6i,i(* in (#e Midd,e &s( i( K'ick,* esc&,&(es#ier 110ontributor to 2I :orld News (* ebruary !#$$, 92re Record ood 1rices ueling Global5nstabilityS


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HIGH PRICS !AD: AFRICA

Hi"# $ood %rices )&ke A$ric&n con$,ic( ,ike,* i( (#re&(ens %o,i(ic&, &nd soci&, s(&6i,i(*IRI e+s 2frican news agency (!! /une !kM, 92R502% 1rices keep food on the shel3es,< http%&&www'irinnews'org&Report&*M)#&2R5021riceskeepfoodontheshel3es,D2% 7&)#&!#$!&&/HN2RT.

2DD5 26262, !! /une !##M (5R5N. 2n increasing number of 2fricans li3ing in urban areas are finding it harder to putenough food on the table, the CN Hconomic 0ommission for 2frica (H02. has warned' QThe food crisis andshortages are still there in some 2frican countries,Q said 2dam Hlhiraika, H02 economic affairs officer' Q:e see WaXcrisis when we do not ha3e enough income to buy the food we need'Q Hlhiraika , coordinator of a team which prepared theH02Ps Hconomic Report on 2frica !##M, told 5R5N in 2ddis 2baba% Q:e ha3e less purchasing power' :e also still ha3efood shortages because many 2frican countries do not ha3e the capacity to respond to demand'Q Released on !=ay, the report, which was -ointly prepared by the H02 and the 2frican Cnion, is an assessment of the continent4s economic performance in !##' 5talso e;amines prospects for !##M' Q1astoralists in D-ibouti are disco3ering that sales of 3ital li3estock fetch 3ery little grain on the market, while in=ozambiEue and Cganda, rural farmers can hardly afford to buy the seeds and fertilizers they need to grow their family4s food, let alone reap the benefit

of high food prices,Q the report said'2cross 2frica, food commodity prices are likely to rise in the ne;t $# years, e3enthough a decline is e;pected in !##M and !#$# as supply and demand respond to high prices resulting from theglobal economic recession' Q2frica is one of the most affected regions by the high food prices,Q the H02 noted'Qood prices peaked in /une !## and declined by more than "# percent on a3erage during the second half of

the year' 2t the end of !##, they stood at the le3el of !##" but were still considerably higher than the !###le3el'Q 2ccording to the report, the decline in world market prices had slowly worked its way into domestic prices inmany de3eloping countries'Qtill we ha3e food shortages in many 2frican countries because of drought and conflict situations,Q Hlhiraika said'Hmergency aid To a3ert the conseEuences, emergency aid was needed in many countries, including those in Hast 2frica' QThe recent food crisisand looming star3ation are threats to political and social stability, especially in east and west 2frica and inconflict countries,Q the report warned'

'c,e&r +&r/effreyDe'(sc#, Rabid Tiger 1ro-ect founder, professor of political science at New :orld Cni3ersity, No3ember $,2002, The Rabid TigerNewsletter, >ol' 55, No' M,http%&&www'rabidtigers'com&rtn&newsletter3!nM'html &&we do not endorse gendered language

The Rabid Tiger 1ro-ect belie3es that anuclear war is most likely to start in 2frica' 0i3il wars in the 0ongo (the country formerlyknown as Aaire.,Rwanda, omalia and ierra eone, and domestic instability in Aimbabwe, udan and othercountries, as well as occasional brushfire and other wars(thanks in part to 9national< borders that cut across tribal ones.turn

into a really nasty stew' :e43e got alltoo many rabid tigersand potential rabid tigers, whoare willing to push the buttonrather than risk being seen as wishywashy in the face of a mortal threat and o3erthrown' Geopolitically speaking,2frica is open range'>ery few countries in 2frica are beholden to any particular power' outh 2fricais a ma-or e;ception inthis respect not to mention in that she alsoprobably already has the 6omb' Thus, outside powers can more easily findclient states therethan, say, in Hurope where the political lines ha3e long since been drawn, or 2sia where many of the countries (0hina, 5ndia,/apan. are powers unto themsel3es and don4t need any 9help,< thank you' Thus,an 2frican war can attract outside in3ol3ement 3eryEuickly'If course, a pro;y war alone may not induce the Great 1owers to fight each other' 6utan 2frican nuclear strike can ignite amuch broader conflagration, if the other powers are interested in a fight' 0ertainly, such a strike would in the first place ha3ebeen facilitated by outside help financial, scientific, engineering, etc' 2frica is an ocean of troubled waters, and some people lo3e to go fishing'
http://www.irinnews.org/Report/84930/AFRICA-Prices-keep-food-on-the-shelveshttp://www.irinnews.org/Report/84930/AFRICA-Prices-keep-food-on-the-shelveshttp://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html%20/http://www.irinnews.org/Report/84930/AFRICA-Prices-keep-food-on-the-shelveshttp://www.irinnews.org/Report/84930/AFRICA-Prices-keep-food-on-the-shelveshttp://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html%20/


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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors20122olume ), 5ssue $, /anuary !k$#, 1ages **"*"$, cience Direct, D2% 7&)#&!#$!&&/HN2RT.

"' 5mplications2gricultural commodity price 3olatility negati3ely impacts all society by causing macroeconomicinstability, but particularly impacts the impo3erished that spend a large portion of their resources on food andfuel' ood prices are more 3olatile in de3eloping countries where people li3ing in po3erty de3ote o3er half oftheir income to food(6rown, $M#F enauer, !##.' The spillo3er effect of 3olatile food prices has renewed interest in the establishment of foodmarket restrictions' Recently, countries ha3e increased food subsidies, established price controls, and restrictede;ports' This tends to aggra3ate price 3olatility and spawns ma-or market inefficiencies' 1eople most

3ulnerable to the price 3olatility are those in countries that suffer both food deficits and import oil' =ost of the! lowincome countries with food deficits are also net oil importers(enauer, !##F Runge and enauer, !##+.'

Hi"# $ood %rices des(ro*s (#e 'r6&n %oor i( s%'rs rio(s &nd ens'res s('n(ed "ro+(# (#&(d&)&"es (o)orro+5s de.e,o%in" +or,d
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/14/food-price-inflation-world-bank-warning)JCPhttp://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/pubs/cp/cohen2008climate/cohenetal2008climate.pdf)JCPhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/14/food-price-inflation-world-bank-warning)JCPhttp://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/pubs/cp/cohen2008climate/cohenetal2008climate.pdf)JCP


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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors20122?/34are far from guaranteed':ith rising energy prices, farmers are paying much more for fertilisers, highyielding seeds,li3estock feed and transport'

ri""ers soci&, ins(&6i,i(* &nd .io,ence;on !r&'n 0? P#D in &"ric',('r&, econo)ics $ro) (#e Uni.ersi(* o$ Go((in"en Ger)&n*

Direc(or Gener&, (#e In(ern&(ion&, Food Po,ic* Rese&rc# Ins(i('(e LIFPRI (/oachim, /uly !M, 9TheoppositionPs opening remarks,< http%&&www'economist'com&debate&days&3iew&$""&&=GD.The surge in food prices is also a trigger for social and political unrest' 2s prices increase, the poor usuallysuffer silently for a while, while the middle class typically has the ability to organise, protest,and lobby' ince !##+, socialunrest related to high food prices has occurred in more than "# countries,with some e;periencing multiple occurrences anda high degree of 3iolence' Cnder current conditions, the effects of high food prices on humanity are largely negati3e'Now fundamental changes in trade policies, inbiofuel policies, increased in3estment in agriculture, more agriculturalscience and technology, sound social protection and nutrition action , and impro3ed go3ernanceof the food system atnational and global le3els are needed to allow people and countries to cope with and grow out of the foodprice crisis 'o far these needed actions ha3e not been forthcoming at sufficient scale'

#is o'(+ei"#s

A6'8&)&, ?=umia (acti3ist, radio -ournalist and former president of the 1hiladelphia 2ssociation of 6lack /ournalists&&-h. 92 uiet andDeadly >iolence< eptember $Mth, http%&&www'angelfire'com&az&catchphraze&mumiaswords'html5t has often been obser3ed that 2merica is a truly 3iolent nation, as shown by the thousands of cases of social and communal 3iolence that occurs daily inthe nation' H3ery year, some !#,### people are killed by others, and additional !#,### folks kill themsel3es' 2dd to this the nonlethal 3iolence that

2mericans daily inflict on each other, and we begin to see the tracings of a nation immersed in a fe3er of 3iolence' 6ut, as remarkable, andharrowing as this le3el and degree of 3iolence is, it is, by far, not the most 3iolent features of li3ing in the midstof the 2merican empire' :e li3e, eEually immersed, and to a deeper degree, in a nation that condones and ignores wideranging QstructuralP 3iolence, of a kind that destroys human life with a breathtaking ruthlessness' ormer =assachusetts prison official andwriter Dr' /ames Gilligan obser3es% 6y Qstructural 3iolenceQ 5 mean the increased rates of death and disability suffered by thosewho occupy the bottom rungs of society, as contrasted by those who are abo3e them' Those e;cess deaths (or at least ademonstrably large proportion of them. are a function of the class structureF and that structure is itself a product of societyPs collecti3e human choices,

concerning how to distribute the collecti3e wealth of the society' ] e3ery fifteen years, on the a3erage, as many people die becauseof relati3e po3erty as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused !)! million deaths F and e3ery single year, two to three

times as many people die from po3erty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the /ews o3er a si;year period' This is, ineffect, the eEui3alent of an ongoing, unending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide on the weakand poor e3ery year of e3ery decade, throughout the world'(Gilligan, /', =D, >iolence% Reflections In a National Hpidemic (New?ork% >intage, $MM7., $M!'. This form of 3iolence,not co3ered by any of the ma-oritarian, corporate, rulingclass protected media, is in3isibleto us and because of its in3isibility, all the more insidious'@ow dangerous is itreallyS Gilligan notes% WHX3ery fifteen years, on thea3erage, as many people die because of relati3e po3erty as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused !)! million deathsF and e3ery single year,two to three times as many people die from po3erty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide ofthe /ews o3er a si;year period' This is, in effect, the eEui3alent of an ongoing, unending, in fact accelerating,thermonuclear war, or genocide on the weak and poor e3ery year of e3ery decade, throughout the world ' WGilligan,p' $M7X :orse still, in a thoroughly capitalist society, much of that 3iolence became internalized, turned back on the elf, because, in a society based onthe priority of wealth, those who own nothing are taught to loathe themsel3es, as if something is inherently wrong with themsel3es, instead of the socialorder that promotes this selfloathing' This intense selfhatred was often manifested in familial 3iolence as when the husband beats the wife, the wifesmacks the son, and the kids fight each other' This 3icious, circular, and in3isible 3iolence, unacknowledged by the corporate media, uncriticized insubstandard educational systems, and un understood by the 3ery folks who suffer in its grips, feeds on the spectacular and more common forms of

3iolence that the system makes damn sure that we can recognize and must react to it' This fatal and systematic 3iolence may be calledThe :ar on the 1oor' 5t is found in e3ery country, submerged beneath the sands of history,buried, yet e3er present, asomnipotent as death'5n the struggles o3er the commons in Hurope, when the peasants struggled and lost their battles for their commonal lands(a precursor to similar struggles throughout 2frica and the 2mericas., this 3iolence was sanctified, by church and crown, as the PDi3ine Right of JingsP tothe spoils of class battle' cholars rances o;1i3en and Richard 2 0loward wrote, in The New 0lass :ar (1antheon, $M!&$M".% They did not losebecause landowners were immune to burning and preaching and rioting' They lost because the usurpations of owners were regularly defended by thelegal authority and the armed force of the state' 5t was the state that imposed increased ta;es or enforced the payment of increased rents, and e3icted or-ailed those who could not pay the resulting debts' 5t was the state that made lawful the appropriation by landowners of the forests, streams, andcommons, and imposed terrifying penalties on those who persisted in claiming the old rights to these resources' 5t was the state that freed serfs or

emancipated sharecroppers only to lea3e them landless' ("!. The QawQ, then, was a tool of the powerful to protect theirinterests, then, as now' 5t was a weapon against the poor and impo3erished,then, as now' 5t punished retail 3iolence, whileturning a blind eye to the wholesale 3iolence daily done by their class masters' The law was, and is, a tool ofstate power, utilized to protect the status Euo, no matter how oppressi3e that status was, or is' ystems are essentially
http://www.angelfire.com/az/catchphraze/mumiaswords.htmlhttp://www.angelfire.com/az/catchphraze/mumiaswords.html


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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors20122/34ways of doing things that ha3e concretized into tradition, and custom, without regard to the rightness of those ways' No system that causes thiskind of harm to people should be allowed to remain, based solely upon its time in e;istence' ystems mustser3e life, or be discarded as a threat and a danger to life' S'c# s*s(e)s )'s( %&ss &+&* so (#&( (#eir"re&( &nd (erri6,e .io,ence %&sses &+&* +i(# (#e)


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Food Prices DA UM 7 Week Seniors201231/34Global food prices are estimated to stay high at least in the short term until the ne;t har3ests in mid!#$$, whereby the size of the crops will be critical to

stabilise the international agricultural markets' urther supply shocks could result in higher food price 3olatilityFGenerally, the global food system is becoming more 3ulnerable to e;treme price mo3ements ' This is due to soaring fooddemand, a rising dependence on international trade to meet food needs and a growing demand for food commodities from other sectors such as energy'5n addition, climate change will lead to more freEuent e;treme weather conditions, affecting agricultural productionF

Rising food prices will continue to ha3e negati3e impacts on consumers, especially on poor households inde3eloping countries A ,on" %eriod o$ #i"# $ood %rices co',d &$$ec( econo)ic "ro+(# e.en in (#e

+or,dNs $&s("ro+in" econo)ies s'c# &s C#in& &nd Indi&' Real GD1 growth in 0hina and 5ndia is forecast to decline toM'7U and '*U in !#$$ respecti3ely, down from $#')U and M'+U in !#$#F

The new surge in international food prices has raised the global communityPs concern on a new food crisis andtriggered policy responses to stabilise the markets ' The HC planned in ebruary !#$$ to cut import duties on important agriculturalcommodities including wheat and barley as well as to allow additional sugar imports' Thailand, the worldPs largest rice e;porter,affirmed that it would maintain the countryPs !#$$ rice e;ports to the same le3el as in !#$#' 5n Hgypt, about"'#U of the countryPs bread is subsidised by the go3ernment '

Hi"# $ood %rices &re #'r(in" (#e econo)ic reco.er* - (#e* &re dr&+in" cons')er do,,&rs $ro)"ro+(# &re&sDo&ne 11 1eabody 2ward winning domestic correspondent for 06 (eth, =ay !#$$, 90ost of food and gas slowing C'' economic growth,

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