Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia

7/30/2019 Afghanistan after 2014: The Way Forward for Russia

1/21

Gcfognkstgn gctbr :=7


2/21

Kcrk ks g rbsbgrdo dbntbr gnl g c`rua c`r lbjgtb `n age`r kntbrngtk`ngh

p`hktkdgh gnl bd`nàkd kssubs. Obglbl jy \okbrry lb A`ntjrkgh skndb ktscùnlknf kn 7;6;, Kcrk ks g n`n-f`vbrnabntgh gnl g n`n-pr`ckt `rfgnkzgtk`n.

Gs gn knlbpbnlbnt tokni tgni, Kcrk sbts kts `wn rbsbgrdo gfbnlg, pujhksoknfkts cknlknfs rbfuhgrhy c`r g fh`jgh gulkbndb.

Vkto `cckdbs kn ]grks gnl Jrussbhs, Kcrk stgnls ùt gs `nb `c tob rgrb Crbndotokni tgnis t` ogvb p`sktk`nbl ktsbhc gt tob vbry obgrt `c Bur`pbgn lbjgtb.

Rsknf gn kntbrlksdkphkngry gppr`gdo, Kcrk jrknfs t`fbtobr p`hktkdgh gnlbd`nàkd lbdksk`n-agibrs, rbsbgrdobrs gnl kntbrngtk`nghhy rbn`wnblbxpbrts t` gnkagtb kts lbjgtbs gnl rbsbgrdo gdtkvktkbs.

\ob `pknk`ns bxprbssbl kn toks grtkdhb grb tob guto`rs gh`nb gnl l`

n`t rbc hbdt tob c c kd kgh vkbws c tobkr knst k tut k`ns.

Zusskg/NKT Dbntbr Ghh rkfots rbsbrvbl Kcrk ]grks, :=74

KTJN5 ;6?-:-43236-72?-4

KCZK:6 ZRB LB HG ]Z@DBTTK@N

626


3/21

7 Kcrk

Zusskb.Nbk.Sksk`ns

Zusskb.Nbk.Sksk`ns ks gn `nhknb d`hhbdtk`n `c grtkdhbs lblkdgtbl t` tobstuly `c Zusskg gnl `tobr c`rabr T`vkbt stgtbs (Jbhgrus, Rirgknb,A`hl`vg, Grabnkg, Fb`rfkg, Gzbrjgkegn, Igzgiostgn, Rzjbikstgn,\uriabnkstgn, \gekikstgn gnl Iyrfyzstgn). Vrkttbn jy hbglknf bxpbrts,tobsb p`hkdy-`rkbntbl pgpbrs lbgh wkto strgtbfkd, p`hktkdgh gnl bd`nàkdkssubs.

\oks d`hhbdtk`n upo`hls Kcrks stgnlgrls `c qughkty (blktknf gnlgn`nyaùs pbbr-rbvkbw).

Kc yù wkso t` jb n`tkckbl `c updàknf pujhkdgtk`ns (`r rbdbkvbgllktk`ngh knc`ragtk`n), phbgsb b-agkh5 knc`.russkb.nbkMkcrk.`rf

]rbvkùs pujhkdgtk`ns

N. ]ùssbni`vg, "Zusskg's Bgstbrn Bnbrfy ]`hkdy5 G Doknbsb ]uzzhbc`r Z`snbct," Zusskb.Nbk.Sksk`ns , N`. 6=, Gprkh :=74.

Z. Jùrfb`t, "Zusskg-\uriby5 G Zbhgtk`nsokp Togpbl jy Bnbrfy,"Zusskb.Nbk.Sksk`ns , N`. 3;, Agrdo :=74.

G. Abolk gnl To. [bnkibybcc, F`vbrn`rs, @hkfgrdos, gnl Tkh`vkik5 @khgnl ]`wbr kn Zusskg, Zusskb.Nbk.Sksk`ns, N`. 3?, Cbjrugry :=74.
http://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrirnv70poussenkovarosneftengapril2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrirnv70poussenkovarosneftengapril2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrirnv70poussenkovarosneftengapril2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrirnv70poussenkovarosneftengapril2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussiaturkeyengmarch2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussiaturkeyengmarch2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussiaturkeyengmarch2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/?page=contribution-detail&id=7521&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=contribution-detail&id=7521&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=contribution-detail&id=7521&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=contribution-detail&id=7521&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=contribution-detail&id=7521&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/?page=contribution-detail&id=7521&id_provenance=97http://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifriremibourgeotrussiaturkeyengmarch2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrirnv70poussenkovarosneftengapril2013.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/downloads/ifrirnv70poussenkovarosneftengapril2013.pdf


4/21

B. Ttbpgn`vg / RT, Zusskg, Gcfognkstgn

: Kcrk

Guto`r

Lr. Bigtbrkng Ttbpgn`vg ks g hbgl rbsbgrdobr gnl obgl `c tob ]bgdbgnl D`nchkdt Ttulkbs Rnkt gt tob Knstktutb `c V`rhl Bd`này gnlKntbrngtk`ngh Zbhgtk`ns (KABA@) kn A`sd`w. Crà :==6 t` :==;, sobwgs `n hbgvb crà KABA@ t` lkrbdt tob Grabl D`nchkdts gnl D`nchkdtAgngfbabnt ]r`frga gt Tt`dio`ha Kntbrngtk`ngh ]bgdb Knstktutb

(TK]ZK). Tob ks tob guto`r `c skx j`ìs

, kndhulknf \brr`rksa knGsyaabtrkdgh D`nchkdt5 Klb`h`fkdgh gnl Ttrudturgh Gspbdts (@xc`rl

Rnkvbrskty ]rbss, :==?) gnl \ob Z`hb `c Khhkdkt Lruf Jusknbss kn tob]`hktkdgh Bd`này `c D`nchkdts gnl \brr`rksa (A`sd`w, :==2). Tobsbrvbs `n blkt`rkgh j`grls `c eùrnghs5 \brr`rksa gnl ]`hktkdghSk`hbndb, Kntbrngtk`ngh Eùrngh `c D`nchkdt gnl Sk`hbndbgnl TbdurktyKnlbx, gnl `n tob bxpbrt pgnbh `c Fh`jgh ]bgdb Knlbxgnl `n Glvks`ryj`grl `c Tbdurkty kn \rgnsktk`n pr`frgaab, H`nl`n Tdo``h `cBd`nàkds. Tob ks ghs` g abajbr `c R.T.-Zusskg Bxpbrt frùp `nGcfogn ngrd`trgcckdiknf. Tob hbdturbs kn Bnfhkso gt tob Bur`pbgnRnkvbrskty kn Tgknt ]btbrsjurf gnl ks g vksktknf hbdturbr gt tobBur`pbgn ]bgdb Rnkvbrskty, Gustrkg.

C`r hgtbst pujhkdgtk`ns, sbb 8www.bstbpgn`vg.nbt>.
http://www.estepanova.net/http://www.estepanova.net/http://www.estepanova.net/http://www.ifri.org/


5/21


6/21


< Kcrk

Tuaagry

Kt agy gppbgr togt Zusskg ks bqughhy lkssgtksckbl wkto j`to Vbstbrnsbdurktys prbsbndb kn gnl kts lbpgrturb cr`a Gcfognkstgn phgnnbl c`r:=7


7/21


2 Kcrk

Kntr`ludtk`n

C`r Zusskg, kaphkdgtk`ns `c lbvbh`pabnts kn gnl grùnl Gcfognkstgnlurknf a`rb togn g lbdglb `c Vbstbrn sbdurkty knv`hvbabnt gnl wktogn byb `n R.T./NG\@ wktolrgwghf` jby`nl dàpgrks`ns wkto T`vkbtdùntbrknsurfbndy, stgtb-jukhlknf gnl lbvbh`pabnt bxpbrkbndb tobrb kntob 7;?=s gnl wkto tob 7;?; wktolrgwgh `c tob T`vkbt c`rdbs.

Vokhb Zusskg ks `nb `c sbvbrgh phgybrs kn tob jr`glbr rbfk`n,tobrb ks n` so`rtgfb `c gdt`rs bvbn a`rb lkrbdthy gccbdtbl jy tob

sktugtk`n kn Gcfognkstgn. \obsb rgnfb crà sudo drktkdgh phgybrs gs]gikstgn gnl Krgn t` tob tw` hgrfbr nbkfoj`rsDokng gnl Knlkggnltob Dbntrgh Gskgn stgtbs. Dàpgrbl t` tobsb rbfk`ngh gdt`rs, Zusskgs`vbrghh r`hb `n Gcfognkstgn ks a`lbst. Kn sàb rbspbdts, sudo gs ktsknchubndb `n kntrg-Gcfogn p`hktkdgh pr`dbss `r l`n`r gnl lbvbh`pabntgdtkvkty, Zusskg ks audo hbss rbhbvgnt togn sàb `tobr ùt-`c-grbgstgtbs glegdbnt t` tob rbfk`n sudo gs tob RGB `r \uriby. Gt tob sgabtkab, Zusskg l`bs ogvb dbrtgkn Gcfognkstgn-rbhgtbl d`ndbrns, kntbrbstsgnl g a`rb tgnfkjhb r`hb t` phgy kn gt hbgst torbb rbspbdts. Zusskg kstob sknfhb hgrfbst bnl-agribt c`r tob Gcfogn obr`kn, g age`r cgdkhktgt`r`c R.T./NG\@ Gcfognkstgn-rbhgtbl trgnskt gnl g hgrfb gnl stkhh rbhgtkvbhyp`wbrcuh phgybr kn Dbntrgh Gskg gnl ghhy `c sbvbrgh `c Gcfognkstgns

Dbntrgh Gskgn nbkfoj`rs.

Hkib a`st `tobr rbfk`ngh gnl nbxt-t`-tob-rbfk`n gdt`rs, Zusskgogs jbbn rgtobr gajkfuùs kn kts rbgdtk`n rbfgrlknf tob R.T. gnlNG\@ akhktgry prbsbndb kn Gcfognkstgn `vbr tob pgst lbdglb. KnktkghhyA`sd`w `cckdkghhy wbhdàbl tob p`st-;/77 wgr `n tbrr`rksa gnl tobR.T.-hbl auhtkhgtbrgh kntbrvbntk`n kn Gcfognkstgn. ]grthy lub t` Zusskgsd`ndbrns gjùt tob v`hgtkhb sktugtk`n t` tob sùto `c tob c`rabr T`vkbtj`rlbrs gnl t` pbrdbkvbl bxtbrngh tbrr`rkst torbgts crà Kshgakstbxtrbaksts, toks wgs ghs` gn gttbapt t` hkni kts `wn sbdurkty dgapgkfnkn Dobdonyg t` fh`jgh wgr `n tbrr`rksa gnl try t` hbfktkakzb kt gs pgrt`c jr`glbr kntbrngtk`ngh gntktbrr`rksa gfbnlg. \oks, o`wbvbr, lkl n`t

prbvbnt A`sd`w crà ghwgys suspbdtknf g lbfrbb `c p`wbr prèbdtk`nkn lksfuksb kn tob R.T./NG\@ frglughhy bxpgnlknf prbsbndb knGcfognkstgn gnl crà sbbknf kt gs pgrthy gnl pbrogps, uhtkagtbhy,kntbnlbl t` ibbp Zusskg (gnl Dokng) kn dobdi kn Dbntrgh Gskg.

Zusskgs rbgdtk`n t` tob R.T./NG\@ wktolrgwgh crà Gcfognkstgngppbgrs bqughhy, kc n`t a`rb, gajkfuùs.

@n tob `nb ognl, pbrogps n`toknf khhustrgtbs tob hkakts `cpbrdbkvbl R.T. ànkp`tbndb jbttbr togn tob knfh`rkùs jut bxphkdgjhbbnl `c tob R.T./NG\@ Gcfognkstgn dgapgkfn. \ob Rnktbl Ttgtbs gnlNG\@ frglughhy f`t akrbl kn gn knd`ndhuskvb, gnl crgfabntbl, jut
http://www.ifri.org/


8/21


3 Kcrk

lbglhy, gnl kntbnsb gsyaabtrkdgh wgr wkto gn kndàpgrgjhy wbgibr,jut knlkfbnùs gnl okfohy d`nvkdtbl \ghkjgn knsurfbndy. \oby ghs`jbdgab bnfgfbl kn gn`tobr d`ntr`vbrskgh stgtb-jukhlknf bxpbrkabnt,wkto qubstk`ngjhb gnl akxbl rbsuhts gt jbst. \ob R.T. gnl NG\@prbsbndb jrùfot nbktobr sbdurkty, n`r pbgdb t` Gcfognkstgn. N`r wgs

kt pgrtkduhgrhy rbhbvgnt t` lbghknf wkto tob rgpklhy bxpgnlknf `pkuabd`này, wo`sb ùtput qukdihy jbdgab tob a`st lkrbdt doghhbnfbbagngtknf c`r Zusskg crà Gcfognkstgn.

\ob R.T.-hbl wktolrgwgh crà Gcfognkstgn `nhy d`nckrabl gnl cblknt` Zusskgs dàphgknts gjùt knbcckdkbndy `c Vbstbrn sbdurktyprbsbndb tobrb. \ob do`kdb c`r gn bxkt `ptk`n gaùntbl, gt hbgst kntob bybs `c Zusskg gnl `tobr rbfk`ngh phgybrs, t` tob R.T. gnl NG\@rbhudtgnt rbd`fnktk`n `c dùntbrknsurfbndy kapgssb gnl g fbnbrgh hgdi`c pr`frbss, kc n`t ùtrkfot cgkhurb, kn Gcfognkstgn. @ndb tobsbrkùsnbss `c tob @jgag glaknkstrgtk`ns kntbnt t` tgib gn bxkt dùrsbwgs bstgjhksobl (wokdo t`ì Zusskgn bxpbrts gnl p`hkdy-agibrs sàb

tkab), A`sd`ws fb`strgtbfkdghhy-aknlbl ruhbrs aust ogvb sbnsbl, kcn`t v`kdbl, sàb rbhkbc rbfgrlknf R.T. h`nfbr-tbra fb`p`hktkdghgajktk`ns kn tob rbfk`n. \oks ks n`t t` abntk`n g a`rb l`wn-t`-bgrtoj`nus c`r Zusskg t` bgrn sàb a`nby kn tob c`ra `c R.T. gnl ktsghhkbs pgyabnt c`r Gcfognkstgn-rbhgtbl trgnskt cgdkhktgtk`n.

@n tob `tobr ognl, Zusskg ks cgr crà lgndknf `n tob j`nbs gnlrbe`kdknf gt tob R.T. ogsty lbpgrturbgnl dbrtgknhy lkl n`t bxpbdt kt t`jb s` spbbly gnl lbdkskvb. \ob wrgp-up `c R.T. akhktgry prbsbndbtgibs phgdb gs Gcfognkstgn rbagkns gn grbg `c grabl d`nchkdt gnld`ntknuknf knstgjkhkty. Fkvbn tob hkaktbl cundtk`nghkty gnl qubstk`ngjhbhbfktkagdy `c tob Gcfogn stgtb, rgapgnt d`rruptk`n gnl gjsbndb `c

p`hktkdgh sbtthbabnt, tob trgnscbr `c sbdurkty tgsis prbsbnt Gcfognguto`rktkbs ghh`ws gn bvbn hgrfbr sbdurkty vgduua t` jb drbgtbl, wktosbrkùs rbpbrdussk`ns kn tbras `c dr`ss-j`rlbr knstgjkhkty, akhktgndy,gnl sogl`w bd`này. \oks ngturghhy w`rrkbs ghh rbfk`ngh stgib-o`hlbrs,n`nb `c woà (gnl Zusskg hbgst `c ghh) ks rbgly `r dgn gcc`rl t` phgylkrbdt sbdurkty r`hb kn Gcfognkstgn. Curtobra`rb, tob R.T./NG\@lbpgrturb rbqukrbs tbap`rgry upfrglb `c Vbstbrn sbdurkty prbsbndbgnl bxpgnsk`n `c h`fkstkdgh nbtw`ris t` Dbntrgh Gskg gnl ogs rbvkvblR.T. kntbrbst kn sbdurkty d``pbrgtk`n wkto stgtbs `c tob rbfk`n,bspbdkghhy wkto tob Igrka`v rbfkab kn Rzjbikstgn. \oks, kn turn, cubhblZusskgs suspkdk`ns gjùt tob unlbrhyknf a`tkvgtk`ns jboknl obgvkbrVbstbrn sbdurkty c``tprknt kn Dbntrgh Gskg.

Ghh toks rgksbs g nuajbr `c qubstk`ns. @vbrghh, grb tobrb a`rbh`ssbs `r fgkns c`r Zusskg rbsuhtknf crà tob bgrhkbr gnl a`rb rglkdghR.T. akhktgry wktolrgwgh crà Gcfognkstgn0 \` wogt bxtbnt ks Zusskgs`wn ngtk`ngh gnl ouagn sbdurkty ks gccbdtbl jy tob sktugtk`n knGcfognkstgn gnl kc gnl o`w togt dgn dognfb gctbr :=7


9/21


6 Kcrk

Zusskgs Gcfognkstgn-rbhgtblD`ndbrns kn Dbntrgh Gskg

Tbdurkty d`nsklbrgtk`ns

Vokhb sbdurkty d`nsklbrgtk`ns tgib prk`rkty kn Zusskgs gppr`gdo t` tob

Gcfognkstgn pr`jhba, Zusskg, dàpgrbl t` ghh `tobr bxtbrngh gdt`rs, kspbrogps tob a`st sbvbrbhy d`nstrgknbl kn kts sbdurkty p`hkdy t`wgrlsGcfognkstgn.

\ob trùjhbl T`vkbt pgst kn Gcfognkstgn gnl Zusskgs rbludblakhktgry, p`hktkdgh gnl bd`nàkd p`tbntkgh gnl hkaktbl rbfk`ngh ùtrbgdojby`nl tob c`rabr T`vkbt spgdb lbdkskvbhy prbdhulb gny lkrbdt sbdurktyr`hb kn Gcfognkstgn, jbc`rb `r gctbr :=7


10/21


? Kcrk

Zksis `c kndrbgsknf knstgjkhk ty kn Dbntrgh Gskg

Knlbbl, c`r Zusskg, tob agkn sbdurkty kaphkdgtk`ns `c tob R.T./NG\@wktolrgwgh crà Gcfognkstgn l` n`t gppbgr t` jb kn Gcfognkstgntobygrb kn Dbntrgh Gskg. \orbb p`knts nbbl t` jb d`nsklbrbl kn toks rbspbdt.

Ckrst, `vbr tob pgst lbdglb, Zusskgs gssbssabnt `c tob tbrr`rksatorbgt bagngtknf crà Gcfognkstgn ogs bv`hvbl. Zusskgsunlbrstgnlknf `c tbrr`rksa gs g torbgt p`sbl jyGcfognkstgn/]gikstgn-jgsbl gdt`rs ogs sokctblcrà tob bapogsks `ngh-Wgblgs fh`jgh d`nnbdtk`n, kndhulknf hknis t` tob N`rto Dgudgsus, kntob ckrst p`st-;/77 ybgrs t` g rbfk`ngh c`dus dbntbrbl `n kaphkdgtk`ns c`rDbntrgh Gskg. Zusskgs bgrhkbr kndhkngtk`n t` akakd R.T.-styhb `jsbssk`nwkto gh-Wgblg tbrr`rksa wgs hgrfbhy lkdtgtbl jy g prgdtkdgh nbbl t` hkniZusskgs `wn lbdglb-h`nf sbdurkty dgapgkfn kn Dobdonyg t` tob R.T.-

hbl fh`jgh wgr `n tbrr`rksa gnl t` strbss tob dàa`n ngturb `c tobfh`jgh torbgt. \ob kntbrngtk`ngh d`ntbxt, o`wbvbr, stgrtbl t` dognfbs``n. \ob R.T. gnl ghhkbl/NG\@ c`rdbs jbdgab o`pbhbsshy akrbl knGcfognkstgn gnl tob \ghkjgn-hbl knsurfbndy bsdghgtbl. \ob jr`glbrR.T-hbl wgr `n tbrr`rksa ogs uhtkagtbhy babrfbl gs g okfohyd`ntr`vbrskgh gnl, t` gn bxtbnt, bvbn dùntbrpr`ludtkvb dgapgkfn.Gdd`rlknf t` tob jbst gvgkhgjhb stgtkstkds (kntbfrgtbl kn Fh`jgh\brr`rksa Knlbx), `vbr g lbdglb skndb tob wgr `n tbrr`rksa wgshgundobl kn :==7, tbrr`rkst gdtkvkty kndrbgsbl jy :4< pbrdbnt, gnl ghk`ns sogrb gnl tob sogrpbst rksb `c toks gdtkvkty wgs gddùntbl c`r jytw` dùntrkbs togt jbdgab tob prkagry tgrfbts kn tob wgr `ntbrr`rksaKrgq skndb :==< gnl Gcfognkstgn hgtbr kn tob :===s (e`knbljy ]gikstgn jy tob bgrhy :=7=s).:

Kn tob abgntkab, Zusskg agngfbl t` sdghb l`wn g age`r wgr knDobdonyg t` g crgfabntbl akn`r d`nchkdt `c h`wbr kntbnskty kn tob N`rtoDgudgskgn rbfk`n, ghjbkt jy pgyknf g obgvy p`hktkdgh, sbdurkty gnlbd`nàkd prkdb c`r Dobdobnkzgtk`n. Kn toks d`ntbxt, A`sd`wkndrbgsknfhy rbghkzbl tob nbbl t` rbgdo ùt t` a`lbrgtb Kshgakd c`rdbsgnl Aushka stgtbs gnl tob knglbqugdy `c tob Kshgakst tbrr`rksa-dbntbrbl dùrsb kn kts p`hkdkbs kn tob jr`glbr Akllhb Bgst/TùtowbstGskg. \oks ghs` hbl Zusskg t` ngrr`w l`wn tob tbrr`rksa torbgt cràGcfognkstgn (gnl ]gikstgn) gnl t` hkni kt prkagrkhy t` tob a`rb h`dghkzbltorbgt `c g spkhh-`vbr `c tbrr`rksa gnl akhktgndy, agknhy jy bxkhbl Dbntrgh

Gskgn akhktgnts, t` Dbntrgh Gskgn stgtbs. G pgrghhbh sogrp kndrbgsb wgsgn bxtrbabhy hgrfb sdghb gnl rgpkl sbdurktkzgtk`n `c g lkrbdt torbgtp`sbl t` Zusskg ktsbhc jy tob trgcckdiknf `c tob Gcfogn obr`kn stgrtbl t`fgkn fr`wknf gttbntk`n kn A`sd`w gnl rbqukrbl sàb p`hkdy sokct, pgrthygt tob bxpbnsb `c tob c`rabr tbrr`rksa-ckrst gppr`gdo.

:Fh`jgh \brr`rksa Knlbx5 Dgpturknf tob Kapgdt `c \brr`rksa kn :==:-:=77,

Tylnby/Nbw [`ri, Knstktutb c`r Bd`nàkds gnl ]bgdb, :=7:, pp. .
http://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/2012-Global-Terrorism-Index-Report.pdfhttp://www.ifri.org/


11/21


; Kcrk

Tbd`nl, bvbn gs tob torbgt `c g spkhh-`vbr `c akhktgndy gnltbrr`rksa crà Gcfognkstgn ks gn kssub c`r A`sd`w, bspbdkghhy kn vkbw`c kts d`ndbrns gjùt stgjkhkty kn Dbntrgh Gskg gnl kts sbdurkty rbhgtk`nswkto sbvbrgh Dbntrgh Gskgn rbfkabs, `vbrbstkagtknf tob spkhh-`vbrtorbgt agy jb gs so`rt-skfotbl gs unlbrbstkagtknf kt. Knlbbl, tobrb

ogs jbbn sàb rksb kn vk`hbnt kndklbnts kn n`rtobrn Gcfognkstgn skndb:==;. O`wbvbr, tobsb lbvbh`pabnts l` n`t eustkcy jhgaknf bhbabnts `cunrbst gnl akhktgndy kn tob nbkfoj`rknf Dbntrgh Gskgn stgtbs,pgrtkduhgrhy kn \gekikstgn kn :=7=-:=7:, prkagrkhy `n g spkhh-`vbr `ckntbrngh d`nchkdt gnl knstgjkhkty crà Gcfognkstgn. \` stgrt wkto, spkhh-`vbr`c knstgjkhkty f`bs kn j`to lkrbdtk`ns (n`t `nhy crà Gcfognkstgn t`Dbntrgh Gskg, jut ghs`, b. f., crà \gekikstgn t` Gcfognkstgn).4\ob agknsùrdbs `c knstgjkhkty gnl `rfgnkzbl vk`hbndb kn \gekikstgn, Iyrfyzstgn`r Rzjbikstgn grb kntbrngh gnl l` n`t rbsuht crà spkhh-`vbr cràGcfognkstgn, bvbn kc tob p`hktkdgh nbbl c`r c`rbkfn sdgpbf`gts rbagknsvbry okfo c`r ghh f`vbrnabnts kn tob rbfk`n. Tkakhgrhy, n`t ghh knstgjkhktykn n`rtobrn Gcfognkstgn dgn jb jhgabl `n tob `hl bxkhbl akhktgntscrà Dbntrgh Gskg, sudo gs tob Kshgakd A`vbabnt `c Rzjbikstgn (KAR).\ob KAR ogl jbbn c`rdbl t` rbh`dgtb t` Gcfognkstgn kn tob hgtb 7;;=s,succbrbl g age`r drgdil`wn tobrb kn :==7, chbl t` ]gikstgns trkjghgrbgs gnl jbdgab kndrbgsknfhy agrfknghkzbl jy tob akl-:===s.9 \glengioso T. \urc `n tob Z``c `c tobV`rhl, N`rwbfkgn ]bgdbjukhlknf Zbsùrdb Dbntbr (N@ZBC) Zbp`rt, Tbptbajbr :=7:,8www.pbgdbjukhlknf.n`/Zbfk`ns/Gskg/Dbntrgh-Gskg/\urc-`n-tob-r``c-`c-tob-w`rhl>..
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/%20central-asia/tajikistan/205-tajikistan-the-changing-insurgent-threats.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/%20central-asia/tajikistan/205-tajikistan-the-changing-insurgent-threats.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/%20central-asia/tajikistan/205-tajikistan-the-changing-insurgent-threats.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/%20central-asia/tajikistan/205-tajikistan-the-changing-insurgent-threats.aspxhttp://www.peacebuilding.no/Regions/Asia/Central-Asia/Turf-on-the-roof-of-the-worldhttp://www.peacebuilding.no/Regions/Asia/Central-Asia/Turf-on-the-roof-of-the-worldhttp://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/After_The_War_On_Terror.pdfhttp://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/After_The_War_On_Terror.pdfhttp://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/After_The_War_On_Terror.pdfhttp://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/After_The_War_On_Terror.pdfhttp://www.peacebuilding.no/Regions/Asia/Central-Asia/Turf-on-the-roof-of-the-worldhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/%20central-asia/tajikistan/205-tajikistan-the-changing-insurgent-threats.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/%20central-asia/tajikistan/205-tajikistan-the-changing-insurgent-threats.aspxhttp://www.ifri.org/


12/21


7= Kcrk

Gcfognkstgn t` Dbntrgh Gskg, jut ghs` gjùt tob R.T. kntbrbst knbxpgnlknf sbdurkty prbsbndb kn Dbntrgh Gskg. \ob R.T. agkn kntbrbst knbxpgnlknf sbdurkty prbsbndb kn tob rbfk`n agy jb sbhc-bvklbntt`bnsurb sgcb trgnskt/h`fkstkds d`rrkl`r gnl t` jgdi up kts rbagknknfc`rdbs kn Gcfognkstgn. O`wbvbr, kt wgs jùnl t` dgusb nbw suspkdk`n

gnl lkstrust `n tob Zusskgn sklb gjùt tob R.T. unlbrhyknf f`ghs gnla`tkvgtk`n kn tob rbfk`n, bspbdkghhy kn vkbw `c tob R.T.-Rzjbikstgnrgppr`dobabnt gnl \gsoibnts wktolrgwgh crà D`hhbdtkvb Tbdurkty\rbgty @rfgnkzgtk`n (DT\@) kn Eunb :=7:. Kn cgdt, kt ks toks nbwhystkauhgtbl kntbrbst `n tob pgrt `c tob Rnktbl Ttgtbs togt akfot ogvbobhpbl t` spur Zusskgs `wn gdtkvkty kn Dbntrgh Gskg. ]rbsklbnt ]utknsvkskts t` Iyrfyzstgn gnl \gekikstgn kn tob cghh `c :=7: fkvb g dhub `n tobpgto togt toks gdtkvkty wùhl tgib5 g dàjkngtk`n `c bd`nàkdgfrbbabnts (bspbdkghhy kn bnbrfy sbdt`r, sudo gs oylr`p`wbr stgtk`nsd`nstrudtk`n) gnl akhktgry/sbdurkty grrgnfbabnts (sudo gs cknghkzknfdàprbobnskvb gfrbbabnts `n jgsbs/akhktgry cgdkhktkbs gnl `ccbrknfnbw akhktgry gsskstgndb).

@vbrghh, A`sd`ws agkn strgtbfy t` gllrbss sbdurkty d`ndbrns knDbntrgh Gskg kn tob d`ntbxt `c R.T./NG\@ wktolrgwgh crà Gcfognkstgnks t` kntbnskcy sbdurkty gnl bd`nàkd d``pbrgtk`n wkto Zusskgs DT\@pgrtnbrs kn tob rbfk`n. ]grgl`xkdghhy, toks pr`dbss ogs jbbn dgtghyzblj`to jy tob pr`spbdt `c R.T./NG\@ wktolrgwgh crà Gcfognkstgn gnljy tob rbhgtbl, bvbn kc tbap`rgry, kndrbgsb kn Vbstbrn sbdurkty kntbrbstgnl gdtkvkty kn Dbntrgh Gskg. Zusskgs upfrglbl bapogsks `n DbntrghGskg wkhh jb dùphbl wkto ibbpknf g dbrtgkn lkstgndb cràGcfognkstgng lkstgndb hgrfb bnùfo t` bxdhulb gny lkrbdt sbdurktyr`hb c`r Zusskg, jut hkaktbl bnùfo t` ghh`w sàb bd`nàkd r`hb gnlsbdurkty gsskstgndb t` wokdobvbr f`vbrnabnt gnl p`hktkdgh d`ghktk`n grb

kn p`wbr kn Gcfognkstgn gctbr :=7


13/21


77 Kcrk

\ob Doghhbnfb `c tob Gcfogn@pkgtbs

\ob agkn d`ndbrn togt lrkvbs Zusskgs fbnuknb kntbrbst kn kapr`vblfbnbrgh sbdurkty kn Gcfognkstgn ks A`sd`ws age`r dùntbr-ngrd`tkdsd`ndbrn rbhgtbl t` tob hgrfb-sdghb knch`w `c `pkgtbs, prkagrkhy obr`kn, `ctob Gcfogn `rkfkn. \ob ngrd`tkds pr`jhba ks tob a`st lkrbdt sbdurktydoghhbnfb crà Gcfognkstgn t` Zusskg ktsbhc.

\ob sdghb `c torbgt

Kt ks g lbhusk`n t` tokni togt tob R.T./NG\@ wktolrgwgh wkhh ogvbdgtgstr`pokd d`nsbqubndbs c`r Zusskg kn tob c`ra `c g rglkdgh rksb knngrd`trgcckdiknf crà Gcfognkstgnn`t jbdgusb tobrb ks n`dgtgstr`pob, jut jbdgusb tob drbbpknf dgtgstr`pob ogs ghrbgly tgibnphgdb. Lurknf tob :===s Zusskg jbdgab tob sknfhb hgrfbst dùntry bnl-agribt c`r tob Gcfogn obr`kn. \oks d`kndklbl wktognl pgrthy rbsuhts

cràgn unprbdblbntbl kndrbgsb kn p`st-\ghkjgn Gcfognkstgns `pkgtbùtput `vbr tob pgst lbdglb, pgrtkduhgrhy skndb :==


14/21


7: Kcrk

skzb `c torbgt ks quktb lkccbrbnt bvbn c`r Zusskg gnl Bur`pb5 Zusskgsngrd`tkds agribt ks `vbrwobhabl jy Gcfogn obr`kn, wobrbgs kn toba`rb lkvbrskckbl Bur`pbgn agribts `pkgtb d`nsuaptk`n ogs stgjkhkzblgnl fkvbs wgy t` fr`wknf knch`ws `c d`dgknb crà Tùto/DbntrghGabrkdg, kndhulknf vkg Vbst Gcrkdg, gs g a`rb prbssknf torbgt. \ob

Rnktbl Ttgtbs ks n`t lkrbdthy torbgtbnbl jy Gcfogn `pkgtbs togt gddùntc`r n` a`rb togn 4-3 pbrdbnt `c kts obr`kn agribt. 3

Kn d`ntrgst, c`r Zusskg, tob knch`w `c tob Gcfogn obr`kn jbdgabtob hgrfbst doghhbnfb crà Gcfognkstgn, p`sknf g vktgh torbgt t` ktsouagn sbdurkty gnl ùtwbkfoknf, jy kts lkrbdt kapgdt `n tob Zusskgns`dkbty, `tobr Gcfognkstgn-rbhgtbl d`ndbrns. Vokhb prbsbnt trgcckdiknftorùfo tob N`rtobrn rùtb vkg Dbntrgh Gskg gddùnts c`r :2 pbrdbnt`c Gcfognkstgns obr`kn bxp`rts (;= at) gnl 72 pbrdbnt `c `pkua

bxp`rts (42


15/21


74 Kcrk

Gcfogn `pkgtbs t` tob Rnktbl Ttgtbs gnl g h`wbr lbfrbb `c sudo torbgtc`r a`st NG\@/BR abajbrs, dàpgrbl t` Zusskg, bxphgkn woy tobVbst ogs n`t bapogskzbl dùntbrngrd`tkds kn Gcfognkstgn. Kt ghs`bxphgkns woy Vgsoknft`n stgrtbl t` pgy sàb gttbntk`n t` tob pr`jhbaskndb tob hgtb :===s, bapogskzknf lkccbrbnt gspbdts c dùntbrngrd tkds

togn Zusskg lkl77

Crà tob R.T. p`knt `c vkbw, jgdiknf agsskvb brglkdgtk`n knGcfognkstgn wgs tbdonkdghhy uncbgskjhb gnl p`hktkdghhydùntbrpr`ludtkvb, rgksknf tob rksi `c s`dkgh pr`tbst gnl ghkbngtknfpbgsgnts kn lruf-pr`ludknf grbgs. Hgrfb-sdghb kntbrlkdtk`n dùhl ghs`ghkbngtb crkbnlhy `r nbutrgh wgrh`rls gnl f`vbrnabnt-hknibl kntbrbstsgnl dhgns wo` pr`ckt crà khhkdkt lrufs n` hbss togn pbgsgnts, trgcckdibrs`r knsurfbnts l`. Obndb, kn d`ntrgst t` R.T. rbhkgndb `n gbrkghbrglkdgtk`n kn dùntrkbs hkib D`hàjkg, kn Gcfognkstgn tob @jgagglaknkstrgtk`n prà`tbl g dàjkngtk`n `c ghtbrngtkvb lbvbh`pabnt gnlsbhbdt kntbrlkdtk`n bcc`rts t` jb `nhy tgrfbtbl gfgknst knsurfbndy-hknibl

frùps.

.

7:

Zusskgn `cckdkghs ogvb glv`dgtbl a`rb rglkdgh dùntbrngrd`tkdsabgsurbs c`r Gcfognkstgn, dghhknf c`r hgrfb-sdghb brglkdgtk`n, r`justkntbrlkdtk`n gnl lruf hgj`rgt`ry lbstrudtk`n jy tob Gcfogn f`vbrnabntgnl kts sbdurkty jgdibrs. Frglughhy, gs tob Zusskgn f`vbrnabntrbghkzbl tob frgvkty `c ngrd`tkds doghhbnfb gnl upfrglbl kt t` `nb `c tobt`p sbdurkty doghhbnfbs gnl gs Zusskgs rbhgtkvbhy yùnfdùntbrngrd`tkds gfbndy CTIN cgakhkgrkzbl ktsbhc wkto tob spbdkckds gnlsùrdbs `c tob Gcfogn lruf torbgt, A`sd`ws p`hkdy ogs bv`hvbl t` f`jby`nl brglkdgtk`n ckrst agntrg. Gh`nf wkto tob RN @cckdb `n Lrufsgnl Drkab (RN@LD), Zusskg (wokdo kn d`ntrgst t` kt Vbstbrn

dùntbrpgrts wgs n`t d`nstrgknbl jy gny lkrbdtsbdurkty/dùntbrknsurfbndy rksis kn Gcfognkstgn), wgs qukdibr t`rbd`fnkzb tob lruf jusknbss hknis t` ghh typbs `c Gcfogn p`hktkdgh-akhktgry gdt`r, kndhulknf d`rrupt `cckdkghs gnl wgrh`rls hknibl t` tobf`vbrnabnt, n`t eust knsurfbndy. Kn :=77, Zusskgs dùntbrngrd`tkdsdokbc wgs tob ckrst c`rbkfn f`vbrnabnt rbprbsbntgtkvb t` qubstk`ngttbapts t` s`hbhy hkni lrufs kn Gcfognkstgn t` knsurfbndy/tbrr`rksa.Gdd`rlknf t` tob RN@LD gnl `tobr bstkagtbs, tob knsurfbnts gnnughrbvbnubs crà tgxknf duhtkvgtk`n gnl sàb `c `pkua trglb kn grbgsunlbr tobkr d`ntr`h l`bs n`t bxdbbl 7


16/21


7< Kcrk

akn`rkty jbnbckdkgry.72Hgtbhy, Zusskg ogs stgrtbl t` glv`dgtb g a`rbdàprbobnskvb lruf d`ntr`h gnl dùntbrngrd`tkds strgtbfy vks--vksGcfognkstgn, prà`tknf g dàjkngtk`n `c bnc`rdbabnt s`hutk`ns wkto gh`nfbr-tbra lbvbh`pabnt strgtbfy jby`nl dr`p sujstktutk`n, t` drbgtbstgjhb sùrdbs `c kndàb `n g ngtk`ngh sdghb gs g s`dk`-bd`nàkd

ghtbrngtkvb t` tob `pkua bd`này.73

Vokhb A`sd`w ogs t` dùntbr tob obr`kn pr`jhba knsklb Zusskggnl gh`nf tob trgcckdiknf rùtb, n` sustgkngjhb pr`frbss dgn jbgdokbvbl untkh tob pr`jhba ks systbagtkdghhy gllrbssbl gt tob sùrdbGcfognkstgn. Gs Zusskg ktsbhc dgnn`t gcc`rl lkrbdt sbdurkty knv`hvbabntkn Gcfognkstgn, kt ogs t` lbpbnl `n wogtbvbr ngtk`ngh `r auhtkhgtbrghsbdurkty dgpgdkty ks prbsbnt tobrb c`r dùntbrngrd`tkds (k.b., prkagrkhy `ntob Gcfogn f`vbrnabnt gctbr :=7.73

\oks p`knt wgs unlbrsd`rbl jy ]rbsklbnt ]utkn kn Tbptbajbr :=7:, wobn obrbagribl, wobn lksdussknf Gcfognkstgn gctbr R.T gnl NG\@ lbpgrturb, togt Nknbpbrdbnt `c togt dùntry's FL] dàbs crà lruf trgcckdiknf. Kc yù wgnt t` rbphgdb toks ;pbrdbnt, yù'hh ogvb t` pgyjut n` `nb wgnts t`... \ghi ks n`t bnùfowogt yù nbblks sujstgntkvb bd`nàkd p`hkdkbs gnl ckngndkgh gsskstgndb. N`j`ly sbbas wkhhknf t`pr`vklb togt, t` jbfkn wkto. Shglkakr ]utkn's kntbrvkbw t` Zusskg \`lgy, 3 Tbptbajbr:=7:,8ottp5//rt.dà/nbws/vhglkakr-putkn-bxdhuskvb-kntbrvkbw-


17/21


72 Kcrk

\ob p`tbntkgh kndrbgsb `c Gcfogn lrufs knt`Zusskg

Kn tob dàknf ybgrs tob torbgt `c Gcfogn `pkgtbs agy curtobr torbgtbnnbkfoj`rknf stgtbs gnl agkn bnl-agribts (Zusskg, Dokng gnl, t` sàbbxtbnt, Bur`pb). C`r Zusskg tob knch`w `c Gcfogn `pkgtbs vkg tobN`rtobrn rùtb ks hkibhy t` kndrbgsb c`r sbvbrgh nbw cgdt`rs, `nhy tw` `cwokdo grb rbhgtbl t` Gcfognkstgn gnl `nhy `nbt` tob R.T./NG\@lbpgrturb.

\oks skfnkckdgnt nbw rksi agnkcbsts ktsbhc kn tob sùto wokdo ksdbntrgh t` tob Gcfogn `pkua bd`này. Vobn tob kntbrngtk`ngh sbdurktyprbsbndb bnls kn kts prbsbnt c`ra kn :=7


18/21


73 Kcrk

lbagnl ogl t` jb pgrthy abt jy g nbw rksb kn duhtkvgtk`n togt stgrtbl kn:=77-:=7:.7?@pkgtb trglb kn n`rtobrn Gcfognkstgn ks ghs` cgdkhktgtbl jyg lkspr`p`rtk`ngtbhy h`w hbvbh `c obr`kn sbkzurbs (2 pbrdbnt `c ghhsbkzurbs dùntry-wklb), dàpgrbl t` tob v`huab `c obr`kn f`knftorùfo tob N`rtobrn rùtb.7;

\ob rksi cgdt`rs kn Gcfognkstgn `vbrhgp wkto nbw rksis gh`nf tobtrgcckdiknf rùtb gdr`ss Dbntrgh Gskg. Ttgjhb okfo obr`kn knch`ws t`Zusskg vkg N`rtobrn rùtb kn rbdbnt ybgrs (tob sgab 62-?= at/ybgr) grbdùphbl wkto g skfnkckdgnt lbdhknb kn lruf sbkzurbs kn Dbntrgh Gskg (jy43 pbrdbnt c`r `pkua gnl jy :2 pbrdbnt c`r obr`kn).

:=

C`r Zusskg, tob jbst-dgsb sdbngrk` kaphkbs g hkaktbl kndrbgsb kn`pkgtb ch`ws torùfo tob N`rtobrn rùtb kn tob dàknf ybgrs, t`stgjkhkzb gt okfobr hbvbh togn kt stgnls gt prbsbnt. \ob w`rst-dgsbsdbngrk` dùhl knv`hvb rb`rkbntgtk`n `c sàb pgrt `c tob agkn `pkgtbtrgcckdiknf rùtb t` Bur`pb crà tob trglktk`ngh Jghign rùtb t` tobn`rtobrn `nb vkg Dbntrgh Gskg, turnknf Zusskg jgdi t` g trgnskt stgtb c`rGcfogn obr`kn.

\oks suffbstswbgibnknf dùntbrngrd`tkds dgpgdkty kn Dbntrgh Gskgn stgtbs gnlfr`wknf ngrd`tkds-rbhgtbl d`rruptk`n gdr`ss tob rbfk`n. Kn Dbntrgh Gskg,dùntbrngrd`tkds dgpgdkty n`w hgfs cgr jboknl trgcckdibrs gjkhkty t`gdtkvbhy bxph`kt nbw bd`nàkd lbvbh`pabnts gnl `pp`rtunktkbs sudo gstob bxpgnsk`n `c trgns-rbfk`ngh trgnsp`rt kncrgstrudturb, gn kndrbgsb kntrglb, gnl gn bxpgnlbl crbb-trglb grbg gs g rbsuht `c Igzgiostgn

e`knknf tob Dustàs Rnk`n wkto Zusskg gnl Jbhgrus.

7?Gcfognkstgn @pkua Turvby :=7:, Tuaagry Cknlknfs, Skbnng, RN@LD, :=7:, p.


19/21


76 Kcrk

D`ndhusk`ns

Kt ogs jbbn sàb tkab skndb tob Rnktbl Ttgtbs unlbr tob ckrstglaknkstrgtk`n `c Jgrgdi @jgag sbt kts aknl `n tob rbludtk`n `c tobR.T. akhktgry prbsbndb kn Gcfognkstgn. Gctbr togt, Zusskg, ga`nf `tobrrbfk`ngh phgybrs, v`kdbl d`ndbrns gjùt tob p`st-:=7< Gcfognkstgnpr`jhba gnl jy :=74, tw` nbw d`nlktk`ns babrfbl.

@nb qubstk`ns tob rbglknbss `c rb-bhbdtbl ]rbsklbnt @jgag gnloks rbsoucchbl c`rbkfn p`hkdy tbga t` n`t `nhy spbbl up tr``p

wktolrgwgh crà Gcfognkstgn, jut ghs` d`nsklbr hbgvknf gs cbw c`rdbstobrb gctbr :=7< gs p`sskjhb. \oks ogstknbss agy sbba t` dàphkdgtbtob sktugtk`n `n tob frùnl, jy agiknf tob trgnsktk`n pbrk`l tùfobrgnl so`rtbr wbgtobrknf rksknf sbdurkty d`ndbrns gdr`ss tob rbfk`ngjùt p`tbntkgh lbstgjkhkzgtk`n. @n tob `tobr ognl, Vgsoknft`nsgnnùndbabnt `c phgns t` wktolrgw prgdtkdghhy ghh c`rdbs ogs gt hbgst`nb p`sktkvb bccbdtkt ks g nbdbssgry d`nlktk`n t` `pbn wgy c`rdbgsbckrb tghis wkto tob knsurfbndy (wo`sb hbglbrs rbcusbl t` bnfgfbkn gny sujstgntkvb tghis gs h`nf gs R.T./NG\@ ibbp c`rdbs knGcfognkstgn), bvbn kc sudo tghis grb n`toknf jut g prbhulb t` fbnuknbkntrg-Gcfogn pbgdb pr`dbss wkto tob uhtkagtb f`gh `c gdokbvknf p`hktkdghsbtthbabnt gnl p`wbr-sogrknf gfrbbabnt.

Gn`tobr nbw cgdt`r, unrbhgtbl t` Gcfognkstgn pbr sb, ks tob hgtbstcrbbzb kn rbhgtk`ns jbtwbbn tob R.T. gnl Zusskg (gnl t` g hbssbrbxtbnt, jbtwbbn Zusskg gnl tob Vbst), skndb hgtb :=7:. \oks crbbzbogs prgdtkdghhy put gn bnl t` tob rbhgtkvbhy upjbgt rbsbt pbrk`l knjkhgtbrgh rbhgtk`ns skndb :==;. Vokhb toks lbtbrk`rgtk`n kn Gabrkdgn-Zusskgn rbhgtk`ns dùhl ogvb jbbn bxpbdtbl t` kapblb d``pbrgtk`n `nGcfognkstgn, kt agy ogvb unbxpbdtblhy pr`ludbl gn `pp`sktb bccbdt.Jy n`w tob tw` dùntrkbs rbghkzb togt wokhb jkhgtbrgh rbhgtk`ns wkhh jbquktb tbnsb kn tob dàknf ybgrs, toby dgnn`t jb ghh`wbl t` lbtbrk`rgtbjbh`w g dbrtgkn hbvbh. Kr`nkdghhy, toks agy kaphy togt tob prbsbnt p`hktkdghtbnsk`ns agy gdtughhygnl dùntbr kntuktkvbhypuso tob pgrtkbs t`

d`ndbntrgtb `n d``pbrgtk`n `n to`sb sbhbdt sbdurkty kssubs togt grb `ckntbrbst t` j`to `c toba. Kn gllktk`n t`tob hgtbst rbnbwbl bapogsks `ndùntbrtbrr`rksa d``pbrgtk`n (kn hkfot `c tob Gprkh 72, :=74 J`st`nagrgto`n gttgdis jhgabl `n R.T.-jgsbl tbrr`rkst suspbdts `c N`rtoDgudgskgn `rkfkn), autugh sbdurkty kntbrbsst kndhulb strgtbfkd grasd`ntr`h, tgdtkdgh aksskhb lbcbnsb gnl Gcfognkstgn. Gabrkdgn-Zusskgnsbdurkty gnl p`hktkdgh d``pbrgtk`n`n Gcfognkstgnks `nf`knf gnl agygdtughhy lbvbh`p curtobrgt hbgst wokhb tob Rnktbl Ttgtbs gnl ktsVbstbrn ghhkbs rbtgkn age`r kntbrbst kn tob rbfk`n. Gnl kc tobsb kntbrbstslbdhknb, s` wùhl tob p`tbntkgh c`r d``pbrgtk`n.


20/21


7? Kcrk

Bvbn gs tob NG\@ gnl R.T. akhktgry prbsbndb bnls kn kts prbsbntc`ra, n`toknfbvbn tob hgrfb-sdghb lkrbdt doghhbnfb p`sbl jy tobknch`w `c tob Gcfogn `pkgtbsdgn lrgf Zusskg knt` jbdàknf g audohgrfbr phgybr kn Gcfognkstgn togn kt prbsbnthy ks. Vokhb A`sd`w ks hkibhyt` ibbp g dbrtgkn lkstgndb crà Gcfognkstgn gs sudo, tob sdghb-l`wn

gnl tob h`àknf bnl `c Vbstbrn sbdurkty prbsbndb kn Gcfognkstgn kn ktsprbsbnt c`ra ogvb ghrbgly stkauhgtbl sàb upfrglb gnl bxtbnsk`n `cZusskgs sbdurkty gnl bd`nàkd ùtrbgdo gnl prbsbndb kn DbntrghGskg.

Kt agy gppbgr togt Zusskg ks bqughhy lkssgtksckbl wkto j`to tobR.T./NG\@ prbsbndb kn gnl lbpgrturb crà Gcfognkstgn. O`wbvbr,wobtobr tob Vbstbrn wktolrgwgh ks sbbn gs a`rb `c g fgkn `r a`rbh`ss lbpbnls `n o`w A`sd`w ktsbhc gssbssbs gnl jghgndbs kts sbdurktyd`ndbrns. Zusskgs tw` agkn sbdurkty d`ndbrns gjùt Gcfognkstgntbrr`rksa gnl ngrd`tkdssoùhl n`t jb d`nchgtbl, bvbn gs tobrb kssàb `vbrhgp jbtwbbn tob tw`. Lbpbnlknf `n wokdo torbgt ks

prk`rktkzbl gnl `n o`w rbghkstkdghhy kt ks gssbssbl, lkccbrbnt p`hkdygddbnts agy jb rbqukrbl kn Zusskgs gppr`gdo t` Gcfognkstgn(gccbdtknf n`t `nhy Zusskgs sbdurkty p`hkdy, jut ghs` A`sd`wsgppr`gdo t` kntrg-Gcfogn p`hktkdgh sbtthbabnt gnl wobtobr, `n gjghgndb, kt sbbs R.T./NG\@ lbpgrturb gs a`rb `c g hbss wbhdàblbvbh`pabnt).

Kc tbrr`rksa ks prk`rktkzbl gnl tob torbgt `c spkhh-`vbr `c knstgjkhkty t`Dbntrgh Gskg ks oypbl jby`nl rbgs`n, tobn R.T./NG\@ lbpgrturb cràGcfognkstgn akfot jb rbfrbttbl. Gttbapts jy Zusskgn p`hkdyagibrs `rgnghysts t` bxdbsskvbhy bapogskzb tbrr`rksa torbgts kn d`nnbdtk`n t`Gcfognkstgn, kn tob gjsbndb `c lkrbdt hknis jbtwbbn tbrr`rkst frùps

gnl gdtkvkty kn Gcfognkstgn gnl Zusskg, dùhl ghs` rbchbdt g a`rbknstruabntgh gppr`gdo hknibl t` A`sd`ws ghhkgndb-jukhlknf gnlstgjkhkty d`ndbrns kn Dbntrgh Gskg. Kt agy ghs` kaphy g lbfrbb `cagnkpuhgtk`n `c toks torbgt t` gddàa`lgtb Dbntrgh Gskgn rbfkabsgnl j`w t` tobkr `jsbssk`n wkto tob bxp`rt gnl spkhh-`vbr `c Kshgaksttbrr`rksa gnl akhktgndy crà Gcfognkstgn. \ob agkn rksi `c tgiknf toksgppr`gdo ks togt kt lrgfs Zusskg jgdi t` dùntbrpr`ludtkvb gnld`ntr`vbrskgh wgr `n tbrr`rksa h`fkd gnl agy glvbrsbhy gccbdt `tobrgspbdts `c Zusskgs p`hkdy `n Gcfognkstgn, bspbdkghhy wobn kt dàbs t`dùntbrngrd`tkds gnl p`hktkdgh sbtthbabnt kssubs.

Kc tob ngrd`tkds torbgt ks strbssbl, tobn tob p`hkdy prk`rkty ks t` bnltob grabl d`nchkdt gnl prà`tb gn glbqugtb p`wbr-sogrknf gfrbbabntgs tob agkn d`nlktk`n c`r bnsurknf aknkagh cundtk`nghkty gnl hbfktkagdy`c f`vbrngndb j`to kn Igjuh gnl kn tob sùto (wktoùt wokdo n` lrufd`ntr`h gnl dùntbrngrd`tkds abgsurbs stgnl g dogndb). C`r Zusskg,toks ghs` kaphkbs togt tob bnl `c R.T./NG\@ akhktgry prbsbndb gs gnbdbssgry d`nlktk`n c`r tob stgrt `c abgnknfcuh kntrg-Gcfogn p`hktkdghnbf`tkgtk`ns soùhl gdtughhy jb wbhdàb, bvbn gs dàphbtb Vbstbrnlksbnfgfbabnt crà Gcfognkstgn, bspbdkghhy kn tbras `c rbd`nstrudtk`ngnl lbvbh`pabnt gsskstgndb, ks unlbskrgjhb.

@nb wgy t` jghgndb tobsb tw` gspbdts `c Zusskgs sbdurkty p`hkdyks t` hkni toba t` lkccbrbnt dbntbrs `c frgvkty, k.b. t` d`nsklbr tob torbgt


21/21


`c spkhh-`vbr `c tbrr`rksa/knstgjkhkty prkagrkhy kn o`w kt gccbdts DbntrghGskg, wokhb hbttknf ngrd`tkds-rbhgtbl d`ndbrn phgy g hgrfbr r`hb knlkrbdtknf Zusskgs p`hkdy `n Gcfognkstgn gs sudo. Kn cgdt, g lbfrbb `csudo jghgndb agy jb babrfknf. \obrb ks ghs` gt hbgst `nb h`wbstdàa`n lbnàkngt`r5 Zusskgs fbnuknb kntbrbst kn kapr`vbl sbdurkty

gnl f`vbrngndb dgpgdkty kn Gcfognkstgn. \oks kapbrgtkvb ks drktkdgh tòblfb j`to gfgknst dr`ss-j`rlbr spkhh-`vbrs `c akhktgndy gnl knstgjkhktyt` Dbntrgh Gskg gnl gfgknst tob hgrfbstgnl tob `nhy lkrbdttorbgt c`rtob Zusskgn s`dkbty crà Gcfognkstgn, p`sbl jy obr`kn trgcckdiknf.

C`r lruf d`ntr`h gnl dùntbrngrd`tkds, Zusskg wkhh ogvb t` rbhy `nwogtbvbr f`vbrngndb wkhh jb kn phgdb kn Gcfognkstgn. Fkvbn tob ngtk`n-wklb, dr`ss-rbfk`ngh sdghb `c tob Gcfogn `pkua bd`này, Zusskg wkhhnbbl t` prà`tb g dùntbrngrd`tkds gfbnlg `n kts `wn gnl/`r torùfokntbrablkgrkbs, n`t `nhy wkto Igjuhs dbntrgh f`vbrnabnt (rbfgrlhbss `ctob dàp`sktk`n `c cuturb d`ghktk`n grrgnfbabnt), jut ghs` wktowoàbvbr bxbrdksbs g lbfrbb `c f`vbrngndb gnl d`ntr`h kn

Gcfognkstgns agkn lruf-pr`ludknf grbgs kn tob sùto, gs wbhh gs wktotob p`hktkdgh c`rdbs kn n`rtobrn Gcfognkstgn.

Kn grbgs wobrb lruf bd`này ks dàpùnlbl jy g pr`trgdtblgrabl d`nchkdt, tobrb ks n` s`hutk`n t` tob lruf pr`jhba wktoùt gs`hutk`n t` tob d`nchkdt. Gs h`nf gs tob grabl d`ncr`ntgtk`n d`ntknubs, ktwkhh kapblb gny cundtk`ngh f`vbrngndb kn grbgs gccbdtbl jy j`to lrufsgnl d`nchkdt. Gnl, kn gjsbndb `c cundtk`ngh f`vbrngndb, nbktobr s`ct n`rtùfo dùntbrngrd`tkds abgsurbs, n`r g dàjkngtk`n `c hgwbnc`rdbabnt gnl lbvbh`pabnt s`hutk`ns wkhh w`ri. Vktoùt c`rbkfnsbdurkty jgdiknf, tob wbgi dbntrgh f`vbrnabnt stgnls hktthb dogndb tìbbp `r bstgjhkso d`ntr`h kn tob sùto. Knstbgl, bvbn aknkaghhy

cundtk`ngh f`vbrngndb tobrb rbqukrbs g p`hktkdgh s`hutk`n gt tob ngtk`nghhbvbh gnl g p`wbr-sogrknf grrgnfbabnt knv`hvknf tob d`rb `c tob\ghkjgn-hbl knsurfbndy.

Vokhb nbf`tkgtk`ns wkto tob knsurfbndy ogvb jbbn unhkibhy wktoaudo `c tob c`rbkfn akhktgry prbsbndb stkhh kn phgdb, toby agy stgnl gjbttbr dogndb gs c`rbkfn c`rdbs lbpgrt.

Zusskg ks n`t g lbdkskvb phgybr `n tob kntrg-Gcfogn p`hktkdgh/pbgdbpr`dbss, jut togt l`bs n`t abgn togt tobrb ks n`toknf togt Zusskg dgnl` t` knlkrbdthy cgdkhktgtb toks pr`dbss. Zusskgs gppr`gdo t` g p`hktkdghsbtthbabnt kn Gcfognkstgn ogs ghh dogndbs t` d`ntknub t` bv`hvbt`wgrls jbdàknf hbss klb`h`fkdgh gnl a`rb prgfagtkd.

Zusskg soùhl supp`rt gny p`hktkdgh s`hutk`n c`r Gcfognkstgn togtdùhl kndrbgsb tob cundtk`nghkty gnl hbfktkagdy `c tob Gcfogn stgtb. Knprgdtkdgh tbras, `nb toknf Zusskg dùhl d`nsklbr ks t` puso tob c`rabrN`rtobrn Ghhkgndb pgrtkbs (wkto woà kt ibbps d`ntgdts gnl agy rbtgknsàb hbvbrgfb) t`wgrls gddbptknf g ngtk`ngh p`wbr-sogrknfgrrgnfbabnt knv`hvknf bhbabnts `c tob \ghkjgn knsurfbndy gnl gt tobsgab tkab t` `ccbr gllktk`ngh, c`ragh `r knc`ragh, supp`rt t` tobN`rtobrnbrs t` gt hbgst pgrthy ghhbvkgtb tobkr fbnuknb d`ndbrns gjùt tobcuturb p`hktkdgh gnl f`vbrngndb systba.

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