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Afghanistan
The demographic background
David Redfern
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Basic demographic data
• Total population: 30.6 million (2013)
• Predictions: 39.6 million by 2025, 56.5 million by 2050
• Birth rate: 37 per 1,000
• Death rate: 9 per 1,000
• Growth rate: 2.8%
• % population under 15 years: 49%
• % population over 65: 2%
• Median age: 18.1 years
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Afghanistan: stage 2 of the DTM
• Wide base, i.e. the birth
rate is high.
• The sides in the lower part
do not narrow in as quickly
as those higher up,
showing lower death rate
among the young. This
indicates lower infant and
child mortality rates.
• The death rate is
decreasing — the
population is growing.
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Population by age group in Afghanistan and four south Asian countries
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
More demographic data
• Net migration rate: –5% (a net loss of people from migration)
• Infant mortality rate: 71 per 1,000 live birthds (high)
• Maternal mortality rate: 4.60 per 1,000 live births (high)
• Fertility rate: 5.4 per woman (high)
• Life expectancy: 60 years for the total population (males: 59 years, females:
61 years)
• Urban population: 24%
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Some social indicators• Population density: 47 per km2
• GNI PPP per capita (2012): $1,400
• Share of national income: poorest 5th have 9%, wealthiest 5th have 37%
• Using modern sanitation: urban 46%, rural 23%
• Literacy rates (over 15s who can read/write):
• total 28.1% (male 43.1% female 12.6%)
• School life expectancy (no. of years in full-time education):
• total pop 9 years (male 11 years, female 7years)
• Children (5–14 years) in the labour force: 25%
• Provision of doctors: 0.19 per 1,000 people (UK: 2.77)
• Population with AIDS (15–49 years): <0.1% (very low)
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Women in Afghanistan
• Women aged 15–49 (2013): 6.8 million
• Lifetime births per woman: 5.4
• Women aged 20–24 who gave birth by the age 18: 26%
• Mother’s median age of giving birth: 21 years
• W omen aged 15–49 using contraception: 21%
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Female population by age/marital status (2009)
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Women, marriage and child-bearing
• Marital status is a key social element in Afghan society. The graph on the
previous slide shows that after 40 years of age very few women remain
unmarried.
• In the age group 25–39 years only 4% of women remain unmarried.
• Marriage is the key determinant of women’s fertility and child bearing.
• Early child-bearing is a risk to women’s health.
• It contributes significantly to the existence of large families.
• Girls married before puberty are likely to have more children and this is a
major risk factor to maternal health.
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Male population by age/marital status (2009)
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Widowhood• The graph on the previous slide shows that only 14% of males married early
— between ages 15 and 24. The difference between men and women is
clearly visible from the two graphs of their marital status. Women tend to
marry earlier than men and a higher percentage of women become widowed
earlier.
• The incidence of widowhood increases as age increases, particularly for
women. The figures show that around 3% and 17% of men aged 45–64 and
65+ years respectively were widowers. The corresponding data for women
were 19% and 61%.
• The major causes of the large number of widowed females are: (a) the high
male mortality in the past due to conflict in the country, (b) the large age
differences between spouses.
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Education of girls
• Under the Taliban regime girls in Afghanistan were barred from attending
school. They started to go to school in larger numbers from 2002.
• Some families in highly conservative parts of Afghanistan, such as the
southern and eastern regions, still deny girls the right to schooling.
• The destruction of schools has been increasing over the years. In 2009 alone,
a total of 112 Afghan schools were attacked, burned or destroyed, compared
to a cumulative total of 192 schools in 2005–07. Out of these 112 schools, 21
were primary schools, 45 were middle schools, and 43 were high schools.
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Afghanistan into the future: 2025
In 2025, stage 3 of
the DTM will be
reached.
Birth rate will be
slow to reduce due to
deeply ingrained
traditions.
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Afghanistan into the future: 2050
It is predicted
that it will take
until 2050 to
reach stage 4 of
the DTM
Afghanistan Afghanistan: the demographic background
Sources
CIA The World Factbook
Data sheet. (Population Reference Bureau)
‘Women and men in Afghanistan 2011’, Central Statistics Organisation (CSO)
(Afghanistan government) 2012
Ministry of Women’s Affairs (Afghanistan government) 2012
Students may also wish to read the novels of Khaled Hosseini as they provide
excellent background.
This resource is part of GEOGRAPHY REVIEW, a magazine written for A-
level students by subject experts. To subscribe to the full magazine go
to www.hoddereducation.co.uk/geographyreview