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Africa within the global pharmaceutical market
In 2016, global pharmaceutical revenues totalled over US$ 1,105 billion and are forecast to reach US$ 1,400 billion by 2021, especially thanks to the growth in “pharmerging” countries1. The African Continent only accounts for 0.7% of this market (ten African countries2 represent 70% of the Continent’s revenues on their own).
1. Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, Tunisia.
1. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Libya, Marocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda
Source: McKinsey, Africa: A Continent of Opportunity for Pharma and Patients, April 2015Source: McKinsey, Africa: A Continent of Opportunity for Pharma and Patients, April 2015
1. China, Brazil, Russia, India, Algeria, Argentina, Colombia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Philippines, Turkey, Romania, Chile, Kazakhstan, Vietnam.
2. Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, Tunisia.
Source: IQVIA Institute; World Health Organisation (WHO)
49%
North America
21.8%
Europe
21.7%
Asia- Pacific
4.6%
Latin America 0.7%
Africa
2.2%
Turkey, Middle-East-
Eurasia
The African pharmaceutical market is booming
The African pharmaceutical market was worth US$ 19.9 billion in 2012 and is forecast to grow to US$ 50 billion by 2020, driven by the Continent’s demographic boom inter alia.
Rest of Africa
Top 15 countries1
Market size, US$ billions
2020, OPTIMISTIC2020, REALISTIC2010
66.5
58.7
7.852.2
7.1
45.1
17.5
14.5
3.0
201220062000
19.9
14.1
5.8
7.9
2.5
10.4
3.0
1.2
4.2
Rest of Africa
Top 10 countries1
1 8
P R I V A T E S E C T O R & D E V E L O P M E N T
K E Y F I G U R E S
A population forecast to boom
Population of Africa (millions)
Source : United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, 2015, IQVIA Institute
Source : IQVIA Institute
2015 2030 2050 2100
4,3872,478
1,679
1,186
Average annual growth in pharmaceutical sales (2011 – 2016)
6%
Morocco
9%
Algeria
14%
Egypt
8%
South Africa
COUNTRIES WITH STRONG GROWTH
13%
Nigeria
17%
Kenya
12%
Botswana
COUNTRIES WITH STRONG ACTIVITY
Nigeria
Kenya
Botswana
Morocco
Algeria
Egypt
SouthAfrica 1 9
Pharmaceutical industry and emerging marketsPharmaceutical supply chains in emerging markets
Source: International Finance Corporation (IFC), Private Sector Pharmaceutical Distribution and Retailing in Emerging Markets , 2017
PUBLIC SECTORPRIVATE SECTORLEVELS
International
National
Regional
District
Community
Multinational Suppliers
Local Manufacturers
Local Wholesalers
Distributor
Shops, Pharmacies
International Procurement Agencies
Government Supply Services
• Product Cards
• Procurement Unit
• Import Unit
• Inventory Control Unit
• Finance Unit
• Medical Strores
Regions• Medical Stores
• Hospitals
Regions• Medical Stores
• Hospitals
• Health Center
Community Health Workers
Community Health Workers
Patients
Multilateral Organizations
Local NGO Field Agencies
Regions• Mission Hospitals
Districts• Churches
• Health Center
3PL Logistics Providers
NGO
Source: International Finance Corporation (IFC), Private Sector Pharmaceutical Distribution and Retailing in Emerging Markets, 2017
Average mark-ups on medicines in emerging markets
CIF/TAX MARKUP IMPORTER MARKUP WHOLESALERS MARKUP SUB-WHOLESALERS MARKUP
RETAILERS GENERIC MARKUP
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
+5-10%
+25-30%
+25-50%
+75% (25%)
+50-80%There will often be
multiple sub-wholesalers in the supply chain, each of whom add a markup
of mark-up of approx. 25%Markups for
Branded Products can have markups starting from 25%, on average 260% and, in extreme
cases, up to 500%
Drug flow in traditional CM $ system
Alternative drug flow (planned and unplanned)
Information flow
2 0
P R I V A T E S E C T O R & D E V E L O P M E N T
K E Y F I G U R E S
Proportion of deaths due to non-communicable
diseases in Africa in 2012
Consolidation of pharmaceutical distributors and retail chains
Source: International Finance Corporation (IFC), Private Sector Pharmaceutical Distribution and Retailing in Emerging Markets, 2017
RESTRICTED BY LAW OR
REGULATION
Retail pharmacy or wholesaler/distributor
consolidation is restricted by national law or
regulation
Cambodia
Cameroon
Côte d’Ivoire
Uganda
Egypt
Morocco
Turkey
Vietnam
CONSOLIDATED
50%+ of the retail pharmacy market is consolidated into an
oligopoly
Mali
US
UK
Philippines
MODERATE CONSOLIDATION
National or city-level retail pharmacy chains
exist
South Africa
Latin America, Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Chile
China
INITIAL CONSOLIDATION
Initial stage of market consolidation with more than one retail pharmacy
chain growing beyond 5 stores
Ghana
Algeria
India
MOSTLY FRAGMENTED
Thousands of wholesalers/distributors
with no clear set of market leaders
Malawi
Mozambique
Nigeria
Sudan
Guatemala
Kazakhstan
DE
SC
RIP
TIO
NE
XA
MP
LE
CO
UN
TR
IES
CA
TE
GO
RY
Source: World Health Organisation (WHO), Noncommunicable Diseases Country Profiles, 2014
Data not available
75% or more
50% to 74%*
35% to 49 %
25% to 34 %
Less than 25%
*Includes only Cape Verde, 69%
+1
2 1