Impact through Insight

Africa’s Contemporary Security Challenges

Washington, 12th Sept 2018

The Case of South Sudan

Luka KuolAfrica Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS)

Outline

2

1. Why Civil War in South Sudan?

2. Navigating the Competing Regional Interests

3. The UN and International Community

4. Trajectories Facing South Sudan

Why Civil War in South Sudan?

4

Source: McCandless, E., 2018. “Forging Resilient Social Contracts for Peace”

Mediation and Regional Dynamics

5

Mediation and Regional Dynamics

6

Crisis of Mediation and Armed Groups

7

Source: CEPO

Peter GadatArmed

Youth

Red Devils (NRF/M) Divided

into

(SPLM-IO, NAS & SPLM -IO-

Yei peace accord team)

Maban

armed youth

Shullik armed Group

(Agwlelekforces –party SPLM-IO &

NDM)

Arrow Boys

(Partly SPLM-

IO)

NyraguwahDivided into (SPLM-IO & Independent

Movement, NAS )

Wau BoysDivided partly in SPLM-IO

White Army

Monymigii divided into (

SPLM-IO & NAS)

Toposa

armed

youth

(Party

NAS and NDM)

M undari

Armed

youth

Murle

Armed

youth (

partlyNAS)

Active armed

cattle

raiding

Zone

Borarmed Youth

P opular Front

for

D em ocratic

R eform and

P an-A frican N ational

G uard

A rm ed A nyuak

com m unity of

P ochalla

petitions for

separate state

South Sudan

P atriotic

A rm y (SSPA )

Bandama in Tore

Mathiang Anyoor

Rebel under SPLA division two Chan

Garang Lual(South Sudan

U nited Front )

Pan African group

by late commander, AnyarAnyar

South Sudan United Liberation Movement/Army

Brig. Gen. Zachariah

Monyjiek BaguotKiir

Eastern Front

ArmyBy: Abdallah Albert

Mediation and Proliferation of Armed Groups

8

SPLM-IO (RM)

Outbreak of conflict

REMNASA

ARCISS signed

FDP

TFNF

SSNLM

SSPPF

SSAF

Machar returns to Juba

IMLR

Machar flees Juba

SPLM-IO (TDG)

NDM

SSLM

SSNMC

UDRA

NAS

SSPM

HLRF announced

SSUM

SSDF

NPAF

HLRF commences

SSUF

Oct-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Feb-18

Source: Deng, D. 2018 (forthcoming). “Who is Who in South Sudan”

The Efforts of UN Mission and International Actors

9

Trajectories for South Sudan?

10

• The Status Quo

• The Hobbesian State

• Pathways to Stability

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