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After ISIS—Stability and Spillover A one-day conference to support the Special Operation Forces Community through the exchange of ideas and academic expertise. The Laboratory for Unconventional Conflict Analysis and Simulation (LUCAS) at Duke University is proud to host “After ISIS—Stability and Spillover,” a one-day conference featuring guest speakers, panel discussions, and agency leaders on November 4, 2016 in Durham, North Carolina. Purpose

The goal is to support the Special Operation Forces (SOF) community’s strategic planning and forward posturing through academic expertise. The underlying premise of this event is that defeating ISIS militarily, retaking Mosul, Raqqa, and other territory in Iraq and Syria, will not completely eliminate them as a threat. The intellectual motivation for this conference is the question: what are the greatest challenges and opportunities to peace and stability after the military defeat of ISIS?

Other related lines of questioning include: What activities are being conducted at present that set the proper conditions for post conflict stabilization? How can the further spread of this deadly ideology be prevented in these regions of interest? How likely, extensive, and important is the potential convergence of fleeing ISIS foreign fighters and criminal networks? Will Russia use this foreign fighter flow as a pretext for expansion or military adventurism? Structure There will be three panels during the conference. One on the after effects in Iraq and Syria, another on the impact of foreign fighter flow from Iraq/Syria through Turkey into Europe, with a focus on Southeastern Europe (the Balkans), and lastly, a panel focused on the effects of these scenarios on U.S.-Russia relations. Each panel will have three speakers, subject matter experts, and two discussants. One of the two discussants will be an academic, the other will be a practitioner/inter-agency partner. The conference will conclude with a keynote speaker. Sponsors

U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and the Laboratory for Unconventional Conflict Analysis and Simulation

Co-sponsors include the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, Duke Program in American Grand Strategy, and the Social Science Research Institute at Duke University.

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Panel 1 | After ISIS: The Search for Peace and Stability in Iraq and Syria

PANELISTS Cori Dauber Professor of Communication at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Research Fellow at the Triangle Institute for Security Studies (TISS)

Dauber’s research focus is the communication strategies of terrorist groups, with a particular interest in their use of visual imagery. She is co-editor of Visual Propaganda and Extremism in the Online Environment, (US Army War College Press, 2014) and the author of YouTube War: Fighting in a World of Cameras in Every Cell Phone and Photoshop on Every Computer, (US Army War College Press, 2010.) She was also Visiting Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College.

Raymond Baker Professor of International Politics at Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut The author of a series of critically acclaimed studies of Islamic and Arab societies, Baker was designated as a Carnegies Scholar in Islamic Studies for 2006–2008. His most recent book is Islam Without Fear, published by Harvard Press. Baker consults periodically for the State Department, the Department of Defense, USAID, and the Pentagon, among others. A past president of the International Association of Middle East Studies, he is currently a governing board member of the European-based World Congress of Middle East Studies. He is also President of Global Partners of the International University of Iraq, a Governing Board member of the International Center for Contemporary Middle Eastern Studies, Northern Cyprus, and a founding member of the International Association of Contemporary Iraqi Studies. Ibrahim al-Assil Resident Fellow at the Middle East Institute Syrian political analyst and civil society activist Al-Assil’s work focuses on the Syrian conflict with an emphasis on different aspects of security, civil society, political Islam, and political economy. He is the president and a co-founder of the Syrian Nonviolence Movement, an NGO formed in 2011 to promote peaceful struggle and civil resistance as a way to achieve social, cultural, and political change in Syrian government and society.

Sarah Shields Bowman and Gordon Gray Distinguished Term Professor of History at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Shields is currently researching the long-term impact of the League of Nations on the Middle East. Her class offerings include Introduction to Islamic Civilization, History of Iraq, A Century of Protest in the Middle East, The Modern Middle East, Revolution in the Modern Middle East, Women in the Middle East, and The Middle East and the West. Her book, Mosul before Iraq:

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Like Bees Making Five-Sided Cells (State University Press of New York, 2000), analyzes the economy and society of nineteenth-century Mosul and the region surrounding it.

Andrew March Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University March’s research interests include Islamic political thought, Islamic law, religion and political theory, and comparative political theory. He is presently working on a project that examines modern Islamic justifications and characterizations of shari’a as a socio-political doctrine appropriate for “all times and places,” focusing in particular on the uses of theological anthropology and moral psychology. His course offerings include Islamic Law & Ethics as well as Terrorism, Ethics, and Rule of Law. DISCUSSANTS Academic Discussant: David Schanzer Associate Professor of the Practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University Director of the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security Schanzer is the lead author of a widely-cited National Institute of Justice study on domestic radicalization titles “Anti-Terror Lessons of Muslim Americans” (2010) and a report titled “Improving Strategic Risk Management at the Department of Homeland Security,” published by the IBM Center for the Business of Government. He is a member of the Countering Violent Extremism Leadership Forum and has been a Research Fellow for the National Intelligence Council. Prior to his academic appointments, Schanzer was the Democratic staff director for the House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security from 2003 to 2005.

Practitioner Discussant: Captain Todd Veazie

Experienced senior decision maker, national security entrepreneur, career Naval Special Warfare (SEAL) officer

Captain Veazie earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Marine Science from the University of South Carolina and was commissioned in 1986. After commissioning he reported to Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL training and graduated in Class 140. He has served in Eat and West Coast SEAL Teams, the Naval Special Warfare Development Group, and numerous staff assignments, including serving as a Commanding Officer three times. He is the former Executive Director of Joining Forces in the Office of the First Lady at the White House.

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Panel 2 | After ISIS: Foreign Fighters and European Security PANELISTS Milada Vachudova Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Chair of the Curriculum in Global Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Vachudova specializes in the democratization of postcommunist Europe, the enlargement of the European Union, and the impact of international actors on domestic politics.

David Siegel Associate Professor of Political Science at Duke University His research addresses the theoretical determinants of collective action in the contexts of political violence and terrorism, elections, and opinion and identity formation. His course offerings focus on terrorism, institutions, game theory, and research methods.

Mustafa Ozgur Tuna Assistant Professor of Slavic and Eurasian Studies at Duke University

Tuna’s research focuses on social and cultural change among the Muslim communities of Central Eurasia, especially the Volga-Urals region and modern Turkey, since the early-nineteenth century. He is particularly interested in identifying the often-intertwined roles of Islam, social networks, state or elite interventions, infrastructural changes, and the globalization of European modernity in transforming Muslim communities. John Pickles Phillips Distinguished Professor of International Studies in the Department of Geography at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Pickles is an economic geographer trained in political economy and development studies, cultural and social theory, and continental philosophy. His research currently focuses on global production networks, European economic and social spaces particularly post-socialist transformations in Central Europe and Euro-Med Neighborhood Policies in Southern Europe. He also works on the cultural economies of maps and mapping, counter-mapping, and the use of maps in social movements. Rukmini Callimachi Foreign correspondent for The New York Times

As a journalist, Callimachi has covered Islamic extremism, including Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. She is a three-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, the winner of the Michael Kelly award, and the first journalist in the 75-year history of the Overseas Press Club to win both the Hal Boyle and the Bob Considine awards the same year.

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Helga Tawil-Souri Associate Professor of Media, Culture and Communications at Steinhardt and Director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center at New York University She focuses on spatiality, technology, and politics in the Middle East and especially Israel/Palestine, and methodologically incorporates political economy, visual and cultural studies, and cultural geography. Broadly, her work critiques the notion that we live in an increasingly open and borderless world, by analyzing how technologies and their infrastructures are explicitly territorial and political and often impose new forms of borders and controls. She is equally fascinated by how spaces and things that are overtly territorial and political — borders and identification cards, for example — themselves function in cultural ways.

Robert Jenkins Senior Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Jenkins served as Director of the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies from July 2001 to July 2015. He joined the program in 1999 as Administrative Director for Curricula and was primarily responsible for coordinating the MA degree program, which was introduced that year. His scholarly interests are in the areas of social and political change, political conflict, state building, civil society and the nonprofit sector, and education. Jytte Klausen Lawrence A. Wien Professor of International Cooperation at Brandeis University Affiliate at the Center for European Studies at Harvard University Her most recent books are The Cartoons That Shook the World about the Danish cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad and the worldwide protests that followed their publication, and The Islamic Challenge: Politics and Religion in Western Europe, which was translated into German and Turkish. Klausen is the founder of the Western Jihadism Project, a data collection and archive focused on Islamist extremist groups in the West. She leads a team at Brandeis University who are studying Islamist terrorist networks. Klausen has written for Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, the Boston Globe, and other outlets, and she is a regular commentator on the BBC, Voice of America, and other media. She has also frequently been consulted by government agencies in the U.S. and Western Europe.

DISCUSSANTS Academic Discussant: Kyle Beardsley Associate Professor of Political Science at Duke University

His research interests include the political consequences and causes of third-party involvement in peace processes, the nature of intrastate rebellion, the motivations for and implications of gender balancing in post-conflict security forces, and the effects of nuclear-weapons proliferation on crisis behavior. His book, The Mediation Dilemma, explores how third-party conflict management frequently does well in securing short-term peace but also can contribute to greater instability in the long run, especially when the third parties rely on leverage.

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Practitioner Discussant: Ian Brzezinski American foreign policy and military affairs expert

Brzezinski served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy (2001–05). His office formulated, coordinated, and executed bilateral and regional engagement strategies and defense guidance with the Joint Staff, Unified Combatant Commands, and Defense Department elements. His lead responsibilities included NATO expansion; Alliance force planning and transformation; and NATO operations in the Balkans, the Mediterranean, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Key highlights of his tenure include the expansion of NATO membership in 2004; the consolidation and reconfiguration of the Alliance's command structure; the standing up of the NATO Response Force; and the coordination of European military contributions to US and NATO-led operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans. Panel 3 | After ISIS: U.S.-Russia Relations PANELISTS Stuart Kaufman Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware Kaufman served on the US National Security Council staff. He teaches courses in international security affairs, diplomacy, US foreign policy, ethnic conflict and Russian politics. In 2011, he taught at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna on a Fulbright scholarship. His books since 2007 include the co-edited volume, The Balance of Power in World History (Palgrave); and his latest book Nationalist Passions, Cornell University Press.

Cathy Packer W. Horace Carter Distinguished Professor Co-Director, UNC Center for Media Law and Policy

Author of the book Freedom of Expression in the American Military: A Communication Modeling Analysis, her two major research interests are reporter’s privilege law and the use of law to define the power relationships among groups in society. Packer has worked on free press projects in Albania, Jordan and Russia.

Martin A. Miller Professor of History at Duke University Specializes in international terrorist movements and Russian history.

Steven Rosefielde Professor of Economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Rosefielde is a member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences as well as an Adjunct Professor of National Security Affairs at Southwest Missouri State University. He has been

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actively involved in economic systems and global security research for decades with the American, Russian, Swedish and Japanese governments.

Klara Sabirianova Peter Professor of Economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Peter’s research focuses on behavioral responses of individuals and firms to public policies in a weak institutional environment. In the context of several transitional economies, she examined the effect of market reforms on the quality of life, worker flows, returns to human capital, and firm efficiency. Currently, she is pursuing a research agenda at the cross-roads of labor and public economics as applied to developing economies.

DISCUSSANTS Academic Discussant: Peter Feaver Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University Director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies (TISS Director of the Duke Program in American Grand Strategy (AGS) From June 2005 to July 2007, Feaver was on leave to be Special Advisor for Strategic Planning and Institutional Reform on the National Security Council Staff at the White House. In 1993-94, Feaver served as Director for Defense Policy and Arms Control on the National Security Council at the White House. He has published numerous monographs, scholarly articles, book chapters, and policy pieces on American foreign policy, public opinion, nuclear proliferation, civil-military relations, information warfare, and U.S. national security. Practitioner Discussant: Jack Matlock Jr. Career diplomat

During his 35 years in the American Foreign Service (1956-1991), Matlock served as Ambassador to the Soviet Union from 1987 to 1991, Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Senior Director for European and Soviet Affairs on the National Security Council Staff from 1983 until 1986 as well as Ambassador to Czechoslovakia from 1981 to 1983. Alternate Practitioner Discussant: Ambassador (ret) W. Robert Pearson Non-resident scholar at The Middle East Institute

He focuses on Turkey with particular emphasis on U.S.-Turkey relations. His areas of interest include Turkey’s relations with the EU, Russia, the Middle East, and Central and East Asia, in addition to the United States. Pearson is a retired professional Foreign Service Officer who served as U.S. ambassador to Turkey from 2000 to 2003. He was Director General of the U.S. Foreign Service from 2003 to 2006, repositioning the American Foreign Service to meet the new challenges of the 21st century and winning two national awards for his efforts. He served from 2008 to 2014 as president of IREX, an international development NGO based in Washington, spearheading its expansion to reach more than 125 countries worldwide. He has published numerous articles, blogs and opinion pieces on diplomacy, foreign policy, Turkey, NGOs, and

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development. He is a frequent speaker on issues concerning Turkey, international development and the role of diplomacy in American engagement abroad.

Alternates Abdeslam E. M. Maghraoui Associate Professor of Political Science at Duke University Maghraoui is core faculty in the Duke Islamic Studies Center and Duke University Middle East Studies Center. His research focuses on the interactions between culture and politics in the context of Arab and Muslim majority countries. His work encompasses three overlapping areas of research, that of political identity, political institutions, and political behavior and attitudes. His research addresses key political challenges facing states and societies in North Africa and the Middle East today. Among these are the questions of democratization, the role of religion in public life, youth empowerment, and governance.

Frank Griffel Professor of Islamic Studies and Chair of the Council on Middle East Studies at Yale University His research and teaching is on the intellectual history of Islam, its philosophy and theology (both classical and modern), and the way Islamic thinkers react to Western modernity. Much of his published work covers the contribution that al-Ghazali (d. 1111) made to the development of Islamic theology and the history of philosophy, be it written in Arabic, Latin, or Hebrew. Currently, Griffel conducts a research project on the formation of post-classical Islamic philosophy in the 12th century. Shai Tamari Associate Director of the Carolina Center for the Study of the Middle East and Muslim Civilizations at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tamari is also a lecturer under the Department of Public Policy and the Curriculum in Peace, War, and Defense. Born and raised in Jerusalem, Tamari served in the Israeli military between 1994 and 1997.

Shireen T. Hunter Research Professor in the Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service (SFS)

Hunter is currently working on a study on the role of religion in international relations funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. From 2007–2014 she was a visiting Professor at SFS and from 2005–2006 she also worked on a project on Reformist Islam also funded by the Carnegie Corporation. From 1983–1993, she was the Deputy Director of Middle East Program at the Center For Strategic and International Studies. From 1994 to 1998 She was a visiting scholar at the Center For European Policy Studies in Brussels. She has also served as Director of the Islam Program at CSIS. She has been a visiting scholar at Brookings Institutions and a research fellow at the Harvard Center for International Affairs.

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Charles Kurzman Professor of Sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Co-Director of the Carolina Center for the Study of the Middle East and Muslim Civilizations He is the author of The Missing Martyrs (2011), Democracy Denied, 1905-1915 (2008), and The Unthinkable Revolution in Iran (2004), as well as editor of the anthologies Liberal Islam (1998) and Modernist Islam, 1840-1940 (2002).

Omid Safi Professor of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies at Duke University Director of Duke Islamic Studies Center Columnist for On Being Safi specializes in Islamic mysticism (Sufism), contemporary Islamic thought and medieval Islamic history. He has served on the board of the Pluralism project at Harvard University and is the co-chair of the steering committee for the Study of Islam and the Islamic Mysticism Group at the American Academy of Religion. Laia Balcells Assistant Professor of Political Science at Duke University

Balcells’s research explores the determinants of political violence and civil wars, warfare dynamics during conflict, and redistribution and conflict. During the academic year of 2015–2016, Dr. Balcells served as a fellow at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance at Princeton University. Her first book, entitled Rivalry and Revenge: The Politics of Violence in Civil War is forthcoming at Cambridge University Press. Her recent publications include “Technology of Rebellion in the Syrian Civil War,” “Political Violence: An Institutional Approach,” “Rivalry and Revenge: Violence against Civilians in Conventional Civil Wars,” and “Endgame in Syria?”