After the Bangladesh Coups

8/3/2019 After the Bangladesh Coups

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After the Bangladesh CoupsAuthor(s): Stephen OrenReviewed work(s):Source: The World Today, Vol. 32, No. 1 (Jan., 1976), pp. 18-24Published by: Royal Institute of International AffairsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40395247 .

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After heBangladesh coupsSTEPHEN ORENThe overthrownd murder f SheikhMujiburRahman,generallyknown s SheikhMujib,bydisaffectedrmy fficers as but themostdramaticf he hreeoups hat ook lace nBangladeshn1975. heikhMujib'ssuspensionfdemocraticovernmentnJanuary,is downfallinAugust,nd theweekofturmoilnNovember romwhichGeneralZiaurRahman mergeds de factomilitaryictator aveprofoundlyaltered angladesh'soliticaltructure.ut he auses ndconsequencesof theseupheavals ofarbeyond he75 million eopleofBangladesh.The Indo-Soviet ictoryf 1971overPakistan nd herbackers,heUnited tates ndChina,now ookshollow. ndianhegemonynSouthAsia is once againthreatenedy Muslimunity.And since GeneralRahmanwho astNovember liminatedothhis Moderate' ivals,uchasGeneral halidMusharaf,ndhis extremist'ivals,heunior fficersof heBangladeshrmy, roposeso followhe amegeneral olicies,tleast nregardo nternationalffairs,s theregimefPresident hon-dakarMushtaqueAhmed, hetrend inceAugustmaybe taken s apointero thefuture.To explain he vents f astyear, speciallyn view fMrs Gandhi'ssuspensionfdemocracyn neighbouringndia1 nd SheikhMujib'screationfa one-partyuthoritarianystem,ne should ook at bothdomesticnd xternalactors. heregimehathe ndianArmynstalledin Dacca in197 was ntendeds a reflectionfNew Delhi democratic,socialist,ecular,ndcommittedo a rapid ise n ivingtandards. hecryof GaribiHatao (OutwithPoverty)tillresoundedn Delhi andSheikhMujib promised ispeople conomicmprovementithinhreeyears.n fact, angladesh as ess a reflectionf ndiathan caricatureof t. Bad as areIndia'sproblemsfoverpopulation,griculturalro-duction,ndustrialrowthndpolitical tability,hoseofBangladeshhavebeenfarworse.ndiahas everemalnutrition,angladesh asplainstarvation.ndia has industrialtagnation, angladeshacks ndustryand sdependentn ute exports.ndiahas430persons er quaremile,Bangladesh as1,270. ndia'srate f nflationas been25 percentperannum, angladesh's0 per ent. nsome reas fBangladesh,he rice1See W. H. Morris-Jones,WhoseemergencyIndia's or Indira's?',TheWorld odayNovember975.DrOren sAssistantrofessorfPolitical cience tTouroCollege, hicago.18


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BANGLADESHofrice,her taple ood, oseby400 percent n thefour ears ollowingindependence. hilenone f hese onditionsouldbe blamed n SheikhMujibandtheAwamiLeagueGovernment,hequite pectacularor-ruption, eachingll theway up to his close associates nd relatives,could.The inabilityo re-establishtable ivil dministrationincon-trast othecontinuedifrusty) perationf the ndian ivil ervicebecause fpersistentwami eague nterferenceould lso be ascribedto him.Againsthisbackground,heAugust oupcan be regardeds part fthePakistani eritage.n Pakistan n the1950s, hemilitaryad alsointervenedostop orruptndshort-sightedoliticaleaders rom rit-teringway he ssets f henation.Ironically,he deologicalncestorsof hepresent wami eague eaders adbeen he argetsf t east omeof hosenterventions).here, oo, hepoliticaleaders ad made t m-possible or hemoberemovedxcept y militaryoup.The Novem-bercoupsfollowed similar attern,or heMushtaqueAhmed egimeestablishedn Augusthad tried o maintain heikhMujib's civilianinstitutionsParliamentnd most f heCabinet). hese havenowbeenswept side.WhileMushtaqueAhmedwas a long-timewami eagueleader, henewPresident, bu Mohammed ayem,formerlyhiefJustice f Bangladesh,s a non-politicaligurehead.he Cabinet sdominatedythemilitaryndParliament as been bolished,lthoughMushtaqueAhmed's ledge orestoreemocracynFebruary 977hasbeenretained. he final ronys that t was preciselyuchcoupsinPakistan,arried utbythenon-Bengalirmy gainst oliticaleaderswhorepresentedheBengalimajority,hat lienated astBengalis.But externalausesrather han nternalifficultiesere robablyhemore ignificant.ver ince ndependencen197 ,theBangladeshrmy- descended rom ast Pakistan nits f theold Pakistan rmy hasbeen n nstitutionithout function.orthemaintainancef nternalordera role boutwhichnany aseSouthAsian oldiersre essthanenthusiastic)heikhMujib preferredorely n variousmilitias ied otheAwamiLeagueratherhan n the rmy.Although angladeshanhavebutonepotentialxternalnemy,ndia,Mujib'swhole olicywasbasedonfriendshipith, ot osaydependencen, ndia.The factionalrivalries hich xplodednNovembermongGeneral iaurRahman,GeneralKhalid Musharafwhobrieflyeldpowerduring weekofturmoil)nd a cliqueof uniorofficerseadedby MajorDalim (nowforcedntoThai exile)originatedn SheikhMujib's attempto controlthe rmy ydivide nd rule actics. utnoarmy nits ver orgothatthey adfoughtorBangladesh'sndependencehile heikhMujibsatina Pakistaniail andthe ther wami eague eadersincluding ush-taqueAhmed)resided n Calcuttahotel uites.Underthesecircum-stances,he rmy asnaturallyeglected,hemore oas the ndians ad

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THE WORLD TODAY January 976been arefulo removellheavy quipmentf heformerakistanrmybeforeeaving angladesh.Hostility o IndiaOver hepastfour ears, heBangladeshrmy's rowingostilityoIndia and ts lienation rom heikhMujibwerenoted ymany bser-vers.Norwere he oldiers lone nthese entiments.lmost romhemomentfBangladesh'sndependence, any f hercitizens ccusedIndiaof xploitingheirountryndtreatingt s an ndian olony.Wasit not a combinationfIndianmill-ownersthemselvesupportersfMrs Gandhi'sCongressn ndia)andcorruptwami eaguepoliticianswho perated smugglingacket herebyons futewere roughtromBangladeshnto ndiatobe usedby ndianmills nreturnor hoddyIndian manufacturedoods?Were notthe Indiansa little oo self-assertiven borderssues uch s thedemarcationf ones n theBayofBengalwhere,t is thought,il andnatural as maybe present? ndIndian plans to revive he portof Calcuttaby takingwaterfromthe GangesRiverwhich would otherwise lowthrough angladeshthreatened,r so peoplebelieved, artofthecountry ith easonaldrought.The most ociferousppositiono India camefrom hepro- hineseleft n Bangladeshwho rallied ound heaged eaderof theNationalAwami artyNAP),MaulanaBashani. ar fromhankingndiafor er1 71intervention,hey rgued hatwithoutta socialrevolutionouldhave aken lace nBangladesh, hichwould oonhavefound n echoin at leastpart f ndia. Butmanyright-wing'eople nBangladesh,who till alue slamic ymbolsndregretheneed opartwith akistan,are alsosuspicious f the ndians.MushtaqueAhmedwasthoughtohavebelongedo this ategory.utthen, s the ndianshavecausetoobserve,ver ince he ino-USrapprochement,hedifferencesetween'right'nd left'nmuch fSouthern sia have eased omatter: ow-evermuch heymay isagreen nternalolicy, oth re nti-ndian ndanti-Soviet.Indeed, hemood hatedtothe oup nDacca canbefound lsewherein SouthAsia. ndia's nsistencehat he nheritedritishrimacynthearea ndthat art f he est fher riendshipith reat owerswasthatthey id not ttemptoencouragether outhAsian tates odefy erforeignolicy as notbeenwelcomen therest fSouthAsia.Howeverimportanteligious isagreementsndtheKashmir uestion avebeenin Indo-Pakistanielations,akistan'snsistencehat hecanmakeherown oreignriendsasbeen n mportantontributingause ohostility.AndHinduNepalhasbeen s insistents Muslim akistanorat timesBuddhist eylon) nrejectingndianeffortsoestablish rotectorates.India's 1974annexationf Sikkimwhich, owever, ad never eena

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BANGLADESHfullyndependenttate) ekindledears f ndian xpansionnPakistan,Nepal sincemost f ikkim'snhabitantsreNepalis and, nofficially,inBangladesh.Weak national dentityBut reactionn Bangladesh gainst heikhMujib and his Indianpatrons ent ar eyondssuesof ndianmistakesr ndian rrogance.Anynationaldentity ustbe formedgainstanother'. nce the astPakistani orces ad eft angladesh,ew easons or nti-Pakistanenti-ment emained. angladesh'sconomicroubles,specially hen on-trasted ith akistan's ost- 71economicecovery, ade t difficultosustainheAwami eaguemythhat angladesh as goldenandwhoseproblemsesulted romWestPakistanixploitation.orBangladesh,sfor therouthAsian tates,he ogicalother'was ndia.Allthe iolenceof heBangladeshiberationtruggleannot onceal he nherent eak-nessofBangladesh's ationaldentity. surveymade fewyears eforethePakistan-Bangladeshplit howed hat hevastmajorityfrespon-dentsnamed heir istrict henaskedto givetheircountry',2hileeducatedpeople dentifiedhemselvess Pakistanis ather hanEastPakistanisrBengalis.

While hemilitaryeaders reunlikelyo solvemost fBangladesh'sproblems,hey houldbe considerablyettertgiving er a nationalidentityhan heikhMujib,despite is itle fBanglabandu'thefriendofBengal) nd alk fMujibism'. id Bangladesh'sistinctivenessrise,as the xtremeeftwould rgue, rom engalianguagendculture? hecountry'samewould mply hat.But what henofBangladesh's e-lationwith he HinduBengali peakers f the Indian states f WestBengal ndTripura? ducatedMuslimBangladeshisend obe ambi-valent n this ubject, ejoicingnthepoetryfTagore oneofwhosepoemsstheBangladesh ationalnthem)utrememberingith itter-nessthepre-1947xploitationfEastBengalbytheCalcutta-orientedHindu andlords ho fostered engali iterature.he major heme fEastBengali olitics rom 905on was theneed o befreed rom omi-nancebyHinduCalcutta. his thememadeEastBengal major entreofthePakistanmovement.n anycase,SheikhMujibcould not doptBengalinationalisms the raisond'tre fBangladeshince t wouldlogicallyeadeithero ncorporationn ndiaorco-operationith eces-sionist evolutionn WestBengal ndelsewheregainstndia.The IslamicheritageMujib's ndianmentors, ith heirnsistencensecularism,lsopre-vented imfrom sing he other nswer,hat fBangladesh'sslamicheritage: or ven f thisdid notsuggesthat he division f Islamic'2 nBengali heword orcountry*nd district' sthe ame *desh'

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THE WORLD TODAY January 976BangladeshromIslamic* akistan asamistake,tpointedo a Bangla-deshunlikelyo ookfor ndianguidance.Yet slam sclearlyhe trongestorce ithin angladesh.ven ntheimmediateftermathfthesecession rom akistan, ublic pressureimposed he continuancef Koranreadingsn the radio nd made tdifficultor lubstoserve lcohol o Muslim butnotHindu)Bangla-deshis. espite he cute roblemsf verpopulation,slamic ppositionalso nterferedith he nstitutionfbirth-controlrogrammes.enceitwasnot urprisinghatMajorDalimproclaimedhe oup astAugustinthename f he IslamicRepublic fBangladesh'.ut slamic oliticalforces, everwellorganizedn EastPakistan, ad been discreditedytheirupportfPakistann1970-1.Bangladesholiticswere fficiallycontestetween heikhMujib's ndian-orientedecularistsf heAwamiLeague which ad once itledtselfheAwamiMuslim eague)andtheChinese-orientedecularistsfthe eft, venthoughMaulanaBashanidid peak f Islamic ocialism' s the imof hepro-PekingAP. Ifthepresentmilitary-backedegime atronizesslamic ymbolsndfiguresitmaywellobtain onsiderableupport,speciallynrural reas, rompeoplequitecontentodispensewith hepoliticians.n somecountrydistrictsfBangladesh,nygovernmenthat ould restore modicumoforder gainst andits ndself-styleduerrillas,osaynothingfthe'counter'thugsf heAwami eague,wouldbe welcomenough.Nor is an Islamic tancewithoutragmaticaluefor oreign-policypurposes. s Indianthreatsndpromises avenow ostmuch ftheirpotencyor angladesh,ther atrons ave ppeared. akistan,fterll,survived heoil pricerisesfarmore asily han ndia orBangladesh:largelyecause fsubstantialidreceivedromran,Saudi Arabia ndother il-exportingtates, utnot eastbecause fPakistan's ole n theShah'svision f ran as a great ower.A Bangladesh otcommittedothe ndian idemightlsoobtain ome ranianupport,s Iran ontinuesher ubrosacompetitionithndiaforeadershipn the ndianOceanarea.AsPakistan'sslamicmage as n mportanteason hyhewas bleto obtain id,Bangladesh's ewrulers,onsciousf WorldBank tudywhich ut Bangladesh'sidneeds nthenext enerationt $16,000m.(since ndependence,angladesh asreceivedbout$2,000m.inaid),maywell mphasize errole s theworld's econd-largestslamic tate.Pakistan as, nfact, hefirsttate orecognizehepost-Mujib egime.AndSaudiArabia,who lways efusedo dealwith heikhMujib,recog-nizedhis uccessors.Improved elationswithUS and ChinaThe Islamicworld s nottheonly ource romwhichDacca's rulershope foraid. The rootsof thenewBangladesh egime o backtothedayswhen heentire wami eague eadershipexcept or heikh

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BANGLADESHMujibwhowas n Pakistaniail)sat nCalcutta otels. ajuddinAhmed(reportedxecuted fterheAugust oup)and others avouredndiaastheir atron,utMushtaqueAhmed elt heUS tobe the ogical ourceof upport. fterll, ndiacouldnot upport erself, uchessBangla-desh swell if he ouldhave, hewould robablyave nnexed angla-desh n 1 71).As for heSovietUnion, ndia'spatron, er ttentionnSouthAsia wasnaturallyocused n Indiaratherhan nBangladesh.Even the ndians, espiteMrsGandhi'spraise or hevirtuesf ndo-Soviet upee rade, avediscoveredhat oviet enerosityas imitsata timewhen ndia s in need ofcapitalmports,he s sustainingnetoutflowfcapital ecause f Soviet nsistencehat hedebts f he1971warberepaid.n any ase SovietRussia,whomust erselfmportargequantitiesffoodstuffs,s in nopositiono aid Bangladeshnthevitalareaoffood. hepopulationncreasef woyears equiresatstarvationratesof consumption)dded imported oodequivalent o halfthecountry'sxportarnings.Only heUnited tates s ina positionohelp.The 900,000 onsoffoodwhich heUS soldBangladeshn1974-5 tconcessionalateswerea vital ddition o herresources. orwere he$67m.given yAmericain other id unappreciated. lthough ntilnow theUS has givennoindicationhat hese igures illrisebecause f he hange fregimenDacca,Bangladesh'seadersmaywellhopefor uch ncreases. ertainlytheUS DepartmentfDefensewouldnotmiss heSoviet aval acilitiesat Chittagong,hichhaveremained inceBangladesh'sndependenceunder hepretextfport-clearingperations.In consideringewpotentialriends,hinamust eadded otheoddcombinationf heUS and the slamicworld. he Chinese penlywel-comed heAugust 975 oup nBangladesh.or tspart,henewregimewasgladto establish elations ithChina,blaminghepastfailureocreateies nthe olicies f heikhMujibratherhan n China's upportfor Pakistan n 1971. And pro-Chinese roupswithinBangladesh,MaulanaBashani'sNationalAwamiParty nd theCommunistarty(Marxist-Leninist)fAbdulHaque,hailed he oupfor heir wn easons.Thedarkeride s most videntnDelhi'sview f he oup.Oncemorean ndianArmy hinkingboutwarwith akistanmust onsiderhostilepresencen tsrear; ncemore iscussionsf potential arwith hinamust onsider Chinese hrusthroughikkim ndDarjeeling otheBangladesh order.Moreover,MaoistguerrillasnWestBengal,whomayhavereceiveddditions rom he ndianMarxist ommunistarty(CPM) sinceMrsGandhi'sJune akeover,s wellas tribal uerrillasamong heNagas and Mizos,nowhavethepossibilityfa guerrillasanctuary.twasnocoincidencehat fterheAugustoup nBangladeshthe ndianpress avegreat ttentiono a settlementith heNagasandMizos. Thatsome f hese larmistcenarios re mplausiblesunlikely

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THE WORLD TODAY January 976torestrainhe ndians' magination.bove ll,althoughMrsGandhi'sdefence olicy askept he ndianArmy appyas SheikhMujib'shadnot heBangladeshi)ndconditionsn ndiaaremuch etterhan hoseinBangladesh,he ndianPrimeMinister ndher ssociatesannot epleased hat narmyn SouthAsiahas ntervenednpoliticsooverthrowa left-of-centreeformistnddictatorialegime.Whenwill heir 5Aug-ust ome?An ncreasedeliance pon heSovietUnion againsthenewIslamic-Chinesehreat),ncreasedndianhostilityo the US (whichMrsGandhi as lreadyinked ithhe ppositiongainst er ndwhichmayyetbe accused f nstigatingheDacca events) ndadditional n-willingnessorelax ontrolsouldbe a logical esult ftheBangladeshcoups.Therehave, owever,een ontraryigns f n ndian ttemptorestore oodrelations ith he US andso preventhepolarizationfSouthAsia.In fact, residentMushtaqueAhmedmadeevery fforto reassurethe ndians.OncetheAugust ouphadbeencarried utsuccessfully,SheikhMujib'sname f People'sRepublic fBangladesh' asrevived,andthe ZiaurRahman egime askept t.The ideals of democracy,nationalism,ecularism,nd ocialism'were eiterated.ndthe ndians,while eploringheikhMujib'sdeath,nsistedhat heywouldnot nter-vene n Bangladesh'snternal ffairs.he SovietUnion,on theotherhand, irtuallyhreatenedangladesh ith uerrilla arfaref he devi-atedfromMujib'spolicies.Moreover,considerableumber fBangla-deshis,ncludinghe40,000armedmen whowere thebulliesofhisRakhiBahini, till evereheikhMujib'smemory,s shown uringhedays fGeneralMusharafs powernDaccawhen hedead eaderwaspraised ndhismurderers idely enounced. ecent eportsndicatethat he ndians, ndperhapsheRussians, avegiven heir lessingoa guerrillamovementnnorthernangladesh. ndone ofthemain n-ternal mphases fboththeMushtaqueAhmed nd ZiaurRahmanregimes asbeenthe ollectingfthe rms emainingn civilian andssince he 971war.Whetherhe ndianswere ehindGeneralMusharafsattemptoseizepowernNovembersnotknown althoughhey er-tainly ejoiced uringhefewdayswhenhe was nauthority.In all,however,heAugustndNovemberoupsmay omewhatm-proveBangladesh'sather opeless osition. military-civilianegimewhich tressesslamicvalues andsoundadministrationill notsolveBangladesh's rave conomic roblems,ut t s an improvementverthecorruptionnddisorder fSheikhMujib'srule althoughmilitarygovernmentsanalsobecome orrupt. more ragmatictyle f cono-micplanning ould ertainlyehelpful. nda regimehat ucceedsnobtainingdditionalidfromny ource,ndrelief romheunbearablepressuresf isingilandwheat rices,s agovernmentith successfulforeignolicy. ythesemodest riteria,he egimefPresidentayemandGeneralRahmanmay fferomehopeforhe uture.

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After the Bangladesh Coups