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The New NCCI Hazard Groups Greg Engl, PhD, FCAS, MAAA National Council on Compensation Insurance CASE Fall Meeting September 13, 2006

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The New NCCI Hazard Groups Greg Engl, PhD, FCAS, MAAA National Council on Compensation Insurance CASE Fall Meeting September 13, 2006. Agenda. History of previous work Methodology employed Impact of remapping. Current Hazard Groups. Assigning Classes to HGs. Prior NCCI Method - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Agenda

The New NCCI Hazard Groups

Greg Engl, PhD, FCAS, MAAA

National Council on Compensation Insurance

CASE Fall MeetingSeptember 13, 2006

Page 2: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Agenda

•History of previous work

•Methodology employed

• Impact of remapping

Page 3: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

Current Hazard Groups

HG Number of

ClassesStandard Premium

% of Total Premium

I 40 1,262,958,374 0.9%

II 417 67,150,463,296 45.5%

III 303 75,288,994,325 51.1%

IV 100 3,623,213,832 2.5%

Page 4: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

Assigning Classes to HGs

•Prior NCCI Method

•California Approach

•ELF Based Method

Page 5: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

Prior NCCI Method

•Hazardousness

• “Excess loss potential”

Page 6: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

For each state, the following seven quantities were measured by class and expressed as ratios to the corresponding statewide value:

Claim FrequencyIndemnity Pure PremiumIndemnity SeverityMedical Pure PremiumMedical SeverityTotal Pure PremiumSerious Severity (including Medical)

Hazardousness Variables

Page 7: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

California Methodology

•Group classes with similar loss distributions together

•Need to precisely define ‘similar’

Page 8: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

Crossover

Excess Loss Factors

LossLimit O P

25,000 0.643 0.660600,000 0.098 0.082

Hazard Group

Page 9: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

CrossoverCalifornia ELF Curves

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Per Accident Limit ($M)

Lo

ss E

lim

inati

on

Rati

o

J

K

L

M

N

O

P

Q

R

1 2 3 5 104 6 7 8 9

Page 10: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

CrossoverCalifornia ELF Curves

0.060

0.065

0.070

0.075

0.080

0.085

0.090

0.095

0.100

$1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 $2,000,000 $2,200,000

Per Accident Limit

Lo

ss E

lim

inati

on

Rati

o

J

M

R

Page 11: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

HG Remapping Rationale

•What are HGs used for?

•Determining ELFs

Page 12: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

Excess Loss Pure Premium Factors (Applicable to New and Renewal Policies)

Per Accident Hazard GroupsLimitation I II III IV

$25,000 0.701 0.727 0.813 0.865$30,000 0.675 0.703 0.794 0.850*$35,000 0.651 0.682 0.777 0.837$40,000 0.630 0.662 0.761 0.824*$50,000 0.593 0.628 0.732 0.802*$75,000 0.521 0.561 0.674 0.754

$100,000 0.466 0.509 0.628 0.714*$125,000 0.422 0.466 0.589 0.680$150,000 0.386 0.430 0.555 0.650$175,000 0.355 0.399 0.525 0.623$200,000 0.328 0.373 0.498 0.598$250,000 0.285 0.329 0.452 0.555$300,000 0.251 0.294 0.413 0.517$500,000 0.167 0.205 0.308 0.406

$1,000,000 0.088 0.117 0.188 0.262$2,000,000 0.045 0.064 0.108 0.155$5,000,000 0.020 0.032 0.053 0.075

* Also applicable to Underground Coal Mine classifications.

Kentucky 9/1/04 Filing

Page 13: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

Kentucky ELPPFs

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0 1 2 3 4 5

Loss Limit (millions)

ELP

PF

HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV

Page 14: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Kentucky ELPPFs

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0 1 2 3 4 5

Loss Limit (millions)

ELP

PF

HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV

Page 15: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

Kentucky ELPPFs

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Loss Limit (thousands)

ELP

PF

HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV

Page 16: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

Kentucky ELPPFs

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0 1 2 3 4 5

Loss Limit (millions)

ELP

PF

HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV

Page 17: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

Kentucky ELPPFs

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Loss Limit (thousands)

ELP

PF

HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV

Page 18: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 18

HG Remapping Approach

• Makes sense to sort classes by ELF vectors

• Class ELF vectors approximated by HG ELF vectors

• ELF curves characterize loss distribution

Page 19: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

Excess Ratio Calculations

)()( iii ARwAR

iRi etypinjury for function ratio excess

iii LLw

losses typeinjury iLi

loss typeinjury mean ii

Page 20: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 20

HG RemappingBasic Data

• For each class code, , we have a vector of ELFs:

• Credibility weight with current HG ELF vector

c

),,,( 53025cM

cK

cKc xxxx

Page 21: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 21

Current Hazard Groups

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700

Excess Ratio at $100K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$1

M

Page 22: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 22

Current Hazard Groups

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700

Excess Ratio at $100K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$1

M

Page 23: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 23

New 4 Hazard Groups

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700

Excess Ratio at $100K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$1

M

Page 24: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 24

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700

Excess Ratio at $100K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$1

MNew 4 Hazard Groups

Page 25: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 25

4 Hazard Group ComparisonNumber of Classes per Hazard Group

Current Mapping

40

417303

100

New Mapping

212

260

265

123

HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

Page 26: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 26

4 Hazard Group Comparison Percent of Premium Per Hazard Group

Current Mapping

45.5%51.1%

2.5% 0.9%

New Mapping

17.9%

37.8%

39.2%

5.1%

HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

Page 27: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 27

Hierarchical Collapsing of New Mapping

A B C D E F G

1 2 3 4

Page 28: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 28

New Hazard GroupsNumber of Classes per HG

176

193198

67

123 36

67

Percent of Premium per HG

13.6%

25.5%19.9%

19.3%

5.1%

12.3%

4.3%

HG A

HG B

HG C

HG D

HG E

HG F

HG G

Page 29: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 29

New Hazard Groups

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700

Excess Ratio at $100K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$1

M

Page 30: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 30

New Hazard Groups

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700

Excess Ratio at $100K

Excess R

ati

o a

t $1M

Page 31: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 31

Percent of Premium MovedCurrent Mapping to New 4 Hazard Groups

* Number above bar represents the number of classes in each category.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

NoMovement

Up 1 HG Down 1 HG Up 2 HGs Down 2HGs

Movement

Per

cen

t o

f P

rem

ium

586

51

219

3 1

Page 32: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 32

Movement of ClassesCurrent Mapping

Hazard Group I II III IV Total

Number of Classes 40 417 303 100 860Percent of Premium 0.9% 45.5% 51.1% 2.5% 100%

Hazard Group36 175 1 0 212

0.8% 16.9% 0.1% 0.0% 17.9%

2 220 38 0 2600.0% 26.9% 10.8% 0.0% 37.8%

2 21 236 6 2650.0% 1.7% 37.3% 0.3% 39.2%

0 1 28 94 1230.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 5.1%

2

3

4

Ne

w M

ap

pin

g

1

Page 33: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 33

Number of Hazard GroupsCalinski and Harabasz

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4 5 6 7 8 9

Number of Hazard Groups

CH

Sta

tis

tic

Number of HGs 4CH Statistic 2317

53310

63213

73442

83297

93102

Page 34: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 34

Number of Hazard GroupsCubic Clustering Criterion

85

95

105

115

125

4 5 6 7 8 9

Number of Hazard Groups

CC

C S

tati

sti

c

Number of HGs 4CCC Statistic 89

5110

6108

7112

8111

9125

Page 35: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 35

Number of Hazard Groups

Calinski and Harabasz

Number of HGs All Classes 50% Credibility Classes Full Credibility Classes4 2317 793 4335 3310 759 3936 3213 705 4507 3442 1025 6388 3297 958 6209 3102 915 584

Cubic Clustering Criterion

Number of HGs All Classes 50% Credibility Classes Full Credibility Classes4 89 51 375 110 50 346 108 48 367 112 59 428 111 57 419 125 56 40

Page 36: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 36

Three Key Ideas

•Map based on ELFs

•Compute ELFs by class

•Cluster Analysis

Page 37: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 37

HG RemappingObjective

Break C = set of all class codes, into Hazard Groups:

i

iHGC

Page 38: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 38

HG RemappingBasic Data

For each class code, , we have a vector of ELFs:

c

),,,( 53025cM

cK

cKc xxxx

Page 39: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 39

Using Hazard Groups

• (HG mean)

• approx by for

• Want as close as possible to

iHGcc

ii xHG

x1

cx ix iHGc

cx ix

Page 40: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 40

HG Remapping Methodk-means

Splits classes into HGs to minimize

k

i HGcixcx

i1

2

Page 41: Agenda

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Optimal HGs

• % of total variance explained

• Analogous to an R-squared

• k-means maximizes this

Page 42: Agenda

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R-squared

cc

k

i HGcic

xx

xx

R i

2

1

2

2 1

Page 43: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 43

Optimal HGs

• Want well separated, homogeneous HGs

• Minimize within variance

• Maximize between variance

Page 44: Agenda

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Optimal HGs

• Between variance vs. within variance

• Have one variance for each variable (ELFs at different attachment points)

• Need to consider variance-covariance matrices

Page 45: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 45

Optimal HGs

Dispersion matrix of whole data set is given by

xxxxT c

T

cc

Page 46: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 46

Dispersion Matrix

5554535251

4544434241

3534333231

2524232221

1514131211

ˆˆˆˆˆ

ˆˆˆˆˆ

ˆˆˆˆˆ

ˆˆˆˆˆ

ˆˆˆˆˆ

)1(

nT

Page 47: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 47

Optimal HGs

Dispersion matrix of HGi is given by

ic

T

HGcici xxxxW

i

Page 48: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 48

Optimal HGs

• If we let

• Then

xxxxHGB i

T

iii

iicT

HGcc WBxxxx

i

Page 49: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 49

Optimal HGs

• Pooled within group dispersion matrix

• Weighted between group dispersion matrix

k

iiWW

1

k

iiBB

1

Page 50: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 50

Optimal HGs

• Between variance vs. within variance

• T = B + W

• k-means minimizes trace W

Page 51: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 51

Credibility

•Compute class ELFs

•Assign a credibility to each class

•Use current HG as complement

Page 52: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 52

History

• Hazard Groups were last remapped in 1993

• Prior to that, Hazard Groups were remapped in 1981

• Same credibility method used both times

Page 53: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 53

Pseudo-Bühlmann

where

n = number of claims

1,5.1min

kn

nz

nk

Page 54: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 54

Pseudo-Bühlmann

• A class with the average number of claims gets 75% credibility.

• Classes with twice the average number of claims get full credibility.

• Based on n/n+k

Page 55: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 55

Pseudo-Bühlmann Credibility

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 87 174 261 348 435 522 609 696 783 870

Number of Class Codes (Ordered by Size)

% C

red

ibili

ty

Page 56: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 56

Pseudo-Bühlmann Credibility

Credibility Size Range

Claims per Year

Number of Classes

% Premium

0% Z < 10% 0-237 355 1.2%

10% Z < 20% 238-511 89 1.3%

20% Z < 30% 512-831 61 1.6%

30% Z < 40% 832-1209 56 2.7%

40% Z < 50% 1210-1662 46 2.5%

50% Z < 60% 1663-2216 34 2.5%

60% Z < 70% 2217-2909 46 4.8%

70% Z < 80% 2910-3800 35 4.3%

80% Z < 90% 3801-4987 29 4.0%

90% Z < 100% 4988-6650 18 3.2%

Z = 100% 6651 101 71.8%

Page 57: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 57

Number of Classes by Claim Count

833

5020 14 3 5 6 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 20 40 60 80 100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

Number of Claims (thousands)

Nu

mb

er

of

Cla

ss

es

in In

terv

al

Page 58: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 58

Number of Classes by Claim Count

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Number of Claims (thousands)

Nu

mb

er

of

Cla

ss

es

in In

terv

al

Page 59: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 59

Number of Classes by Claim Count

0

50

100

150

200

0 50 100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

Number of Claims

Nu

mb

er

of

Cla

ss

es

in In

terv

al

Page 60: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 60

Revenue Neutrality

• Overall average ELF’s unaffected, therefore no overall premium effect.

• Individual risks may experience increases or decreases.

• Individual risk equity improved. • For deductibles of $5,000 or less, the

impact of the revised credit on the loss cost premium of most risks will be less than 5%.

Page 61: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 61

Impact of New HGs on ELFs

•ELFs computed by HG

•New HGs alone change ELFs

•Extra year of trend

•Change in ELF Calculations

Page 62: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 62

ELF Calculation Changes

• Average with last year’s ELFs

–Loss limits adjusted for inflation

–Provides additional stability

• Additive differential trend adjustmentRecognizes that med loss trend higher than indemnity

Page 63: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 63

Additive Adjustment to ELFs*all states, all HGs

Loss limit Adjustment

0-$125,000 .000

$150,000-$225,000 .001

$250,000-$700,000 .002

$800,000-$1,000,000 .003

$2,000,000-$5,000,000 .002

$6,000,000-$10,000,000 .001

Over $10,000,000 .000

*Included in B-1403.

Page 64: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 64

Movement of ClassesCurrent Mapping

Hazard Group I II III IV Total

Number of Classes 40 417 303 100 860Percent of Premium 0.9% 45.5% 51.1% 2.5% 100%

Hazard Group36 175 1 0 212

0.8% 16.9% 0.1% 0.0% 17.9%

2 220 38 0 2600.0% 26.9% 10.8% 0.0% 37.8%

2 21 236 6 2650.0% 1.7% 37.3% 0.3% 39.2%

0 1 28 94 1230.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 5.1%

2

3

4

Ne

w M

ap

pin

g

1

Page 65: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 65

Movement of Classes

• General movement of classes to lower HGs

• Classes with high ELFs moving to lower HGs

• General increase in HGs ELFs

Page 66: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 66

Impact of Remapping on ELFsCountrywide Excess Ratios

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650

Excess Ratio at $100 K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$ 1

mill

ion

HG I

HG II

HG III

HG IV

HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

Page 67: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 67

Impact of Remapping on ELFsCountrywide Excess Ratios

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300

Excess Ratio at $500 K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$ 3

mill

ion

HG I

HG II

HG III

HG IV

HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

Page 68: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 68

Old and New Hazard GroupsCountrywide Excess Ratios

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650

Excess Ratio at $100 K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$ 1

mill

ion HG I

HG II

HG III

HG IV

HG A

HG B

HG C

HG D

HG E

HG F

HG G

Page 69: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 69

New Hazard GroupsCountrywide Excess Ratios

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650

Excess Ratio at $100 K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$ 1

mill

ion HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

HG A

HG B

HG C

HG D

HG E

HG F

HG G

Page 70: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 70

Impact of Remapping on ELFsCountrywide Excess Ratios

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650

Excess Ratio at $100 K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$ 1

mill

ion

HG I

HG II

HG III

HG IV

HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

Page 71: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 71

Impact of Remapping in ALAlabama Excess Ratios

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650 0.700 0.750

Excess Ratio at $100 K

Ex

ce

ss

Ra

tio

at

$ 1

mill

ion

HG I

HG II

HG III

HG IV

HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

Page 72: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 72

Impact of Remapping in ILIllinois Excess Ratios

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650 0.700 0.750

Excess Ratio at $100 K

Exc

ess

Rat

io a

t $

1 m

illio

n

HG I

HG II

HG III

HG IV

HG 1

HG 2

HG 3

HG 4

Page 73: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 73

Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 (0.009) AK 0.013 CT 0.004$200,000 (0.004) AK 0.014 CT 0.006$300,000 (0.002) AK 0.013 CT 0.006$500,000 0.000 AK 0.013 NV 0.006

$1,000,000 0.001 NM 0.012 NV 0.004$5,000,000 0.000 HI 0.007 NV 0.002

Percentage Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 -2.5% AK 5.6% MO 1.2%$200,000 -1.9% AK 9.9% MO 3.1%$300,000 -1.2% AK 12.7% MO 4.4%$500,000 0.2% AK 16.7% MO 6.3%

$1,000,000 1.9% NM 20.2% MO 9.1%$5,000,000 3.7% VA 26.9% CT 14.0%

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 74: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 74

Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1

Change Due to New Mapping

(0.010)

(0.005)

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1

Change Due to New Mapping

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 76

Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 0.016 AK 0.031 CT 0.025$200,000 0.013 AK 0.028 CT 0.020$300,000 0.010 IN 0.024 CT 0.017$500,000 0.006 AK 0.019 MD 0.012

$1,000,000 0.002 AK 0.012 AL 0.007$5,000,000 (0.001) AK 0.005 NV 0.002

Percentage Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 3.9% MT 12.2% KS 7.0%$200,000 4.8% MT 14.7% KS 8.8%$300,000 5.2% MT 14.9% KS 9.8%$500,000 5.3% AK 17.1% IL 10.7%

$1,000,000 3.0% AK 19.1% CT 10.9%$5,000,000 -3.2% AK 22.1% RI 9.4%

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 77: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 77

Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2

Change Due to New Mapping

(0.005)

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 78

Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2

Change Due to New Mapping

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 79

Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 (0.000) AK 0.013 RI 0.005$200,000 (0.001) AK 0.011 RI 0.005$300,000 (0.002) AK 0.009 RI 0.004$500,000 (0.003) AK 0.008 ME 0.003

$1,000,000 (0.004) AK 0.005 ME 0.002$5,000,000 (0.002) AK 0.002 RI 0.001

Percentage Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 -0.1% AK 3.6% RI 1.1%$200,000 -0.4% AK 4.5% RI 1.4%$300,000 -0.8% AK 4.9% RI 1.6%$500,000 -1.7% AK 5.4% RI 1.8%

$1,000,000 -3.8% AK 5.8% RI 1.9%$5,000,000 -8.3% AK 7.8% RI 1.6%

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 80: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 80

Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3

Change Due to New Mapping

(0.006)

(0.004)

(0.002)

0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012

0.014

0.016

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3

Change Due to New Mapping

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 82

Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 (0.011) AK 0.025 CO 0.005$200,000 (0.013) AK 0.033 CO 0.008$300,000 (0.013) RI 0.039 CO 0.011$500,000 (0.012) RI 0.043 CO 0.014

$1,000,000 (0.010) RI 0.049 NV 0.016$5,000,000 (0.005) RI 0.040 NV 0.012

Percentage Change Due to New Mapping

AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*

$100,000 -2.2% RI 4.6% CO 0.9%$200,000 -3.6% RI 8.2% CO 1.9%$300,000 -4.4% RI 11.8% CO 3.0%$500,000 -5.4% RI 17.8% CO 5.3%

$1,000,000 -6.7% RI 28.2% CO 10.2%$5,000,000 -9.9% RI 43.2% CO 26.3%

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 83: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 83

Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4

Change Due to New Mapping

(0.020)

(0.010)

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 84

Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4

Change Due to New Mapping

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 85

Change in HG Excess Ratios

•Biggest increases at higher limits in HG I and IV

•Considerable variation by state

•Total change due to remapping, trend, and calculation changes

Page 86: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 86

Excess Ratio Calculations

)()( iii ARwAR

iRi etypinjury for function ratio excess

iii LLw

losses typeinjury iLi

loss typeinjury mean ii

Page 87: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 87

% Change in Average Cost per Case

Injury Type

Hazard Group

1 2 3 4

Fatal +48.6% +14.0% +2.2% -5.3%

PT +18.7% +4.0% +3.4% +29.2%

PP +2.1% +9.1% +2.8% -6.0%

TT -3.3% +4.8% +1.1% -5.8%

Med Only -6.8% +2.9% +1.4% -9.5%

Page 88: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 88

PT Average Cost per CaseHazard Group 4

HG IV

$413,376

HG 4

$533,913

$ 214,619 $ 573,275$ 450,789

Page 89: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 89

% Change in Injury Type Weights

Injury Type

Hazard Group

1 2 3 4

Fatal +133.3% +30.0% +3.8% -23.4%

PT +12.1% +8.2% 0.0% +39.4%

PP -1.6% +2.7% +0.7% -1.5%

TT -4.7% -3.3% -1.3% -2.3%

Med Only +15.2% -13.2% -5.2% -29.2%

Page 90: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 90

PT WeightHazard Group 4

HG IV

10.4%

HG 4

14.5%

4.1% 15.7%12.0%

Page 91: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 91

Impact of Remapping

vs.

Trend, and ELF Calculation Changes

Page 92: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 92

Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1

$250,000

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

NM SC MT OR VA ME LA AR HI MD AK NH NC OK NV MS SD VT IN TN RI NE CT CO IL KS MO

State

Per

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Total Change in B-1403 Change Due To Remapping

Page 93: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 93

Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2

$250,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

MT SC OR AR NV NM ME VA MD NC SD AK NH VT OK LA HI TN MS NE CO RI CT IN IL KS MO

State

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Page 94: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 94

Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3

$250,000

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

SC MT OR OK NM AR SD NV MD ME LA HI NH AK VA NE CO VT NC MS CT IN IL TN RI MO KS

State

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Page 95: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 95

Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

RI SD OK AK HI NH LA ME MD NE VA VT NM SC CT MT OR NC MS IL MO KS NV AR TN IN CO

State

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Page 96: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 96

Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1

$1,000,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

AR NM VA SC MT HI ME MS OR SD NV MD NC TN LA NH RI IN VT AK KS CO NE OK IL CT MO

State

Per

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Page 97: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 97

Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2

$1,000,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

MT AR OR SC NV NM SD VA HI TN MS AK NC ME NE VT LA CO RI MD OK NH IN KS CT IL MO

State

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Page 98: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 98

Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3

$1,000,000

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

MT AR OR SC SD NM NV OK AK NE HI LA VA CO ME TN MD MS NH VT IN RI NC KS MO CT IL

State

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Page 99: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 99

Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4

$1,000,000

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

RI SD NH ME AK HI OK VA MD NE LA CT SC NM VT MT NC MS OR IL MO NV AR KS TN IN CO

State

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Page 100: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 100

Key TransitionsCurrent Mapping

Hazard Group I II III IV Total

Number of Classes 40 417 303 100 860Percent of Premium 0.9% 45.5% 51.1% 2.5% 100%

Hazard Group26 10 0 0 36

0.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3%

10 165 1 0 1760.4% 13.0% 0.1% 0.0% 13.6%

1 178 14 0 1930.0% 21.7% 3.7% 0.0% 25.5%

1 42 24 0 670.0% 5.2% 7.1% 0.0% 12.3%

2 17 178 1 1980.0% 1.5% 18.4% 0.0% 19.9%

0 4 58 5 670.0% 0.2% 18.9% 0.3% 19.3%

0 1 28 94 1230.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 5.1%

Ne

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F

G

A

B

C

D

E

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 101

Largest Class Codes Transitioning From II to B

Class Code

DescriptionPremium Size (8810

= 1000)

8017 Store: Retail NOC 451*

8018 Store: Wholesale NOC 271

8868College: Professional Employees and Clerical

223

9052Hotel: All Other Employees and Salespersons, Drivers

219

9101College or School: All Other Employees

162

*Indicates premium 45.1% of 8810 premium.

Page 102: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 102

Largest Class Codes Transitioning From II to C

Class Code

DescriptionPremium Size (8810 =

1000)

8810 Clerical Office Employees NOC 1000

8829Convalescent or Nursing Home—All Employees

293

8033Store: Meat, Grocery and Provision (Combined)—Retail—NOC

248

8833 Hospital: Professional Employees 214

9014Buildings—Operation by Contractors

189

Page 103: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 103

Change in HG II Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping

Hazard Group II - BAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 (0.039) MT (0.010) HI (0.021)$200,000 (0.041) MT (0.008) HI (0.020)$300,000 (0.040) MT (0.006) HI (0.018)$500,000 (0.035) MT (0.004) HI (0.015)

$1,000,000 (0.027) MT (0.002) HI (0.010)$5,000,000 (0.013) NV (0.001) HI (0.004)

Hazard Group II - CAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 0.007 OR 0.021 CT 0.014$200,000 0.005 AK 0.018 CT 0.011$300,000 0.003 AK 0.015 CT 0.009$500,000 0.001 AK 0.012 CT 0.007

$1,000,000 (0.001) AK 0.008 NV 0.004$5,000,000 (0.001) AK 0.003 NV 0.001

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 104: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 104

Change in HG II Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping

-0.050

-0.040

-0.030

-0.020

-0.010

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

HG B HG C$100K

HG 2 HG B HG C$500K

HG 2 HG B HG C$1M

HG 2 HG B HG C$5M

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 105

Change in HG II Excess RatiosPercentage Change Due to New Mapping

Hazard Group II - BAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 -10.3% OR -3.0% MD -6.0%$200,000 -14.1% OR -4.4% MD -8.6%$300,000 -16.8% OR -5.0% HI -10.3%$500,000 -20.6% OR -5.6% HI -12.8%

$1,000,000 -25.9% AK -5.4% HI -15.7%$5,000,000 -29.1% AK -5.7% HI -19.0%

Hazard Group II - CAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 1.6% MT 6.7% KS 3.9%$200,000 1.7% MT 8.1% KS 4.8%$300,000 1.7% MT 8.4% KS 5.3%$500,000 1.1% AK 10.2% CT 5.9%

$1,000,000 -0.9% AK 12.5% CT 6.1%$5,000,000 -5.4% AK 13.1% RI 5.4%

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 106: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 106

Change in HG II Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

HG B HG C$100K

HG 2 HG B HG C$500K

HG 2 HG B HG C$1M

HG 2 HG B HG C$5M

HG 2

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 107

Change in HG III Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping

Hazard Group III - EAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 (0.038) OR (0.016) RI (0.025)$200,000 (0.040) MT (0.013) RI (0.024)$300,000 (0.039) MT (0.010) RI (0.022)$500,000 (0.036) MT (0.007) RI (0.018)

$1,000,000 (0.027) MT (0.004) RI (0.012)$5,000,000 (0.011) OR (0.001) OK (0.004)

Hazard Group III - FAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 0.031 MT 0.046 CO 0.038$200,000 0.028 IN 0.043 CT 0.036$300,000 0.023 IN 0.041 CT 0.032$500,000 0.017 IN 0.035 AL 0.026

$1,000,000 0.009 OK 0.028 AL 0.017$5,000,000 0.001 AK 0.013 NV 0.005

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 108: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 108

Change in HG III Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping

-0.050

-0.040

-0.030

-0.020

-0.010

0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

HG E HG F$100K

HG 3 HG E HG F$500K

HG 3 HG E HG F$1M

HG 3 HG E HG F$5M

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 109

Change in HG III Excess RatiosPercentage Change Due to New Mapping

Hazard Group III - EAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 -8.6% IN -3.1% MD -5.3%$200,000 -10.1% IN -4.2% MD -7.1%$300,000 -12.1% AK -5.0% MD -8.2%$500,000 -15.1% AK -5.4% RI -9.6%

$1,000,000 -18.6% AK -5.1% RI -11.0%$5,000,000 -22.8% AK -5.3% RI -12.2%

Hazard Group III - FAverage

Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 5.2% MT 13.4% IN 8.0%$200,000 6.9% MT 16.3% KS 10.6%$300,000 8.1% MT 17.8% IN 12.2%$500,000 9.4% MT 19.1% IL 14.2%

$1,000,000 10.0% AK 22.4% CT 15.8%$5,000,000 4.6% AK 21.4% CT 15.9%

*Loss-weighted average over 29 states

Page 110: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 110

Change in HG III Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

HG E HG F$100K

HG 3 HG E HG F$500K

HG 3 HG E HG F$1M

HG 3 HG E HG F$5M

HG 3

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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 111

Largest Class Codes Transitioning From III to E

Class Code

DescriptionPremium Size (8810 =

1000)

8742Salespersons, Collectors or Messengers—Outside

453

5190Electrical Wiring—Within Buildings and Drivers

399

5183 Plumbing NOC and Drivers 366

7228Trucking—Local Hauling Only—All Employees and Drivers

325

5221Concrete or Cement Work—Floors, Driveways, Yards or Sidewalks—and Drivers

250

Page 112: Agenda

© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 112

Largest Class Codes Transitioning From III to F

Class Code

DescriptionPremium Size (8810

= 1000)

5645Carpentry—Detached One or Two Family Dwellings

500

7229Trucking—Long-Distance Hauling—All Employees and Drivers

416

5403 Carpentry NOC 289

5022 Masonry NOC 285

3724Machinery or Equipment Erection or Repair NOC and Drivers

272