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The New NCCI Hazard Groups Greg Engl, PhD, FCAS, MAAA National Council on Compensation Insurance CASE Fall Meeting September 13, 2006. Agenda. History of previous work Methodology employed Impact of remapping. Current Hazard Groups. Assigning Classes to HGs. Prior NCCI Method - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The New NCCI Hazard Groups
Greg Engl, PhD, FCAS, MAAA
National Council on Compensation Insurance
CASE Fall MeetingSeptember 13, 2006
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Agenda
•History of previous work
•Methodology employed
• Impact of remapping
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
Current Hazard Groups
HG Number of
ClassesStandard Premium
% of Total Premium
I 40 1,262,958,374 0.9%
II 417 67,150,463,296 45.5%
III 303 75,288,994,325 51.1%
IV 100 3,623,213,832 2.5%
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Assigning Classes to HGs
•Prior NCCI Method
•California Approach
•ELF Based Method
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Prior NCCI Method
•Hazardousness
• “Excess loss potential”
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
For each state, the following seven quantities were measured by class and expressed as ratios to the corresponding statewide value:
Claim FrequencyIndemnity Pure PremiumIndemnity SeverityMedical Pure PremiumMedical SeverityTotal Pure PremiumSerious Severity (including Medical)
Hazardousness Variables
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
California Methodology
•Group classes with similar loss distributions together
•Need to precisely define ‘similar’
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Crossover
Excess Loss Factors
LossLimit O P
25,000 0.643 0.660600,000 0.098 0.082
Hazard Group
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
CrossoverCalifornia ELF Curves
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
Per Accident Limit ($M)
Lo
ss E
lim
inati
on
Rati
o
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
1 2 3 5 104 6 7 8 9
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
CrossoverCalifornia ELF Curves
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
0.085
0.090
0.095
0.100
$1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 $2,000,000 $2,200,000
Per Accident Limit
Lo
ss E
lim
inati
on
Rati
o
J
M
R
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
HG Remapping Rationale
•What are HGs used for?
•Determining ELFs
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
Excess Loss Pure Premium Factors (Applicable to New and Renewal Policies)
Per Accident Hazard GroupsLimitation I II III IV
$25,000 0.701 0.727 0.813 0.865$30,000 0.675 0.703 0.794 0.850*$35,000 0.651 0.682 0.777 0.837$40,000 0.630 0.662 0.761 0.824*$50,000 0.593 0.628 0.732 0.802*$75,000 0.521 0.561 0.674 0.754
$100,000 0.466 0.509 0.628 0.714*$125,000 0.422 0.466 0.589 0.680$150,000 0.386 0.430 0.555 0.650$175,000 0.355 0.399 0.525 0.623$200,000 0.328 0.373 0.498 0.598$250,000 0.285 0.329 0.452 0.555$300,000 0.251 0.294 0.413 0.517$500,000 0.167 0.205 0.308 0.406
$1,000,000 0.088 0.117 0.188 0.262$2,000,000 0.045 0.064 0.108 0.155$5,000,000 0.020 0.032 0.053 0.075
* Also applicable to Underground Coal Mine classifications.
Kentucky 9/1/04 Filing
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
Kentucky ELPPFs
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Loss Limit (millions)
ELP
PF
HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
Kentucky ELPPFs
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Loss Limit (millions)
ELP
PF
HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
Kentucky ELPPFs
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Loss Limit (thousands)
ELP
PF
HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
Kentucky ELPPFs
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Loss Limit (millions)
ELP
PF
HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
Kentucky ELPPFs
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Loss Limit (thousands)
ELP
PF
HG I HG I IHG I I I HG IV
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
HG Remapping Approach
• Makes sense to sort classes by ELF vectors
• Class ELF vectors approximated by HG ELF vectors
• ELF curves characterize loss distribution
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
Excess Ratio Calculations
)()( iii ARwAR
iRi etypinjury for function ratio excess
iii LLw
losses typeinjury iLi
loss typeinjury mean ii
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
HG RemappingBasic Data
• For each class code, , we have a vector of ELFs:
• Credibility weight with current HG ELF vector
c
),,,( 53025cM
cK
cKc xxxx
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
Current Hazard Groups
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Excess Ratio at $100K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$1
M
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
Current Hazard Groups
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Excess Ratio at $100K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$1
M
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
New 4 Hazard Groups
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Excess Ratio at $100K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$1
M
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Excess Ratio at $100K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$1
MNew 4 Hazard Groups
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 25
4 Hazard Group ComparisonNumber of Classes per Hazard Group
Current Mapping
40
417303
100
New Mapping
212
260
265
123
HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 26
4 Hazard Group Comparison Percent of Premium Per Hazard Group
Current Mapping
45.5%51.1%
2.5% 0.9%
New Mapping
17.9%
37.8%
39.2%
5.1%
HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 27
Hierarchical Collapsing of New Mapping
A B C D E F G
1 2 3 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 28
New Hazard GroupsNumber of Classes per HG
176
193198
67
123 36
67
Percent of Premium per HG
13.6%
25.5%19.9%
19.3%
5.1%
12.3%
4.3%
HG A
HG B
HG C
HG D
HG E
HG F
HG G
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 29
New Hazard Groups
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Excess Ratio at $100K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$1
M
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 30
New Hazard Groups
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Excess Ratio at $100K
Excess R
ati
o a
t $1M
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 31
Percent of Premium MovedCurrent Mapping to New 4 Hazard Groups
* Number above bar represents the number of classes in each category.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
NoMovement
Up 1 HG Down 1 HG Up 2 HGs Down 2HGs
Movement
Per
cen
t o
f P
rem
ium
586
51
219
3 1
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 32
Movement of ClassesCurrent Mapping
Hazard Group I II III IV Total
Number of Classes 40 417 303 100 860Percent of Premium 0.9% 45.5% 51.1% 2.5% 100%
Hazard Group36 175 1 0 212
0.8% 16.9% 0.1% 0.0% 17.9%
2 220 38 0 2600.0% 26.9% 10.8% 0.0% 37.8%
2 21 236 6 2650.0% 1.7% 37.3% 0.3% 39.2%
0 1 28 94 1230.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 5.1%
2
3
4
Ne
w M
ap
pin
g
1
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 33
Number of Hazard GroupsCalinski and Harabasz
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4 5 6 7 8 9
Number of Hazard Groups
CH
Sta
tis
tic
Number of HGs 4CH Statistic 2317
53310
63213
73442
83297
93102
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 34
Number of Hazard GroupsCubic Clustering Criterion
85
95
105
115
125
4 5 6 7 8 9
Number of Hazard Groups
CC
C S
tati
sti
c
Number of HGs 4CCC Statistic 89
5110
6108
7112
8111
9125
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 35
Number of Hazard Groups
Calinski and Harabasz
Number of HGs All Classes 50% Credibility Classes Full Credibility Classes4 2317 793 4335 3310 759 3936 3213 705 4507 3442 1025 6388 3297 958 6209 3102 915 584
Cubic Clustering Criterion
Number of HGs All Classes 50% Credibility Classes Full Credibility Classes4 89 51 375 110 50 346 108 48 367 112 59 428 111 57 419 125 56 40
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 36
Three Key Ideas
•Map based on ELFs
•Compute ELFs by class
•Cluster Analysis
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 37
HG RemappingObjective
Break C = set of all class codes, into Hazard Groups:
i
iHGC
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 38
HG RemappingBasic Data
For each class code, , we have a vector of ELFs:
c
),,,( 53025cM
cK
cKc xxxx
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 39
Using Hazard Groups
• (HG mean)
• approx by for
• Want as close as possible to
iHGcc
ii xHG
x1
cx ix iHGc
cx ix
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 40
HG Remapping Methodk-means
Splits classes into HGs to minimize
k
i HGcixcx
i1
2
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 41
Optimal HGs
• % of total variance explained
• Analogous to an R-squared
• k-means maximizes this
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 42
R-squared
cc
k
i HGcic
xx
xx
R i
2
1
2
2 1
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 43
Optimal HGs
• Want well separated, homogeneous HGs
• Minimize within variance
• Maximize between variance
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 44
Optimal HGs
• Between variance vs. within variance
• Have one variance for each variable (ELFs at different attachment points)
• Need to consider variance-covariance matrices
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 45
Optimal HGs
Dispersion matrix of whole data set is given by
xxxxT c
T
cc
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 46
Dispersion Matrix
5554535251
4544434241
3534333231
2524232221
1514131211
ˆˆˆˆˆ
ˆˆˆˆˆ
ˆˆˆˆˆ
ˆˆˆˆˆ
ˆˆˆˆˆ
)1(
nT
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 47
Optimal HGs
Dispersion matrix of HGi is given by
ic
T
HGcici xxxxW
i
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 48
Optimal HGs
• If we let
• Then
xxxxHGB i
T
iii
iicT
HGcc WBxxxx
i
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 49
Optimal HGs
• Pooled within group dispersion matrix
• Weighted between group dispersion matrix
k
iiWW
1
k
iiBB
1
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 50
Optimal HGs
• Between variance vs. within variance
• T = B + W
• k-means minimizes trace W
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 51
Credibility
•Compute class ELFs
•Assign a credibility to each class
•Use current HG as complement
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 52
History
• Hazard Groups were last remapped in 1993
• Prior to that, Hazard Groups were remapped in 1981
• Same credibility method used both times
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 53
Pseudo-Bühlmann
where
n = number of claims
1,5.1min
kn
nz
nk
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 54
Pseudo-Bühlmann
• A class with the average number of claims gets 75% credibility.
• Classes with twice the average number of claims get full credibility.
• Based on n/n+k
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 55
Pseudo-Bühlmann Credibility
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 87 174 261 348 435 522 609 696 783 870
Number of Class Codes (Ordered by Size)
% C
red
ibili
ty
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 56
Pseudo-Bühlmann Credibility
Credibility Size Range
Claims per Year
Number of Classes
% Premium
0% Z < 10% 0-237 355 1.2%
10% Z < 20% 238-511 89 1.3%
20% Z < 30% 512-831 61 1.6%
30% Z < 40% 832-1209 56 2.7%
40% Z < 50% 1210-1662 46 2.5%
50% Z < 60% 1663-2216 34 2.5%
60% Z < 70% 2217-2909 46 4.8%
70% Z < 80% 2910-3800 35 4.3%
80% Z < 90% 3801-4987 29 4.0%
90% Z < 100% 4988-6650 18 3.2%
Z = 100% 6651 101 71.8%
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 57
Number of Classes by Claim Count
833
5020 14 3 5 6 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 20 40 60 80 100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
Number of Claims (thousands)
Nu
mb
er
of
Cla
ss
es
in In
terv
al
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 58
Number of Classes by Claim Count
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Number of Claims (thousands)
Nu
mb
er
of
Cla
ss
es
in In
terv
al
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 59
Number of Classes by Claim Count
0
50
100
150
200
0 50 100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Number of Claims
Nu
mb
er
of
Cla
ss
es
in In
terv
al
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 60
Revenue Neutrality
• Overall average ELF’s unaffected, therefore no overall premium effect.
• Individual risks may experience increases or decreases.
• Individual risk equity improved. • For deductibles of $5,000 or less, the
impact of the revised credit on the loss cost premium of most risks will be less than 5%.
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 61
Impact of New HGs on ELFs
•ELFs computed by HG
•New HGs alone change ELFs
•Extra year of trend
•Change in ELF Calculations
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 62
ELF Calculation Changes
• Average with last year’s ELFs
–Loss limits adjusted for inflation
–Provides additional stability
• Additive differential trend adjustmentRecognizes that med loss trend higher than indemnity
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 63
Additive Adjustment to ELFs*all states, all HGs
Loss limit Adjustment
0-$125,000 .000
$150,000-$225,000 .001
$250,000-$700,000 .002
$800,000-$1,000,000 .003
$2,000,000-$5,000,000 .002
$6,000,000-$10,000,000 .001
Over $10,000,000 .000
*Included in B-1403.
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 64
Movement of ClassesCurrent Mapping
Hazard Group I II III IV Total
Number of Classes 40 417 303 100 860Percent of Premium 0.9% 45.5% 51.1% 2.5% 100%
Hazard Group36 175 1 0 212
0.8% 16.9% 0.1% 0.0% 17.9%
2 220 38 0 2600.0% 26.9% 10.8% 0.0% 37.8%
2 21 236 6 2650.0% 1.7% 37.3% 0.3% 39.2%
0 1 28 94 1230.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 5.1%
2
3
4
Ne
w M
ap
pin
g
1
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 65
Movement of Classes
• General movement of classes to lower HGs
• Classes with high ELFs moving to lower HGs
• General increase in HGs ELFs
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 66
Impact of Remapping on ELFsCountrywide Excess Ratios
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
0.180
0.200
0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650
Excess Ratio at $100 K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$ 1
mill
ion
HG I
HG II
HG III
HG IV
HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 67
Impact of Remapping on ELFsCountrywide Excess Ratios
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300
Excess Ratio at $500 K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$ 3
mill
ion
HG I
HG II
HG III
HG IV
HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 68
Old and New Hazard GroupsCountrywide Excess Ratios
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
0.180
0.200
0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650
Excess Ratio at $100 K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$ 1
mill
ion HG I
HG II
HG III
HG IV
HG A
HG B
HG C
HG D
HG E
HG F
HG G
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 69
New Hazard GroupsCountrywide Excess Ratios
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
0.180
0.200
0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650
Excess Ratio at $100 K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$ 1
mill
ion HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
HG A
HG B
HG C
HG D
HG E
HG F
HG G
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 70
Impact of Remapping on ELFsCountrywide Excess Ratios
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
0.160
0.180
0.200
0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650
Excess Ratio at $100 K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$ 1
mill
ion
HG I
HG II
HG III
HG IV
HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 71
Impact of Remapping in ALAlabama Excess Ratios
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650 0.700 0.750
Excess Ratio at $100 K
Ex
ce
ss
Ra
tio
at
$ 1
mill
ion
HG I
HG II
HG III
HG IV
HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 72
Impact of Remapping in ILIllinois Excess Ratios
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.600 0.650 0.700 0.750
Excess Ratio at $100 K
Exc
ess
Rat
io a
t $
1 m
illio
n
HG I
HG II
HG III
HG IV
HG 1
HG 2
HG 3
HG 4
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 73
Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 (0.009) AK 0.013 CT 0.004$200,000 (0.004) AK 0.014 CT 0.006$300,000 (0.002) AK 0.013 CT 0.006$500,000 0.000 AK 0.013 NV 0.006
$1,000,000 0.001 NM 0.012 NV 0.004$5,000,000 0.000 HI 0.007 NV 0.002
Percentage Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 -2.5% AK 5.6% MO 1.2%$200,000 -1.9% AK 9.9% MO 3.1%$300,000 -1.2% AK 12.7% MO 4.4%$500,000 0.2% AK 16.7% MO 6.3%
$1,000,000 1.9% NM 20.2% MO 9.1%$5,000,000 3.7% VA 26.9% CT 14.0%
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 74
Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1
Change Due to New Mapping
(0.010)
(0.005)
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
Attachment Point
Ch
an
ge
in E
xc
es
s R
ati
o
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 75
Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1
Change Due to New Mapping
-6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
30%
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
Attachment Point
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ch
an
ge
in E
xc
es
s R
ati
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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 76
Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 0.016 AK 0.031 CT 0.025$200,000 0.013 AK 0.028 CT 0.020$300,000 0.010 IN 0.024 CT 0.017$500,000 0.006 AK 0.019 MD 0.012
$1,000,000 0.002 AK 0.012 AL 0.007$5,000,000 (0.001) AK 0.005 NV 0.002
Percentage Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 3.9% MT 12.2% KS 7.0%$200,000 4.8% MT 14.7% KS 8.8%$300,000 5.2% MT 14.9% KS 9.8%$500,000 5.3% AK 17.1% IL 10.7%
$1,000,000 3.0% AK 19.1% CT 10.9%$5,000,000 -3.2% AK 22.1% RI 9.4%
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 77
Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2
Change Due to New Mapping
(0.005)
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
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Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2
Change Due to New Mapping
-6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
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Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 (0.000) AK 0.013 RI 0.005$200,000 (0.001) AK 0.011 RI 0.005$300,000 (0.002) AK 0.009 RI 0.004$500,000 (0.003) AK 0.008 ME 0.003
$1,000,000 (0.004) AK 0.005 ME 0.002$5,000,000 (0.002) AK 0.002 RI 0.001
Percentage Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 -0.1% AK 3.6% RI 1.1%$200,000 -0.4% AK 4.5% RI 1.4%$300,000 -0.8% AK 4.9% RI 1.6%$500,000 -1.7% AK 5.4% RI 1.8%
$1,000,000 -3.8% AK 5.8% RI 1.9%$5,000,000 -8.3% AK 7.8% RI 1.6%
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 80
Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3
Change Due to New Mapping
(0.006)
(0.004)
(0.002)
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
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Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3
Change Due to New Mapping
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
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Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 (0.011) AK 0.025 CO 0.005$200,000 (0.013) AK 0.033 CO 0.008$300,000 (0.013) RI 0.039 CO 0.011$500,000 (0.012) RI 0.043 CO 0.014
$1,000,000 (0.010) RI 0.049 NV 0.016$5,000,000 (0.005) RI 0.040 NV 0.012
Percentage Change Due to New Mapping
AverageMinimum Maximum Difference*
$100,000 -2.2% RI 4.6% CO 0.9%$200,000 -3.6% RI 8.2% CO 1.9%$300,000 -4.4% RI 11.8% CO 3.0%$500,000 -5.4% RI 17.8% CO 5.3%
$1,000,000 -6.7% RI 28.2% CO 10.2%$5,000,000 -9.9% RI 43.2% CO 26.3%
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 83
Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4
Change Due to New Mapping
(0.020)
(0.010)
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
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Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4
Change Due to New Mapping
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
$100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $5,000,000
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Change in HG Excess Ratios
•Biggest increases at higher limits in HG I and IV
•Considerable variation by state
•Total change due to remapping, trend, and calculation changes
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 86
Excess Ratio Calculations
)()( iii ARwAR
iRi etypinjury for function ratio excess
iii LLw
losses typeinjury iLi
loss typeinjury mean ii
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 87
% Change in Average Cost per Case
Injury Type
Hazard Group
1 2 3 4
Fatal +48.6% +14.0% +2.2% -5.3%
PT +18.7% +4.0% +3.4% +29.2%
PP +2.1% +9.1% +2.8% -6.0%
TT -3.3% +4.8% +1.1% -5.8%
Med Only -6.8% +2.9% +1.4% -9.5%
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 88
PT Average Cost per CaseHazard Group 4
HG IV
$413,376
HG 4
$533,913
$ 214,619 $ 573,275$ 450,789
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 89
% Change in Injury Type Weights
Injury Type
Hazard Group
1 2 3 4
Fatal +133.3% +30.0% +3.8% -23.4%
PT +12.1% +8.2% 0.0% +39.4%
PP -1.6% +2.7% +0.7% -1.5%
TT -4.7% -3.3% -1.3% -2.3%
Med Only +15.2% -13.2% -5.2% -29.2%
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 90
PT WeightHazard Group 4
HG IV
10.4%
HG 4
14.5%
4.1% 15.7%12.0%
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 91
Impact of Remapping
vs.
Trend, and ELF Calculation Changes
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 92
Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1
$250,000
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
NM SC MT OR VA ME LA AR HI MD AK NH NC OK NV MS SD VT IN TN RI NE CT CO IL KS MO
State
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Total Change in B-1403 Change Due To Remapping
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Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2
$250,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
MT SC OR AR NV NM ME VA MD NC SD AK NH VT OK LA HI TN MS NE CO RI CT IN IL KS MO
State
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© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 94
Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3
$250,000
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
SC MT OR OK NM AR SD NV MD ME LA HI NH AK VA NE CO VT NC MS CT IN IL TN RI MO KS
State
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Total Change in B-1403 Change Due To Remapping
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 95
Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4
$250,000
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
RI SD OK AK HI NH LA ME MD NE VA VT NM SC CT MT OR NC MS IL MO KS NV AR TN IN CO
State
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Total Change in B-1403 Change Due To Remapping
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Change in Excess RatiosHG I to HG 1
$1,000,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
AR NM VA SC MT HI ME MS OR SD NV MD NC TN LA NH RI IN VT AK KS CO NE OK IL CT MO
State
Per
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Change in Excess RatiosHG II to HG 2
$1,000,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
MT AR OR SC NV NM SD VA HI TN MS AK NC ME NE VT LA CO RI MD OK NH IN KS CT IL MO
State
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Total Change in B-1403 Change Due To Remapping
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 98
Change in Excess RatiosHG III to HG 3
$1,000,000
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
MT AR OR SC SD NM NV OK AK NE HI LA VA CO ME TN MD MS NH VT IN RI NC KS MO CT IL
State
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Total Change in B-1403 Change Due To Remapping
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Change in Excess RatiosHG IV to HG 4
$1,000,000
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
RI SD NH ME AK HI OK VA MD NE LA CT SC NM VT MT NC MS OR IL MO NV AR KS TN IN CO
State
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Total Change in B-1403 Change Due To Remapping
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 100
Key TransitionsCurrent Mapping
Hazard Group I II III IV Total
Number of Classes 40 417 303 100 860Percent of Premium 0.9% 45.5% 51.1% 2.5% 100%
Hazard Group26 10 0 0 36
0.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3%
10 165 1 0 1760.4% 13.0% 0.1% 0.0% 13.6%
1 178 14 0 1930.0% 21.7% 3.7% 0.0% 25.5%
1 42 24 0 670.0% 5.2% 7.1% 0.0% 12.3%
2 17 178 1 1980.0% 1.5% 18.4% 0.0% 19.9%
0 4 58 5 670.0% 0.2% 18.9% 0.3% 19.3%
0 1 28 94 1230.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 5.1%
Ne
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F
G
A
B
C
D
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Largest Class Codes Transitioning From II to B
Class Code
DescriptionPremium Size (8810
= 1000)
8017 Store: Retail NOC 451*
8018 Store: Wholesale NOC 271
8868College: Professional Employees and Clerical
223
9052Hotel: All Other Employees and Salespersons, Drivers
219
9101College or School: All Other Employees
162
*Indicates premium 45.1% of 8810 premium.
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 102
Largest Class Codes Transitioning From II to C
Class Code
DescriptionPremium Size (8810 =
1000)
8810 Clerical Office Employees NOC 1000
8829Convalescent or Nursing Home—All Employees
293
8033Store: Meat, Grocery and Provision (Combined)—Retail—NOC
248
8833 Hospital: Professional Employees 214
9014Buildings—Operation by Contractors
189
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 103
Change in HG II Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping
Hazard Group II - BAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 (0.039) MT (0.010) HI (0.021)$200,000 (0.041) MT (0.008) HI (0.020)$300,000 (0.040) MT (0.006) HI (0.018)$500,000 (0.035) MT (0.004) HI (0.015)
$1,000,000 (0.027) MT (0.002) HI (0.010)$5,000,000 (0.013) NV (0.001) HI (0.004)
Hazard Group II - CAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 0.007 OR 0.021 CT 0.014$200,000 0.005 AK 0.018 CT 0.011$300,000 0.003 AK 0.015 CT 0.009$500,000 0.001 AK 0.012 CT 0.007
$1,000,000 (0.001) AK 0.008 NV 0.004$5,000,000 (0.001) AK 0.003 NV 0.001
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 104
Change in HG II Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping
-0.050
-0.040
-0.030
-0.020
-0.010
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
HG B HG C$100K
HG 2 HG B HG C$500K
HG 2 HG B HG C$1M
HG 2 HG B HG C$5M
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Change in HG II Excess RatiosPercentage Change Due to New Mapping
Hazard Group II - BAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 -10.3% OR -3.0% MD -6.0%$200,000 -14.1% OR -4.4% MD -8.6%$300,000 -16.8% OR -5.0% HI -10.3%$500,000 -20.6% OR -5.6% HI -12.8%
$1,000,000 -25.9% AK -5.4% HI -15.7%$5,000,000 -29.1% AK -5.7% HI -19.0%
Hazard Group II - CAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 1.6% MT 6.7% KS 3.9%$200,000 1.7% MT 8.1% KS 4.8%$300,000 1.7% MT 8.4% KS 5.3%$500,000 1.1% AK 10.2% CT 5.9%
$1,000,000 -0.9% AK 12.5% CT 6.1%$5,000,000 -5.4% AK 13.1% RI 5.4%
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 106
Change in HG II Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
HG B HG C$100K
HG 2 HG B HG C$500K
HG 2 HG B HG C$1M
HG 2 HG B HG C$5M
HG 2
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Change in HG III Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping
Hazard Group III - EAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 (0.038) OR (0.016) RI (0.025)$200,000 (0.040) MT (0.013) RI (0.024)$300,000 (0.039) MT (0.010) RI (0.022)$500,000 (0.036) MT (0.007) RI (0.018)
$1,000,000 (0.027) MT (0.004) RI (0.012)$5,000,000 (0.011) OR (0.001) OK (0.004)
Hazard Group III - FAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 0.031 MT 0.046 CO 0.038$200,000 0.028 IN 0.043 CT 0.036$300,000 0.023 IN 0.041 CT 0.032$500,000 0.017 IN 0.035 AL 0.026
$1,000,000 0.009 OK 0.028 AL 0.017$5,000,000 0.001 AK 0.013 NV 0.005
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 108
Change in HG III Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping
-0.050
-0.040
-0.030
-0.020
-0.010
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
HG E HG F$100K
HG 3 HG E HG F$500K
HG 3 HG E HG F$1M
HG 3 HG E HG F$5M
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Change in HG III Excess RatiosPercentage Change Due to New Mapping
Hazard Group III - EAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 -8.6% IN -3.1% MD -5.3%$200,000 -10.1% IN -4.2% MD -7.1%$300,000 -12.1% AK -5.0% MD -8.2%$500,000 -15.1% AK -5.4% RI -9.6%
$1,000,000 -18.6% AK -5.1% RI -11.0%$5,000,000 -22.8% AK -5.3% RI -12.2%
Hazard Group III - FAverage
Minimum Maximum Difference*$100,000 5.2% MT 13.4% IN 8.0%$200,000 6.9% MT 16.3% KS 10.6%$300,000 8.1% MT 17.8% IN 12.2%$500,000 9.4% MT 19.1% IL 14.2%
$1,000,000 10.0% AK 22.4% CT 15.8%$5,000,000 4.6% AK 21.4% CT 15.9%
*Loss-weighted average over 29 states
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 110
Change in HG III Excess RatiosChange Due to New Mapping
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
HG E HG F$100K
HG 3 HG E HG F$500K
HG 3 HG E HG F$1M
HG 3 HG E HG F$5M
HG 3
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Largest Class Codes Transitioning From III to E
Class Code
DescriptionPremium Size (8810 =
1000)
8742Salespersons, Collectors or Messengers—Outside
453
5190Electrical Wiring—Within Buildings and Drivers
399
5183 Plumbing NOC and Drivers 366
7228Trucking—Local Hauling Only—All Employees and Drivers
325
5221Concrete or Cement Work—Floors, Driveways, Yards or Sidewalks—and Drivers
250
© Copyright 2006 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All rights reserved. 112
Largest Class Codes Transitioning From III to F
Class Code
DescriptionPremium Size (8810
= 1000)
5645Carpentry—Detached One or Two Family Dwellings
500
7229Trucking—Long-Distance Hauling—All Employees and Drivers
416
5403 Carpentry NOC 289
5022 Masonry NOC 285
3724Machinery or Equipment Erection or Repair NOC and Drivers
272