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Aggregated Convection, Tropical Cyclones, Aggregated Convection, Tropical Cyclones, and Climateand Climate
Kerry EmanuelKerry Emanuel
Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and ClimateProgram in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
-- Climate physicist, to Horatio a climate modeler
We are such stuff as dreams are made on, and our little life is rounded by a sleep
Model Disagreement = Uncertainty:Is this true?
Climate understanding desert
Climate modeler
Skeptic
Specific Issues Addressed HereSpecific Issues Addressed Here
• Aggregated convection as an example Aggregated convection as an example of self-organized criticality (SOC)of self-organized criticality (SOC)
• Implications for climateImplications for climate• Implications for incidence of tropical Implications for incidence of tropical
cyclonescyclones• Tropical cyclone effects on the Tropical cyclone effects on the
meridional overturning circulationmeridional overturning circulation
Water vapor and convection are highly Water vapor and convection are highly inhomogeneousinhomogeneous
Frequency histogram of rawindsonde relative humidities from 1600 ascents at the tropical Pacific islands of Yap, Koror, Ponape and Majuro, January-May, 1994-95. Spencer and Braswell, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1997.
What controls the distribution of What controls the distribution of water vapor and precipitation?water vapor and precipitation?
A critical problem in climate!A critical problem in climate!
A Partial List of Factors:A Partial List of Factors:
• Convective lofting of water
• Cloud and rain microphysics
• Subsidence
• Large-scale advection
Here we will consider the idealized problem of Here we will consider the idealized problem of what determines the distribution of humidity what determines the distribution of humidity
in radiative-convective equilibrium states.in radiative-convective equilibrium states.
• Generally derided as irrelevant to the real world (yet not a bad approximation to warm pool regions)
• Need to understand “simple” problems first• There are some surprises even in this “simple”
problem
Radiative-Moist Convective Radiative-Moist Convective EquilibriumEquilibrium
Radiative-Moist Convective EquilibriumRadiative-Moist Convective Equilibrium
Numerical Simulations of RC Numerical Simulations of RC EquilibriumEquilibrium
Vertically integrated water Vertically integrated water vapor at 4 daysvapor at 4 days
(Nolan et al., QJRMS, (Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007)2007)
Sensitivity of relative humidity to cloud microphysics in radiative-Sensitivity of relative humidity to cloud microphysics in radiative-convective equilibrium (25 mb grid spacing, fixed SST)convective equilibrium (25 mb grid spacing, fixed SST)
Climate Sensitivity of Relative Humidity in Radiative-Climate Sensitivity of Relative Humidity in Radiative-Convective EquilibriumConvective Equilibrium
Understanding Free Tropospheric Humidity Influences Understanding Free Tropospheric Humidity Influences on Convection through Quasi-Equilibrium (QE) on Convection through Quasi-Equilibrium (QE)
ConceptsConceptsBoundary Layer QE (Raymond, 1995):
*0
*| |b
k b d e b m
hhH H C h h M w h h
t t
V
Moist static energyMoist static energy
PBL moist static energyPBL moist static energy
p vh c T L q gz
: 0
:
b
u d e
hBLQE
tMass Continuity w M M w
*0| | b
u kb m
h hM w C
h h
V
Smaller hm gives smaller Mu
Only yields cloud base mass flux!
large-scale
Note: Under global warming, increases slowly, while increases rapidly
*0| |k bC V h h b mh h
Temperature tendency of free atmosphere:Temperature tendency of free atmosphere:
* d du d rad
m
shM M w Q
t z
Need closure for Md:
1d p u
p
M M
precipitation efficiency
* d dp u rad
m
shM w Q
t z
Summary of BLQESummary of BLQEFree troposphere moisture affects convection Free troposphere moisture affects convection
by:by:
• Changing cloud base mass fluxChanging cloud base mass flux: Fewer downdrafts needed to balance surface fluxes and convergence when free troposphere is dry
• Affecting fraction of condensed water that Affecting fraction of condensed water that reaches surface: reaches surface: Precipitation efficiency is a function of humidity. Low humidity can reduce precipitation through entrainment and/or increased evaporation of precipitation
All of the preceding assumes that moist convection is statistically
homogeneous if lower boundary condition is constant.
Is this true?
Numerical simulations of RC equilibrium show that, Numerical simulations of RC equilibrium show that, under some conditions, moist convection self-under some conditions, moist convection self-
aggregates aggregates
Day 10 Day 50
From Bretherton et al. (2005)
Vertically integrated water vapor at 4 (a), 6 (b), 8 (c), and 10 (d) Vertically integrated water vapor at 4 (a), 6 (b), 8 (c), and 10 (d) daysdays
(Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007)(Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007)
Effect of Self-Effect of Self-Aggregation on Aggregation on
HumidityHumidity
(Bretherton et al. , 2005)
Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007
Empirical Necessary Conditions for Self-Empirical Necessary Conditions for Self-Aggregation Aggregation (after Held et al., 1993; Bretherton et al.,
2005; Nolan et al.; 2007)
• Small vertical shear of horizontal wind• Interaction of radiation with clouds and/or
water vapor• Feedback of convective downdraft surface
winds on surface fluxes• Sufficiently high surface temperature
HypothesisHypothesis
• At high temperature, convection self-aggregates
• →Horizontally averaged humidity drops dramatically
• →Reduced greenhouse effect cools system• →Convection disaggregates• →Humidity increases, system warms• →System wants to be near phase transition to
aggregated state
Recipe for Self-Organized CriticalityRecipe for Self-Organized Criticality(First proposed by David Neelin, but by different (First proposed by David Neelin, but by different
mechanism)mechanism)
• System should reside near critical threshold for self-aggregation
• Convective cluster size should follow power law distribution
Toy ModelToy Model
PropertiesProperties• PBL quasi-equilibrium enforced• Bulk aerodynamic surface fluxes with convective gustiness• Albedo and emissivity simple weighted average of clear
and cloudy regions• Water vapor-dependent clear sky emissivity• Horizontally uniform temperature but variable moist static
energy (i.e. water vapor) at mid-level• Vertical motion calculated to enforce zero horizontal
temperature gradient• PBL moist static energy adjusted to yield zero domain-
averaged vertical motion• Slow horizontal diffusion of moisture at mid-level
ResultsResultsSelf-Aggregation Occurs for:Self-Aggregation Occurs for:
• Small or negative gross moist stability• Sufficiently large feedback between
convective gustiness and surface enthalpy fluxes
• Sufficiently high surface temperature
Example:Example:
Summary of Toy Model ResultsSummary of Toy Model Results• Self-aggregation driven by convective
gustiness at high temperature• No self-aggregation at low temperature• Aggregated state is much drier at mid levels• System tends towards self-organized criticality
(SOC)• Climate sensitivity of SOC state much lower
(0.04 K/Wm-2) than sensitivity of uniform convection (0.2 K/Wm-2)
Implications for Tropical Cyclones Implications for Tropical Cyclones and Climateand Climate
Tracks of all tropical cyclones, 1985-2005Tracks of all tropical cyclones, 1985-2005
Source: Wikipedia
Global TC Frequency, 1970-2006Global TC Frequency, 1970-2006
Data Sources: NOAA/TPC and NAVY/JTWC
Better Intensity Metric:Better Intensity Metric:
The Power Dissipation IndexThe Power Dissipation Index
0
3maxPDI V dt
A measure of the total frictional dissipation of kinetic energy in the A measure of the total frictional dissipation of kinetic energy in the hurricane boundary layer over the lifetime of the stormhurricane boundary layer over the lifetime of the storm
Atlantic Storm Maximum Power DissipationAtlantic Storm Maximum Power Dissipation(Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter)
Po
wer
Dis
sip
atio
n In
dex
(P
DI)
Years included: 1870-2006
Data Source: NOAA/TPC
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power DissipationStorm Max Power Dissipation
(Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter)
Sca
led
Tem
per
atu
re
Po
wer
Dis
sip
atio
n In
dex
(P
DI)
Years included: 1870-2006
Data Sources: NOAA/TPC, UKMO/HADSST1
Feedback of Global Tropical Feedback of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity on the Climate Cyclone Activity on the Climate
SystemSystem
Strong Mixing of Upper Ocean
Direct mixing by tropical cyclones
Source: Rob Korty, CalTech
Emanuel (2001) estimated global rate of heat input as
1.4 X 1015 Watts
TC Mixing May Induce Much or Most of the Observed Poleward Heat Flux by the Oceans
Trenberth and Caron, 2001Trenberth and Caron, 2001
TC-Mixing may be Crucial for High-Latitude Warmth and Low-Latitude Moderation During Warm Climates,
such as that of the Eocene
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Estimating Tropical Cyclone Activity in Different ClimatesActivity in Different Climates
Our ApproachOur Approach• Step 1: Seed each ocean basin with a very large
number of weak, randomly located cyclones
• Step 2: Cyclones are assumed to move with the large scale atmospheric flow in which they are embedded
• Step 3: Run a coupled, ocean-atmosphere computer model for each cyclone, and note how many achieve at least tropical storm strength
• Step 4: Using the small fraction of surviving events, determine storm statistics.
Track:Track:
850 2501 ,track V V V V
Empirically determined constants:
0.8, 10 ,u ms
12.5v ms
Example: 200 Synthetic TracksExample: 200 Synthetic Tracks
Present Climate: Spatial Distribution of Present Climate: Spatial Distribution of Genesis PointsGenesis Points
Observed
Synthetic
CalibrationCalibration
• Absolute genesis frequency calibrated to Absolute genesis frequency calibrated to North Atlantic during the period 1980-2005North Atlantic during the period 1980-2005
Genesis ratesGenesis rates
Downscale Global Eocene Downscale Global Eocene Simulations using CAM3 with Simulations using CAM3 with
Boundary Conditions Derived from Boundary Conditions Derived from Paleoclimate DataPaleoclimate Data(with Matt Huber)(with Matt Huber)
Global Annual Exceedence Frequency
300 Eocene Events300 Eocene Events
Incorporating Tropical Cyclone and Incorporating Tropical Cyclone and Convection Feedbacks in a Toy Convection Feedbacks in a Toy
ModelModel
As a first step toward understanding how this new picture of the thermohaline circulation might affect climate, we built a very simple two-column climate model that incorporates this effect plus the greenhouse effect and atmospheric heat transport. We ran this model until a steady state was achieved.(Emanuel, JGR, 2002)
Atmospheric FluxesAtmospheric Fluxes
• Convective fluxes determined so as to keep lapse rate moist adiabatic (Where profile is otherwise unstable); upper atmospheric layer dries out when convection is absent
• Strength of circulation determined so as to keep meridional temperature gradient at critical value
Ocean FluxOcean Flux
• Proportional to difference in ocean temperature between the two boxes
• Also proportional to a measure of hurricane activity in the tropical box
ResultsResults
For this particular choice of parameters, the model produces three overlapping climate regimes: hot, moderate and cold, as shown in this plot of polar air temperature.
The heavy lines show the poleward heat transport by the atmosphere, while the thin lines show the oceanic heat transport.
This graph shows a measure of hurricane activity in the three regimes.
Climate Manifold
Cold
Moderate
Hot
Atmospheric Circulation
Strong
Moderate
Monsoonal
Ocean Heat Flux
Weak or absent
Moderate
Very large
Pole-to-Equator s Gradient
Critical
Critical
Subcritical
Tropical Cyclone Activity
None
Moderate
High
Bottom Water
Temperature
Cold
Cold
Warm
Atmospheric CO2 Content
Low
Modest
Large
Tropical Convection
Shallow
Deep
Deep
Greenhouse Trapping
Small
Small to Moderate
Large
Implied Climate Regime
Characteristics
SST: elevated mixing to 360 meters – uniform SST: elevated mixing to 360 meters – uniform
10 x CO2 in both experimentsSource: Rob Korty, CalTech
Interactive TC-Mixing Moderates Tropical Warming and Interactive TC-Mixing Moderates Tropical Warming and Amplifies High-Latitude Warming in Coupled Climate ModelsAmplifies High-Latitude Warming in Coupled Climate Models
SummarySummary• Interaction between climate state and moist Interaction between climate state and moist
convection still not well understoodconvection still not well understood• At low values of wind shear, moist convection At low values of wind shear, moist convection
may self-aggregate when temperature is may self-aggregate when temperature is sufficiently highsufficiently high
• Aggregation leads to drier atmosphere, which Aggregation leads to drier atmosphere, which in turn cools systemin turn cools system
• System tends to self-organized critical state, System tends to self-organized critical state, which appears to be less sensitive to climate which appears to be less sensitive to climate forcingforcing
• Tropical cyclones are an example of organized Tropical cyclones are an example of organized convection and may also play a fundamental convection and may also play a fundamental role in driving the ocean’s meridional role in driving the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation overturning circulation
• Combination of TC-ocean feedback and moist Combination of TC-ocean feedback and moist convection may lead to hysteresis and multiple convection may lead to hysteresis and multiple equilibria of climateequilibria of climate
• Self-aggregation of convection and TC-ocean Self-aggregation of convection and TC-ocean feedback are poorly represented in or entirely feedback are poorly represented in or entirely missing from today’s GCMs missing from today’s GCMs
Vertical vorticity at z=2.2 km at days 11 (a), 12 (b) 13 (c) and 14 (d)
Which external parameters determine Which external parameters determine characteristic updraft speeds (and CAPE) in characteristic updraft speeds (and CAPE) in
radiative-convective equilibrium?radiative-convective equilibrium?
Answer: Answer: kinematic surface tension of water
g acceleration of gravity
Results of numerical simulations with a cloud-permitting model, Parodi and Emanuel (2006)
Daily-Mean Precipitation Versus Column-Relative HumidityDaily-Mean Precipitation Versus Column-Relative Humidity
Bretherton, Peters, and Back, 2004
Seasonal CyclesSeasonal Cycles
AtlanticAtlantic
Cumulative Distribution of Storm Lifetime Peak Cumulative Distribution of Storm Lifetime Peak Wind Speed, with Sample of 2946Wind Speed, with Sample of 2946 Synthetic Synthetic
TracksTracks
Captures effects of regional climate Captures effects of regional climate phenomena (e.g. ENSO, AMM)phenomena (e.g. ENSO, AMM)