Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)

8/7/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)

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AGRI MA

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21st Mar - 26th Mar 2011

“ S P I C E S S U R G E S O N E X T E N D E D B U Y I N G ”

W e e k l y R e p o r t

AG RI MA RK ET



Daily Chart

JEERA (APR )

JEERA RISES ON EXTENDED BUYINGW e e k l y R e p o r t

The Jeera extended the gains on active buying last

week. Futures started the week on positive note on

fresh buying. However, prices took sharp corrections

on profit selling as overall trend has not changed at

spot yet. Nonetheless, prices gain resumed the

upside during the end and prices ended on positive

note. The Jeera April futures are projected to

continue the gains on extended fresh buying next

week. Reports of stockiest buying amid some export

inquires may support the prices. However, rising

arrivals might limit the gains later in the week. Daily

arrivals at spot market of Unjha were around

23,000-24,000 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.) Rising

arrivals at spot market are keeping the prices under

pressure. As per trade sources, export demand

might pick up in coming days as overall stock of

Jeera is declining on international front. As per data

released by Spices board, Jeera exports during April-

January 2010-11 stood around 26,000 tons down

by 36% compared to same period last year. Though

overall production forecast is down by 10-25% Y/Y

still poor export demand from gulf countries are

likely to weigh on prices in short term. According to

derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open

interest all are rising. Market is attracting larger

numbers of traders willing to open positions from

the long side and hold them. Traders are more

confident that prices will continue to climb in favor

of a working long.

Last week Jeera did our target of 17000

above the level of 16650 and even closed

above it. Last week Jeera remained bullish

throughout the week and was not

sustaining at lower levels. For the next

week Jeera has resistance at 17500 and

support at 16900.

Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one

should use the strategy of sell on higher

levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains

below the level of 15900 then we can

expect the level of 15600, and if it sustains

above 16420 then we can see the level of

16700.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Ÿ Fresh buyingŸ Strong demand

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS

MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3 18100

R2 17010

R1 16530

PP 15910

S1 15430

S2 15820

S3 13720

C A P I T A L V I A G L O B A L R E S E A R C H L I M I T E Dw w w . c a p i t a l v i a . c o m 2



Daily Chart

GUARSEED (APR )

GUARSEED RISES ON STRONG BUYINGW e e k l y R e p o r t

The Guar seed and gum futures rallied to hit 4%

intraday upper limit on Thursday on strong buying

interest last week. Limited supply of the produce at

major spot markets and strong demand from end-

users added bullish sentiment to the market. Market

moved higher on expectation of further removal in

additional margin. A rally in Crude oil prices also

gave underlying support to the Guar market as gum

is used in oil exploration. The Guar seed and Guar

gum futures are forecast to trade on a positive note

next week on follow through buying. Traders and

investors are buying futures anticipating revival in

demand in the near-term. Limited supply of the

produce in major spot markets is likely to push up

the futures prices. The Guar seed requirement from

the exporters and the millers has almost met for the

current year. As per the APEDA sources Guar gum

exports during the April-November 2010 surged by

139% to `1,446 crore from `603 crore in the

previous fiscal. Spot markets are likely to show

positive trend on active buying interest from

stockists and millers. Derivative analysis (rise in price,

volume and open interest) is suggesting a positive

trend for the next week.

Last week Guarseed did our target of 2810

above the level of 2760 and even closed

above it. Last week Guarseed was in a

bullish trend and even closed near to its

weekly high. For the next week Guarseed

has resistance at 3020 and support at

2840.

For next week in Guar seed traders should

go for buying at lower levels strategy, if

Guar seed sustains above the level of 3020

we can see the level of 3090, and below

2840 it can touch the level of 2775.


Ÿ Strong buyingŸ Increased demand


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3 3441

R2 3146

R1 3044

PP 2851

S1 2749

S2 2556

S3 2261




Daily Chart

SOYABEAN (APR )

SOYBEAN SLIGHTLY FALL ON SELLING PRESSUREW e e k l y R e p o r t

NCDEX April Soybean futures fell sharply in the

beginning of the week due to huge losses in

overseas market. NCDEX April Soybean prices

opened at Rs 2306 a quintal and touched a low of Rs

2270.50/quintal, then bounced back in tandem

with overseas market as short covering and Soybean

futures at e-CBOT also provided support to the bulls

an hour before closing the market, There is news

that China's Soybean acreage may fall 11% this year

as compared to last year due to higher sowing

a c r e a g e o f c o t t o n t h i s y e a r .

USDA's Monthly supply & demand Report: The US

Department of Agriculture revised 2010-11 global

Soybean output estimate to 258.4 million tonnes,

up by 2.3 million tonnes from its February estimateof 256.10 million tonnes. Brazil's soy crop output at

a record 70.0 million tonnes , up by 1.5 mln tn from

the February estimate, due to timely rains in the

producing regions of the country. It has raised

output estimate for China as well. Argentina's soy

output has been kept unchanged at 49.5 million

tonnes. Estimate of Soybean carryover stock in the

US was also kept unchanged at 3.82 million tonnes.

The USDA raised global 2010-11 oilseeds

production estimate by 2.4 million tonnes from the

February projection to 444.2 million tonnes.

Oilseeds carryover stocks are now seen at 58.33

million tonnes, marginally up from 58.21 mln tn in

February.

Last week Soybean did our target of 2280

below the level of 2330 but did not

sustained below it and we saw good

buying coming at lower levels in the later

part of the week. For the next week

Soybean has resistance at 2440 and

support at 2270.

Soybean is moving in a downward channel

on charts and one should look for selling

opportunities at higher levels, if Soybean

sustains below the level of 2270 we can

see the level of 2210, and on the upside if it

sustains above the level of 2440 we can see

Soybean at 2485 level.


Ÿ Selling pressureŸ Weak overseas market


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3 2616

R2 2472

R1 2421

PP 2328

S1 2277

S2 2184

S3 2040




Daily Chart

CHANA (APR )

CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON STRONG BUYINGW e e k l y R e p o r t

The Chana futures staged a strong rally last week

rebounding from its previous weakness on

emergence of fresh buying, Positive trend in the spot

market gave underlying support to the futures

market. With the increasing inflow of the produce,

stockists have started procuring and stocking Chana

at lower levels. Removal of 2% sales tax by

Rajasthan government also gave support to the

market. The rise in volume and open interest is

indicating strong buying interest. The Chana futures

are forecast to trade on a positive note on follow

through buying. Improvement in demand from

traders and stockists at lower level is likely to render

support to the futures market. Stockists and traders

are procuring Chana from the spot market as theprices are at very comfortable level and markets are

witnessing inflow of good quality produce. Full

swing arrivals from Rajasthan are expected across

the spot markets from April. The exemption of sales

tax of 2% levied on Chana in Rajasthan might

further attract physical market players in the near

term. The kantewala variety arrivals from across M.P

are in full swing and quality which is of good quality

also.

Last week Chana was in a very tight range

and was not sustaining at lower levels and

we saw buying coming at lower levels, the

price is facing support at 2490 and is not

able to sustain below the psychological

level of 2500. For the next week Chana has

resistance at 2580 and support at 2490.

Overall trend of Chana is bearish and one

should go for selling at higher levels

strategy in it. For the coming week if

Chana sustains below 2490 level we can

see it at 2450 and above 2580 we can

expect the level of 2620.


Ÿ Fresh buyingŸ Improvement in demand


MARKET OVERVIEW

STRATEGY

Script Levels

R3 2701

R2 2616

R1 2569

PP 2531

S1 2484

S2 2246

S3 2361




WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPrevious

CloseOpen LowHigh Close

Qty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)*

* Turnover Till Friday

NCDEXJEERAUNJHA 20-APR-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 16048 15952 1572016575 16041 57960 -7 17502 83,710.76

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-APR-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 10470 10304 986010600 9900 25275 -570 7580 23,218.14

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2706 2715 27022953 2942 1433700 236 165300 337,167.29

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 7624 7720 76408500 8460 116025 25495836 81,401.82

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2520 2522 24942558 2528 438020 8 77340 97,222.33

SoybeanSYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 RS/QUINTAL 2363.5 2349.5 2270.52379 2370 487500 6.5 205950 105,549.67

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 614.9 611.65 595621 620.7 747790 5.8 90460 425,769.01

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 2751 2743 26652772 2766 346350 15 63340 86,208.01

COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-APR-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1178 1178 11531235 1234 323120 56 83160 29,981.09

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 996 994.5 994.51017 1006 19880 10 8870 4,468.24

POTATO NCDEX Potato RS/QUINTAL 622.6 625 532.8625 540 146130 -82.6 16845 7,338.64

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1163.6 1155 11451194.5 1188.6 18098 25 2457 37,260.57

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-APR-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1179.4 1177 11631179 1166.6 7770 -12.8 9330 800.61

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAR-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1157.5 1162 1151.91305.8 1298.3 18967 140.8 6344 83529.91CARDAMOM MCX 15- APR -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1108.7 1115 1076.71153 1137.2 6355 28.5 1578 6792.21

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-APR-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 22821 22795 2228623738 23478 42226 657 7504 89,493.93

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 16041 -0.04

NCDEX PEPPER 23478 2.88

NCDEX TURMERIC 9900 -5.44

NCDEX GUARSEED 2942 8.72

NCDEX GUARGUM 8460 10.97

NCDEX CHANA 2528 0.32

NCDEX SOYBEAN 2370 0.28

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 620.7 0.94

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2766 0.55

NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1234 4.75

NCDEX GUR 1006 1.00

NCDEX POTATO 540 -13.27

NCDEX KAPAS 1188.6 2.15

NCDEX WHEAT 1166.6 -1.09

NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1298.3 12.16

NCDEX CARDAMOM 1137.2 2.57

W e e k l y R e p o r t


20-APR-11



Weekly Pivots

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Weekly Gainers

MENTHA OIL 31-MAR-11 1298.3 12.16

GUARGUM 20-APR-11 8460 10.97

Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

POTATO 20-APR-11 540 -13.27

WHEAT 20-APR-11 1166.6 -1.09

TURMERIC 20-APR-11 9900 -5.44

JEERA (APR) 17822.00 16967.00 16504.00 16112.00 15649.00 15257.00 14402.00

PEPPER (APR) 26071.33 24619.33 24048.67 23167.33 22596.67 21715.33 20263.33

TURMERIC (APR) 11600.00 10860.00 10380.00 10120.00 9640.00 9380.00 8640.00

GUARSEED (APR) 3367.67 3116.67 3029.33 2865.67 2778.33 2614.67 2363.67

GUARSGUM (APR) 9920.00 9060.00 8760.00 8200.00 7900.00 7340.00 6480.00

CHANA (APR) 2654.67 2590.67 2559.33 2526.67 2495.33 2462.67 2398.67

SOYBEAN (APR) 2556.83 2448.33 2409.17 2339.83 2300.67 2231.33 2122.83

REFINED SOYA OIL (APR) 664.23 638.23 629.47 612.23 603.47 586.23 560.23

MUSTARD (APR) 2948.33 2841.33 2803.67 2734.33 2696.67 2627.33 2520.33

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (APR) 1371.33 1289.33 1261.67 1207.33 1179.67 1125.33 1043.33

GUR (JUL) 1050.83 1028.33 1017.17 1005.83 994.67 983.33 960.83

POTATO (APR) 750.33 658.13 599.07 565.93 506.87 473.73 381.53KAPAS (APR) 1275.03 1225.53 1207.07 1176.03 1157.57 1126.53 1077.03

MENTHA OIL (MAR) 1559.80 1405.90 1352.10 1252.00 1198.20 1098.10 944.20

CARDAMOM (APR) 1274.90 1198.60 1167.90 1122.30 1091.60 1046.00 969.70

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATEW e e k l y R e p o r t

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GUARSEED 20-APR-11 2942 8.72

Documents

Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)