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8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
1/10
WEEKLYREPORTS
Global Research Limited
Where Market Can MoveNext Week...
A G R I
Spices Gain onShort Covering !
| 27th Dec 2010 - 01st Jan 2011
Spices Gain onShort Covering !
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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Weekly Reports
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eport
2
Technical Analysis
JEERA
Fundamental Overview
Reasons for MovementJEERA TRADES UP ON REDUCED ARRIVALS
hort coverings by the market participants led prices to end
positively at end of the week. Dull demand from the overseas and
Sdomestic will keep prices range bound with negative bias in the
coming weeks. Any disturbances in weather in Jeera growing areas
particularly Gujarat and Rajasthan will however provide support to the
prices in the short term. Too much cold and rains in the growing areas
will spoil the standing crop. In medium to long term (January onwards),
Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and
domestic buyers and sowing progress in the major Jeera growing areas
particularly Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jeera prices will also take cues from
the price parity of major origins particularly Syria and Turkey in the
international market. In the short term (till December), trend will depend
on Jeera price parity of various origins in international market and
stocks of Jeera with local stockists. In the medium to long term
(January onwards) prices are likely to take cues from sowing progress
in India and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers.ember
2010 against $2.93 per kg quoted in the same period last year.
Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots
Script Levels
R3 14752
R2 14368R1 14178
PP 13984
S1 13794
S2 13600
S3 13216Figure:1
Jeera
Demand from the overseasSowing progress in India
Jeera remained in consolidation forthe entire previous week and was
neither sustaining at higher levels norat lower and we saw good sellingpressure above the level of 14000.For the next week Jeera hasresistance at 14330 and support at13700.
Market Overview
Jeera is in a consolidation phaseand one should use the strategy of
selling on higher levels. If in thecoming week Jeera sustains belowthe level of 13700 then we canexpect the level of 13500, and if itsustains above 14330 we can seethe level of 14540.
Strategy
7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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eport
GUARSEED
3
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Overview
Reasons for MovementGUAR DECLINES ON INCREASED ARRIVALS
rawling demand from the overseas for Guar and its products at
higher levels and improved arrivals weighed on the prices yesterday.
CFurther, increase in the arrivals will cap resist prices from trading
higher. Arrivals, which stands at around 125-130 lakh bags in the current
season is much higher as compared to last year. Exports of Guar and its by
product which stood at around 2.10 lakh tonnes during the previous year is
expected to rise in the current fiscal to around 2.6-2.8 lakh tonnes. A
reviving world economy and a preference shift to eco-friendly substitutes
has seen a surge in demand for Indian Guar gum from oil and gas
companies that could push exports up 22 percent in 2010/11. Spread
between January and February contract is Rs.43/qtl as compared to
Rs.40/qtl the previous day. In the intraday Guar prices are expected to
trade bearish due to improved arrivals and weak demand for Guar and its
products. However, in the short term (1-2 week), prices may be determined
by the arrivals in the domestic market. In the medium term trend would
depend on the pace of arrivals, the demand from the overseas markets andthe movement of Indian Rupee against US dollar.
Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots
Script Levels
R3 2818
R2 2642
R1 2561
PP 2466
S1 2385
S2 2290
S3 2114Figure:1
Jeera
Higher ArrivalsSluggish demand
Last week Guarseed was initiallybullish for the first three days but inthe later part of the week we sawprofit booking coming at higherlevels. For the next week resistancein Guar seed is found at 2625 andsupport at 2365.
Market Overview
For next week in Guar seed tradersshould go for buying at lower levelsstrategy, if Guar seed sustainsabove the level of 2625 we can seethe level of 2675, and below 2365 itcan touch the level of 2320.
Strategy
7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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eport
SOYABEAN
4
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Overview
Reasons for MovementSOYBEAN ZOOMS ON GLOBAL CUES
CDEX January Soybean futures closed higher on 3rd
consecutive day, tracking firm global cues on concern of dry
Nweather in Argentina and strike at Soybean plants in Argentinaa l s o a d d e d b u l l i s h m a r k e t s e n t i m e n t s .CBOT March Soybean futures ended higher at $ 13.60/bushels on
Thursday, up 20 cents/bushel as compared to previous close.
CBOT March Soybean meal futures ended at $ 363.40/ton on
Thursday, up $7/tonnes as compared to previous close. Spread
between NCDEX January and February contract is Rs 65.00 against
previous day of Rs 63.50 per 100 Kg. For Intraday, Soybean prices are
expected to trade slightly higher on improved demand from solvent
extractors and lower production estimates in Argentina as dry weather
concern also in favour of bulls.Supply Demand Estimates reportscheduled for release at 7 PM IST.
Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots
Script Levels
R3 2398
R2 2330
R1 2294
PP 2262
S1 2226
S2 2194
S3 2126Figure:1
Jeera
Improved demandL o w e r p r o d u c t i o nestimates
Last week Soybean was in adownward consolidation phase andwas not sustaining at higher levelsbut we saw some short coveringcoming on the last day of the week.For the next week Soybean hasresistance at 2365 and support at2195.
Market Overview
Soybean is in a consolidation phaseon charts and one should look forselling opportunities at higherlevels, if Soybean sustains belowthe level of 2195 we can see thelevel of 2150, and on the up side if itsustains above the level of 2365 wecan see Soybean at 2400 level.
Strategy
7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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eport
CHANA
5
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Overview
CHANA TUMBLES ON SUBDUED DEMAND
ong liquidation by the market participants led prices to end
negatively yesterday. Revival of demand from the local stockists
Land reports of crop damage in A.P and Karnataka may provide
support to the prices in the short term. However, positive reports on
sowing progress will cap the upside. Steep decline in Australia chick
pea production has delayed the shipments thereby supporting Chana
prices at the domestic market. Given the current scenario, overall
acreage is still expected higher due to increased MSP and better soil
moisture level. Thus long term trend would depend on the weather
conditions and thereby the production estimates. Spread between
January and February contract is Rs.14/qtl as compared to Rs.1/qtl
yesterday. In the intraday prices may trade with positive bias due to
demand from the local stockists. In the short to medium term (one
month), Price gains may be capped due to rising arrivals of Kharif
pulses. Long term trend in Chana futures may depend on the reports
sowing of Rabi Pulses which is presently expected to be higher due to
increase in MSP of Pulse. Also, weather during the crop development
period may be crucial for the deciding the further trend of Chana
futures.
Daily Chart
Last week in Chana we saw buyingcoming at lower levels in the initialstages of the week but good profitbooking was seen on Saturday and iterased most of the previous gains.For the coming week Chana hasresistance at 2595 and support at2500.
Market Overview
Overall trend of Chana is ofconsolidation and one should go forselling at higher levels strategy in it.For the coming week if Chanasustains below 2500 level we cansee it at 2465 and above 2595 wecan expect the level of 2620.
Strategy
Reasons for Movement
Weekly Pivots
Script Levels
R3 2655
R2 2598
R1 2563
PP 2541
S1 2506
S2 2484
S3 2427Figure:1
Jeera
Positive reports on sowingprogress
Revival of demand
7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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Symbol Exch-ange
ExpiryDate
CommodityName
Price Unit PreviousClose
Open LowHigh Close Qty.Traded
Net OpenInterest
WeeklyTurnOver(Rs. in Lakhs)
JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-JAN-11 JEERA RS/QUINTAL 14000 14034 1377014235 14030 23070 30 11511 35,306.69
Weekly Market Update
PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-JAN-11 PEPPER RS/QUINTAL 22158 22130 2136022192 22025 31595 -133 10837 56,519.45
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-Apr- 11 TURMERIC RS/QUINTAL 9946 9920 992010840 10610 24025 664 5450 18,650.71
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUARSEED RS/QUINTAL 2480 2467 23812503 2415 844420 -65 168190 151,997.43
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUARGUM RS/QUINTAL 6419 6381 61306470 6225 66505 16590-194 31,966.17
CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 CHANA RS/QUINTAL 2532 2528 25132590 2525 395730 -7 111330 82,133.72
SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 SOYBEAN RS/QUINTAL 2256.5 2260 22382319 2311 379610 54.5 166850 67,909.75
SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 SOY OILREFINED
RS/10KGS 595 594 590.2608.9 607.9 442150 12.9 123550 253,253.14
RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 RAPE MUS-TARD SEED
RS/20KGS 563.15 563 557568 567.7 258380 4.55 122160 54,414.93
COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-JAN-11 COTTONSEEDOILCAKE
RS/QUINTAL 1013 1014 9981026 1001 201240 -12 80290 16,214.48
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JAN-11 GUR RS/40KGS 979 982 977.51002 998 34470 19 11350 6,723.20
POTATO NCDEX 18- Mar -11 POTATO RS/QUINTAL 577.6 581 576.6621.2 613.9 60705 36.3 22005 1,828.01
KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-Apr- 11 KAPAS RS./20KG 715.9 719 717745.5 730.1 20897 14.2 6288 27,476.43
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-JAN-11 WHEAT RS/QUINTAL 1311.6 1312 13121334 1332.4 14330 20.8 9690 1,625.34
MENTHA OIL MCX 31-DEC-10 MENTHA OIL RS/KG 1079.9 1084.9 1076.21142.5 1116.2 29634 36.3 3537 116937.21
CARDAMOM MCX 15- Jan -11 CARDAMOM RS/KG 1380.2 1384.9 13701547 1525 14336 144.8 1436 20821.22
7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011
*
* Turnover till Thursday
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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Weekly Market Update
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE
NCDEX JEERA
NCDEX PEPPER
NCDEX TURMERIC
NCDEX GUARSEED
NCDEX GUARGUM
NCDEX CHANA
NCDEX SOYBEAN
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED
NCDEX COTTONSEED OILCAKE
NCDEX GUR
NCDEX POTATO
NCDEX KAPAS
NCDEX WHEAT
NCDEX MENTHA OIL
NCDEX CARDAMOM
14030
22025
10610
2415
6225
2525
2311
607.9
567.7
1001
998
613.9
730.1
1332.4
1116.2
1525
0.21
-0.60
6.68
-2.62
-3.02
-0.28
2.42
2.17
0.81
-1.18
1.94
6.28
1.98
1.59
3.36
10.49
Weekly Gainers
COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE
CARDAMOM
TURMERIC
POTATO
15-MAR-11
20-APR- 11
18-MAR-11
1525
10610
613.9
10.49
6.68
6.28
Weekly Losers
COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE
GUARGUM
GUARSEED
20-JAN-11
20-JAN-11
6225
2415
-3.02
-2.62
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE 20-JAN-11 1001 -1.18
7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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Weekly Pivots
JEERA(JAN)
Scripts R3
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R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
PEPPER(JAN)
TURMERIC(APR)
GUARSEED(JAN)
GUARSGUM(JAN)
CHANA(JAN)
SOYBEAN(JAN)
REFINED SOYA OIL(JAN)
MUSTARD(JAN)
COTTONSEEDOIL CAKE (JAN)
GUR(JAN)
POTATO(MAR)
KAPAS
(APR)
MENTHA OIL(DEC)
CARDAMOM(JAN)
14941.67 14476.67 14253.33 14011.67 13788.33 13546.67 13081.67
23523.00 22691.00 22358.00 21859.00 21526.00 21027.00 20195.00
12296.67 11376.67 10993.33 10456.67 10073.33 9536.67 8616.67
2918.00 2696.00 2548.00 2474.00 2326.00 2252.00 2030.00
6955.00 6615.00 6420.00 6275.00 6080.00 5935.00 5595.00
2696.67 2619.67 2572.33 2542.67 2495.33 2465.67 2388.67
2451.33 2370.33 2340.67 2289.33 2259.67 2208.33 2127.33
639.73 621.03 614.47 602.33 595.77 583.63 564.93
586.23 575.23 571.47 564.23 560.47 553.23 542.23
1064.33 1036.33 1018.67 1008.33 990.67 980.33 952.33
1041.50 1017.00 1007.50 992.50 983.00 968.00 943.50
693.10 648.50 631.20 603.90 586.60 559.30 514.70
787.87 759.37 744.73 730.87 716.23 702.37 673.87
1244.23 1177.93 1147.07 1111.63 1080.77 1045.33 979.03
1834.67 1657.67 1591.33 1480.67 1414.33 1303.67 1126.67
7th Dec 2010- 01st Jan 2011
8/8/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (27th - 31st December - 2010)
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Disclaimer
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